Raiders coach Dennis Allen says he views second-year TE Mychal Rivera as a "foundation piece" on offense.
Beat writer Scott Bair expects Oakland's interest in draft-eligible tight ends to be "minimal" after Rivera showed some signs of becoming a useful "move" tight end as a rookie. A 2013 sixth-round pick out of Tennessee, Rivera posted a 38-407-10.7-4 line. New Raiders QB Matt Schaub has a lengthy history of heavily targeting tight ends, though Rivera's long-range upside is capped by blocking deficiencies that will limit his snaps, and marginal 4.78 speed at 6'3/245.
Source: CSN Bay Area
I expect him to put up better numbers than last year but he doesn't do much after the catch. Tough guy to get excited about.Rotoworld:
Raiders coach Dennis Allen says he views second-year TE Mychal Rivera as a "foundation piece" on offense.
Beat writer Scott Bair expects Oakland's interest in draft-eligible tight ends to be "minimal" after Rivera showed some signs of becoming a useful "move" tight end as a rookie. A 2013 sixth-round pick out of Tennessee, Rivera posted a 38-407-10.7-4 line. New Raiders QB Matt Schaub has a lengthy history of heavily targeting tight ends, though Rivera's long-range upside is capped by blocking deficiencies that will limit his snaps, and marginal 4.78 speed at 6'3/245.
Source: CSN Bay Area
There goes that...if you actually believe anything BB says.Q: You didn’t draft a tight end. Would a bigger receiver like Mark Harrison possibly factor into the mix at tight end?
BB: Yeah, I’d say we’re probably looking at Harrison as a receiver. He missed almost all of the last year or so. To try to take a guy and move him away from a position before we’ve actually seen the position he actually played – I’m not saying it won’t happen. I don’t think it’s going to happen for a while. We’ll try to get him ready to play receiver and see how he plays there, how he competes with other players at the position, his primary position. That’s more the way I see it. I’m sure Nick [Caserio], Jon Robinson and their staffs will be competitive and we’ll be able to sign some players in free agency at that position and the other positions that we need to do to fill out our roster. We’re working on that now. It’s a very competitive process. You have 32 teams after a lot of the same guys, not all the same guys but there’s competition pretty much everywhere so we’ll see how that turns out.
Rotoworld:I noticed the Giants didn't take a TE in the draft. This puts Adrien Robinson as the starting TE, correct?
Adrien Robinson is penciled in as the Giants' starting tight end.
Tight end was a glaring hole on the Giants' roster heading into draft weekend, but GM Jerry Reese didn't draft a single player at the position. Robinson, a 2012 fourth-rounder, should get the first snaps at tight end this summer, barring a free-agent signing. (Jermichael Finley and Dustin Keller remain unsigned.) Robinson is a size-speed freak at 6-foot-4, 264 with 4.56 wheels and a mind-boggling 11-foot-3 broad jump, but has yet to prove he can stay healthy.
Source: ESPN.com
Levine Toilolo is expected to be the Falcons' starting tight end this season after the team failed to draft one this weekend.
GM Thomas Dimitroff says whoever plays tight end in Atlanta is going to be "an inline player." That means Toilolo is going to be blocking most of the time, while the Falcons trot out more three-wide sets this season. Harry Douglas is going to be the main beneficiary here. Toilolo won't be a strong fantasy option.
Source: Atlanta Journal-Constitution
I'd probably slot him at #4 behind Graham, Gronk, and Cameron. Not really sold on Julius as a long term option. I think Eifert is pretty good, but maybe not quite as dynamic as Ebron. I actually like ASJ quite a bit too and would probably rank him in the top 10 as well.Thoughts on Ebron in the dynasty TE rankings?
He's going to be a flop. He's one of the biggest myths in the draft. Blame Mayock. He's still claiming he's a better athlete than V. Davis.Thoughts on Ebron in the dynasty TE rankings?
Wow. Just curious- where did you have Fleener ranked coming in?I'd probably slot him at #4 behind Graham, Gronk, and Cameron. Not really sold on Julius as a long term option. I think Eifert is pretty good, but maybe not quite as dynamic as Ebron. I actually like ASJ quite a bit too and would probably rank him in the top 10 as well.Thoughts on Ebron in the dynasty TE rankings?
