2020 Presidential Election Odds Thread (1 Viewer)

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Figured it would be interesting to track odds for the election in a thread. Please keep all posts on topic (odds of election). There are 395 other threads in this forum for red-v-blue bickering. 

As of Jan 9th Trump currently a significant favorite, although odds will clearly tighten as the Democratic field consolidates in the spring/summer. 
 

Candidate			bet365		betway
Donald Trump (R)		-120		-125
Joe Biden (D)			+450		+500
Bernie Sanders (D)		+700		+700
Elizabeth Warren (D)		+1100		+1200
Pete Buttigieg (D)		+1400		+1400
Michael Bloomberg (D)		+2000		+1400
Hillary Clinton (D)		+2800		+2800
Andrew Yang (D)			+3300		+3300
Amy Klobuchar			+5000		+5000
Mike Pence (R)			+6600		+5000

 

[timschochet]

I don't believe these odds can be accurate at all until there is a Democratic nominee.

Take March Madness. Imagine a scenario where, instead of 64 teams, there are 33: 32 teams on one side of the bracket, and one team on the other side which will only play in the final game. Obviously the lone team on the one side of the bracket will be the heavy favorite, even if its not nearly the best team. Because it only has to win one game, while everybody else has to win 5 games. But once you get to that final game, then the odds change significantly depending on whom the opponent is.

So Donald Trump has to be the heavy favorite right now, and will remain the favorite even when the field consolidates on the Democrat side. Only when there is a single opponent on the Democrat side will the odds represent anything close to accuracy.

 

[Stealthycat]

IIRC it was like 92% of media picked Hillary in 2016

don't believe polls / odds etc on elections

 

[tonydead]

I don't believe these odds can be accurate at all until there is a Democratic nominee.

Take March Madness. Imagine a scenario where, instead of 64 teams, there are 33: 32 teams on one side of the bracket, and one team on the other side which will only play in the final game. Obviously the lone team on the one side of the bracket will be the heavy favorite, even if its not nearly the best team. Because it only has to win one game, while everybody else has to win 5 games. But once you get to that final game, then the odds change significantly depending on whom the opponent is.

So Donald Trump has to be the heavy favorite right now, and will remain the favorite even when the field consolidates on the Democrat side. Only when there is a single opponent on the Democrat side will the odds represent anything close to accuracy.

Your analogy and resulting math is baked into the odds. The odds are correct, books don’t give away money. No need to try and discredit them any further for some strange reason. 

 

[timschochet]

Your analogy and resulting math is baked into the odds. The odds are correct, books don’t give away money. No need to try and discredit them any further for some strange reason. 

I’m not trying to discredit them. I just don’t think they give you an accurate read of who is likely to win the election. The odds they offer for each individual candidate is, I would think, extremely accurate, but it’s largely based right now on how many hurdles they have to cross. 

 

[[icon]]

I don't believe these odds can be accurate at all until there is a Democratic nominee.

As of Jan 9th Trump currently a significant favorite, although odds will clearly tighten as the Democratic field consolidates in the spring/summer. 

Literally addressed in the Original Post, Tim. 

 

[timschochet]

As I wrote, it will tighten, but it still won't be accurate until there are only two.

 

[tonydead]

For comparison sportsbook.ag has the following for winning the electoral vote:

Trump -160

Anyone else +130

I haven’t looked at it a long time but that puts Trump as big as a favorite that I ever remember. 

 

[[icon]]

As I wrote, it will tighten, but it still won't be accurate until there are only two.

So why did you feel the need to re-state what I had clearly stated in the OP?  

 

[tonydead]

I’m not trying to discredit them. I just don’t think they give you an accurate read of who is likely to win the election. The odds they offer for each individual candidate is, I would think, extremely accurate, but it’s largely based right now on how many hurdles they have to cross. 

They are accurate if you understand them. 

Trump -160 the field +130 easier for you?  

 

[[icon]]

For comparison sportsbook.ag has the following for winning the electoral vote:

Trump -160

Anyone else +130

I haven’t looked at it a long time but that puts Trump as big as a favorite that I ever remember. 

Thanks for sharing. Will Include that line as well going forward for tracking purposes.   

 

[timschochet]

They are accurate if you understand them. 

Trump -160 the field +130 easier for you?  

No. And the way you're looking at it is extremely flawed.

