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2021 Buffalo Bills - Same as it ever was*** (2 Viewers)

Good news guys! Remember that big 25 yard pass interference penalty on Robey right before the long TD pass to Maclin before halftime? Well, the NFL has notified the Bills that it was a blown call and that no PI should have been called. Isn't that great!?

 
Good news guys! Remember that big 25 yard pass interference penalty on Robey right before the long TD pass to Maclin before halftime? Well, the NFL has notified the Bills that it was a blown call and that no PI should have been called. Isn't that great!?
I, for one, feel much better.

 
BTW, the same exact crew was the one that called the phantom PI penalty on Robey against the Jags that allowed the Jags to score their game winning TD.

 
So what are we thinking for this weekend? Inspirational return home after a long road trip sees the team claw their way back to 6-6 and stay in the playoff mix? Or disappointing poor performance, fans start to turn on the team and they fall to 5-7 and are all but eliminated?

 
So what are we thinking for this weekend? Inspirational return home after a long road trip sees the team claw their way back to 6-6 and stay in the playoff mix? Or disappointing poor performance, fans start to turn on the team and they fall to 5-7 and are all but eliminated?
Depends how often Mario, Jerry and Marcel are dropping in coverage.

A bunch of holes and injuries could hurt. I'm surprised the game hasn't moved to a pick'em in Vegas to be honest.

I get the home team gets three points, but the Texas D is hot and outside of Sammy/McCoy the role players haven't been stepping up consistant enough.

 
Good news: some of the results went the Bills way today...Jets, Dolphins, Raiders lose. It will cushion the blow a bit after tomorrow's loss.

Bad news: Chiefs have won 4 straight and the Bills have to go to Arrowhead next week. Visiting a hot team with playoff implications on the line. How will the Bills show?
Yeah, those teams lost, but I think the Bills will be competing against the Steelers, Chiefs, and Texans/Colts, based on schedules. Next week's game could be the deciding factor... Very important two games coming up, starting tomorrow night.
I'm still having trouble taking the AFC South seriously. I will be stunned if they get 2 teams in the playoffs. I'm still thinking Steelers, Jets, and now the Chiefs will be in the hunt for the long-run.
They have two in as of right now.

This is going to be really tough for the Bills. It's very possible the week 17 game won't be a play-in for either team. A few weeks ago I would have almost guaranteed one of those two would get in.

 
I'll be honest: I'm beginning to have some doubts about Tyrod.

I love his poise and courage, but his field vision isn't that great.
Ditto.

I really wonder what this team would look like with Cassel, who seemed to have really good chemistry with the receivers. He made his reads, and delivered the ball accurately to get it in the hands of the play-makers. I still say this wasn't a team that needed a play-maker at QB. A field general would have fit perfectly.
I totally disagree with this. If your defense is going to give up 30 against a pretty average team, you need a guy who can make plays at QB. Cassel just isn't that guy (or Orton).
The defense wouldn't be giving up 30 points per game if their offense could sustain some drives and not just rely on big plays.

The Bills are ranked #29 in the league in first downs. That's terrible for an offense with this kind of talent. Overall, I don't think Tyrod's legs have really had that much impact lately. Also, his scrambling got him hurt, which cost the team a couple wins. I'm not giving up on him. I hope he continues to improve. I just think this offense is a better fit for a field general type QB.

 
You also need to play smart. That roughing the passer penalty on 55 late in the game was one of the dumbest penalties I have ever seen, but it sums up a Rex Ryan team in a nutshell. Zero discipline.
I don't think that was even among the dumbest penalties committed by Jerry Hughes personally. Kind of sad to say that.
Might not even be in the top 10. He has to be the dumbest player in the league.
Von Miller and Ndamukong Sue are right up there for stupid late hits, etc.

