2022-23 NBA Thread: “you’ll never let me down like the Heat did”, Miami fan says to giant pile of cocaine (2 Viewers)

[Moe.]

Thunder brush aside a KD-less Nets with relative ease in Brooklyn tonight. I almost posted the Thunder getting 5 points tonight was an absolute gift but I every time I do that I jinx myself.

If anything the Thunder are going to be buyers at the deadline. The play-in would be great experience for them.

@jvdesigns2002 willing to admit you had it wrong on them this year? No chance they pull any sort of shenanigans the rest of the way barring a catastrophic SGA injury.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Thunder brush aside a KD-less Nets with relative ease in Brooklyn tonight. I almost posted the Thunder getting 5 points tonight was an absolute gift but I every time I do that I jinx myself.

If anything the Thunder are going to be buyers at the deadline. The play-in would be great experience for them.

@jvdesigns2002 willing to admit you had it wrong on them this year? No chance they pull any sort of shenanigans the rest of the way barring a catastrophic SGA injury.

Once Chet went down, I thought that they would absolutely be tanking in order to get better draft position. To this point—that was an incorrect assumption—but I also think it was an assumption that most real NBA folk would have made. I think most would have also thought the Jazz would be tanking. I’m happy to admit that I was wrong if it means I get to see Shai play in more games. I don’t want to see a talent like that being wasted in a tanking purgatory.

 

[Anarchy99]

A ho him 51 points on 23 attempts from Tatum against the Hornets this afternoon.

 

[Jayrod]

A ho him 51 points on 23 attempts from Tatum against the Hornets this afternoon.

Celtics 7th straight win (3rd without Jaylen Brown). They are now 4.5 games up on the Nets who are still without Durant for a couple of weeks. 1 seed is theirs for the taking.

They really just need to focus on keeping their top 8 healthy for the playoffs.

 

[the moops]

I'd give it to Luka this year. Amazing how he single handedly keeps that team relevant.

Jokic has even more ridiculous on/off numbers compared to Luka. DEN has a slightly better supporting cast, but without Jokic they are a bottom 5 team in the league easily

 

[Kev4029]

We are now just past the halfway point of the NBA season with teams at 43 +/- games played. I did this last on December 2nd when teams were at 22 +/- games played. There have been some injuries (Curry, Booker, Durant, and Davis) who were all on my list last go around, so plenty of movement.

Tier 1

1. Nikola Jokic (Quarter Season Rank - #2)
24.7 Pts / 10.9 Reb / 9.8 Ast / 1.4 Stl / 0.6 Blk
.620 FG / .370 3PT / .812 FT / .691 TS%
31.9 PER / .315 WS48 / 12.5 BPM / +14.3 RAPTOR
It's unfair how good he has been this year. I think I had him higher than the consensus at the quarter point, but since then he has averaged 26.6/10.7/12.1 on improved efficiency and the Nuggets have gone 16-5 with a borderline top 10 defense and the best offense in the league over that span. Nobody has meant more to his team this season than Jokic and they are the second-best team in the NBA this year.

2. Luka Doncic (Quarter Season Rank - #6)
33.8 Pts / 9.0 Reb / 8.8 Ast / 1.6 Stl / 0.6 Blk
.533 FG / .351 3PT / .730 FT / .608 TS%
30.6 PER / .238 WS48 / 10.3 BPM / +9.3 RAPTOR
Doncic has picked up his play and efficiency since the quarter point and the Mavs have started to play a little better (14-10 vs 10-11 in the first quarter season), especially as Bullock and Hardaway decided to look like NBA players again. If he could get his 3pt% up just a couple percentage points where it didn’t feel like he was settling for a bad shot, I think he could make himself into one of the better players ever.

Tier 2

3. Joel Embiid (Quarter Season Unranked)
33.4 Pts / 9.8 Reb / 4.3 Ast / 1.1 Stl / 1.7 Blk
.536 FG / .350 3PT / .855 FT / .643 TS%
30.8 PER / .245 WS48 / 8.6 BPM / +7.3 RAPTOR
His rebounds are down but his scoring and efficiency are up over the last two seasons. The story is pretty similar to last year’s though. Embiid looks the part of an MVP, has the statistical profile of an MVP, but is missing too many games for a team that is underperforming just a little bit. I have him in his own tier because I think he’s been much closer to Doncic and Jokic in terms of impact on his team, but he’s missing too many games (11) to be in that tier. I would be very surprised if Tatum or Giannis win the MVP but I still think there is a reasonable outside chance for Embiid.

Tier 3

4. Giannis Antetokounmpo (Quarter Season Rank - #4)
31.0 Pts / 11.9 Reb / 5.3 Ast / 0.8 Stl / 0.9 Blk
.524 FG / .245 3PT / .653 FT / .584 TS%
27.1 PER / .179 WS48 / 7.1 BPM / +4.3 RAPTOR
Giannis is way down this year offensively – the usage (and scoring) are up, but efficiency is barely above league average and rebounding and assists are down as well. With Middleton and Ingles working their way back now, and Connaughton getting healthy (he’s made some bit statistical jumps from November to December to January), hopefully the team around Giannis can open things up for him offensively, while him, Holiday, and Lopez can continue driving one of the best defenses in the league. While Tatum has mostly looked better this year, I’m giving Giannis the benefit of the doubt here.

5. Jason Tatum (Quarter Season Rank - #3)
30.6 Pts / 8.2 Reb / 4.3 Ast / 1.0 Stl / 0.8 Blk
.467 FG / .345 3PT / ..862 FT / .606 TS%
24.6 PER / .191 WS48 / 5.4 BPM / +4.4 RAPTOR
I think I’ve come to the conclusion that I’m a bit of a Tatum hater, at least against the common perception of what Tatum is. He’s very good and deserves to be very much in the All-NBA first team discussion, but I think his career is going to playout a little more similar to Paul George than all-time great. That said, he’s been the best two way forward in the NBA this year (at least with Durant out now) and is the best player on the best team in the NBA.

