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2021-22 NBA Thread: Bill Simmons furiously recording 2.5 hour long pod about how Boston is still better than Golden State (2 Viewers)

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gruecd said:
Definitely no "unconditional love" here for Grayson.  I just didn't remember anything from his pro career prior to the Caruso incident, and I was willing to chalk up the college stuff to youthful indiscretion.  Either way, for one reason or another, the idea of Grayson Allen being a "thug" makes me chuckle.
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It depends on your definition of thug. Maybe it is the wrong word. Maybe just dirty or something else. 

 
i haven't had my coffee but running back game 1 Mil@Bos with no sound... well, music. I think the Bucks are going to repeat. Enough so I have a good size bet in the cart at +550. If they win today it drops. If they lose it goes up a smidge. What to do. Make coffee and watch GS and Pho closer, I guess.

 
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Chaos Commish said:
i haven't had my coffee but running back game 1 Mil@Bos with no sound... well, music. I think the Bucks are going to repeat. Enough so I have a good size bet in the cart at +550. If they win today it drops. If they lose it goes up a smidge. What to do. Make coffee and watch GS and Pho closer, I guess.
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If the Bucks can get past the Celtics without Middleton, the confidence level with the squad raises even more.  Then Middleton back in the fold for the next series.

 
I'm 50% confident in Boston winning this one tonight.

Unless they come up with some scheme that gets some easier buckets, I don't see them getting one in Milwaukee, which would mean the Bucks in 5 or 6.

Udoka about to show how good of a coach he really is tonight.

 
Jayrod said:
I'm 50% confident in Boston winning this one tonight.

Unless they come up with some scheme that gets some easier buckets, I don't see them getting one in Milwaukee, which would mean the Bucks in 5 or 6.

Udoka about to show how good of a coach he really is tonight.
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dunno if i'd lay 4 1/2 but, if Maaaacus Smaaaat gives em 30+, we should turn it around on em tonite. Bucks still the champs and Celts still the upstarts, tho.

ETA: As i been pounding the last few years, playoff series are about solving more than shooting. Bucks might not have solved the Nets, Celts may not solve the Bucks, and either may not have the key to beat the next in line. that's the good part of all this, esp since there are fewer StarHogs in play now than in any playoffs in memory

 
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Bucks playing with house money tonight, whereas the Celts are gonna have the ol' lemon booty.  With Floppy McFlopperstein and Jaylen Brown both banged up, it's hard to see them winning, but crazier things have happened.  Either way, all the pressure on the Celts tonight...

 
wikkidpissah said:
dunno if i'd lay 4 1/2 but, if Maaaacus Smaaaat gives em 30+, we should turn it around on em tonite. Bucks still the champs and Celts still the upstarts, tho.

ETA: As i been pounding the last few years, playoff series are about solving more than shooting. Bucks might not have solved the Nets, Celts may not solve the Bucks, and either may not have the key to beat the next in line. that's the good part of all this, esp since there are fewer StarHogs in play now than in any playoffs in memory
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I assume you mean minutes?  The last time Smart scored 30 points was 2/13/2020.

 
Celts even it up tonight.  Didn't they set the record for fewest 2-point shots in NBA Playoff history in game 1?   That's an outlier. Backed into a corner, they pull it out.  I even think they cover the 5 point spread.

 
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Just a bunch of zags, an exercise I do to see if I may be overreacting to any one result. Some of these are inevitably stupid, they're meant to be. Something we used to do as coaches when prepping for opponents:

  • Did the Celtics just get kind of lucky against the Nets in a bunch of close games? And we all overrated the Nets too?
  • Is Middleton that important, or was the difference always Holiday?
  • Are the Suns just on a hot streak shooting?
  • Is Ayton the best player on Phoenix?
  • Are the Heat good or just dominating bad teams (i.e., Embiid back means Philly win)?
  • Can Dallas just switch more and be fine?
  • Is the key to beating Dallas to just let Luka go off and stay home on everyone else?
  • Jalen Brunson still can't do it in the playoffs - Utah is just bad and someone's about to WAY overpay him (Hello NYK!)
  • Brunson had an off night with foul trouble but coudl just as easily drop 30 next game
  • Jimmy Butler is just a guard version of Dwight Howard - a jackass nobody likes who had one finals run and never got it done in the playoffs again
  • Milwaukee just got hot for a night at the same time Boston went cold
  • Phoenix is actually garbage when Paul's off the court, but they could lose anyone else and be fine
 
Instinctive said:
Just a bunch of zags, an exercise I do to see if I may be overreacting to any one result. Some of these are inevitably stupid, they're meant to be. Something we used to do as coaches when prepping for opponents:

