4 RBs that could make or break you (1 Viewer)

[Hear-the-Footsteps]

The more I work on and tweak my own top 40-50 guys, the more I realize it is the same 4 RBs that I keep moving around the most.

Seriously everytime I look over my list and make adjustments, it is these same 4 RBs that give me a very hard time. Some people are avoiding all 4 of these (due to each of their respective concerns (injuries, holdout, suspension, etc)). But I think at some point, if enough people pass on them early in favor of the safer guy - eventually they can be big for you.

The four RBs:

- Maurice Jones-Drew

- Ryan Mathews

- Marshawn Lynch

- Adrian Peterson

I will assume since this is a FF Shark forum, that everyone knows the issues surrounding these four. So let's get right up to the point: where do you take them? Where do you finally get comfortable with them? Where have they been going in your drafts? (If you answer, please don't just say something like "3rd round in mine" - instead say "3rd round in a 10 team PPR league" - since that is a lot different than "3rd round in a 14 team non-PPR league."

The other not as obvious aspect about this is: if you dominate your league every yr - then you should feel more comfortable drafting these guys as you want them when they will be fully back into the swing of things (ie, your playoffs). If, however, you have a hard or very competitive league - you cannot just give up early season wins in anticipation of making up for them along the way. You need wins from the get-go, which is where these guys can hurt you. Especially if you start off with divisional games in your league.

So where do you like each of these 4? Where have they been going? And do you agree with where they are getting taken? Would you like to go back and try and get them before someone else? Would you like to go back and not select them at all? And if you haven't drafted yet, where will you target them? Or will you avoid them no matter what?

 

[ppierce]

MJD - DND if there is no new info by the time i draft

Matthews - I probably would take him in the 4th. i never liked him and never trusted him but in the 4th its probably worth it

Lynch - DND for me.

AP- DND for me

please see my posts

 

[cheese]

The more I work on and tweak my own top 40-50 guys, the more I realize it is the same 4 RBs that I keep moving around the most.

Seriously everytime I look over my list and make adjustments, it is these same 4 RBs that give me a very hard time. Some people are avoiding all 4 of these (due to each of their respective concerns (injuries, holdout, suspension, etc)). But I think at some point, if enough people pass on them early in favor of the safer guy - eventually they can be big for you.

The four RBs:

- Maurice Jones-Drew

- Ryan Mathews

- Marshawn Lynch

- Adrian Peterson

I will assume since this is a FF Shark forum, that everyone knows the issues surrounding these four. So let's get right up to the point: where do you take them? Where do you finally get comfortable with them? Where have they been going in your drafts? (If you answer, please don't just say something like "3rd round in mine" - instead say "3rd round in a 10 team PPR league" - since that is a lot different than "3rd round in a 14 team non-PPR league."

The other not as obvious aspect about this is: if you dominate your league every yr - then you should feel more comfortable drafting these guys as you want them when they will be fully back into the swing of things (ie, your playoffs). If, however, you have a hard or very competitive league - you cannot just give up early season wins in anticipation of making up for them along the way. You need wins from the get-go, which is where these guys can hurt you. Especially if you start off with divisional games in your league.

So where do you like each of these 4? Where have they been going? And do you agree with where they are getting taken? Would you like to go back and try and get them before someone else? Would you like to go back and not select them at all? And if you haven't drafted yet, where will you target them? Or will you avoid them no matter what?

Good thread.I completely agree with your point that it matters what league format you're in. One of my leagues doesn't use playoffs and compiles based on victory points + weekly ranking starting with week 1. In a league like that, you can't get behind early.

If I'm in an easy league with playoffs to decide things, I'm happier to take these guys. You're right about starting out with division opponents though and it's always a small margin for error even in most guppy leagues.

Anyway, in general I think I'm looking in this direction in rd 3. Lynch has the smallest of the issues, but would otherwise be ranked the lowest. Personally, I think I like them in the order you list them. MJD, Matthews, Lynch, ADP. None are worth a 2nd for me and any of them are probably worth a 3rd for the upside.

 

[urbanhack]

MJD - DND if there is no new info by the time i draft

Matthews - I probably would take him in the 4th. i never liked him and never trusted him but in the 4th its probably worth it

Lynch - DND for me.

AP- DND for me



please see my posts

 

[Cyclones]

I play in a ten team non PPR, performance scoring, start 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, Flex.

First I'll say where each of these guys went;

Mathews 1.9

Lynch 2.1

MJD 2.2

ADP 2.6

The Lynch pick was mine (I got Calvin at 1.10) and I would take him again in that spot if the draft fell the same way. I am bullish on Lynch, obviously Mathews went way too high, our draft was the day the collarbone injury happened and he was stuck at work, hadn't heard about it. When I drafted at the 3.10/4.1 turn, if any of the other three had been there, I would have taken them at that point, I think they offer good value late 3/early 4. I ended up with 2 more WR's and got Richardson at 5.10 as my RB2, so I really need Lynch to meet my expectations.

I'm also not following your point about Lynch hurting me early, was something announced this morning that I missed?

 

[FDC]

I'm not sure those 4 are the guys that are going to make or break anyone. Those are guys we know that can perform when on the field and healthy.

The make or break type guys I'm looking at are guys like Doug Martin, Ryan Williams, David Wilson, Donald Brown.

 

[VaTerp]

Good topic.