Honorable Mention

• Kevin Durant (Quarter Season - Honorable Mention) Durant probably still deserves to be top 6 as it stands today, but after another 10+ games out, he'll certainly be out of the race.
• Steph Curry (Quarter Season Rank - #1) Statistically, he’s only taken a small dip, but since the quarter point he has missed 12 games (where the Warriors went 6-6) and the Warriors are 21-22 overall. If he continues this pace and the Warriors can reverse course a little, he may get back into the fringes of the MVP conversation.
• Lebron James (Quarter Season Unranked) Objectively, he probably doesn’t belong on this list as the Lakers blow, but give him a healthy AD and a couple players that can hit a jump shot and defend at a decent level and I still think he would be close to a top 5 player in the NBA. Like Curry, if somehow the Lakers can show some life, he may get into the fringes of the race.
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Quarter Season Unranked) He’s been sensational this year and from a purely statistical view, he could slot into the real conversation but the Thunder are still too ****ty. If I could put a bet on anybody for next year’s MVP at fair odds, I would pick him.
• Domantas Sabonis (Quarter Season Unranked) Sabonis has been fantastic and the ****ing Sacramento Kings are #4 in the west and he is the biggest reason. I don’t think he is a top 10-12 player in the NBA but he deserves a lot of credit.
• Ja Morant (Quarter Season - Honorable Mention) If the MVP vote came down to a 90 second clip of highlights for the season, he would be right up there with Jokic and Doncic, but I have a hard time fully buying into a player who’s team is successful because of a stellar defense while he himself is a bad defender, and leads an average offense as the best offensive player.

Off the List
Devin Booker (#5), Anthony Davis (Honorable Mention)

 

[Kev4029]

I'd give it to Luka this year. Amazing how he single handedly keeps that team relevant.

Jokic has even more ridiculous on/off numbers compared to Luka. DEN has a slightly better supporting cast, but without Jokic they are a bottom 5 team in the league easily

@Major The Nuggets bench has moved from G-League level to bottom tier NBA level so Jokic's on-off numbers are a little less comical than they were like 4 weeks ago when I think his on/off was like +27.0 but here are the numbers according to NBA Wowy:

Jokic on the floor 125.9 Ortg and 112.3 Drtg (+13.6), Jokic off the floor 103.9 Ortg and 113.3 Drtg (-9.4) - total on/off of +23.0.

Doncic on the floor 118.7 Ortg and 116.2 Drtg (+2.5), Doncic off the floor 106.2 Ortg and 112.6 Drtg (-6.0) - total on/off of +8.5

 

[Anarchy99]

5. Jason Tatum (Quarter Season Rank - #3)
30.6 Pts / 8.2 Reb / 4.3 Ast / 1.0 Stl / 0.8 Blk
.467 FG / .345 3PT / ..862 FT / .606 TS%
24.6 PER / .191 WS48 / 5.4 BPM / +4.4 RAPTOR
I think I’ve come to the conclusion that I’m a bit of a Tatum hater, at least against the common perception of what Tatum is. He’s very good and deserves to be very much in the All-NBA first team discussion, but I think his career is going to playout a little more similar to Paul George than all-time great. That said, he’s been the best two way forward in the NBA this year (at least with Durant out now) and is the best player on the best team in the NBA.

Tatum is in his 7th season, and his per game scoring, rebounds, and assists have gone up every season so far. The only thing he would be lower on this year would be assists, where he is off 0.1 assists/gm vs. last season so far. I don't know how often players see an increase in all of their primary stat categories year over year, but I am guessing it can't be all that often. The other thing is in terms of prior statistical models and future projections go, we have reached a point where top tier players are putting up video game numbers, so those models may need to be tweaked to better account for the high scoring totals.

 

[Major]

I'd give it to Luka this year. Amazing how he single handedly keeps that team relevant.

Jokic has even more ridiculous on/off numbers compared to Luka. DEN has a slightly better supporting cast, but without Jokic they are a bottom 5 team in the league easily

@Major The Nuggets bench has moved from G-League level to bottom tier NBA level so Jokic's on-off numbers are a little less comical than they were like 4 weeks ago when I think his on/off was like +27.0 but here are the numbers according to NBA Wowy:

Jokic on the floor 125.9 Ortg and 112.3 Drtg (+13.6), Jokic off the floor 103.9 Ortg and 113.3 Drtg (-9.4) - total on/off of +23.0.

Doncic on the floor 118.7 Ortg and 116.2 Drtg (+2.5), Doncic off the floor 106.2 Ortg and 112.6 Drtg (-6.0) - total on/off of +8.5

Jokic is great statistically and an amazing regular season performer. While I know the playoffs arent considered, he really needs to start winning rings before I crown him for a 3rd MVP award. I almost feel like we're giving Nash a third MVP here. I'm one of those who doesnt value regular season records as much as I used to with all the load management strategies. I don't know if you call it fatigue but there are so many great players in the league to recognize, I just feel it's Luka's turn.

 

[Anarchy99]

At this point there are any number of advanced metrics and statistics that people have come up with. The one that I find odd is Real Plus Minus, which currently has the following as the Top 12 in the league:

Tatum - 9.5
Doncic - 8.5
Jokic - 8.16
Embiid - 7.58
James - 7.31
Mitchell - 6.99
Lillard - 5.82
Harden - 5.68
Haliburton - 5.65
Davis - 5.65
Curry - 5.64
Randle - 5.63

Tatum is ranked so high because he has the 7th highest defensive contribution and 8th highest offensive contribution in the league so far.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Jazz win in Minnesota over the lowly Wolves. Walker Kessler (small piece of the Gobert deal) went for 20-21-4-2

 

[Capella]

Jazz win in Minnesota over the lowly Wolves. Walker Kessler (small piece of the Gobert deal) went for 20-21-4-2

Yikes.

 

[zoobird]

Jazz win in Minnesota over the lowly Wolves. Walker Kessler (small piece of the Gobert deal) went for 20-21-4-2

Just looked up Kessler's stats and you could argue that Gobert for Kessler straight up would have favored Utah. On a per minute basis, Kessler basically is Gobert...but 10 years younger (and I assume a whole lot cheaper). What an unbelievably lopsided trade.

