Aaron Brooks will be the #1 fantasy QB this year (1 Viewer)

[Tau837]

2006 Aaron Brooks = 2005 Kerry Collins

There was alot of hype last year in how great Collins would do for the Raiders with many of the same reasons Brooks should do well.

I see Brooks falling in the 10 - 15 range with a healthy Moss. #1 is a far stretch for Brooks. Although he was Top 8 most seasons played, his numbers declined over the last three.

Funny, Collins finished as QB9 last season, playing only 15 games, most of which did not include a healthy Moss (or Curry).As for Brooks' numbers declining over the past three seasons, here are his fantasy point totals for 2001-2005, his 5 seasons as a starter: 315, 309, 295, 300, 219. Personally, I don't think last season's Katrina-influenced disaster is a useful predictor. That leaves 4 straight consistent top 8 seasons.

I don't get why anyone would think Brooks cannot finish as high as Collins last year, unless your reasoning is he won't start the entire season.

 

[Tau837]

With Jerry Porter, Randy Moss, Lamont Jordan at his disposal, I think Brooks is going to put up some gaudy numbers and is going to be the #1 fantasy QB this season, unless of course, your league deducts points for INTs, fumbles lost, etc/

Sub in Donte Stallworth, Joe Horn, and Deuce McAllister (a reasonably comparable trio) and he was only a weak #1/solid #2 fantasy QB. I doubt the upgrade from Horn to Moss (assuming Porter = Stallworth and Deuce = Jordan) will make much of an impact. I think the only way Brooks finishes above the #7 or #8 position is if he commits himself to being more of a student of the game. A change of scenery will be nice, but not enough to catapult him to one of the top QB spots.

I guess you must be referring only to last season, since Brooks finished as QB 6, 6, 5, 8 from 2001-2004. Or maybe you play in 6 team leagues?If you want to use 2005 as a predictor, I think you're making a mistake. Not only did Katrina happen, but also Brooks, Horn, and McAllister all missed 3+ games.

 

[Football Jones]

I'll bet a dollar to a doughnut Walter finishes the season as the starter. And I'm not predicting an injury to Brooks. I suspect Brooks will be somewhat of a disappointment & they'll turn to Walter when/if they fall out of the playoff race to give him some time under center to better prepare him for '07.

I think Brooks was brought in essentially as a bridge to Walter. The Raiders are set to win now & they would likely stay with Brooks as long as they're in the playoff race. However, I predict they'll fall out of contention towards the end of the season. They're not quite a playoff team yet, IMO. They could be with Walter at the helm, though. I believe he has a much higher ceiling than Brooks & could definitely make a difference (in '07).

 

[Crimedogg32]

With Jerry Porter, Randy Moss, Lamont Jordan at his disposal, I think Brooks is going to put up some gaudy numbers and is going to be the #1 fantasy QB this season, unless of course, your league deducts points for INTs, fumbles lost, etc/

Sub in Donte Stallworth, Joe Horn, and Deuce McAllister (a reasonably comparable trio) and he was only a weak #1/solid #2 fantasy QB. I doubt the upgrade from Horn to Moss (assuming Porter = Stallworth and Deuce = Jordan) will make much of an impact. I think the only way Brooks finishes above the #7 or #8 position is if he commits himself to being more of a student of the game. A change of scenery will be nice, but not enough to catapult him to one of the top QB spots.

I guess you must be referring only to last season, since Brooks finished as QB 6, 6, 5, 8 from 2001-2004. Or maybe you play in 6 team leagues?If you want to use 2005 as a predictor, I think you're making a mistake. