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2020 Presidential Election Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter squistion
- Start date
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/this-emperor-is-running-short-on-clothes/2018/04/20/b243b09a-44c7-11e8-ad8f-27a8c409298b_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.e150fecd0158
It’s becoming clear that Trump won’t run in 2020 By Joe Scarborough
It’s becoming clear that Trump won’t run in 2020 By Joe Scarborough
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timschochet
Footballguy
Meet Erik Garcetti, Los Angeles mayor: Jewish Italian Mexican American:
https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/21/politics/eric-garcetti-la-mayor-iowa-south-carolina/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/21/politics/eric-garcetti-la-mayor-iowa-south-carolina/index.html
Riversco
Footballguy
The #1 political issue in the nation is loss of trust in government and no leadership at all in government. Trump's approval is down, but the approval rating of any possible democrat challenger isn't going to be very good either. People feel their vote matters less than ever. The people are angry and upset. There is no candidate that can bring the people together.
Ditka Butkus
Footballguy
U.S. House of Representative...Scott Taylor.....
timschochet
Footballguy
Ditka Butkus
Footballguy
I don't think he supports a ban on Muslims...He is definitely strong on National Security/Immigration.. (due to his military background and his actual real life experience in that region of the world). I don't know what defines a Trumper....Maybe you can clarify that...Thanks
timschochet
Footballguy
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Taylor_(politician)
Taylor supported President Donald Trump's 2017 executive order to impose a temporary ban on entry to the U.S. to citizens of seven Muslim-majority countries.
A Trumper, (definition mine) is a Republican politician who supports President Trump on a majority of issues, particularly with regard to his anti-immigrant, anti-globalist agenda.
timschochet
Footballguy
But to be honest, DB, personally I can never vote for ANY Republican, no matter what level, until the day that Trump is treated as a pariah. They don't need to formally repudiate him but they need to regard him as they did Joe McCarthy after 1955 or so: as persona non grata. The anti-globalist, anti-immigrant agenda has to be eliminated as well, and the ties to the NRA and pro-gun extremists. If these changes never happen I will never vote GOP again.
squistion
Footballguy
NEW POLL: Biden leads Trump by 7 points in hypothetical 2020 matchup
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/399820-biden-tops-trump-by-7-points-in-hypothetical-2020-matchup-poll
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/399820-biden-tops-trump-by-7-points-in-hypothetical-2020-matchup-poll
Calvitron Johnson
Footballguy
squistion
Footballguy
Nate Silver has pointed out repeatedly that most were in the margin of error, Mr. Alias.
Gopher State
Footballguy
squistion
Footballguy
Trump did not prepare an acceptance speech, so he and his campaign thought they were accurate too.
Polls taken before a major presidential election are generally pretty accurate (as was the case in 2016). Polls taken two years beforehand when the nominees aren't even set yet are meaningless and only measure name recognition.
bagger
Footballguy
The most striking thing about election night was the truly dumbfounded and terrified look on trumps face coming out on stage to give his acceptance speech. You know he was already halfway through talks with a new media outlet or whatever scam he concoted to profit from his run. He had no idea he would even be in the realm of winning.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
Very well spoken and I agree with almost all of that. I don’t know his policy position but I would agree it would be nice to have him represent the Republicans.
timschochet
Footballguy
I am quite confident that the public's attitude about Donald Trump in November of 2020 will have no relationship to their opinion of him at this current time.
squistion
Footballguy
If it has a cumulative effect on public perception, then yes it could. His approval ratings have been gradually eroding and there may be a point of no return that is reached among independents or anyone but his hard core base that he can't come back from.
timschochet
Footballguy
I think we're looking at a blue wave this November. After that, the two key questions become, how will Trump work with a Democratic majority? And how will a Democratic majority work with Trump?
Then there are 4 more questions: Will the Mueller investigation indict Trump, exonerate Trump, or something in between? Will there be, between now and 2020, some kind of international crisis and how will Trump respond to it? Will there be a Republican challenger to Trump in the primaries? Will a progressive or a centrist win the Democratic nomination?
Until we know the answer to these 6 questions, until we see everything play out, there's really no way to know whether or not public perception will be lasting.
toshiba
Footballguy
squistion
Footballguy
So now that the 2018 mid-terms are over, let's turn our attention once again to the 2020 Presidential race.
What are your thoughts as to who will be the Democratic candidate opposing Trump?
Seems a lot of interest in Biden, but he may be too old. I doubt Warren will run. Harris and Booker look interesting but I am not sure how a minority candidate would play given the mood of the electorate.