 

[Kev4029]

I'd give it to Luka this year. Amazing how he single handedly keeps that team relevant.

Jokic has even more ridiculous on/off numbers compared to Luka. DEN has a slightly better supporting cast, but without Jokic they are a bottom 5 team in the league easily

@Major The Nuggets bench has moved from G-League level to bottom tier NBA level so Jokic's on-off numbers are a little less comical than they were like 4 weeks ago when I think his on/off was like +27.0 but here are the numbers according to NBA Wowy:

Jokic on the floor 125.9 Ortg and 112.3 Drtg (+13.6), Jokic off the floor 103.9 Ortg and 113.3 Drtg (-9.4) - total on/off of +23.0.

Doncic on the floor 118.7 Ortg and 116.2 Drtg (+2.5), Doncic off the floor 106.2 Ortg and 112.6 Drtg (-6.0) - total on/off of +8.5

Jokic is great statistically and an amazing regular season performer. While I know the playoffs arent considered, he really needs to start winning rings before I crown him for a 3rd MVP award. I almost feel like we're giving Nash a third MVP here. I'm one of those who doesnt value regular season records as much as I used to with all the load management strategies. I don't know if you call it fatigue but there are so many great players in the league to recognize, I just feel it's Luka's turn.

Players in the last 40 years that won a title before winning an MVP:

• Kobe
• Shaq (won the MVP in the same season he won his first title)
• Olajuwon (won the MVP in the same season he won his first title)

Jordan had two MVPs before a title (separated by two years and two Magic MVPs).
Lebron had three MVPs (should have had four - Derrick Rose) before winning his first title.
Karl Malone had two MVPs and never won a title.
Nash had two MVPs and never won a title.

Winning titles and getting MVPs are not necessarily related, other than the fact that good players tend to win titles.

Giving MVPs as a participation ribbon is what lead to things like Nash getting two MVPs, Derrick Rose getting an MVP, Kobe only getting one MVP (the argument sometimes was he's young and great so he'll get his eventually).

 

[gruecd]

Jazz win in Minnesota over the lowly Wolves. Walker Kessler (small piece of the Gobert deal) went for 20-21-4-2

Just looked up Kessler's stats and you could argue that Gobert for Kessler straight up would have favored Utah. On a per minute basis, Kessler basically is Gobert...but 10 years younger (and I assume a whole lot cheaper). What an unbelievably lopsided trade.

Read a good article in The Athletic today about Kessler.

 

[the moops]

Players in the last 40 years that won a title before winning an MVP:

• Kobe
• Shaq (won the MVP in the same season he won his first title)
• Olajuwon (won the MVP in the same season he won his first title)

Larry Bird won a title in 1981, didn't win his first MVP until 1984

Oh I see now - 40 years was the cutoff. Carry on now

 

[the moops]

But now that I am on this kick you are missing a couple

Magic won a title in 1985. Won his first MVP in 1987

Duncan won a title in 1999. Didn't win his first MVP until 2002.

 

[Jayrod]

Jazz win in Minnesota over the lowly Wolves. Walker Kessler (small piece of the Gobert deal) went for 20-21-4-2

Just looked up Kessler's stats and you could argue that Gobert for Kessler straight up would have favored Utah. On a per minute basis, Kessler basically is Gobert...but 10 years younger (and I assume a whole lot cheaper). What an unbelievably lopsided trade.

Hadn't really looked at this kid yet this year.

Some highlights:

• He is leading the league in block% at 8.3%
• He is #4 in blocks/game at 2.0 despite only playing 19.8 mpg
• His per 36 block rate is 3.6
• His per 36 pts/rebounds is 13.6/13.0
• He has an eFG% of .717

That's some promising numbers. Only has 10 starts this year, playing behind Olynyk.

 

[Anarchy99]

Just curious if people feel there are more legit MVP candidates these days than in the 80's and 90's.

Here's the list of Top NBA MVP Award Shares

LeBron James (8.813)
Michael Jordan (8.115)
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (6.105)
Larry Bird (5.612)
Magic Johnson (5.104)
Bill Russell (4.748)
Shaquille O'Neal (4.380)
Karl Malone (4.296)
Tim Duncan (4.278)
Kobe Bryant (4.202)

 

[Kev4029]

Just curious if people feel there are more legit MVP candidates these days than in the 80's and 90's.

Here's the list of Top NBA MVP Award Shares

LeBron James (8.813)
Michael Jordan (8.115)
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (6.105)
Larry Bird (5.612)
Magic Johnson (5.104)
Bill Russell (4.748)
Shaquille O'Neal (4.380)
Karl Malone (4.296)
Tim Duncan (4.278)
Kobe Bryant (4.202)

Part of it is NBA expansion - the more teams, the more players that have a case. When Russell was drafted there were 8 teams, when Kareem was drafted there was 14 teams, when Bird and Magic were drafted there was 22. Jordan was drafted with 23 teams. The influx of international players has made a huge difference too - Prior to Olajuwon, I don't there there was an international player that won MVP. Including Olajuwon, I think 10 MVPs have been won by international players in the last 29 seasons (and 9 in the last 21 seasons).

 

[Kev4029]

But now that I am on this kick you are missing a couple

Magic won a title in 1985. Won his first MVP in 1987

Duncan won a title in 1999. Didn't win his first MVP until 2002.

I skimmed the list quick, definitely missed those two. Point stands that previous title success doesn't have a huge impact on winning MVPs, other than the fact that those are the elite of the elite talent and those kind of players have a much better chance of winning the title.

 

[Anarchy99]

I poked around the annual MVP balloting, and the 21-22 season was the first one with 3 guys getting at least a 50% vote share (Jokic, Embiid, and Giannis) since the 08-09 season (LeBron, Kobe, Wade). The was the longest such stretch without three guys getting significant votes since they adopted the current balloting system.

Since the start of the multi-player ballot process in 80-81 (ie, people voted for more than just one player on a ballot), these were the other seasons with 3 players getting 50% vote shares: 87-88, 89-90. 92-93, 94-95, 98-99, 01-02, and 07-08.