Trump has a consistent approval rating of 43% for nearly his entire term, and a disapproval rating of over 51%. No sitting President has ever been re-elected with such numbers, not even Harry Truman, and that was a huge upset. For Trump to win even the electoral college he has to get around 4 points higher and I have no idea where those points come from. He's currently underwater in nearly every battleground state.

UNLESS- and here's where the oddsmakers come in- Trump faces a progressive candidate like Warren or Sanders. THEN he will be the heavy favorite. And it is the presence of Warren and Sanders in the race currently that are driving Trump's odds up, because they are included in the field. Once they are gone, the field significantly changes.

But, if you don't believe I am right about this, I will make you the following wager: if Biden, Buttigieg, or Klobuchar is the nominee, on September 1, 2020, whatever oddsmakers Icon is using will have that person as the favorite. You can name the amount, and we can donate the winnings to charity or make it a personal bet. Your choice.

 

[jm192]

I don't believe these odds can be accurate at all until there is a Democratic nominee.

Take March Madness. Imagine a scenario where, instead of 64 teams, there are 33: 32 teams on one side of the bracket, and one team on the other side which will only play in the final game. Obviously the lone team on the one side of the bracket will be the heavy favorite, even if its not nearly the best team. Because it only has to win one game, while everybody else has to win 5 games. But once you get to that final game, then the odds change significantly depending on whom the opponent is.

So Donald Trump has to be the heavy favorite right now, and will remain the favorite even when the field consolidates on the Democrat side. Only when there is a single opponent on the Democrat side will the odds represent anything close to accuracy.

I assure you, odds makes are absolutely considering this.  

 

[tonydead]

No. And the way you're looking at it is extremely flawed.

Trump has a consistent approval rating of 43% for nearly his entire term, and a disapproval rating of over 51%. No sitting President has ever been re-elected with such numbers, not even Harry Truman, and that was a huge upset. For Trump to win even the electoral college he has to get around 4 points higher and I have no idea where those points come from. He's currently underwater in nearly every battleground state.

UNLESS- and here's where the oddsmakers come in- Trump faces a progressive candidate like Warren or Sanders. THEN he will be the heavy favorite. And it is the presence of Warren and Sanders in the race currently that are driving Trump's odds up, because they are included in the field. Once they are gone, the field significantly changes.

But, if you don't believe I am right about this, I will make you the following wager: if Biden, Buttigieg, or Klobuchar is the nominee, on September 1, 2020, whatever oddsmakers Icon is using will have that person as the favorite. You can name the amount, and we can donate the winnings to charity or make it a personal bet. Your choice.

Im not looking at it at all, this is not my take, these are real published odds. 

If you think the books are off place a bet. I don’t care. I do know they do this for a living and they don’t like to give money away.

its literally the definition of something you can’t argue, yet here you are. 

 

[timschochet]

Im not looking at it at all, this is not my take, these are real published odds. 

If you think the books are off place a bet. I don’t care. I do know they do this for a living and they don’t like to give money away.

its literally the definition of something you can’t argue, yet here you are. 

You're talking past me. I'll try one last time.

If Joe Biden wins the nomination, the oddsmakers will make him the favorite to be President. If you don't believe this, I'm willing to have a wager with YOU.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Let's not forget that sportsbooks are not political hacks. Unlike them they actually put their money where their mouths are.

 

[[icon]]

You're talking past me. I'll try one last time.

If Joe Biden wins the nomination, the oddsmakers will make him the favorite to be President. If you don't believe this, I'm willing to have a wager with YOU.

If this is the case then why is trump a favorite vs every other human on the planet right now?  You say you're looking to make a bet, you can get 1.3 to 1 right now.

 

[timschochet]

If this is the case then why is trump a favorite vs the field right now?  If you believe this you can get $130 for every $100 you wager right now, FYI. 

Because I have no assurance that Biden will be the nominee. I don't favor every person in the field.

 

[[icon]]

Because I have no assurance that Biden will be the nominee. I don't favor every person in the field.

You can get Biden PLUS everyone else free, though! 

Or do you think Biden is the only candidate that can beat Trump? 

 

[timschochet]

You can get Biden PLUS everyone else free, though! 

Or do you think Biden is the only candidate that can beat Trump? 