 
Horrible coaching. Rex blew 3 challenges - 1 he tried & 2 he didn't. D gets lit by Smith & Maclin?! After great start on O, the D let them down again.
I still can't fathom how Tyrod tossed it up to Sammy with such great success in the first half, and didn't even try it once in the second half. I just don't get it. It's not like it was all busted coverages in the first half. The DBs were there. Sammy just made the plays. How do you not just throw it up to him a couple times in the second? Who cares if they are even intercepted.

Half time:

Rex: Greg, you're a genius.

Greg: See, I told you it would work!

Rex: It sure did. That should really loosen up the box, so we can ground and pound in the second half.

Greg: Exactly!

 
I also hate how games like yesterday ruin my desire to watch football. I turned off the game yesterday after the 4th down challenge and didn't watch a single minute of football or check any scores thereafter. Turns out I missed what was apparently a very good SNF game. Thanks, Bills.
I am going through the same thing. After that game, for the first time all year I didn't even care who was playing in the 4:00 games. I just turned it off and went and did chores for a couple hours. It's slowly getting tougher and tougher to justify my time spent following this team/sport.

 
Grigs Allmoon said:
Horrible coaching. Rex blew 3 challenges - 1 he tried & 2 he didn't. D gets lit by Smith & Maclin?! After great start on O, the D let them down again.
I still can't fathom how Tyrod tossed it up to Sammy with such great success in the first half, and didn't even try it once in the second half. I just don't get it. It's not like it was all busted coverages in the first half. The DBs were there. Sammy just made the plays. How do you not just throw it up to him a couple times in the second? Who cares if they are even intercepted.

Half time:

Rex: Greg, you're a genius.

Greg: See, I told you it would work!

Rex: It sure did. That should really loosen up the box, so we can ground and pound in the second half.

Greg: Exactly!
To be fair, the Chiefs made an adjustment at halftime with their free safety. They had him lining up in the center of the field in the first half. In the second half, they mostly had him lining up near the sideline wherever Sammy was.

 
Remember how everyone outside of Buffalo acted like the blown call at the end of the Patriots game didn't matter. It would have at least been nice to have a CHANCE for what happened last night.

 
Well, this might not work out all that well. Looks like Jordan Mills will get the start at RT this week. PFF rated Mills as the worst tackle in the league last year. Oh, and they're only playing against the best pass rusher of his generation.

Tyrod might die on Sunday.

 
I'm just terrified after the ways that Cleveland and Detroit just lost games that Buffalo is going to try and stake their claim as a cursed franchise with another gut wrencher.

 
Gotta say, it is kinda neat that we have one of the longest team threads on here. The Lions thread is 47 pages on page 1...we have 2.5x that. Good crowd here :hifive:

 
Horrible coaching. Rex blew 3 challenges - 1 he tried & 2 he didn't. D gets lit by Smith & Maclin?! After great start on O, the D let them down again.
I still can't fathom how Tyrod tossed it up to Sammy with such great success in the first half, and didn't even try it once in the second half. I just don't get it. It's not like it was all busted coverages in the first half. The DBs were there. Sammy just made the plays. How do you not just throw it up to him a couple times in the second? Who cares if they are even intercepted.

Half time:

Rex: Greg, you're a genius.

Greg: See, I told you it would work!

Rex: It sure did. That should really loosen up the box, so we can ground and pound in the second half.

Greg: Exactly!
To be fair, the Chiefs made an adjustment at halftime with their free safety. They had him lining up in the center of the field in the first half. In the second half, they mostly had him lining up near the sideline wherever Sammy was.
You sure? I recall seeing safety help on nearly every one of Sammy's deep catches.

 
Horrible coaching. Rex blew 3 challenges - 1 he tried & 2 he didn't. D gets lit by Smith & Maclin?! After great start on O, the D let them down again.
I still can't fathom how Tyrod tossed it up to Sammy with such great success in the first half, and didn't even try it once in the second half. I just don't get it. It's not like it was all busted coverages in the first half. The DBs were there. Sammy just made the plays. How do you not just throw it up to him a couple times in the second? Who cares if they are even intercepted.

