A closer look at running back aging patterns (1 Viewer)

[Chase Stuart]

I looked at 36 of the best RBs and charted how their production declined from their peak levels. On average, they peaked at age 26, before steadily declining each year after that, with the biggest dropoff coming between ages 31 and 32.

You can read the full article, which does a quick review of each of the 36 players and has a graph, here: http://www.footballperspective.com/a-closer-look-at-running-back-aging-patterns/

Here's my conclusion:

Conclusion

So what can we make of this? There is no one age when all running backs drop off, or even an age where the majority of running backs drop off. That said, by the end of their age 29 season (or, if you prefer, by the time they hit 30), half of the running backs in this study were essentially washed up. Most had gradual declines, or a down season followed by a bounce-back year and then another decline, rather than a sudden collision with a mythical wall. But at age 31 or later, 42% of the running backs had at least one solid season.

I’m not sure if we can easily characterize the group of players that powered through the mythical 30-year-old wall. Tiki Barber and Priest Holmes did not get heavy workloads early in their career, but Corey Dillon and Jerome Bettis were featured starters for essentially their entire careers. Some lesser running backs like Terry Allen and Antowain Smith were able to maintain their production late in their careers, but Emmitt Smith and Curtis Martin had big years in their thirties, too.

With the benefit of hindsight, it’s easy to see that a player fell off at a certain age, but real life doesn’t afford us that luxury. After LaDainian Tomlinson gained just 730 yards on 3.3 yards per carry his final season in San Diego, who saw him rushing for 914 yards and 4.2 yards per carry in New York at the age of 31? Ricky Williams’ career looked over, but he rushed for 1,121 yards on 4.7 yards per carry with the 2009 Dolphins at age 32. Many thought Thomas Jones was about to hit the wall when he rushed for 1,119 yards on only 3.6 yards per carry with the Jets at age 29. That wouldn’t have been an unreasonable projection, but he rushed for 2700 yards over the next seasons with a healthy 4.4 yards per carry average.

We’re always looking for the signs, and often by the time we know a running back is washed up, it’s too late. Is it clear that age is an essential component in predicting future running back performance, as players at that position decline as a group pretty consistently after the age of 26.. But just because an individual running back reaches a certain age doesn’t mean the grim reaper is around the corner. I’m not comfortable projecting two years down the line for a player who is already 30, but I don’t think it’s all that risky expecting “one more year” out of a player. I’d keep doing that until he proves me wrong, rather than trying to guess the exact year he’ll fall off and risk missing several years of strong production.

Curious to see what the Pool has to think. Dynasty is a totally different game than redraft when it comes to aging patterns. But in redrafts, I don't think we need to be *that* afraid of taking on older running backs. I think it sticks in our head more when an older RB breaks down than when say, Jamaal Charles or Darren McFadden does. Anyway, you can click here for the full article, and curious to hear the Pool's thoughts.

 

[FF Ninja]

Good topic. For this year it is clearly affecting Michael Turner and Steven Jackson's ADP. Given Turner's 4.5 ypc last year and Jaquizz Rodger's 3.6 ypc, I think Turner's job will be secure and I think he'll do fine. I'm no scout/expert but I suspect he makes his yards from reading his blocks, powering through tackles, and vision/anticipation rather than his speed and quicks. Given Fisher's use of Eddie George back in the day, I feel pretty good about Jackson's production in 2012 even if he has slowed down a bit. I doubt either veteran blows away their ADP, but they look like guys who could give you that safe base while you mine for value later in the draft.

I plan to target other positions in rounds 2 and 3 of redraft this year, so I doubt either end up on my team, but I'd gladly snag either of them in an auction.

 

[butcher boy]

One aging guy I'm keeping an eye on is McGahee. He's coming off a decent year, and if Peyton is good enough to keep defenses honest, I think he can continue to put up numbers to make him a value at his current ADP.

 

[GroveDiesel]

I agree with you, especially in redraft and even in limited keeper leagues. Now, I think that it's maybe somewhat riskier than taking a younger RB so I tend to discount an older player's value a bit, but I won't just drop him a whole lot if his production has still been solid. I love to scoop up older running backs on a discount and being able to count on their solid production.

To me, guys that fit that bill for this year are:

Michael Turner

Frank Gore

Fred Jackson

and maybe an outside look at DeAngelo Williams.

Williams averaged 5.4 yards per carry last year, 970 total yards and had 7 TDs. Not bad for a #2RB or #3RB.

Michael Turner is 30 years old and there's lots of talk about it being a RBBC in Atlanta and possibly passing more, but Turner averaged 4.5 yards per carry last year, had 1510 total yards and 11 TDs. Those are very nice numbers.

A lot of people seem to want to write Gore off or just overlook him. And yeah, he has had quite a few injury problems in his past and is 29. But he had 1325 yards and 8 TDs. The 4.3ypc does worry me just a touch though. He also had quite a few games last year under 3ypc. So I'm not quite as high on him. He'd have to be my RB3 and even then I'd probably take him after guys like Turner and Williams.

