2023 College football thread - That's A Wrap (1 Viewer)

[Tau837]

A lot of smoke on Twitter today about FSU pulling the lever and leaving the ACC. Local reporters with a lot of eyes emojis etc. As always I doubt anything happens but it’s out there.

Them and Clemson will be leaving. Just a matter of time.

Per the ACC Grant of Rights, the ACC has all media rights for all sports for current full ACC members until 2035. Are you assuming they defeat the ACC Grant of Rights in court? Or are you assuming the ACC negotiates a buyout?

If the latter, why would the ACC do that? If they just let Clemson and FSU walk with no repercussions, then (a) the conference is obviously weakened by losing two strong football programs and (b) it sets the stage for any other members to walk whenever they want to.

I grant you, ACC members could definitely seriously consider leaving in the early 2030s... but that's a long time from now.

 

[Instinctive]

A lot of smoke on Twitter today about FSU pulling the lever and leaving the ACC. Local reporters with a lot of eyes emojis etc. As always I doubt anything happens but it’s out there.

Them and Clemson will be leaving. Just a matter of time.

Per the ACC Grant of Rights, the ACC has all media rights for all ACC sports until 2035. Are you assuming they defeat the ACC Grant of Rights in court? Or are you assuming the ACC negotiates a buyout? If the latter, why would the ACC do that?

I grant you, ACC members could definitely seriously consider leaving in the early 2030s... but that's a long time from now.

I mean:
1. There could be a liquidated damages provision for breach
2. You can always just break a contract if you're willing to pay the damages and you think it's unlikely the court will order specific enforcement

So idk much about the specifics in the GoR, but just because it's locked up doesn't mean they couldn't bail.

 

[Tau837]

A lot of smoke on Twitter today about FSU pulling the lever and leaving the ACC. Local reporters with a lot of eyes emojis etc. As always I doubt anything happens but it’s out there.

Them and Clemson will be leaving. Just a matter of time.

Per the ACC Grant of Rights, the ACC has all media rights for all ACC sports until 2035. Are you assuming they defeat the ACC Grant of Rights in court? Or are you assuming the ACC negotiates a buyout? If the latter, why would the ACC do that?

I grant you, ACC members could definitely seriously consider leaving in the early 2030s... but that's a long time from now.

I mean:
1. There could be a liquidated damages provision for breach
2. You can always just break a contract if you're willing to pay the damages and you think it's unlikely the court will order specific enforcement

So idk much about the specifics in the GoR, but just because it's locked up doesn't mean they couldn't bail.

I think the fact that no member has left up to this point (in recent years) is a strong indicator about how hard that is to do.

 

[JAA]

A lot of smoke on Twitter today about FSU pulling the lever and leaving the ACC. Local reporters with a lot of eyes emojis etc. As always I doubt anything happens but it’s out there.

Them and Clemson will be leaving. Just a matter of time.

Per the ACC Grant of Rights, the ACC has all media rights for all sports for current full ACC members until 2035. Are you assuming they defeat the ACC Grant of Rights in court? Or are you assuming the ACC negotiates a buyout?

If the latter, why would the ACC do that? If they just let Clemson and FSU walk with no repercussions, then (a) the conference is obviously weakened by losing two strong football programs and (b) it sets the stage for any other members to walk whenever they want to.

I grant you, ACC members could definitely seriously consider leaving in the early 2030s... but that's a long time from now.

My gut tells me threats of lawsuits and settled payment terms. Feels like the norm these days

 

[CletiusMaximus]

It really is so stupid now with the blatant NIL transfer portal, conferences making no sense, etc. I never was a huge college football person, but now it is down to almost zero. Maybe I will watch the Penn State bowl game, but I probably will forget when it is on and miss it.

Why is it stupid? Universities have been making billions off of athletes for decades. Why shouldn't the athletes be compensated the same?

Athletics scholarships are only 1-year renewable contracts which can be pulled any time.

Coaches can leave and go wherever.

Regular students can go wherever and make whatever money they want off of their NIL while receiving an academic scholarship.

Yet athletes get none of this?

I don't think the portal will last long. It already seems so absurd the NCAA forced athletes to sit out (and lose) an entire season just because they moved from one school to another. The portal is really just a lesser control tool which I think will die soon. I could see virtually all NCAA eligibility controls being eliminated. There are influencers making millions on NIL as university gymnasts, golfers and volleyballers - on what basis can the NCAA tell them they can only play 4 years when the school will continue to accept them as students indefinitely?

 

[JAA]

It really is so stupid now with the blatant NIL transfer portal, conferences making no sense, etc. I never was a huge college football person, but now it is down to almost zero. Maybe I will watch the Penn State bowl game, but I probably will forget when it is on and miss it.

Why is it stupid? Universities have been making billions off of athletes for decades. Why shouldn't the athletes be compensated the same?

Athletics scholarships are only 1-year renewable contracts which can be pulled any time.

Coaches can leave and go wherever.

Regular students can go wherever and make whatever money they want off of their NIL while receiving an academic scholarship.

Yet athletes get none of this?

I don't think the portal will last long. It already seems so absurd the NCAA forced athletes to sit out (and lose) an entire season just because they moved from one school to another. The portal is really just a lesser control tool which I think will die soon. I could see virtually all NCAA eligibility controls being eliminated. There are influencers making millions on NIL as university gymnasts, golfers and volleyballers - on what basis can the NCAA tell them they can only play 4 years when the school will continue to accept them as students indefinitely?

I believe the B1G and SEC are looking to drop the NCAA for football. I believe this will happen in less than 10 years.

 

[Tau837]

A lot of smoke on Twitter today about FSU pulling the lever and leaving the ACC. Local reporters with a lot of eyes emojis etc. As always I doubt anything happens but it’s out there.

Them and Clemson will be leaving. Just a matter of time.

Per the ACC Grant of Rights, the ACC has all media rights for all sports for current full ACC members until 2035. Are you assuming they defeat the ACC Grant of Rights in court? Or are you assuming the ACC negotiates a buyout?

If the latter, why would the ACC do that? If they just let Clemson and FSU walk with no repercussions, then (a) the conference is obviously weakened by losing two strong football programs and (b) it sets the stage for any other members to walk whenever they want to.

I grant you, ACC members could definitely seriously consider leaving in the early 2030s... but that's a long time from now.

My gut tells me threats of lawsuits and settled payment terms. Feels like the norm these days

I don't see why the ACC would be motivated to support negotiating a settlement. Any settlement basically means the end of the ACC. I think they will force any members who want to leave to win in court.

By the way, I wrote 2035, but it's actually 2036. And there is a $120M exit fee required on top of whatever comes of the GOR in court or negotiations.

Come to think of it, the ACC might be okay with the idea of getting paid $240M by FSU and Clemson and then getting rights to all of their home game media broadcasts, i.e., getting rights to broadcast SEC and/or B1G games, for 13 years.

 

[Peak]

A lot of smoke on Twitter today about FSU pulling the lever and leaving the ACC. Local reporters with a lot of eyes emojis etc. As always I doubt anything happens but it’s out there.

Them and Clemson will be leaving. Just a matter of time.

Per the ACC Grant of Rights, the ACC has all media rights for all sports for current full ACC members until 2035. Are you assuming they defeat the ACC Grant of Rights in court? Or are you assuming the ACC negotiates a buyout?

If the latter, why would the ACC do that? If they just let Clemson and FSU walk with no repercussions, then (a) the conference is obviously weakened by losing two strong football programs and (b) it sets the stage for any other members to walk whenever they want to.

I grant you, ACC members could definitely seriously consider leaving in the early 2030s... but that's a long time from now.

My gut tells me threats of lawsuits and settled payment terms. Feels like the norm these days

I don't see why the ACC would be motivated to support negotiating a settlement. Any settlement basically means the end of the ACC. I think they will force any members who want to leave to win in court.

By the way, I wrote 2035, but it's actually 2036. And there is a $120M exit fee required on top of whatever comes of the GOR in court or negotiations.

Come to think of it, the ACC might be okay with the idea of getting paid $240M by FSU and Clemson and then getting rights to all of their home game media broadcasts, i.e., getting rights to broadcast SEC and/or B1G games, for 13 years.