  • Did the Celtics just get kind of lucky against the Nets in a bunch of close games? And we all overrated the Nets too? I watched every play of this series. 1st game was the only "lucky" one, rest were won by a good team. (The Nets were a tough 7, but not really a top 3 seed level with an older KD, out of sorts KI & garbage bench)
  • Is Middleton that important, or was the difference always Holiday? Both are important, but Holiday moreso
  • Are the Suns just on a hot streak shooting? Last night they were, but they get consistently good looks for good shooters in their preferred spots, hence the best record in the NBA.
  • Is Ayton the best player on Phoenix? He's #4 behind Booker, Paul & Bridges.
  • Are the Heat good or just dominating bad teams (i.e., Embiid back means Philly win)? Philly would lose with Embiid, but the Heat aren't as good as Boston or Milwaukee and lose in the ECF, barring injury of course.
  • Can Dallas just switch more and be fine? No idea, but I'd like to see them try.
  • Is the key to beating Dallas to just let Luka go off and stay home on everyone else? It could work as long as you keep a fresh quality defender on him, like Phoenix has.
  • Jalen Brunson still can't do it in the playoffs - Utah is just bad and someone's about to WAY overpay him (Hello NYK!) He's really good and a top 1/2 starting PG in the league
  • Brunson had an off night with foul trouble but could just as easily drop 30 next game. I believe this.  He's been great all season, really.
  • Jimmy Butler is just a guard version of Dwight Howard - a jackass nobody likes who had one finals run and never got it done in the playoffs again. Butler is more liked than Howard and could easily get the Heat to another Finals if Boston or Milwaukee have a key injury, but Butler is a 3rd team all-NBA guy.  Really, really good, but never top 10 great.
  • Milwaukee just got hot for a night at the same time Boston went cold. Not so much hot/cold, but played well vs bad in multiple aspects.  Don't expect the Bucks to win every game like this.
  • Phoenix is actually garbage when Paul's off the court, but they could lose anyone else and be fine. The only way they win a championship is with Booker/Paul/Ayton/Bridges all healthy unless their opponent also loses someone major to injury.  They aren't beating a healthy Golden State, Milwaukee or Boston without all 4.
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My thoughts in red.

 
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Instinctive said:
Just a bunch of zags, an exercise I do to see if I may be overreacting to any one result. Some of these are inevitably stupid, they're meant to be. Something we used to do as coaches when prepping for opponents:

  • Did the Celtics just get kind of lucky against the Nets in a bunch of close games? And we all overrated the Nets too?
  • Is Middleton that important, or was the difference always Holiday?
  • Are the Suns just on a hot streak shooting?
  • Is Ayton the best player on Phoenix?
  • Are the Heat good or just dominating bad teams (i.e., Embiid back means Philly win)?
  • Can Dallas just switch more and be fine?
  • Is the key to beating Dallas to just let Luka go off and stay home on everyone else?
  • Jalen Brunson still can't do it in the playoffs - Utah is just bad and someone's about to WAY overpay him (Hello NYK!)
  • Brunson had an off night with foul trouble but coudl just as easily drop 30 next game
  • Jimmy Butler is just a guard version of Dwight Howard - a jackass nobody likes who had one finals run and never got it done in the playoffs again
  • Milwaukee just got hot for a night at the same time Boston went cold
  • Phoenix is actually garbage when Paul's off the court, but they could lose anyone else and be fine
Click to expand...


1. Yes well all overrated the Nets. No the Celtics didn't get lucky. When you don't play at least some defense you tend to lose close games. If you played this series 10 times without injuries the best the Nets do is lose in 6 and I think most of the time they lose in 5. 

2. I don't think it is an either/or. I don't think they win the title last year without Jrue. I don't think they win the title this year if Middleton doesn't come back. 

3. No. They are a well oiled machine and it is going to take an injury or a monster performance from another team to beat them. 

4. Nope. Paul, Booker and the Sun's shooting make his life easy. He is still good though. Not best player on a championship level team good. 

5.  Both for Miami. I think it will be too late once Embiid comes back. 

6. Not against any team with playoff experience. 

7. I think that works. Like the 2000's Pistons used too. 

8. Brunson is a good player. 3rd or 4th option on a championship team. Not as good as he is about to be paid. 

9. Disagree. I think Butler is a more athletic, but worse shooting version of Chris Paul. He is super competitive and will do anything to win and just like Paul he probably needs to be the number 2 or 3 option to win a title. 

10. Possibly. I think everyone is over reacting after 1 game. I think this same scenario played out a few years ago when Boston took game 1 from the Bucks and the the Bucks proceeded to win the next 4. Not saying that happens here, but I would be surprised if this doesn't go at least 6. 

11. Disagree slightly. Are they still a title team without Paul? Probably not. They would still be a top 6 team in the west if they lost Paul for a season and had everyone else. 

Great post btw. 

 
My title rankings right now:

  1. Phoenix - yeah, yeah, yeah...they lost 2 to NOLA. They just handled Dallas and will win this series in 5 or 6.  They have offense, defense, leadership and depth.  Without losing any of their top 4 guys, they are the best team in the NBA.
  2. Milwaukee - Giannis is the best player in the world when he is playing hard for 35-40 minutes/game.  Holiday is a great defender and a good offensive player.  Lopez is a great stretch 5 and Portis is a versatile addition.  Get Middleton with his scoring and defensive length back and they are a title contender again.  Until Boston beats them, they stay here.
  3. Golden State - Curry, Thompson & now Poole...an embarrassment of riches coupled with a DPOY level #### stirrer in Draymond and they can beat anyone.  I think they are a tad less consistent than the 2 teams above and are prone to gaffs/injuries/suspensions that can cost them a game/series.
  4. Boston - They belong in the conversation as a team with 2 great scorers and great team defense.  If they can take advantage of the Middleton injury have a good shot to make the Finals.  Have to win tonight or the sky is falling.
  5. Heat - Pretty low for a #1 seed with no major injuries, but they are the epitome of good not great.  If any of the above teams play their A game, the Heat can't hang.  But play your B game and they will beat you every time.
  6. Memphis - Ja and company are fun, exciting, energetic and athletic.  But they are dumb and just don't know how to get it done in the playoffs yet.  I think GS beats them in 5 or 6 and it is never in doubt.
  7. Dallas - Luka is good enough and the defense will show up better than game 1.  I don't know about Kidd as a championship coach and I don't know if they have enough firepower on offense to help Luka win a championship.  Awful lot of hurdles to jump to get into the legit conversation.
  8. Philly - I may have had them here even without the Embiid injury.  With it, they are the worst team left in the playoffs and will probably get swept by a good, not great, Heat team.
 
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Jayrod said:
My title rankings right now:

  1. Phoenix - yeah, yeah, yeah...they lost 2 to NOLA. They just handled Dallas and will win this series in 5 or 6.  They have offense, defense, leadership and depth.  Without losing any of their top 4 guys, they are the best team in the NBA.
  2. Milwaukee - Giannis is the best player in the world when he is playing hard for 35-40 minutes/game.  Holiday is a great defender and a good defensive player.  Lopez is a great stretch 5 and Portis is a versatile addition.  Get Middleton with his scoring and defensive length back and they are a title contender again.  Until Boston beats them, they stay here.
  3. Golden State - Curry, Thompson & now Poole...an embarrassment of riches coupled with a DPOY level #### stirrer in Draymond and they can beat anyone.  I think they are a tad less consistent than the 2 teams above and are prone to gaffs/injuries/suspensions that can cost them a game/series.
  4. Boston - They belong in the conversation as a team with 2 great scorers and great team defense.  If they can take advantage of the Middleton injury have a good shot to make the Finals.  Have to win tonight or the sky is falling.
  5. Heat - Pretty low for a #1 seed with no major injuries, but they are the epitome of good not great.  If any of the above teams play their A game, the Heat can't hang.  But play your B game and they will beat you every time.
  6. Memphis - Ja and company are fun, exciting, energetic and athletic.  But they are dumb and just don't know how to get it done in the playoffs yet.  I think GS beats them in 5 or 6 and it is never in doubt.
  7. Dallas - Luka is good enough and the defense will show up better than game 1.  I don't know about Kidd as a championship coach and I don't know if they have enough firepower on offense to help Luka win a championship.  Awful lot of hurdles to jump to get into the legit conversation.
  8. Philly - I may have had them here even without the Embiid injury.  With it, they are the worst team left in the playoffs and will probably get swept by a good, not great, Heat team.
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Great list. I think the Warriors and Celtics are 3 and 3A. 5 through 7 might as well all be the same. 

 
Jayrod said:
My title rankings right now:

Heat - Pretty low for a #1 seed with no major injuries, but they are the epitome of good not great.  If any of the above teams play their A game, the Heat can't hang.  But play your B game and they will beat you every time.

Dallas - Luka is good enough and the defense will show up better than game 1.  I don't know about Kidd as a championship coach and I don't know if they have enough firepower on offense to help Luka win a championship.  Awful lot of hurdles to jump to get into the legit conversation.
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In my brain, Bam is the only advantage Miami has as a team here. Luka does so much more on offense than Butler, and Dallas' role players are better on D than Miami's by a lot also. Is Bam worth that much? I'd pick Dallas in a series vs Miami. 

 
Bucks getting kicked square in the nuts early. Can’t imagine the Celts keep shooting like this. At least I hope not…

 
This is the worst the Bucks have played all year. By far. They really miss Middleton tonight.

Also, SVG loves the Celtics.

 
msudaisy26 said:
I am getting good at this. Last night I said I liked the fight the 76ers are showing. They were down 9 and then they went scoreless for 5 minutes and were down 24 in a flash. Just a heads up for all you bettors out there to just go against me and make it rich. 
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Double reverse jinx

Bucks run out the quarter

 
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