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A Lesson in Risk Managment Strategy (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter LHUCKS
- Start date
aDingoAteMyBaby
Footballguy
The larger the league, the more you need a "sure thing" with that #1 pick. There is less opportunity to recover from a risky pick when fewer "consistant production players" are available between each pick.
The alternative to changing strategy with the first pick though, is mitigating that risk later in the draft by picking up hand-cuff players.
The alternative to changing strategy with the first pick though, is mitigating that risk later in the draft by picking up hand-cuff players.
John Mamula
Moderator
No. It comes down to projections and ADP and how to maximize value throughout the draft through inefficiences of other drafters.
(League) size doesn't matter.
(League) size doesn't matter.
perry147
Footballguy
LT would be the safer choice this year then LJ and in a larger league you need to minimize risk because your next pick is so far away. But the real statagy in larger leagues is in the tiering of the players and getting those players whose value is percieved to be low but their risk is less on their tier.
jurb26
Footballguy
I'm not buying that you should change the #1 overall pick based on it either, but I can undertand the arguement. The reason that these guys are all porbable #1 overalls is because they are both studly and safe. If they were just one of the 2, they would be tier 2 players. I think this applies much better to the next group of player, or like someone already stated the middle picks and beyond.
John Mamula
Moderator
they are annual totals (they have to be in order to preserve accuracy).ppg is a huge concept i take into account for, especially a backup for someone who may "split" time but will only do so via an injury or the starter getting pulled. they are much more valuable than someone with identical or even higher stats who splits time throughout the season.
player reliability is incorporated into my projections.
John Mamula
Moderator
Define injury.Larry Johnson:
+--------------------------+-------------------------+ | Rushing | Receiving |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 2003 kan | 6 | 20 85 4.2 1 | 1 2 2.0 0 || 2004 kan | 10 | 120 581 4.8 9 | 22 278 12.6 2 || 2005 kan | 16 | 336 1750 5.2 20 | 33 343 10.4 1 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| TOTAL | 32 | 476 2416 5.1 30 | 56 623 11.1 3 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+Shaun Alexander:
Code:
+--------------------------+-------------------------+ | Rushing | Receiving |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 2000 sea | 16 | 64 313 4.9 2 | 5 41 8.2 0 || 2001 sea | 16 | 309 1318 4.3 14 | 44 343 7.8 2 || 2002 sea | 16 | 295 1175 4.0 16 | 59 460 7.8 2 || 2003 sea | 16 | 326 1435 4.4 14 | 42 295 7.0 2 || 2004 sea | 16 | 353 1696 4.8 16 | 23 170 7.4 4 || 2005 sea | 16 | 370 1880 5.1 27 | 15 78 5.2 1 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| TOTAL | 96 | 1717 7817 4.6 89 | 188 1387 7.4 11 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
radballs
Footballguy
I could completely understand and maybe even agree with the argument that in a 14 team league vs. a 10 team league you will be more risk averse with that first pick. However, in 1 ppr leagues, right now I have all 3 of the top guys in their own respective tier and they're relatively far apart to where it would not change my decision between either league. I have Larry Johnson, then LaDainian Tomlinson, and then Shaun Alexander. The three of them might be slightly closer bunched together in a 14 team league, but not enough of a difference to change who I would pick at each spot.
jurb26
Footballguy
Well, I had SA ranked #1 overall because quite simply I saw him scoring the most points. Had LJ not been behind Holmes, then I would have had him scoring the most points and thus ranked him #1. I don't really think anyone intuitively ranks guys they perceive to be injury risks that high, so I think it’s a moot point.
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jurb26 makes a good point. But if you are pulling the trigger based on actual results rather than on your own prediction, then yes; I'd say that Larry Johnson is more likely to avoid injury than Shaun Alexander. Mostly because he's younger, and I suspect that old guys tend to miss more games due to injury than young guys do.The other factors that I suspect are relevant to predicting injuries -- e.g., number of expected carries -- are similar for Johnson and Alexander. So I think age is probably the main thing that sets them apart.