This would be the scenario - negotiation in payments, media revenue. As I posted previously, the exit fee would be about $200m based upon the revenue from the last tax submissions by the school - which is assuming FSU leaves the ACC in 2025 (announcing in 2024). Whichever conference FSU moves to (B1G or SEC), said conference would put up a loan - especially now with the media broadcasting group as backing (FOX and ESPN accordingly). With the media rights alone, FSU would see a minimum of $200m in new revenue over the first 5 years in the B1G conference. This doesn't include new money coming from the expansion of the CFP, to which being a member of the B1G or SEC would boost earnings for FSU on a yearly basis. As mentioned in the article I posted, "the GOR value will end up being a network based resolution and games can be moved around to make everyone whole - just as FOX and ESPN did with the exit of OU and UT from the Big 12." Example provided:

Fiscal Year	ACC Est Payout	B1G Est Payout	FSU Estimated Difference
FY 2024-25	39.6 M	77.0 M	37.4 M + New CFP $$
FY 2025-26	54.3 M	96.0 M	41.7 M + New CFP $$
FY 2026-27	56.6 M	98.9 M	42.3 M + New CFP $$
FY 2027-28	59.0 M	101.9 M	42.9 M + New CFP $$
FY 2028-29	61.5 M	104.9 M	43.4 M + New CFP $$

Estimated 5 yr Difference = 207.7 M + New CFP $$
Next 5 years (minimum, if flat) = 217.0 M + New CFP $$
First 10 years (minimum, if flat) = 424.7 M + New CFP $$

So essentially, with an established revenue stream from the conference and media backing FSU, they will be in a position to negotiate any type of buyout ($$ plus tv/media rights for games) needed to cover exit clause and GOR. Just because no one has left ACC doesn't mean it's not possible. As stated previously, threats of lawsuits and settled payout terms are the norm nowadays. The conference didn't back FSU in the CFP, even with representation on the committee. I think FSU has a solid argument to leave, and the money will be there for them wherever they choose to go (B1G or SEC). I don't think that can be ignored and just dismissed. The idea of a P2 set up is coming with the B1G and SEC taking control. It's not a matter of if, but when.

 

[JAA]

A lot of smoke on Twitter today about FSU pulling the lever and leaving the ACC. Local reporters with a lot of eyes emojis etc. As always I doubt anything happens but it’s out there.

Them and Clemson will be leaving. Just a matter of time.

Per the ACC Grant of Rights, the ACC has all media rights for all sports for current full ACC members until 2035. Are you assuming they defeat the ACC Grant of Rights in court? Or are you assuming the ACC negotiates a buyout?

If the latter, why would the ACC do that? If they just let Clemson and FSU walk with no repercussions, then (a) the conference is obviously weakened by losing two strong football programs and (b) it sets the stage for any other members to walk whenever they want to.

I grant you, ACC members could definitely seriously consider leaving in the early 2030s... but that's a long time from now.

My gut tells me threats of lawsuits and settled payment terms. Feels like the norm these days

I don't see why the ACC would be motivated to support negotiating a settlement. Any settlement basically means the end of the ACC. I think they will force any members who want to leave to win in court.

By the way, I wrote 2035, but it's actually 2036. And there is a $120M exit fee required on top of whatever comes of the GOR in court or negotiations.

Come to think of it, the ACC might be okay with the idea of getting paid $240M by FSU and Clemson and then getting rights to all of their home game media broadcasts, i.e., getting rights to broadcast SEC and/or B1G games, for 13 years.

Well ... if the ACC SoS is keeping FSU out of the playoffs and losing them money ... is there cause there?

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

A lot of smoke on Twitter today about FSU pulling the lever and leaving the ACC. Local reporters with a lot of eyes emojis etc. As always I doubt anything happens but it’s out there.

Them and Clemson will be leaving. Just a matter of time.

Per the ACC Grant of Rights, the ACC has all media rights for all sports for current full ACC members until 2035. Are you assuming they defeat the ACC Grant of Rights in court? Or are you assuming the ACC negotiates a buyout?

If the latter, why would the ACC do that? If they just let Clemson and FSU walk with no repercussions, then (a) the conference is obviously weakened by losing two strong football programs and (b) it sets the stage for any other members to walk whenever they want to.

I grant you, ACC members could definitely seriously consider leaving in the early 2030s... but that's a long time from now.

My gut tells me threats of lawsuits and settled payment terms. Feels like the norm these days

I don't see why the ACC would be motivated to support negotiating a settlement. Any settlement basically means the end of the ACC. I think they will force any members who want to leave to win in court.

By the way, I wrote 2035, but it's actually 2036. And there is a $120M exit fee required on top of whatever comes of the GOR in court or negotiations.

Come to think of it, the ACC might be okay with the idea of getting paid $240M by FSU and Clemson and then getting rights to all of their home game media broadcasts, i.e., getting rights to broadcast SEC and/or B1G games, for 13 years.

Well ... if the ACC SoS is keeping FSU out of the playoffs and losing them money ... is there cause there?

Won’t the counter be that the committee and espn colluded to keep Alabama in the playoffs?

 

[JAA]

A lot of smoke on Twitter today about FSU pulling the lever and leaving the ACC. Local reporters with a lot of eyes emojis etc. As always I doubt anything happens but it’s out there.

Them and Clemson will be leaving. Just a matter of time.

Per the ACC Grant of Rights, the ACC has all media rights for all sports for current full ACC members until 2035. Are you assuming they defeat the ACC Grant of Rights in court? Or are you assuming the ACC negotiates a buyout?

If the latter, why would the ACC do that? If they just let Clemson and FSU walk with no repercussions, then (a) the conference is obviously weakened by losing two strong football programs and (b) it sets the stage for any other members to walk whenever they want to.

I grant you, ACC members could definitely seriously consider leaving in the early 2030s... but that's a long time from now.

My gut tells me threats of lawsuits and settled payment terms. Feels like the norm these days

I don't see why the ACC would be motivated to support negotiating a settlement. Any settlement basically means the end of the ACC. I think they will force any members who want to leave to win in court.

By the way, I wrote 2035, but it's actually 2036. And there is a $120M exit fee required on top of whatever comes of the GOR in court or negotiations.

Come to think of it, the ACC might be okay with the idea of getting paid $240M by FSU and Clemson and then getting rights to all of their home game media broadcasts, i.e., getting rights to broadcast SEC and/or B1G games, for 13 years.

Well ... if the ACC SoS is keeping FSU out of the playoffs and losing them money ... is there cause there?

Won’t the counter be that the committee and espn colluded to keep Alabama in the playoffs?

I guess if FSU was looking for reasons, I think this could be one of them. FSU could make the /meritless/ argument that no B1G/SEC team has ever been left out of the playoffs and cost at least $2m.

 

[Tau837]

A lot of smoke on Twitter today about FSU pulling the lever and leaving the ACC. Local reporters with a lot of eyes emojis etc. As always I doubt anything happens but it’s out there.

Them and Clemson will be leaving. Just a matter of time.

Per the ACC Grant of Rights, the ACC has all media rights for all sports for current full ACC members until 2035. Are you assuming they defeat the ACC Grant of Rights in court? Or are you assuming the ACC negotiates a buyout?

If the latter, why would the ACC do that? If they just let Clemson and FSU walk with no repercussions, then (a) the conference is obviously weakened by losing two strong football programs and (b) it sets the stage for any other members to walk whenever they want to.

I grant you, ACC members could definitely seriously consider leaving in the early 2030s... but that's a long time from now.

My gut tells me threats of lawsuits and settled payment terms. Feels like the norm these days

I don't see why the ACC would be motivated to support negotiating a settlement. Any settlement basically means the end of the ACC. I think they will force any members who want to leave to win in court.

By the way, I wrote 2035, but it's actually 2036. And there is a $120M exit fee required on top of whatever comes of the GOR in court or negotiations.

Come to think of it, the ACC might be okay with the idea of getting paid $240M by FSU and Clemson and then getting rights to all of their home game media broadcasts, i.e., getting rights to broadcast SEC and/or B1G games, for 13 years.

This would be the scenario - negotiation in payments, media revenue. As I posted previously, the exit fee would be about $200m based upon the revenue from the last tax submissions by the school - which is assuming FSU leaves the ACC in 2025 (announcing in 2024). Whichever conference FSU moves to (B1G or SEC), said conference would put up a loan - especially now with the media broadcasting group as backing (FOX and ESPN accordingly). With the media rights alone, FSU would see a minimum of $200m in new revenue over the first 5 years in the B1G conference. This doesn't include new money coming from the expansion of the CFP, to which being a member of the B1G or SEC would boost earnings for FSU on a yearly basis. As mentioned in the article I posted, "the GOR value will end up being a network based resolution and games can be moved around to make everyone whole - just as FOX and ESPN did with the exit of OU and UT from the Big 12." Example provided:

Fiscal Year	ACC Est Payout	B1G Est Payout	FSU Estimated Difference
FY 2024-25	39.6 M	77.0 M	37.4 M + New CFP $$
FY 2025-26	54.3 M	96.0 M	41.7 M + New CFP $$
FY 2026-27	56.6 M	98.9 M	42.3 M + New CFP $$
FY 2027-28	59.0 M	101.9 M	42.9 M + New CFP $$
FY 2028-29	61.5 M	104.9 M	43.4 M + New CFP $$

Estimated 5 yr Difference = 207.7 M + New CFP $$
Next 5 years (minimum, if flat) = 217.0 M + New CFP $$
First 10 years (minimum, if flat) = 424.7 M + New CFP $$

So essentially, with an established revenue stream from the conference and media backing FSU, they will be in a position to negotiate any type of buyout ($$ plus tv/media rights for games) needed to cover exit clause and GOR. Just because no one has left ACC doesn't mean it's not possible. As stated previously, threats of lawsuits and settled payout terms are the norm nowadays. The conference didn't back FSU in the CFP, even with representation on the committee. I think FSU has a solid argument to leave, and the money will be there for them wherever they choose to go (B1G or SEC). I don't think that can be ignored and just dismissed. The idea of a P2 set up is coming with the B1G and SEC taking control. It's not a matter of if, but when.

