A little dynasty TE discussion... (1 Viewer)

[Holy Schneikes]

On Gates and Green.

I wouldn't be totally shocked if Gates was cut this year, and I WOULD be shocked if he wasn't cut before 2015 starts. He's not worth his salary.

The team would not get a ton of savings in 2014, but they'd get a LOT in 2015 (over 8M) if they cut Gates this year instead of next (in addition to 11M in real money savings over both years).

 

[bostonfred]

I agree that anyone paying huge prices at TE outside of Graham / Gronk is making a mistake, but where exactly is that happening? In every league I'm in, and the major dyno forums online, TEs aren't carrying much value at all ATM. People have their favorite upside guy ranked highly, sure, but no one is out there actually giving up a ton of value for ANYONE at TE as deep as it is right now (Graham / Gronk / TE-premium leagues excepted).

The huge price at TE is the one paid by guys who spend a first round pick on Ebron hoping he'll be the next stud TE, and then refuse to drop him or trade him when he doesn't pan out for several years. It happens ever year and it baffles me.Or in the comments I was replying to, it's the price paid by someone who would trade Pitta for Ladarius Green. Or Greg Olsen for Ladarius Green.

That might not seem like a huge price to you, but to me it's an incredibly high price. I'm surprised how many of the good dynasty guys here seem to disagree.

 

[bostonfred]

wow, that post was really rambley. sorry about that. i had started to type up a response to someone about waiver wire TEs vs waiver wire RBs, never posted it, then copy/pasted it into the middle of this response and it turned into a multi pager. yikes.

 

[Terpman22]

It's cool. Sometimes its fun to read someone else's thought process to make you think you are sane. Thanks.

 

[GoodLloydHaveMercy]

It's cool. Sometimes its fun to read someone else's thought process to make you think you are sane. Thanks.

Lol now come on it wasn't that bad... Actually some interesting points about how some people think about dynasty leagues and the waiver wire system in general... I too am a churner and use similar philosophies at times... It has allowed me to land 2 first rd picks and build a WR core of Julio Damryius Thomas & Patterson (return yardage league) and replace Aaron Hernandez & jermichael Finley with Orange Julius... So a "rebuilding" or "down yr" turned into a decent showing and a 2nd rd playoff run even with the loss of Doug Martin and Julio Jones and Hernandez (stupid jerk)

One thing he touched on that I've found to be true as well is that when u are a churner you are THE go to guy when others in the league need pieces or younger guys with opportunities to expand their roles in a short amt of time... Makes trading easier when ur able to give them what they feel they need

 

[Terpman22]

It's cool. Sometimes its fun to read someone else's thought process to make you think you are sane. Thanks.

Lol now come on it wasn't that bad... Actually some interesting points about how some people think about dynasty leagues and the waiver wire system in general... I too am a churner and use similar philosophies at times... It has allowed me to land 2 first rd picks and build a WR core of Julio Damryius Thomas & Patterson (return yardage league) and replace Aaron Hernandez & jermichael Finley with Orange Julius... So a "rebuilding" or "down yr" turned into a decent showing and a 2nd rd playoff run even with the loss of Doug Martin and Julio Jones and Hernandez (stupid jerk)

One thing he touched on that I've found to be true as well is that when u are a churner you are THE go to guy when others in the league need pieces or younger guys with opportunities to expand their roles in a short amt of time... Makes trading easier when ur able to give them what they feel they need

I was being honest. B/c I have a lot of the same thoughts, and when I get in my head, I feel I am a little crazy. So it's nice to see someone expand on that. A few things I have learned is that I am a pretty good drafter, but not the best trader. This has caused me some great pain (b/c I thought I was SOOOO great at drafting, I could be cavalier with my trading), which, has caused me to become a less frequent trader and more focused on mining/churning. So I get it. Patience is the biggest key for me now. I find myself finding that gem (like Cameron/Thomas) before anyone else is really on board. Then I shop them and get offered nothing. Until he goes off, then everyone is too scared b/c I have owned him for so long, they know I want a decent ROI. And the cycle continues...

I also changed my drafting strategy to strictly BPA the last 3 years, which has produced great results as well. I only play dynasty fwiw.

 

[GoodLloydHaveMercy]

In my league the "Next" big thing in TE is a big deal so it's to my advantage to pluck players at TE prior to the hype they may receive heading into the season in hopes that they can be used in trades later if they gain momentum as the next out of nowhere guy who can become a Julius Thomas... Easier to collect and trade or drop TEs than it is to collect and trade or drop the mike gillislies of the world of fantasy football

 

[Terpman22]

In my league the "Next" big thing in TE is a big deal so it's to my advantage to pluck players at TE prior to the hype they may receive heading into the season in hopes that they can be used in trades later if they gain momentum as the next out of nowhere guy who can become a Julius Thomas... Easier to collect and trade or drop TEs than it is to collect and trade or drop the mike gillislies of the world of fantasy football

So true. My good friend, and pretty much the only guy I know in real life that knows as much about FF as me (I know, I know...shut up) turned me on to JG his rookie year. I didn't buy the hype he was telling me. BIG MISTAKE as he got the guy very cheap his rookie year. Things, obviously have not been the same since. I have been looking for one ever since and was lucky to land either Cameron or Jordan on 8/9 teams last year. But still, a point that was made earlier, is that its still hard to move one of these guys for fair value. In one league I have both, as it was the only league that had a rookie + FA mixed draft and was able to land Cameron in the 3rd. Then the league voted to have a FA draft in August for the first time and I scooped up Thomas too. Still can't get fair value (IMO) ever since, b/c people seem to want to discount the fact that "you don't need both" (no TE flex).

