As you ask about upside, not value or how I'd rank them:BellWho would have the most upside among these RB's that should be available in the 3rd round of a 12 team initial dynasty draft?
Lewis
Benson
Parker
Bell
Dunn
Current ADP of #33 pick overall.
If Parker is on the list, surely Chester should be there too.Current ADP of #33 pick overall.
I agree with your upside/value comparison.As you ask about upside, not value or how I'd rank them:
Bell
Benson
Lewis
Parker
Dunn
If you ask how I'd rank them,
Dunn
Lewis
Bell
Parker
Benson
Dunn is the outright starter and will have more immediate impact on a FF team, especially in PPR leagues, but he is 31 and his upside for dynasty leagues is pretty skinny because of durability concerns. The others still have 5+ years of respectable FF dynasty value, barring any future trades or RBBC's.
UPSIDE
Lewis
Benson
Bell
Parker
Dunn
VALUE
Dunn
Lewis
Bell
Parker
Benson
Hey relic, who'd you pick up in the first two rounds? That could help with deciding.
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Not sure why everyone loves parker so much? He had 3 great games last year.... butRedraft?
I like Parker.
New Dynasty?
Benson with Parker being very close.
Parker showed last year he could be very valuable fantasy wise even with the Bus stealing all goalline TD's. Parker can't help but fall in the endzone more this year.
I agree with your upside/value comparison.
UPSIDE
Lewis
Benson
Bell
I personally would rather have Dayne even with his warts and blemishes. IMO, Denver has gone out of its way to NOT make Bell the primary back. That is plenty enough reason to be concerned about his upside IMO.I agree with your upside/value comparison.
UPSIDE
Lewis
Benson
BellI just don't see how the upside of Bell is lower than Benson or Lewis, if by pure upside we can think "what if Bell is the lead back, and actually gets 25 carries per game?"
A whole lotta risk with the kid, but for pure upside, he's hard to beat.
Even if I completely agree, the question is "upside". I read that as "pure upside" not "likely upside" or "value".I personally would rather have Dayne even with his warts and blemishes. IMO, Denver has gone out of its way to NOT make Bell the primary back. That is plenty enough reason to be concerned about his upside IMO.I agree with your upside/value comparison.
UPSIDE
Lewis
Benson
BellI just don't see how the upside of Bell is lower than Benson or Lewis, if by pure upside we can think "what if Bell is the lead back, and actually gets 25 carries per game?"
A whole lotta risk with the kid, but for pure upside, he's hard to beat.
Well, if you make me pick:1. Bell -- Denver upside $$$ if Bell the back (but who ever knows?!)Who would have the most upside among these RB's that should be available in the 3rd round of a 12 team initial dynasty draft?
Lewis
Benson
Parker
Bell
Dunn
I guess the question here is what do we call upsaide? IMO, Dayne starts, Bell is the CoP back in Denver. If Dayne completley fails or gets hurt . . . then IMO Cobbs takes over. Shanahan has made it pretty clear (to me anyway) that Bell is not considered a workhorse back and will not see a ton of carries unless they have no other options.So sure, count me in if the worst case scenario happens and there are no other options and Bell gets 450 touches and 30 combined TD, becuase "technically" that "could" happen (well, at least in Madden it could).Even if I completely agree, the question is "upside". I read that as "pure upside" not "likely upside" or "value".I personally would rather have Dayne even with his warts and blemishes. IMO, Denver has gone out of its way to NOT make Bell the primary back. That is plenty enough reason to be concerned about his upside IMO.I agree with your upside/value comparison.
UPSIDE
Lewis
Benson
BellI just don't see how the upside of Bell is lower than Benson or Lewis, if by pure upside we can think "what if Bell is the lead back, and actually gets 25 carries per game?"
A whole lotta risk with the kid, but for pure upside, he's hard to beat.
I guess the question here is what do we call upsaide? IMO, Dayne starts, Bell is the CoP back in Denver. If Dayne completley fails or gets hurt . . . then IMO Cobbs takes over. Shanahan has made it pretty clear (to me anyway) that Bell is not considered a workhorse back and will not see a ton of carries unless they have no other options.So sure, count me in if the worst case scenario happens and there are no other options and Bell gets 450 touches and 30 combined TD, becuase "technically" that "could" happen (well, at least in Madden it could).Even if I completely agree, the question is "upside". I read that as "pure upside" not "likely upside" or "value".I personally would rather have Dayne even with his warts and blemishes. IMO, Denver has gone out of its way to NOT make Bell the primary back. That is plenty enough reason to be concerned about his upside IMO.I agree with your upside/value comparison.
UPSIDE
Lewis
Benson
BellI just don't see how the upside of Bell is lower than Benson or Lewis, if by pure upside we can think "what if Bell is the lead back, and actually gets 25 carries per game?"
A whole lotta risk with the kid, but for pure upside, he's hard to beat.
But I generally reside on Planet Earth, and in my universe I think that that is pretty unlikely.
I agree entirely. Lewis wouldn't be on my radar in the third regardless of format or goal. Neither would Tater, cause if Shanahan isn't sold on him, I'm not going to risk that high a pick.In a redraft, I'd probably go with Dunn, but in a dynasty, no way.In a 12-team dynasty draft, I think you'd have to consider what sort of team you are building, a win now team... or a team with its eyes more on next year and the following season.
If you want to win this season, I think Parker is the choice. Youth and opportunity in Pitt. If you can wait until next year, Benson is right up there. He should get a huge opportunity in Chi to be their grind it out RB.
If it weren't a dynasty league, Dunn would be my choice though... but I really feel this could be his last majorly productive year (and I own him in one dynasty league).
Agreed. The "upside" for Bell is workhorse RB in Denver. Historically, "workhorse RB in Denver" is a near-mortal lock for 1900+ yards and 15+ TDs if he plays the full season. So there you go- Bell's "upside" is a top-5 VBD finish.I agree with your upside/value comparison.
UPSIDE
Lewis
Benson
BellI just don't see how the upside of Bell is lower than Benson or Lewis, if by pure upside we can think "what if Bell is the lead back, and actually gets 25 carries per game?"
A whole lotta risk with the kid, but for pure upside, he's hard to beat.
No, that's plenty of reason to be concerned about his ability to REACH his upside.I personally would rather have Dayne even with his warts and blemishes. IMO, Denver has gone out of its way to NOT make Bell the primary back. That is plenty enough reason to be concerned about his upside IMO.
All talk of HYPOTHETICAL upside aside... the thing standing between Tatum Bell and the workhorse role isn't Ron Dayne... it's Tatum Bell. If Tatum Bell had shown enough that Shanny believed he could handle it, he would be the workhorse, end of discussion. If he hasn't shown enough to convince Shanny he can handle it, he will always have another back keeping him fresh, end of discussion.![]()
Shanny knows best, but Dayne hasn't shown any reason yet for us to think he can handle the load. Shanny has done well with project backs, maybe Dayne is the next one. My upside for Bell consists of Dayne failing.