To each his own.I'd probably slot him at #4 behind Graham, Gronk, and Cameron. Not really sold on Julius as a long term option. I think Eifert is pretty good, but maybe not quite as dynamic as Ebron. I actually like ASJ quite a bit too and would probably rank him in the top 10 as well.Thoughts on Ebron in the dynasty TE rankings?
I don't know. Certainly not top 5 TE high. I thought he'd be better than he has been, but he was only ranked around my #10-12 rookie in that class. I just checked and I had him at #11 before the draft and #11 after the draft. That doesn't scream elite talent.Wow. Just curious- where did you have Fleener ranked coming in?I'd probably slot him at #4 behind Graham, Gronk, and Cameron. Not really sold on Julius as a long term option. I think Eifert is pretty good, but maybe not quite as dynamic as Ebron. I actually like ASJ quite a bit too and would probably rank him in the top 10 as well.Thoughts on Ebron in the dynasty TE rankings?
If anything, he's one of the safest picks in the class and one of the few guys where you can pretty safely assume that 4-5 years down the line he will still be very FF relevant. Now obviously that's contingent on him staying focused, healthy, and out of trouble. No question that the talent is there though.He's going to be a flop. He's one of the biggest myths in the draft. Blame Mayock. He's still claiming he's a better athlete than V. Davis.Thoughts on Ebron in the dynasty TE rankings?
I've got him 7th, behind Gronk, Graham, Cameron, Reed, Thomas, and Eifert, in that order. I actually think Ebron is a better prospect and in a better situation than Eifert, but Eifert has a year head start, which means he'll likely be productive sooner, and if he's a bust, we'll figure it out sooner and be able to cut bait. If both were rookies this year, I would prefer Ebron.Thoughts on Ebron in the dynasty TE rankings?
In most format, I don't think he's worth a top 3 pick. There is just way too much Greg Olsen potential--he can be everything the Lions want him to be, and still only be an average starter for fantasy purposes. If I am going to pay that much for a TE--I'd much rather go all in on Graham or Gronk. Or pay less for Thomas, Reed, Witten or Eifert.I'm sitting at #3 in my PPR rookie draft and wonder if Ebron is worthwhile there. Pettigrew has been underwhelming in that role, and so all have the WRs not named Calvin Johnson.
Cowboys "OC" Scott Linehan is "really excited to see" what second-year TE Gavin Escobar can do in 2014.
"The Escobar kid is a guy that’s kind of somewhat untapped at this point," Linehan said. "It’s not because he doesn’t have the ability to do it. We really liked him [in Detroit] last year coming out in the draft." Linehan is going to spread the Cowboys out and pass it a ton, which will give Escobar more opportunities to catch the ball. He played just 206 snaps as a rookie and should have no problem doubling that in 2014. Escobar is best in the slot and off the line.
Source: Dallas Morning News
Are Thomas, Reed, or Eifert available for less than that?In most format, I don't think he's worth a top 3 pick. There is just way too much Greg Olsen potential--he can be everything the Lions want him to be, and still only be an average starter for fantasy purposes. If I am going to pay that much for a TE--I'd much rather go all in on Graham or Gronk. Or pay less for Thomas, Reed, Witten or Eifert.I'm sitting at #3 in my PPR rookie draft and wonder if Ebron is worthwhile there. Pettigrew has been underwhelming in that role, and so all have the WRs not named Calvin Johnson.
Rotoworld:
Levine Toilolo is expected to be the Falcons' starting tight end this season after the team failed to draft one this weekend.
GM Thomas Dimitroff says whoever plays tight end in Atlanta is going to be "an inline player." That means Toilolo is going to be blocking most of the time, while the Falcons trot out more three-wide sets this season. Harry Douglas is going to be the main beneficiary here. Toilolo won't be a strong fantasy option.
Source: Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Evan Silva @evansilva
Levine Toilolo is heavy-footed blocking in-line TE & wont be a high-volume receiver but should appeal to TE streamers. Could catch 6-9 TDs.