 

[GoodLloydHaveMercy]

It's cool. Sometimes its fun to read someone else's thought process to make you think you are sane. Thanks.

Lol now come on it wasn't that bad... Actually some interesting points about how some people think about dynasty leagues and the waiver wire system in general... I too am a churner and use similar philosophies at times... It has allowed me to land 2 first rd picks and build a WR core of Julio Damryius Thomas & Patterson (return yardage league) and replace Aaron Hernandez & jermichael Finley with Orange Julius... So a "rebuilding" or "down yr" turned into a decent showing and a 2nd rd playoff run even with the loss of Doug Martin and Julio Jones and Hernandez (stupid jerk)One thing he touched on that I've found to be true as well is that when u are a churner you are THE go to guy when others in the league need pieces or younger guys with opportunities to expand their roles in a short amt of time... Makes trading easier when ur able to give them what they feel they need

I was being honest. B/c I have a lot of the same thoughts, and when I get in my head, I feel I am a little crazy. So it's nice to see someone expand on that. A few things I have learned is that I am a pretty good drafter, but not the best trader. This has caused me some great pain (b/c I thought I was SOOOO great at drafting, I could be cavalier with my trading), which, has caused me to become a less frequent trader and more focused on mining/churning. So I get it. Patience is the biggest key for me now. I find myself finding that gem (like Cameron/Thomas) before anyone else is really on board. Then I shop them and get offered nothing. Until he goes off, then everyone is too scared b/c I have owned him for so long, they know I want a decent ROI. And the cycle continues...I also changed my drafting strategy to strictly BPA the last 3 years, which has produced great results as well. I only play dynasty fwiw.

I too have had to learn patience... Prime example being me trading away Jordan Cameron before start of 2012 season for 2 3rd rounders in 2013... I had Aaron Hernandez and Jermichael Finley and Martellus Bennett I mean what could go wrong?

(Turned into Justin Hunter & Kenjon Barner who I later dropped for Da'Rick Rogers so it may pan out in the long run)

 

[GoodLloydHaveMercy]

In my league the "Next" big thing in TE is a big deal so it's to my advantage to pluck players at TE prior to the hype they may receive heading into the season in hopes that they can be used in trades later if they gain momentum as the next out of nowhere guy who can become a Julius Thomas... Easier to collect and trade or drop TEs than it is to collect and trade or drop the mike gillislies of the world of fantasy football

So true. My good friend, and pretty much the only guy I know in real life that knows as much about FF as me (I know, I know...shut up) turned me on to JG his rookie year. I didn't buy the hype he was telling me. BIG MISTAKE as he got the guy very cheap his rookie year. Things, obviously have not been the same since. I have been looking for one ever since and was lucky to land either Cameron or Jordan on 8/9 teams last year. But still, a point that was made earlier, is that its still hard to move one of these guys for fair value. In one league I have both, as it was the only league that had a rookie + FA mixed draft and was able to land Cameron in the 3rd. Then the league voted to have a FA draft in August for the first time and I scooped up Thomas too. Still can't get fair value (IMO) ever since, b/c people seem to want to discount the fact that "you don't need both" (no TE flex).

You may not need both but they certainly could use one of them... We run into similar issues in my 12 tm dynasty league... Undervalued... I find they are easier to get value for on rookie draft day when they are in the clock for their pick

 

[Tau837]

Ladarius Green seems to be underrated in these dynasty rankings.

I have him 15th in the list I just posted. Who on that list do you think he should be ahead of? He's one step below Charles Clay, I can see flipping the two I guess. Zach Ertz has similar youth/upside and a clearer path to a #1 role. I have him ahead of Eifert. He's behind Witten, but I think Witten has a few years left in the tank. Maybe Martelllus Bennett? Bennett's on a rejuvenated passing offense and is already putting up solid numbers. Green is still mostly potential. Dwayne Allen? He's been hurt, but he's got a clearer path to the job and doesn't have to worry about how many more years Rivers has left. Do you have him higher than that? Would you feel comfortable heading into 2014 as your TE1 or is he just a high value TE2?

I'm heading into 2014 with Green and Eifert as my only two TEs in a 10 team league. So, yes, I am comfortable with that.

I don't maintain updated dynasty rankings, but I'd probably slot him in at #8 on your list.

 

[Tau837]

Much like with QBs, I don't put a big premium on fringe TE1 types in non TE-premium formats because their production is so replaceable (i.e. Roethlisberger, Eli, Cutler). Only the real top end guys like Graham, Cameron, Gonzo, and Witten make any real difference. With that being the case, I'd generally rather have a player with higher bust risk, but a higher ceiling. Which is how I see Pitta vs. Green.