MJD- One of my favorite guys in the NFL but I am very leery this year. A holdout is bad enough but then you factor in a new coaching staff, a healthy Jennings, other questions I'm just likely to avoid him. Right now, I would not even consider him unless he somehow slipped to the 3rd round of 12 teamers. If he signed today and if I went for a position outside of RB with my first pick I may be more inclined to take MJD in the 2nd but I don't know. I'd think you also have to reach to make sure you get Jennings as well whenever you take him. He went 1.07 in my 12 team draft last Sunday and Jennings went in the 9th to another owner. Too early for me even if he signed today. Also, just seeing that Schefter is speculating his holdout will extend into the reg. season. He is approaching DND status for me.

Mathews- I'm bullish on him and recently took him at 3.03. I would consider him anywhere in the 2nd.

Lynch- With all of the questions surrounding RBs I actually think Lynch is one of the safer picks this year. He has slowly moved up my board this summer and I think he's a solid pick, really anywhere in the 2nd round. He went 2.05 in my draft which I think was a good spot for him.

Peterson- This is the one guy giving me the most difficulty. I posted my personal rankings on here the other week and had him at RB19, much lower than most. By all accounts he is having an amazing recovery but I just don't trust a guy who runs the way he does coming back so soon from such an extensive knee injury. But you see that name sitting there during your draft, hear all the glowing reports about his recovery and it tempts you. He went 2.08 in the draft I've been referring to. Much like MJD, I think Peterson becomes a more attractive role of the dice if you went Calvin or QB in the first. It would be hard to pass on him in the 3rd but I really would not draft him before that and more likely think he is in the 4th/5th round value on my board.

 

[cheese]

I play in a ten team non PPR, performance scoring, start 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, Flex. First I'll say where each of these guys went;Mathews 1.9Lynch 2.1MJD 2.2ADP 2.6The Lynch pick was mine (I got Calvin at 1.10) and I would take him again in that spot if the draft fell the same way. I am bullish on Lynch, obviously Mathews went way too high, our draft was the day the collarbone injury happened and he was stuck at work, hadn't heard about it. When I drafted at the 3.10/4.1 turn, if any of the other three had been there, I would have taken them at that point, I think they offer good value late 3/early 4. I ended up with 2 more WR's and got Richardson at 5.10 as my RB2, so I really need Lynch to meet my expectations. I'm also not following your point about Lynch hurting me early, was something announced this morning that I missed?

Would you mind giving the date of this draft? I am guessing about 10 days ago because of the Matthews comment. It seems like every day that passes these guys get moved down boards, especially MJD. Lynch has back problems and a possible suspension looming.

 

[Zackattack]

Lynch seems to fall in drafts. All I read is he will not be suspended this year. He was obviously beast mode late last year. Seattle looks to be better I feel. Russell Wilson directed 7 drives for 6 sores and 1 missed field goal. I see opportunties for Lynch. Why no draft him?

 

[Concept Coop]

Russell Wilson directed 7 drives for 6 sores and 1 missed field goal. I see opportunties for Lynch. Why no draft him?

Not to change topic... but,

 

[Zeff]

I think Lynch is a second rounder, but probably toward the bottom of the second. Not really concerned about his back. I like to think being on a team that looks like it's dedicated to becoming competitive will keep him motivated, but he's obviously had problems in that realm in the past. Only thing that keeps him from being a late first rounder, IMO.

I think MJD will prove to be an excellent value if taken in the second, but I'd hesitate to draft him there if it were a league where the stakes were high enough that I felt like I really had something riding on him. In that scenario, I'd probably just let him become someone else's problem. Any other kind of league, I'd reach in the 2nd and trust in my ability to cover for him later in the draft.

I see no real value in Peterson. I think he's almost forced to become one-dimensional and a time-sharer. The Vikes are terrified to even let him see contact in the preseason. What does that tell you? 8 months out from that injury, no way he can be anything but a plow-straight-ahead runner. And I'm not sure he'll be the best one of those on his own team. I think the biggest service ADP provides fantasy ballers this year is that his physical limitations are going to make Percy Harvin even more valuable. I've got Peterson as a decent risk around the 6th round, but obviously he'd never be available anywhere near there, so he's essentially off my draft lists.

Ryan Mathews is a 3rd round value to me. Especially if I've gone RB-RB the first two. Hedges against the chance he may suffer a setback or continue to be as fragile as...himself, I guess. But offers me the chance to have a first round value at FLEX for 80% of the season if everything goes well. Would rejigger on the fly and downgrade him if he were going to be my RB1. Would not have any interest in heading into the season relying on the guy. Would rather have Sproles, Bush, McGahee, or whoever else in that role, if push came to shove.

(ETA: J. Charles is a late-third, early fourth guy for me, too. I just see too many reasons the Chiefs won't have to push him to produce. It's almost like they were able to completely reload their offense this season. Hillis is going to be the guy they don't mind putting the wear and tear on, and I expect him to outscore Charles by a healthy margin over the course of the season.)

 

[Cyclones]

Lynch seems to fall in drafts. All I read is he will not be suspended this year. He was obviously beast mode late last year. Seattle looks to be better I feel. Russell Wilson directed 7 drives for 6 sores and 1 missed field goal. I see opportunties for Lynch. Why no draft him?

This is my feeling on Lynch - obviously I am biased and I took him in my draft - Rice, Foster, McCoy, CJohnson, Mathews and McFadden had been taken at that point, and I didn't consider any of the next 5-10 RB in the ADP rankings to be as safe as Lynch. He was RB5 last year in my league despite a horrible start, he was consistent over the last 9 weeks, etc. A guy like Murray for example put up a bunch of his points in one game, Gore is wearing down and there are 3 RBs on that roster who will take carries, AP has the injury, MJD holdout, etc. You can't win a fantasy league in round 1 but you can lose it - to me, Lynch offers the least chance of a disaster due to his situation.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

All 4 went 1st or 2nd in every draft I've done.