How bout for a fresh face, Beto O' Rourke?
What are your thoughts as to who will be the Democratic candidate opposing Trump?
Seems a lot of interest in Biden, but he may be too old. I doubt Warren will run. Harris and Booker look interesting but I am not sure how a minority candidate would play given the mood of the electorate.
How bout for a fresh face, Beto O' Rourke?
-fish-
Footballguy
Jay Inslee of Washington may be one of the frontrunners. Washington couldn't pass the carbon fee initiative that he backed, but I don't think that's going to be fatal to a campaign.
He's 67 but youthful-ish, well-spoken and chair of the Democratic Governor's Association. Washington has been economically successful with him as Governor, running a budget surplus. His main focus is climate issues, but he's been good for education and has kept a legislature that loves raising taxes largely in check. He served in the House of Representatives, and hasn't been part of any major scandals. Has been a major Trump critic and under him Washington was the first to sue to block the travel ban.
He's 67 but youthful-ish, well-spoken and chair of the Democratic Governor's Association. Washington has been economically successful with him as Governor, running a budget surplus. His main focus is climate issues, but he's been good for education and has kept a legislature that loves raising taxes largely in check. He served in the House of Representatives, and hasn't been part of any major scandals. Has been a major Trump critic and under him Washington was the first to sue to block the travel ban.
squistion
Footballguy
Sorry to disappoint the fantasy of Hillary haters in the other thread (like Mr. Ham) but your favorite chew toy, Hillary Clinton, will not be running in 2020.
Despite what ex-aide Mark Penn says, I don't foresee any circumstances under which Hillary will be a viable Presidential candidate again. She simply no longer has the support of rank and file Democrats. It is not going to happen.
Despite what ex-aide Mark Penn says, I don't foresee any circumstances under which Hillary will be a viable Presidential candidate again. She simply no longer has the support of rank and file Democrats. It is not going to happen.
toshiba
Footballguy
I hear pundits talking about Biden, but I don't hear it among the democrats I talk about this stuff with.
I think after looking at the 2018 mid-terms a Midwest Female would be a great bold to fill if a qualified, intelligent and articulate candidate comes forward.
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squistion
Footballguy
In the meantime I still like this California Female.
Kamala Harris at Glamour Women of the Year Awards:
"Years from now, people are going to look in our eyes, each one of us, and they will ask us where were you at that inflection moment. And what we're all going to be able to say is … We were fighting for the best of who we are."
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1062192191924326400 (video clip at link).
squistion
Footballguy
Silver was one of the few pundits/pollsters who was telling everyone right before the 2016 election to put on the breaks for a Hillary victory celebration, as he thought a Trump victory was still in play due to the margin of error. He has never been one to hedge his bets to save his patootie.
toshiba
Footballguy
No because generally people are idiots when it comes to statistics and mathematics and don't understand probabilities and polls. I think his problem is that he is trying to market statistics to the mathematically illiterate.
sho nuff
Footballguy
No...because its factual. The people who continue to complain about polls are the ones that continue to show their lack of understanding of statistical analysis. Also interesting they are usually the people that tout Rasmussen polling on favorability of Trump.
squistion
Footballguy
If your only go to polling reference is the proven outlier Rasmussen that can only be characterized as spin.
sho nuff
Footballguy
Idiot Boxer
Footballguy
If you want to vote for a honorable, upstanding conservative, Evan McMullen is your guy.
squistion
Footballguy
Nate Silver @NateSilver538 30m30 minutes ago
Most likely winners of the 2020 election, according to prediction markets:
1. Donald Trump
2. Kamala Harris
3. BETO
https://electionbettingodds.com/
Most likely winners of the 2020 election, according to prediction markets:
1. Donald Trump
2. Kamala Harris
3. BETO
https://electionbettingodds.com/
squistion
Footballguy
Makes sense. Even if Trump were to drop out, Ryan still doesn't stand a chance, his political career will never recover from his spineless House leadership role.
Which one do you think should be favored? I’d give The Rock a small edge, but I think they’re pretty close.Bucky86 said:
That website has The Rock with the same percentage as Paul Ryan.
joffer
Footballguy
squistion
Footballguy
Nebraska Democratic Party 
Verified account @NebraskaDems 1h1 hour ago
The NDP State Central Committee meets next week in Ord, where we will vote on whether to hold a Caucus or a Primary for the 2020 Presidential Election.