How many teams are in the dynsty leagues where you play? I'm only in one true dynasty league, and its a 14 teamer. I think that skews my valuation. In a 14 team league, pitta gives you a big advantage over the guy starting ladarius green this year. There are teams without a startable tight end who have to run to the waiver wire when a scrub like marcedes lewis catches a td. And teams who head into the season - or a midseason playoff run - without a clear starter at te. That drives the value of a pitta or olsen up substantially.But I understand what you're saying in ten team leagues, for example. In a ten teamer, a delanie walker can get you some points while you wait for a ladarius green to emerge. In that case, sure, swing for the fences.

The thing is, there are so many better places to swing for the fences than at tight end. How many tight ends put up this magical difference making production you're talking about? And for how long? Gronk is super elite, except he keeps getting hurt. Graham is even eliter, but he's screwed owners down the stretch in each of the last two seasons, and he's been dinged up a good bit because he catches a lot of balls, often over the middle, and the other team has to use bigger guys to cover/tackle him. That's part of the deal with tight end production - even the great ones have a limited window and get hurt.

It seems like guys are paying a huge premium to get the next big thing at tight end, when its much easier to find difference making running backs and receivers, and they last a lot longer when they hit. I think ladarius green owners (and the people who pay big prices to trade for him) are suckers. And while ladarius green may end up making that sentence look foolish, I would say the same thing about the umpteen te prospects out there who are all overvalued imo.

I must have missed the posts where people said they were paying a huge premium to acquire Green. I didn't. I picked him up off the waiver wire. But I don't think that matters with regard to how to rank him among other TEs, which is where this tangent started.

 

[eNdblu]

That sound you hear is Rob Housler's stock crashing

Ryan Burns @FtblSickness
Alrighty... RT @Eric_Edholm: Bruce Arians: "Tight ends for me block first, catch second. That's what the receivers are for." #cardinals

 

[Coeur de Lion]

That sound you hear is Rob Housler's stock crashing

Ryan Burns @FtblSickness

Alrighty... RT @Eric_Edholm: Bruce Arians: "Tight ends for me block first, catch second. That's what the receivers are for." #cardinals

Not exactly news. Arians is a vertical guy who uses his TEs and RBs less as receiver than almost anyone else. Always has, and likely always will.

 

[Terpman22]

That sound you hear is Rob Housler's stock crashing

Ryan Burns @FtblSickness

Alrighty... RT @Eric_Edholm: Bruce Arians: "Tight ends for me block first, catch second. That's what the receivers are for." #cardinals

Not exactly news. Arians is a vertical guy who uses his TEs and RBs less as receiver than almost anyone else. Always has, and likely always will.

I agree. Although I would argue if they lose Roberts, which seems likely, targets may actually go up for Ellington. But yeah. Housler blows C

 

[Faust]

Twitter:

Chris Burke ‏@ChrisBurke_SI

= "can't block" RT @jkatzenstein: Mayhew on Fauria: "I just think he's genetically pre-disposed to not be on the line as much."

 

[Faust]

Twitter:

Josh Norris ‏@JoshNorris

Man, Dwayne Allen went in the third-round. Forgot about that. Could be the next complete TE.

 

[Faust]

Twitter:

Chris Wesseling ‏@ChrisWesseling

Colts GM Grigson on TE Dwayne Allen: "The guy's a beast."

 

[ffguru56]

I really want to believe Eifert has top-5 potential, but I just didn't see it this year. I get that he was a rookie and has a lot to learn, but I expected to see more "wow" type stuff, and it just wasn't there. Certainly solid starter long-term, but nothing sold me on top-5.

Out of curiosity...do you feel as though the proven TE's in recent years have shown "wow type stuff" their first year?

 

[Gandalf]

Has anyone brought up Jordan Cameron yet? Have we seen his full potential yet? Will a new QB help or hurt his value?

 

[False Start]

Z. Ertz - PHI

D. Allen - IND

L. Green - SDC

T. Eifert - CIN

They are young and barely had a chance yet and in the same tier. So who holds the most value and who will be the best in dynasties this year and years to come?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

That sound you hear is Rob Housler's stock crashing

Ryan Burns @FtblSickness
Alrighty... RT @Eric_Edholm: Bruce Arians: "Tight ends for me block first, catch second. That's what the receivers are for." #cardinals

yeah this is no news flash

 

[cstu]

Z. Ertz - PHI

D. Allen - IND

L. Green - SDC

T. Eifert - CIN

They are young and barely had a chance yet and in the same tier. So who holds the most value and who will be the best in dynasties this year and years to come?

I'm lower on Allen than most - even though I think he's a great TE I don't see the fantasy upside I do with the other three.

It's close between the rest but I have them ranked Green, Ertz, Eifert.

 

[menobrown]

Has anyone brought up Jordan Cameron yet? Have we seen his full potential yet? Will a new QB help or hurt his value?

I discussed this another thread but I do think we've seen his full potential and I think due to his youth, 2013 year end production and lack of quality upper echelon TE's I think his trade value is higher now than it will be going forward. Obviously that's my opinion and others value him much higher which is also why I think it's a good time to move him if you have him.

