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***2020 Democrat Primary/Caucus Thread*** Biden Is Your Demoractic Nominee (1 Viewer)

Breaking

Shimon Prokupecz @ShimonPro

"CNN: The Nevada State Democratic Party is asking site leaders to sign non-disclosure agreements, according to one volunteer who had planned to help with Saturday’s caucuses but quit because he didn’t want to sign the document."

DNC again, doing it's best to foster trust in the community. Nothing to see here folks! The caucus is going to be totally legit!

 
Breaking

Shimon Prokupecz @ShimonPro

"CNN: The Nevada State Democratic Party is asking site leaders to sign non-disclosure agreements, according to one volunteer who had planned to help with Saturday’s caucuses but quit because he didn’t want to sign the document."

DNC again, doing it's best to foster trust in the community. Nothing to see here folks! The caucus is going to be totally legit!
Can anyone come up with a good reason to have NDAs for this? Has anyone else verified that they are requiring NDAs?

 
Another process change. Nevada who already switched from the shadow app, used to report returns in Iowa, to Google forms to tabulate and transmit the results; are now not depending on Google forms to transmit the results and will now just the depend on the good ole phone to report the results.

 
Another process change. Nevada who already switched from the shadow app, used to report returns in Iowa, to Google forms to tabulate and transmit the results; are now not depending on Google forms to transmit the results and will now just the depend on the good ole phone to report the results.
I suppose I am okay with this. Anything to get away from inadequate technology and failed programming teams.

 
Another process change. Nevada who already switched from the shadow app, used to report returns in Iowa, to Google forms to tabulate and transmit the results; are now not depending on Google forms to transmit the results and will now just the depend on the good ole phone to report the results.
Caucus reporting requires nothing more than a clipboard and a rotary phone. No need to reinvent the wheel here. I'd throw in a whiteboard at each site as well to minimize act shenanigans. 

 
Caucus reporting requires nothing more than a clipboard and a rotary phone. No need to reinvent the wheel here. I'd throw in a whiteboard at each site as well to minimize act shenanigans. 
Write the results on a whiteboard while everyone is there and take a picture of it. 

 
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Tie breaking in Nevada caucus is drawing cards, high card wins, Ace is high. If two of the same card are drawn , :spade: wins then :heart: :diamond: :club: . Extra cards including Jokers are removed and deck shuffled 7 times.
7 riffle shuffles is a sufficiently randomized deck.

I love the idea of theming your tiebreaker.

 
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hagmania said:
7 riffle shuffles is a sufficiently randomized deck.

I love the idea of theming your tiebreaker.
I'm pulling for an old school AD&D duel to the death here in KY. 

Dice would have to be carefully weighed tho. 

 
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Phil Elliott said:
Another process change. Nevada who already switched from the shadow app, used to report returns in Iowa, to Google forms to tabulate and transmit the results; are now not depending on Google forms to transmit the results and will now just the depend on the good ole phone to report the results.
I'm pretty sure Google Sheets keeps a change log at least... it may even be viewable to read only users as well. Give each campaign and the media a read only login to keep it on the up and up.

Of course this would require the form itself to be set up properly, but even that should be easy enough to troubleshoot.  Google itself might even be able to assist if their name gets brought up enough.

 
Kentucky would be something like hiding a prize in one of two bites of chaw
Tiebreaker is we set a horse in front of several glasses of bourbon, whichever one it drinks first is winner.  Double tiebreaker is sudden death cornhole game.  

 
They seem to be following Iowa with a first alignment and then anyone under 15% has to find another candidate. How does that work with early voting?

