Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
The only time I was there I got all my bets in as soon as I got there before 10am. That left me unencumbered in my quest for booze and sightseeing.
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***2019 Kentucky Derby Thread & More*** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter General Malaise
- Start date
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
V for victory! Good luck out there.
Man of Constant Sorrow
Footballguy
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Had a chance to look at the Past Performances and Draw below:
Gate 1: War of Will
Gate 2: Tax
Gate 3: By My Standards
Gate 4: Gray Magician
Gate 5: Improbable
Gate 6: Vekoma
Gate 7: Maximum Security
Gate 8: Tacitus
Gate 9: Plus Que Parfait
Gate 10: Cutting Humor
Gate 11: Haikal
Gate 12: Omaha Beach
Gate 13: Code of Honor
Gate 14: Win Win Win
Gate 15: Master Fencer
Gate 16: Game Winner
Gate 17: Roadster
Gate 18: Long Range Toddy
Gate 19: Spinoff
Gate 20: Country House
Here's how I'm looking at it now. Eliminated horses - all of the inside 6, including Improbable. So War of Will, Tax, By My Standards, Gray Magician, Velkoma and Improbable. Drawing inside of Maximus Security and Omaha Beach will hurt all of them, and they weren't good enough anyway. Then eliminate Plus Que Parfait, Cutting Humor, Haikal, Code of Honor, Win Win Win, Master Fencer, Long Range Toddy, Spinoff and Country House. So I've eliminated 15 of the 20 horses.
5 horses will decide this:
7 - Maximus Security - won't get an easy trip with Omaha Beach breathing down his neck every step of the way but if he breaks well and settles who knows. Went from 16K maiden claimer to airing in the Grade 1 Florida Derby. Nobody's been close to him and he's had back to back Beyers over 100.
12 - Omaha Beach - gets the best draw and should track Maximus Security the whole way. If that one folds will inherit the lead. Hard to see him being out of the exacta.
16 - Game Winner - Don't like the fact that he labored and had to be asked in mid stretch but he was coming back on just 3 weeks rest. Should get a good trip laying 3rd or 4th and then come outside Omaha Beach. Question of him moving forward off those 2 preps or not. I think he's a grinder and not brilliant but has been right there in every race. Rumor is that the SA track was deep and tiring after it was redone so it might be giving him a conditioning edge
17- Roadster - honestly don't love his draw. He's going to have to find a way to tuck in and save ground. Hard to do from the 17 hole. I like him less after the post position draw. Got the worst of it for his style. But if he somehow gets a trip he finishes and is good enough to win this.
8 - Tacitus - I know, I said never bet the Wood Winner. But I have to give him a shot after seeing the post position draw. He wasn't the typical win up front Wood winner, and he had trouble to boot. At least he was drawing away at the end in his 2 starts, including at TB Downs. Beyers are in the range. For his style I love the 8 hole as long as he drops back and doesn't get squeezed when Improbable and Maximus Security go at it from the inner half and Omaha Beach and Game Winner try to shoot out to get position and not be wide. All of those horses in between are at risk of getting squeezed/slammed. Knock is he's been facing weaker fields so don't know if he's good enough to pass the top 4.
Usually love when I can eliminate 3/4 of the field but not a ton of value here. These are the horses who dominated the major final preps. Might do a Superfecta box with these 5. The only 2 closers I give a shot to are Roadster and Tacitus. If the top 3 go too fast along with Improbable (and they may hook up early enough) then one of the 2 closers can be in the exacta. Omaha Beach's race to lose after the draw. Game Winner figures close. Maximus Security has his work cut out trying to fend off those 2 early and then Roadster/Tacitus late. Neither Omaha Beach nor Game Winner are drawing away from each other so when that happens it gives the closers a punchers chance. If they settle then the high cruising speed top 3 will be controlling it.
Chalky I know but I can't see it any other way....
Gate 1: War of Will
Gate 2: Tax
Gate 3: By My Standards
Gate 4: Gray Magician
Gate 5: Improbable
Gate 6: Vekoma
Gate 7: Maximum Security
Gate 8: Tacitus
Gate 9: Plus Que Parfait
Gate 10: Cutting Humor
Gate 11: Haikal
Gate 12: Omaha Beach
Gate 13: Code of Honor
Gate 14: Win Win Win
Gate 15: Master Fencer
Gate 16: Game Winner
Gate 17: Roadster
Gate 18: Long Range Toddy
Gate 19: Spinoff
Gate 20: Country House
Here's how I'm looking at it now. Eliminated horses - all of the inside 6, including Improbable. So War of Will, Tax, By My Standards, Gray Magician, Velkoma and Improbable. Drawing inside of Maximus Security and Omaha Beach will hurt all of them, and they weren't good enough anyway. Then eliminate Plus Que Parfait, Cutting Humor, Haikal, Code of Honor, Win Win Win, Master Fencer, Long Range Toddy, Spinoff and Country House. So I've eliminated 15 of the 20 horses.
5 horses will decide this:
7 - Maximus Security - won't get an easy trip with Omaha Beach breathing down his neck every step of the way but if he breaks well and settles who knows. Went from 16K maiden claimer to airing in the Grade 1 Florida Derby. Nobody's been close to him and he's had back to back Beyers over 100.