 

[ClownDogs]

Has anyone brought up Jordan Cameron yet? Have we seen his full potential yet? Will a new QB help or hurt his value?

I discussed this another thread but I do think we've seen his full potential and I think due to his youth, 2013 year end production and lack of quality upper echelon TE's I think his trade value is higher now than it will be going forward. Obviously that's my opinion and others value him much higher which is also why I think it's a good time to move him if you have him.

Agree with this. I dealt him in a 16 team, 1.5ppr for TE league and got Cruz/Pitta, which i think was well more than enough.

 

[menobrown]

That sound you hear is Rob Housler's stock crashing

Ryan Burns @FtblSickness
Alrighty... RT @Eric_Edholm: Bruce Arians: "Tight ends for me block first, catch second. That's what the receivers are for." #cardinals

yeah this is no news flash

No not news just further confirmation that Housler is an ill fit for this offense. When the Cardinals drafted Housler I thought it was an odd fit. As a Steeler fan let's just say I noticed little different in TE usage with Whiz as OC versus Arians as OC. Neither featured the TE much. For the past 11 seasons, not counting 2013, Whiz has been a OC or HC and in that timeframe his teams have been in the bottom 3 in targets to TE's 7 out of those 11 years and only once cracking the top 20 at number 18.

I do think Whiz saw what teams like NE were doing and wanted to involve the TE more which is why he selected Housler but it never panned out and a lot of that was on Houslers lack of ability to stay healthy and productive.

Long story a lot of Housler's issues are on him but he's played his entire career in crappy TE featured offenses. The Cardinals trading him is one of those deals that should get made but probably won't. Housler needs to stay healthy and do a better job catching the ball but I do see tremendous upside but I don't think we have a chance to see production before 2015. I'm holding him in one league I'm weak as could be at TE, but otherwise I think the play with him is to pick him up late next year of next off season.

 

[EBF]

Has anyone brought up Jordan Cameron yet? Have we seen his full potential yet? Will a new QB help or hurt his value?

I think he's an underrated player right now. What's his dynasty ADP? 5th round? I would probably be comfortable taking him in the 3rd. In a TE-premium league he could be worth a 2nd rounder or even a late 1st. He has all of the qualities that I look for in a player. Good production. Elite athletic tools. Passes the eyeball test. I think there would be a lot more hype if he had been a bigger name in college and/or if the second half of his season wasn't so quiet in FF terms.

I don't know if we've seen his ceiling yet, but if we have then I'm fine with that. His end of the season totals were outstanding this past year.

By my count there are only 9 other active TEs in the NFL who have ever eclipsed 900 receiving yards in a single season:

Brent Celek

Dallas Clark

Vernon Davis

Antonio Gates

Tony Gonzalez

Jimmy Graham

Rob Gronkowski

Kellen Winslow

Jason Witten

There's only one total fluke on that list (Brent Celek). The rest of those guys are Pro Bowl caliber talents. So to me this suggests that if a TE can put together even one great yardage season, there's a pretty good chance that he's a premium talent. And when you add on the fact that Cameron is one of the freakiest height/weight/speed athletes at the position in the league (6'5"+ 254 pounds with low 4.5 speed and solid leaping ability), I'm pretty comfortable assuming that he's a legitimate standout player rather than just some mediocrity who had a lucky season ala Zach Miller, Brent Celek, Brandon Myers, or Heath Miller.

 

[cstu]

No not news just further confirmation that Housler is an ill fit for this offense. When the Cardinals drafted Housler I thought it was an odd fit. As a Steeler fan let's just say I noticed little different in TE usage with Whiz as OC versus Arians as OC. Neither featured the TE much. For the past 11 seasons, not counting 2013, Whiz has been a OC or HC and in that timeframe his teams have been in the bottom 3 in targets to TE's 7 out of those 11 years and only once cracking the top 20 at number 18.

I do think Whiz saw what teams like NE were doing and wanted to involve the TE more which is why he selected Housler but it never panned out and a lot of that was on Houslers lack of ability to stay healthy and productive.

Long story a lot of Housler's issues are on him but he's played his entire career in crappy TE featured offenses. The Cardinals trading him is one of those deals that should get made but probably won't. Housler needs to stay healthy and do a better job catching the ball but I do see tremendous upside but I don't think we have a chance to see production before 2015. I'm holding him in one league I'm weak as could be at TE, but otherwise I think the play with him is to pick him up late next year of next off season.

He's a solid hold for 2015 if you can afford the roster space. If he can stay healthy finally he should be the top free agent TE next year.

 

[ffgiant]

Will Andrew Quarless be Green Bay's next starting TE? He did good with backup QB, not much when A Rogers came back, which makes me wonder if GB's going to draft a TE in the coming draft.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Will Andrew Quarless be Green Bay's next starting TE? He did good with backup QB, not much when A Rogers came back, which makes me wonder if GB's going to draft a TE in the coming draft.

He's a free agent, so obviously they'd need to re-sign him first. With that said, he's more of a blocker than a pass catcher, kind of slow and lumbering - not an ideal fantasy asset IMO.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Will Andrew Quarless be Green Bay's next starting TE? He did good with backup QB, not much when A Rogers came back, which makes me wonder if GB's going to draft a TE in the coming draft.