I don't know what to take away from that, other than the last few years, voters either had a clear #1 MVP option or it came down to 2 main guys. In the 80's and 90's, it seems like there were more years where three guys had a legit chance to win.

 

[the moops]

But now that I am on this kick you are missing a couple

Magic won a title in 1985. Won his first MVP in 1987

Duncan won a title in 1999. Didn't win his first MVP until 2002.

I skimmed the list quick, definitely missed those two. Point stands that previous title success doesn't have a huge impact on winning MVPs, other than the fact that those are the elite of the elite talent and those kind of players have a much better chance of winning the title.

Oh I agree. There have been plenty of players who have won an MVP and never won a title. Fun little exercise. Players who are considered top tier, who have won titles, but not MVP vs MVP's who havent won a title.

WON TITLE - NO MVP
Kawhi, Wade, Pierce, Kyrie, Pippen

WON MVP - NO TITLE
Iverson, Barkley, Malone, Nash, Jokic

 

[Major]

I'd give it to Luka this year. Amazing how he single handedly keeps that team relevant.

Jokic has even more ridiculous on/off numbers compared to Luka. DEN has a slightly better supporting cast, but without Jokic they are a bottom 5 team in the league easily

@Major The Nuggets bench has moved from G-League level to bottom tier NBA level so Jokic's on-off numbers are a little less comical than they were like 4 weeks ago when I think his on/off was like +27.0 but here are the numbers according to NBA Wowy:

Jokic on the floor 125.9 Ortg and 112.3 Drtg (+13.6), Jokic off the floor 103.9 Ortg and 113.3 Drtg (-9.4) - total on/off of +23.0.

Doncic on the floor 118.7 Ortg and 116.2 Drtg (+2.5), Doncic off the floor 106.2 Ortg and 112.6 Drtg (-6.0) - total on/off of +8.5

Jokic is great statistically and an amazing regular season performer. While I know the playoffs arent considered, he really needs to start winning rings before I crown him for a 3rd MVP award. I almost feel like we're giving Nash a third MVP here. I'm one of those who doesnt value regular season records as much as I used to with all the load management strategies. I don't know if you call it fatigue but there are so many great players in the league to recognize, I just feel it's Luka's turn.

Players in the last 40 years that won a title before winning an MVP:

• Kobe
• Shaq (won the MVP in the same season he won his first title)
• Olajuwon (won the MVP in the same season he won his first title)

Jordan had two MVPs before a title (separated by two years and two Magic MVPs).
Lebron had three MVPs (should have had four - Derrick Rose) before winning his first title.
Karl Malone had two MVPs and never won a title.
Nash had two MVPs and never won a title.

Winning titles and getting MVPs are not necessarily related, other than the fact that good players tend to win titles.

Giving MVPs as a participation ribbon is what lead to things like Nash getting two MVPs, Derrick Rose getting an MVP, Kobe only getting one MVP (the argument sometimes was he's young and great so he'll get his eventually).

Fair points. My argument was more awarding a guy 3 MVPs in a row before winning a title. Obviously, hasn't been done before and probably shouldnt.

 

[MAC_32]

Jazz win in Minnesota over the lowly Wolves. Walker Kessler (small piece of the Gobert deal) went for 20-21-4-2

I was very impressed with him in both Cavs games, especially the 2nd one in Utah. A couple of rookie moments, but he's developing very quickly.

 

[Jayrod]

Fair points. My argument was more awarding a guy 3 MVPs in a row before winning a title. Obviously, hasn't been done before and probably shouldnt.

I don't really get that argument. It is a regular season award. They have Finals MVP that goes to the best player on the championship team. If Doncic doesn't do enough and Jokic keeps playing like he has been, he absolutely should win his 3rd MVP. He is a historically great player who simply hasn't had a good enough (or healthy enough) team around him.

 

[Jayrod]

Tatum is in his 7th season, and his per game scoring, rebounds, and assists have gone up every season so far. The only thing he would be lower on this year would be assists, where he is off 0.1 assists/gm vs. last season so far. I don't know how often players see an increase in all of their primary stat categories year over year, but I am guessing it can't be all that often. The other thing is in terms of prior statistical models and future projections go, we have reached a point where top tier players are putting up video game numbers, so those models may need to be tweaked to better account for the high scoring totals.

Teams are putting up the greatest offensive numbers ever over the past 3 seasons. If the season ended today, 3 of the top 4 team offensive ratings in NBA history would be from this season (Celtics, Nuggets & Kings). All of the top 14 (greater than 116.0 rating) are from the last 4 seasons.

 

[Anarchy99]

Since we are on a run of basketball history . . . I am still hearing some people questioning how good Tatum is and whether he is an elite / difference making player that could win a title. I don't know any more than anyone else does, but by 23 he went to the Finals and had 2 other trips to conference finals. MJ had done none of that by that age. LeBron had 1 Finals appearance. Kobe won 2 titles and went to another conference finals. Duncan won a title. Curry didn't even make the playoffs until he was 24. To me, it looks like Tatum has done a lot so far in his career. Not sure we can conclude he doesn't have what it takes to go the distance. But maybe that's just Boston media wondering if the Celts are regular season front runners that turn ordinary in the playoffs.

 

[Kev4029]

Since we are on a run of basketball history . . . I am still hearing some people questioning how good Tatum is and whether he is an elite / difference making player that could win a title. I don't know any more than anyone else does, but by 23 he went to the Finals and had 2 other trips to conference finals. MJ had done none of that by that age. LeBron had 1 Finals appearance. Kobe won 2 titles and went to another conference finals. Duncan won a title. Curry didn't even make the playoffs until he was 24. To me, it looks like Tatum has done a lot so far in his career. Not sure we can conclude he doesn't have what it takes to go the distance. But maybe that's just Boston media wondering if the Celts are regular season front runners that turn ordinary in the playoffs.

