Stroud on his way to having most passing yards best TD/INT highest average per pass and yards per game. No other QB has played like Stroud so far this season. Only reason he won’t win it is because he’s a rookie even though he’s clearly MVP.
Leading the league in passing yards really hasn't made much difference in garnering MVP consideration. Usually, it means you threw the ball a ton. Deshaun Watson, Jameis Winston, and even Matt Schaub led the league in passing yards. Drew Brees led the league in passing 7 times and never won MVP.
The Texans already have 5 losses. Based on the NFL's league-wide standings, Houston is the #13 team in the league and 8th in the AFC. The team would have to end up with a significantly better record and seeding for Stroud to have any chance at all.
Even if we say Houston runs the table and wins out (6 games left), they'd still have 5 losses. Since the league went to a 16-game schedule in 1978, only 4 QBs have won MVP with 5 losses . . . Matt Ryan in 2016, Rich Gannon in 2002, Brett Favre in 1995, and Brian Sipe in 1980. In those seasons, there really wasn't a dominant team record wise. (In 2016, the Patriots qualified but that was the year Brady was suspended.)
Stroud would need to have a record-breaking season to overcome that . . . like 5475/56. He's currently on pace for 5047/29. No doubt he's having a phenomenal rookie season, but I just don't see him getting serious consideration for MVP by the time the season's done. Draft Kings has him as the 8th highest player at +2000 (Hurts is leading at +140).