Half time:

Rex: Greg, you're a genius.

Greg: See, I told you it would work!

Rex: It sure did. That should really loosen up the box, so we can ground and pound in the second half.

Greg: Exactly!
To be fair, the Chiefs made an adjustment at halftime with their free safety. They had him lining up in the center of the field in the first half. In the second half, they mostly had him lining up near the sideline wherever Sammy was.
You sure? I recall seeing safety help on nearly every one of Sammy's deep catches.
This guy does the best breakdowns of Bills games/plays of anyone I know on the internet. Read through his timeline and check out the gifs he tweeted from 3 days ago about the offense.

Check out @YardsPerPass's Tweet: https://twitter.com/YardsPerPass/status/671719256535494657?s=09

 
Horrible coaching. Rex blew 3 challenges - 1 he tried & 2 he didn't. D gets lit by Smith & Maclin?! After great start on O, the D let them down again.
I still can't fathom how Tyrod tossed it up to Sammy with such great success in the first half, and didn't even try it once in the second half. I just don't get it. It's not like it was all busted coverages in the first half. The DBs were there. Sammy just made the plays. How do you not just throw it up to him a couple times in the second? Who cares if they are even intercepted.

Half time:

Rex: Greg, you're a genius.

Greg: See, I told you it would work!

Rex: It sure did. That should really loosen up the box, so we can ground and pound in the second half.

Greg: Exactly!
To be fair, the Chiefs made an adjustment at halftime with their free safety. They had him lining up in the center of the field in the first half. In the second half, they mostly had him lining up near the sideline wherever Sammy was.
You sure? I recall seeing safety help on nearly every one of Sammy's deep catches.
This guy does the best breakdowns of Bills games/plays of anyone I know on the internet. Read through his timeline and check out the gifs he tweeted from 3 days ago about the offense.

Check out @YardsPerPass's Tweet: https://twitter.com/YardsPerPass/status/671719256535494657?s=09
I don't buy it. Among other things... Bump and run on deep routes with a guy like Watkins, and a S over the top is pretty much 1 on 1 with that Safety.

I wish I had enough time to review all-22s...

 
Are the starting RG and RT out this week? How are their replacements? How does Shady deal with this? Where does he make the most of his plays?

 
Sarlakticacid said:
Are the starting RG and RT out this week? How are their replacements? How does Shady deal with this? Where does he make the most of his plays?
The RG John Miller has been out a few weeks. The starting RT Henderson is a turnstile anyway. It can't get much worse. In fact, I'll go nuts if the Bills don't draft a OT in the first round next year. I could see a linebacker, perhaps, but Henderson needs to go.

 
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Sarlakticacid said:
Are the starting RG and RT out this week? How are their replacements? How does Shady deal with this? Where does he make the most of his plays?
The RG John Miller has been out a few weeks. The starting RT Henderson is a turnstile anyway. It can't get much worse. In fact, I'll go nuts if the Bills don't draft a OT in the first round next year. I could see a linebacker, perhaps, but Henderson needs to go.
Bills aren't going to have a choice about drafting an OT. Cordy Glenn is almost guaranteed to be leaving via FA.

 
Gilmore likely out for the year just crushing.

We own most tiebreakers with Pitt

3-1 we are in. Loss has to be vs NFC

Pitt has to go 3-2

Conceding KC as the 5, We own tie breaker with Houston and can be a game behind the Jets as we play them.

Pittsburgh has to drop 2 if we go 9-7

 
No clue where you guys getting this stuff. Every simulation I can find has us out if Pittsburgh's only loss is @Cincy.
Just screwed around with 1 and managed to get the Bills in with a 3-1 finish. Longshot but possible.

KC wins out

Bills 3-1 with w over Jets

Jets 2-2 with losses against Patriots and Bills

Steelers 2-2 with losses against Bengals and Broncos

Texans 2-2

Colts 3-1 (including win over Texans - though if this game is flipped it doesn't impact the Bills odds)

If you flip that Steelers/Broncos game it knocks the Bills out. The 9-7 Bills would be at 13-3 Denver the way I have it worked out now. I don't think it's gonna happen but it's not impossible.

