2025 RB Lotto Ticket Rankings (4 Viewers)

[Hartliner]

And we're back!
In 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 we had a thread that folks seemed to find valuable so I am starting another version for 2025 - it's a living, ongoing list of potential King Makers at RB - the idea is to be PREEMPTIVE on RBs most likely sitting on the Waiver Wire or last rounds of draft (depending upon league size, sharks or guppies, etc.). The definition of this thread is generally re-draft.

To paraphrase @TZMarkie from 2016: "This is for re-draft and we are looking for the ones with the best combination of availability, upside and possibility of a big workload. That combination would likely give the average owner the best chance at hitting the "lottery ticket RB" that could change an owners season...The point is, regardless of however you see it, and whatever your league preference and/or breakdown may be, in most cases a typical owner (think redraft with 5-7 bench spots) will only be able to truly "take a shot" on one or two of these guys".

To paraphrase @Interseptopus from 2019: "A lotto ticket, to me, costs almost nothing, and is easily expendable for the next lotto ticket, but has potential to win you your season. ... Lotto tickets, in my mind, are easily cut from one week to the next."

Editor note about the spirit of this list: While TZMarkie and Interseptopus defined "what a LOTTO is" opinions and league sizes vary. This list is meant to be a cast a wide net review as a tool to make your own judgement calls. Then make your own rankings. Please share if you're willing. Some RBs are included in the event of a very shallow league. Others are included in case a frustrated owner drops him during a bye week crunch. Again, wide net.

This all above ^ is a quote pulled from @daylight too

CANDIDATES for the Season Changing – KingMaker List - by division
I'll Bold the Kingmakers and Green the better of the likely RBBC
As of Tuesday Aug 19th.

Top 5 Possible KingMakers ranked(I added more since the first couple are duh... too easy):
1. David Montgomery, 2. Zach Charbonet, 3. Jordan Mason, 4. Tyler Allgeier, 5.Braelon Allen, 6. Ray Davis , 7. Jaylen Wright, 8. Keaton Mitchell

AFC East

• BUF
  • Ray Davis 3 down potential. BUF as a whole is pegged to trend down offensively but still likely to be top half offense and you do have Josh Allen to vulture TDs. If James Cook gets injured, I believe they will instantly give him RB2 status and he might even have some value as a flex w/o injury.
• MIA
  • Jaylen Wright Offense predicts to be in top 10. He also has Achane w/ a slight calf injury. RB1 if injury happens but also Flex appeal.
  • Ollie Gordon short yardage goal line situations @FarFromHome
• NEP
  • RBBC is here, w/ a rookie and injured starter its hard to see this being a bellcow situation anyone would want. Antonio Gibson has done it in the past but this offense doesn't seem to be productive enough, I would just monitor.
• NYJ
  • Braelon Allen a must draft if you get Breece and also a solid high upside pick if you don't have Breece.

AFC North

• BAL
  • Keaton Mitchell he is the glass cannon, could be Devon Achane lite. But it didn't happen last year so I see him a bit cheaper however speed dial and/or using a last pick is on the table.
• CIN
  • Tahj Brooks, is intriguing. but I feel it would be RBBC and I don't see myself ever drafting Tahj Brooks. but monitor.
• CLE
  • Quinshon Judkins, Jerome Ford is not the best RB but I honestly think this is a RBBC as well and Browns O is not something you need to have backups for.
  • Dylan Sampson COP @Gally
• PIT
  • Kaleb Johnson 3 down potential but its one of those rookie scenarios. He's also been likened to Todd Gurley and David Johnson in terms of size and potential.

AFC South

• HOU
  • Nick Chubb and Dameon Pierce so alluring but I am just fading the backfield. I would just monitor too many different ways it can go down in this aging backfield. But I can't quit Chubb I would love to see a swan song year out of em.
  • Woody Marks @socrates
• IND
  • DJ Giddens seems like best handcuff to JT, I don't think others are intrigued to draft them so just worth a monitor
• JAC
  • Bhayshul Tuten I will be monitoring since there are 2 others ahead of him and they should be atm.
• TEN
  • Tyjae Spears has an injury and Tony Pollard is looking to benefit early on, but I would watch and see if Pollard can withstand the workload it could tip back and forth as Spears gets healthy.