The Celtics are a great team with a very deep roster of good players and it's been that way for the last few seasons. I don't think he is anywhere near the talent of most of the recent best players on champions like Curry, Giannis, Kawhi, Lebron, etc. If the Celtics win the title, they'll be remembered as a bit more of a 2014 Spurs title than one of the teams with a super elite number 1 with complementary things around that guy.

 

[Jayrod]

Tatum is already better than Paul Pierce ever was.

As far as contemporaries, I think he is a small notch better than PG13, but below Kawhi in his overall game. He's a better scorer than both, but not as good defensively. He still has room to expand his passing/playmaking as well and I'd be surprised if he doesn't improve there eventually and maybe even improve his rebounding.

He has that Kobe/MJ mentality of working at his game and improving every year.

Long story short, he is already really freaking good and will likely get better. 1st team all-NBA (likely back to back) is no joke.

 

[Jayrod]

As far as contemporaries, I think he is a small notch better than PG13, but below Kawhi in his overall game. He's a better scorer than both, but not as good defensively. He still has room to expand his passing/playmaking as well and I'd be surprised if he doesn't improve there eventually and maybe even improve his rebounding.

Speaking of these two, what is going on with the Clippers? Lost last night to the Sixers with both of them playing.

They are "load managing" there way into the play-in games. The only problem with that is that you don't get any easy series. Beating the top 3 seeds in your conference before going the Finals is a serious uphill climb that they just don't have the horses for, IMO. They are also the oldest team in the league with an average age of 29.5 yrs.

 

[Anarchy99]

Tatum is already better than Paul Pierce ever was.

As far as contemporaries, I think he is a small notch better than PG13, but below Kawhi in his overall game. He's a better scorer than both, but not as good defensively. He still has room to expand his passing/playmaking as well and I'd be surprised if he doesn't improve there eventually and maybe even improve his rebounding.

He has that Kobe/MJ mentality of working at his game and improving every year.

Long story short, he is already really freaking good and will likely get better. 1st team all-NBA (likely back to back) is no joke.

Hard to compare a 24-year-old to a 31-year-old and essentially a 33-year-old. But that's part of what I am curious about. People are comparing him to much older players, and the question becomes should we be comparing Tatum to how those guys did at 24 or how they play now at 28? Jokic will be 28 in a few weeks. Giannis and Embiid are already 28. They all swim in the same pool, but those guys at 24 were averaging 19.9 (Jokic), 27.7 (Giannis), and 27.5 (Embiid) while Tatum is averaging 31.1.

Not sure there is a universal common denominator for measuring defense, but at the moment, ESPN has Tatum's Real Defensive RPM at 4.72 with George at 3.78 and Leonard at 3.33. In terms of defensive rating, George is at 110 with Tatum and Leonard at 111 for this year. Hard to look at career defensive rating, as Tatum has played most of his career with the league in a higher scoring stretch than the other guys. But the two Clippers career wise are at 103 and Tatum at 107 for career defensive ratings. For those that look at PER, Tatum has gone up in that category every year he's been in the league. He's at 25.1 this season so far (Kawhi at 21 and George at 19.6).

I'm not a Tatum fanboy suggesting Tatum is the second coming of INSERT CELTICS PLAYER HERE (Bird?). In fact, anyone that went to Duke is on my hated players list (can't stand Duke). Just trying to evaluate how his career has gone and what that might mean for the future (if there is any way to figure it out).

 

[Instinctive]

Salary agnostic, off the top of my head, Tatum might now be one of the top 4 guys I'd take if starting a franchise for an extended period. He's lower in my "for one yeaR" mental list (e.g., below Embiid for "win a title this year", but above him in the "starting a franchise" forever).

In some order, Luka, Jokic, Giannis, Tatum feel like a clear cut top group to me.

 

[the moops]

The Celtics are a great team with a very deep roster of good players and it's been that way for the last few seasons. I don't think he is anywhere near the talent of most of the recent best players on champions like Curry, Giannis, Kawhi, Lebron, etc. If the Celtics win the title, they'll be remembered as a bit more of a 2014 Spurs title than one of the teams with a super elite number 1 with complementary things around that guy.

This may be true, but Tatum is having a better year than Kawhi had in his most recent title with Toronto. And to repeat - he is just 24 years old.

 

[Kev4029]

Tatum is already better than Paul Pierce ever was.

As far as contemporaries, I think he is a small notch better than PG13, but below Kawhi in his overall game. He's a better scorer than both, but not as good defensively. He still has room to expand his passing/playmaking as well and I'd be surprised if he doesn't improve there eventually and maybe even improve his rebounding.

He has that Kobe/MJ mentality of working at his game and improving every year.

Long story short, he is already really freaking good and will likely get better. 1st team all-NBA (likely back to back) is no joke.

Hard to compare a 24-year-old to a 31-year-old and essentially a 33-year-old. But that's part of what I am curious about. People are comparing him to much older players, and the question becomes should we be comparing Tatum to how those guys did at 24 or how they play now at 28? Jokic will be 28 in a few weeks. Giannis and Embiid are already 28. They all swim in the same pool, but those guys at 24 were averaging 19.9 (Jokic), 27.7 (Giannis), and 27.5 (Embiid) while Tatum is averaging 31.1.

Not sure there is a universal common denominator for measuring defense, but at the moment, ESPN has Tatum's Real Defensive RPM at 4.72 with George at 3.78 and Leonard at 3.33. In terms of defensive rating, George is at 110 with Tatum and Leonard at 111 for this year. Hard to look at career defensive rating, as Tatum has played most of his career with the league in a higher scoring stretch than the other guys. But the two Clippers career wise are at 103 and Tatum at 107 for career defensive ratings. For those that look at PER, Tatum has gone up in that category every year he's been in the league. He's at 25.1 this season so far (Kawhi at 21 and George at 19.6).

I'm not a Tatum fanboy suggesting Tatum is the second coming of INSERT CELTICS PLAYER HERE (Bird?). In fact, anyone that went to Duke is on my hated players list (can't stand Duke). Just trying to evaluate how his career has gone and what that might mean for the future (if there is any way to figure it out).