And lastly, my guy, Fred Jackson. Jackson is the old man of the group at 31. He has low mileage compared to other RBs his age and his only real injury in his career came last year when he suffered a broken leg, an injury that is more of a freak injury than an indication of a body breaking down or an injury that could linger. He's an extremely elusive back that doesn't take a lot of big hits. Despite only playing in 10 games last year, Jackson put up 1376 yards and 6 TDs on a sterling 5.5ypc. Jackson's low ypc on his career is 4.2 the year before. He averages 4.65ypc for his 5 year career. Yeah, CJ Spiller looked great in relief of Jackson last year, but the Bills really do love Freddie and I fully expect him to put up another 1400 yards and 8-10TDs again with the 1400 yards being the baseline for his production. He is legitimately a guy that could put up 2000 total yards if he stays healthy IMO. And with his age, last year's injury, and Spiller, I think Jackson will probably be had at a pretty nice value. (Right now, Yahoo! has Jackson as the #19 composite ranking RB).

 

[Leroy Hoard]

One aging guy I'm keeping an eye on is McGahee. He's coming off a decent year, and if Peyton is good enough to keep defenses honest, I think he can continue to put up numbers to make him a value at his current ADP.

Yes, and decent TD potential with the GL hog gone @ QB & a guy who can better get him to the GL. Downside is if Peyton throws all the time in that spot.

 

[FF Ninja]

Good points, GroveDiesel, but my perception is that Gore, DeAngelo, and Fred Jackson saw hits to their value because of competition more than age.

I mean, DeAngelo is being drafted maybe 5 spots below where he finished last year, which is understandable because I think he finished like RB26 or something (non-PPR). He shows very little promise of exceeding that finish this year, so no one is excited about snagging a guy who shouldn't ever really be in your starting lineup except as a flex or bye play, and are more inclined to draft guys with some upside.

SF drafted Hunter last year, James this year, and added Jacobs in free agency. It sure looks like Gore will be losing some touches. He played all 16 games last year for the first time since 2006 and he finished RB12. With the anticipated loss of touches, I think his current ADP of RB19 is pretty well justified even if you don't take into account his history of injuries.

Spiller averaged 5.1 ypc as a starter in 6 games, including his first start against the tough Jets run D where he only mustered 19/55/0 (5.7 ypc w/o that game included). So I think his emergence is the primary cause for Jackson's value drop. That being said, Jackson was averaging 5.5 ypc so no one is saying he's not solid. He was getting 17 carries a game to Spiller's 2 carries a game before he got hurt. I don't think anyone here expects that trend to continue. RB19 seems like a big drop from a guy who was performing like a top 3 back at the time of injury, but what kind of split do you anticipate this year? I think 12/7 seems much more likely than 17/2. Maybe they squeeze in a few more rushes and make it 13/8. I think Jackson could outperfor his ADP with 200 carries, but it's not like he's going to be back in the top 5 with that kind of workload.

 

[Shutout]

this is a really interesting discussion to me. Two years ago, I gathered up a lot of data and started trying to formulize a way to find when RBs hit the wall. I ran numbers on close to 200 Rbs and started introducing all types of random variables that I just had a gut feeling on or someone suggested, trying to find a correlation.

of course, I've found nothing concrete enough to ever take over the fantasy RB world with my findings, but I do find a lot of potential when i start tweaking the formula in regards to studying:

-was the player an immediate starter vs. started later in their career?

-Did they ever suffer an injury that cost them 8+ games in a season?

-their workload of 275+ carries in one or more seasons.

-Where they big program or small program guys coming into the league?

-Where they on good or bad teams?

-which players tend to decline gradually vs. those that hit the proverbial "wall"?

And on and on and on...I've kicked this rock a lot.

I am currently tracking SJAX and MJD and Forte, using my latest formulas. I'm sure it won't happen but if you guys see SJAX hit his career wall at week 8 of this year, come talk to me; I've got a heck of a formula for ya! Basically, under three of the five formulas I'm currently using, SJAX is predicted to fall apart somewhere in November of this year.

Two things I've noticed strongly (and seems to support the OP's thought in one area), is that when RBS tend to get their starts late (not coming in right away as starters), they have a strong tendency to have three strong year, regardless of if they start at 25, 28, or whatever. Three strong years.

The other thing I ran into was that Curtis Martin has broken every formula I have ever put together. I can manipulate or back into variations to support what I know in hindsight, and then apply it and hit 90% across the board pretty easily. But I have yet to find a formula that explains his career. I have concluded that he workd for Skynet and was sent to us from different time.