AFC West

• DEN
  • Crowded RBBC RJ Harvey potential comps include Ray Rice and even Kenneth Walker but where you draft them its hardly a lotto pick I most likely won't get them. Jaleel Mclaughlin is worth a monitor when/if 1 of the first 2 RBs get injured.
• KCC
  • Kareem Hunt would be serviceable flex at best and I am eyeing Elijah Mitchell as the darkhorse RB that may actually matter down the stretch Monitor this backfield.
• LVR
  • Zamir White and Raheem Mostert is pretty interesting RBBC if the starter goes down but the O is awful. Monitor only and even then sorry if you bank on these guys being relevant that would be terrible.
• LAC
  • Ceremoniously Najee the starter isn't even seen as the starter atm due to injury so the RBBC is consolidated here. I think the Rookie holds off the others and if Najee is cheap get them.

NFC East

• DAL
  • Jaydon Blue - Good pick for 2nd half surge? Maybe ultimately should let someone else draft and then trade into the season. I think its a monitor situation
• NYG
  • Cam Skattebo - monitor I think they would definitely be the better of the RBBC w/ Singletary in the mix tho.
• PHI
  • Will Shipley - the better bet, but still only monitor.
• WAS
  • Chris Rodriguez Jr. seems to be a JAG.
  • Jacory Croskey-Merritt - pfft I'd be a fool to not be taken in by the raw potential here. I think you need to decide to make em your first reserve RB at the highest. 8-9 rd for me atm.

NFC North

• CHI
  • Roschon Johnson - JAG status?
  • Kyle Monangai would be better in the eventual RBBC as a flex RB2 at best
• DET
  • David Montgomery - Not breaking news, but he would be a RB1 if Gibbs goes down.
• GBP
  • MarShawn Lloyd speed dial worthy
  • Emanuel Wilson feels like JAG.
• MIN
  • Jordan Mason - Definitely will be drafted and has clear backup spot.

NFC South

• ATL
  • Tyler Allgeier- Must Draft. He has great situation if Bijan were to go down. Usually cheap for some reason
• CAR
  • Rico Dowdle? What a bad RB room
• NO
  • Kendre Miller always looming but the RBBC threat here is real since he doesn't pass catch
• TBB
  • Raachad White handcuff funny how they 180'd from 1 year ago
  • Sean Tucker @Runkle

NFC West

• ARI
  • Trey Benson- James Conner handcuff. Offense could definitely surprise.
• LAR
  • Blake Corum- must monitor, if healthy then look out!
• SF
  • Isacc Guerendo- the system is strong
• SEA
  • Zach Charbonnet- I like him a lot again.

16 in total, I'm sure there are more. Feel free to shout out anyone missed or wanting to endorse. I feel good about who is highlighted enough to at least monitor closely and draft.

 

[Desert_Power]

Jaylen Wright Offense predicts to be in top 10. He also has Achane w/ a slight calf injury. RB1 if injury happens but also Flex appeal.

Anyone predicting that offense to be in the top 10 is in for a rough fantasy season.

 

[djjosee]

Welcome back and

 

[FarFromHome]

Give me Ollie Gordon over Wright all day.

 

[Mr.Blonde]

This was a valuable thread last year. Thanks for starting it up again for 2025.

 

[RaidersAreOne]

I think Jaylen Wright may be on the outside looking in at RB2 with Ollie Gordon II looking as good as he has.

 

[SanDawg]

• NEP
  • RBBC is here, w/ a rookie and injured starter its hard to see this being a bellcow situation anyone would want. Antonio Gibson has done it in the past but this offense doesn't seem to be productive enough, I would just monitor.

Not sure I agree with "this offense doesn't seem to be productive enough" statement. Diggs and Henderson can take this team to the next level with another year of experience for Maye. Henderson the real deal and Stephenson would be a fine lottery ticket. Or vice versa.

 

[Hartliner]

Give me Ollie Gordon over Wright all day.

Let's add em! Thanks!

 

[Boston]

Agree with others that Ollie Gordon needs to be mentioned here…Woody Marks will probably by more of a COP RB but he should be on this list…I don’t see Mason as a backup…that is going to be an RBBC…definitely a long shot but Mafah with Dallas is worth at least a mention.

