4 RBs that could make or break you (1 Viewer)

[TheFootballJesus]

MJD just seems to me like a guy that's sure to break your team. In the three drafts I've participated in he's gone at the end of the first round. Even though I think he'll be back for the start of the season, I think he'll be eased back in. I think Jennings will get a substantial number of carries to start the season. And of course lengthy holdouts increases the risk of injury; and that really worries me in MJD's case- not just because he has a lot of miles on him, but because as recently as 2010 he had a knee operation because "the cartilage in his knee had completely eroded leading to a bone-on-bone scraping inside it". I wouldn't draft him in the 2nd or 3rd round in any of my leagues.

I think Peterson could justify his value, but he seems to go in the early 2nd round of every draft I'm in and I think that's his ceiling. How many running backs have been 1000 yard seasons coming off an ACL tear in the past decade? Just one- Jamal Lewis in 2002- and he tore his ACL at the beginning of the year, not in week 16 like AP. Peterson is a special talent and I could see him potentially returning to form by the end of the season but if the Vikings limit his touches and he starts off slow your fantasy team might not be in contention during the stretch run anyway (especially if you've invested a 2nd round pick in him).

Lynch and Mathews seem like good values to me right now. In Mathews' case, I'm a little biased- I just took him at 3.01 in a 14 team standard scoring league, but preseason reports indicated he was in the best shape of his life and a broken collarbone worries me a lot less than say a hamstring strain. I don't know if I believe he'll be back by week 1 like he says, but if he provides first round value from week 3 onwards I'd be ecstatic. I don't know how much I believe in Wilson after just one preseason game, but I'm a believer in Lynch's talent and think he'd be a solid RB1 and an excellent RB2. He's gone in the middle of the 2nd round in most of my drafts and that seems like an appropriate place for him.

 

[Judge Smails]

Fred Jackson should be on this list31 yrs oldRecovering from injuryCj spillerButHigh powered offenseHuge number pace last yrSuperb in ppr

I think if you take CJ Spiller later and lock up the Bills running attack you've put yourself in a very good situation. Spiller took off after FJax went down - tells me it's just a great offense for RB's. Either one will thrive.

 

[Imagine]

Based on current information, I'd have to rank them:LynchADPMatthewsMJDI wouldn't touch any of them until probably late 3rd round, but most will probably be drafted before then.

I'm not sure I'm buying into this, unless you provide alternatives for what you'd do. For example, if you are at the turn, say 1.12 and 2.01, and RBs Foster, Rice, McCoy, DMC, Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, DeMarco Murray, Steven Jackson and Jamaal Charles are gone, along with QB Rodgers, and WR Calvin, who are you taking? You really don't want to load up on WRs, because there are lots you can get at the 3/4 turn. You might want a QB, but say it's a 4 point per TD and 4 point per 100 yards league, non-PPR. You can grab Brady or Brees, but if you typically wait on QB, and are hoping for Ryan in the late 4th or 5th, maybe you don't want to go QB that early. I guess one answer will be to grab Graham and Gronk, but think about what your RBs will look like in that case. So I think that guys like ADP and Lynch, and even Mathews, start to look a little better.What do you think? Am I all wet here?

 

[Statorama]

Russell Wilson directed 7 drives for 6 sores and 1 missed field goal. I see opportunties for Lynch. Why no draft him?

Not to change topic... but,

THANKS SORES!

Laughed

 

[rascal]

And because of all of these risks some people are still using standard drafting strategies.

 

[Cyclones]

I may not be such a massive advocate for Lynch in a PPR, but non PPR, I can't think of a single good reason he isnt off the board in the first 15 picks. If he isn't, then you're in a league full of pole smokers.

 

[RandyDB]

This Draft was held last Saturday the 25th 12 team non-ppr

="01.11" Maurice Jones-Drew

="02.05" Adrian Peterson

="02.07" Marshawn Lynch

="02.10" Ryan Mathews

 

[Tanner9919]

The more I work on and tweak my own top 40-50 guys, the more I realize it is the same 4 RBs that I keep moving around the most.

Seriously everytime I look over my list and make adjustments, it is these same 4 RBs that give me a very hard time. Some people are avoiding all 4 of these (due to each of their respective concerns (injuries, holdout, suspension, etc)). But I think at some point, if enough people pass on them early in favor of the safer guy - eventually they can be big for you.

The four RBs:

- Maurice Jones-Drew

- Ryan Mathews

- Marshawn Lynch

- Adrian Peterson

I will assume since this is a FF Shark forum, that everyone knows the issues surrounding these four. So let's get right up to the point: where do you take them? Where do you finally get comfortable with them? Where have they been going in your drafts? (If you answer, please don't just say something like "3rd round in mine" - instead say "3rd round in a 10 team PPR league" - since that is a lot different than "3rd round in a 14 team non-PPR league."

The other not as obvious aspect about this is: if you dominate your league every yr - then you should feel more comfortable drafting these guys as you want them when they will be fully back into the swing of things (ie, your playoffs). If, however, you have a hard or very competitive league - you cannot just give up early season wins in anticipation of making up for them along the way. You need wins from the get-go, which is where these guys can hurt you. Especially if you start off with divisional games in your league.

So where do you like each of these 4? Where have they been going? And do you agree with where they are getting taken? Would you like to go back and try and get them before someone else? Would you like to go back and not select them at all? And if you haven't drafted yet, where will you target them? Or will you avoid them no matter what?

honestly, I wouldn't touch any of these Rb's..I'd rather have Gerhart over AP ( even if AP comes back, the number of big running plays over 20 yards has dropped from 22 in previous years, to just 7 big plays last season ,he has been slowing down even without the knee injury..)