Let us know your thoughts on the issue and how we can build the party by taking our survey!
https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSdYCeu9v8DBc2kQz0JxeVuyWt37qV7IZtsPVtTGZzMkOkc6Aw/viewform
Verified account @NebraskaDems 1h1 hour agoThe NDP State Central Committee meets next week in Ord, where we will vote on whether to hold a Caucus or a Primary for the 2020 Presidential Election.
Let us know your thoughts on the issue and how we can build the party by taking our survey!
https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSdYCeu9v8DBc2kQz0JxeVuyWt37qV7IZtsPVtTGZzMkOkc6Aw/viewform
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
I think the Dems would be wise to run Amy Klobuchar for President. She has moderate Democratic appeal, , is very smart, and likable. I live in MN and most of the people here love her. She has a much better chance of beating Trump than the too far left leaning candidates such as Harris, Sanders, Booker and Warren. While we're at it, she's a better choice than Beto also.
ETA: As a Republican and if I had to be satisfied with a Democrat President, it would be Amy Klobuchar.
ETA: As a Republican and if I had to be satisfied with a Democrat President, it would be Amy Klobuchar.
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TobiasFunke
Footballguy
joffer
Footballguy
squistion
Footballguy
She seems intelligent and a very nice person, but as I mentioned in another thread, she is pretty much lacking in charisma. I find her rather colorless (so to speak). If she would be the nominee I have trouble seeing Democrats getting that fired up over her, outside of the fact that she is not Trump. I don't think she would generate the enthusiasm a candidate like Beto would (or perhaps Harris).
I could see Beto generating excitement among younger people similar to what John Kennedy did in 1960. I have talked to people who were young Democrats then, and they viewed JFK as one of them and candidate of generational change and he inspired hope in them for the future and drove them to the polls. It remains to be seen in Beto can pull off that trick as he is relatively untested on the national stage (not sure how much to count his race/campaign against Cruz).
IC FBGCav
Footballguy
squistion
Footballguy
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/joe-biden-i-m-most-qualified-person-country-be-president-n943411
Joe Biden: 'I'm the most qualified person in the country to be president'
WASHINGTON — Former Vice President Joe Biden on Monday said his decision on whether to enter the 2020 presidential race will rest on a whether he and his family are "ready," even as he argued that his strengths as a potential candidate far outweigh any perceived liabilities.
Biden’s comments came during a brief tour promoting the paperback release of his 2017 memoir, "Promise Me, Dad," in which he details how the death of his eldest son, Beau, from brain cancer kept him out of the 2016 presidential race.
"I think I’m the most qualified person in the country to be president. The issues that we face as a country today are the issues that I’ve worked on my whole life — the plight of the middle class and foreign policy," Biden told an audience in Montana, according to The Missoula Current. "But my family and I need to decide as a unit whether we’re ready — we do everything as a family."
Biden was asked about factors that may hurt him if he runs — his reputation for gaffes among them.
"I may be a gaffe machine, but my God, what a wonderful thing compared to a guy who can’t tell the truth," he said. "No one doubts what I say, the problem is I sometimes say all that I mean. The question is what kind of nation are we becoming?"
Biden said his decision would come in the next six weeks to two months, according to a CNN report, in line with the timeline he offered when discussing his plans on Election Day.
[...]
Joe Biden: 'I'm the most qualified person in the country to be president'
WASHINGTON — Former Vice President Joe Biden on Monday said his decision on whether to enter the 2020 presidential race will rest on a whether he and his family are "ready," even as he argued that his strengths as a potential candidate far outweigh any perceived liabilities.
Biden’s comments came during a brief tour promoting the paperback release of his 2017 memoir, "Promise Me, Dad," in which he details how the death of his eldest son, Beau, from brain cancer kept him out of the 2016 presidential race.
"I think I’m the most qualified person in the country to be president. The issues that we face as a country today are the issues that I’ve worked on my whole life — the plight of the middle class and foreign policy," Biden told an audience in Montana, according to The Missoula Current. "But my family and I need to decide as a unit whether we’re ready — we do everything as a family."
Biden was asked about factors that may hurt him if he runs — his reputation for gaffes among them.
"I may be a gaffe machine, but my God, what a wonderful thing compared to a guy who can’t tell the truth," he said. "No one doubts what I say, the problem is I sometimes say all that I mean. The question is what kind of nation are we becoming?"
Biden said his decision would come in the next six weeks to two months, according to a CNN report, in line with the timeline he offered when discussing his plans on Election Day.
[...]
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