12 - Omaha Beach - gets the best draw and should track Maximus Security the whole way. If that one folds will inherit the lead. Hard to see him being out of the exacta.
16 - Game Winner - Don't like the fact that he labored and had to be asked in mid stretch but he was coming back on just 3 weeks rest. Should get a good trip laying 3rd or 4th and then come outside Omaha Beach. Question of him moving forward off those 2 preps or not. I think he's a grinder and not brilliant but has been right there in every race. Rumor is that the SA track was deep and tiring after it was redone so it might be giving him a conditioning edge
17- Roadster - honestly don't love his draw. He's going to have to find a way to tuck in and save ground. Hard to do from the 17 hole. I like him less after the post position draw. Got the worst of it for his style. But if he somehow gets a trip he finishes and is good enough to win this.
8 - Tacitus - I know, I said never bet the Wood Winner. But I have to give him a shot after seeing the post position draw. He wasn't the typical win up front Wood winner, and he had trouble to boot. At least he was drawing away at the end in his 2 starts, including at TB Downs. Beyers are in the range. For his style I love the 8 hole as long as he drops back and doesn't get squeezed when Improbable and Maximus Security go at it from the inner half and Omaha Beach and Game Winner try to shoot out to get position and not be wide. All of those horses in between are at risk of getting squeezed/slammed. Knock is he's been facing weaker fields so don't know if he's good enough to pass the top 4.
Usually love when I can eliminate 3/4 of the field but not a ton of value here. These are the horses who dominated the major final preps. Might do a Superfecta box with these 5. The only 2 closers I give a shot to are Roadster and Tacitus. If the top 3 go too fast along with Improbable (and they may hook up early enough) then one of the 2 closers can be in the exacta. Omaha Beach's race to lose after the draw. Game Winner figures close. Maximus Security has his work cut out trying to fend off those 2 early and then Roadster/Tacitus late. Neither Omaha Beach nor Game Winner are drawing away from each other so when that happens it gives the closers a punchers chance. If they settle then the high cruising speed top 3 will be controlling it.
Chalky I know but I can't see it any other way....
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
For once, I can say "good info here" and actually mean it.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Really appreciate this analysis, Penguin. Very good stuff and has me considering hard some horses I wouldn't have considered otherwise.
General Malaise
Footballguy
I'm here as well. Plan on playing a large daily double and am liking a longshot in the Oaks who - if victorious - will pair nicely with any of your 5 like a fine cab pairs with a NY Strip.Judge Smails said:
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Thanks - I could be underestimating Win Win Win's chances at closing for a small piece. But just filler underneath Super. Can't see him in the top 3 spots. Looking forward to seeing other opinionsLeroy Hoard said:
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Omaha Beach out
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Omaha Beach out!!!
General Malaise
Footballguy
Wow.....
General Malaise
Footballguy
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Wow. Bummed for Mandela. This actually hurts the closers. Maximus Security has a softer trip, and if either he or Improbable don't get out well and the other does they could go a long way. Game Winner becomes the presser, doesn't have to go as wide. Easier for Roadster to tuck in as well.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
So does the 21 become the new 12?
Nipsey
Footballguy
Man of Constant Sorrow
Footballguy
Another bit of Derby advice:
He in the Bluegrass state, we usually eats our meats at a table.
Cabs are kinda shakey - regardless of how fine they may be.
But, if ya can't abide; I won't judge.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
I should have remembered they all just move in one spot outside of a scratch.
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/233421/favored-omaha-beach-out-of-kentucky-derby
-fish-
Footballguy
yeah Baffert confirmed he's sticking with Flo. Smith looks like he may not have a mount for the Derby.
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Oaks pps are here as well ^Cowboysfan8 said:
shadrap
Footballguy
love this thread for YOUR knowledge. Gives me a fighting chance & beats picking a horse because I like the name.
"Let it Ride" is a Gem of a movie I usually watch on Derby morning. Richard Drefus is fantastic & the script is outstanding. Can't recommend this movie enough for horse racing fans.
"Let it Ride" is a Gem of a movie I usually watch on Derby morning. Richard Drefus is fantastic & the script is outstanding. Can't recommend this movie enough for horse racing fans.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Doing some crash research now
I think your winner is one of Improbable, Maximum Security, Roadster or Game Winner
Chalky I know
Win Win Win maybe if pace is hot
I’ll probably play those 5 heavy in the exotics, now i just need to find some clunker who can get up for 2nd and make a nice payday
I think your winner is one of Improbable, Maximum Security, Roadster or Game Winner
Chalky I know
Win Win Win maybe if pace is hot
I’ll probably play those 5 heavy in the exotics, now i just need to find some clunker who can get up for 2nd and make a nice payday
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
The #8 at 10-1 has closed ten lengths to win in the past. If the pace doesn't crawl up front I like him to be moving forward at the finish.