I like Green too but I'll feel better about him when Gates retires. How many targets do we think Green can realistically get with Gates starting?I prefer Ladarius Green over all the young up and comers(Ebron,Eifert,Ertz,Reed,Amaro,ASJ)
The Chargers have to find a way to get Green on the field regardless of Gates. In reality he's not even a tight end, he's a giant freak WR like Vincent Jackson.I like Green too but I'll feel better about him when Gates retires. How many targets do we think Green can realistically get with Gates starting?I prefer Ladarius Green over all the young up and comers(Ebron,Eifert,Ertz,Reed,Amaro,ASJ)
I hear you but after showing well down the stretch last year I'm counting on the Chargers getting him a lot more involved in the passing game. Outside of Keenan Allen they have nothing that scares defenses except Green. A leap of faith on my part but I think it's likely he will have a nice yearI like Green too but I'll feel better about him when Gates retires. How many targets do we think Green can realistically get with Gates starting?I prefer Ladarius Green over all the young up and comers(Ebron,Eifert,Ertz,Reed,Amaro,ASJ)
Usage bears this out. The sample size is tiny, but Green's 22 yards per reception was the 3rd highest figure among TEs since 1970 (minimum 10 receptions). The only guys to top it were Walter White (no, not that Walter White) and Gonzo's old teammate, Jason Dunn. Dunn had a nice career as a blocking specialist, and White had one of the more interesting career trajectories I've seen. He went from 24.3 ypr as a rookie to 17.2 as a sophomore, then 14.0, 8.1, 5.0, and out of the league. I'd imagine the list of players to average 24.3 yards per reception *AND* 8.1 yards per reception over sufficiently large sample sizes has to be pretty small.The Chargers have to find a way to get Green on the field regardless of Gates. In reality he's not even a tight end, he's a giant freak WR like Vincent Jackson.I like Green too but I'll feel better about him when Gates retires. How many targets do we think Green can realistically get with Gates starting?I prefer Ladarius Green over all the young up and comers(Ebron,Eifert,Ertz,Reed,Amaro,ASJ)
@nfldraftscout
Per @RobDemovsky's tweet, Colt Lyerla is at the Packers' rookie orientation. Would be a great fit for him personally & athletically.
Rotoworld take:A long shot that still needs keeping an eye on:
@nfldraftscout
Per @RobDemovsky's tweet, Colt Lyerla is at the Packers' rookie orientation. Would be a great fit for him personally & athletically.
Ex-Oregon TE Colt Lyerla is participating in Packers rookie minicamp on a tryout basis.
Lyerla went undrafted last weekend. The 6-foot-4, 242-pound tight end was once viewed as a potential first-round pick not too long ago, but the last time he played in a game was September 2013. Lyerla was suspended by the team for missing multiple practices. He then quit the squad, started using drugs, and then got arrested for possession of cocaine. At the Combine, Lyerla blazed a 4.61 forty, posted a 39-inch vertical, and 10-foot-8 broad jump. He has natural hands and a large catch radius (32 3/4-inch arms). If Lyerla can get his head on straight, catching passes from Aaron Rodgers wouldn't be a bad gig. The tight end depth chart in Green Bay is wide open.
Related: Packers
From what I've seen--certainly. I'd say they each cost aroudn a mid-first rounder in standard formats.Are Thomas, Reed, or Eifert available for less than that?In most format, I don't think he's worth a top 3 pick. There is just way too much Greg Olsen potential--he can be everything the Lions want him to be, and still only be an average starter for fantasy purposes. If I am going to pay that much for a TE--I'd much rather go all in on Graham or Gronk. Or pay less for Thomas, Reed, Witten or Eifert.I'm sitting at #3 in my PPR rookie draft and wonder if Ebron is worthwhile there. Pettigrew has been underwhelming in that role, and so all have the WRs not named Calvin Johnson.
Saw this too. Lyerla has serious baggage but if he somehow gets his head on straight I could easily see him starting in GB. Dude is a really good TE.Faust said:Rotoworld take:Faust said:A long shot that still needs keeping an eye on:
@nfldraftscout
Per @RobDemovsky's tweet, Colt Lyerla is at the Packers' rookie orientation. Would be a great fit for him personally & athletically.
Ex-Oregon TE Colt Lyerla is participating in Packers rookie minicamp on a tryout basis.
Lyerla went undrafted last weekend. The 6-foot-4, 242-pound tight end was once viewed as a potential first-round pick not too long ago, but the last time he played in a game was September 2013. Lyerla was suspended by the team for missing multiple practices. He then quit the squad, started using drugs, and then got arrested for possession of cocaine. At the Combine, Lyerla blazed a 4.61 forty, posted a 39-inch vertical, and 10-foot-8 broad jump. He has natural hands and a large catch radius (32 3/4-inch arms). If Lyerla can get his head on straight, catching passes from Aaron Rodgers wouldn't be a bad gig. The tight end depth chart in Green Bay is wide open.