Anyway, great topic and hopefully enough nuggets can be tossed onto this topic to give some of us that have been looking at it from various angles a few new perspectives to consider.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

this is a really interesting discussion to me. Two years ago, I gathered up a lot of data and started trying to formulize a way to find when RBs hit the wall. I ran numbers on close to 200 Rbs and started introducing all types of random variables that I just had a gut feeling on or someone suggested, trying to find a correlation.

of course, I've found nothing concrete enough to ever take over the fantasy RB world with my findings, but I do find a lot of potential when i start tweaking the formula in regards to studying:

-was the player an immediate starter vs. started later in their career?

-Did they ever suffer an injury that cost them 8+ games in a season?

-their workload of 275+ carries in one or more seasons.

-Where they big program or small program guys coming into the league?

-Where they on good or bad teams?

-which players tend to decline gradually vs. those that hit the proverbial "wall"?

And on and on and on...I've kicked this rock a lot.

I am currently tracking SJAX and MJD and Forte, using my latest formulas. I'm sure it won't happen but if you guys see SJAX hit his career wall at week 8 of this year, come talk to me; I've got a heck of a formula for ya! Basically, under three of the five formulas I'm currently using, SJAX is predicted to fall apart somewhere in November of this year.

Two things I've noticed strongly (and seems to support the OP's thought in one area), is that when RBS tend to get their starts late (not coming in right away as starters), they have a strong tendency to have three strong year, regardless of if they start at 25, 28, or whatever. Three strong years.

The other thing I ran into was that Curtis Martin has broken every formula I have ever put together. I can manipulate or back into variations to support what I know in hindsight, and then apply it and hit 90% across the board pretty easily. But I have yet to find a formula that explains his career. I have concluded that he workd for Skynet and was sent to us from different time.

Anyway, great topic and hopefully enough nuggets can be tossed onto this topic to give some of us that have been looking at it from various angles a few new perspectives to consider.

And that might explain why he was a 1st ballot.

 

[_lurker_]

Great thread.

Are you one of the mfl app devs?

 

[netnalp]

I recall an article (I think it was FBG's) that had the RB peak year at age 27 and a decline after that.

I wonder if the analysis showing age 26 as the peak now is mathematical (standard deviation, rounding, etc.) or if there are other variables that are causing the peak age to slowly decrease.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

when RBS tend to get their starts late (not coming in right away as starters), they have a strong tendency to have three strong year, regardless of if they start at 25, 28, or whatever. Three strong years.

Interesting stuff. Almost seems like "nfl years" are more important (up to a point) than actual age.

 

[netnalp]

John Clayton has a 150 age theory for Olines.

150 theory

 

[Chase Stuart]

I recall an article (I think it was FBG's) that had the RB peak year at age 27 and a decline after that. I wonder if the analysis showing age 26 as the peak now is mathematical (standard deviation, rounding, etc.) or if there are other variables that are causing the peak age to slowly decrease.

Important to remember about my article is that I'm tracking the same running backs over a period of time. The sample is not all that large -- 36 backs -- but I'd be surprised if the average RB peaked at 27. Remember, a lot of running backs are out of the league by then. The average 27-year-old RB in the NFL is likely more talented than the average 23-year-old back, simply because the bad young running backs haven't been weeded out yet.

 

[Tanner9919]

John Clayton has a 150 age theory for Olines.

150 theory

this is what makes the Shark Pool so special,posts like this! reading Clayton's article, Baltimore's O-line is beyond the 150 age theory, so, from a dynasty perspective, how will that affect Ray Rice's value?

as for the aging of RB's , I think we're all looking for a magic number that tells us when to jump ship on a guy, but quite often , a 30-something RB comes along to tear it up - TJ, C. Martin, Fred Jackson ( 2011), etc..

I think it comes down to opportunity, health and quality of O-line, offensive coaching philosophy, career workload for player, etc, and these are every bit as important in determining the drop-off as the player's age is..

 

[meatwad1]

I agree with you, especially in redraft and even in limited keeper leagues. Now, I think that it's maybe somewhat riskier than taking a younger RB so I tend to discount an older player's value a bit, but I won't just drop him a whole lot if his production has still been solid. I love to scoop up older running backs on a discount and being able to count on their solid production. To me, guys that fit that bill for this year are:Michael TurnerFrank GoreFred Jacksonand maybe an outside look at DeAngelo Williams. Williams averaged 5.4 yards per carry last year, 970 total yards and had 7 TDs. Not bad for a #2RB or #3RB. Michael Turner is 30 years old and there's lots of talk about it being a RBBC in Atlanta and possibly passing more, but Turner averaged 4.5 yards per carry last year, had 1510 total yards and 11 TDs. Those are very nice numbers.A lot of people seem to want to write Gore off or just overlook him. And yeah, he has had quite a few injury problems in his past and is 29. But he had 1325 yards and 8 TDs. The 4.3ypc does worry me just a touch though. He also had quite a few games last year under 3ypc. So I'm not quite as high on him. He'd have to be my RB3 and even then I'd probably take him after guys like Turner and Williams.And lastly, my guy, Fred Jackson. Jackson is the old man of the group at 31. He has low mileage compared to other RBs his age and his only real injury in his career came last year when he suffered a broken leg, an injury that is more of a freak injury than an indication of a body breaking down or an injury that could linger. He's an extremely elusive back that doesn't take a lot of big hits. Despite only playing in 10 games last year, Jackson put up 1376 yards and 6 TDs on a sterling 5.5ypc. Jackson's low ypc on his career is 4.2 the year before. He averages 4.65ypc for his 5 year career. Yeah, CJ Spiller looked great in relief of Jackson last year, but the Bills really do love Freddie and I fully expect him to put up another 1400 yards and 8-10TDs again with the 1400 yards being the baseline for his production. He is legitimately a guy that could put up 2000 total yards if he stays healthy IMO. And with his age, last year's injury, and Spiller, I think Jackson will probably be had at a pretty nice value. (Right now, Yahoo! has Jackson as the #19 composite ranking RB).