 

[Chaka]

 

[socrates]

Nicely done @Hartliner I will use your format and add a few names

AFC East

• BUF
  • I agree with @Hartliner 's Ray Davis take
• MIA
  • Jaylen Wright or Ollie Gordon? Either has some Lotto Ticket qualities
• NEP
  • I had high hopes for Lan Larison, but he ended up on IR. No real Lotto Ticket to be found in New England
• NYJ
  • Braelon Allen is making a lot of noise and may cut into Hall's workload. If Breece Hall is traded or injured, I want Allen

AFC North

• BAL
  • Keaton Mitchell is now healthy; he is a great Lottery Ticket.
• CIN
  • Tahj Brooks is the reserve to monitor
• CLE
  • The backup with Lotto Ticket qualities I like here is Dylan Sampson
• PIT
  • Kenneth Gainwell could get some work as the team's 3rd down option, but no real Lotto Ticket

AFC South

• HOU
  • Dameon Pierce and Woody Marks could push Chubb, but still uncertainty on Mixon's status. Both Marks and Pierce intrigue me.
• IND
  • DJ Giddens is the one to watch here
• JAC
  • This could be a 3-headed RBBC. Bhayshul Tuten is very intriguing, but unless something happens with either Bigsby or Etienne, I may avoid this, unless I can grab Tuten on the cheap.
• TEN
  • No Lotto Ticket to speak of

AFC West

• DEN
  • The Broncos have some very talented depth behind Dobbins and Harvey. McLaughlin, Badie and Estime all have some Lotto Ticket intrigue, but Denver won't be able to hold onto that many backs
• KCC
  • The Lottery Ticket may be Brashard Smith, but Elijah Mitchell is also very intriguing
• LVR
  • meh
• LAC
  • Kimani Vidal?

NFC East

• DAL
  • Jaydon Blue?
• NYG
  • Cam Skattebo may become a large part of the backfield as the season goes on
• PHI
  • Will Shipley is the handcuff to own
• WAS
  • JCM is potentially the starter. Chris Rodriguez looked pretty darn good last night

NFC North

• CHI
  • Kyle Monangai is intriguing
• DET
  • No real Lotto Ticket, unless Montgomery qualifies
• GBP
  • Amar Johnson? MarShawn Lloyd cannot seem to stay healthy
• MIN
  • Mason may not qualify, but he will cut into Aaron Jones' workload

NFC South

• ATL
  • Tyler Allgeier is a great handcuff. Not sure he qualifies as a Lotto Ticket, but I want him.
• CAR
  • I was hoping it might be Trevor Etienne, but Rico Dowdle is the top reserve here and probably keeps Etienne off the field
• NO
  • Devin Neal lost valuable time with a sore hammy, but I am still targeting him as the Lotto Ticket
• TBB
  • Sean Tucker? Probably no real Lotto Ticket with Irving and White entrenched

NFC West

• ARI
  • Trey Benson is the backup to own
• LAR
  • Jarquez Hunter is interesting
• SF
  • Jordan James intrigues me
• SEA
  • I like George Holani and Damien Martinez, but neither may see the field with Walker and Charbonnet entrenched as 1-2

 

[Lansdowne]

My favorite thread every year

 

[Mister CIA]

I have eyes on 2025 undrafted RB (Mich St) Nathan Carter, ATL. 5"10, 202, and fast - 4.37 40 on pro day.

 

[Runkle]

TBB--I think White is the RB2 and will get carries regardless, but, if something happened to Irving, White stays put and Tucker leapfrogs him to the RB1.

 

[Desert_Power]

Give me Ollie Gordon over Wright all day.

I kinda agree. He looks really good in preseason. If anyone is going to take the Mostert red zone role it would be him.

Similar feeling to Monangai in Chicago. Although also low on that offense.

 

[Pickle Rody]

@Hartliner Very nice list. Thank you.

black dot

 

[Gally]

CLE

• Quinshon Judkins, Jerome Ford is not the best RB but I honestly think this is a RBBC as well and Browns O is not something you need to have backups for.

Where does Sampson fit in? I would have him and Judkins kinda even right now with Ford behind them and hope for a late season breakout to help down the road.

 

[Hartliner]

I edited the above to include a ranking of kingmakers too. top 8!
and added the folks that had good arguments. Thanks for contributing @socrates @FarFromHome @Gally @Runkle

I looked and saw at some of the improvements from the 2024 thread and will work those in too for the coming weeks once we get more data.