You seem to assume the ACC will cooperate. They don't have to do that. Frankly, I don't see any reason they should consider that, unless they are convinced they will lose in court on a challenge to the GOR. But it has been reported for years that various universities have been examining it for purposes of challenging it, yet no university has done so. That suggests it is pretty difficult to overcome in court.

 

[Tau837]

A lot of smoke on Twitter today about FSU pulling the lever and leaving the ACC. Local reporters with a lot of eyes emojis etc. As always I doubt anything happens but it’s out there.

Them and Clemson will be leaving. Just a matter of time.

Per the ACC Grant of Rights, the ACC has all media rights for all sports for current full ACC members until 2035. Are you assuming they defeat the ACC Grant of Rights in court? Or are you assuming the ACC negotiates a buyout?

If the latter, why would the ACC do that? If they just let Clemson and FSU walk with no repercussions, then (a) the conference is obviously weakened by losing two strong football programs and (b) it sets the stage for any other members to walk whenever they want to.

I grant you, ACC members could definitely seriously consider leaving in the early 2030s... but that's a long time from now.

My gut tells me threats of lawsuits and settled payment terms. Feels like the norm these days

I don't see why the ACC would be motivated to support negotiating a settlement. Any settlement basically means the end of the ACC. I think they will force any members who want to leave to win in court.

By the way, I wrote 2035, but it's actually 2036. And there is a $120M exit fee required on top of whatever comes of the GOR in court or negotiations.

Come to think of it, the ACC might be okay with the idea of getting paid $240M by FSU and Clemson and then getting rights to all of their home game media broadcasts, i.e., getting rights to broadcast SEC and/or B1G games, for 13 years.

Well ... if the ACC SoS is keeping FSU out of the playoffs and losing them money ... is there cause there?

No.

Circumstances having nothing to do with ACC SOS -- namely, UGA losing to Bama and Travis getting hurt -- contributed as much or more to FSU being left out.

FSU chose to play their OOC schedule:

• LSU (SEC) - #9 FPI
• Florida (SEC) - #38 FPI
• Southern Miss (Sun Belt) - #119 FPI
• North Alabama (FCS) - not ranked in FPI

The ACC didn't control that.

It's unfortunate for FSU that Florida wasn't better this season... but that had nothing to do with the ACC.

None of that creates a basis of cause.

 

[Tau837]

Some of you don't seem to appreciate that caving to negotiating buyouts for FSU and Clemson is the end for the ACC. This (i.e., not negotiating) is the hill they should die on, because they are going to die if they let them go.

 

[Tom Servo]

ESPN' computer model ended up with this as their season ending rankings . . . which are pretty odd.

1. Michigan
2. Ohio State
3. Penn State
4. Oregon
5. Alabama
6. Georgia
7. Texas
8. Oklahoma
9. LSU
10. Notre Dame
11. Florida State
12. Kansas State
13. Washington
14. Texas A&M
15. Ole Miss
16. Missouri
17. Tennessee
18. Oregon State
19. Clemson
20. SMU

Looks like B1G is the real power conference.

 

[Capella]

Some of you don't seem to appreciate that caving to negotiating buyouts for FSU and Clemson is the end for the ACC. This (i.e., not negotiating) is the hill they should die on, because they are going to die if they let them go.

FSU is going to round up the cash one way or the other. Idk what to tell you but they won’t be there a lot longer. I expect them to be in the Big 10 for the 2025 season.

 

[Tom Servo]

A lot of smoke on Twitter today about FSU pulling the lever and leaving the ACC. Local reporters with a lot of eyes emojis etc. As always I doubt anything happens but it’s out there.

Them and Clemson will be leaving. Just a matter of time.

Per the ACC Grant of Rights, the ACC has all media rights for all sports for current full ACC members until 2035. Are you assuming they defeat the ACC Grant of Rights in court? Or are you assuming the ACC negotiates a buyout?

If the latter, why would the ACC do that? If they just let Clemson and FSU walk with no repercussions, then (a) the conference is obviously weakened by losing two strong football programs and (b) it sets the stage for any other members to walk whenever they want to.

I grant you, ACC members could definitely seriously consider leaving in the early 2030s... but that's a long time from now.

My gut tells me threats of lawsuits and settled payment terms. Feels like the norm these days

I don't see why the ACC would be motivated to support negotiating a settlement. Any settlement basically means the end of the ACC. I think they will force any members who want to leave to win in court.

By the way, I wrote 2035, but it's actually 2036. And there is a $120M exit fee required on top of whatever comes of the GOR in court or negotiations.

Come to think of it, the ACC might be okay with the idea of getting paid $240M by FSU and Clemson and then getting rights to all of their home game media broadcasts, i.e., getting rights to broadcast SEC and/or B1G games, for 13 years.

Well ... if the ACC SoS is keeping FSU out of the playoffs and losing them money ... is there cause there?

If the committee member is with FSU, he has to recuse him from the discussions. If they’re from Miami…

 

[Tau837]

Some of you don't seem to appreciate that caving to negotiating buyouts for FSU and Clemson is the end for the ACC. This (i.e., not negotiating) is the hill they should die on, because they are going to die if they let them go.

FSU is going to round up the cash one way or the other. Idk what to tell you but they won’t be there a lot longer. I expect them to be in the Big 10 for the 2025 season.

I mean, that's great for the ACC. They get a $120M to $200M buyout, then they get media rights to all of FSU sports home games (B1G games) for 11 years.

No idea why that would appeal to the B1G, but I could see where it would be a fine consolation for the ACC...

 

[Capella]

then they get media rights to all of FSU sports home games (B1G games) for 11 years.

Nah that’ll be part of the settlement. Not going to happen.

 

[Capella]

Some of you don't seem to appreciate that caving to negotiating buyouts for FSU and Clemson is the end for the ACC. This (i.e., not negotiating) is the hill they should die on, because they are going to die if they let them go.

They’re already dead.

 

[gump]

Nebraska may be about to flip Raiola

 

[Peak]

A lot of smoke on Twitter today about FSU pulling the lever and leaving the ACC. Local reporters with a lot of eyes emojis etc. As always I doubt anything happens but it’s out there.

Them and Clemson will be leaving. Just a matter of time.

Per the ACC Grant of Rights, the ACC has all media rights for all sports for current full ACC members until 2035. Are you assuming they defeat the ACC Grant of Rights in court? Or are you assuming the ACC negotiates a buyout?

If the latter, why would the ACC do that? If they just let Clemson and FSU walk with no repercussions, then (a) the conference is obviously weakened by losing two strong football programs and (b) it sets the stage for any other members to walk whenever they want to.

I grant you, ACC members could definitely seriously consider leaving in the early 2030s... but that's a long time from now.

My gut tells me threats of lawsuits and settled payment terms. Feels like the norm these days

I don't see why the ACC would be motivated to support negotiating a settlement. Any settlement basically means the end of the ACC. I think they will force any members who want to leave to win in court.

By the way, I wrote 2035, but it's actually 2036. And there is a $120M exit fee required on top of whatever comes of the GOR in court or negotiations.

Come to think of it, the ACC might be okay with the idea of getting paid $240M by FSU and Clemson and then getting rights to all of their home game media broadcasts, i.e., getting rights to broadcast SEC and/or B1G games, for 13 years.