Related: Packers
I'll be sure to add him to my team that already has Hernandez, Gordon and Blackmon.Saw this too. Lyerla has serious baggage but if he somehow gets his head on straight I could easily see him starting in GB. Dude is a really good TE.Faust said:Rotoworld take:Faust said:A long shot that still needs keeping an eye on:
@nfldraftscout
Per @RobDemovsky's tweet, Colt Lyerla is at the Packers' rookie orientation. Would be a great fit for him personally & athletically.
Ex-Oregon TE Colt Lyerla is participating in Packers rookie minicamp on a tryout basis.
Lyerla went undrafted last weekend. The 6-foot-4, 242-pound tight end was once viewed as a potential first-round pick not too long ago, but the last time he played in a game was September 2013. Lyerla was suspended by the team for missing multiple practices. He then quit the squad, started using drugs, and then got arrested for possession of cocaine. At the Combine, Lyerla blazed a 4.61 forty, posted a 39-inch vertical, and 10-foot-8 broad jump. He has natural hands and a large catch radius (32 3/4-inch arms). If Lyerla can get his head on straight, catching passes from Aaron Rodgers wouldn't be a bad gig. The tight end depth chart in Green Bay is wide open.
Related: Packers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xgqbrR8FOYI
The Packers drafted Richard Rodgers in the third round. I don't think he's anything special, but he will get a shot.Anyone care to expand on the situations where we didn't see a TE drafted, namely GB, DAL, and NY.
Giants have Robinson, who was supposed to be the JPP of TEs, only he can't stay healthy to save his life, and they were using him as a blocking TE instead of a pass catcher. Now they go through the entire draft and don't take anyone at that spot... Robinson is penciled in, but what can we realistically expect? Seems like fertile ground for a TE with McAdoo taking over, but is anyone beating the drum for Robinson?
In DAL, we get news that Linehan is intrigued by Escobar, and Escobar was rather highly thought of by some on this board last year as the potential heir apparent to Witten. The Cowboys did spend a top-50 pick on him, and will now likely be one of the most pass-happy teams in the league. They're also not exactly loaded with receiving weapons past Dez and Witten (though I do like Terrance Williams). Thoughts on Escobar.
Finally in GB -- agree with everyone Lyerla is the type to keep a very close eye on... his skills are dynamite, but his baggage is real. I also wonder how much the WRs are going to affect the TE position in GB. When Cobb emerged in 2012, we saw Finley and the other TEs take a big step back. In 2013 post-Cobb, they emerged again until Jermichael's injury. I just wonder how much opportunity is left behind after a healthy Cobb returns, especially since they drafted multiple WRs, including one in the 2nd round. Still, Lyerla is very intriguing to watch.
Thoughts on these situations?
If that were not the case- if Eifert/Thomas/Reed were either not available for trade, or would cost the 1.01 pick to acquire- how would you feel about Ebron with the 1.03?Concept Coop said:From what I've seen--certainly. I'd say they each cost aroudn a mid-first rounder in standard formats.Are Thomas, Reed, or Eifert available for less than that?In most format, I don't think he's worth a top 3 pick. There is just way too much Greg Olsen potential--he can be everything the Lions want him to be, and still only be an average starter for fantasy purposes. If I am going to pay that much for a TE--I'd much rather go all in on Graham or Gronk. Or pay less for Thomas, Reed, Witten or Eifert.I'm sitting at #3 in my PPR rookie draft and wonder if Ebron is worthwhile there. Pettigrew has been underwhelming in that role, and so all have the WRs not named Calvin Johnson.
Rodgers and interest in Lyerla are signs that Finley is done.The Packers drafted Richard Rodgers in the third round. I don't think he's anything special, but he will get a shot.Finally in GB -- agree with everyone Lyerla is the type to keep a very close eye on... his skills are dynamite, but his baggage is real. I also wonder how much the WRs are going to affect the TE position in GB. When Cobb emerged in 2012, we saw Finley and the other TEs take a big step back. In 2013 post-Cobb, they emerged again until Jermichael's injury. I just wonder how much opportunity is left behind after a healthy Cobb returns, especially since they drafted multiple WRs, including one in the 2nd round. Still, Lyerla is very intriguing to watch.
Thoughts on these situations?
