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A little dynasty TE discussion... (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter AngryPatriot
- Start date
loose circuits
Footballguy
doesn't Luke stocker fit that bill?
cstu
Footballguy
This will be the concern if they don't get a serious threat at WR. Every DC will game plan to shut him down, effectively shutting down the entire passing game.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
I'm pretty sure hes going to be converted to a WR, Lovie has no need for a 220lb TE
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KellysHeroes
Footballguy
idk, Greg is good but hes not that good to get that type of coverage. Car is a run 1st team with a scambling QB which just add to the threat... DCs will (should) focus on stopping the run and spying on Cam. Olsen will see some doubles but hes not going to be the prime focus. Plus their going to add WRs in the draft.
Faust
MVP
cstu
Footballguy
Finally bit on this. Odds are he won't pan out but he's potentially Hernandez's replacement. If the hype on Sudfeld could get so high, why not?
Harrison: 6-2.7/231, 4.37 40, 1.59 10, 17 bench reps, 38.5" vertical, 10-09 broad, 4.33 SS, 6.99 3 cone
Hernandez: 6-2.3/245, 4.64 40, 1.65 10, 30 bench reps, 33" vertical, 9-03 broad, 4.18 SS, 6.83 3 cone
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Jordan Cameron: 2014 Value Brownout?
Patrick Thorman | April 21, 2014 https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/04/21/jordan-cameron-2014-value-brownout/
Jordan Cameron was a hardcore fantasy football player’s kind of fantasy football player in 2013. Identified as a sleeper early in the offseason, his profile rose steadily throughout spring and summer for smart, tangible reasons. His profile is that of a highly athletic, sure-handed tight end whose principal constraints are external in nature. Yet Cameron still offered solid equity when rosters were finally chosen in August.
Despite his palpable buzz, Cameron was the 14th tight end chosen and could typically be plucked in the 10th round according tomyfantasyleague.com ADP data. He ended 2013 as the sixth highest PPR league scorer at his position despite missing Week 16. In fact, through half of 2013 he was second only to Jimmy Graham among tight ends. From that point on he was 21st, a ranking aided greatly by a nine catch, one touchdown, 121-yard effort in New England.
The wheels started falling off around midseason for several reasons. The most commonly identified culprit was quarterback play. The Browns were the only team in the league that had three different quarterbacks exceed 100 dropbacks, and Cameron’s performance was predictably mixed depending on who took snaps.
Cameron with: Games Targets Catches Yards TD aDOT PPR Pts PPR Pts/gm
Hoyer 2 20 15 146 3 6.7 47.6 23.8
Weeden 6.5 48 34 413 2 9.9 86.8 13.4
Campbell 6.5 41 30 347 1 11.9 70.7 10.9
First things first, let’s raise a glass for Cameron now that he is rid of the two-headed succubus that was Brandon Weeden and Jason Campbell. While there is lukewarm support for Brian Hoyer, and Cameron did score roughly twice as many points per game with him, be wary of someone who brings two of their ugliest friends to the bar. They rarely appear attractive by themselves in the morning light.
Then again, 23.8 points per game is exceptional, no matter what the quarterback looks like. Hoyer ranked as fantasy’s seventh best passer during those heady weeks as Cleveland’s starter. Cameron should be safely in his adequate hands come September, assuming it really is Hoyer’s mitts taking snaps from center-of-the-offseason, Alex Mack.
The Browns have been linked to everyone from Johnny Manziel to Kirk Cousins. They boast three of the first 35 picks in the draft, including fourth overall, and have ample chance to select (or trade for) a passer of the future. While that may be a boon for Cameron’s long-term value, it would be a decided negative for his 2014 outlook.
Cameron’s 2013 performance was actually more volume-dependent than his reputation as an explosive seam-splitter would have us believe. Among qualified tight ends, Cameron ranked 53rd in yards after catch per reception (3.0), 27th in yards per reception (11.5), and 20th in yards per route run (1.46). At those rates, he would need to continue to catch a ton of passes to maintain his fantasy output.
