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***2019 Kentucky Derby Thread & More*** (1 Viewer)

General Malaise

General Malaise

Footballguy
Did a quick search, didn't find nothing.  Do we not do this anymore round here?  Did that go the way of Whose (Who's?) Hottest threads?  Where are all the enlightened rogues who frequented past derby threads?  Fellas.....I need you.  At 46 years old, I'm breaking my Derby cherry (can we say that here?)!  More excited I could not be.  Rumors abound that board legends @Thorn and @shuke will be there too.  

I've got my tickets secured for the first Saturday in May.  What I don't have is any idea on who the top horses are this year.  So it's time to shake off the rust, study the prep races and get the dialog going.  

Also, for anybody who goes often or lives in the area, I would really appreciate some tips or suggestions on attending the races on Friday for the Kentucky Oaks.  I do NOT have my tickets for that, but should I try and find them or can I gain entry the day of?  

 
Well - I live bout 10 yards from the track - I may be able to help on some things, GM, but I know ZERO about betting the ponies.

I never got into that, though I've OD'ed on just about everything else Derby.

Honestly, I'd even invite ya to my house, but I think I am subletting it for good $.

General Malaise said:
Also, for anybody who goes often or lives in the area, I would really appreciate some tips or suggestions on attending the races on Friday for the Kentucky Oaks.  I do NOT have my tickets for that, but should I try and find them or can I gain entry the day of?  
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Friday, imo, is the best day to go for an easy relaxed time. Derby Day is sweet - but crazy.

Regarding tickets, I have not attended on Derby Week since '92 (bought my house in '93 & found it was a better base of operations) - so, I don't know that either, but I can prolly find out pretty easily.  May even be able to secure ya some - no promises tho.

I do know, that you should have no problems. Most of my pals, usually don't even decide on their plans until the day of.

You will love it - I promise. The only thing I've done that can compare, is the Indy 500 - and that has been neutered a lot since I last went. I hear that you cannot even burn your car in the infield anymore ----- lame!

PM me if ya want.

later

 
Yeah @otb_lifer was a big contributor but he left.  @Evilgrin 72 @Judge Smails Usually contribute 

ill probably come up with some sort of analysis but I just don’t have the bandwidth for following the preps like I used to

should have no issues getting Oaks day tickets day of, last time I went I was able to get General Admission.  If you want something nicer I’m sure there will be some scalpers or maybe even seats for sale.  It’s generally not that crowded, especially early

make sure you visit Trixies

 
Man of Constant Sorrow said:
Well - I live bout 10 yards from the track - I may be able to help on some things, GM, but I know ZERO about betting the ponies.

I never got into that, though I've OD'ed on just about everything else Derby.

Honestly, I'd even invite ya to my house, but I think I am subletting it for good $.

Friday, imo, is the best day to go for an easy relaxed time. Derby Day is sweet - but crazy.

Regarding tickets, I have not attended on Derby Week since '92 (bought my house in '93 & found it was a better base of operations) - so, I don't know that either, but I can prolly find out pretty easily.  May even be able to secure ya some - no promises tho.

I do know, that you should have no problems. Most of my pals, usually don't even decide on their plans until the day of.

You will love it - I promise. The only thing I've done that can compare, is the Indy 500 - and that has been neutered a lot since I last went. I hear that you cannot even burn your car in the infield anymore ----- lame!

PM me if ya want.

later
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Awesome!  Was really hoping to hear from you, so thanks for the reply.  

I'm travelling with my old man who has us bunking with his Army buddy in Mt. Washington.  We'll have a rental, but I probably won't want to drive.  Hoping to take Lyft in on Friday morning to the track and then.....I don't really have any other plans.  Really hoping Thorn meets up with me for this day of races and would be great to meet you for a beverage or three.  

Let's keep this thread alive; I am very excited for this trip.

 
Dan Lambskin said:
Yeah @otb_lifer was a big contributor but he left.  @Evilgrin 72 @Judge Smails Usually contribute 

ill probably come up with some sort of analysis but I just don’t have the bandwidth for following the preps like I used to

should have no issues getting Oaks day tickets day of, last time I went I was able to get General Admission.  If you want something nicer I’m sure there will be some scalpers or maybe even seats for sale.  It’s generally not that crowded, especially early

make sure you visit Trixies
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Taking suggestions on attire....

 
General Malaise said:
Awesome!  Was really hoping to hear from you, so thanks for the reply.  

I'm travelling with my old man who has us bunking with his Army buddy in Mt. Washington.  We'll have a rental, but I probably won't want to drive.  Hoping to take Lyft in on Friday morning to the track and then.....I don't really have any other plans.  Really hoping Thorn meets up with me for this day of races and would be great to meet you for a beverage or three.  