He's a far better player than PG and Kawhi in 2023, and I don't think many would argue otherwise. In comparing him to Kawhi or PG, I think that is more those guys in their prime. It's also getting more and more difficult to compare counting stats (i.e. your PPG comparison) of current NBA to even 5 seasons ago. Pace has started to stagnate right around that 100 possessions per game +/- but Ortg has basically been on the rise for the last 25 years as threes have replaced long twos (3pt% has been relatively steady since NBA moved the line back in the late 90s) and some of the one-way defensive players got worked out of the league. Some of the advanced stats have also gotten a bit goofy as usage rates for top players have consistently risen across the league. Just to give you and idea, Tatum has a Usg% of 33.0 this year and he is #7 in the league. There are 16 players with over a 30.0 Usg%. In 2013, #7 would have been Wade at 29.5 and only 5 players had a Usg% of over 30.0. Combine the higher modern pace, with the higher efficiency, and higher usage and stats are getting difficult to compare to previous seasons.

Drtg/Ortg for a team is very useful to look at inside a given season, but should be taken with a huge grain of salt for individual players, especially once you start comparing current seasons to pre-bubble seasons.

 

[Jayrod]

One thing I was very surprised to discover was the FT rates of the current era are a far cry below the FT rates of the 80's and 90's. I assumed that was a factor in the increased scoring rates, but it is very clearly not.

Since the merger, FT/game peaked in 1987 at 30.5/game (this is per team, so per game double it). In the current season the rate is 23.8/game which is the highest in the last 12 years. Lowest point was 2018 at 21.7/game...so FT's are slightly up but nowhere near the historical highs in the mid-80's.

 

[Kev4029]

The Celtics are a great team with a very deep roster of good players and it's been that way for the last few seasons. I don't think he is anywhere near the talent of most of the recent best players on champions like Curry, Giannis, Kawhi, Lebron, etc. If the Celtics win the title, they'll be remembered as a bit more of a 2014 Spurs title than one of the teams with a super elite number 1 with complementary things around that guy.

This may be true, but Tatum is having a better year than Kawhi had in his most recent title with Toronto. And to repeat - he is just 24 years old.

Is he though? Leonard's regular season wasn't quite as effective, maybe, because he was on load management and only played 60 games. But he was still largely considered the best perimeter defender in the NBA, his scoring efficiency was pretty spectacular for a perimeter player (his TS% of .606 was .046 higher than league average - Tatum's this season is .035 higher than league average). Kawhi's PER (25.8 v 25.1), WS/48 (.224 v .198), BPM (7.2 v 5.8), and RAPTOR (6.6 v 5.8) were higher than Tatum's is this season. Their team situations were largely similar - I would argue that Toronto probably had a little more high end depth but Brown is much better than whoever Toronto's #2 was that season (Lowry?). That season was probably Kawhi's third best season as a pro, he was better in both 15-16 and 16-17 before he got hurt in 17-18 and took a little bit of a step back athletically.

Coming off that season, ESPN's best player ranking had Leonard #2 in the NBA and two seasons prior had him #3 (he was #8 or something coming off his missed season). You'd be hard pressed to find any sort of consensus that Tatum is a top 5 player in the NBA and definitely no consensus that he is top 2 in the NBA. Tatum, even if he is playing at a borderline MVP level, is certainly behind Giannis, Jokic, Doncic, and Curry, and nearly certainly behind Embiid and Durant, but safely in the next tier and top 10.

 

[Navin Johnson]

I'd give it to Luka this year. Amazing how he single handedly keeps that team relevant.

Jokic has even more ridiculous on/off numbers compared to Luka. DEN has a slightly better supporting cast, but without Jokic they are a bottom 5 team in the league easily

@Major The Nuggets bench has moved from G-League level to bottom tier NBA level so Jokic's on-off numbers are a little less comical than they were like 4 weeks ago when I think his on/off was like +27.0 but here are the numbers according to NBA Wowy:

Jokic on the floor 125.9 Ortg and 112.3 Drtg (+13.6), Jokic off the floor 103.9 Ortg and 113.3 Drtg (-9.4) - total on/off of +23.0.

Doncic on the floor 118.7 Ortg and 116.2 Drtg (+2.5), Doncic off the floor 106.2 Ortg and 112.6 Drtg (-6.0) - total on/off of +8.5

Jokic is great statistically and an amazing regular season performer. While I know the playoffs arent considered, he really needs to start winning rings before I crown him for a 3rd MVP award. I almost feel like we're giving Nash a third MVP here. I'm one of those who doesnt value regular season records as much as I used to with all the load management strategies. I don't know if you call it fatigue but there are so many great players in the league to recognize, I just feel it's Luka's turn.

Players in the last 40 years that won a title before winning an MVP:

• Kobe
• Shaq (won the MVP in the same season he won his first title)
• Olajuwon (won the MVP in the same season he won his first title)

Jordan had two MVPs before a title (separated by two years and two Magic MVPs).
Lebron had three MVPs (should have had four - Derrick Rose) before winning his first title.
Karl Malone had two MVPs and never won a title.
Nash had two MVPs and never won a title.

Winning titles and getting MVPs are not necessarily related, other than the fact that good players tend to win titles.

Giving MVPs as a participation ribbon is what lead to things like Nash getting two MVPs, Derrick Rose getting an MVP, Kobe only getting one MVP (the argument sometimes was he's young and great so he'll get his eventually).

Curry?

 

[Kev4029]

One thing I was very surprised to discover was the FT rates of the current era are a far cry below the FT rates of the 80's and 90's. I assumed that was a factor in the increased scoring rates, but it is very clearly not.

Since the merger, FT/game peaked in 1987 at 30.5/game (this is per team, so per game double it). In the current season the rate is 23.8/game which is the highest in the last 12 years. Lowest point was 2018 at 21.7/game...so FT's are slightly up but nowhere near the historical highs in the mid-80's.

Kind of flies in the face of all the dudes from the 80s and 90s saying everybody is soft now. But it makes sense, things are more spread out so there are fewer people in the paint to foul, and three point shots are way up and those shots rarely result in fouls.