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John Mamula
Moderator
People didn't rank Holmes that high last year?You forget quickly.
radballs
Footballguy
That and the fact that Alexander lost one of the key cogs in his offensive line. One could argue that he carries more risk because Hutch is gone. LT2 also has the issue with a second year QB starting. Factoring both of those situations could lead one to believe that LJ also has the least amount of risk despite the fact that he hasn't played a full 16 game schedule yet.
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I meant only with respect to predicting injuries. I don't think losing Steve Hutchinson makes Alexander more of an injury risk.It hurts him overall, but I was answering only the injury question.
John Mamula
Moderator
It depends on how heavily you attribute the various types of risk. To me I would rather have SA given his repeated performances than someone who has yet to repeat a full load all year long.SA is getting to the cusp of bumping him down though. After another 1 or 2 years I will be off the SA bandwagon, much like I am jumping off the Tiki wagon this year after carrying the torch for so long. I always like to be one year early than one year late if I am going to miss.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
This answer I can live with... if you're projecting seperate tiers and you believe the injury risk is relatively the same(both of which I disagree with) then you wouldn't change your rankings.This almost never happens for me...risk plays a much larger role in my rankings/projections than it does for almost every single expert I've seen.
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John Mamula
Moderator
Quite honestly, I never saw it that way. I always was very comfortable grabbing Tiki in the late first. The fact that he is/will be 31 this year and is coming off a 350+ carry season (his most ever) I am really wary of his repeatability of last year's performance.Like Manning the year before, when someone comes off a watershed season, I typically like to revert some of those stats back to the mean to be conservative. I still have Tiki #9 in a PPR league but he'll be grabbed well before that as his ADP is 1.05.
John Mamula
Moderator
Not only do they miss out on Tiki, they Draft Peyton Manning instead hoping for 49 TDs or they draft Culpepper expecting similar numbers after Moss is gone.
The Shark Pool went insane and was a great example of how groupthink can take a hold of a lot of people at once going with the flow.It was amazing at WCOFF last year watching that extra stud RB slide as people grabbed Peyton in the mid 1st.
There were even some staff here that were defending that ADP but hopefully they have been treated with good medication since.
Family Matters
Footballguy
You guys have to dumb this up for me or else I will over simplify. How does the league size affect if and when someone will get injured? Now if we agree that it doesn't then what difference will it make as to league size?
Now I understand the risk factors but the reality is a player is no more likely to be injured in a 14 team league as opposed to a 10 team league. I find this to be an example of out thinking yourself. But that's just me.
Now I'm open to new things so I will kepp an open mind but you guys are going to have to "show me" how this actually works.
Now I understand the risk factors but the reality is a player is no more likely to be injured in a 14 team league as opposed to a 10 team league. I find this to be an example of out thinking yourself. But that's just me.
Now I'm open to new things so I will kepp an open mind but you guys are going to have to "show me" how this actually works.
John Mamula
Moderator
So says the token board virgin.
Winston Wolfe
The Cleaner
Baggerginity shtick is so 2004.So says the token board virgin.
radballs
Footballguy
I'm just guessing here so we'll have to get an LHUCKS response to clarify. However, I'm assuming the point is that in a larger league you have to be even more careful. Careful means doing everything you can to minimize risk. I suppose I can see that some people may see that managing risk is more critical when you participate in larger leagues (because in smaller leagues you can make up for a "home run shot"). In any case, it's hard to imagine that certain players at the very top would have substantial risks that would alter their rankings ONLY depending upon whether it's a 10 vs. 14 team league.
joffer
Footballguy
I could see it last year with someone like Priest in the mix. Knowing the slim pickens available at the 2nd/3rd turn in a 14 team league would steer you towards a safer pick if you had two players ranked closely otherwise.