He's a free agent, so obviously they'd need to re-sign him first. With that said, he's more of a blocker than a pass catcher, kind of slow and lumbering - not an ideal fantasy asset IMO.

Finley coming back anyway

 

[Denver724]

Will Andrew Quarless be Green Bay's next starting TE? He did good with backup QB, not much when A Rogers came back, which makes me wonder if GB's going to draft a TE in the coming draft.

He's a free agent, so obviously they'd need to re-sign him first. With that said, he's more of a blocker than a pass catcher, kind of slow and lumbering - not an ideal fantasy asset IMO.

Finley coming back anyway

I think Finley is a FA too.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Will Andrew Quarless be Green Bay's next starting TE? He did good with backup QB, not much when A Rogers came back, which makes me wonder if GB's going to draft a TE in the coming draft.

He's a free agent, so obviously they'd need to re-sign him first. With that said, he's more of a blocker than a pass catcher, kind of slow and lumbering - not an ideal fantasy asset IMO.

Finley coming back anyway

I think Finley is a FA too.

yeap, they'll resign him

 

[FavreAndAwayAnIdiot]

Will Andrew Quarless be Green Bay's next starting TE? He did good with backup QB, not much when A Rogers came back, which makes me wonder if GB's going to draft a TE in the coming draft.

No. Green Bay's starting TE for 2014 is not yet on their roster.

 

[Buddy Ball 2K3]

Thoughts on Ryan Griffin? I am a buyer

 

[FavreAndAwayAnIdiot]

I really want to believe Eifert has top-5 potential, but I just didn't see it this year. I get that he was a rookie and has a lot to learn, but I expected to see more "wow" type stuff, and it just wasn't there. Certainly solid starter long-term, but nothing sold me on top-5.

Out of curiosity...do you feel as though the proven TE's in recent years have shown "wow type stuff" their first year?

At TE, no. At least not from the top prospects, but I'm not sure how far back you want to go. Generally, but not always, "special" players show you something their rookie year, even if everything else is inconsistent, that hints that the elite pro-level talent is there and once their head stops spinning from their NFL initiation, they will take it to the next level. Talent and ability of top-5-type players shines through in fleeting glimpses, even as a rookie. Eifert obviously has some skills, but I don't see top-5. So far, at least.

 

[Denver724]

Thoughts on Ryan Griffin? I am a buyer

Love him. I have him on 75%+ of my rosters. I can't wait to see how he is used by the new staff.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Anyone wanna post some rankings

[SIZE=small]1[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Jimmy Graham[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]2[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Rob Gronkowski[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]3[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Vernon Davis[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]4[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Tyler Eifert[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]5[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Jordan Cameron[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]6[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Jordan Reed[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]7[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Julius Thomas[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]8[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Jason Witten[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]9[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Kyle Rudolph[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]10[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Greg Olsen[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]11[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Dennis Pitta[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]12[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Ladarius Green[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]13[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Zach Ertz[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]14[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Dwayne Allen[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]15[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Joseph Fauria[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]16[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Coby Fleener[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]17[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Heath Miller[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]18[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Charles Clay[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]19[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Brandon Bostwick[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]20[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Martellus Bennett[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]21[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Rob Housler[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]22[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Antonio Gates[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]23[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Garrett Graham[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]24[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Travis Kelce[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]25[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Jared Cook[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]26[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Jermichael Finley[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]27[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Vance McDonald[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]28[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Jeff Cumberland[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]29[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Owen Daniels[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]30[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Jermaine Greshem[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]31[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Gavin Escobar[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]32[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Zach Sudfeld[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]33[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Luke Wilson[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]34[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Fred Davis[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small]35[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Brandon Pettigrew[/SIZE]

I've highlighted some names I think are particularly interesting.

Some mroe thoughts:

No Griffin? What's his situation vs Daniels & Graham?

What happens in Cincy to make Eifert increase in value?

In terms of value, like now I like Reed, Rudolph, Pitta. Then Ertz, Kelce, Fauria.

 

[karmarooster]

IMO, Reed and Green showed more "wow" factor than Eifert, all as rookies. Eifert looks - if not vaguely pedestrian - at least no more than above average, PLUS he's got the timeshare with Gresham for some indeterminate amount of time.

It has happened a few times where the first TE drafted turns out to be not all that special... see: Gresham himself, Pettigrew, Fleener.

Cameron, Reed and Thomas have already shown more than Eifert, and should be a tier above him. Eifert should fall into the 'could still turn into something' tier just below, including Green, Ertz, Rudolph, and Allen.

 

[EBF]

IMO, Reed and Green showed more "wow" factor than Eifert, all as rookies. Eifert looks - if not vaguely pedestrian - at least no more than above average, PLUS he's got the timeshare with Gresham for some indeterminate amount of time.

Green had 4 catches as a rookie.