I like Ebron now more than I liked Eifert a year ago, and I liked Eifert a year ago more than I like Eifert now. Eifert's meh rookie year didn't hurt his stock all that much, but it definitely didn't help him. Some star TEs (like Shockey) break out as rookies, so you have to downgrade the expected career value of the ones who don't (at least a little). And in terms of urgency, the chances that a first round rookie TE will break out in his first 2 years probably isn't that different from the chances that a first round TE going into his second year (who hasn't broken out yet) will break out in his 2nd or 3rd year. (With WRs the numbers are very close, with TEs there's a tiny sample size so it's hard to tell.)I've got him 7th, behind Gronk, Graham, Cameron, Reed, Thomas, and Eifert, in that order. I actually think Ebron is a better prospect and in a better situation than Eifert, but Eifert has a year head start, which means he'll likely be productive sooner, and if he's a bust, we'll figure it out sooner and be able to cut bait. If both were rookies this year, I would prefer Ebron.Thoughts on Ebron in the dynasty TE rankings?
Rookie TEs have historically struggled to make an impact, but it seems like that might be changing a little bit. I'm not sure if it's because more of these guys are being used in specialist receiving roles right away and so their liability status as blockers becomes less of an immediate obstacle. That seems like a reasonable hypothesis. The guys who did best last year like Ertz, Wright, and Reed were essentialy TEs in name only. Hardly blocking and mostly playing a WR role.I think Ebron in Detroit is more likely to produce good numbers as a rookie than any of the previous top 10 players drafted at the position. Winslow had his rookie year derailed by a motorcycle accident. Davis got in the coaches dog house for penalties early on. This was expansion Browns and a 49ers team near rock bottom at the time these guys were drafted.
Ebron's situation is much better on a prolific passing team already established. Now being built upon by adding Ebron to be the Robin to Megas Batman. The Lions HC has already said Ebrons role will be the same way they used Graham with the Saints. I just cannot think of a scenario much better for his outlook in FF.
Of the 10 highest-scoring TEs in the history of the NFL, only one had a better rookie season than Eifert just had (Ozzie Newsome, with 589/2 receiving). Going to the top 20 adds a couple more- Mike Ditka (a guy with a legit GOAT argument), the aforementioned Shockey, and Keith Jackson. Dave Parks had a better rookie season, but he didn't start out as a TE. Point is, it's incredibly rare for a good TE to have a good rookie season, and while it would have been nice if Eifert had managed to join that group, I have not revised my estimates of him eventually breaking out downwards because of last season.ZWK said:I've posted my dynasty TE rankings here. My top 10:
Graham
Gronk
J Thomas
Cameron
Ebron
Eifert
Reed
Ertz
Green
V Davis
I notice that I'm higher than most on Ebron. For example, Adam says:
I like Ebron now more than I liked Eifert a year ago, and I liked Eifert a year ago more than I like Eifert now. Eifert's meh rookie year didn't hurt his stock all that much, but it definitely didn't help him. Some star TEs (like Shockey) break out as rookies, so you have to downgrade the expected career value of the ones who don't (at least a little). And in terms of urgency, the chances that a first round rookie TE will break out in his first 2 years probably isn't that different from the chances that a first round TE going into his second year (who hasn't broken out yet) will break out in his 2nd or 3rd year. (With WRs the numbers are very close, with TEs there's a tiny sample size so it's hard to tell.)I've got him 7th, behind Gronk, Graham, Cameron, Reed, Thomas, and Eifert, in that order. I actually think Ebron is a better prospect and in a better situation than Eifert, but Eifert has a year head start, which means he'll likely be productive sooner, and if he's a bust, we'll figure it out sooner and be able to cut bait. If both were rookies this year, I would prefer Ebron.Thoughts on Ebron in the dynasty TE rankings?