This would be the scenario - negotiation in payments, media revenue. As I posted previously, the exit fee would be about $200m based upon the revenue from the last tax submissions by the school - which is assuming FSU leaves the ACC in 2025 (announcing in 2024). Whichever conference FSU moves to (B1G or SEC), said conference would put up a loan - especially now with the media broadcasting group as backing (FOX and ESPN accordingly). With the media rights alone, FSU would see a minimum of $200m in new revenue over the first 5 years in the B1G conference. This doesn't include new money coming from the expansion of the CFP, to which being a member of the B1G or SEC would boost earnings for FSU on a yearly basis. As mentioned in the article I posted, "the GOR value will end up being a network based resolution and games can be moved around to make everyone whole - just as FOX and ESPN did with the exit of OU and UT from the Big 12." Example provided:

Fiscal Year	ACC Est Payout	B1G Est Payout	FSU Estimated Difference
FY 2024-25	39.6 M	77.0 M	37.4 M + New CFP $$
FY 2025-26	54.3 M	96.0 M	41.7 M + New CFP $$
FY 2026-27	56.6 M	98.9 M	42.3 M + New CFP $$
FY 2027-28	59.0 M	101.9 M	42.9 M + New CFP $$
FY 2028-29	61.5 M	104.9 M	43.4 M + New CFP $$

Estimated 5 yr Difference = 207.7 M + New CFP $$
Next 5 years (minimum, if flat) = 217.0 M + New CFP $$
First 10 years (minimum, if flat) = 424.7 M + New CFP $$

So essentially, with an established revenue stream from the conference and media backing FSU, they will be in a position to negotiate any type of buyout ($$ plus tv/media rights for games) needed to cover exit clause and GOR. Just because no one has left ACC doesn't mean it's not possible. As stated previously, threats of lawsuits and settled payout terms are the norm nowadays. The conference didn't back FSU in the CFP, even with representation on the committee. I think FSU has a solid argument to leave, and the money will be there for them wherever they choose to go (B1G or SEC). I don't think that can be ignored and just dismissed. The idea of a P2 set up is coming with the B1G and SEC taking control. It's not a matter of if, but when.

You seem to assume the ACC will cooperate. They don't have to do that. Frankly, I don't see any reason they should consider that, unless they are convinced they will lose in court on a challenge to the GOR. But it has been reported for years that various universities have been examining it for purposes of challenging it, yet no university has done so. That suggests it is pretty difficult to overcome in court.

I guess it's a wait and see, as you're assuming the ACC won't cooperate. The ACC would make more money by having FSU pay them to leave and then bring in another team to replace them - double dipping on media rights.

 

[Instinctive]

It would actually be kinda cool that if this is gonna end up in a looks-like-the-NFL if they made a relegation system.

If we managed to get like a 16-team SEC, and 16-team Big Ten, and then a clear promotion and relegation with the ACC and Big 12...that would be sweet.

 

[The Commish]

Some of you don't seem to appreciate that caving to negotiating buyouts for FSU and Clemson is the end for the ACC. This (i.e., not negotiating) is the hill they should die on, because they are going to die if they let them go.

They’re already dead.

They started the slow bleed when they blew things up in bball to chase football dollars 4-5 years too late.

 

[Tau837]

Some of you don't seem to appreciate that caving to negotiating buyouts for FSU and Clemson is the end for the ACC. This (i.e., not negotiating) is the hill they should die on, because they are going to die if they let them go.

They’re already dead.

So you believe. But do they? I seriously doubt it.

 

[Tau837]

A lot of smoke on Twitter today about FSU pulling the lever and leaving the ACC. Local reporters with a lot of eyes emojis etc. As always I doubt anything happens but it’s out there.

Them and Clemson will be leaving. Just a matter of time.

Per the ACC Grant of Rights, the ACC has all media rights for all sports for current full ACC members until 2035. Are you assuming they defeat the ACC Grant of Rights in court? Or are you assuming the ACC negotiates a buyout?

If the latter, why would the ACC do that? If they just let Clemson and FSU walk with no repercussions, then (a) the conference is obviously weakened by losing two strong football programs and (b) it sets the stage for any other members to walk whenever they want to.

I grant you, ACC members could definitely seriously consider leaving in the early 2030s... but that's a long time from now.

My gut tells me threats of lawsuits and settled payment terms. Feels like the norm these days

I don't see why the ACC would be motivated to support negotiating a settlement. Any settlement basically means the end of the ACC. I think they will force any members who want to leave to win in court.

By the way, I wrote 2035, but it's actually 2036. And there is a $120M exit fee required on top of whatever comes of the GOR in court or negotiations.

Come to think of it, the ACC might be okay with the idea of getting paid $240M by FSU and Clemson and then getting rights to all of their home game media broadcasts, i.e., getting rights to broadcast SEC and/or B1G games, for 13 years.

This would be the scenario - negotiation in payments, media revenue. As I posted previously, the exit fee would be about $200m based upon the revenue from the last tax submissions by the school - which is assuming FSU leaves the ACC in 2025 (announcing in 2024). Whichever conference FSU moves to (B1G or SEC), said conference would put up a loan - especially now with the media broadcasting group as backing (FOX and ESPN accordingly). With the media rights alone, FSU would see a minimum of $200m in new revenue over the first 5 years in the B1G conference. This doesn't include new money coming from the expansion of the CFP, to which being a member of the B1G or SEC would boost earnings for FSU on a yearly basis. As mentioned in the article I posted, "the GOR value will end up being a network based resolution and games can be moved around to make everyone whole - just as FOX and ESPN did with the exit of OU and UT from the Big 12." Example provided:

Fiscal Year	ACC Est Payout	B1G Est Payout	FSU Estimated Difference
FY 2024-25	39.6 M	77.0 M	37.4 M + New CFP $$
FY 2025-26	54.3 M	96.0 M	41.7 M + New CFP $$
FY 2026-27	56.6 M	98.9 M	42.3 M + New CFP $$
FY 2027-28	59.0 M	101.9 M	42.9 M + New CFP $$
FY 2028-29	61.5 M	104.9 M	43.4 M + New CFP $$

Estimated 5 yr Difference = 207.7 M + New CFP $$
Next 5 years (minimum, if flat) = 217.0 M + New CFP $$
First 10 years (minimum, if flat) = 424.7 M + New CFP $$

So essentially, with an established revenue stream from the conference and media backing FSU, they will be in a position to negotiate any type of buyout ($$ plus tv/media rights for games) needed to cover exit clause and GOR. Just because no one has left ACC doesn't mean it's not possible. As stated previously, threats of lawsuits and settled payout terms are the norm nowadays. The conference didn't back FSU in the CFP, even with representation on the committee. I think FSU has a solid argument to leave, and the money will be there for them wherever they choose to go (B1G or SEC). I don't think that can be ignored and just dismissed. The idea of a P2 set up is coming with the B1G and SEC taking control. It's not a matter of if, but when.

You seem to assume the ACC will cooperate. They don't have to do that. Frankly, I don't see any reason they should consider that, unless they are convinced they will lose in court on a challenge to the GOR. But it has been reported for years that various universities have been examining it for purposes of challenging it, yet no university has done so. That suggests it is pretty difficult to overcome in court.

I guess it's a wait and see, as you're assuming the ACC won't cooperate. The ACC would make more money by having FSU pay them to leave and then bring in another team to replace them - double dipping on media rights.

Letting FSU and Clemson leave means the end of the ACC as a "Power 5" conference. They aren't going to replace them and maintain their standing. Which is exactly why this is likely a hill they will die on (i.e., court).

 

[Peak]

A lot of smoke on Twitter today about FSU pulling the lever and leaving the ACC. Local reporters with a lot of eyes emojis etc. As always I doubt anything happens but it’s out there.

Them and Clemson will be leaving. Just a matter of time.

Per the ACC Grant of Rights, the ACC has all media rights for all sports for current full ACC members until 2035. Are you assuming they defeat the ACC Grant of Rights in court? Or are you assuming the ACC negotiates a buyout?

If the latter, why would the ACC do that? If they just let Clemson and FSU walk with no repercussions, then (a) the conference is obviously weakened by losing two strong football programs and (b) it sets the stage for any other members to walk whenever they want to.

I grant you, ACC members could definitely seriously consider leaving in the early 2030s... but that's a long time from now.

My gut tells me threats of lawsuits and settled payment terms. Feels like the norm these days

I don't see why the ACC would be motivated to support negotiating a settlement. Any settlement basically means the end of the ACC. I think they will force any members who want to leave to win in court.

By the way, I wrote 2035, but it's actually 2036. And there is a $120M exit fee required on top of whatever comes of the GOR in court or negotiations.

Come to think of it, the ACC might be okay with the idea of getting paid $240M by FSU and Clemson and then getting rights to all of their home game media broadcasts, i.e., getting rights to broadcast SEC and/or B1G games, for 13 years.

