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2025 Detroit Lions: 3-1 Lions roll over Browns (31 Viewers)

Anderson / Carter / Wilson

I'm convinced at least part of the reason this draft class is viewed as weak overall is we now have far greater widespread examination of every prospect than ever before. There are way more podcasts and YouTube channels dissecting every aspect of their skills. What do film guys/draftniks typically focus on? What they can't do.

I can make a case for why all 259 draft picks won't succeed (or will at least disappoint), including these 3.
  • You think Tyree is all that? Go watch his A&M tape. He played like a little puppy getting kicked around by SEC big dogs. Has a very limited set of pass rush technique, low produciton.
  • You think Will Anderson is the top player in the draft? You realize he's maxed out? You think he'll get better coaching or nutrition in the pros veruss what he's benefited from the last 3 years of being at the best football program in the country? You know he can't play 4i very well, right? You know his production declined when he put on weight, right?
  • You think red flags aside Jalen Carter is the best IDL prospect in a decade? We're not even sure he likes the game, he's so gassed he only plays 30 percent of snaps. How do you motivate a guy who doesn't love ball? Worst of all he drives the same vehicle (Trackhawk) as Jamo.

Seriously, it's absurd. BB is right, don't tell me what a guy can't do, show me what he can do. If he did it once I can make that repeatable through teaching and I can minimize his weakness is the way we scheme his usage.

Drafts are about acquiring flavors. We're not going to be a good defense bc of one guy. We're going to have a great DL rotation that takes advantage of versatility. We're going to disguise fronts and coverages bc we have some awesome chess pieces who can fulfill different roles. Any contributors we get in the next few days are just adding pieces to an already solid rosters.
 
I will be disappointed if we leave this draft without Witherspoon or DJ Turner, who imo are the best to cover corners.
I wanted Sauce last year but I don’t think Witherspoon is Sauce level good. Doesn’t haven’t the length, size or athleticism. Can he play that physical in the NFL? His coverage grade was excellent which is why I’ve followed @BobbyLayne here and moved Witherspoon ahead of Gonzalez. That said, I worry about the level of completion he earned those grades against.
 
I will be disappointed if we leave this draft without Witherspoon or DJ Turner, who imo are the best to cover corners.
I wanted Sauce last year but I don’t think Witherspoon is Sauce level good. Doesn’t haven’t the length, size or athleticism. Can he play that physical in the NFL? His coverage grade was excellent which is why I’ve followed @BobbyLayne here and moved Witherspoon ahead of Gonzalez. That said, I worry about the level of completion he earned those grades against.

Witherspoon got a break by not playing OSU and PSU last year, so yeah his numbers are inflated. I think we can get a similar level of play from Turner later in the draft, but he ranges from late first to third. I like Turner better because he is faster and has off the chart twitch. Certainly you give up physicality with either (Turner slightly more) . Turner is a sleeper who will go earlier than most think. 4.26 speed does not grow on trees, and combined with skill is hard to beat.
 
DJ Turner is fast, but he is not a god cover corner. At all. Worst man coverage grade in his own backfield (58.9), 4 TDs and 105.9 (NFL) passer rating allowed. Gets easily bounced by big receiver gets, allows gobs of separation bc of it. Anticipatory breaks in zone coverage are non-existent.

Cory Trice Jr is a round 3 or 4 B1G corner they’ve been looking at closely. 6’3” 205, 4.47, phenomenal tackler. Gave up a 51.3 NFL passer rating and virtually no YAC. He’s a bully.
 
my nightmare scenario start (any order):
  1. Young
  2. Stroud
  3. Anderson
  4. Carter
  5. Witherspoon (for others....maybe most Lions fans...this will be Wilson)
Where to go...next highest draft grades are:
  • T Skoronski
  • QB Levis
  • RB Bijan
  • WR JSN
  • TE Kincaid
  • QB Richardson
  • CB Gonzalez
  • ED Nolan Smith
  • .....

