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2024 Free Agency Discussion (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter massraider
- Start date
Monty Burns
Footballguy
NICE !
Not to be a party pooper but from a pure fantasy angle the FA period looks like it will probably be exciting for the RB position and not much else.
Cousins and Schultz at QB and TE and not a whole lot else and they may not make it to UFA.
I see a WR list of top names that looks good right now with Tee, Pittman, Evans, Ridley and Marquise Brown. I just think Tee has zero shot of hitting UFA, Pittman not much better and the other 3 seem like 50/50. Some solid second tier type WR's like Gabe Davis and Bourne but not a lot of needle moving kind of WR's.
Cousins and Schultz at QB and TE and not a whole lot else and they may not make it to UFA.
I see a WR list of top names that looks good right now with Tee, Pittman, Evans, Ridley and Marquise Brown. I just think Tee has zero shot of hitting UFA, Pittman not much better and the other 3 seem like 50/50. Some solid second tier type WR's like Gabe Davis and Bourne but not a lot of needle moving kind of WR's.
massraider
Footballguy
There's a bunch of good DTs that are out there.
nightmare
Footballguy
No way the Pats are cutting Judon and Wise.
massraider
Footballguy
Feel free to read the article. That's not a list of who they expect to cut.
nightmare
Footballguy
I get that. This is just a pure financial look at who could be chopped.
Part of list is they are older and making more dollars versus the position value.
Jason Fitzgerald is very good at what he does, but this list is overkill.
massraider
Footballguy
Spotrac offseason financials.
This is NFC South, but there are links to every division. An offseason overview of how team might save cap room.
I linked NFC South, because the Saints.
This is NFC South, but there are links to every division. An offseason overview of how team might save cap room.
I linked NFC South, because the Saints.
zamboni
Footballguy
What a mess. Glad I held on to Kendre Miller in dynasty. Kamara could very well be gone and open up a much bigger opportunity for the kid.
massraider
Footballguy
They are gonna have to run it back with the same players for the most part.
We can bet almost all their draft picks will make the team.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
It's good to see the Bears only have Eddie Jackson and Cody Whitehair on that list. Once upon a time, Ryan Pace was so free with dead cap space.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Probably gonna be more splashy trades than FA signings
-OZ-
Footballguy
zamboni
Footballguy
Forgot about him - my bad
At QB, I'd be kinda shocked if Cousins wasn't a Viking in 2024. Don't know if any team is gonna pay big bucks for a mid 30s QB coming off a midseason Achilles tear, without him having time to get acclimated to the new system/supporting cast. A 1- or 2-year deal to stay in Minnesota makes a ton of sense, even if they potentially draft his replacement. Wilson should have little trouble finding a starting job, and Tannehill likely is a week 1 starter, perhaps (NE, ATL) as a bridge QB.
At RB, I think Barkley either gets tagged again (which I'm sure he'll be thrilled about) or signs a long term (3 years maybe?) deal. I do think Henry, Jacobs and Ekeler all hit the FA market. Henry in particular I see having a big market despite his age/miles. He's still a top-3 NFL RB. Pollard seems 50-50, depending on what he wants money wise. He's not getting tagged again, that's for sure. Be curious to see Swift's market, and I personally think AJ Dillon could be sneaky good in a different (more power run based) offense. I would think the Texans hang on to Singletary, the Ravens likely do the same with Gus, as I doubt either has a huge market anyway. Foreman and Moss, likely find RBBC roles, with Moss probably staying in Indy.
At WR, I think Higgins is a very likely Franchise Tag candidate. I think Pittman and Evans sign long term deals. Ridley and Hollywood I'd say are 50-50 to stay. If I recall there was some language in Ridley's trade, that if the gets extended the Falcons get a higher pick. I don't know if that applies to a Franchise Tag, but I could see the Jags just moving on anyway. Hollywood should probably be let go, but I could see the Cards wanting to keep some continuity. Shame he was never really healthy once Kyler came back. Curtis Samuel is an interesting 2nd tier option I think, and perhaps Darnell Mooney too. I expect Gabe Davis and KJ Osborn to be overpaid by WR desperate teams.