It depends on what your definition of 'discount' is. If discount means burning a 4th or a 5th round pick, I will say you are taking a big risk and that is not a discount. Older rbs have a tendency to just stop working right when you least expect it. I would be looking at any of those guys in the 6th to 9th rounds, but realistically these are all guys, based on last year's production, that are going to go in the 3rd through 5th rounds. One or two of them will be season killers for someone.

 

[az_prof]

I agree with you, especially in redraft and even in limited keeper leagues. Now, I think that it's maybe somewhat riskier than taking a younger RB so I tend to discount an older player's value a bit, but I won't just drop him a whole lot if his production has still been solid. I love to scoop up older running backs on a discount and being able to count on their solid production. To me, guys that fit that bill for this year are:Michael TurnerFrank GoreFred Jacksonand maybe an outside look at DeAngelo Williams. Williams averaged 5.4 yards per carry last year, 970 total yards and had 7 TDs. Not bad for a #2RB or #3RB. Michael Turner is 30 years old and there's lots of talk about it being a RBBC in Atlanta and possibly passing more, but Turner averaged 4.5 yards per carry last year, had 1510 total yards and 11 TDs. Those are very nice numbers.A lot of people seem to want to write Gore off or just overlook him. And yeah, he has had quite a few injury problems in his past and is 29. But he had 1325 yards and 8 TDs. The 4.3ypc does worry me just a touch though. He also had quite a few games last year under 3ypc. So I'm not quite as high on him. He'd have to be my RB3 and even then I'd probably take him after guys like Turner and Williams.And lastly, my guy, Fred Jackson. Jackson is the old man of the group at 31. He has low mileage compared to other RBs his age and his only real injury in his career came last year when he suffered a broken leg, an injury that is more of a freak injury than an indication of a body breaking down or an injury that could linger. He's an extremely elusive back that doesn't take a lot of big hits. Despite only playing in 10 games last year, Jackson put up 1376 yards and 6 TDs on a sterling 5.5ypc. Jackson's low ypc on his career is 4.2 the year before. He averages 4.65ypc for his 5 year career. Yeah, CJ Spiller looked great in relief of Jackson last year, but the Bills really do love Freddie and I fully expect him to put up another 1400 yards and 8-10TDs again with the 1400 yards being the baseline for his production. He is legitimately a guy that could put up 2000 total yards if he stays healthy IMO. And with his age, last year's injury, and Spiller, I think Jackson will probably be had at a pretty nice value. (Right now, Yahoo! has Jackson as the #19 composite ranking RB).

It depends on what your definition of 'discount' is. If discount means burning a 4th or a 5th round pick, I will say you are taking a big risk and that is not a discount. Older rbs have a tendency to just stop working right when you least expect it. I would be looking at any of those guys in the 6th to 9th rounds, but realistically these are all guys, based on last year's production, that are going to go in the 3rd through 5th rounds. One or two of them will be season killers for someone.

We all know the wheel can fall off an older back suddenly, but don't forget that there is no guarantee a young rookie will produce either. Many rookies fail to live up to expectations. And young backs who have a history of injury ala Kevin Smith, Ronnie Brown, or more recently, Darren McFadden, are a risk too. Taking a vet who has proven he can play and who has by and large managed to stay healthy is a good risk in the middle rounds.

 

[beerbarron]