Let's keep this thread alive; I am very excited for this trip.
Click to expand...
Most definitely! 

My beverages are pretty limited these days (coffee is good), but I function just fine in & enjoy being in all drinking environments (diabetes is my major issue). 

Oh, I pack a mean pipe as well - so's if that's a tune you sing, I got the lyrics. 

Your plans sound wise. 

We'll both learn more in the next few weeks. 

Later 

 
Game Winner got a lousy ride at the Santa Anita Derby from the usually awesome Rosario. 6 horse race and he's pinned 4-wide the whole trip and then sent too early. Smith was able to hold Roadster back and picked off GW in the stretch. Still, I think Game Winner is the better horse and the loss may knock his odds down a little.

Gotta see what Improbable does on Saturday in the AD. Drew the rail and first time with blinkers. I hope the mess at Santa Anita this year didn't screw that horse up. Going to be the favorite if he wins this Saturday. Baffert loves that horse.

 
Dan Lambskin said:
I’ve just gone in shorts/jeans and a polo whenever I’ve gone
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Works & comfy. 

When I host, I am usually a jacket - button down - nice jeans - fedora kinda dork, but unless it is high $ sections, I am over dressed....just a part of attracting customers & ladies (hah - right). 

My friend are usually exactly as you describe. 

 
Since 1990, 26 of 29 Kentucky Derby winners met at least one & 22 of 29 met both of following in final 9f prep: :13 or less last 1f :38 or less last 3f

Ten would-be Kentucky Derby 3yos meet #FinalFractionsTheory (final 9f prep either ≤ :13 last 1f and/or ≤ :38 last 3f) AND career best Beyer of 95+:

Cutting Humor, By My Standards, Maximum Security, Bodexpress, Code Of Honor, Spinoff, Win Win Win, Roadster, Plus Que Parfait & Game Winner.

Sunland Derby

12.18 37.01 Cutting Humor

11.93 37.06 Anothertwistafate  (doesn't qualify due to best Beyer)

Louisiana Derby

12.49 37.79 By My Standards

12.84 37.94 Spinoff

Florida Derby

12.52 35.96 Maximum Security

12.75 36.53 Bodexpress

12.78 36.79 Code Of Honor

12.67 36.71 Bourbon War  (doesn't qualify due to best Beyer)

12.78 36.97 Current  (doesn't qualify due to best Beyer)

13.42 37.77 Hidden Scroll  (doesn't qualify due to best Beyer)

13.25 37.89 Union Destiny  (doesn't qualify due to best Beyer)

13.16 37.83 Harvey Wallbanger  (doesn't qualify due to best Beyer)

13.13 37.78 Everfast  (doesn't qualify due to best Beyer)

Bluegrass Stakes

12.69 38.73 Win Win Win

Santa Anita Derby

12.79 38.27 Roadster

12.99 39.13 Game Winner

Wood Memorial

None

UAE Derby***

12.93 38.46 Plus Que Parfait

*** winner & runner-up last 100m & last 300m x 100.6% to convert to 1f & 3f:

Note that race was 9½f, not 9f, so apply Final Fractions Theory at your own risk.

 
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Last 1f in ≤ :13 AND career best Beyer of 95+:

12.69 Win Win Win

12.79 Roadster

12.93 Plus Que Parfait

12.99 Game Winner

Last 1f in ≤ :13 and last 3f ≤ :38 AND career best Beyer of 95+:

12.18 37.01 Cutting Humor

12.49 37.79 By My Standards

12.52 35.96 Maximum Security

12.75 36.53 Bodexpress

12.78 36.79 Code Of Honor

12.84 37.94 Spinoff

 
Nipsey said:
Game Winner got a lousy ride at the Santa Anita Derby from the usually awesome Rosario. 6 horse race and he's pinned 4-wide the whole trip and then sent too early. Smith was able to hold Roadster back and picked off GW in the stretch. Still, I think Game Winner is the better horse and the loss may knock his odds down a little.

Gotta see what Improbable does on Saturday in the AD. Drew the rail and first time with blinkers. I hope the mess at Santa Anita this year didn't screw that horse up. Going to be the favorite if he wins this Saturday. Baffert loves that horse.
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Respect the opinion Nipsey and I see your point, but I think it's making an excuse for Game Winner.  There was nothing I saw that says Game Winner will be better than Roadster going another 1/8th of a mile.  Roadster and Smith looked like they had Game Winner measured the entire time and won in hand.  I think that advantage widens in Kentucky all other things being equal.  Roadster can rate which only makes him more attractive at CD. If Game Winner went to early in a 6 horse field going 1 1/8 he's likely to do the same with more horses going faster longer.  Hope the SA debacle didn't interrupt training schedules but the top 2 looked very good to me.