 

[Hartliner]

CLE

• Quinshon Judkins, Jerome Ford is not the best RB but I honestly think this is a RBBC as well and Browns O is not something you need to have backups for.

Where does Sampson fit in? I would have him and Judkins kinda even right now with Ford behind them and hope for a late season breakout to help down the road.

If they are down in most games as I expect it would make sense for the pass catching back to be more utilized and that is Sampson. but as I said before I'm out on this backfield. I would guess you can monitor in redraft. Will add them tho.

 

[Jppaul]

• • Jaleel Mclaughlin is worth a monitor when/if 1 of the first 2 RBs get injured.

FYI, he might not make the team

Tyler Badie is the camp focus and everyone seems to love Blake Watson (tho they might be able to sneak him onto the practice squad)

for whatever reason, HC really wants a FB on the team, so does that mean the team only carries 3 RBs? If so, the third is Badie.

 

[socrates]

• • Jaleel Mclaughlin is worth a monitor when/if 1 of the first 2 RBs get injured.

FYI, he might not make the team

Tyler Badie is the camp focus and everyone seems to love Blake Watson (tho they might be able to sneak him onto the practice squad)

for whatever reason, HC really wants a FB on the team, so does that mean the team only carries 3 RBs? If so, the third is Badie.

Denver is really loaded at RB depth. There will be one or more of the RBs released by Denver who find another team, I suspect. After Harvey and Dobbins, the Broncos have Badie, McLaughlin, Estime and Watson. I thought McLaughlin had a good showing this weekend, but the coaching staff knows what they have in these guys, so that may not move the needle much. The Broncos will keep perhaps 4. Harvey and Dobbins are locks. Estime, McLaughlin, Badie and Watson may be competing for two roster spots. I think Badie makes it, they may try to sneak Watson onto the practice squad. That leaves either Audric Estime or Jaleel McLaughlin on the outside looking in. Honestly, either of them could find himself in a better situation with another team.

 

[Runkle]

The crazy lotto ticket is Brian Robinson Jr and wherever he lands, whether by trade or if he is cut and signed somewhere.

 

[King of the Jungle]

The crazy lotto ticket is Brian Robinson Jr and wherever he lands, whether by trade or if he is cut and signed somewhere.

Not sure how much of a lotto ticket he is. He is a balanced RB without much upside, I think his best yardage totals are behind him unless he lands in an emergency situation with a good squad.

 

[Jppaul]

I think Badie makes it, they may try to sneak Watson onto the practice squad. That leaves either Audric Estime or Jaleel McLaughlin on the outside looking in.

so... what I said.

The Broncos will keep perhaps 4.

does that include FB? Because HC really wants one, eventho i rarely see one on the field. The reasoning is that the FB makes the DEF declare coverage/scheme.

The key here is that my Broncos are deeper than they've been in YEARS. They'll probably keep 3 RB + FB because they need THAT spot for WR or DB. Rumor is that they'll keep six WRs. If 5, then Vele gets released.

 

[Runkle]

The crazy lotto ticket is Brian Robinson Jr and wherever he lands, whether by trade or if he is cut and signed somewhere.

Not sure how much of a lotto ticket he is. He is a balanced RB without much upside, I think his best yardage totals are behind him unless he lands in an emergency situation with a good squad.

I think he's basically free now. Where is he going to get drafted? The second-to-last round ahead of the kickers? I don't know. We draft after preseason week 3 and then waivers are locked until fantasy week 1 starts on Sept. 2nd so you have to hold for a very long week of news and cuts and shifts. If nothing happens or if he's in a bad spot, fine, drop him for a streaming defense. I'm just saying for the price he's as much a lotto ticket as many of the other names out there at this moment. I think if you have a spot to play with and want someone who you're going to know if the lotto ticket is a winner or a loser soon, he's a possibility. Easy drop in early September if nothing works out, some of these tickets you need to hold for 4-6 weeks before they pan out.

 

[King of the Jungle]

The crazy lotto ticket is Brian Robinson Jr and wherever he lands, whether by trade or if he is cut and signed somewhere.

Not sure how much of a lotto ticket he is. He is a balanced RB without much upside, I think his best yardage totals are behind him unless he lands in an emergency situation with a good squad.