At TE, Schultz I think is either Franchise tagged or he's gone. His open market value is gonna be really high in a thin market, and they might not see Brevin Jordan as much of a downgrade. Hunter Henry is probably the only other FA TE I think is a sure thing to find a starting job. Harrison Bryant might be interesting without Njoku in his way, but I have no idea if he'll be viewed as a starter, or just what he is now.
ETA: I'd be really surprised if Kamara wasn't a Saint next year.
At RB, I think Barkley either gets tagged again (which I'm sure he'll be thrilled about) or signs a long term (3 years maybe?) deal. I do think Henry, Jacobs and Ekeler all hit the FA market. Henry in particular I see having a big market despite his age/miles. He's still a top-3 NFL RB. Pollard seems 50-50, depending on what he wants money wise. He's not getting tagged again, that's for sure. Be curious to see Swift's market, and I personally think AJ Dillon could be sneaky good in a different (more power run based) offense. I would think the Texans hang on to Singletary, the Ravens likely do the same with Gus, as I doubt either has a huge market anyway. Foreman and Moss, likely find RBBC roles, with Moss probably staying in Indy.
At WR, I think Higgins is a very likely Franchise Tag candidate. I think Pittman and Evans sign long term deals. Ridley and Hollywood I'd say are 50-50 to stay. If I recall there was some language in Ridley's trade, that if the gets extended the Falcons get a higher pick. I don't know if that applies to a Franchise Tag, but I could see the Jags just moving on anyway. Hollywood should probably be let go, but I could see the Cards wanting to keep some continuity. Shame he was never really healthy once Kyler came back. Curtis Samuel is an interesting 2nd tier option I think, and perhaps Darnell Mooney too. I expect Gabe Davis and KJ Osborn to be overpaid by WR desperate teams.
At TE, Schultz I think is either Franchise tagged or he's gone. His open market value is gonna be really high in a thin market, and they might not see Brevin Jordan as much of a downgrade. Hunter Henry is probably the only other FA TE I think is a sure thing to find a starting job. Harrison Bryant might be interesting without Njoku in his way, but I have no idea if he'll be viewed as a starter, or just what he is now.
ETA: I'd be really surprised if Kamara wasn't a Saint next year.
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Good breakdown, agree with a majority of it but not all of it.
Some things I see differently.
Henry's one I'm not in agreement with, a top 3 runner? Maybe but I'm in agreement as a top 3 RB. But I don't think he's looking at a major contract, something more along the lines of what Miles Sanders got last year, a little more on a one year deal . Just don't think the league is crazy about older one dimensional RB's and really the entire RB group in general did themselves no favors with almost every FA RB from last season underwhelming or busting. Only thing they got going for them is a weak rookie class.
I think Moss has a chance to sign as a starter or be a 1A/1B type, or the kind of RB that looks like a starter before the draft and I think his lack of high mileage will be a plus. Not sure what the Ravens will do at RB but it won't be a major investment, Gus as part of the RBBC on a dirt cheap contract is their MO. If Moss is cheap enough I think he'd be a major upgrade over what Gus gives them. I could not be more down on Dillon.
In my mind I don't even consider Higgins or PIttman as FA's. Evans is interesting though, I've heard he wants to be paid top of the market and I think he might at least reach UFA. I've heard Jags value Ridley and are interested in keeping him but I think he'll hit the open market as well, they got to much tied into Kirk and Engram and he's going to want to see what is available. I'm also not sure what happens if he's tagged instead of resigned but the conditional 5th round pick they gave for him has already moved to a third round pick. I don't think Osborn will get much, not much at all but a lot of people will be surprised at how much Gabe Davis is paid. This is not me endorsing him, just his skill set gets you paid.
I think Everett could be signed to be a starting TE for someone and agree any of them that can get free should be helped by a thin FA and draft class for the group.