 
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No clue where you guys getting this stuff. Every simulation I can find has us out if Pittsburgh's only loss is @Cincy.
Just screwed around with 1 and managed to get the Bills in with a 3-1 finish. Longshot but possible.

KC wins out

Bills 3-1 with w over Jets

Jets 2-2 with losses against Patriots and Bills

Steelers 2-2 with losses against Bengals and Broncos

Texans 2-2

Colts 3-1 (including win over Texans - though if this game is flipped it doesn't impact the Bills odds)

If you flip that Steelers/Broncos game it knocks the Bills out. The 9-7 Bills would be at 13-3 Denver the way I have it worked out now. I don't think it's gonna happen but it's not impossible.
Yep this is just the 9-7 scenario.

Although the bottom two don't matter as much.

Bills 3-1 (loss vs NFC team)

Steelers 2-2 (Bengals HAS to be a loss, and then one other)

Jets - lose to Buffalo Week 17 and 1 other loss (doesn't matter which, still play NE)

Pittsburgh is the biggest hurdle and are playing really well.

Maybe Manziel Week 17 in Cleveland will do Buffalo a favor in a Bills have to beat the Jets and hope Cleveland wins to get in.

 
My understanding is that the Bengals/Steelers game is crucial for the Bills for tiebreaker purposes, but I am not sure it's a lock. Between the Bills/Steelers, obviously #1 doesn't apply. #2, if the Bengals win and the Bills beat the Jets, the Bills will be 7-5 in the AFC and the Steelers can be 7-5 at best. If the Bengals win, each team is 1-4 against common opponents. But then strength of victory? Can't this have a big swing either way depending on what happens in the rest of the NFL this season? Ie the Bengals might beat the Steelers but the Steelers could still hold a tiebreaker over the Bills, no?

  1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
  4. Strength of victory.
  5. Strength of schedule.
  6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
  7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
  8. Best net points in conference games.
  9. Best net points in all games.
  10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  11. Coin toss.
 
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No clue where you guys getting this stuff. Every simulation I can find has us out if Pittsburgh's only loss is @Cincy.
Just screwed around with 1 and managed to get the Bills in with a 3-1 finish. Longshot but possible.

KC wins out

Bills 3-1 with w over Jets

Jets 2-2 with losses against Patriots and Bills

Steelers 2-2 with losses against Bengals and Broncos

Texans 2-2

Colts 3-1 (including win over Texans - though if this game is flipped it doesn't impact the Bills odds)

If you flip that Steelers/Broncos game it knocks the Bills out. The 9-7 Bills would be at 13-3 Denver the way I have it worked out now. I don't think it's gonna happen but it's not impossible.
Yep this is just the 9-7 scenario.

Although the bottom two don't matter as much.

Bills 3-1 (loss vs NFC team)

Steelers 2-2 (Bengals HAS to be a loss, and then one other)

Jets - lose to Buffalo Week 17 and 1 other loss (doesn't matter which, still play NE)

Pittsburgh is the biggest hurdle and are playing really well.

Maybe Manziel Week 17 in Cleveland will do Buffalo a favor in a Bills have to beat the Jets and hope Cleveland wins to get in.
I don't see where you guys are coming up with all of these scenarios. Considering the inevitable loss that will come at the hands of Fitzpatrick in week 17 to knock the Bills out of the playoffs, I can't see a way for them to get in no matter what they or any other teams do over the next 3 weeks.

 
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Grigs Allmoon said:
I don't see where you guys are coming up with all of these scenarios. Considering the inevitable loss that will come at the hands of Fitzpatrick in week 17 to knock the Bills out of the playoffs, I can't see a way for them to get in no matter what they or any other teams do over the next 3 weeks.
Outside of a bunch of wild upsets, it's virtually impossible for the Bills to get in without beating the Jets in week 17.