I think Eifert was fine for a rookie. Rookie TEs typically aren't very productive (go back and look at what Gonzo/Graham/Witten/Gates did as rookies). In the context of the typical rookie TE season, his numbers were fine. He's not a FREAK athlete like Jimmy Graham, but he's the next rung down. Quick, rangy, and relatively fast for a player that size. He will be fine. Somewhere between Greg Olsen and Jason Witten. If you want some wow factor, I thought this was a nice play:

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000279142/Eifert-40-yard-reception

I have him ranked at dynasty TE4 behind Graham, Gronk, and Cameron. I don't understand ranking him ahead of Cameron because Cameron is a freakier athlete and has already yielded one elite season, but everyone else has question marks of their own. Reed is undersized with concussion issues. Rudolph has been mediocre for years. The proven stars like Davis and Witten are getting very old. Ebron is interesting, but overall not clearly a better prospect than Eifert.

Year two is usually where you see the big improvements with TEs, so I'd expect the 2014 Eifert to be pretty close to the "real" Tyler Eifert. Whatever that may be.

 

[jurb26]

Z. Ertz - PHI

D. Allen - IND

L. Green - SDC

T. Eifert - CIN

They are young and barely had a chance yet and in the same tier. So who holds the most value and who will be the best in dynasties this year and years to come?

Value is currently on the side of Allen, due to his missing last season. If I were to rank them simply as players I'd go;Ertz

Allen

Eifert

Green

I thought Ertz was the best receiving TE in last years draft and actually had him ranked as my #1 rookie TE. A bit unconventional given the hype around Eifert. Eifert is the better overall player IMO, but Ertz will prove more fantasy valuable I think. Allen is in a great situation getting to play with Luck. I thought he clearly separated himself 2 years ago and was poised for a break out year. Unfortunately injury derailed that.

This really is a hard group to sort thru. I do t have much separation between any of them.

 

[karmarooster]

IMO, Reed and Green showed more "wow" factor than Eifert, all as rookies. Eifert looks - if not vaguely pedestrian - at least no more than above average, PLUS he's got the timeshare with Gresham for some indeterminate amount of time.

Green had 4 catches as a rookie.

I think Eifert was fine for a rookie. Rookie TEs typically aren't very productive (go back and look at what Gonzo/Graham/Witten/Gates did as rookies). In the context of the typical rookie TE season, his numbers were fine. He's not a FREAK athlete like Jimmy Graham, but he's the next rung down. Quick, rangy, and relatively fast for a player that size. He will be fine. Somewhere between Greg Olsen and Jason Witten. If you want some wow factor, I thought this was a nice play:

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000279142/Eifert-40-yard-reception

I have him ranked at dynasty TE4 behind Graham, Gronk, and Cameron. I don't understand ranking him ahead of Cameron because Cameron is a freakier athlete and has already yielded one elite season, but everyone else has question marks of their own. Reed is undersized with concussion issues. Rudolph has been mediocre for years. The proven stars like Davis and Witten are getting very old. Ebron is interesting, but overall not clearly a better prospect than Eifert.

Year two is usually where you see the big improvements with TEs, so I'd expect the 2014 Eifert to be pretty close to the "real" Tyler Eifert. Whatever that may be.

Oops, I was thinking that last year was Green's rookie season. In any case, Eifert may not have that jump in production until he's the clear TE1 without Gresham cutting into his stats, and IIRC, that's not certain to be any time soon.

Re: Reed vs. Eifert, I have to give the nod to Reed based on having bette production and better opportunity in the short to medium-term. I just don't put that much stock into the concussion because I think the dumpster-fire factor was at least a factor in him getting shut down at the end of the season.

I'd go something like:

-Graham/Gronk

-Thomas/Cameron/Reed

-VD and Olsen as vets in their own tier, limited future upside but wheels not falling off super soon

-Eifert, Green, Allen, Ertz, Rudolph as upside guys who are all still very young, all of which have potential but have shown flashes of upside to be different makers. Pitta, Ebron, VSJ, and Oregon-Coke-Head (forget his name) could easily be in this tier.

-A bunch of JAGs and Too Olds.

 

[karmarooster]

Did a little more digging on Eifert and Gresham... Gresham is still just 25 (!?!), and has had more yards, receptions, and TDs in every season than Eifert, including his rookie season (52/471/4 vs. 39/445/2).

Even assuming that Gresham is gone and Eifert can be the main TE despite his blocking deficiency, Eifert is still probably the 3rd best Red Zone target on the team behind AJG and Jones.

I just think if you're paying TE4 price for Eifert, or valuing him as such, you're assuming that everything will work out perfectly, with no margin for error. I'd much rather have Rudolph, who will pop with Norv (and will be 24 going into next season, same as EIfert) -- we already know he's a red zone beast, and can be expected to put up more yards. Even last year Rudolph's 30/300/3 over 8 games works out to 60/600/6, and that's without the Norv factor. That's what we might expect from Eifert two years from now as the main TE.

Further, on Reed, yes he's lacking in size for a proto-TE, but I don't think that gives Eifert a leg up on him since both are deficient in blocking, it's just that Eifert is bigger and should be better at blocking while we all know Reed is a pseudo-TE who won't be asked to block.

I think that's enough poo-pooing Eifert for now, if someone wants to take the other side of the debate.