 

[Wadsworth]

If you draft based on ADP there is a pretty good chance you will be average. Sure some of these guys are scary to draft but singles hitters rarely win the MVP. Put on your big girl panties and take some chances. Unless you are in a league of guppies you are almost never going to win playing it safe.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

MJD - DND if there is no new info by the time i draft

Matthews - I probably would take him in the 4th. i never liked him and never trusted him but in the 4th its probably worth it

Lynch - DND for me.

AP- DND for me



please see my posts

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Lynch seems to fall in drafts. All I read is he will not be suspended this year. He was obviously beast mode late last year. Seattle looks to be better I feel. Russell Wilson directed 7 drives for 6 sores and 1 missed field goal. I see opportunties for Lynch. Why no draft him?

This is my feeling on Lynch - obviously I am biased and I took him in my draft - Rice, Foster, McCoy, CJohnson, Mathews and McFadden had been taken at that point, and I didn't consider any of the next 5-10 RB in the ADP rankings to be as safe as Lynch. He was RB5 last year in my league despite a horrible start, he was consistent over the last 9 weeks, etc. A guy like Murray for example put up a bunch of his points in one game, Gore is wearing down and there are 3 RBs on that roster who will take carries, AP has the injury, MJD holdout, etc. You can't win a fantasy league in round 1 but you can lose it - to me, Lynch offers the least chance of a disaster due to his situation.

Lynch went 1.12 in my oldest league. If u can grab him in the 2nd jump on it.

 

[[icon]]

Russell Wilson directed 7 drives for 6 sores and 1 missed field goal. I see opportunties for Lynch. Why no draft him?

Not to change topic... but,

THANKS SORES!

 

[Hear-the-Footsteps]

I play in a ten team non PPR, performance scoring, start 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, Flex.

First I'll say where each of these guys went;

Mathews 1.9

Lynch 2.1

MJD 2.2

ADP 2.6

The Lynch pick was mine (I got Calvin at 1.10) and I would take him again in that spot if the draft fell the same way. I am bullish on Lynch, obviously Mathews went way too high, our draft was the day the collarbone injury happened and he was stuck at work, hadn't heard about it. When I drafted at the 3.10/4.1 turn, if any of the other three had been there, I would have taken them at that point, I think they offer good value late 3/early 4. I ended up with 2 more WR's and got Richardson at 5.10 as my RB2, so I really need Lynch to meet my expectations.

I'm also not following your point about Lynch hurting me early, was something announced this morning that I missed?

Back injury & facing possible discipline for offseason DUI.

 

[Zeff]

If you draft based on ADP there is a pretty good chance you will be average. Sure some of these guys are scary to draft but singles hitters rarely win the MVP. Put on your big girl panties and take some chances. Unless you are in a league of guppies you are almost never going to win playing it safe.

Bad posting.You win when some of your guys drastically outproduce their draft prices.The guys above all carry huge draft day prices already. If everything goes 100%, you break even. If it doesn't, you sink. You draft smart the first quarter of the draft, then take your shots. MJD's the only guy here with that kind of upside, though it depends a lot on how far he falls in your draft.You want to to "take some chances" you grab Fred Jackson instead of Peterson in the second. Fred's a first round value going in the third. You reach up a round or two and grab Donald Brown, a second round value going in the sixth. You don't hold your breath and hope the RB with the blown out knee returns value on your #15 overall selection.

 

[Timmay]

Only player i am focusing on is Lynch at his current ADP, the other 3 will have to fall into the 3rd or beyond for me to want to take a chance on, but i know someone in all my leagues will draft them either in the 1st or early 2nd, because there are so many RB's this year that are hit or miss.

 

[VaTerp]

If you draft based on ADP there is a pretty good chance you will be average. Sure some of these guys are scary to draft but singles hitters rarely win the MVP. Put on your big girl panties and take some chances. Unless you are in a league of guppies you are almost never going to win playing it safe.

Bad posting.You win when some of your guys drastically outproduce their draft prices.The guys above all carry huge draft day prices already. If everything goes 100%, you break even. If it doesn't, you sink. You draft smart the first quarter of the draft, then take your shots. MJD's the only guy here with that kind of upside, though it depends a lot on how far he falls in your draft.You want to to "take some chances" you grab Fred Jackson instead of Peterson in the second. Fred's a first round value going in the third. You reach up a round or two and grab Donald Brown, a second round value going in the sixth. You don't hold your breath and hope the RB with the blown out knee returns value on your #15 overall selection.

 

[dickey moe]

Based on current information, I'd have to rank them:

Lynch

ADP

Matthews

MJD

I wouldn't touch any of them until probably late 3rd round, but most will probably be drafted before then.

 

[Stealthycat]

ADP

S Greene

BJGE

MJD

 

[Captain Hook]

Twelve team, $150, PPR league drafted on Saturday (8/25)

Ryan Mathews - 2.08

MJD - 3.04

Adrian Peterson - 3.08

Marshawn Lynch - 4.03

I passed on Mathews, MJD, and ADP at the beginning of rounds 2 and 3 (3RR draft)

I think all are late 3rd round or 4th round picks for me right now just because of the uncertainty and the ability at those spots to pick players you know are going to help you.

