I play an awful lot of FF, and have been doing so for a quarter-century now, but I can say with genuine sincerity that there is
nothing quite like an ABLC draft.
1.20 - Todd Gurley, RB11 LAR
It's rare to be able to draft someone with #1 potential at pick 20. It's even more rare to be able to draft last year's *actual* #1 at pick 20. Injury concerns? It's the NFL. Unless you're Jordan Reed or Sammy Watkins, they shouldn't trump talent. Very high playoff potential. Also considered: none.
2.13 - Melvin Gordon, RB19 LAC
Not much has changed on the contract front since I made this pick two weeks ago, but I don't regret the pick (not yet, at least). This may be the best chance Gordon or the Chargers ever have to win a SB, and they both realize that. Going RB-RB is gonna leave some big holes elsewhere, but it's easier to justify when the two RBs are among the league's top 5 talents
and offenses. High playoff potential. Also considered: C. Kupp.
3.20 - Vance McDonald, TE9 PIT
Gonna have to punt one position. Should it be QB or TE? To me, the choice is the former (read: much deeper). The notion of the Steelers' "vacated targets" is a bit hand-wavy when they threw nearly 50 more passes then any other squad. Still, a 32-teamer is all about upside, and if there's one name at the position with the talent to make a Kittle-esque leap this season, it's McDonald. Moderate to high playoff potential. Also considered: C. Newton, R. Wilson.
4.13 - Dante Pettis, WR43 SFO
About as good as you can hope for when you wait until outside the top 100 for a WR1. Pettis acquitted himself well as a rookie catching passes from the likes of Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard*; despite a slow August he should do better this time around with Garoppolo. Gets the nod over Shepard for the likely better offense. Also considered: S. Shepard.
* - Am I the only one out there who immediately renamed their fantasy team "See Jay Beat Hard" after Week 3 last season? Ummm, I am? Oh.
5.20 - 49ers (Jimmy Garoppolo), TMQB23 SFO
Last year I reached from a similar position in the ABLC draft to grab Cousins in the early 2nd to stack with my first-rounder, Diggs. Happily, my QB/WR1 stack this year comes at a far lower price point. Garoppolo should be serviceable at worst, and may even keep pace with names like Prescott at a cost several dozen picks lower. Moderate playoff potential. Also considered: none.
6.13 - Ka'imi Fairbairn, PK6 HOU
Still have a clear need at WR, but none of the names on the board here stand out. Decided to snag a top-tier option on a good offense instead of playing kicker chicken in the 8th-9th round. In retrospect, should have picked a WR out of a hat and settled for a more mid-tier PK next round. Moderate playoff potential. Also considered: T. Ginn, Q. Enunwa.
7.20 - Texans, DST12 HOU
My 7th-round DST in ABLC last year was the Bears. That worked out pretty well! Here's another unit with top-3 talent when healthy and a decent shot at winning their division. I'll gladly take that as the 12th team off the board. Just don't trade Clowney, you dolts. Moderate playoff potential. Also considered: D/ST Vikings, M. Boykin.
8.13 - Trey Quinn, WR86 WAS
The way I see it is: If Gurley and/or Gordon miss significant chunks of time, these last three picks don't matter anyway. If neither does, I should be in the running. Speaking from bitter experience, the difference between "in the running" and champion can be as few as 7 points. You close those gaps with boring 110-120 point seasons from little-known but ensconced role players while many other late-round fliers wind up being nothing more than camp sensations. Low playoff potential. Also considered: J. Meyers, M. Lee, R. Cobb.
9.20 - Marqise Lee, WR98 JAC
It's not a controversial statement that Nick Foles is a better quarterback than Blake Bortles. Why, then, are all non-Dede Jaguar receivers being treated by draftniks like they were dipped in plutonium? Reports are that Lee has recovered nicely from last season's injury, and he should have little trouble moving back into a starter's role. My third choice 40 picks ago, so an easy one here. Moderate playoff potential. Also considered: Keshawn Johnson.
10.13 - Ryquell Armstead, RB72 JAC
To this point, 29 of 32 NFL teams have had multiple running backs drafted. The Giants have Saquon. The Panthers have C-Mac. And the Jaguars have a commitment to a run-control offense and a #1 back with a two-down skillset who has never played a full season dating back to college.
"One of these things is not like the other..." Moderate playoff potential.
It's my 4th season doing this - in the three prior I finished 1st, 24th, and 2nd. And in keeping with that tradition, I'll probably again finish closer to one end or another than to the middle. I could get two top-5 RB seasons from the #20 and #45 overall picks, in which case a decent season from the 49ers alone will keep me in contention (though if it comes to that, playoff scoring is likely to rear its ugly head). Or I could get half a gimpy season from one and nothing at all from the other, in which case I'll be down there shoveling coal into the burner.
Always a fun diversion from the usual draft routine - thanks as always to DD and good luck to all this year.