Not the only one. But I don't think Warren or Bernie will. At least, the odds don't favor them to IMO.

 

[Jayrod]

I'll give anyone 7:1 odds that Trump doesn't win, and I never welch.

 

[timschochet]

Look I don't even think I'm arguing with you guys. I agree with the poll. I've got no problem with it. Trump is the heavy favorite and should be- for now. If it's Warren or Sanders, Trump will stay the favorite. If it's anyone else, that person will be the favorite.

 

[Jayrod]

I'll give anyone 7:1 odds that Trump doesn't win, and I never welch.

And just in case anyone is in in the loop, THIS is a joke.

 

[tonydead]

Look I don't even think I'm arguing with you guys. I agree with the poll. I've got no problem with it. Trump is the heavy favorite and should be- for now. If it's Warren or Sanders, Trump will stay the favorite. If it's anyone else, that person will be the favorite.

Poll?  What poll?  Good grief. 

 

[timschochet]

Poll?  What poll?  Good grief. 

Sigh. I meant the odds. Are you that so eager to find flaw in something I wrote that you'll jump on any mistake? If so, this is a worthless conversation.

 

[tonydead]

Sigh. I meant the odds. Are you that so eager to find flaw in something I wrote that you'll jump on any mistake? If so, this is a worthless conversation.

You started off by saying the published odds aren't accurate.  Then you accused me of being extremely flawed in how I'm looking at it. 

Everyone understands that Trump's line get's pushed down because he automatically gets the Republican nominations, literally EVERYONE.  You come in here trying to explain it away like no one does.  

How is someone supposed to react when everything you say is wrong?  The odds are accurate.  I didn't say or imply that I was looking at the odds without knowing how they are set.  And we are talking about odds, not polls.  3 wrongs, it's like you type without thought or filter.

 

[Zegras11]

Bovada

 

2020 US Presidential Election Winner

Donald Trump-115

Joe Biden+450

Bernie Sanders+650

Michael Bloomberg+1200

Elizabeth Warren+1600

Pete Buttigieg+1600

Andrew Yang+2500

Hillary Clinton+4000

Amy Klobuchar+6000

Mike Pence+8000

Nikki Haley+10000

Michelle Obama+12500

Tulsi Gabbard+15000

Cory Booker+25000

Deval Patrick+25000

Jeb Bush+25000

John Kasich+25000

Mitt Romney+25000

Tammy Duckworth+25000

Trey Gowdy+25000

William (Bill) Weld+25000

Marco Rubio+30000

Mark Cuban+30000

Ted Cruz+30000

Tim Kaine+30000

Tom Steyer+30000

Howard Schultz+50000

Marianne Williamson+50000

Kanye West+100000

 

[the moops]

In FEB 2012, Obama was -220 to win the election against the 4 republican challengers (Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, Paul). All that I am going for here is that Trump being just over even money to win the presidency against a field of 4000 democrats is not necessarily a very good sign

 

[AAABatteries]

Bovada

 

2020 US Presidential Election Winner

Donald Trump-115

Joe Biden+450

Bernie Sanders+650

Michael Bloomberg+1200

Elizabeth Warren+1600

Pete Buttigieg+1600

Andrew Yang+2500

Hillary Clinton+4000

Amy Klobuchar+6000

Mike Pence+8000

Nikki Haley+10000

Michelle Obama+12500

Tulsi Gabbard+15000

Cory Booker+25000

Deval Patrick+25000

Jeb Bush+25000

John Kasich+25000

Mitt Romney+25000

Tammy Duckworth+25000

Trey Gowdy+25000

William (Bill) Weld+25000

Marco Rubio+30000

Mark Cuban+30000

Ted Cruz+30000

Tim Kaine+30000

Tom Steyer+30000

Howard Schultz+50000

Marianne Williamson+50000

Kanye West+100000

I know nothing about gambling so maybe this is a dumb question but can you bet on these things not happening?

 

[Zegras11]

I know nothing about gambling so maybe this is a dumb question but can you bet on these things not happening?

I'm sure some site somewhere is offering odds on that type of bet.  Most likely just the few with the best odds of winning.  

 

[BassNBrew]

So apparently Vegas is giving away money. If you guys really believe what you are saying it’s the perfect time for a straddle. 

 

[timschochet]

So apparently Vegas is giving away money. If you guys really believe what you are saying it’s the perfect time for a straddle. 