The 'If he's a total bust, then I'll be able to recognize that sooner and drop him' advantage is such a tiny advantage here that it's hardly even worth thinking about. First round TEs rarely take the Buster Davis career path, where they do nothing and fantasy owners just wait around until they've accumulated enough evidence to drop him. They're more likely to take the Pettigrew path, where they have a couple years of moderate fantasy usefulness before their role shrinks and they become droppable. If you bought Buster Davis a year into his career, then you might get the advantage of only needing to keep him on your roster for 2 years instead of 3 before his bust nature was sufficiently proven. There is no such advantage with Pettigrew.Of the 10 highest-scoring TEs in the history of the NFL, only one had a better rookie season than Eifert just had (Ozzie Newsome, with 589/2 receiving). Going to the top 20 adds a couple more- Mike Ditka (a guy with a legit GOAT argument), the aforementioned Shockey, and Keith Jackson. Dave Parks had a better rookie season, but he didn't start out as a TE. Point is, it's incredibly rare for a good TE to have a good rookie season, and while it would have been nice if Eifert had managed to join that group, I have not revised my estimates of him eventually breaking out downwards because of last season.ZWK said:I've posted my dynasty TE rankings here. My top 10:
Graham
Gronk
J Thomas
Cameron
Ebron
Eifert
Reed
Ertz
Green
V Davis
I notice that I'm higher than most on Ebron. For example, Adam says:
I like Ebron now more than I liked Eifert a year ago, and I liked Eifert a year ago more than I like Eifert now. Eifert's meh rookie year didn't hurt his stock all that much, but it definitely didn't help him. Some star TEs (like Shockey) break out as rookies, so you have to downgrade the expected career value of the ones who don't (at least a little). And in terms of urgency, the chances that a first round rookie TE will break out in his first 2 years probably isn't that different from the chances that a first round TE going into his second year (who hasn't broken out yet) will break out in his 2nd or 3rd year. (With WRs the numbers are very close, with TEs there's a tiny sample size so it's hard to tell.)I've got him 7th, behind Gronk, Graham, Cameron, Reed, Thomas, and Eifert, in that order. I actually think Ebron is a better prospect and in a better situation than Eifert, but Eifert has a year head start, which means he'll likely be productive sooner, and if he's a bust, we'll figure it out sooner and be able to cut bait. If both were rookies this year, I would prefer Ebron.Thoughts on Ebron in the dynasty TE rankings?
The advantage Eifert offers over Ebron is, in my mind, twofold. First off, as I just mentioned, it's extremely rare for good TEs to have good rookie years. As a result, the chances that Eifert will have a good year this year are much higher than the chances that Ebron will have a good year. Similarly, if Eifert has a bad year this year, it will provide us with much more information than if Ebron does (because almost all rookie TEs have bad years).
There are four possible outcomes with respect to Eifert and Ebron. Either both are going to be great, both are going to bust, Eifert will be great while Ebron busts, or Ebron will be great while Eifert busts. I believe the fourth outcome is marginally more likely than the third outcome, which is why I say I would prefer Ebron if both were rookies. On the other hand, I believe that in both the first and second outcomes, Eifert provides more value (because he's either producing or off your squad sooner). Eifert's advantage in the first and second possible outcomes is enough to outweigh Ebron's advantage in the third and fourth outcomes and nudge Eifert just marginally ahead in my rankings.
I've never before heard myself described as an impatient owner, so thanks for that.The 'If he's a total bust, then I'll be able to recognize that sooner and drop him' advantage is such a tiny advantage here that it's hardly even worth thinking about. First round TEs rarely take the Buster Davis career path, where they do nothing and fantasy owners just wait around until they've accumulated enough evidence to drop him. They're more likely to take the Pettigrew path, where they have a couple years of moderate fantasy usefulness before their role shrinks and they become droppable. If you bought Buster Davis a year into his career, then you might get the advantage of only needing to keep him on your roster for 2 years instead of 3 before his bust nature was sufficiently proven. There is no such advantage with Pettigrew.
Here's a quiz: Who is the most recent first round TE, drafted before 2012, who has 0 career VBD (using PFR scoring)?
Hint: It's not Gresham (TE11 in 2012) or Pettigrew (TE11 in 2011).
The answer is this fellow, and he still had three top 16 seasons in his first four years. There have been 14 straight first round TEs with >0 career VBD drafted since him.
In other words, a first round TE who is a fantasy "bust" will quite likely be worth having on your roster (for immediate use, not speculative future value) for a couple years as a backup / fill-in for byes & injuries, and there's a strong chance that he'll at least have one year where he creeps above baseline into low-end starter's territory. You don't need to worry so much about Buster Davises and Jonathan Baldwins, and the advantage of being able to cut him a year sooner if he does turn out to have a Buster Davis career path is negligible.