This would be the scenario - negotiation in payments, media revenue. As I posted previously, the exit fee would be about $200m based upon the revenue from the last tax submissions by the school - which is assuming FSU leaves the ACC in 2025 (announcing in 2024). Whichever conference FSU moves to (B1G or SEC), said conference would put up a loan - especially now with the media broadcasting group as backing (FOX and ESPN accordingly). With the media rights alone, FSU would see a minimum of $200m in new revenue over the first 5 years in the B1G conference. This doesn't include new money coming from the expansion of the CFP, to which being a member of the B1G or SEC would boost earnings for FSU on a yearly basis. As mentioned in the article I posted, "the GOR value will end up being a network based resolution and games can be moved around to make everyone whole - just as FOX and ESPN did with the exit of OU and UT from the Big 12." Example provided:

Fiscal Year	ACC Est Payout	B1G Est Payout	FSU Estimated Difference
FY 2024-25	39.6 M	77.0 M	37.4 M + New CFP $$
FY 2025-26	54.3 M	96.0 M	41.7 M + New CFP $$
FY 2026-27	56.6 M	98.9 M	42.3 M + New CFP $$
FY 2027-28	59.0 M	101.9 M	42.9 M + New CFP $$
FY 2028-29	61.5 M	104.9 M	43.4 M + New CFP $$

Estimated 5 yr Difference = 207.7 M + New CFP $$
Next 5 years (minimum, if flat) = 217.0 M + New CFP $$
First 10 years (minimum, if flat) = 424.7 M + New CFP $$

So essentially, with an established revenue stream from the conference and media backing FSU, they will be in a position to negotiate any type of buyout ($$ plus tv/media rights for games) needed to cover exit clause and GOR. Just because no one has left ACC doesn't mean it's not possible. As stated previously, threats of lawsuits and settled payout terms are the norm nowadays. The conference didn't back FSU in the CFP, even with representation on the committee. I think FSU has a solid argument to leave, and the money will be there for them wherever they choose to go (B1G or SEC). I don't think that can be ignored and just dismissed. The idea of a P2 set up is coming with the B1G and SEC taking control. It's not a matter of if, but when.

You seem to assume the ACC will cooperate. They don't have to do that. Frankly, I don't see any reason they should consider that, unless they are convinced they will lose in court on a challenge to the GOR. But it has been reported for years that various universities have been examining it for purposes of challenging it, yet no university has done so. That suggests it is pretty difficult to overcome in court.

I guess it's a wait and see, as you're assuming the ACC won't cooperate. The ACC would make more money by having FSU pay them to leave and then bring in another team to replace them - double dipping on media rights.

Letting FSU and Clemson leave means the end of the ACC as a "Power 5" conference. They aren't going to replace them and maintain their standing. Which is exactly why this is likely a hill they will die on (i.e., court).

Realistically speaking, the ACC hasn't been a "Power 5" conference in football for awhile. Not since Clemson made that run awhile back. Even this year with an undefeated FSU team, the ACC commissioner still didn't fight to put them into the playoffs. They took a one loss team over an undefeated conference champion. That there tells you no one views ACC as a relevant power conference.

 

[Capella]

Some of you don't seem to appreciate that caving to negotiating buyouts for FSU and Clemson is the end for the ACC. This (i.e., not negotiating) is the hill they should die on, because they are going to die if they let them go.

They’re already dead.

So you believe. But do they? I seriously doubt it.

The ACC as a major football player is dead. They can hang on for their one auto bid every year and still be relevant in hoops but when it comes down to big time football it’s over.

 

[Tau837]

A lot of smoke on Twitter today about FSU pulling the lever and leaving the ACC. Local reporters with a lot of eyes emojis etc. As always I doubt anything happens but it’s out there.

Them and Clemson will be leaving. Just a matter of time.

Per the ACC Grant of Rights, the ACC has all media rights for all sports for current full ACC members until 2035. Are you assuming they defeat the ACC Grant of Rights in court? Or are you assuming the ACC negotiates a buyout?

If the latter, why would the ACC do that? If they just let Clemson and FSU walk with no repercussions, then (a) the conference is obviously weakened by losing two strong football programs and (b) it sets the stage for any other members to walk whenever they want to.

I grant you, ACC members could definitely seriously consider leaving in the early 2030s... but that's a long time from now.

My gut tells me threats of lawsuits and settled payment terms. Feels like the norm these days

I don't see why the ACC would be motivated to support negotiating a settlement. Any settlement basically means the end of the ACC. I think they will force any members who want to leave to win in court.

By the way, I wrote 2035, but it's actually 2036. And there is a $120M exit fee required on top of whatever comes of the GOR in court or negotiations.

Come to think of it, the ACC might be okay with the idea of getting paid $240M by FSU and Clemson and then getting rights to all of their home game media broadcasts, i.e., getting rights to broadcast SEC and/or B1G games, for 13 years.

This would be the scenario - negotiation in payments, media revenue. As I posted previously, the exit fee would be about $200m based upon the revenue from the last tax submissions by the school - which is assuming FSU leaves the ACC in 2025 (announcing in 2024). Whichever conference FSU moves to (B1G or SEC), said conference would put up a loan - especially now with the media broadcasting group as backing (FOX and ESPN accordingly). With the media rights alone, FSU would see a minimum of $200m in new revenue over the first 5 years in the B1G conference. This doesn't include new money coming from the expansion of the CFP, to which being a member of the B1G or SEC would boost earnings for FSU on a yearly basis. As mentioned in the article I posted, "the GOR value will end up being a network based resolution and games can be moved around to make everyone whole - just as FOX and ESPN did with the exit of OU and UT from the Big 12." Example provided:

Fiscal Year	ACC Est Payout	B1G Est Payout	FSU Estimated Difference
FY 2024-25	39.6 M	77.0 M	37.4 M + New CFP $$
FY 2025-26	54.3 M	96.0 M	41.7 M + New CFP $$
FY 2026-27	56.6 M	98.9 M	42.3 M + New CFP $$
FY 2027-28	59.0 M	101.9 M	42.9 M + New CFP $$
FY 2028-29	61.5 M	104.9 M	43.4 M + New CFP $$

Estimated 5 yr Difference = 207.7 M + New CFP $$
Next 5 years (minimum, if flat) = 217.0 M + New CFP $$
First 10 years (minimum, if flat) = 424.7 M + New CFP $$

So essentially, with an established revenue stream from the conference and media backing FSU, they will be in a position to negotiate any type of buyout ($$ plus tv/media rights for games) needed to cover exit clause and GOR. Just because no one has left ACC doesn't mean it's not possible. As stated previously, threats of lawsuits and settled payout terms are the norm nowadays. The conference didn't back FSU in the CFP, even with representation on the committee. I think FSU has a solid argument to leave, and the money will be there for them wherever they choose to go (B1G or SEC). I don't think that can be ignored and just dismissed. The idea of a P2 set up is coming with the B1G and SEC taking control. It's not a matter of if, but when.

You seem to assume the ACC will cooperate. They don't have to do that. Frankly, I don't see any reason they should consider that, unless they are convinced they will lose in court on a challenge to the GOR. But it has been reported for years that various universities have been examining it for purposes of challenging it, yet no university has done so. That suggests it is pretty difficult to overcome in court.

I guess it's a wait and see, as you're assuming the ACC won't cooperate. The ACC would make more money by having FSU pay them to leave and then bring in another team to replace them - double dipping on media rights.

Letting FSU and Clemson leave means the end of the ACC as a "Power 5" conference. They aren't going to replace them and maintain their standing. Which is exactly why this is likely a hill they will die on (i.e., court).

Realistically speaking, the ACC hasn't been a "Power 5" conference in football for awhile. Not since Clemson made that run awhile back. Even this year with an undefeated FSU team, the ACC commissioner still didn't fight to put them into the playoffs. They took a one loss team over an undefeated conference champion. That there tells you no one views ACC as a relevant power conference.

Doesn't matter. They would diminish their status by letting members walk. No reason for them to allow that.

 

[Tau837]

Some of you don't seem to appreciate that caving to negotiating buyouts for FSU and Clemson is the end for the ACC. This (i.e., not negotiating) is the hill they should die on, because they are going to die if they let them go.

They’re already dead.

So you believe. But do they? I seriously doubt it.

The ACC as a major football player is dead. They can hang on for their one auto bid every year and still be relevant in hoops but when it comes down to big time football it’s over.

Doesn't matter. They would diminish their status by letting members walk. No reason for them to allow that.

 

[Tau837]

You guys are just seemingly ignoring the legal reality. As noted, there is no reason for the ACC to ignore it.

 

[Capella]

You guys are just seemingly ignoring the legal reality. As noted, there is no reason for the ACC to ignore it.

I’m not ignoring anything. FSU will just buy their way out.