But Lynch, I was desperately hoping would continue to slide to the end of the 4th (actually 4.11) but he didn't.

Maybe I should have taken him at 3.02 - I took A.J. Green there. I think there are just enough questions (and a very good looking Robert Turbin) that continue to make him slide - yes it's much further than he should go - just saying there were eleven other people who felt the same way for three rounds

 

[Cyclones]

Twelve team, $150, PPR league drafted on Saturday (8/25)

Ryan Mathews - 2.08

MJD - 3.04

Adrian Peterson - 3.08

Marshawn Lynch - 4.03

I passed on Mathews, MJD, and ADP at the beginning of rounds 2 and 3 (3RR draft)

I think all are late 3rd round or 4th round picks for me right now just because of the uncertainty and the ability at those spots to pick players you know are going to help you.

But Lynch, I was desperately hoping would continue to slide to the end of the 4th (actually 4.11) but he didn't.

Maybe I should have taken him at 3.02 - I took A.J. Green there. I think there are just enough questions (and a very good looking Robert Turbin) that continue to make him slide - yes it's much further than he should go - just saying there were eleven other people who felt the same way for three rounds

 

[Ilov80s]

Twelve team, $150, PPR league drafted on Saturday (8/25)

Ryan Mathews - 2.08

MJD - 3.04

Adrian Peterson - 3.08

Marshawn Lynch - 4.03

I passed on Mathews, MJD, and ADP at the beginning of rounds 2 and 3 (3RR draft)

I think all are late 3rd round or 4th round picks for me right now just because of the uncertainty and the ability at those spots to pick players you know are going to help you.

But Lynch, I was desperately hoping would continue to slide to the end of the 4th (actually 4.11) but he didn't.

Maybe I should have taken him at 3.02 - I took A.J. Green there. I think there are just enough questions (and a very good looking Robert Turbin) that continue to make him slide - yes it's much further than he should go - just saying there were eleven other people who felt the same way for three rounds

That is just bad drafting. I am not a Lynch fan, but it sounds like there won't be any disciplinary actions until this thing goes through court next year.

 

[Ilov80s]

The key if taking MJD, ADP, or Matthews is paring them with the right backs. You will need to get someone like a Kevin Smith or Donald Brown- guys you might not trust starting all year long, but should be safe bets to get a full workload the first few weeks.

 

[display name]

The four RBs:

Maurice Jones-Drew: Break you as a late 1st round pick.

Ryan Mathews: Make you in the early to mid 3rd.

Marshawn Lynch: Make you in the early to mid 2nd.

Adrian Peterson: Break you in the 2nd round.

Mine:

Fred Jackson: Make you in the late 2nd. Really, really make you in the 3rd.

Doug Martin: Make you in the mid to late 3rd.

DeAngelo Williams: Make you in the 8th or later.

Trent Richardson: Break you in the 2nd.

Michael Turner: Break you anywhere before the 5th round.

 

[FF Ninja]

I'm still all about Lynch. His suspension won't come this year if it comes at all. All it did was ensure you could get him in the 2nd. I'll still maybe draft him in the 1st so I can get AJ in the second, but here are my thoughts on him (replace "Flynn" with "Wilson"):

Lots of rubbish about Lynch mailing it in now that he's been paid, but I'm not buying it. At the moment, he's got an ADP of 16 (RB8). Considering last year he was saddled with a below average QB, an injury plagued O-line, and he missed 1 game yet he finished as RB5, I believe he presents great value in the 2nd round and I wouldn't hesitate to take him in the 1st if the other guys I like are gone.He managed 12 TDs last year on a poor offensive unit (23rd in points, 28th in yards) yet a lot of people are anticipating this number to decrease now that he's got a decent QB. Sure, there may be more passing TDs, but there will be more plays and more scoring opps. And why did Lynch score so many TDs? Because Pete trusts him at the goal line. I went and checked all his plays from 5 yards and less:1 yard line: TD, TD2 yard line: TD, TD3 yard line: 2yds, TD, TD, -4yds, 2 yds (one of 2 yds was a 4th-2 conversion)4 yard line: TD, -3yds, TD5 yard line: 3ydsThat account for 8 of his touchdowns. His others were 11, 15, 16, and 40 yards with a 20 yard reception.If this offense can get within the 5 yard line more often, which I think is a certainty, then I expect his scoring to increase.Additionally, with the departure of Forsett, there is a chance Lynch will improve upon his 28 receptions last year. He is a good blocker and he caught the same % of his targets as Forsett did last year. No need to bank on this, though. He is a value at RB8 even if he doesn't catch any passes.300 carries x 4.4 ypc = 1320 yds 15 TD, 55 targets x 67% = 37 rec x 7.0 ypr = 260 yds 0 TDI'm predicting 300 carries to be conservative, but he was averaging well over 20 carries a game when Seattle was not being blown out. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he puts up monster carry numbers this year (like Michael Turner in 2008) which allows him to slip into the top 3. I know, sounds like crazy talk, but if this line gels and they're able to plug it in at will like they did with Shaun Alexander then the sky is the limit for Lynch.Obviously a lot of Lynch's production depends on Flynn keeping the defense honest. He was seeing a lot of 8 in the box last year. If Flynn and Rice hit it off then Lynch could post his best ypc of his career this year. Combine that with the possibility of 20+ carries per game, 30-40 rec, and 15+ TD and you have a really, really high ceiling.