Vegas is accurate. Trump has to be considered the favorite against multiple candidates. I do not believe Trump will be the favorite against one candidate (so long as it’s the one I think it will likely be.) 

Trump is huge trouble. A majority of Americans want him impeached and removed. A huge majority of Americans want witnesses at his Senate trial and if they don’t get them will consider it a whitewash. A majority of Americans believe he’s lying about an imminent attack and that killing Soleimani was dumb and makes us less safe. 

The good economy is already baked in to his approval numbers and they’re still historically low. He’s underwater in nearly every battleground state. Most Americans regard him as an embarrassment as President and their impressions are unlikely to change. Could he win? Given the electoral college and the uncertainty of the Democratic nominee, of course. But the odds are very much against it. 

 

[BassNBrew]

Vegas is accurate. Trump has to be considered the favorite against multiple candidates. I do not believe Trump will be the favorite against one candidate (so long as it’s the one I think it will likely be.) 

Trump is huge trouble. A majority of Americans want him impeached and removed. A huge majority of Americans want witnesses at his Senate trial and if they don’t get them will consider it a whitewash. A majority of Americans believe he’s lying about an imminent attack and that killing Soleimani was dumb and makes us less safe. 

The good economy is already baked in to his approval numbers and they’re still historically low. He’s underwater in nearly every battleground state. Most Americans regard him as an embarrassment as President and their impressions are unlikely to change. Could he win? Given the electoral college and the uncertainty of the Democratic nominee, of course. But the odds are very much against it. 

If what you say is true, then Vegas isn't accurate.  The prop isn't against multiple candidates, it's against a single candidate that best the D field.  This is real money so they aren't posting odds like it's a best of seven, Trump v. Warren/Sanders/Buttigeig/Biden/Clinton/Steyer/Bloomberg

 

[timschochet]

If what you say is true, then Vegas isn't accurate.  The prop isn't against multiple candidates, it's against a single candidate that best the D field.  This is real money so they aren't posting odds like it's a best of seven, Trump v. Warren/Sanders/Buttigeig/Biden/Clinton/Steyer/Bloomberg

The problem is that Vegas doesn’t know yet who that single candidate is going to be. If it’s Warren or Sanders, then I would still have to favor Trump even with all the negatives. But not against the others. I have no idea why you have Clinton in there though. 

 

[jon_mx]

The problem is that Vegas doesn’t know yet who that single candidate is going to be. If it’s Warren or Sanders, then I would still have to favor Trump even with all the negatives. But not against the others. I have no idea why you have Clinton in there though. 

She is only 6 dead bodies away from being the candidate. 

 

[knowledge dropper]

Odds are looking at the impact of the electoral college. 
 

Nationwide polls typically aren’t. 
 

Big difference 

 

[BassNBrew]

The problem is that Vegas doesn’t know yet who that single candidate is going to be. If it’s Warren or Sanders, then I would still have to favor Trump even with all the negatives. But not against the others. I have no idea why you have Clinton in there though. 

She's in front of Klobuchar at Bovada and her name is easier to spell.  

Honestly these odds are very concerning to me.  While I believe what you're saying about Trump's issues, you're track record on being right is kind of the opposite of the track record of Vegas. 

 

[timschochet]

She's in front of Klobuchar at Bovada and her name is easier to spell.  

Honestly these odds are very concerning to me.  While I believe what you're saying about Trump's issues, you're track record on being right is kind of the opposite of the track record of Vegas. 

Actually, not trying to toot my own horn but you’re wrong. Who I root for and who I think will win are usually very different. Although I didn’t pick Trump to win in 2016 I didn’t share the confidence that Hillary would win that several other people had- I expressed great  concern and uncertainty in the FFA. 

As a general rule I’ve been pretty successful in predicting the winner of elections. Unfortunately for me it’s usually not the person I prefer. But maybe not this time. 

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

The problem is that Vegas doesn’t know yet who that single candidate is going to be. If it’s Warren or Sanders, then I would still have to favor Trump even with all the negatives. But not against the others. I have no idea why you have Clinton in there though. 

Vegas understands odds and is betting real money.  They are factoring in all these things you keep mentioning already.  They are the experts at betting lines and odds.  