 

[JetMaxx]

It's easy to throw Graham Gronk VD out there but I want to know who's taking the jump next. Give me Ertz, everything is lined up for him. Coopers size in the red zone is likely gone, 2nd year emergence, etc.

 

[EBF]

I think one of the challenges is trying to separate the player from his situation and statistics. I think Eifert is simply a much better talent than someone like Rudolph. Higher pick. More versatile. Better athlete. Here's how they stack up in terms of combine measurables:

Rudolph

6'6.125", 259 pounds

40 - 4.83

Vertical - 34.5"

Broad Jump - 9'5"
Three Cone - 7.24

Eifert

6'5.5" 250 pounds

40 - 4.65

Vertical - 35.5"

Broad Jump - 9'11"
Three Cone - 6.92

Rudolph is a little bit bigger than Eifert and better in the red zone. Eifert is better in every other way. He has a much higher chance of developing into a legitimate impact player. Rudolph is just a big body with decent hands. Eifert is a WR/TE hybrid. His rookie yards per reception outstrips the best season of Rudolph's three year NFL career. Generally if a TE is going to become a world beater, you'd see signs of it within his first two seasons of extensive playing time. That's a problem for Rudolph.

The situation is a non-factor for me. If the Bengals liked Gresham then I doubt they would've drafted Rudolph. Moreover, TEs can coexist in the same offense (see: Gronk + Hernandez). I think if you strip away all of the noise, Eifert is a good prospect with a bright future. I like Rudolph as a cheap low end TE1 fix, but that's it. The upside to become something special isn't there.

 

[karmarooster]

We've seen what a big body with decent hands can do in the Norv offense, even on a team with a terrible QB situation, and it's Jordan Cameron. I don't have the combine numbers but you might point out that Cameron has a few tenths of a second here, and a few inches in the jumps there, but given that Eifert and Rudolph are the same age, I don't think you can write off Rudolph and say "well if he was going to be anything he'd already have shown it." And anyways, he did already kind of show it with 9 TDs the year before last. It's just that Rudolph came into the league extremely young at a position that usually takes a number of years to develop. Rudolph is just 11 months older.

I agree that Eifert is a good prospect with a bright future, but I don't think there's much here to say he's a tier ahead of Rudolph in terms of prospect/future.

I tend to think that Norv changes everything, probably in part because I bought in big on the Cameron hype last year and it paid off. I tend to think that between Rudolph and Eifert, Rudolph will be the one to pop in value first, even if Eifert does so himself in 2015.

 

[EBF]

We've seen what a big body with decent hands can do in the Norv offense, even on a team with a terrible QB situation, and it's Jordan Cameron. I don't have the combine numbers but you might point out that Cameron has a few tenths of a second here, and a few inches in the jumps there

Yea, you could say that. Rudolph and Cameron are almost polar opposites in terms of athletic ability. People seem to be down on Cameron relative to his achievements and I think maybe part of that is because they don't realize what a freaky athlete he is. Look at the tale of the tape:

Jordan Cameron

6'5 1/4" 254 pounds

40 - 4.53

Broad Jump - 9'11"

Vertical - 37.5"

Three Cone - 6.82

It is pretty rare to find an athlete that size who can also move that well. To put those numbers into context, consider the recent combine performance of a big WR who's widely expected to go in the first round of the draft in May:

Mike Evans

6'4 5/8" 231 pounds

40 - 4.53

Broad Jump - ??

Vertical - 37"

Three Cone - 7.08

With an extra inch of height and twenty pounds of additional weight, Cameron matched the 40 time, had a better three cone time, and a better vertical. He is quite literally a WR in a TE's body. There aren't very many of those walking around the league. I think the people who attribute Cameron's success to Norv Turner are woefully misguided. Norv Turner didn't make him 6'5" 250 with 4.5 speed and WR route running skills. Those are qualities that he already possessed. Norv Turner merely helped put him in a situation to utilize his talents. That's all that any coach can really do.

They don't have the power to fundamentally change the nature of what a player does. Kyle Rudolph is not a big play threat because Kyle Rudolph is not explosive. A new OC might help him thrive in situations where he can use his skills, but he's not going to turn him into a different human being. It goes back to what I said about being able to separate the athlete from the situation and the usage. I don't think Kyle Rudolph has been put in an ideal situation to succeed. At the same time, it's abundantly clear that Kyle Rudolph isn't any kind of a freak athlete. It's right there on paper in his workout numbers and also his NFL performance. He does not break big plays. His yards per reception is low. His yards per target has been pretty horrible. Most of that is on him.

Eifert isn't on the level of Cameron as an athletic specimen, but he's well above the likes of Rudolph. I really don't care about Gresham, Jones, Dalton, or anyone else on the team. Those factors will wash away in dynasty, where I'm more concerned with pegging the player at the value justified by his talent level rather than buying the situation. I don't think Eifert has any real chance to become a Jimmy Graham type of dominator, but there aren't many outside of the obvious top 2-3 who offer more talent based on what I can see. Hence why I rank him as TE4.