I agree with you, especially in redraft and even in limited keeper leagues. Now, I think that it's maybe somewhat riskier than taking a younger RB so I tend to discount an older player's value a bit, but I won't just drop him a whole lot if his production has still been solid. I love to scoop up older running backs on a discount and being able to count on their solid production. To me, guys that fit that bill for this year are:Michael TurnerFrank GoreFred Jacksonand maybe an outside look at DeAngelo Williams. Williams averaged 5.4 yards per carry last year, 970 total yards and had 7 TDs. Not bad for a #2RB or #3RB. Michael Turner is 30 years old and there's lots of talk about it being a RBBC in Atlanta and possibly passing more, but Turner averaged 4.5 yards per carry last year, had 1510 total yards and 11 TDs. Those are very nice numbers.A lot of people seem to want to write Gore off or just overlook him. And yeah, he has had quite a few injury problems in his past and is 29. But he had 1325 yards and 8 TDs. The 4.3ypc does worry me just a touch though. He also had quite a few games last year under 3ypc. So I'm not quite as high on him. He'd have to be my RB3 and even then I'd probably take him after guys like Turner and Williams.And lastly, my guy, Fred Jackson. Jackson is the old man of the group at 31. He has low mileage compared to other RBs his age and his only real injury in his career came last year when he suffered a broken leg, an injury that is more of a freak injury than an indication of a body breaking down or an injury that could linger. He's an extremely elusive back that doesn't take a lot of big hits. Despite only playing in 10 games last year, Jackson put up 1376 yards and 6 TDs on a sterling 5.5ypc. Jackson's low ypc on his career is 4.2 the year before. He averages 4.65ypc for his 5 year career. Yeah, CJ Spiller looked great in relief of Jackson last year, but the Bills really do love Freddie and I fully expect him to put up another 1400 yards and 8-10TDs again with the 1400 yards being the baseline for his production. He is legitimately a guy that could put up 2000 total yards if he stays healthy IMO. And with his age, last year's injury, and Spiller, I think Jackson will probably be had at a pretty nice value. (Right now, Yahoo! has Jackson as the #19 composite ranking RB).

It depends on what your definition of 'discount' is. If discount means burning a 4th or a 5th round pick, I will say you are taking a big risk and that is not a discount. Older rbs have a tendency to just stop working right when you least expect it. I would be looking at any of those guys in the 6th to 9th rounds, but realistically these are all guys, based on last year's production, that are going to go in the 3rd through 5th rounds. One or two of them will be season killers for someone.

We all know the wheel can fall off an older back suddenly, but don't forget that there is no guarantee a young rookie will produce either. Many rookies fail to live up to expectations. And young backs who have a history of injury ala Kevin Smith, Ronnie Brown, or more recently, Darren McFadden, are a risk too. Taking a vet who has proven he can play and who has by and large managed to stay healthy is a good risk in the middle rounds.

Great thread.. how are RB carries used in the formula.. as that seems to have a strong impact on the longevity of rb's FF career length as well...

 

[az_prof]

I agree with you, especially in redraft and even in limited keeper leagues. Now, I think that it's maybe somewhat riskier than taking a younger RB so I tend to discount an older player's value a bit, but I won't just drop him a whole lot if his production has still been solid. I love to scoop up older running backs on a discount and being able to count on their solid production. To me, guys that fit that bill for this year are:Michael TurnerFrank GoreFred Jacksonand maybe an outside look at DeAngelo Williams. Williams averaged 5.4 yards per carry last year, 970 total yards and had 7 TDs. Not bad for a #2RB or #3RB. Michael Turner is 30 years old and there's lots of talk about it being a RBBC in Atlanta and possibly passing more, but Turner averaged 4.5 yards per carry last year, had 1510 total yards and 11 TDs. Those are very nice numbers.A lot of people seem to want to write Gore off or just overlook him. And yeah, he has had quite a few injury problems in his past and is 29. But he had 1325 yards and 8 TDs. The 4.3ypc does worry me just a touch though. He also had quite a few games last year under 3ypc. So I'm not quite as high on him. He'd have to be my RB3 and even then I'd probably take him after guys like Turner and Williams.And lastly, my guy, Fred Jackson. Jackson is the old man of the group at 31. He has low mileage compared to other RBs his age and his only real injury in his career came last year when he suffered a broken leg, an injury that is more of a freak injury than an indication of a body breaking down or an injury that could linger. He's an extremely elusive back that doesn't take a lot of big hits. Despite only playing in 10 games last year, Jackson put up 1376 yards and 6 TDs on a sterling 5.5ypc. Jackson's low ypc on his career is 4.2 the year before. He averages 4.65ypc for his 5 year career. Yeah, CJ Spiller looked great in relief of Jackson last year, but the Bills really do love Freddie and I fully expect him to put up another 1400 yards and 8-10TDs again with the 1400 yards being the baseline for his production. He is legitimately a guy that could put up 2000 total yards if he stays healthy IMO. And with his age, last year's injury, and Spiller, I think Jackson will probably be had at a pretty nice value. (Right now, Yahoo! has Jackson as the #19 composite ranking RB).

It depends on what your definition of 'discount' is. If discount means burning a 4th or a 5th round pick, I will say you are taking a big risk and that is not a discount. Older rbs have a tendency to just stop working right when you least expect it. I would be looking at any of those guys in the 6th to 9th rounds, but realistically these are all guys, based on last year's production, that are going to go in the 3rd through 5th rounds. One or two of them will be season killers for someone.