 

[Tom Servo]

Some of you don't seem to appreciate that caving to negotiating buyouts for FSU and Clemson is the end for the ACC. This (i.e., not negotiating) is the hill they should die on, because they are going to die if they let them go.

They’re already dead.

They just don’t know it yet.

 

[Tom Servo]

You guys are just seemingly ignoring the legal reality. As noted, there is no reason for the ACC to ignore it.

I’m not ignoring anything. FSU will just buy their way out.

And JWB is ignoring the reality that if FOX wants FSU in the B1G, it will happen. The ACC will take their L and several million dollars and like it.

 

[Tau837]

You guys are just seemingly ignoring the legal reality. As noted, there is no reason for the ACC to ignore it.

I’m not ignoring anything. FSU will just buy their way out.

And JWB is ignoring the reality that if FOX wants FSU in the B1G, it will happen. The ACC will take their L and several million dollars and like it.

I'm not ignoring anything. The ACC holds the legal trump card. Believing FSU (or any team) will just "buy their way out" assumes things that cannot reasonably be assumed.

 

[WDIK2]

Nebraska may be about to flip Raiola

Will believe it when I see it. Rumor is something changed with his NIL at UGA and that Nebraska is bringing in a "name" QB coach. Just rumors.

Rhule knew what he was doing when he put out the cost of a good QB in that press conference.

 

[Capella]

You guys are just seemingly ignoring the legal reality. As noted, there is no reason for the ACC to ignore it.

I’m not ignoring anything. FSU will just buy their way out.

And JWB is ignoring the reality that if FOX wants FSU in the B1G, it will happen. The ACC will take their L and several million dollars and like it.

I'm not ignoring anything. The ACC holds the legal trump card. Believing FSU (or any team) will just "buy their way out" assumes things that cannot reasonably be assumed.

No offense but have you not been paying attention the last 10 years?

 

[The Commish]

No offense but have you not been paying attention the last 10 years?

Something feels off in this whole thing to me. As far as I can see, these schools have a few options.

1. They can bail and forfeit their rights.
2. They can sue to get their rights back.
3. They can negotiate exit terms.
4. They can wait for the conference to dissolve and get their rights back.

If FSU and Clemson bail....throw in Miami and/or UNC etc...whoever, it's almost certain that the media groups are coming back to the ACC to renegotiate their deal with the conference. There is no way that these media companies will want to fork out those kinds of dollars for the product that is left behind and that's going to screw the entire rest of the conference. The conference is going to have to make up that revenue somewhere. They might as well negotiate an exit that gives them a little buffer from the gap created by the inferior product. Not sure what else I'm missing here though.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

You guys are just seemingly ignoring the legal reality. As noted, there is no reason for the ACC to ignore it.

I’m not ignoring anything. FSU will just buy their way out.

And JWB is ignoring the reality that if FOX wants FSU in the B1G, it will happen. The ACC will take their L and several million dollars and like it.

Isn't everyone saying the same thing? If FSU wants out bad enough, they will leave. They will also pay the exit fee and give up their media money until 2035 but they'll still be gone.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

A lot of smoke on Twitter today about FSU pulling the lever and leaving the ACC. Local reporters with a lot of eyes emojis etc. As always I doubt anything happens but it’s out there.

Them and Clemson will be leaving. Just a matter of time.

Per the ACC Grant of Rights, the ACC has all media rights for all sports for current full ACC members until 2035. Are you assuming they defeat the ACC Grant of Rights in court? Or are you assuming the ACC negotiates a buyout?

If the latter, why would the ACC do that? If they just let Clemson and FSU walk with no repercussions, then (a) the conference is obviously weakened by losing two strong football programs and (b) it sets the stage for any other members to walk whenever they want to.

I grant you, ACC members could definitely seriously consider leaving in the early 2030s... but that's a long time from now.

My gut tells me threats of lawsuits and settled payment terms. Feels like the norm these days

I don't see why the ACC would be motivated to support negotiating a settlement. Any settlement basically means the end of the ACC. I think they will force any members who want to leave to win in court.

By the way, I wrote 2035, but it's actually 2036. And there is a $120M exit fee required on top of whatever comes of the GOR in court or negotiations.

Come to think of it, the ACC might be okay with the idea of getting paid $240M by FSU and Clemson and then getting rights to all of their home game media broadcasts, i.e., getting rights to broadcast SEC and/or B1G games, for 13 years.

This would be the scenario - negotiation in payments, media revenue. As I posted previously, the exit fee would be about $200m based upon the revenue from the last tax submissions by the school - which is assuming FSU leaves the ACC in 2025 (announcing in 2024). Whichever conference FSU moves to (B1G or SEC), said conference would put up a loan - especially now with the media broadcasting group as backing (FOX and ESPN accordingly). With the media rights alone, FSU would see a minimum of $200m in new revenue over the first 5 years in the B1G conference. This doesn't include new money coming from the expansion of the CFP, to which being a member of the B1G or SEC would boost earnings for FSU on a yearly basis. As mentioned in the article I posted, "the GOR value will end up being a network based resolution and games can be moved around to make everyone whole - just as FOX and ESPN did with the exit of OU and UT from the Big 12." Example provided:

Fiscal Year	ACC Est Payout	B1G Est Payout	FSU Estimated Difference
FY 2024-25	39.6 M	77.0 M	37.4 M + New CFP $$
FY 2025-26	54.3 M	96.0 M	41.7 M + New CFP $$
FY 2026-27	56.6 M	98.9 M	42.3 M + New CFP $$
FY 2027-28	59.0 M	101.9 M	42.9 M + New CFP $$
FY 2028-29	61.5 M	104.9 M	43.4 M + New CFP $$

Estimated 5 yr Difference = 207.7 M + New CFP $$
Next 5 years (minimum, if flat) = 217.0 M + New CFP $$
First 10 years (minimum, if flat) = 424.7 M + New CFP $$

So essentially, with an established revenue stream from the conference and media backing FSU, they will be in a position to negotiate any type of buyout ($$ plus tv/media rights for games) needed to cover exit clause and GOR. Just because no one has left ACC doesn't mean it's not possible. As stated previously, threats of lawsuits and settled payout terms are the norm nowadays. The conference didn't back FSU in the CFP, even with representation on the committee. I think FSU has a solid argument to leave, and the money will be there for them wherever they choose to go (B1G or SEC). I don't think that can be ignored and just dismissed. The idea of a P2 set up is coming with the B1G and SEC taking control. It's not a matter of if, but when.

You seem to assume the ACC will cooperate. They don't have to do that. Frankly, I don't see any reason they should consider that, unless they are convinced they will lose in court on a challenge to the GOR. But it has been reported for years that various universities have been examining it for purposes of challenging it, yet no university has done so. That suggests it is pretty difficult to overcome in court.

I guess it's a wait and see, as you're assuming the ACC won't cooperate. The ACC would make more money by having FSU pay them to leave and then bring in another team to replace them - double dipping on media rights.

Letting FSU and Clemson leave means the end of the ACC as a "Power 5" conference. They aren't going to replace them and maintain their standing. Which is exactly why this is likely a hill they will die on (i.e., court).

Realistically speaking, the ACC hasn't been a "Power 5" conference in football for awhile. Not since Clemson made that run awhile back. Even this year with an undefeated FSU team, the ACC commissioner still didn't fight to put them into the playoffs. They took a one loss team over an undefeated conference champion. That there tells you no one views ACC as a relevant power conference.

Not arguing your outcome but let's be honest, all this years playoff selection told us was ESPN is colluding with the CFB playoff to make sure the SEC was included.

 

[gump]

Nebraska may be about to flip Raiola

Will believe it when I see it. Rumor is something changed with his NIL at UGA and that Nebraska is bringing in a "name" QB coach. Just rumors.

Rhule knew what he was doing when he put out the cost of a good QB in that press conference.

‘Name’ QB Coach

 

[Tom Servo]

Nebraska may be about to flip Raiola

Will believe it when I see it. Rumor is something changed with his NIL at UGA and that Nebraska is bringing in a "name" QB coach. Just rumors.

Rhule knew what he was doing when he put out the cost of a good QB in that press conference.

‘Name’ QB Coach

I was hoping it was Uncle Rico.

 

[Tom Servo]

UNC QB Drake Maye declares for the NFL draft.

 

[JAA]

A lot of smoke on Twitter today about FSU pulling the lever and leaving the ACC. Local reporters with a lot of eyes emojis etc. As always I doubt anything happens but it’s out there.

Them and Clemson will be leaving. Just a matter of time.

Per the ACC Grant of Rights, the ACC has all media rights for all sports for current full ACC members until 2035. Are you assuming they defeat the ACC Grant of Rights in court? Or are you assuming the ACC negotiates a buyout?