 
In Sparks, after first alignmet, Bernie is the only one “viable” with 47%. No one else over 15%.

after second alignment:

 Bernie 59%
warren 35.5%
gabbard 3.2 %
steyer 2.2%

 
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The entrance data can't be right on race can it?  I'm seeing 65% white, 10% black, 18% hispanic.  Last NV caucus white was 59%.  Either there is a data issue or a difference in enthusiasm by race.  I guess some could be skewed by early voting versus same day too,

 
There are 4 extra columns on the ballot for realignment.  Every ballot must have 2 realignment columns punched or it is invalid and thrown out
Say there are 50 voters at a caucus. 50 early votes.

Sanders gets 15 voters there and 15 early voters.

Biden gets 15 votes there and 15 early voters.

Warren gets 5 votes there and 5 early voters

Biden gets 5 votes there and 5 early voters

Pete gets 5 votes there and 5 early voters

Amy gets 5 votes there and 5 early voters

Sanders and Biden are viable and locked in. But, what if the 10 early voters for Warren/Biden have a 2nd choice of Pete and what if the Pete/Amy 10 early voters have a first choice of Biden? Does everyone just go to their second choice, or can a first choice stay locked in if the candidate reaches viability at some point during the second round?

 
The entrance data can't be right on race can it?  I'm seeing 65% white, 10% black, 18% hispanic.  Last NV caucus white was 59%.  Either there is a data issue or a difference in enthusiasm by race.  I guess some could be skewed by early voting versus same day too,
I think the folks most likely to not to be able to take 5 hours out of a Saturday are those who are lower income and have to work a Saturday. Generally, minorities are lower income. Therefore, I'd think that if a minority wanted to vote, but had to work, voting by mail is more attractive. I think that the votes by mail will skew towards the minorities. Sounds like more than 50% of the voting was done by mail.

 
@ryanstruyk

Super Tuesday state ad spending via @CNN

(h/t@DavidWright_7)

Bloomberg: $159.7 million

Steyer: $38.5 million

Sanders: $10.8 million

Klobuchar: $1.8 million

Warren: $0.3 million

Gabbard: $0.1 million

Biden: $0

Buttigieg: $0

11:54 AM · Feb 22, 2020

 
I just can't see any of these folks getting out before Super Tuesday, even if the money is dried up. 100 delegates could be worth Secretary of State at the convention.

 
Say there are 50 voters at a caucus. 50 early votes.

Sanders gets 15 voters there and 15 early voters.

Biden gets 15 votes there and 15 early voters.

Warren gets 5 votes there and 5 early voters

Biden gets 5 votes there and 5 early voters

Pete gets 5 votes there and 5 early voters

Amy gets 5 votes there and 5 early voters

Sanders and Biden are viable and locked in. But, what if the 10 early voters for Warren/Biden have a 2nd choice of Pete and what if the Pete/Amy 10 early voters have a first choice of Biden? Does everyone just go to their second choice, or can a first choice stay locked in if the candidate reaches viability at some point during the second round?
Not sure how the algorithm actually works but I feel pretty safe assuming it will stay with or revert to your first choice if than candidate is viable.

 
Nevada entrance poll (early vote wave)

White

Sanders 31%

Buttigieg 18%

Klobuchar 13%

Warren13%

Biden 12%

Hispanic

Sanders 51%

Biden 13%

Buttigieg 10%

Steyer 9%

Warren 8%

Klobuchar 6%

Black

Biden 36%

Sanders 25%

Steyer 13%

Warren 13%

Klobuchar 3%

Buttigieg 2%

 
Sanders on cruise control. This feels a bit like being in a car that's hit a patch of ice. Trump has us headed to the ditch but an overcorrection in the steering wheel with Bernie has us headed to the other. I just hope Bernie can beat Trump if this keeps up.

 
Sanders on cruise control. This feels a bit like being in a car that's hit a patch of ice. Trump has us headed to the ditch but an overcorrection in the steering wheel with Bernie has us headed to the other. I just hope Bernie can beat Trump if this keeps up.
Booming economy is called "headed to the ditch" now?  Wat?  Do we really need to delude ourselves into thinking things that are going good are actually bad because we don't like who is in office?

 
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