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shuke
Black Ice Skeptic
I've only been to the infield, and multiple times. Yes it's crowded. There's trash everywhere. Some years there seemed to be a tough time getting food/beers, but last couple times seems to have been fine. The lines at the betting windows have gotten increasingly worse over the years. But with the amount of time between races you'll be fine. Except if it rains heavily. Some of the windows get closed because a few of those buildings are like down in a pit in the infield that fills with water and can flood.General Malaise said:
I think you'll be in the grandstands on Saturday with your dad, right?
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Eh worth keeping an eye on but I have little respect for the Wood and even less for the Tampa Bay Derby as a prep
looks like he did outkick Win^3 in that one but looking at notes Win was forced 5W
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Anyone know the last time a #21 made it into the field?
General Malaise
Footballguy
Just now seeing this on the PPs from DRF.
What means R-Bais and FLOW and what is BL and CFR? Can't find anything on my phone. Drf tutorials won't work on mobile. :(
What means R-Bais and FLOW and what is BL and CFR? Can't find anything on my phone. Drf tutorials won't work on mobile. :(
Quint
Footballguy
Penguin
Footballguy
Off hand I think it was like 2002 when Mike Smith's horse (again) got scratched, but I may be wrong
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TwinTurbo
Footballguy
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Is it R-Bias for rail bias?
CFR might be closing fractions?
BL...blinkers on/off?
just guessing
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Speaking of blinkers, Baffert taking blinkers off the 5. Notes say he was restless in gate last race.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Yeah that gives me some concern. I know when they added them to Palace Malice for the Derby he took off like a rocket, not sure what taking them off does
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
Veloma
Man of Constant Sorrow
Footballguy
Great weather here today.
Crowd continues to grow.
Also, @General Malaise - I have solidified my Friday plans. I will be roaming between the paddock area and the infield all day.
This gives me lots of freedom (if I recall things correctly - been a while fer me) to move around.
It should allow us to cross paths somewhere.
Watch your back!
Crowd continues to grow.
Also, @General Malaise - I have solidified my Friday plans. I will be roaming between the paddock area and the infield all day.
This gives me lots of freedom (if I recall things correctly - been a while fer me) to move around.
It should allow us to cross paths somewhere.
Watch your back!
Penguin
Footballguy
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
I like him more as an underneath play since he will be coming late but probably too late. The scratch of the 12 hurts the chance of a hot pace which is what he needs more than most. But I've seen much worse horses hit the board as closers.
Quint
Footballguy
Exactly. A bomber with a chance to hit the board and complete a Trifecta. My only hesitation is that he’s been getting a lot of media run lately and might not be a great price. Still, he’s in my TBX.
@-fish- - check out the Wood Memorial replay and Tax v Tacitus from the top of the far turn to the finish.
chet
Footballguy
I've been every year but one since 2008 (when Eight Belles pushed Big Brown so hard she broke down and had to be euthanized on the trackGeneral Malaise said:
). Not going this year either--last year was tough to beat as I attended with a part owner of Justify and was able to participate in much of the post win hoopla.I will tell you Louisville is very expensive Derby weekend. The locals look at it as their annual chance to get paid. Hotels can be 10x normal price. Restaurants have special Derby menus (and prices) and reservations can be tough to get. Any kind of transport to/from the track is slow and pricey. I now know what the deal is so I don't complain but many first timers experience significant sticker shock.
Derby day is a zoo at the track and as it gets closer to Derby post time, it gets worse. The crowd steadily builds as the day progresses until an hour before the race when everyone seems to gather in the aisles and stairs near our box. Trying to get a Mint Julep from a vendor is tough and getting to the bathroom can be a slog so plan accordingly. However, the energy in the air is incredible and like nothing else I've experienced. It really is the most exciting two minutes in sports and is the reason why I've been back so often.
Happy to answer any specific questions.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Yeah it’s pricey but one year Godfathers was giving away free t-shirts with a lap danceI've been every year but one since 2008 (when Eight Belles pushed Big Brown so hard she broke down and had to be euthanized on the track
I will tell you Louisville is very expensive Derby weekend. The locals look at it as their annual chance to get paid. Hotels can be 10x normal price. Restaurants have special Derby menus (and prices) and reservations can be tough to get. Any kind of transport to/from the track is slow and pricey. I now know what the deal is so I don't complain but many first timers experience significant sticker shock.
Derby day is a zoo at the track and as it gets closer to Derby post time, it gets worse. The crowd steadily builds as the day progresses until an hour before the race when everyone seems to gather in the aisles and stairs near our box. Trying to get a Mint Julep from a vendor is tough and getting to the bathroom can be a slog so plan accordingly. However, the energy in the air is incredible and like nothing else I've experienced. It really is the most exciting two minutes in sports and is the reason why I've been back so often.
Happy to answer any specific questions.
Man of Constant Sorrow
Footballguy
-fish-
Footballguy
Yeah, I get that. Tax and Tacitus chased down a 40-1 and 51-1 shot that set a decent pace but had no hope of finishing in the top 3. I can see him hitting the board and mixing it into some exotics, but that's about it.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Following up on the pace issue, whatever horse that can establish an easy lead will be tough to catch since nobody left in the field projects to be enough of a blazer to force a tough pace. In Brisnet parlance, a bunch of EP types but no for sure E type to set up the closers.
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