If the latter, why would the ACC do that? If they just let Clemson and FSU walk with no repercussions, then (a) the conference is obviously weakened by losing two strong football programs and (b) it sets the stage for any other members to walk whenever they want to.

I grant you, ACC members could definitely seriously consider leaving in the early 2030s... but that's a long time from now.

My gut tells me threats of lawsuits and settled payment terms. Feels like the norm these days

I don't see why the ACC would be motivated to support negotiating a settlement. Any settlement basically means the end of the ACC. I think they will force any members who want to leave to win in court.

By the way, I wrote 2035, but it's actually 2036. And there is a $120M exit fee required on top of whatever comes of the GOR in court or negotiations.

Come to think of it, the ACC might be okay with the idea of getting paid $240M by FSU and Clemson and then getting rights to all of their home game media broadcasts, i.e., getting rights to broadcast SEC and/or B1G games, for 13 years.

This would be the scenario - negotiation in payments, media revenue. As I posted previously, the exit fee would be about $200m based upon the revenue from the last tax submissions by the school - which is assuming FSU leaves the ACC in 2025 (announcing in 2024). Whichever conference FSU moves to (B1G or SEC), said conference would put up a loan - especially now with the media broadcasting group as backing (FOX and ESPN accordingly). With the media rights alone, FSU would see a minimum of $200m in new revenue over the first 5 years in the B1G conference. This doesn't include new money coming from the expansion of the CFP, to which being a member of the B1G or SEC would boost earnings for FSU on a yearly basis. As mentioned in the article I posted, "the GOR value will end up being a network based resolution and games can be moved around to make everyone whole - just as FOX and ESPN did with the exit of OU and UT from the Big 12." Example provided:

Fiscal Year	ACC Est Payout	B1G Est Payout	FSU Estimated Difference
FY 2024-25	39.6 M	77.0 M	37.4 M + New CFP $$
FY 2025-26	54.3 M	96.0 M	41.7 M + New CFP $$
FY 2026-27	56.6 M	98.9 M	42.3 M + New CFP $$
FY 2027-28	59.0 M	101.9 M	42.9 M + New CFP $$
FY 2028-29	61.5 M	104.9 M	43.4 M + New CFP $$

Estimated 5 yr Difference = 207.7 M + New CFP $$
Next 5 years (minimum, if flat) = 217.0 M + New CFP $$
First 10 years (minimum, if flat) = 424.7 M + New CFP $$

So essentially, with an established revenue stream from the conference and media backing FSU, they will be in a position to negotiate any type of buyout ($$ plus tv/media rights for games) needed to cover exit clause and GOR. Just because no one has left ACC doesn't mean it's not possible. As stated previously, threats of lawsuits and settled payout terms are the norm nowadays. The conference didn't back FSU in the CFP, even with representation on the committee. I think FSU has a solid argument to leave, and the money will be there for them wherever they choose to go (B1G or SEC). I don't think that can be ignored and just dismissed. The idea of a P2 set up is coming with the B1G and SEC taking control. It's not a matter of if, but when.

You seem to assume the ACC will cooperate. They don't have to do that. Frankly, I don't see any reason they should consider that, unless they are convinced they will lose in court on a challenge to the GOR. But it has been reported for years that various universities have been examining it for purposes of challenging it, yet no university has done so. That suggests it is pretty difficult to overcome in court.

Take a look at the demise of the Big East, and most recently Pac12. The word "cooperate" is a legal term.

 

[JAA]

A lot of smoke on Twitter today about FSU pulling the lever and leaving the ACC. Local reporters with a lot of eyes emojis etc. As always I doubt anything happens but it’s out there.

Them and Clemson will be leaving. Just a matter of time.

Per the ACC Grant of Rights, the ACC has all media rights for all sports for current full ACC members until 2035. Are you assuming they defeat the ACC Grant of Rights in court? Or are you assuming the ACC negotiates a buyout?

If the latter, why would the ACC do that? If they just let Clemson and FSU walk with no repercussions, then (a) the conference is obviously weakened by losing two strong football programs and (b) it sets the stage for any other members to walk whenever they want to.

I grant you, ACC members could definitely seriously consider leaving in the early 2030s... but that's a long time from now.

My gut tells me threats of lawsuits and settled payment terms. Feels like the norm these days

I don't see why the ACC would be motivated to support negotiating a settlement. Any settlement basically means the end of the ACC. I think they will force any members who want to leave to win in court.

By the way, I wrote 2035, but it's actually 2036. And there is a $120M exit fee required on top of whatever comes of the GOR in court or negotiations.

Come to think of it, the ACC might be okay with the idea of getting paid $240M by FSU and Clemson and then getting rights to all of their home game media broadcasts, i.e., getting rights to broadcast SEC and/or B1G games, for 13 years.

Well ... if the ACC SoS is keeping FSU out of the playoffs and losing them money ... is there cause there?

No.

Circumstances having nothing to do with ACC SOS -- namely, UGA losing to Bama and Travis getting hurt -- contributed as much or more to FSU being left out.

FSU chose to play their OOC schedule:

• LSU (SEC) - #9 FPI
• Florida (SEC) - #38 FPI
• Southern Miss (Sun Belt) - #119 FPI
• North Alabama (FCS) - not ranked in FPI

The ACC didn't control that.

It's unfortunate for FSU that Florida wasn't better this season... but that had nothing to do with the ACC.

None of that creates a basis of cause.

I can paint a different narrative than that. It isnt hard.

 

[JAA]

A lot of smoke on Twitter today about FSU pulling the lever and leaving the ACC. Local reporters with a lot of eyes emojis etc. As always I doubt anything happens but it’s out there.

Them and Clemson will be leaving. Just a matter of time.

Per the ACC Grant of Rights, the ACC has all media rights for all sports for current full ACC members until 2035. Are you assuming they defeat the ACC Grant of Rights in court? Or are you assuming the ACC negotiates a buyout?

If the latter, why would the ACC do that? If they just let Clemson and FSU walk with no repercussions, then (a) the conference is obviously weakened by losing two strong football programs and (b) it sets the stage for any other members to walk whenever they want to.

I grant you, ACC members could definitely seriously consider leaving in the early 2030s... but that's a long time from now.

My gut tells me threats of lawsuits and settled payment terms. Feels like the norm these days

I don't see why the ACC would be motivated to support negotiating a settlement. Any settlement basically means the end of the ACC. I think they will force any members who want to leave to win in court.

By the way, I wrote 2035, but it's actually 2036. And there is a $120M exit fee required on top of whatever comes of the GOR in court or negotiations.

Come to think of it, the ACC might be okay with the idea of getting paid $240M by FSU and Clemson and then getting rights to all of their home game media broadcasts, i.e., getting rights to broadcast SEC and/or B1G games, for 13 years.

This would be the scenario - negotiation in payments, media revenue. As I posted previously, the exit fee would be about $200m based upon the revenue from the last tax submissions by the school - which is assuming FSU leaves the ACC in 2025 (announcing in 2024). Whichever conference FSU moves to (B1G or SEC), said conference would put up a loan - especially now with the media broadcasting group as backing (FOX and ESPN accordingly). With the media rights alone, FSU would see a minimum of $200m in new revenue over the first 5 years in the B1G conference. This doesn't include new money coming from the expansion of the CFP, to which being a member of the B1G or SEC would boost earnings for FSU on a yearly basis. As mentioned in the article I posted, "the GOR value will end up being a network based resolution and games can be moved around to make everyone whole - just as FOX and ESPN did with the exit of OU and UT from the Big 12." Example provided:

Fiscal Year	ACC Est Payout	B1G Est Payout	FSU Estimated Difference
FY 2024-25	39.6 M	77.0 M	37.4 M + New CFP $$
FY 2025-26	54.3 M	96.0 M	41.7 M + New CFP $$
FY 2026-27	56.6 M	98.9 M	42.3 M + New CFP $$
FY 2027-28	59.0 M	101.9 M	42.9 M + New CFP $$
FY 2028-29	61.5 M	104.9 M	43.4 M + New CFP $$

Estimated 5 yr Difference = 207.7 M + New CFP $$
Next 5 years (minimum, if flat) = 217.0 M + New CFP $$
First 10 years (minimum, if flat) = 424.7 M + New CFP $$

So essentially, with an established revenue stream from the conference and media backing FSU, they will be in a position to negotiate any type of buyout ($$ plus tv/media rights for games) needed to cover exit clause and GOR. Just because no one has left ACC doesn't mean it's not possible. As stated previously, threats of lawsuits and settled payout terms are the norm nowadays. The conference didn't back FSU in the CFP, even with representation on the committee. I think FSU has a solid argument to leave, and the money will be there for them wherever they choose to go (B1G or SEC). I don't think that can be ignored and just dismissed. The idea of a P2 set up is coming with the B1G and SEC taking control. It's not a matter of if, but when.