We all know the wheel can fall off an older back suddenly, but don't forget that there is no guarantee a young rookie will produce either. Many rookies fail to live up to expectations and are typically expensive relative to production. And young backs who have a history of injury ala Kevin Smith, Ronnie Brown, or more recently, Darren McFadden, are a risk too. Taking a vet who has proven he can play and who has by and large managed to stay healthy is a good risk in the middle rounds.There are only three sure things and they will all go early in first round: Rice, Foster and McCoy. Most of the rest have some question: age (Gore, Turner, Jackson, SJax), time share (Williams, Stewart), coming off an injury or unable to stay healthy (Dmac; MJD, Charles, ADP, Bradshaw, Matthews, Murray, Forte), or they are an unproven rookie (Richardson, Martin). There is a small sub-set of guys who don't fit into any of these categories and I wonder if they aren't a good value? Lynch and Chris Johnson. They are both still under age 28. They have both been effective at one time or another. They are both healthy. They are both the clear workhorse in their backfield. Two guys you could get later as a RB2 who don't fit any of the categories exactly are Reggie Bush and Shonn Greene. I don't like either of these guys but it seems very likely they will both put up good numbers in 2012.Two other guys I like who are less proven, but who are starters, who have proven they can play some (but haven't proven they can be a featured back for a full season), are still young, and look to get a chance to be the starter for their teams are Donald Brown and Isaac Redman. These guys are really under valued when you consider the opportunity they have in 2012.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Jones-Drew is 27, coming off a big year despite a poor situation, and has played in 93/96 games since entering the league. He's every bit as safe as the guys in front of him IMO.

 

[az_prof]

Jones-Drew is 27, coming off a big year despite a poor situation, and has played in 93/96 games since entering the league. He's every bit as safe as the guys in front of him IMO.

Doesn't he have bone on bone in his knee?http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/07/07/despite-knee-surgery-maurice-jones-drew-still-wants-to-carry-the-load/And last year he had the second most carries for any back since 2008. That sounds like a dangerous combination for a 27 year old back.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Jones-Drew is 27, coming off a big year despite a poor situation, and has played in 93/96 games since entering the league. He's every bit as safe as the guys in front of him IMO.

Doesn't he have bone on bone in his knee?http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/07/07/despite-knee-surgery-maurice-jones-drew-still-wants-to-carry-the-load/And last year he had the second most carries for any back since 2008. That sounds like a dangerous combination for a 27 year old back.

Always thought that 'bone' stuff was overhyped since whatever the problem was it was known at the beginning of 2010 and he played 14 games before they shut him down. So he only missed two games at the end of 2010, and played all 16 last year -- leading the league in rushing. Doesn't sound like a chronic or serious problem to me. If you could land him without giving up a stud in return I think he's a nice buy. Should get a good/great performer for 3-4 years. Maybe more if you're lucky.

 

[netnalp]

This might be the article that put age 27 in my head. I'm not sure though, because in 2000 I don't think I was visiting Pro-Football Reference. I believe I was only visiting FBG and maybe Football Die Hards at that time.

PFR

This suggests a range of 24-27.

Examining the Running Back Rule of Thumb

This suggests the peak is age 25:

Double-edged sword

Older Chase thread to compare to the new data.

Running backs and age 2009

This seems to support age 26.

Fantasy Football Drafting Analysis

 

[Tau837]

Jones-Drew is 27, coming off a big year despite a poor situation, and has played in 93/96 games since entering the league. He's every bit as safe as the guys in front of him IMO.

Doesn't he have bone on bone in his knee?http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/07/07/despite-knee-surgery-maurice-jones-drew-still-wants-to-carry-the-load/And last year he had the second most carries for any back since 2008. That sounds like a dangerous combination for a 27 year old back.

MJD is on my do not draft list, at least based on where I expect I'd have to take him. I realize that means I could miss out on a big season, and I'm fine with that.

 

[Chase Stuart]

This might be the article that put age 27 in my head. I'm not sure though, because in 2000 I don't think I was visiting Pro-Football Reference. I believe I was only visiting FBG and maybe Football Die Hards at that time.

PFR

This suggests a range of 24-27.

Examining the Running Back Rule of Thumb

This suggests the peak is age 25:

Double-edged sword

Older Chase thread to compare to the new data.

Running backs and age 2009

This seems to support age 26.

Fantasy Football Drafting Analysis

Good stuff. I don't remember writing that post in the Pool, but I think it reinforces yesterday's article.

 

[bagger]

i dont think this analysis goes deep enough. its one thing to say x% of rbs have good years post age 30, its quite another when you overlay their adp and see what value you are getting in that you often have to overpay, and while rb x may put in a top 15 season, if you have to draft him 1-3 there was probably a better pick for you.

other than tiki and cmart, most older rbs were not worth the value you can get them at (t jones a couple years back is a good example but that was more of overvaluing shonn green than anything else).

 

[ZWK]

I've been doing some similar analyses (see this post), looking at every RB who entered the league 1983-2003 and had a 50+ VBD season to see what they did over the rest of their career. I'll call 50+ VBD an "RB1 season", since about 12 RBs get it per year.