 

[timschochet]

Vegas understands odds and is betting real money.  They are factoring in all these things you keep mentioning already.  They are the experts at betting lines and odds.  

Which is why I keep saying their numbers are accurate for now, and that they will change dramatically once there are only two candidates. 

 

[timschochet]

There is no flaw in what Vegas is doing; but there is a flaw in anyone who looks at those numbers and assumes that Trump will be the favorite against any single Democratic opponent. He will be the favorite against a couple but not most. 

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Which is why I keep saying their numbers are accurate for now, and that they will change dramatically once there are only two candidates. 

Dramatically?  They are betting real money now.  They are already factoring in that anyone not named Biden, Sanders, Warren, and Buttigieg are unlikely to face Trump and Trump will be favored over any of them.

 

[hagmania]

Mathematically speaking, all other (including Trump's) odds will increase as the field is diminished. That is what the vs Field odds represent.

 

[AAABatteries]

Dramatically?  They are betting real money now.  They are already factoring in that anyone not named Biden, Sanders, Warren, and Buttigieg are unlikely to face Trump and Trump will be favored over any of them.

Do they have individual head-to-head odds that confirms this?  Stating the obvious here - but it seems like their algorithm/model would be extremely complex and I could see a scenario where what Tim is saying is true - I'm passing in a variable of Sanders being the nominee which makes Trump's odds go up but if/when that gets removed it takes his odds back down.  Without knowing either direct h2h odds or how their model works I think we all are just guessing.  Not to mention, the idea that Bernie/Warren is definitely a boost to Trump's odds is debatable but for the sake of this argument I'm assuming Tim's take on that is accurate.

 

[hagmania]

You're talking past me. I'll try one last time.

If Joe Biden wins the nomination, the oddsmakers will make him the favorite to be President. If you don't believe this, I'm willing to have a wager with YOU.

This is not wise.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Do they have individual head-to-head odds that confirms this?  Stating the obvious here - but it seems like their algorithm/model would be extremely complex and I could see a scenario what Tim is saying is true - I'm passing in a variable of Sanders being the nominee which makes Trump's odds go up but if/when that gets removed it takes his odds back down.  Without knowing either direct h2h odds or how their model works I think we all are just guessing.  Not to mention, the idea that Bernie/Warren is definitely a boost to Trump's odds is debatable but for the sake of this argument I'm assuming Tim's take is accurate.

I don't know the details of what they do, obviously, but let's assume they thought Biden would be favored head to head against Trump.  Wouldn't he have much better odds right now since he's likely the Dem candidate?

But yeah, anything can change these odds from starting a war to another scandal or whatever.

 

[timschochet]

I don't know the details of what they do, obviously, but let's assume they thought Biden would be favored head to head against Trump.  Wouldn't he have much better odds right now since he's likely the Dem candidate?

No because he’s not likely to be the Dem candidate. I think he will be and he’s the likeliest person to be, but that’s not the same thing. With so many people running Biden’s odds of winning the nomination are certainly not overwhelming at this point. I don’t know what they are, maybe 40%? Much better than any other candidate but if it’s under 50% then mathematically he’s not likely is he? 

 

[timschochet]

This is not wise.

Guess we’ll find out. Nobody has chosen to take me up on this offer. 

 

[BassNBrew]

I think Tim could be right, but isn't communicating his point clearly.  If Biden polls the best against Trump and Biden only has a 40% chance of winning the primary, then Trump's numbers will look better until Biden actually wins the primary.  Assuming that Sanders has no chance to beat Trump (I don't believe this), his 20% chance of winning the D primary is currently increasing Trumps odds.  That said, you can't discount Sander's 20% chance to 0% at this time.

 

[timschochet]

I think Tim could be right, but isn't communicating his point clearly.  If Biden polls the best against Trump and Biden only has a 40% chance of winning the primary, then Trump's numbers will look better until Biden actually wins the primary.  Assuming that Sanders has no chance to beat Trump (I don't believe this), his 20% chance of winning the D primary is currently increasing Trumps odds.  That said, you can't discount Sander's 20% chance to 0% at this time.

Thank you. I don’t always make my point clearly and you did a better job than I did. 

One point though: I never asserted that Sanders has no chance to beat Trump; of course he does. I just wouldn’t make him the favorite in a head to head against Trump. I would make Biden the favorite in a head to head.