In terms of being likely to reach his peak sooner, you're right that Eifert does have a slight advantage there. He is a year into his career already, he is 24 rather than 21, and in FBG's redraft TE rankings he is currently ranked 14th rather than 18th. But for an owner with any patience, this should be a small advantage, outweighed merely by the disadvantage of being 24 rather than 21 (which means that, if they are both great, Ebron is likely to have a higher career VBD than Eifert). And that's before getting into draft position, the teams they're on, or the mehness of Eifert's rookie year.
And Eifert's rookie year was quite meh, which is worth a bit of a downgrade. TEs who turn out to be fantasy stars often do show more than Eifert did as a rookie. In the past 15 years, Shockey, Dallas Clark, Gronk, and Hernandez were fantasy starters as rookies (in ppg). Gates, Graham, Gronk, and Hernandez all had receiving DVOA over 20% as rookies. Those names are 6 of the top 12 fantasy TEs to enter the NFL in the past 15 years (or 5 of the top 11, if you don't want to count the hypothetical fantasy career of a counterfactually non-murderous Hernandez). They all flashed something as rookies, much moreso than Eifert (who was below replacement level with a -14% DVOA, a distinction shared by only 2 of the 12 top fantasy TEs - Winslow & Davis). The fact that Eifert didn't show more as a rookie is a reason to downgrade his chances of ever joining those ranks of top fantasy TEs, since being meh as a rookie is more common among TEs who have a meh career than among TEs who have a great career.
(By PFR's career VBD numbers, the top 11 fantasy TEs to enter the league in the past 15 years are Gates, Witten, Graham, Gronk, Davis, Heap, Clark, Shockey, Crumpler, Cooley, and Winslow.)
San Diego's 2003 offense was actually fairly average - they were better that year with Flutie under center than with Brees (which prompted them to get Rivers that offseason). But I agree with your larger point: having an elite passing offense helps a TE by quite a lot. That is true for TEs of all ages, not just rookies (see, for example, the rest of Dallas Clark's career). That's why I've been watching Green Bay's TE position so closely. And I think it's another reason to prefer Ebron - even though I don't think Stafford is a Hall of Fame caliber passer, he has been putting up raw totals that might make a casual observer think he was. Bledsoesque. If you have Stafford ahead of Dalton as a fantasy QB, that's a reason to have Ebron ahead of Eifert.I've never before heard myself described as an impatient owner, so thanks for that.The 'If he's a total bust, then I'll be able to recognize that sooner and drop him' advantage is such a tiny advantage here that it's hardly even worth thinking about. First round TEs rarely take the Buster Davis career path, where they do nothing and fantasy owners just wait around until they've accumulated enough evidence to drop him. They're more likely to take the Pettigrew path, where they have a couple years of moderate fantasy usefulness before their role shrinks and they become droppable. If you bought Buster Davis a year into his career, then you might get the advantage of only needing to keep him on your roster for 2 years instead of 3 before his bust nature was sufficiently proven. There is no such advantage with Pettigrew.
Here's a quiz: Who is the most recent first round TE, drafted before 2012, who has 0 career VBD (using PFR scoring)?
Hint: It's not Gresham (TE11 in 2012) or Pettigrew (TE11 in 2011).
The answer is this fellow, and he still had three top 16 seasons in his first four years. There have been 14 straight first round TEs with >0 career VBD drafted since him.
In other words, a first round TE who is a fantasy "bust" will quite likely be worth having on your roster (for immediate use, not speculative future value) for a couple years as a backup / fill-in for byes & injuries, and there's a strong chance that he'll at least have one year where he creeps above baseline into low-end starter's territory. You don't need to worry so much about Buster Davises and Jonathan Baldwins, and the advantage of being able to cut him a year sooner if he does turn out to have a Buster Davis career path is negligible.
In terms of being likely to reach his peak sooner, you're right that Eifert does have a slight advantage there. He is a year into his career already, he is 24 rather than 21, and in FBG's redraft TE rankings he is currently ranked 14th rather than 18th. But for an owner with any patience, this should be a small advantage, outweighed merely by the disadvantage of being 24 rather than 21 (which means that, if they are both great, Ebron is likely to have a higher career VBD than Eifert). And that's before getting into draft position, the teams they're on, or the mehness of Eifert's rookie year.