In terms of just FT/FGA, the previous two seasons are tied for the lowest ever (.192, this season is at .211 which is the 14th lowest ever). Things peaked at the beginning of the NBA where the 50s were full of rates at .300 +/-, but not too far behind were the mid-to-late 80s with rates at .259 to .262.

 

[Anarchy99]

You'd be hard pressed to find any sort of consensus that Tatum is a top 5 player in the NBA and definitely no consensus that he is top 2 in the NBA. Tatum, even if he is playing at a borderline MVP level, is certainly behind Giannis, Jokic, Doncic, and Curry, and nearly certainly behind Embiid and Durant, but safely in the next tier and top 10.

Tatum was First Team All-NBA last season. Basketball Reference has him as their #4 ranked MVP candidate for this year to date. The Celtics made it to the Finals last year and have the best record so far this year (which generally gets consideration in discussing top players). His counting stats and efficiency stats continue to improve each year. Apparently, some people already view him as a Top 5 player. Last I checked, he was 1st in Real Plus Minus, 4th in Plus Minus, 4th in Win Shares, and 5th in VORP. Sure, he might be behind Curry, Embiid, Giannis, and KD in some categories, but Tatum suits up for more games . . . isn't availability a component of ability? Not sure what constitutes being one of the top players these days? Team wins? Counting stats? Rate stats? Efficiency stats? Post season results? Supporting cast?

I brought up that last part because the Celtics also have Jaylen Brown. In the games when Brown hasn't played, Boston is 5-0 with a +16.6 scoring differential with Tatum averaging 36.4 ppg. We can debate if Brown helps or hinders Tatum being an upper tier player or not. Brown certainly helps the C's win more games, but he averages a shade over 20 shots a game. The other marquee players in the league typically have a guy shooting 15 times a game. Tatum isn't hurt for shots each night, but a few extra here and there might help his counting stats.

All that being said, I still am not convinced that Tatum is a guy that Boston can rely on to close out games, get a big bucket in crunch time, and make a handful of good decisions down the stretch to walk out of the arena with a W instead of an L in a playoff game. We've seen guys like KD, Luka, Curry, etc. make those gotta have it shots when it really matters. Tatum came up huge in the Game 6 elimination game in MIL . . . but I don't remember other mega important games that Tatum was the go to hero. Brown has generally been the one that Boston has had to score in bunches in the 4th quarter.

 

[Major]

I don't really get that argument. It is a regular season award. They have Finals MVP that goes to the best player on the championship team. If Doncic doesn't do enough and Jokic keeps playing like he has been, he absolutely should win his 3rd MVP. He is a historically great player who simply hasn't had a good enough (or healthy enough) team around him.

Voter fatigue is a real thing. All the same things can be said about Luka (hasn't had a good enough team around him, etc). Luka leading the lead in scoring while almost averaging a triple double is catnip for voters. He's made what should be a terrible team competitive. However, if Denver keeps winning at this pace, looks like it's Jokic's to lose.

Think this would be my vote at this point:

1. Luka
2. Jokic
3. Giannis
4. Morant
5. Embid

 

[Kev4029]

You'd be hard pressed to find any sort of consensus that Tatum is a top 5 player in the NBA and definitely no consensus that he is top 2 in the NBA. Tatum, even if he is playing at a borderline MVP level, is certainly behind Giannis, Jokic, Doncic, and Curry, and nearly certainly behind Embiid and Durant, but safely in the next tier and top 10.

Tatum was First Team All-NBA last season. Basketball Reference has him as their #4 ranked MVP candidate for this year to date. The Celtics made it to the Finals last year and have the best record so far this year (which generally gets consideration in discussing top players). His counting stats and efficiency stats continue to improve each year. Apparently, some people already view him as a Top 5 player. Last I checked, he was 1st in Real Plus Minus, 4th in Plus Minus, 4th in Win Shares, and 5th in VORP. Sure, he might be behind Curry, Embiid, Giannis, and KD in some categories, but Tatum suits up for more games . . . isn't availability a component of ability? Not sure what constitutes being one of the top players these days? Team wins? Counting stats? Rate stats? Efficiency stats? Post season results? Supporting cast?

I brought up that last part because the Celtics also have Jaylen Brown. In the games when Brown hasn't played, Boston is 5-0 with a +16.6 scoring differential with Tatum averaging 36.4 ppg. We can debate if Brown helps or hinders Tatum being an upper tier player or not. Brown certainly helps the C's win more games, but he averages a shade over 20 shots a game. The other marquee players in the league typically have a guy shooting 15 times a game. Tatum isn't hurt for shots each night, but a few extra here and there might help his counting stats.

All that being said, I still am not convinced that Tatum is a guy that Boston can rely on to close out games, get a big bucket in crunch time, and make a handful of good decisions down the stretch to walk out of the arena with a W instead of an L in a playoff game. We've seen guys like KD, Luka, Curry, etc. make those gotta have it shots when it really matters. Tatum came up huge in the Game 6 elimination game in MIL . . . but I don't remember other mega important games that Tatum was the go to hero. Brown has generally been the one that Boston has had to score in bunches in the 4th quarter.

To push back on some of this stuff...

• I love the BBref MVP tracker, and I think it is genuinely helpful to see what their algorithm thinks but I think there is much less utility in saying Tatum is #4 because the algorithm thinks has a 5% chance, vs lowly# 9 Donovan Mitchell at 1%. I'd be curious to see how well the tracker predicts players with below some given probability (say, 5% or 8% or whatever). The tracker is roughly in line with betting odds - on Draftkings Jokic is +115, Doncic is +275, Tatum is +475, Antetokounmpo is +900, Embiid is +1100, then everybody else is +2000 or higher.
• On the advanced stats, Tatum is kind of all over the place. BPM has him 17th, RAPTOR has him 25th, EPM is 8th, as you said, RPM is 1st, VORP is 6th, WS/48 is 17th. His aggregated stats (WS, VORP, etc.) are a little higher because the Celtics are a couple games played up, his playing a relative **** ton of minutes, and he's only missed to games (as you said on the the best abilities is availability). I'm not sure there is another elite player that the stats disagree on as much.
• Calling out the games that Brown missed is a bit misleading, they have beat the Pistons, Charlotte three times, and KD-less Brooklyn.
• I would say the thing that hinders Tatum with regards to Brown, is that close to half the time I watch the Celtics, Brown looks like the better player. I think some of that may be because Brown is a higher variance player where Tatum is a bit more steady, but at his best, Brown definitely pops a bit more to me.