  • Tyree Wilson (widely projected to go Top 10 maybe even Top 5, but that's a massive projection....his actual draft grade is back end 1st, with tremendous upside)

In our draft party drinking game rules, one of my buddies added "BobbyLayne has to do a shot of Jose Cuervo if the Cardinals take a T at 3"

Wives are coming here for game night, I'm going over to my neighbors to watch with a couple other friends (Jets, Pats an Eagles fans)
 
I hate to say it but I'd be disappointed if we take a corner. Witherspoon may well be the best player available and a "Holmes/Campbell" kind of guy, but it feels low impact and not a big gain for our outlook next year. A top 6 pick is so valuable it would suck to not get a high-impact star. I'm sure I would come around. In the moment I'd feel let down.

My preference:

Anderson / Carter / Wilson / Trade back / Richardson.

I've been out on Stroud from the beginning and don't have a good feel for Levis. Richardson would ignite controversy and isn't likely to happen but I'm okay with taking a big swing there.
I agree, a corner now doesn't seem like the best approach, especially with this draft supposedly strong in CBs.
 
my nightmare scenario start (any order):
  1. Young
  2. Stroud
  3. Anderson
  4. Carter
  5. Witherspoon (for others....maybe most Lions fans...this will be Wilson)
Where to go...next highest draft grades are:
  • T Skoronski
  • QB Levis
  • RB Bijan
  • WR JSN
  • TE Kincaid
  • QB Richardson
  • CB Gonzalez
  • ED Nolan Smith
  • .....

  • Tyree Wilson (widely projected to go Top 10 maybe even Top 5, but that's a massive projection....his actual draft grade is back end 1st, with tremendous upside)

In our draft party drinking game rules, one of my buddies added "BobbyLayne has to do a shot of Jose Cuervo if the Cardinals take a T at 3"

Wives are coming here for game night, I'm going over to my neighbors to watch with a couple other friends (Jets, Pats an Eagles fans)
1. QB, if you like one of Richardson or Levis
2. Take calls for a trade-back for one of the QBs
3. Gonzales or Wilson
 
DJ Turner is fast, but he is not a god cover corner. At all. Worst man coverage grade in his own backfield (58.9), 4 TDs and 105.9 (NFL) passer rating allowed. Gets easily bounced by big receiver gets, allows gobs of separation bc of it. Anticipatory breaks in zone coverage are non-existent.

Cory Trice Jr is a round 3 or 4 B1G corner they’ve been looking at closely. 6’3” 205, 4.47, phenomenal tackler. Gave up a 51.3 NFL passer rating and virtually no YAC. He’s a bully.
I am not sure where those numbers come from, but they are grossly different than what I have seen in a half-dozen places. As a sophomore, PFF ranked DJ as the top press coverage guy tied with McCreary. Chris Simm said he had the best coverage skills in this draft. DraftBuzz listed his QB rating when targetted of just 54.8 as a sophmore and 65.5 as a junior. Described hid sophomore numbers as elite.

Pro Football Network says:

" In man coverage, Turner has incredibly fast feet, fluid hips, and impressive discipline for his technique. He frequently uses feet first and has the twitchy, high-speed athleticism in close quarters to keep wide receivers in front of him at all times. He also has the recovery speed to make up ground whenever he needs to."

Draft Network says:

" Turner has shown the ability to run with nearly every wide receiver he has faced this season. One of the best terms to describe his game is “sticky.” On tape, he is routinely spotted in the hip pocket of opposing receivers. The ability to blanket talented receivers and remain in phase on most reps cannot be undervalued. An ultimate competitor, Turner plays the ball and the receiver’s hands to force pass breakups."
 
Here goes nothing

I think they could go Nolan Smith and Steve Avila with their first rounders. Possible either player would be available after a trade back. Though I can see both being drafted without a trade back. Probably more so with Avila with the 18th. A trade back regarding Nolan Smith would likely be just a few spots.