And Eifert's rookie year was quite meh, which is worth a bit of a downgrade. TEs who turn out to be fantasy stars often do show more than Eifert did as a rookie. In the past 15 years, Shockey, Dallas Clark, Gronk, and Hernandez were fantasy starters as rookies (in ppg). Gates, Graham, Gronk, and Hernandez all had receiving DVOA over 20% as rookies. Those names are 6 of the top 12 fantasy TEs to enter the NFL in the past 15 years (or 5 of the top 11, if you don't want to count the hypothetical fantasy career of a counterfactually non-murderous Hernandez). They all flashed something as rookies, much moreso than Eifert (who was below replacement level with a -14% DVOA, a distinction shared by only 2 of the 12 top fantasy TEs - Winslow & Davis). The fact that Eifert didn't show more as a rookie is a reason to downgrade his chances of ever joining those ranks of top fantasy TEs, since being meh as a rookie is more common among TEs who have a meh career than among TEs who have a great career.
(By PFR's career VBD numbers, the top 11 fantasy TEs to enter the league in the past 15 years are Gates, Witten, Graham, Gronk, Davis, Heap, Clark, Shockey, Crumpler, Cooley, and Winslow.)
The "if he's a total bust" advantage isn't just about dropping a player. It's about shopping him, moving on from him, searching for a replacement, making plans. No matter which route you choose to take, with Tyler Eifert, you're going to know where you stand one year earlier, and you'll be able to begin the process of moving on that much sooner. I criticize the idea of "windows" in dynasty leagues, but the truth is, there is some time-value factor at play. 100 VBD next year is worth more than 100 VBD in two years, all else being equal. And yes, Ebron being 21 instead of 24 means we should expect more value on the back end, but that consideration is so far in the future that it winds up being a negligible portion of his overall value for me. As far as I'm concerned when ranking players, there's little functional difference between 21 and 24 (at least, at the receiving positions- RB is a different story).
As for fantasy stars who were startable as rookies... Dallas Clark was 14th in PPG as a rookie. His pro-rated stats would work out to 46/544/2. And he did that on one of the best offenses in league history (the 2000s Indy Colts) catching passes from perhaps the greatest QB to ever play the game. Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez also played on one of the best offenses in league history, catching passes from yet another first-ballot Hall of Famer. Those guys you mentioned with 20+% DVOAs? Well, you had Antonio Gates... playing for one of the league's top offenses... catching passes from a first-ballot Hall of Famer. You had Jimmy Graham... playing for one of the league's top offenses... catching passes from a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Are you starting to notice a bit of a trend, here? If you want to have great rate stats, you should try either being Jeremy Shockey (the perpetual exception at TE), or else playing on a record-setting offense with a first-ballot HoF QB. I don't really consider Eifert's failure to join that group much of a strike against him. In fact, until you mentioned it, I wasn't aware that Eifert had a negative DVOA last year. I used to be a big proponent of DVOA, but I've long since lost any interest in it as a tool to measure receivers. I think it does a great job for quarterbacks and an adequate job for runners, but whatever it's measuring when it comes to individual receivers, it's certainly not receiver quality.
All told, Eifert's rookie year had no impact on his value for me. On the negative side, it wasn't a huge year, when there was theoretically a non-zero chance that it would be. So that's bad. On the other hand, we're now past his rookie year, and since TEs are typically dead weight in their rookie years, that's a positive- one less season's worth of dead weight.
I prefer yards per route run from PFF, but they only have data going back to 2007. For the rookie TEs I looked at, yards per route run seems to match up pretty well with DVOA. They both ignore plays where the TE is not on the field, which I think is an advantage that they have compared with looking at raw totals when evaluating rookie TEs (who often play limited snaps).[...] I don't really consider Eifert's failure to join that group much of a strike against him. In fact, until you mentioned it, I wasn't aware that Eifert had a negative DVOA last year. I used to be a big proponent of DVOA, but I've long since lost any interest in it as a tool to measure receivers. I think it does a great job for quarterbacks and an adequate job for runners, but whatever it's measuring when it comes to individual receivers, it's certainly not receiver quality.
Disagree with this. Longevity is probably the centerpiece of my entire FF strategy. If you're consistently buying players who will have longer careers (on average) you're always operating from a position of depth, have more ammo for trades, and aren't usually looking to fill in holes out of need.Ebron being 21 instead of 24 means we should expect more value on the back end, but that consideration is so far in the future that it winds up being a negligible portion of his overall value for me.
He's a Packer, so yes.Richard Rodgers - te - gb, anything to see?