 

[Cyclones]

If you draft based on ADP there is a pretty good chance you will be average. Sure some of these guys are scary to draft but singles hitters rarely win the MVP. Put on your big girl panties and take some chances. Unless you are in a league of guppies you are almost never going to win playing it safe.

Bad posting.You win when some of your guys drastically outproduce their draft prices.

The guys above all carry huge draft day prices already. If everything goes 100%, you break even. If it doesn't, you sink. You draft smart the first quarter of the draft, then take your shots. MJD's the only guy here with that kind of upside, though it depends a lot on how far he falls in your draft.

You want to to "take some chances" you grab Fred Jackson instead of Peterson in the second. Fred's a first round value going in the third. You reach up a round or two and grab Donald Brown, a second round value going in the sixth. You don't hold your breath and hope the RB with the blown out knee returns value on your #15 overall selection.

Again, I am biased since he is on my roster, but last year over his last 11 games, when the Seahawks started being competitive and with a few months of Cable's run blocking system in place, Lynch put up 1225 total yards and 12 TD. That extrapolates to 1781/17 over 16 games. Nothing wrong with that upside to me. He also scored a TD in 10 of those 11 games. What exactly is the upside for the guys getting drafted around Lynch?

 

[Clifford]

Recently skipped on MJD, Lynch, and AP in the second. Looking back on it probably should have taken Lynch.

 

[Wadsworth]

If you draft based on ADP there is a pretty good chance you will be average. Sure some of these guys are scary to draft but singles hitters rarely win the MVP. Put on your big girl panties and take some chances. Unless you are in a league of guppies you are almost never going to win playing it safe.

Bad posting.You win when some of your guys drastically outproduce their draft prices.

The guys above all carry huge draft day prices already. If everything goes 100%, you break even. If it doesn't, you sink. You draft smart the first quarter of the draft, then take your shots. MJD's the only guy here with that kind of upside, though it depends a lot on how far he falls in your draft.

You want to to "take some chances" you grab Fred Jackson instead of Peterson in the second. Fred's a first round value going in the third. You reach up a round or two and grab Donald Brown, a second round value going in the sixth. You don't hold your breath and hope the RB with the blown out knee returns value on your #15 overall selection.

ADP according to FBG consensus as of 8/27:MJD - 17

Lynch - 31

Peterson - 21

Matthews - 22

I do not consider that a huge draft day price considering the upside for these guys(though I am not big on Mathews this year). Sure it is a risk, but drafting smart is subjective. MJD fell in many drafts last year because "smart" people were avoiding him(almost 2k yards and 11 TDS).

-Lynch averaged over 100 yards and a TD game from week 9 on, taking him at #31 does not mean you break even if things go 100%.

-Even though MJD has only been a starter for half of his 6 season career, he has average over 1,500 combined yards and 12 TDS per season. If things go 100% with him he is clearly a bargain at #17.

All picks have risk. Drafting scared and calling it smart do not trump research and risk vs reward analysis.

 

[FF Ninja]

ADP according to FBG consensus as of 8/27:MJD - 17Lynch - 31Peterson - 21Matthews - 22

Just to clear things up, that is the PPR ADP.Non-PPR:MJD- 13Lynch - 22ADP - 19Mathews - 26

 

[ComfortablyNumb]

The four RBs:Maurice Jones-Drew: Break you as a late 1st round pick.Ryan Mathews: Make you in the early to mid 3rd. Marshawn Lynch: Make you in the early to mid 2nd.Adrian Peterson: Break you in the 2nd round.Mine:Fred Jackson: Make you in the late 2nd. Really, really make you in the 3rd.Doug Martin: Make you in the mid to late 3rd.DeAngelo Williams: Make you in the 8th or later.Trent Richardson: Break you in the 2nd.Michael Turner: Break you anywhere before the 5th round.

 

[Ilov80s]

If you draft based on ADP there is a pretty good chance you will be average. Sure some of these guys are scary to draft but singles hitters rarely win the MVP. Put on your big girl panties and take some chances. Unless you are in a league of guppies you are almost never going to win playing it safe.

Bad posting.You win when some of your guys drastically outproduce their draft prices.

The guys above all carry huge draft day prices already. If everything goes 100%, you break even. If it doesn't, you sink. You draft smart the first quarter of the draft, then take your shots. MJD's the only guy here with that kind of upside, though it depends a lot on how far he falls in your draft.

You want to to "take some chances" you grab Fred Jackson instead of Peterson in the second. Fred's a first round value going in the third. You reach up a round or two and grab Donald Brown, a second round value going in the sixth. You don't hold your breath and hope the RB with the blown out knee returns value on your #15 overall selection.

Again, I am biased since he is on my roster, but last year over his last 11 games, when the Seahawks started being competitive and with a few months of Cable's run blocking system in place, Lynch put up 1225 total yards and 12 TD. That extrapolates to 1781/17 over 16 games. Nothing wrong with that upside to me. He also scored a TD in 10 of those 11 games. What exactly is the upside for the guys getting drafted around Lynch?

I think Fred Jackson is the only other back going in that area with similar upside. If Fred Jackson had not gotten hurt and had continued at the pace he had through 10 games, he would gave finished with 2200 yards 10 TDs and 60 receptions.

 

[OnTheReg]

I think MJD poses the biggest risk. Missing training camp, there's no sign of this holdout ending. I have and will continue to pass on him. Mathews, on the other hand, love him, he got a good report from the doctor yesterday.