Here is one way of looking at the data:

81% of the RBs who had a RB1 season at age 22 had at least one more RB1 season in their career (13/16), and 88% had at least one more season as a fantasy starter (any VBD). When you look at older RBs, that number gets a lot lower. In table form:

Percent of RB1s at that age who have another RB1 season

Age 22: 81% (13/16) RB1, 88% starter

Age 23: 63% (15/24) RB1, 92% starter

Age 24: 68% (26/38) RB1, 84% starter

Age 25: 73% (24/33) RB1, 100% starter

Age 26: 73% (24/33) RB1, 85% starter

Age 27: 68% (23/34) RB1, 76% starter

Age 28: 57% (13/23) RB1, 74% starter

Age 29: 38% (6/16) RB1, 69% starter

Age 30: 25% (3/12) RB1, 75% starter

Age 31 is 0/4, which is a small sample size.

Young RB1s have about a 70% chance of being a RB1 again, and that stays pretty steady through age 27 (RBs going into their age 28 season). You should start to worry a little more about a RB coming off a strong year if he's going into his age 29 season (that success rate drops to 57%) and a lot more about a RB who's going to be in his 30s (where it's 38% and then 25%). A lot of older RBs slow down gradually & still have an RB2 season in them before they go, but it's rare for them to put up RB1 numbers (which you can also see just by looking at the shrinking denominators).

 

[Kleck]

Good read, Chase. I remember your previous posts on the topic and would agree that they do reinforce each other.

I also liked your article on Forte being Elite. Kind of goes along with this article since he is in his "peak" range (doesn't turn 27 until Dec 10).

 

[freshly_shorn]

I recall an article (I think it was FBG's) that had the RB peak year at age 27 and a decline after that. I wonder if the analysis showing age 26 as the peak now is mathematical (standard deviation, rounding, etc.) or if there are other variables that are causing the peak age to slowly decrease.

I did the one on the 'Running Back Rule of Thumb' a few years back. The peak was indeed at 26-27, with a steep drop-off at 30 and beyond, of RBs that made the Top 24 in fantasy. But a more telling number is years of experience (which I suspect would be closely tied to carries, too)- after 6 years, the number of Top 24 seasons PLUMMETS. So 'ware the 7+ year running back, especially ones that have been heavily used!

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I've been doing some similar analyses (see this post), looking at every RB who entered the league 1983-2003 and had a 50+ VBD season to see what they did over the rest of their career. I'll call 50+ VBD an "RB1 season", since about 12 RBs get it per year.

Here is one way of looking at the data:

81% of the RBs who had a RB1 season at age 22 had at least one more RB1 season in their career (13/16), and 88% had at least one more season as a fantasy starter (any VBD). When you look at older RBs, that number gets a lot lower. In table form:

Percent of RB1s at that age who have another RB1 season

Age 22: 81% (13/16) RB1, 88% starter

Age 23: 63% (15/24) RB1, 92% starter

Age 24: 68% (26/38) RB1, 84% starter

Age 25: 73% (24/33) RB1, 100% starter

Age 26: 73% (24/33) RB1, 85% starter

Age 27: 68% (23/34) RB1, 76% starter

Age 28: 57% (13/23) RB1, 74% starter

Age 29: 38% (6/16) RB1, 69% starter

Age 30: 25% (3/12) RB1, 75% starter

Age 31 is 0/4, which is a small sample size.

Young RB1s have about a 70% chance of being a RB1 again, and that stays pretty steady through age 27 (RBs going into their age 28 season). You should start to worry a little more about a RB coming off a strong year if he's going into his age 29 season (that success rate drops to 57%) and a lot more about a RB who's going to be in his 30s (where it's 38% and then 25%). A lot of older RBs slow down gradually & still have an RB2 season in them before they go, but it's rare for them to put up RB1 numbers (which you can also see just by looking at the shrinking denominators).

I'm a little confused by this.this tracks the success rate of a rb1 putting up another rb1 season anytime, or in season n+1?

because it sounds like it's the former, which would seem kind of pointless.

also, RE: OP , I'm very skeptical that a guy's birthday falling in august vs november has any meaningful impact on his production.

 

[ZWK]

I've been doing some similar analyses (see this post), looking at every RB who entered the league 1983-2003 and had a 50+ VBD season to see what they did over the rest of their career. I'll call 50+ VBD an "RB1 season", since about 12 RBs get it per year.

Here is one way of looking at the data:

81% of the RBs who had a RB1 season at age 22 had at least one more RB1 season in their career (13/16), and 88% had at least one more season as a fantasy starter (any VBD). When you look at older RBs, that number gets a lot lower. In table form:

Percent of RB1s at that age who have another RB1 season

Age 22: 81% (13/16) RB1, 88% starter

Age 23: 63% (15/24) RB1, 92% starter

Age 24: 68% (26/38) RB1, 84% starter

Age 25: 73% (24/33) RB1, 100% starter

Age 26: 73% (24/33) RB1, 85% starter

Age 27: 68% (23/34) RB1, 76% starter

Age 28: 57% (13/23) RB1, 74% starter

Age 29: 38% (6/16) RB1, 69% starter

Age 30: 25% (3/12) RB1, 75% starter

Age 31 is 0/4, which is a small sample size.