For fantasy purposes just not an overly exciting looking FA group, mainly just the RB's.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
Good back and forth on the free agent crop @menobrown and @travdogg. I think you staked it out well and agree a good deal.
I’ll just add, I’m on Meno’s side about Henry’s quality at this stage and league wide interest. I can’t call him top 3, but if you put him in a committee he can help you win for sure. I’m browsing the cap space list and just don’t see many strong matches though. Maybe the Texans want to give Stroud more support? I could see that one and think it would work out very well should they be willing to give him a strong deal, but I’m not sure their appetite for RBs. Seems like something DeMeco would like though. The Titans have a lot space, it’s just speculation they’ll move on at this point, right? I get the reasons for it but could see them keeping him another year to keep fan interest high during their rebuild. I’m sure he’d rather play for a contender, just squinting to see who that might be and suitors aren’t jumping out at me other than Houston. Think he’d be perfect for Buffalo in a football sense but they are like $40M over the cap and doesn’t make sense from an asset allocation standpoint.
The other one I wanted to comment on is Ridley. If he gets out of Jacksonville (and they are in position to draft one of the WRs 4-6 so they may be fine with it) I think Kansas City makes a ton of sense. Pairing him with Rice would be a great compliment and probably the best they can do. And would help coax the max out of Kelce’s twilight years. That’s a really complimentary trio in my book. You could probably make the same argument for Hollywood but I like Ridley better for them.
Lastly, I think Jacobs is a lock to stay in Vegas if they do indeed hire Pierce as HC. I’m recalling comments he made after taking over about the importance of getting him 100 yard games…am I making that up? Quick search I don’t see it specifically but do see him talking about it being the Josh Jacobs show if healthy. That one just seems obvious to me but again, depends on Pierce getting HC job.
I’ll also add I expect Washington to put some real emphasis on getting a tight end upgrade- Schultz would make some sense there if he hits the market, although there are a lot of holes to fill. They will be splashy and should have $90-$100M in space once they make a couple roster moves. Not a great draft for TE, but they also need a ton of oline and back 7 help. And edge rusher. Will be interesting how to allocate cap space vs draft picks on that. I’m sure most know they have 5 top 100 picks in the draft to work with. #2 overall will be spent on QB but expect Peters to be active with their 2nds and 3rds. They’re not going to ignore TE anymore though and if Schultz is out there, he seems the best option by a good bit.
I’ll just add, I’m on Meno’s side about Henry’s quality at this stage and league wide interest. I can’t call him top 3, but if you put him in a committee he can help you win for sure. I’m browsing the cap space list and just don’t see many strong matches though. Maybe the Texans want to give Stroud more support? I could see that one and think it would work out very well should they be willing to give him a strong deal, but I’m not sure their appetite for RBs. Seems like something DeMeco would like though. The Titans have a lot space, it’s just speculation they’ll move on at this point, right? I get the reasons for it but could see them keeping him another year to keep fan interest high during their rebuild. I’m sure he’d rather play for a contender, just squinting to see who that might be and suitors aren’t jumping out at me other than Houston. Think he’d be perfect for Buffalo in a football sense but they are like $40M over the cap and doesn’t make sense from an asset allocation standpoint.
The other one I wanted to comment on is Ridley. If he gets out of Jacksonville (and they are in position to draft one of the WRs 4-6 so they may be fine with it) I think Kansas City makes a ton of sense. Pairing him with Rice would be a great compliment and probably the best they can do. And would help coax the max out of Kelce’s twilight years. That’s a really complimentary trio in my book. You could probably make the same argument for Hollywood but I like Ridley better for them.
Lastly, I think Jacobs is a lock to stay in Vegas if they do indeed hire Pierce as HC. I’m recalling comments he made after taking over about the importance of getting him 100 yard games…am I making that up? Quick search I don’t see it specifically but do see him talking about it being the Josh Jacobs show if healthy. That one just seems obvious to me but again, depends on Pierce getting HC job.