Cameron received 19 redzone targets and scored seven touchdowns. The five tight ends who scored more than he did averaged 21.1 redzone targets and 11.4 touchdowns. While he is undoubtedly athletic and tough to handle in tight quarters, it is no coincidence that his best weeks came when he was targeted 20 times in two games, with six redzone looks. Can that level of workload be counted on again, even if it is Hoyer behind center?
The Browns ranked 31st when it came to frequency of handoffs (32.2%) in 2013. Cleveland’s new offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan, called run on 40.9 percent of plays last year (18th most) while he had the same role in Washington, and 52.2 percent the prior season (2nd most). The Browns signed arguably the best running back available when they inked Ben Tate. Cleveland is going to hand the ball off quite a bit more in 2014.
Even if Cameron maintains a sizable slice of the Browns’ passing game (NFL high 681 attempts in 2013), it will still be smaller due to the entire pie shrinking. His 109 targets tied for the third most among tight ends, and he played the fourth most snaps at his position (1008). Bear in mind that he missed Week 16 and played half of Week 17 due to his second significant concussion in two seasons. His per game workload will decrease, and not only because the Browns will pass less frequently.
Cameron (-11.4) was PFF’s 56th graded run blocking tight end out of 64 who qualified (25% snaps minimum). He ranked second in pass routes run out of the slot (375), and 60.3 percent of his snaps originated there. A complete tight end he is not. While fewer snaps in 2014 is a foreboding forecast, perhaps the efficiency of his performances will rise. It had better.
One of the aforementioned “smart, tangible” reasons that Cameron’s profile rose last offseason was due to departing offensive coordinator Norv Turner. He and Cleveland’s ex-head coach Rob Chudzinski are renowned tight end maximizers, and in 2014 will take their talents to Minnesota and Indianapolis, respectively.
Shanahan, who has coordinated offenses with strong fantasy performers like Owen Danielsand Fred Davis, is not known to be quite as tight end friendly as Chudzinski’s regime. Chris Cooley was the only tight end during Shanahan’s three seasons in Washington to see double digit redzone targets (11). Daniels hit 10 during both of Shanahan’s seasons in Houston. Those highs, while notable, are still a far cry from Cameron’s 19.
By no means will Cameron be ignored. Daniels averaged nearly six targets per game under Shanahan, and Cooley saw 116 in 2010. Yet the coaching change can be viewed as another negative, however slight. The possibility of the Browns drafting a top wideout, further diluting a dwindling pool of pass attempts, has not yet been mentioned. Nor the fact that they signed Andrew Hawkins to man the slot where Cameron lined up so often last season. Never mind that the Browns’ defense should continue to improve, necessitating fewer shootouts.
A pessimist would say that Cameron is being projected too highly based mainly on one half season of outstanding, if volume-dependent, production. He will face increased competition for a constricting supply of opportunities in an offense that, while undoubtedly held back by poor quarterback play, has a comparable near-term outlook in that area. He has a history of concussions and plays a high-impact position, one that will not be promoted as heavily as it was under the previous coaching regime.
Cameron is currently being drafted as the fourth tight end, and he is coming off the board in the late fourth or early fifth rounds according to myfantasyleague.com early ADP data. He is at the top of the second tier of tight ends, or perhaps the third if Julius Thomas is considered a tier unto himself after Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski. Several options, some being drafted multiple rounds later, offer similar upside with fewer unknowns. Luckily at least a couple of those questions will be answered between now and this summer, when the drafting bullets become live.
Pat Thorman is a Lead Writer for PFF Fantasy and was named 2013 Newcomer of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. You can follow him on Twitter at @Pat_Thorman
Patrick Thorman | April 21, 2014 https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/04/21/jordan-cameron-2014-value-brownout/
Jordan Cameron was a hardcore fantasy football player’s kind of fantasy football player in 2013. Identified as a sleeper early in the offseason, his profile rose steadily throughout spring and summer for smart, tangible reasons. His profile is that of a highly athletic, sure-handed tight end whose principal constraints are external in nature. Yet Cameron still offered solid equity when rosters were finally chosen in August.