Beating the Jets in week 17 gives the Bills the H2H tiebreaker over the Jets. If the Bengals beat the Steelers, the Bills/Steelers will have the same conference record (both 7-5, assuming the Steelers win out otherwise) and the same record against common opponents (1-4). The next tiebreaker appears to be strength of victory, and there is a decent chance the Bills top the Steelers in that category, apparently...at least according to the playoff scenario predictor I was looking at.

I think the most important games not involving the Bills over the next few weeks are:

Pitt at Cincinnati - week 14 - pretty much a must-win for the Bengals. If Pittsburgh wins, the common opponents tiebreaker shifts and Pittsburgh has the tiebreaker over the Bills. Bills would need to beat the Steelers outright in this scenario.

Denver at Pitt - week 15 - the only other decent opponent the Steelers play.

Patriots at Jets - week 16 - this is the most likely game for the Jets to lose. Jets don't necessarily need to lose this specific game but it's the most likely game for them to drop.

The Bills have tiebreakers over the Colts and Texans on H2H. The Texans still have the Patriots on the schedule, and the Colts/Texans will cannibalize each other when they play in week 15. The Chiefs are in their own world and I think we have to assume they go at least 3-1 if not 4-0 and lock up a playoff spot.

Of course, this is all moot if the Bills can't clean up the NFC East and then the Jets. Realistically, the Bills chances look like they could be nearly nil if they lose at Philly this week and Pittsburgh beats the Bengals. But if the Bills win and the Bengals win, they really are right back in the thick of it.

I have not vetted any of the above on anything, but this is how the scenarios look to me at the moment.

 
Patriots at Jets - week 16 - this is the most likely game for the Jets to lose. Jets don't necessarily need to lose this specific game but it's the most likely game for them to drop.
This one doesn't really matter, right? Like you said, the Bills simply have to beat the Jets to have any chance at the playoffs. And if we beat the Jets, we tie them up with the H2H tiebreaker in hand.

On a side note, I'm still enjoying the afterglow of yesterday's win, but those losses to the Chiefs and especially Jacksonville are starting to gnaw on me. The Jax loss was a weird, one-off event because we were essentially playing our second-string offense. But still, this conversation would be a lot different if we had that game. I just don't think this team is capable of stringing together four straight wins, even against the terrible NFC East and a so-so Jets team.

 
Patriots at Jets - week 16 - this is the most likely game for the Jets to lose. Jets don't necessarily need to lose this specific game but it's the most likely game for them to drop.
This one doesn't really matter, right? Like you said, the Bills simply have to beat the Jets to have any chance at the playoffs. And if we beat the Jets, we tie them up with the H2H tiebreaker in hand.

On a side note, I'm still enjoying the afterglow of yesterday's win, but those losses to the Chiefs and especially Jacksonville are starting to gnaw on me. The Jax loss was a weird, one-off event because we were essentially playing our second-string offense. But still, this conversation would be a lot different if we had that game. I just don't think this team is capable of stringing together four straight wins, even against the terrible NFC East and a so-so Jets team.
I agree. Winning 5 straight (would include this last win) just doesn't seem likely. And those two losses are killers.

And while the Bills should have just played better and won, it's so frustrating that the same officiating crew was responsible for horrific calls against the Bills in both games that had significant impacts.

 
Grigs Allmoon said:
I don't see where you guys are coming up with all of these scenarios. Considering the inevitable loss that will come at the hands of Fitzpatrick in week 17 to knock the Bills out of the playoffs, I can't see a way for them to get in no matter what they or any other teams do over the next 3 weeks.
Outside of a bunch of wild upsets, it's virtually impossible for the Bills to get in without beating the Jets in week 17.