I’ll also add I expect Washington to put some real emphasis on getting a tight end upgrade- Schultz would make some sense there if he hits the market, although there are a lot of holes to fill. They will be splashy and should have $90-$100M in space once they make a couple roster moves. Not a great draft for TE, but they also need a ton of oline and back 7 help. And edge rusher. Will be interesting how to allocate cap space vs draft picks on that. I’m sure most know they have 5 top 100 picks in the draft to work with. #2 overall will be spent on QB but expect Peters to be active with their 2nds and 3rds. They’re not going to ignore TE anymore though and if Schultz is out there, he seems the best option by a good bit.
rockaction
Footballguy
It was the Josh Jacobs show until it wasn't. Then Jacobs got hurt, Zamir White stepped in, and Pierce said even if Jacobs came back that White had earned a bunch of reps. What this means for the Raiders re-signing Jacobs, I don't know.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
Thanks for that. Admittedly I stopped paying attention to the Raiders at least a month ago lol. Didn’t have any of their guys on any roster.
I’d still think he’d be back if they keep Pierce but, unlike Henry, I don’t think he cares about contending as much as the bag. All things equal I’m sure he wants to win, just again don’t see many matches unless Houston comes calling. But think Henry would fit better there.
-OZ-
Footballguy
It could be a lot of nothing but Henry’s comments recently about him being grateful for his time in Tennessee clearly point to him thinking he’s gone.
But then, he was almost traded during the season and wasn’t. So we’ll see.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
I'm a few hours out of Nashville. This entire area is college football land. It's crazy. Only NFL jerseys I see around here are Henry jerseys. I've been to Titans games. Most recently this Christmas eve. Literally 50% of the fans jerseys are Henry jerseys. He is the franchise. He puts people in the seats. I never thought they would move him. Ever. Then his speech to fans after final game. He's gone. Dude is so genuine and real. He spoke with his heart and I took that as a good bye. Sad really. Nothing but love for the big man.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Yep.
I’m less than two hours south of Nashville but we feel the same.
I was in Detroit when Barry retired. I don’t know that any player will be Barry ever again, but his retirement hurt most because we felt cheated by the lack of a farewell. Henry did better than that.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
Thanks for that, hadn’t heard about it. It will be really interesting to see play out. He sure looks to me like he has another really good season in him. I just wonder what his monetary expectations will be and who will step up to offer. Such a tough market for RBs, especially with contending teams and their wise approaches to the cap. It only takes one though.
Here’s the speech if anyone is curious: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2rwCNaLR4GE
Agreed, sure sounds like he’s moving on.
We got over 20% of the teams without a head coach right now so it's really hard trying to play the FA guessing game....not that it's easy playing it in March either.
But two places that always made sense to me for Henry is Dallas and Philly but both places I don't think he'd get a big deal, not close to one. But even saying that he's a different fit and for all I know those teams may not like it or put a better way not be the fit they want for their offense. But he makes sense for me on those teams because both staffs are entering huge years with both starting RB's entering FA. Again he's a totally different fit then those RB's he'd be repalcing, got no idea how those staffs view that fit. Not for nothing, or maybe it is, but he does live in Dallas in the off-season.
But two places that always made sense to me for Henry is Dallas and Philly but both places I don't think he'd get a big deal, not close to one. But even saying that he's a different fit and for all I know those teams may not like it or put a better way not be the fit they want for their offense. But he makes sense for me on those teams because both staffs are entering huge years with both starting RB's entering FA. Again he's a totally different fit then those RB's he'd be repalcing, got no idea how those staffs view that fit. Not for nothing, or maybe it is, but he does live in Dallas in the off-season.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Unlikely. Team has to be cap compliant in March and they can't save space on Kamara til June. Those in on Kendre Miller probably need to prepare to wait til 2025.
massraider
Footballguy
I worry about Miller's upside if Kamara does leave. There is not a lot of help coming to that team this off-season. A decent volume floor, no doubt.
I'll totally accept being the minority Dillon backer. I just really think GB couldn't have been a worse fit for his skill set. I think he'd be really interesting in a non-Shanahan style scheme, with a speed compliment. Like a Brandon Jacobs type role.