Despite his palpable buzz, Cameron was the 14th tight end chosen and could typically be plucked in the 10th round according tomyfantasyleague.com ADP data. He ended 2013 as the sixth highest PPR league scorer at his position despite missing Week 16. In fact, through half of 2013 he was second only to Jimmy Graham among tight ends. From that point on he was 21st, a ranking aided greatly by a nine catch, one touchdown, 121-yard effort in New England.
The wheels started falling off around midseason for several reasons. The most commonly identified culprit was quarterback play. The Browns were the only team in the league that had three different quarterbacks exceed 100 dropbacks, and Cameron’s performance was predictably mixed depending on who took snaps.
Cameron with: Games Targets Catches Yards TD aDOT PPR Pts PPR Pts/gm
Hoyer 2 20 15 146 3 6.7 47.6 23.8
Weeden 6.5 48 34 413 2 9.9 86.8 13.4
Campbell 6.5 41 30 347 1 11.9 70.7 10.9
First things first, let’s raise a glass for Cameron now that he is rid of the two-headed succubus that was Brandon Weeden and Jason Campbell. While there is lukewarm support for Brian Hoyer, and Cameron did score roughly twice as many points per game with him, be wary of someone who brings two of their ugliest friends to the bar. They rarely appear attractive by themselves in the morning light.
Then again, 23.8 points per game is exceptional, no matter what the quarterback looks like. Hoyer ranked as fantasy’s seventh best passer during those heady weeks as Cleveland’s starter. Cameron should be safely in his adequate hands come September, assuming it really is Hoyer’s mitts taking snaps from center-of-the-offseason, Alex Mack.
The Browns have been linked to everyone from Johnny Manziel to Kirk Cousins. They boast three of the first 35 picks in the draft, including fourth overall, and have ample chance to select (or trade for) a passer of the future. While that may be a boon for Cameron’s long-term value, it would be a decided negative for his 2014 outlook.
Cameron’s 2013 performance was actually more volume-dependent than his reputation as an explosive seam-splitter would have us believe. Among qualified tight ends, Cameron ranked 53rd in yards after catch per reception (3.0), 27th in yards per reception (11.5), and 20th in yards per route run (1.46). At those rates, he would need to continue to catch a ton of passes to maintain his fantasy output.
Cameron received 19 redzone targets and scored seven touchdowns. The five tight ends who scored more than he did averaged 21.1 redzone targets and 11.4 touchdowns. While he is undoubtedly athletic and tough to handle in tight quarters, it is no coincidence that his best weeks came when he was targeted 20 times in two games, with six redzone looks. Can that level of workload be counted on again, even if it is Hoyer behind center?
The Browns ranked 31st when it came to frequency of handoffs (32.2%) in 2013. Cleveland’s new offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan, called run on 40.9 percent of plays last year (18th most) while he had the same role in Washington, and 52.2 percent the prior season (2nd most). The Browns signed arguably the best running back available when they inked Ben Tate. Cleveland is going to hand the ball off quite a bit more in 2014.
Even if Cameron maintains a sizable slice of the Browns’ passing game (NFL high 681 attempts in 2013), it will still be smaller due to the entire pie shrinking. His 109 targets tied for the third most among tight ends, and he played the fourth most snaps at his position (1008). Bear in mind that he missed Week 16 and played half of Week 17 due to his second significant concussion in two seasons. His per game workload will decrease, and not only because the Browns will pass less frequently.
Cameron (-11.4) was PFF’s 56th graded run blocking tight end out of 64 who qualified (25% snaps minimum). He ranked second in pass routes run out of the slot (375), and 60.3 percent of his snaps originated there. A complete tight end he is not. While fewer snaps in 2014 is a foreboding forecast, perhaps the efficiency of his performances will rise. It had better.