This year, I don't see enough of an injury risk with LJ, Alexander, LT, or Portis to let league size sway me one way or another.
This year, I don't see enough of an injury risk with LJ, Alexander, LT, or Portis to let league size sway me one way or another.
SammyJankis
Footballguy
Disagree with this sentiment. I think LUCKS says it best when he says later on in this thread that in the WCOFF "LJ is the obvious #1 pick for that format IMHO.". Why is that?Well what do you wamt in your #1 pick in any league size? You want a guy that will stay healthy and consistantly put up the most points. But there is rarely an opporunity to optimize all conditions, so you have to evaluate what is the most imporatnt.
Much can be learned from statistics, in that in the long run, you always want to choose the play with the most expected value. That is, you determine the value of all probable outcomes and multiple them by their probablity. So, for example let's say you are considering Larry Johnson vs. Shaun Alexander. Say for example that you argue that there is a 90% chance Shaun stays healthy and scores 200 points, but a 10% chance he scores only 80 points (due to injury). Then you say 200*.9 + 80*.10 and you expect Shaun Alexander to score 199 points. For Larry Johnson, perhaps you argue that he can score 230 points 65% of the time, but only 60 the other 35% of the time. You give LJ an expected value of 174.5.
In the long run, you always take the play with the most expected value. Its a no brainer. Given enough chances, that play pays off the most. But in a redraft league, its not the long term. Its a one shot proposition. You have to ask yourself, how much do I need to leave some expected value on the table in order to maximize my chances of winning?
League size plays a big factor here. If I handed you a $25 chip in a casino and told you that if in an hour you didn't have a thousand dollars to give me, what game would you play? The highest expected value would be to play conservatively at craps or at blackjack, but that isn't going to give you the money you need. You need to give up a lot of expected value and put that $25 chip down on a number at the roulette number and say a prayer.
When your league size is small, you take the expected value and stick to the sure thing (think pass line craps bets or conservative blackjack) when you play in a big league (or a huge league like WCOFF) doing "good" isn't going to cut the mustard. You have to do outstanding. So in that case you leave expected value on the table in order to try to show a huge return.
So the point is, small league = take less risk, maximize your value. Big to huge league = take more risk, try to maximize your investment and shoot the moon. THis is where I think LUCKS was originally going. If you play in an 8 team league Shaun Alexander is a no brainer at #1. But when you play in WCOFF, Larry Johnson is your no brainer.
SammyJankis
Footballguy
Explained my point ,but didn't explain well why I disagree with this sentnement:If you take your #1 pick and blow it in a large league, you're usually dead in the water. Someome is going to hit a home run with their #1 pick, so if your guy shreads his ACL in game 1, you're toast. "Play it safe" is mantra for a small league, not a big one. Yes you want a "sure thing" you also want the guy with the maximum value. Which is more important? The larger the league, the harder it is to win. So you have to accept that risk a lot of the time and take on guys with higher upside with more risk.
You're creating a risk when it's not there. Sure common sense would tell ya any player could get hurt. Beyond that Shaun hasn't missed a game his whole career and LT has missed just one. This is similar to someone predicting lost time due to an injury for Favre or Peyton. On the other hand, LJ who you deem less risky and has missed what amounts to a full season in just 3 years. That's 1/3 or 33% or awful reliability IMO.
IMO You're off here LHucks. As usual, you have some solid ideas and thoughts behind it but your starting hypothesis truly seems to be that LJ is less risky than the others. It was flawed from the beginning. The same great line that blocked for LJ blocked for Priest and Blaylock who have missed a ton of time too. A line can be argued that they protect the QB and thus save him from injury but (esp in KCs case) not save a RB from injury.
Sorry bro, not a fan of this theory by you
Good luck with your book. I'll buy it ASAP. I, too, have similar ambitions and have been deleting pages upon pages of "nonsense" lately so feel free to PM me if ya ever wanna whine about how grrrr the whole process is.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
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