I think he's basically free now. Where is he going to get drafted? The second-to-last round ahead of the kickers? I don't know. We draft after preseason week 3 and then waivers are locked until fantasy week 1 starts on Sept. 2nd so you have to hold for a very long week of news and cuts and shifts. If nothing happens or if he's in a bad spot, fine, drop him for a streaming defense. I'm just saying for the price he's as much a lotto ticket as many of the other names out there at this moment. I think if you have a spot to play with and want someone who you're going to know if the lotto ticket is a winner or a loser soon, he's a possibility. Easy drop in early September if nothing works out, some of these tickets you need to hold for 4-6 weeks before they pan out.

I agree with that, just not sure where he would land that would present decent upside as he is a limited RB. Cost vs production seems right as of now though.

 

[RaidersAreOne]

The crazy lotto ticket is Brian Robinson Jr and wherever he lands, whether by trade or if he is cut and signed somewhere.

I just hope he doesn't go to a team like the Texans. Don't get me wrong I think that is absolutely the best landing spot for him in terms of winning and need. However from a fantasy perspective that is a total mess of a room if it happened.

Robinson Jr, Mixon and Chubb? Good luck starting any of those guys with confidence.

 

[socrates]

I think Badie makes it, they may try to sneak Watson onto the practice squad. That leaves either Audric Estime or Jaleel McLaughlin on the outside looking in.

so... what I said.

The Broncos will keep perhaps 4.

does that include FB? Because HC really wants one, eventho i rarely see one on the field. The reasoning is that the FB makes the DEF declare coverage/scheme.

The key here is that my Broncos are deeper than they've been in YEARS. They'll probably keep 3 RB + FB because they need THAT spot for WR or DB. Rumor is that they'll keep six WRs. If 5, then Vele gets released.

There are going to be some very difficult decisions. It is a nice problem to have, I suppose.

As for FB, isn't Burton injured? I don't know much about Prentice.

 

[Runkle]

I edited the above to include a ranking of kingmakers too. top 8!
and added the folks that had good arguments. Thanks for contributing @socrates @FarFromHome @Gally @Runkle

I looked and saw at some of the improvements from the 2024 thread and will work those in too for the coming weeks once we get more data.

Just want to say, thanks for the thread, one of the better ones to follow through the season. My FF strategy is basically "Bananas". That is, I want some ripe yellow bananas on my team and in my starting lineup, but, on my bench I always want a couple of green ones that will get ripe and be ready later in case I need them in a month or in the playoffs. I'm big on 'polarized outcomes', finding guys later that will either be regularly flex-worthy or out-and-out obvious drops, nothing in between. Maximizing roster efficiency is usually the key to my team winning and losing so threads like this are always chock full of good information and stuff to be thinking about.

 

[Desert_Power]

I think Badie makes it, they may try to sneak Watson onto the practice squad. That leaves either Audric Estime or Jaleel McLaughlin on the outside looking in.

so... what I said.

The Broncos will keep perhaps 4.

does that include FB? Because HC really wants one, eventho i rarely see one on the field. The reasoning is that the FB makes the DEF declare coverage/scheme.

The key here is that my Broncos are deeper than they've been in YEARS. They'll probably keep 3 RB + FB because they need THAT spot for WR or DB. Rumor is that they'll keep six WRs. If 5, then Vele gets released.

There are going to be some very difficult decisions. It is a nice problem to have, I suppose.

As for FB, isn't Burton injured? I don't know much about Prentice.

Prentice is a jack of all trades type of FB/ST player. Always a favorite of coaches at the college level.

Overlapped with Sean Payton his last year in New Orleans so I imagine some familiarity with the scheme is an attribute.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Who called this meeting?
One of my favorite preseason and. in season threads

 

[Ministry of Pain]

You might want to add Ollie Gordon II-rookie for Miami
Looks the part, much better than Wright in camp and preseason

Won the Doak Walker award for his 2023 season at Ok St, very impressive season
Not sure what happened to him in '24 but Maimi stole him 6th round

 

[Penguin]

Hearing that the Jones/Mason split will be closer to 50/50 than most believe

 

[MrSoup]

Giddens. I think he will start chipping away more and more touches as the season goes on. He’s too talented to be kept off the field.