I think Henry gets over 10 million. I don't think he signs a long-term deal, but I think like, 2/22 is a fair over/under. I expect him to get more than anyone other than Barkley for 2024. He was so much better than his numbers this season (I think Spears was too and is an NFL starter in his own right) and I think he brings a "change how the defense plays your offense" that almost no other RBs bring.
I was thinking a spot that makes a lot of sense for Ridley if he leaves the Jags is Carolina. They've made no secret of wanting a WR badly and have no 1st rounder.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I wouldn’t put much into Dillon if I were you. He may be a drop in dynasty leagues this May.
zamboni
Footballguy
After last offseason's acrimony with his tagging, I was sure that Barkley would walk this coming offseason no matter what and that the Giants would gladly let him test the free agent waters. Now I'm not so sure given the lack of a decent incumbent on the roster and what seems to be a weakish rookie crop (with the team having so many other pressing needs).
Perhaps Saquon finally realizes that the market for RBs is what it is, and given that he's a year older with another year of workload, they come together for a short 2 year deal with an AAV slightly above the tag amount. Could make both sides happy as they try to run it back again with an improved roster.
rockaction
Footballguy
Man, I have so many guys on that list. My championship team got ****ty in a hurry, didn't it? Good work, rock.
Time to reconstruct and adapt, I guess. We shall see what I can do with this.
Time to reconstruct and adapt, I guess. We shall see what I can do with this.
Balco
Footballguy
I have watched a ton of Dillon - he has really embraced the city, seems like a really good dude. He is not a good running back. Any team that gives him a starting job or 35-40% of carries would be making a huge mistake.
These are actually the two spots I had been thinking make the most sense for him.
Carolina would ideally like to get younger but good young WR's don't usually make it to FA and I don't see any making it this year. With KC it's going to be about money. Ridley just finished his rookie contract and will want a big payday, I thnk he'll be able to find a better contract in other places if that's his goal.
Football Jones
Footballguy
I agree with much of the sentiment in here.
I believe Higgins is a lock to be franchised. KC has to be looking at Evans & Ridley. It makes too much sense. I hadn't previously thought of it, but Ridley to Carolina is interesting. I think Henry moving on from the Titans is a done deal. The Cowboys would be good for both parties, IMO. You'd think Henry has to be looking at a contender & a team with a good OL. He'd give them a much needed physical presence to complement their air attack. I'm guessing several teams will be interested in his services.
Should be a fun offseason.
I believe Higgins is a lock to be franchised. KC has to be looking at Evans & Ridley. It makes too much sense. I hadn't previously thought of it, but Ridley to Carolina is interesting. I think Henry moving on from the Titans is a done deal. The Cowboys would be good for both parties, IMO. You'd think Henry has to be looking at a contender & a team with a good OL. He'd give them a much needed physical presence to complement their air attack. I'm guessing several teams will be interested in his services.
Should be a fun offseason.
Agree on Higgins being franchised and Pittman resigning. I think Cousins resigns with MN as well. I think its a lock Ridley is gone from the Jags, he wasn’t a good fit and this is his only opportunity to cash-in. I think he goes to the highest bidder so Carolina probably makes sense and his fantasy value probably drops considerably. Lots of volume maybe but that teams a mess. Agree Evans is probably 50/50 he may resign and retire a Buc but I wish he would leave for somewhere like a KC for the fantasy fun (plus that would bring Godwin back to relevance.) Marquis could sign somewhere interesting. I think Hou lets Noah Brown and Schultz go opening up a fantasy hole there for a 3rd pass catcher. Also wondering if Denver trades one of Sutton or Jeudy (more likely.)
Very interested in the RB’s, Barkley stays IMO as I think the Giants are going to make a big move for a QB in the draft. Jacobs & Pollard resign too IMO. Very interested to see where Henry, Ekeler & Swift land. I could see Houston landing an upgrade at RB, Singletary had a few good games but also really struggled at times. Pierce unfortunately is not a good fit for Slowik’s system and they really need an upgrade and to establish a consistent running game.