One of the aforementioned “smart, tangible” reasons that Cameron’s profile rose last offseason was due to departing offensive coordinator Norv Turner. He and Cleveland’s ex-head coach Rob Chudzinski are renowned tight end maximizers, and in 2014 will take their talents to Minnesota and Indianapolis, respectively.
Shanahan, who has coordinated offenses with strong fantasy performers like Owen Danielsand Fred Davis, is not known to be quite as tight end friendly as Chudzinski’s regime. Chris Cooley was the only tight end during Shanahan’s three seasons in Washington to see double digit redzone targets (11). Daniels hit 10 during both of Shanahan’s seasons in Houston. Those highs, while notable, are still a far cry from Cameron’s 19.
By no means will Cameron be ignored. Daniels averaged nearly six targets per game under Shanahan, and Cooley saw 116 in 2010. Yet the coaching change can be viewed as another negative, however slight. The possibility of the Browns drafting a top wideout, further diluting a dwindling pool of pass attempts, has not yet been mentioned. Nor the fact that they signed Andrew Hawkins to man the slot where Cameron lined up so often last season. Never mind that the Browns’ defense should continue to improve, necessitating fewer shootouts.
A pessimist would say that Cameron is being projected too highly based mainly on one half season of outstanding, if volume-dependent, production. He will face increased competition for a constricting supply of opportunities in an offense that, while undoubtedly held back by poor quarterback play, has a comparable near-term outlook in that area. He has a history of concussions and plays a high-impact position, one that will not be promoted as heavily as it was under the previous coaching regime.
Cameron is currently being drafted as the fourth tight end, and he is coming off the board in the late fourth or early fifth rounds according to myfantasyleague.com early ADP data. He is at the top of the second tier of tight ends, or perhaps the third if Julius Thomas is considered a tier unto himself after Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski. Several options, some being drafted multiple rounds later, offer similar upside with fewer unknowns. Luckily at least a couple of those questions will be answered between now and this summer, when the drafting bullets become live.
Pat Thorman is a Lead Writer for PFF Fantasy and was named 2013 Newcomer of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. You can follow him on Twitter at @Pat_Thorman
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FUBAR
Footballguy
Escobar, Vance McDonald, Taylor Thompson and Luke Wilson are interesting and cheap stashes.
In an ongoing auction, the prices show tiers. The (XXX) are veterans who went for the same price.
Wilson (in the Jermaine Gresham / Zach Miller range)
Robinson (Brandon Myers)
Escobar (Ed Dickson)
McDonald (Jeff Cumberland)
Thompson (Niles Paul / Luke Stocker)
Meanwhile, Green went for more than Vernon Davis and Ertz went for just a little less, but more than Jordan Reed, Olsen and Witten.
karmarooster
Footballguy
I keep seeing these recurring news items about Jermichael Finley getting close to medical clearance. I read somewhere that he has a $10MM insurance policy that pays out if he never plays football again. Now, when I hear that, I can't imagine why he would ever try to get picked up again on some one-year, prove it type deal, most likely making near vet minimum. What are the chances that he could make $10MM for the rest of his career? Let's assume that he could make that in 2-3 years. What are the chances that he'll make significantly more than $10MM for the rest of his career? They can't be great. With $10 million plus the money he's already made, he's set for life and exposes himself to no more risk of paralysis, debilitating injury, more concussions, etc. etc.
So basically he'd get $10 million dollars NOT to play football, and he's thinking, no actually I'd rather play football, potentially for less than $10 million?
So basically he'd get $10 million dollars NOT to play football, and he's thinking, no actually I'd rather play football, potentially for less than $10 million?
karmarooster
Footballguy
Yes that's correct. From Finley's MMQB after his injury:
http://mmqb.si.com/2013/10/29/jermichael-finley-packers-injury-first-person/
But...