Jennings over MJD, Fred Jackson over Lynch,and a bucketload of Rb's over Mathews ( was a big fan of his for the 2012 season ,but I've soured on him with the continuing injuries).if I'm drafting an oft-injured Rb, I'm taking DMC..

 

[Hear-the-Footsteps]

Update:

Had one of my draft's last night. 12 team, PPR. All 4 went in the 3rd round.

 

[FDC]

I think ADP is a steal in the 3rd

Am I crazy?

 

[cheese]

I think ADP is a steal in the 3rdAm I crazy?

I don't know if he's a steal, but he's not a bad pick there.I look at ADP like this. There is a good chance he performs in the RB6 to RB10 range. That is worth a 2nd generally.There is also a chance he struggles with the injury, but still puts up startable numbers.There is also a chance he is too hurt to be useful at all.The hard part is determining the percentages of each scenerio. I've gone back and forth on him, but I'm not sure I see a bargain in accepting the risk just to possibly get an extra round of value. Depends on the other options though, obviously.

 

[Zeff]

Based on current information, I'd have to rank them:LynchADPMatthewsMJDI wouldn't touch any of them until probably late 3rd round, but most will probably be drafted before then.

I'm not sure I'm buying into this, unless you provide alternatives for what you'd do. For example, if you are at the turn, say 1.12 and 2.01, and RBs Foster, Rice, McCoy, DMC, Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, DeMarco Murray, Steven Jackson and Jamaal Charles are gone, along with QB Rodgers, and WR Calvin, who are you taking? You really don't want to load up on WRs, because there are lots you can get at the 3/4 turn. You might want a QB, but say it's a 4 point per TD and 4 point per 100 yards league, non-PPR. You can grab Brady or Brees, but if you typically wait on QB, and are hoping for Ryan in the late 4th or 5th, maybe you don't want to go QB that early. I guess one answer will be to grab Graham and Gronk, but think about what your RBs will look like in that case. So I think that guys like ADP and Lynch, and even Mathews, start to look a little better.What do you think? Am I all wet here?

I openly mock anyone who doesn't take Brady, and then I counsel them to take any one of Graham, Gronk, Lynch, FJax, or Julio...whichever they value highest. For me, FJax. You don't like to have to reach up a round to get your guy, but when the draft falls in a way that skews values this badly, AND you think your guy is going to return first round value anyway, it's no big deal.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

The four RBs:- Maurice Jones-Drew- Ryan Mathews- Marshawn Lynch- Adrian PetersonSo where do you like each of these 4? Where have they been going? And do you agree with where they are getting taken? Would you like to go back and try and get them before someone else? Would you like to go back and not select them at all? And if you haven't drafted yet, where will you target them? Or will you avoid them no matter what?

I had a choice in the 3rd round (12 teams) of my recent $$ draft at 3.08 and SJAX available as well in a PPR league. I took Lynch, even though he has the whole back spasm thing. I think it's nothing a little rest can't help and the Seattle offense has looked really polished this preseason. I see Lynch as a scoring machine this year. I'm a little nervous about Lynch as my RB3 though going RB-RB-RB (McFadden, Sproles, Lynch), but I couldn't pass on him in the third. My WR's pretty much suck though to pick up Lynch (ouch!). The other 3 RB, my concerns:ADP sat out my championship game a couple years ago when he was "probable" all week long, so I feel I can't count on him playing thru pain. Mathews has the broken collarbone, which some say will heal soon and he won't miss much time. But I dunno...he leads with his shoulder, right? Maybe recurring injury risk? MJD, terrific value in the 3rd round. But I passed because I worry about an early season timeshare situation. I can't get to the playoffs unless I win the early season games. What good does it do me to have a stud RB in week 15 if I'm already eliminated?How do so many RB's like this fall to the 3rd round? Everyone went nuts picking over the WR tiers early and often.

 

[Cyclones]

The four RBs:

- Maurice Jones-Drew

- Ryan Mathews

- Marshawn Lynch

- Adrian Peterson

So where do you like each of these 4? Where have they been going? And do you agree with where they are getting taken? Would you like to go back and try and get them before someone else? Would you like to go back and not select them at all? And if you haven't drafted yet, where will you target them? Or will you avoid them no matter what?

I had a choice in the 3rd round (12 teams) of my recent $$ draft at 3.08 and SJAX available as well in a PPR league. I took Lynch, even though he has the whole back spasm thing. I think it's nothing a little rest can't help and the Seattle offense has looked really polished this preseason. I see Lynch as a scoring machine this year. I'm a little nervous about Lynch as my RB3 though going RB-RB-RB (McFadden, Sproles, Lynch), but I couldn't pass on him in the third. My WR's pretty much suck though to pick up Lynch (ouch!). The other 3 RB, my concerns:

ADP sat out my championship game a couple years ago when he was "probable" all week long, so I feel I can't count on him playing thru pain.

Mathews has the broken collarbone, which some say will heal soon and he won't miss much time. But I dunno...he leads with his shoulder, right? Maybe recurring injury risk?

MJD, terrific value in the 3rd round. But I passed because I worry about an early season timeshare situation. I can't get to the playoffs unless I win the early season games. What good does it do me to have a stud RB in week 15 if I'm already eliminated?

How do so many RB's like this fall to the 3rd round? Everyone went nuts picking over the WR tiers early and often.

Is the above sarcasm? You're worried about a guy as your RB3 who finished in the top 10 last year, and top 4 over the last 9 weeks?