2019 Waiting on your QB - Who do you like late? (2 Viewers)

[kittenmittens]

I wouldn't do it, but I get it. He was a low end QB1 last year, despite seeing almost no work with the 1st team all offseason, and they've since added Odell Beckham, who fits Mayfield's skill set better than he ever did Eli's. But that said, yeah top-5(round 6) is pretty risky to me. 

Haha yeah I can't disagree with the upside.  There are a some other players that probably have a higher floor...  I do want Mayfield later, but whoever falls is good enough in 1 QB leagues. 

 

[steelers1080]

I will say that some of my leagues are crazy about waiting on QB, the QB1 will often go early, like Mahomes in the 2nd or 3rd, but then no one will take QB until the 6th, and I'd be ok taking Rodgers in the 6th if none of the WRs or RBs I love fell. 

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Just wondering...  what would it take for a team to have 3 WR's in the top 20, and have their QB not finish in the top 10?

It would be effectively impossible, even if one of those "WRs" were putting up equivalent stats as a TE instead.

Finishing in the top 20 requires a 65/1,000/7 stat line or thereabouts. Stack 3 of those stat lines together and even if those top 3 guys were commanding a 75% target share (well above historical averages), that QB would finish with around 4,000 yards passing and 28 TDs - borderline QB10 numbers as-is. And this assumes those top 3 guys finish right on the thresholds above, when in reality there would be a few hundred extra yards and several extra TDs spread out among the top 3.

Generally speaking, any time three pass-catchers from the same offense are being drafted as elite options, either that offense is poised to set records (unlikely) or at least one of them will be a fantasy disappointment (much more likely).

 

[TheWinz]

It would be effectively impossible, even if one of those "WRs" were putting up equivalent stats as a TE instead.

Finishing in the top 20 requires a 65/1,000/7 stat line or thereabouts. Stack 3 of those stat lines together and even if those top 3 guys were commanding a 75% target share (well above historical averages), that QB would finish with around 4,000 yards passing and 28 TDs - borderline QB10 numbers as-is. And this assumes those top 3 guys finish right on the thresholds above, when in reality there would be a few hundred extra yards and several extra TDs spread out among the top 3.

Generally speaking, any time three pass-catchers from the same offense are being drafted as elite options, either that offense is poised to set records (unlikely) or at least one of them will be a fantasy disappointment (much more likely).

Thanx for replying - these were my thoughts as well.  Seems like Goff is either undervalued, or one or more of his concensus top 20 WR's is overvalued (Cooks at 15, Woods at 18, Kupp at 19).  The only other QB to have even 2 WR's in the top 20 is Kirk Cousins, who may also be a bargain.

 

[rzrback77]

exactly...the fake money ADPs are terrible.  Step into the drafts where real amounts of money are on the line if you want to see actual ADPs. 

I see these ridiculous "expert" league drafts on Twitter and they make me want to puke.

I concur that the ADPs likely are not correctly set using an average of "experts opinions" from various sites. But, even with three or four guys being obviously misplaced, a similar situation will result with different QBs falling into the mid-20s QB range. Reviewing the responses in the thread so far, there are a multitude of QBs identified as being value late. Don't you think that this will remain true, even if four or more are shifted upward. Perhaps different QBs will project as bigger values, but there will still be several QBs that some folks see as potential Top Ten sliding into the 20s.

 

[Men-in-Cleats]

Not sure why one would want Dak over Cousins who has two top twenty WR's, a RB who can catch, and a solid TE (with a new rookie understudy as well).  You point to his second half of last year but even in that he's in the offense much more likely to go conservative and have dud weeks.  Sure Gallop could develop and become an excellent #2 but I didn't see signs of that last year and wouldn't want to count on it. 

 

[Men-in-Cleats]

People sleep on Dak, and he finishes as a QB1 every year. I wouldn't feel great about owning just him, but a combo of him and Murray or Cousins would be just fine, and just play the matchups. 

Also, in a Best Ball League I'd be very happy to pair Allen with a more reliable QB and get a handful of those 35+ pt weeks. 

He finishes high but it is often a few big games bolstering the numbers while in other weeks you lose as he gave you 160 yards and 0 TD's.  In some cases you've already benched him by the time the big game comes so it ends up just bolstering your bench scoring.

 

[Men-in-Cleats]

What's the reward exactly? Even on the best offense Goff managed 32 tds. Imagine what happens when the Rams struggle. We've seen what can happen without Gurley; his looming knee issues puts the whole offense at risk.

I see this complete opposite. You pay for his recent numbers without a discount for a possible drop off. Give me assurance from Ben or Rivers or upside from Wentz before Goff.

Only 5 people threw more TD's with two of them having lost their favorite target in the offseason.  The other thing you have to consider is that he was on a much better pace prior to losing Cooper Kupp last year.  The fact that he'll have his targets back this year, the fact that at 24 years old he isn't a finished product, and the fact that his division is not the strongest all work in his favor.  It is puzzling why people are seeing Prescott, who isn't a strong downfield thrower, as more of an upside pick than Goff, who has twice as many good targets and throws a better deep ball as having reached his ceiling.  I can see taking Ben ahead of him but have a hard time with Rivers after some mediocre seasons I've had with him.  I don't remember the last time I saw a team with Rivers on it win a title.  Playoffs yes, winning it all, no. 

 

[Jacksonke1]

He finishes high but it is often a few big games bolstering the numbers while in other weeks you lose as he gave you 160 yards and 0 TD's.  In some cases you've already benched him by the time the big game comes so it ends up just bolstering your bench scoring.

Seems this kind of argument rarely holds up well, whether it be for Dak or any other player. Most everyone has dud games and we can cherry pick the best. For where you can get him Dak still has upside too with Amari and him clicking, Witten back and Cobb on board....not to mention his rushing.