 

[Ghost Rider]

The four RBs:- Maurice Jones-Drew- Ryan Mathews- Marshawn Lynch- Adrian Peterson

I want no part of any of these four. Holdouts scare me (they seem to almost always get hurt or not be as effective), so there goes MJD. AP is a beast, but I have a hard time believing he will return to form so quickly after such an injury, and he has been going for a lot in every auction, more than I will pay, so I won't have him. Mathews is too frustrating, especially since he seems to get dinged up a lot in games even when he does play, leaving you with almost nothing in your starting lineup.I am not sure Lynch will repeat what he did last year, and again, most are paying more for him than I will, so no go on him either for me.I suspect one or two of these guys will prove me wrong, but I have no idea which one, and I ain't paying a lot for all of them in various auctions to find out.

 

[MAC_32]

MJD and Marshawn have been buried far enougn in my rankings since July (or earlier) that I haven't had to worry about them.

I wasn't actively pursuing AD, but I wasn't avoiding him either, just depended on my team needs when he was on the board. As it turns out I didn't need him or didn't have shots at him, always went by early round 3 or comparable auction prices. Similar story with post injury Mathews, although he is on 2 of my teams as we drafted before the injury. Never made it to my 3rd or comparable prices, so never considered him.

I guess that's my tune with them, if they slip, yes, but won't fret it if they do't.

 

[Wadsworth]

The four RBs:- Maurice Jones-Drew- Ryan Mathews- Marshawn Lynch- Adrian Peterson

I want no part of any of these four. Holdouts scare me (they seem to almost always get hurt or not be as effective), so there goes MJD. AP is a beast, but I have a hard time believing he will return to form so quickly after such an injury, and he has been going for a lot in every auction, more than I will pay, so I won't have him. Mathews is too frustrating, especially since he seems to get dinged up a lot in games even when he does play, leaving you with almost nothing in your starting lineup.I am not sure Lynch will repeat what he did last year, and again, most are paying more for him than I will, so no go on him either for me.I suspect one or two of these guys will prove me wrong, but I have no idea which one, and I ain't paying a lot for all of them in various auctions to find out.

Other than Foster, McCoy and Rice all the RBs have some significant red flags or at least question marks. MJD and ADP have been very productive fantasy RBs their entire careers. Lynch was as good as anyone the second half last year and the offense in Seattle looks improved. I am not that big on Matthews but he has averaged 4.7 a carry for his career and can catch the ball in that offense(50 in 14 games). Sure they have issues, which is why you can get them later. But it is not like McFadden, Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Forte, Trent Richardson, S. Jackson, F. Jackson and Murray don't have issues.

 

[Cyclones]

The four RBs:- Maurice Jones-Drew- Ryan Mathews- Marshawn Lynch- Adrian Peterson

I want no part of any of these four. Holdouts scare me (they seem to almost always get hurt or not be as effective), so there goes MJD. AP is a beast, but I have a hard time believing he will return to form so quickly after such an injury, and he has been going for a lot in every auction, more than I will pay, so I won't have him. Mathews is too frustrating, especially since he seems to get dinged up a lot in games even when he does play, leaving you with almost nothing in your starting lineup.I am not sure Lynch will repeat what he did last year, and again, most are paying more for him than I will, so no go on him either for me.I suspect one or two of these guys will prove me wrong, but I have no idea which one, and I ain't paying a lot for all of them in various auctions to find out.

Other than Foster, McCoy and Rice all the RBs have some significant red flags or at least question marks. MJD and ADP have been very productive fantasy RBs their entire careers. Lynch was as good as anyone the second half last year and the offense in Seattle looks improved. I am not that big on Matthews but he has averaged 4.7 a carry for his career and can catch the ball in that offense(50 in 14 games). Sure they have issues, which is why you can get them later. But it is not like McFadden, Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Forte, Trent Richardson, S. Jackson, F. Jackson and Murray don't have issues.

I think that's the key here. After the big 3 there are question marks surrounding every RB. Frankly, picking from the 10 hole in my ten team league, I was hoping that either Brees or McFadden would fall to me. When Calvin did, I was pretty much forced to take a RB with my 2.01 pick, and Lynch seemed the safest play to me. If I pass on Lynch there, I am looking at someone like Michael Turner as my RB1, which I wasn't willing to risk. There could be an argument for taking Graham or Gronk here I suppose, but I wasn't particulary sold on the next tier of WRs after CJ being separated by much so I felt it was either take an RB there or be in real trouble.

 

[VaTerp]

The four RBs:

- Maurice Jones-Drew

- Ryan Mathews

- Marshawn Lynch

- Adrian Peterson

I want no part of any of these four. Holdouts scare me (they seem to almost always get hurt or not be as effective), so there goes MJD.

AP is a beast, but I have a hard time believing he will return to form so quickly after such an injury, and he has been going for a lot in every auction, more than I will pay, so I won't have him.

Mathews is too frustrating, especially since he seems to get dinged up a lot in games even when he does play, leaving you with almost nothing in your starting lineup.

I am not sure Lynch will repeat what he did last year, and again, most are paying more for him than I will, so no go on him either for me.

I suspect one or two of these guys will prove me wrong, but I have no idea which one, and I ain't paying a lot for all of them in various auctions to find out.

Last year, Mathews played enough to get 15 touches or more in 12 of the 14 games he played in. And that was sharing touches with Tolbert. Another example of what IMO is overstating his injury history. Certainly understand the concern though.Agree with a lot of other stuff above but the more I look at it I slit these 4 RBs into two different camps:

RBs whose question marks make them good value as I believe they will perform despite the questions.