Very interested in the RB’s, Barkley stays IMO as I think the Giants are going to make a big move for a QB in the draft. Jacobs & Pollard resign too IMO. Very interested to see where Henry, Ekeler & Swift land. I could see Houston landing an upgrade at RB, Singletary had a few good games but also really struggled at times. Pierce unfortunately is not a good fit for Slowik’s system and they really need an upgrade and to establish a consistent running game.
I've heard some talk that he wants a boatload of money, top of the market kind of stuff. If that happens anywhere I don't think it will be KC. It's not even about managing the cap situation that makes it not doable it's that Mahomes has not been maximizing every single dollar and Kelce's been underpaid for years, at least before this season. I think it would be a perceived slap in the face for those two to take less to help the team only to turn around and give max dollars to Evans. I think this was some of the reasoning behind trading Tyreek, he was looking to maximize his pay and paying him top dollar would probably have gone over better since he was one of their own. Paying an outside FA a boatload more then Kelce ever made in a season, I don't think that would fly so well.
I'd be higher on him then if he returned to Jax.
You sound like a man convinced they will taking the third best* QB in the draft over Marvin or moving back.
*ETA to add I should not have said the third "best" QB in the draft, just the third one chosen.
What is the point of taking an under market contract if not for the team to spend on other positions of need? I would guess after this year of struggling to find a WR to help (although Rice seems to be fitting a need and getting better) getting a guy like Evans (a perfect fit for their needs) would be the exact type of max money guy they would think is worth the money.....provided they don't overextend and it is a short term big hit.
You are not getting the point, I'll just move on.
Boston
Footballguy
Right now I am, especially after Mayo's press conference...I also think they want the post-BB transition to go as smooth as possible and I don't think they want to have Mayo coach a team that has no chance his first year due to a hole at the QB position...that being said that could obviously change if they scout the big 3 and they really don't like the one that falls to them at #3...if that happened then things get real interesting because I am 99.9% certain they will have a new starting QB in 2024 and I don't know what their plan B would be if it is not one of those rookies (with a veteran as well...which they definitely need in the QB room)...they have a ton of holes (the whole offense is a hole) and are really not in a position to trade up to #1 or #2 (they have no extra picks)...I guess if they are sold on someone like Nix, Penix or JJM they could grab Harrison and figure out a way to get one of them (or trade down...if that happens the fanbase may implode)...as of now I do think they go with one of the big 3, finally get the QB position squared away post-Brady then move forward with putting him in a position to develop and succeed.
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Football Jones
Footballguy
Yeah, that could be an issue. Ridley might be a better fit as far as money.
How hard they go after a WR might depend on how this season shakes out.
You made one post about it. I gave a differing viewpoint. What was the point you were trying to make?
I agree, staying put would probably be worse, he just was not a good fit for their offense. As talked about in his thread, Jax had him mostly running the wrong kind of routes for his skillset IMO. Thinking more Carolina might not be too bad, Thielen managed some big games there in the first half of the season before defenses started focusing on him. Ridley might be PPR gold in the same environment although Thielen remains for another season.
Could also see Ridley signing somewhere like Chicago. Tons of cap space, need another WR. If they decide they will go QB at #1, adding a FA WR would help a lot and they could use the #9 pick on defense.
LawFitz
Footballguy
They will need to do a ton of cap juggling this offseason. If part of that is using the June 1 designation to cut a guy like Kamara, they could use the relief that comes in June to sign their rookie class.
That said, I read an article a few weeks ago that showed how they could kick the can down the road one more time this offseason to give Carr and Kamara another run at it next year, while gutting other parts, including several starting OL.
Balco
Footballguy
I don’t understand the thought of kicking the can down the road - the Saints aren’t going anywhere as constructed. Just rip the band aid off. Take the cap hits the next couple of years by purging the bad contracts and then go from there.
If they were a team like the Ravens, 49ers, or Chiefs, kicking the can down the road makes complete sense.
