Grigs Allmoon said:
I don't see where you guys are coming up with all of these scenarios. Considering the inevitable loss that will come at the hands of Fitzpatrick in week 17 to knock the Bills out of the playoffs, I can't see a way for them to get in no matter what they or any other teams do over the next 3 weeks.
Outside of a bunch of wild upsets, it's virtually impossible for the Bills to get in without beating the Jets in week 17.
Beating the Jets in week 17 gives the Bills the H2H tiebreaker over the Jets. If the Bengals beat the Steelers, the Bills/Steelers will have the same conference record (both 7-5, assuming the Steelers win out otherwise) and the same record against common opponents (1-4). The next tiebreaker appears to be strength of victory, and there is a decent chance the Bills top the Steelers in that category, apparently...at least according to the playoff scenario predictor I was looking at.
I think the most important games not involving the Bills over the next few weeks are:
Pitt at Cincinnati - week 14 - pretty much a must-win for the Bengals. If Pittsburgh wins, the common opponents tiebreaker shifts and Pittsburgh has the tiebreaker over the Bills. Bills would need to beat the Steelers outright in this scenario.
Denver at Pitt - week 15 - the only other decent opponent the Steelers play.
Patriots at Jets - week 16 - this is the most likely game for the Jets to lose. Jets don't necessarily need to lose this specific game but it's the most likely game for them to drop.
The Bills have tiebreakers over the Colts and Texans on H2H. The Texans still have the Patriots on the schedule, and the Colts/Texans will cannibalize each other when they play in week 15. The Chiefs are in their own world and I think we have to assume they go at least 3-1 if not 4-0 and lock up a playoff spot.
Of course, this is all moot if the Bills can't clean up the NFC East and then the Jets. Realistically, the Bills chances look like they could be nearly nil if they lose at Philly this week and Pittsburgh beats the Bengals. But if the Bills win and the Bengals win, they really are right back in the thick of it.
I have not vetted any of the above on anything, but this is how the scenarios look to me at the moment.