Young RB1s have about a 70% chance of being a RB1 again, and that stays pretty steady through age 27 (RBs going into their age 28 season). You should start to worry a little more about a RB coming off a strong year if he's going into his age 29 season (that success rate drops to 57%) and a lot more about a RB who's going to be in his 30s (where it's 38% and then 25%). A lot of older RBs slow down gradually & still have an RB2 season in them before they go, but it's rare for them to put up RB1 numbers (which you can also see just by looking at the shrinking denominators).

I'm a little confused by this.this tracks the success rate of a rb1 putting up another rb1 season anytime, or in season n+1?

because it sounds like it's the former, which would seem kind of pointless.

also, RE: OP , I'm very skeptical that a guy's birthday falling in august vs november has any meaningful impact on his production.

It is anytime, since I was thinking dynasty when I did the analysis. You're right that looking at season n+1 would be better for this - I didn't think I had those numbers ready but it turns out I do. So here they are. Of RBs who were a RB1 at:Age 22: 38% were RB1 at age 23

Age 23: 46% were RB1 at age 24

Age 24: 47% were RB1 at age 25

Age 25: 64% were RB1 at age 26

Age 26: 64% were RB1 at age 27

Age 27: 41% were RB1 at age 28

Age 28: 43% were RB1 at age 29

Age 29: 38% were RB1 at age 30

Age 30: 25% were RB1 at age 31

Which is interesting - it's relatively flat except for a brief mid-career spike for RBs going into their age 26 or 27 season. Some hints of a late-career dropoff, but mostly not until age 31.

 

[Shutout]

this is a really interesting discussion to me. Two years ago, I gathered up a lot of data and started trying to formulize a way to find when RBs hit the wall. I ran numbers on close to 200 Rbs and started introducing all types of random variables that I just had a gut feeling on or someone suggested, trying to find a correlation.

of course, I've found nothing concrete enough to ever take over the fantasy RB world with my findings, but I do find a lot of potential when i start tweaking the formula in regards to studying:

-was the player an immediate starter vs. started later in their career?

-Did they ever suffer an injury that cost them 8+ games in a season?

-their workload of 275+ carries in one or more seasons.

-Where they big program or small program guys coming into the league?

-Where they on good or bad teams?

-which players tend to decline gradually vs. those that hit the proverbial "wall"?

And on and on and on...I've kicked this rock a lot.

I am currently tracking SJAX and MJD and Forte, using my latest formulas. I'm sure it won't happen but if you guys see SJAX hit his career wall at week 8 of this year, come talk to me; I've got a heck of a formula for ya! Basically, under three of the five formulas I'm currently using, SJAX is predicted to fall apart somewhere in November of this year.

Two things I've noticed strongly (and seems to support the OP's thought in one area), is that when RBS tend to get their starts late (not coming in right away as starters), they have a strong tendency to have three strong year, regardless of if they start at 25, 28, or whatever. Three strong years.

The other thing I ran into was that Curtis Martin has broken every formula I have ever put together. I can manipulate or back into variations to support what I know in hindsight, and then apply it and hit 90% across the board pretty easily. But I have yet to find a formula that explains his career. I have concluded that he workd for Skynet and was sent to us from different time.

Anyway, great topic and hopefully enough nuggets can be tossed onto this topic to give some of us that have been looking at it from various angles a few new perspectives to consider.

Bumping this today since there seems to be a lot of chatter about SJAX and a few RBs slowing down. Wanted to see if anyone's info since the time this post came out has changed.For me, (and I'm sure its coincidence), the production on a handful of players is following the forecast. I removed MJD due to his holdout and introduced a new variable to factor but its really hard to even try to predict because so few top RBS ever truly are in this situation. FWIW, it actually didn't move his predicted falloff point much at all.

Anyone else still working on these scenarios?

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I’m not comfortable projecting two years down the line for a player who is already 30, but I don’t think it’s all that risky expecting “one more year” out of a player. I’d keep doing that until he proves me wrong, rather than trying to guess the exact year he’ll fall off and risk missing several years of strong production.

This is my approach now. You've got people saying sell all RBs -- even the great ones -- at 26 'before their value falls'. Which is true -- trade value for these guys falls around 26. But as the article and the data shows you're going to miss out on several good years, on average, if you do that. So it makes more sense to just hold your talented RBs (I'm not talking Shonn Greene or James Starks here) until the wheels fall off. In start 24 or start 28 RB leagues they have a ton of value even if they're RB 20-something. And since you can't get that value back in most cases you're better off sticking with them. I want rosters with maximum VBD, not maximum trade value and there will always be prospects that blossom into middling talents or who show enough promise to use for trading.