You seem to assume the ACC will cooperate. They don't have to do that. Frankly, I don't see any reason they should consider that, unless they are convinced they will lose in court on a challenge to the GOR. But it has been reported for years that various universities have been examining it for purposes of challenging it, yet no university has done so. That suggests it is pretty difficult to overcome in court.

I guess it's a wait and see, as you're assuming the ACC won't cooperate. The ACC would make more money by having FSU pay them to leave and then bring in another team to replace them - double dipping on media rights.

Letting FSU and Clemson leave means the end of the ACC as a "Power 5" conference. They aren't going to replace them and maintain their standing. Which is exactly why this is likely a hill they will die on (i.e., court).

Realistically speaking, the ACC hasn't been a "Power 5" conference in football for awhile. Not since Clemson made that run awhile back. Even this year with an undefeated FSU team, the ACC commissioner still didn't fight to put them into the playoffs. They took a one loss team over an undefeated conference champion. That there tells you no one views ACC as a relevant power conference.

Not arguing your outcome but let's be honest, all this years playoff selection told us was ESPN is colluding with the CFB playoff to make sure the SEC was included.

this is spot on.

Could you imagine FSU painting this case in the legal proceedings of being excluded from the playoffs as part of their exit? The discovery here would want to be avoided. No one wants to go under oath for something like this.

Its very possible history will show ESPN killed the ACC by getting in bed with the SEC.

 

[Tau837]

You guys are just seemingly ignoring the legal reality. As noted, there is no reason for the ACC to ignore it.

I’m not ignoring anything. FSU will just buy their way out.

And JWB is ignoring the reality that if FOX wants FSU in the B1G, it will happen. The ACC will take their L and several million dollars and like it.

I'm not ignoring anything. The ACC holds the legal trump card. Believing FSU (or any team) will just "buy their way out" assumes things that cannot reasonably be assumed.

No offense but have you not been paying attention the last 10 years?

No offense, but have you not been paying attention to the actual subject of discussion?

Why don't you tell me the last time a league had something like the ACC Grant of Rights in place and either voluntarily waived it in a buyout negotiation or had it defeated in court?

 

[Tau837]

A lot of smoke on Twitter today about FSU pulling the lever and leaving the ACC. Local reporters with a lot of eyes emojis etc. As always I doubt anything happens but it’s out there.

Them and Clemson will be leaving. Just a matter of time.

Per the ACC Grant of Rights, the ACC has all media rights for all sports for current full ACC members until 2035. Are you assuming they defeat the ACC Grant of Rights in court? Or are you assuming the ACC negotiates a buyout?

If the latter, why would the ACC do that? If they just let Clemson and FSU walk with no repercussions, then (a) the conference is obviously weakened by losing two strong football programs and (b) it sets the stage for any other members to walk whenever they want to.

I grant you, ACC members could definitely seriously consider leaving in the early 2030s... but that's a long time from now.

My gut tells me threats of lawsuits and settled payment terms. Feels like the norm these days

I don't see why the ACC would be motivated to support negotiating a settlement. Any settlement basically means the end of the ACC. I think they will force any members who want to leave to win in court.

By the way, I wrote 2035, but it's actually 2036. And there is a $120M exit fee required on top of whatever comes of the GOR in court or negotiations.

Come to think of it, the ACC might be okay with the idea of getting paid $240M by FSU and Clemson and then getting rights to all of their home game media broadcasts, i.e., getting rights to broadcast SEC and/or B1G games, for 13 years.

This would be the scenario - negotiation in payments, media revenue. As I posted previously, the exit fee would be about $200m based upon the revenue from the last tax submissions by the school - which is assuming FSU leaves the ACC in 2025 (announcing in 2024). Whichever conference FSU moves to (B1G or SEC), said conference would put up a loan - especially now with the media broadcasting group as backing (FOX and ESPN accordingly). With the media rights alone, FSU would see a minimum of $200m in new revenue over the first 5 years in the B1G conference. This doesn't include new money coming from the expansion of the CFP, to which being a member of the B1G or SEC would boost earnings for FSU on a yearly basis. As mentioned in the article I posted, "the GOR value will end up being a network based resolution and games can be moved around to make everyone whole - just as FOX and ESPN did with the exit of OU and UT from the Big 12." Example provided:

Fiscal Year	ACC Est Payout	B1G Est Payout	FSU Estimated Difference
FY 2024-25	39.6 M	77.0 M	37.4 M + New CFP $$
FY 2025-26	54.3 M	96.0 M	41.7 M + New CFP $$
FY 2026-27	56.6 M	98.9 M	42.3 M + New CFP $$
FY 2027-28	59.0 M	101.9 M	42.9 M + New CFP $$
FY 2028-29	61.5 M	104.9 M	43.4 M + New CFP $$

Estimated 5 yr Difference = 207.7 M + New CFP $$
Next 5 years (minimum, if flat) = 217.0 M + New CFP $$
First 10 years (minimum, if flat) = 424.7 M + New CFP $$

So essentially, with an established revenue stream from the conference and media backing FSU, they will be in a position to negotiate any type of buyout ($$ plus tv/media rights for games) needed to cover exit clause and GOR. Just because no one has left ACC doesn't mean it's not possible. As stated previously, threats of lawsuits and settled payout terms are the norm nowadays. The conference didn't back FSU in the CFP, even with representation on the committee. I think FSU has a solid argument to leave, and the money will be there for them wherever they choose to go (B1G or SEC). I don't think that can be ignored and just dismissed. The idea of a P2 set up is coming with the B1G and SEC taking control. It's not a matter of if, but when.

You seem to assume the ACC will cooperate. They don't have to do that. Frankly, I don't see any reason they should consider that, unless they are convinced they will lose in court on a challenge to the GOR. But it has been reported for years that various universities have been examining it for purposes of challenging it, yet no university has done so. That suggests it is pretty difficult to overcome in court.

Take a look at the demise of the Big East, and most recently Pac12. The word "cooperate" is a legal term.

Did the Big East or PAC12 have a legal Grant of Rights? Pretty sure they didn't.

 

[Tau837]

A lot of smoke on Twitter today about FSU pulling the lever and leaving the ACC. Local reporters with a lot of eyes emojis etc. As always I doubt anything happens but it’s out there.

Them and Clemson will be leaving. Just a matter of time.

Per the ACC Grant of Rights, the ACC has all media rights for all sports for current full ACC members until 2035. Are you assuming they defeat the ACC Grant of Rights in court? Or are you assuming the ACC negotiates a buyout?

If the latter, why would the ACC do that? If they just let Clemson and FSU walk with no repercussions, then (a) the conference is obviously weakened by losing two strong football programs and (b) it sets the stage for any other members to walk whenever they want to.

I grant you, ACC members could definitely seriously consider leaving in the early 2030s... but that's a long time from now.

My gut tells me threats of lawsuits and settled payment terms. Feels like the norm these days

I don't see why the ACC would be motivated to support negotiating a settlement. Any settlement basically means the end of the ACC. I think they will force any members who want to leave to win in court.

By the way, I wrote 2035, but it's actually 2036. And there is a $120M exit fee required on top of whatever comes of the GOR in court or negotiations.

Come to think of it, the ACC might be okay with the idea of getting paid $240M by FSU and Clemson and then getting rights to all of their home game media broadcasts, i.e., getting rights to broadcast SEC and/or B1G games, for 13 years.

Well ... if the ACC SoS is keeping FSU out of the playoffs and losing them money ... is there cause there?

No.

Circumstances having nothing to do with ACC SOS -- namely, UGA losing to Bama and Travis getting hurt -- contributed as much or more to FSU being left out.

FSU chose to play their OOC schedule:

• LSU (SEC) - #9 FPI
• Florida (SEC) - #38 FPI
• Southern Miss (Sun Belt) - #119 FPI
• North Alabama (FCS) - not ranked in FPI

The ACC didn't control that.

It's unfortunate for FSU that Florida wasn't better this season... but that had nothing to do with the ACC.

None of that creates a basis of cause.

I can paint a different narrative than that. It isnt hard.

It doesn't matter. It's a legal issue. What matters is what matters in a legal proceeding over the ACC GOR.

 

[The Commish]

Why don't you tell me the last time a league had something like the ACC Grant of Rights in place and either voluntarily waived it in a buyout negotiation or had it defeated in court?

I'm pretty sure the ACC modeled, almost identically, their GOR after the B12, no?