 

[Anarchy99]

To push back on some of this stuff...

• I love the BBref MVP tracker, and I think it is genuinely helpful to see what their algorithm thinks but I think there is much less utility in saying Tatum is #4 because the algorithm thinks has a 5% chance, vs lowly# 9 Donovan Mitchell at 1%. I'd be curious to see how well the tracker predicts players with below some given probability (say, 5% or 8% or whatever). The tracker is roughly in line with betting odds - on Draftkings Jokic is +115, Doncic is +275, Tatum is +475, Antetokounmpo is +900, Embiid is +1100, then everybody else is +2000 or higher.
• On the advanced stats, Tatum is kind of all over the place. BPM has him 17th, RAPTOR has him 25th, EPM is 8th, as you said, RPM is 1st, VORP is 6th, WS/48 is 17th. His aggregated stats (WS, VORP, etc.) are a little higher because the Celtics are a couple games played up, his playing a relative **** ton of minutes, and he's only missed to games (as you said on the the best abilities is availability). I'm not sure there is another elite player that the stats disagree on as much.
• Calling out the games that Brown missed is a bit misleading, they have beat the Pistons, Charlotte three times, and KD-less Brooklyn.
• I would say the thing that hinders Tatum with regards to Brown, is that close to half the time I watch the Celtics, Brown looks like the better player. I think some of that may be because Brown is a higher variance player where Tatum is a bit more steady, but at his best, Brown definitely pops a bit more to me.

The way BOS utilizes the J's is also kind of interesting. They generally play together the first 6 minutes and last 6 minutes of each half. The rest of the time, one usually plays while the other one rests. But Tatum is usually on the floor with 4 non-starters while Brown plays with three starters and someone else that gives them a match up advantage.

What does that mean? It means Brown has games where he scores a boatload of points in the 1st and 4 quarters when Tatum is sitting. And that's played out that way on multiple occasions. As I posted several times in this thread already, what may be the death of the Celtics will be stagnation and the lack of aggression at the end of games. Far too often they try to take the air out of the ball and their plan is for Tatum to chuck up a three with 1 second left on the shot clock. After 58 minutes of great ball movement, cutting, and getting into the paint, they stand around and watch Tatum. He can make those shots every now and again, but it's usually a wasted trip down the floor. Brown is much better in late game situations, either getting to the rim, hitting a long three, or making a mid range shot.

In that regard, I agree that some nights Brown looks like the better player. When I went to the C's and Pels last week (the game Brown got hurt), Brown looked like Jordan in his prime.Give him the ball and get out of the way. When Tatum ended up going the the free throw line at the end of the game, the crowd kept chanting MVP. My son and I were like, "He wasn't remotely close to being the most valuable player in the game, why are they chanting that?" CJ McCollum also played way better than Tatum did. Brogdon also played better coming off the bench for Boston. I can understand when a guy goes for 45 or 50, but not when someone else is playing way better.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Pretty cool game between Memphis and Cleveland. Both teams really fighting hard and the stars were in full force. Mobley had a lot of nice touches around the basket and garland was in control, but Ja and Bane ended up just being too much for the Cavs.

 

[Beef Ravioli Part 2]

Pretty cool game between Memphis and Cleveland. Both teams really fighting hard and the stars were in full force. Mobley had a lot of nice touches around the basket and garland was in control, but Ja and Bane ended up just being too much for the Cavs.

The short handed Cavs, I might add. I thought with Donovan Mitchell out, the Cavs would get beat by 20.

Cavs laid an egg in the last 30 seconds (couple of calls didn’t go their way) but they fought hard and almost pulled it out.

ETA - that was a hard fought game and fun to watch!

 

[MAC_32]

Pretty cool game between Memphis and Cleveland. Both teams really fighting hard and the stars were in full force. Mobley had a lot of nice touches around the basket and garland was in control, but Ja and Bane ended up just being too much for the Cavs.

It was a lot of fun for 46 1/2 minutes. I'd like to roll my eyes at the zebras for that gift they gave Ja on that blocking foul on Allen, but only themselves to blame for what transpired after.

 

[Jayrod]

• I would say the thing that hinders Tatum with regards to Brown, is that close to half the time I watch the Celtics, Brown looks like the better player. I think some of that may be because Brown is a higher variance player where Tatum is a bit more steady, but at his best, Brown definitely pops a bit more to me.

I was with you until this.

Tatum isn't just a bit more steady, he is the foundation of everything the Celtics do. Take Brown off the Celtics and they lose 4-5 more games this year. Take Tatum off and I doubt they are even .500. Maybe from game to game, Brown can generate better looks 1 on 1 for himself, but Tatum is far and away a better passer, ball handler and rebounder (I consider them even defensively). And when Tatum is on he is completely unstoppable and puts up 40-50+ points.

ETA: You are also conveniently forgetting the times that Brown develops hands of stone and kicks the ball all over the court generating turnover after turnover.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Celtics-Warriors was a fun, intense game tonight. Would have been more fun with good officiating though. Celts in the bonus from the 8:11 mark onward in the 4th. Tons of bailout calls. It was like watching the Italian national team take dives.

Regardless, it’s great to watch a game with intensity.

 

[the moops]

Take Tatum off and I doubt they are even .500.

Disagree here. They are a playoff team without Tatum, IMO.

 

[msudaisy26]

I am not arguing how good Tatum is or isn't. I think he is a fabulous player, but it is really stupid to argue at what age someone did something. Especially when it is the younger ages. Some guys stay in school longer than others, and some players have birthdays after the season is over.

So some how player A is better than player B because player A was born in August and made it to the finals when he was 25 and player B made it to the finals when he was 26 because his birthday is in March.