Haven't paid much attention and zero bets this year since the idiots at Frontier kept TVG2 but dropped TVG.  I will get caught up soon.  Have to place bets ahead of time as have my member/guest golf tournament that weekend.  Will be cheering from the Men's Grill or watching from the golf cart. Will definitely be posting opinions soon.  No matter what I'm going in the next 2 years.  Top of my bucket list.

 
Roadster was almost a second faster the last 3f but neither ran a sub 38, seems the added distance would work in Roadsters favor over Game Winner.

 
Judge Smails said:
Respect the opinion Nipsey and I see your point, but I think it's making an excuse for Game Winner.  There was nothing I saw that says Game Winner will be better than Roadster going another 1/8th of a mile.  Roadster and Smith looked like they had Game Winner measured the entire time and won in hand.  I think that advantage widens in Kentucky all other things being equal.  Roadster can rate which only makes him more attractive at CD. If Game Winner went to early in a 6 horse field going 1 1/8 he's likely to do the same with more horses going faster longer.  Hope the SA debacle didn't interrupt training schedules but the top 2 looked very good to me.

Haven't paid much attention and zero bets this year since the idiots at Frontier kept TVG2 but dropped TVG.  I will get caught up soon.  Have to place bets ahead of time as have my member/guest golf tournament that weekend.  Will be cheering from the Men's Grill or watching from the golf cart. Will definitely be posting opinions soon.  No matter what I'm going in the next 2 years.  Top of my bucket list.
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I hear you. I'm definitely making an excuse for GW. I think Rosario just thought he had much the best and as long as he didn't get boxed he'd be fine. Looked like he tried to get him to the lead early and ditched that plan on that first turn. Then he decides to go right at the start of the far turn and all those horses up front just go with him.  Meanwhile Smith has Roadster about 10 lengths back, fires at the perfect time and picks them all off. Baffert actually said after the race he didn't like seeing Roadster sitting that far back early because the horse was getting dirt in his face and not handling it well. It was just an odd race. GW went off at 1/2 for a reason. Horse is a beast. Even after that whole crap ride/tough luck trip he's flying at the finish. He just picked up roadster when it was too late.

 
Nipsey said:
I hear you. I'm definitely making an excuse for GW. I think Rosario just thought he had much the best and as long as he didn't get boxed he'd be fine. Looked like he tried to get him to the lead early and ditched that plan on that first turn. Then he decides to go right at the start of the far turn and all those horses up front just go with him.  Meanwhile Smith has Roadster about 10 lengths back, fires at the perfect time and picks them all off. Baffert actually said after the race he didn't like seeing Roadster sitting that far back early because the horse was getting dirt in his face and not handling it well. It was just an odd race. GW went off at 1/2 for a reason. Horse is a beast. Even after that whole crap ride/tough luck trip he's flying at the finish. He just picked up roadster when it was too late.
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Wait, Roadster ran a faster finale 3f and a faster finale f than Game winner

 
Current odds

----------------------

Roadster 9/2

Improbable 6/1 (Toss)

Omaha Beach 7/1 (Toss)

Maximum Security 8/1

Game Winner 8/1

Tacitus 10/1 (Toss)

Long Range 12/1 (Toss)

Vekoma 16/1 (Toss)

Code of Honor 25/1

Cutting Humor 30/1

Spinoff 30/1

Anotherwistafate 30/1 (Toss)

Bourbon War 30/1 (Toss)

War of Will 30/1 (Toss)

By My Standards 40/1

Galilean 40/1 (Toss)

Haikal 40/1 (Toss)

Tax 40/1 (Toss)

Win Win Win 50/1

Plus Que Parfait 50/1

Instagrand 50/1 (Toss)

Mucho Gusto 50/1 (Toss)

Bodexpress 60/1

 
My Qualifying horses

-----------------------------------

Roadster 9/2

Maximum Security 8/1

Game Winner 8/1

Code of Honor 25/1

Cutting Humor 30/1

Spinoff 30/1

By My Standards 40/1

Win Win Win 50/1

Plus Que Parfait 50/1

Bodexpress 60/1

 
I heard they are considering letting justify come back to defend his title!  Finally, I've been talking about this for years!