 

[ShaHBucks]

We've seen what a big body with decent hands can do in the Norv offense, even on a team with a terrible QB situation, and it's Jordan Cameron. I don't have the combine numbers but you might point out that Cameron has a few tenths of a second here, and a few inches in the jumps there

Yea, you could say that. Rudolph and Cameron are almost polar opposites in terms of athletic ability. People seem to be down on Cameron relative to his achievements and I think maybe part of that is because they don't realize what a freaky athlete he is. Look at the tale of the tape:

Jordan Cameron

6'5 1/4" 254 pounds

40 - 4.53

Broad Jump - 9'11"

Vertical - 37.5"

Three Cone - 6.82

It is pretty rare to find an athlete that size who can also move that well. To put those numbers into context, consider the recent combine performance of a big WR who's widely expected to go in the first round of the draft in May:

Mike Evans

6'4 5/8" 231 pounds

40 - 4.53

Broad Jump - ??

Vertical - 37"

Three Cone - 7.08

With an extra inch of height and twenty pounds of additional weight, Cameron matched the 40 time, had a better three cone time, and a better vertical. He is quite literally a WR in a TE's body. There aren't very many of those walking around the league. I think the people who attribute Cameron's success to Norv Turner are woefully misguided. Norv Turner didn't make him 6'5" 250 with 4.5 speed and WR route running skills. Those are qualities that he already possessed. Norv Turner merely helped put him in a situation to utilize his talents. That's all that any coach can really do.

They don't have the power to fundamentally change the nature of what a player does. Kyle Rudolph is not a big play threat because Kyle Rudolph is not explosive. A new OC might help him thrive in situations where he can use his skills, but he's not going to turn him into a different human being. It goes back to what I said about being able to separate the athlete from the situation and the usage. I don't think Kyle Rudolph has been put in an ideal situation to succeed. At the same time, it's abundantly clear that Kyle Rudolph isn't any kind of a freak athlete. It's right there on paper in his workout numbers and also his NFL performance. He does not break big plays. His yards per reception is low. His yards per target has been pretty horrible. Most of that is on him.

Eifert isn't on the level of Cameron as an athletic specimen, but he's well above the likes of Rudolph. I really don't care about Gresham, Jones, Dalton, or anyone else on the team. Those factors will wash away in dynasty, where I'm more concerned with pegging the player at the value justified by his talent level rather than buying the situation. I don't think Eifert has any real chance to become a Jimmy Graham type of dominator, but there aren't many outside of the obvious top 2-3 who offer more talent based on what I can see. Hence why I rank him as TE4.

I do. He'll need the darn targets though smh

 

[Biabreakable]

The situation is a non-factor for me.

If situation were more of a factor for you then it might have led you to value Cameron more last season expecting a break out due to Norv Turner being the OC.

Then you would not be moving Cameron way up in your rankings because of how Cameron performed in Turners offense.

You also would not be turning a blind eye to how bad the QBs have been in MN during Rudolphs short career thus far. But that now he is in that same Turner offense.

You also would be thinking about the short term perceived value on Eifert likely taking a hit from not meeting very high expectations due to another high quality TE that is competing for playing time, along with some quality WR targets as well as a RB receiving threat now.

Not looking at situation makes it so you cannot ride the wave of perceived value fluctuating due to situation and circumstances that you ignore. It does give a talent based/long term view on a players value. Incidentally I do not think your yardage argument supports that view point very well. As that result is surely at least in part due to situation.

Something I have always enjoyed/annoyed about your perspective on things.

 

[EBF]

If situation were more of a factor for you then it might have led you to value Cameron more last season expecting a break out due to Norv Turner being the OC.

Then you would not be moving Cameron way up in your rankings because of how Cameron performed in Turners offense.

I'm not operating under the assumption that Turner's offense was any significant factor in Cameron's success. I attribute his breakout more to the qualities of the player than the coaching. I think the timing of his learning curve and development coinciding with Turner's arrival makes that a convenient explanation, but I think he would've put up big numbers even with Ted Turner at OC. The reason Norv's TEs have been productive in recent years is because those TEs were Antonio Gates and Jordan Cameron, not because their OC was Norv Turner.

I won't say situation is completely irrelevant. It's important for mediocre players. It's not particularly important for great players. Great players thrive anywhere with any coach. And since talent is a lot more stable than situation, situation ends up being a relatively minor concern of mine in dynasty. Especially when it comes to WRs and TEs. A RB can only produce if he's featured and any featured RB will have immediate value even if he's not particularly good, but the pass catchers aren't as bound by their usage and scheme with a few minor exceptions (mainly the mediocre WRs who need a great QB and/or lots of targets to put up stats).

Like I said, isolate the player from his usage. That's why I have Jordan Cameron clearly ahead of Julius Thomas and Tyler Eifert clearly ahead of Kyle Rudolph. You can give Kyle Rudolph a new OC and a new quarterback. He'll still be the same unexplosive plodding 4.8 possession receiver who can't beat an NFL defender deep to save his life. Maybe that will be enough to have a fluke big year or two ala Heath Miller/Marcedes Lewis, but it's not going to make him Jordan Cameron in the long run.

I actually like Rudolph as a bounce back buy low candidate, but you have to know what you're getting going in. He's a TE8-TE12 for life. Simply lacks the athletic qualities to be a dynamic difference-maker.