He made around $8.75 (before taxes) in 2013 and just turned 27.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I don't know anything about this policy - or even if one exists to be honest - but my guess is that if he's offered a contract and turns it down (or likely even if he gets medically cleared to play again) the policy would become void. I doubt the policy would let him make the concious decision to decide to not play again and just take the money.karmarooster said:
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
I like Vance McDonald's talent, but it's a huge stretch to think he's going to be FF relevant anytime soon. The 49ers have averaged a mere 435 pass attempts the past three years (and the number has actually gone down from 2011 -> 2012 -> 2013) and McDonald is at best 4th in the pecking order behind Crabtree, Boldin, and Davis. I just don't see any way for his targets to increase significantly in the short term. He's a decent long term dynasty stash on talent alone IMO, but you're going to need some serious patience.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
I'm not particularly optimistic about Vance McDonald suddenly becoming a big part of the offense. However, boldin will be 34 this year, and VD is 30. Both have been relatively healthy throughout their careers, but it doesn't get any easier as players get closer to the end. If one or both miss significant time, McDonald could be in line for a boost in targets.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
His workout numbers compare favorably to Jace Amaro. He was predominately a slot TE in college, and has the potential to be a fantasy TE1 if the opportunity should come. I agree that his situation is bad right now, and there's plenty of other TEs I'd rather have, but he is worth discussing.
Amaro:
Combine Invite: Yes
Height: 6053
Weight: 265
40 Yrd Dash: 4.74
20 Yrd Dash:
10 Yrd Dash: 225 Lb. Bench Reps: 28
Vertical Jump: 33
Broad Jump: 09'10"
20 Yrd Shuttle: 4.30
3-Cone Drill: 7.42
McDonald:
Combine Invite: Yes
Height: 6041
Weight: 267
40 Yrd Dash: 4.60
20 Yrd Dash: 2.78
10 Yrd Dash: 1.68 225 Lb. Bench Reps: 31
Vertical Jump: 33 1/2
Broad Jump: 09'11"
20 Yrd Shuttle: 4.53
3-Cone Drill: 7.08
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
You must have a great crystal ball to be able to write off a 23 year old 2nd round pick based on his rookie year behind an established Pro Bowler.
Terpman22
Footballguy
Dude. Its an opinion. And this is coming from the same team that took AJ Jenkins in the 1st round, when WR was a need. Either way, I must have hit some nerve in the McDonald support group, so I do apologize. Instead of listing every TE, here is a list of teams that have a TE or more that I like more than McDonald.
Dallas (2)
Phi
Was
NYG
SF
STL
GB
MN
Det
NO
Car
Atl
NE
Mia
KC
SD
Den
Oak
Cle
Bal
Cin (2)
Ind (2)
Louche
Footballguy
So he is your TE #26 and that makes him compleeeeetely irrelevant in a dynasty TE discussion? It doesn't make a lot of sense. He is usually ranked around the mid 20s on most sites, so I think your evaluation is pretty much on par with the rest of us. However it seems strange that a young TE in that range would be deemed irrelevant in a dynasty discussion. I primarily play in 12-32 team leagues with 40-60 man rosters though so the TEs I can find off waivers are guys like Dallas Clark and James Hanna. I would break my arm picking up Vance Mcdonald if I found him on waivers.
Terpman22
Footballguy
Its the situation, really. That was off the cuff, not including any rookie TE's. Sure, he has value. How much is the question. Not saying completely irrelevant, but a few things have to happen for him to show what he can do. And since most dynasty rankings are 1-3 years out, he is just not that valuable to me. To each their own and all...