Avila shouldn’t be there when their second round picks come around.

Expect them to go DT in the second. CB and WR in second or third. Lions will also add Swift’s successor, a good blocking TE and a developmental QB.
 
DJ Turner is fast, but he is not a god cover corner. At all. Worst man coverage grade in his own backfield (58.9), 4 TDs and 105.9 (NFL) passer rating allowed. Gets easily bounced by big receiver gets, allows gobs of separation bc of it. Anticipatory breaks in zone coverage are non-existent.

Cory Trice Jr is a round 3 or 4 B1G corner they’ve been looking at closely. 6’3” 205, 4.47, phenomenal tackler. Gave up a 51.3 NFL passer rating and virtually no YAC. He’s a bully.
I am not sure where those numbers come from, but they are grossly different than what I have seen in a half-dozen places. As a sophomore, PFF ranked DJ as the top press coverage guy tied with McCreary. Chris Simm said he had the best coverage skills in this draft. DraftBuzz listed his QB rating when targetted of just 54.8 as a sophmore and 65.5 as a junior. Described hid sophomore numbers as elite.

Pro Football Network says:

" In man coverage, Turner has incredibly fast feet, fluid hips, and impressive discipline for his technique. He frequently uses feet first and has the twitchy, high-speed athleticism in close quarters to keep wide receivers in front of him at all times. He also has the recovery speed to make up ground whenever he needs to."

Draft Network says:

" Turner has shown the ability to run with nearly every wide receiver he has faced this season. One of the best terms to describe his game is “sticky.” On tape, he is routinely spotted in the hip pocket of opposing receivers. The ability to blanket talented receivers and remain in phase on most reps cannot be undervalued. An ultimate competitor, Turner plays the ball and the receiver’s hands to force pass breakups."
cool story bro

I was looking at the Michigan DBs broken out by coverage scheme. His overall coverage grade was better. It's worth noting his run defense grade improved this year. He's still developing.

He's a good athlete, he'll be a good fit in somebody's backfield. There are just other bigger CBs that I like better, and amongst smaller Corners he's not as sticky as a lot of other guys I've been studying.

Chris Simms? Oh....OK.

PFF Draft guide
After not playing his first two years at Michigan, Turner broke out in Year 3 for the Wolverines. Leader of the 5 secondary, Turner is one of the many reasons why Michigan defense thrived the past two years. In 2021, he posted an 83.3 coverage grade and held his opponents to only 267 yards on 59 targets. Turner carried this same success over to 2022, earning another great 76.2 coverage grade. We know how good he is against the pass, but we finally saw him improve against the run this season, increasing his 48.6 run-defense grade to 76.1 in his final season

5'11" 178
30.75" arms

Turner truly looks like an all-time testing athlete at the position. That's obviously a good thing. He's a unique athlete who has all the traits you could want. He needs to pair with a DB coach that will light a fire within him.

WHERE HE WINS
Turner is a lab built athlete for the corner position. He's basically Tyreek Hill flipped to the other side of the ball from a testing perspective. That gives him a lot of leeway, especially downfield.
WHAT'S HIS ROLE - Man Corner
Turner has makeup skills for days, which is what you want in man-heavy schemes. If you're playing matchups, Turner can easily cover the smaller speed guys throughout the league.
WHERE HE CAN IMPROVE
The Killer instinct that the Jaire Alexanders an Jalen Ramseys of the world have is not present in Turner's tape. He still looks like an athlete who was just dropped in at corner than a true enforcer on the outside.
PROS
  • As high-end an athlete as you'll see in the draft at corner. It's all there.
  • Fluid in everything he does. Can flip hips and change directions on whim.
  • Patient in press and easy mirror-ability on quick game routes - 414 career press snaps.
CONS
  • Bounced around by big receivers. Gave up tons of separation on breaks because of it.
  • Timid at the catch point. Doesn't look confident on when to attack.
  • Anticipatory breaks in zone coverage almost non-existent on tape
PFF Grade 77.4 overall 76.2 coverage grade 76.1

That (sort of mirrors what I hear from film guys I respect like Brett Kolmann and Marcus Wittman. Good player, but won't be a great fit for everyone.

