Ok time for prediction and some thoughts.....
- Notre Dame wins if....
- RIley Leonard has a turnover free game
- Riley Leonard actually has his first good game of this playoffs ; and by good I mean he's a clear reason why the Irish win if they do
- Notre Dame does not abandon the run too early and can make enough plays to keep the defense honest
- One TE/WR has to threaten the defense ; Faison, Evans, Greathouse, Collins....one of you must show up big
- Notre Dame defense holds serve early and weathers the initial storm ala Texas
- tOSU passing game is "contained" ; won't be stopped, just not completely obliterating the team
- Notre Dame wins the turnover battle; ideally +2 margin
- You hear the names Rubio and Bowen often during running plays as those involved in the tackles
- Gray holds enough serve against Egbuka/Tate & Moore can at least hold Smith to yards without scores
- Notre Dame proves to be the most physical team on the field
- What though the odds.... belief stays strong into the 4th quarter
- Notre Dame loses if....
- Howard has all day to throw
- tOSU schemes enough plays to put Smith 1:1 with Gray
- tOSU running game is working and forcing Shuler or Watts forward to support the run
- Bowen is asked to do too much man coverage on TE/WR over the middle
- Denbrock panics and abandons the run too early and starts chucking it all over the place
- Ohio State goes up big early ; ND offense not meant to play catch up
Tl;dr : I'm begrudgingly saying
Ohio State 27, Notre Dame 13
I see a bit of a redux of the Texas game. My hunch is tOSU will hit a few big plays and the game will likely hinge on that and turnovers. If ND can minimize the big play and force tOSU to drive the whole field, that's the way they can win this. Golden's defense is a bend, don't break and especially early. Don't be surprised if the first tOSU drive nets points and ND looks a bit on their heels. He seems to truly favor that sort of watch and learn approach in that first series each game. Against this team, that might just be spotting them too much given the offensive struggles to play from behind.
A key matchup to me is how Smith is handled. ND prefers to play man and when they do, I have to think they want Moore on Smith. If it's Gray....yikes. But I think they play it similar to Texas and double Smith with Watts over the top. If that's the case, Shuler is left as the lone safety either over the top on Egbuka/Tate or coming up to support the run. If Henderson/Judkins get going, ND has to be able to rely on Rubio and Bowen to stop as much as possible in the first two levels. If Shuler comes up, that leaves Gray 1:1 with Egbuka, Tate, or Gee Scott and those matchups all favor tOSU. I could see a game like Texas where a Tate or Egbuka is the player standing out because ND is attempting to take the run + Smith away.
ND has a puncher's chance. They can win this if they score early and quickly set a physical tone, punching tOSU in the mouth on both sides of the ball. If Love gets going and Price can be a good 1B to keep the pressure off of Riley's arm, ND has the grit to grind a close one out. I just feel like at this point there's too much talent on tOSU + ND injuries likely finally catch up to them. Hope I'm wrong.