Mathews

Lynch

RBs whose question marks I think are being overlooked because of their names and will not perform up to ADP IMO:

MJD

Peterson

I'm comfortable taking Mathews or Lynch anywhere in 2nd round and will pay a "competitive" price for them in auction.

I'm not comfortable with MJD or Peterson until well after where they will be drafted in snakes and only willing to pay pennies on the dollar for them in auctions.

 

[REDRUM26]

Why isnt Mcfadden in this short list... Hes never played more than 13 games and we are entering his 5th season.

 

[Ghost Rider]

The four RBs:- Maurice Jones-Drew- Ryan Mathews- Marshawn Lynch- Adrian Peterson

I want no part of any of these four. Holdouts scare me (they seem to almost always get hurt or not be as effective), so there goes MJD. AP is a beast, but I have a hard time believing he will return to form so quickly after such an injury, and he has been going for a lot in every auction, more than I will pay, so I won't have him. Mathews is too frustrating, especially since he seems to get dinged up a lot in games even when he does play, leaving you with almost nothing in your starting lineup.I am not sure Lynch will repeat what he did last year, and again, most are paying more for him than I will, so no go on him either for me.I suspect one or two of these guys will prove me wrong, but I have no idea which one, and I ain't paying a lot for all of them in various auctions to find out.

Other than Foster, McCoy and Rice all the RBs have some significant red flags or at least question marks. MJD and ADP have been very productive fantasy RBs their entire careers. Lynch was as good as anyone the second half last year and the offense in Seattle looks improved. I am not that big on Matthews but he has averaged 4.7 a carry for his career and can catch the ball in that offense(50 in 14 games). Sure they have issues, which is why you can get them later. But it is not like McFadden, Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Forte, Trent Richardson, S. Jackson, F. Jackson and Murray don't have issues.

I hear ya, and I agree, which is why I am not big on the RBs in the 5-15 range. I'd rather get one of the top guys and then a bunch of sleepers, or go with sleeper RBs across the board and load up on WRs and get one of the top TEs. I am not about overpaying for a RB this year.

 

[Cyclones]

The four RBs:- Maurice Jones-Drew- Ryan Mathews- Marshawn Lynch- Adrian Peterson

I want no part of any of these four. Holdouts scare me (they seem to almost always get hurt or not be as effective), so there goes MJD. AP is a beast, but I have a hard time believing he will return to form so quickly after such an injury, and he has been going for a lot in every auction, more than I will pay, so I won't have him. Mathews is too frustrating, especially since he seems to get dinged up a lot in games even when he does play, leaving you with almost nothing in your starting lineup.I am not sure Lynch will repeat what he did last year, and again, most are paying more for him than I will, so no go on him either for me.I suspect one or two of these guys will prove me wrong, but I have no idea which one, and I ain't paying a lot for all of them in various auctions to find out.

Other than Foster, McCoy and Rice all the RBs have some significant red flags or at least question marks. MJD and ADP have been very productive fantasy RBs their entire careers. Lynch was as good as anyone the second half last year and the offense in Seattle looks improved. I am not that big on Matthews but he has averaged 4.7 a carry for his career and can catch the ball in that offense(50 in 14 games). Sure they have issues, which is why you can get them later. But it is not like McFadden, Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Forte, Trent Richardson, S. Jackson, F. Jackson and Murray don't have issues.

I hear ya, and I agree, which is why I am not big on the RBs in the 5-15 range. I'd rather get one of the top guys and then a bunch of sleepers, or go with sleeper RBs across the board and load up on WRs and get one of the top TEs. I am not about overpaying for a RB this year.

The problem with the above (of course it's just my opinion) is that its very difficult to separate WRs after CJ. As a matter of preference I took Nelson/Nicks at the 3.10/4.01 turn, but I couldn't make a case for another WR at 2.01. Looking back, the shark move may have been Graham at that spot. We could all second guess our drafts forever though. We do 3 minute limits and I had a strategy played out that included taking either Brees/RB or McFadden/RB at 1.10 and 2.01. Before the draft there were only 5 guys I was sure would be off the board - Foster, Rodgers, Rice, McCoy, Calvin - so it threw me off when Calvin was still there, but had to take him and change directions. At no time had I considered Graham at 2.01 so it didn't enter my mind on draft night.

 

[Ghost Rider]

The four RBs:- Maurice Jones-Drew- Ryan Mathews- Marshawn Lynch- Adrian Peterson

I want no part of any of these four. Holdouts scare me (they seem to almost always get hurt or not be as effective), so there goes MJD. AP is a beast, but I have a hard time believing he will return to form so quickly after such an injury, and he has been going for a lot in every auction, more than I will pay, so I won't have him. Mathews is too frustrating, especially since he seems to get dinged up a lot in games even when he does play, leaving you with almost nothing in your starting lineup.I am not sure Lynch will repeat what he did last year, and again, most are paying more for him than I will, so no go on him either for me.I suspect one or two of these guys will prove me wrong, but I have no idea which one, and I ain't paying a lot for all of them in various auctions to find out.

Other than Foster, McCoy and Rice all the RBs have some significant red flags or at least question marks. MJD and ADP have been very productive fantasy RBs their entire careers. Lynch was as good as anyone the second half last year and the offense in Seattle looks improved. I am not that big on Matthews but he has averaged 4.7 a carry for his career and can catch the ball in that offense(50 in 14 games). Sure they have issues, which is why you can get them later. But it is not like McFadden, Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Forte, Trent Richardson, S. Jackson, F. Jackson and Murray don't have issues.