Beating the Jets in week 17 gives the Bills the H2H tiebreaker over the Jets. If the Bengals beat the Steelers, the Bills/Steelers will have the same conference record (both 7-5, assuming the Steelers win out otherwise) and the same record against common opponents (1-4). The next tiebreaker appears to be strength of victory, and there is a decent chance the Bills top the Steelers in that category, apparently...at least according to the playoff scenario predictor I was looking at.

I think the most important games not involving the Bills over the next few weeks are:

Pitt at Cincinnati - week 14 - pretty much a must-win for the Bengals. If Pittsburgh wins, the common opponents tiebreaker shifts and Pittsburgh has the tiebreaker over the Bills. Bills would need to beat the Steelers outright in this scenario.

Denver at Pitt - week 15 - the only other decent opponent the Steelers play.

Patriots at Jets - week 16 - this is the most likely game for the Jets to lose. Jets don't necessarily need to lose this specific game but it's the most likely game for them to drop.

The Bills have tiebreakers over the Colts and Texans on H2H. The Texans still have the Patriots on the schedule, and the Colts/Texans will cannibalize each other when they play in week 15. The Chiefs are in their own world and I think we have to assume they go at least 3-1 if not 4-0 and lock up a playoff spot.

Of course, this is all moot if the Bills can't clean up the NFC East and then the Jets. Realistically, the Bills chances look like they could be nearly nil if they lose at Philly this week and Pittsburgh beats the Bengals. But if the Bills win and the Bengals win, they really are right back in the thick of it.

I have not vetted any of the above on anything, but this is how the scenarios look to me at the moment.
I was joking... Losing to the Jets, while being in a win-and-in scenario is typical Bills. It's destined to happen, so weeks 14-16 will have no bearing on the outcome.

 
Imagine how sad it would be if the Bills win out and don't make the playoffs. 10-6 and a 5-game winning streak for nothing. If Pittsburgh beats Cincinnati this week...it could happen.

I don't think the Bills will run the table though.

 
Better yet, how are the Bills going to stop the screen game in Philly and the RB's in the flat like Sproles and Barner. We haven't been able to stop RB's receptions all year.

 
If I'm Greg Roman, the first play of the game is a playaction deep to Watkins. Everyone in the world is going to expect a heavy dose of Shady early and often.

I actually think that Sammy could have a big day. The Eagles LBers are hurting right now, so if Philadelphia wants to stop Shady, they're going to have to use a safety in run support a lot. That should open things up for some big plays go Sammy.

 
If I'm Greg Roman, the first play of the game is a playaction deep to Watkins. Everyone in the world is going to expect a heavy dose of Shady early and often.

I actually think that Sammy could have a big day. The Eagles LBers are hurting right now, so if Philadelphia wants to stop Shady, they're going to have to use a safety in run support a lot. That should open things up for some big plays go Sammy.
I'm all for him being involved every week. He's been one of the most underused players in the league. It's awful.

 
Aaron Williams back at practice today. That's awesome news. If he can get back and the Bills still have a shot at the playoffs, that would be huge.

 
Aaron Williams back at practice today. That's awesome news. If he can get back and the Bills still have a shot at the playoffs, that would be huge.
One of my favorite players. When he keeps his emotions in check, he's the vocal leader of that secondary and the kind of voice the entire defense needs.

Say what you will about Mario, he's a great guy, good player, well liked, but you never see him leading on the field. It's not his skill set. They need someone to do that. A tough MLB would be preferred, but Aaron works as well.

 
Aaron Williams back at practice today. That's awesome news. If he can get back and the Bills still have a shot at the playoffs, that would be huge.
One of my favorite players. When he keeps his emotions in check, he's the vocal leader of that secondary and the kind of voice the entire defense needs.

Say what you will about Mario, he's a great guy, good player, well liked, but you never see him leading on the field. It's not his skill set. They need someone to do that. A tough MLB would be preferred, but Aaron works as well.
Unfortunately the follow-up on the reports that he was practicing are kind of scary. Sounds like he may never be healed up. He's giving it a try, but it's a very real possibility that he may just decide to retire :(

 

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