 
Updated Odds via Westgate

Roadster 9/2

Game Winner 5/1

Improbable 7/1

Omaha Beach 8/1

Maximum Security 8/1

Tacitus 12/1

Long Range Toddy 12/1

Vekoma 16/1

Win Win Win 25/1

War Of Will 30/1

Code Of Honor 30/1

Bourbon War 30/1

ANOTHERWISTAFATE 30/1

Spinoff 30/1

Cutting Humor 30/1

Haikal 40/1

By My Standards 40/1

Plus Que Parfait 40/1

Instagrand 50/1

Mucho Gusto 50/1

Tax 50/1

Galilean 60/1

Country House 60/1

Grey Magician 60/1

Bodexpress 60/1

 
Penguin said:
Updated Odds via Westgate

Roadster 9/2

Game Winner 5/1

Improbable 7/1

Omaha Beach 8/1

Maximum Security 8/1

Tacitus 12/1

Long Range Toddy 12/1

Vekoma 16/1

Win Win Win 25/1

War Of Will 30/1

Code Of Honor 30/1

Bourbon War 30/1

ANOTHERWISTAFATE 30/1

Spinoff 30/1

Cutting Humor 30/1

Haikal 40/1

By My Standards 40/1

Plus Que Parfait 40/1

Instagrand 50/1

Mucho Gusto 50/1

Tax 50/1

Galilean 60/1

Country House 60/1

Grey Magician 60/1

Bodexpress 60/1
Click to expand...
Baffert with the top 3 horses. They might have to rename the race soon.

 
General Malaise said:
I for one will be coming in peace, leaving in pieces.
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Well Humpy Dumpty - I will do my part to crack ya! 

Tellin" shukes the other day that I have officially opened up my schedule for the week. 

Thus, as soon as you know anything about potential free time, lemme know. 

Also, have you got tickets for Friday yet? 

General admission was always reasonable and it offers lots of options to roam. See many things & peeps rather than just havin' a seat or section. 

 
General Malaise said:
Interesting.  Wonder why.
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Omaha Beach won two major Derby prep races, Roadster won only one (I think).

OB also seems to have more tactical speed than Roadster, which  most people consider an advantage in navigating the huge field in the Derby (although I'm not sure I agree).

 
Man of Constant Sorrow said:
Well Humpy Dumpty - I will do my part to crack ya! 

Tellin" shukes the other day that I have officially opened up my schedule for the week. 

Thus, as soon as you know anything about potential free time, lemme know. 

Also, have you got tickets for Friday yet? 

General admission was always reasonable and it offers lots of options to roam. See many things & peeps rather than just havin' a seat or section. 
Click to expand...
Nah, was gonna just go GA for Friday, so your advize is prudent and appreciated.  Thorn and I are a package deal for Friday and then I'm going to hang with my old man Saturday, though I plan to slip free and join the larger crew for some hijinks.  If Thorn and I get sideways, do you have a backyard with some bushes we can crash in? 

 
General Malaise said:
Nah, was gonna just go GA for Friday, so your advize is prudent and appreciated.  Thorn and I are a package deal for Friday and then I'm going to hang with my old man Saturday, though I plan to slip free and join the larger crew for some hijinks.  If Thorn and I get sideways, do you have a backyard with some bushes we can crash in? 
Click to expand...
Cool. Good plans. 

Regarding a place to crash, I am not sure yet. I am negotiating the rental of my property with a professional party service. 

They haul in a van load of guests for a few days, and use my home as their home base. They serve food, drinks & other sundries - then the guests hit the track for a while and then return to my place. 

It pays much better than parking cars in my lot (room for about 15) and it frees me up to go out & have fun. 

We have not closed on anything yet but if we do, I will not be at my place while you are here - I'll be sleeping at parents when not roaming the track area. 

However, if I do not make a deal with the party peeps, I have a bed & couch available - if needed. Oh, bushes are fine too - if that is your thing. 

NTTIAWWT 

I should know for sure, regarding my situation, by next Wednesday. 

✌️

 
Man of Constant Sorrow said:
It's getting busy here round Churchill - expecting all you fools coming ta party will once again demolish the hood. 

So sad... 

Habe fun! 😎
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Were you there in the late 80s?  Me and 5 buds parked our Winnebago on someone's lawn and charged us 20 bucks a day. We were about 2 blocks from the track.

 
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Leroy Hoard said:
Were you there in the late 80s?  Me and 5 buds parked our Winnebago on someone's lawn and charged us 20 bucks a day. We were about 2 blocks from the track.
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I bought my house in '93.

In the late 80s, I was at the track every Derby - infield - PARTY! 

You guys got a great price. The last RV I parked, paid $125 per day. I supplied water & electricity - plus, I am right on the track - so that adds a little as well. 

Good times. 😎

 
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