Very consistent player. No games in the 80s or 90s, also didn't have any bad sub-55 games. Week in week out he was high 60s to mid 70s, only games below 60 were Iowa and Ohio State.
 
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Here goes nothing

I think they could go Nolan Smith and Steve Avila with their first rounders. Possible either player would be available after a trade back. Though I can see both being drafted without a trade back. Probably more so with Avila with the 18th. A trade back regarding Nolan Smith would likely be just a few spots.

Avila shouldn’t be there when their second round picks come around.

Expect them to go DT in the second. CB and WR in second or third. Lions will also add Swift’s successor, a good blocking TE and a developmental QB.

Just depends on runs. Like we’ll probably have more Edge than tackles early? Then it reverses Teams won’t pivot too much to lower value or weaker in this class positions until we get to 6-8 gone. Love these two players, we could get super lucky and get Smith at 18 and Avila 48. Your strategy takes out the uncertainty, go up and get your guys.
Seems like we just got rid of a physical corner who could tackle.

Your advocating for a traits guy. I’m saying I prefer developed skills that are pro ready. Athletic traits dudes have higher potential upside, it’s just different flavors brother man.
 
The real stuff doesn't happen to day 3:

Which team will draft Jake Moody?

Lions +450
Cowboys +500
Titans +600
Packers (boo) +600
Bucs +700
49ers +700
Rams +750
Bears (also boo) +850

All others are +1000 or more

We’ve kept the wrong kicker every year. It’s the only area I don’t trust Brad & Dan to make the right evaluation lol.

Freaking kickers….
You don’t love it when we elect to kick a 52 yard Fg with Badgley?
 
The real stuff doesn't happen to day 3:

Which team will draft Jake Moody?

Lions +450
Cowboys +500
Titans +600
Packers (boo) +600
Bucs +700
49ers +700
Rams +750
Bears (also boo) +850

All others are +1000 or more

We’ve kept the wrong kicker every year. It’s the only area I don’t trust Brad & Dan to make the right evaluation lol.

Freaking kickers….
Which is so weird because one of the only things prior Lions teams were good at was having excellent kickers Murray, Hanson, Prater et al.
 
Three scenarios for 1.06, how would you feel about each:

  1. 2 QBs + both blue chip DL + Witherspoon go top 5; Lions are left with Tyree Wilson, Gonzalez, Levis and AR. Is trading back the best option? Presume fair value achieved.
  2. 2 QBs + both Top CBs + Carter go top 5; we sprint to the podium to pick Will Anderson 10 out of 10 times, right?
  3. 3 QBs + Anderson + Skoronski go top 5; Lions may choose either Witherspoon or Gonzalez, or Jalen Carter, or Tyree Wilson, or mayonnaise-in-his-coffee. Brad takes Bijan.
4. 3QBs + Anderson....and
 
Three scenarios for 1.06, how would you feel about each:

  1. 2 QBs + both blue chip DL + Witherspoon go top 5; Lions are left with Tyree Wilson, Gonzalez, Levis and AR. Is trading back the best option? Presume fair value achieved.
  2. 2 QBs + both Top CBs + Carter go top 5; we sprint to the podium to pick Will Anderson 10 out of 10 times, right?
  3. 3 QBs + Anderson + Skoronski go top 5; Lions may choose either Witherspoon or Gonzalez, or Jalen Carter, or Tyree Wilson, or mayonnaise-in-his-coffee. Brad takes Bijan.
4. 3QBs + Anderson....and
Seattle just screwed us
 

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