I hear ya, and I agree, which is why I am not big on the RBs in the 5-15 range. I'd rather get one of the top guys and then a bunch of sleepers, or go with sleeper RBs across the board and load up on WRs and get one of the top TEs. I am not about overpaying for a RB this year.

The problem with the above (of course it's just my opinion) is that its very difficult to separate WRs after CJ. As a matter of preference I took Nelson/Nicks at the 3.10/4.01 turn, but I couldn't make a case for another WR at 2.01. Looking back, the shark move may have been Graham at that spot. We could all second guess our drafts forever though. We do 3 minute limits and I had a strategy played out that included taking either Brees/RB or McFadden/RB at 1.10 and 2.01. Before the draft there were only 5 guys I was sure would be off the board - Foster, Rodgers, Rice, McCoy, Calvin - so it threw me off when Calvin was still there, but had to take him and change directions. At no time had I considered Graham at 2.01 so it didn't enter my mind on draft night.

Agreed with most of that. But I am doing mostly auctions this year, so I don't have to worry about overreaching for a RB or WR in a 2nd round. But for those doing drafts, it is definitely a mess.

 

[Cyclones]

I've always wanted to do an auction league but none of the long time leagues I play in are willing to switch it up. I admit that draft night is the best day of the football year, but I've always heard that auctions make it 5 times more fun.

 

[Judge Smails]

The four RBs:Maurice Jones-Drew: Break you as a late 1st round pick.Ryan Mathews: Make you in the early to mid 3rd. Marshawn Lynch: Make you in the early to mid 2nd.Adrian Peterson: Break you in the 2nd round.Mine:Fred Jackson: Make you in the late 2nd. Really, really make you in the 3rd.Doug Martin: Make you in the mid to late 3rd.DeAngelo Williams: Make you in the 8th or later.Trent Richardson: Break you in the 2nd.Michael Turner: Break you anywhere before the 5th round.

Man I hope you are right. I drafted in the 5 spot in a 12 team non PPR, started Calvin Johnson, then took Lynch, then took FJax in the 3rd.

 

[footballnerd]

Fred Jackson should be on this list

31 yrs old

Recovering from injury

Cj spiller

But

High powered offense

Huge number pace last yr

Superb in ppr

 

[bmsarvis]

I think richardson belongs in this discussion as well. Not sure where his adp is as of right now but he is my #2 rb on my dynasty team and i think hes possibly the number one on simeteams right now.

 

[bengalbuck]

I'm still all about Lynch. His suspension won't come this year if it comes at all. All it did was ensure you could get him in the 2nd. I'll still maybe draft him in the 1st so I can get AJ in the second, but here are my thoughts on him (replace "Flynn" with "Wilson"):

Lots of rubbish about Lynch mailing it in now that he's been paid, but I'm not buying it. At the moment, he's got an ADP of 16 (RB8). Considering last year he was saddled with a below average QB, an injury plagued O-line, and he missed 1 game yet he finished as RB5, I believe he presents great value in the 2nd round and I wouldn't hesitate to take him in the 1st if the other guys I like are gone.He managed 12 TDs last year on a poor offensive unit (23rd in points, 28th in yards) yet a lot of people are anticipating this number to decrease now that he's got a decent QB. Sure, there may be more passing TDs, but there will be more plays and more scoring opps. And why did Lynch score so many TDs? Because Pete trusts him at the goal line. I went and checked all his plays from 5 yards and less:1 yard line: TD, TD2 yard line: TD, TD3 yard line: 2yds, TD, TD, -4yds, 2 yds (one of 2 yds was a 4th-2 conversion)4 yard line: TD, -3yds, TD5 yard line: 3ydsThat account for 8 of his touchdowns. His others were 11, 15, 16, and 40 yards with a 20 yard reception.If this offense can get within the 5 yard line more often, which I think is a certainty, then I expect his scoring to increase.Additionally, with the departure of Forsett, there is a chance Lynch will improve upon his 28 receptions last year. He is a good blocker and he caught the same % of his targets as Forsett did last year. No need to bank on this, though. He is a value at RB8 even if he doesn't catch any passes.300 carries x 4.4 ypc = 1320 yds 15 TD, 55 targets x 67% = 37 rec x 7.0 ypr = 260 yds 0 TDI'm predicting 300 carries to be conservative, but he was averaging well over 20 carries a game when Seattle was not being blown out. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he puts up monster carry numbers this year (like Michael Turner in 2008) which allows him to slip into the top 3. I know, sounds like crazy talk, but if this line gels and they're able to plug it in at will like they did with Shaun Alexander then the sky is the limit for Lynch.Obviously a lot of Lynch's production depends on Flynn keeping the defense honest. He was seeing a lot of 8 in the box last year. If Flynn and Rice hit it off then Lynch could post his best ypc of his career this year. Combine that with the possibility of 20+ carries per game, 30-40 rec, and 15+ TD and you have a really, really high ceiling.

Good post. I'm coming around on Lynch and like him as a mid-2nd rounder (12 team PPR). I am a little worried about his back and the fact that Turbin has looked very good so far. Plus, I think he's more likely to finish with under 30 receptions. But, he should get a lot of rushes and should score 10+ TDs. That offense looks pretty solid. It sounds like the suspension is a longshot in terms of this season. He looks a bit like a 2009 or 2010 version of Michael Turner to me.Edit to add: Any concern that Russell Wilson vultures some TDs like Cam did to the Carolina RBs? I'm not expecting 14 obviously, but even 6 or so from down in close could really hurt Lynch...