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I believe Vernon Davis has at LEAST 3 more productive years in him. He is an absolutely supreme athlete. I'm not sure there is a more athletic TE in the league. Off the charts specimen. I tend to think the truly rare athlete have a bit longer window. He could lose .2 off his 40 and still be faster than Vance McDonald. Plus he's a team leader. He isn't going to the bench any time soon. Now he could get traded and I don't know his contract details but I really don't see a way McDonald overtakes him until at least 2017.Kitrick Taylor said:
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Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
I wasn't suggesting that McDonald was going to send VD to the bench. I was suggesting as players get older, it becomes harder for them to come back from injury. It's just the way the human body works. VD is 30 years old, and has 8 years of NFL games behind him. He's not going to be able to bounce back like he would have 5 years ago.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
True but that's only guessing that he'll get hurt. He might now get dinged up much at all. I don't know that he's anymore likely to get hurt than younger players are. I agree that age definitely lengthens the healing time though. Heck I think most of us know that from personal experience.
Louche
Footballguy
I don't think there is any doubt that McDonald is in a less than ideal situation but things change fast in the NFL. He played almost exclusively in the slot in college until his last season when he played a joker role. He was seen as a raw NFL prospect with very little inline experience. In his rookie season he has seen a lot of playing time but primarily as a blocker, somewhat surprisingly considering who he was coming out of college. He will likely see a lot of playing time this season as they use a lot of 12 personnel, but he will likely not get many targets. One would expect that he with the right situation could be a productive fantasy TE since his primary role in college was as an oversized receiver. Davis is signed through 2015. McDonald is signed through 2016. Do I think he will put up usable numbers in 2014 or 2015? No, not unless Davis gets injured. But if he flashes at some point and make some plays his value will start to rise, as it likely will for every season Davis gets older and every year McDonald gets closer to the end of his rookie contract. He is dirt cheap now and in deeper leagues he is a perfect upside guy for those last roster spots but he will obviously need time before he even gets a chance to be a startable fantasy TE. The funny thing about this game though...in the stock market of dynasty FF his value can easily rise regardless of his production on the field.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
FUBAR
Footballguy
It's a philosophy issue imo. Can't and wouldn't say you're wrong, but in deep leagues I try to get players who have the talent to succeed if circumstances change.
McDonald seems to have receiving skills. Kap has become a decent qb. That makes for a deeper "what if" type play. This isn't that different from Green /Gates except VD is a bit younger.
You're probably about right in your ranking, it's just the strategy we disagree on.
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Guilty. My TE ranking only did up to 20. I found that there is really not much differences after that., just pick whoever you likes best if you have the roster spot.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Vance was taken with the 55th pick by a team that didn't need TE, so you know hes good and when given the chance will perform. He played on about 50% of the offensive snaps which is promising but the lack of passing attempt is concerning.
cr8f
Footballguy
cstu
Footballguy
I was high on Vance prior to the draft but he's doing nothing until after VD is gone, which means he likely won't be relevant until his rookie deal is up.
Terpman22
Footballguy
Word up. That situation is similar in regard to maybe a torch being passed but as far as offensive philosophy, San Diego throws the ball much much more, which also factors into my apparent extreme low ranking of Big Vance.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
In fairness, you didn't provide everyone with this list of 20-25 other TEs beforehand.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Louche
Footballguy
What do you mean by relevant? I guess it would depend on the leagues you play. In deeper leagues a guy like Josh Hill will be picked up from waivers within a day after a rotoworld blurb and the best TEs you'll find on waivers are guys like Dallas Clark and Sean McGrath. In shallow leagues nobody bothered picking up Travis Kelce last season. Most TE dynasty rankings contain 50 players or so. I'm in some 16 team leagues where around 80 TEs are rostered and some teams will have as much as 9 TEs on their teams, including taxi squads.FUBAR said:
mr roboto
Footballguy
I'm sorry, but 'most fantasy leagues' aren't 16 teams with taxi squad. The answer is between 20-30.
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Louche
Footballguy
No, but my point is rather that the answer to how many TEs are "relevant" will vary greatly based on league format. And people play so many different formats these days, particularly people that are active on forums such as this one, so it is a bit hard to define what "most fantasy leagues" is.
FUBAR
Footballguy
I mean whatever roto does by useless.
And they're probably right, in redraft he's not going to do much without injury. But, my only point is his being "useless in redraft without injury" applies to a lot of TEs.
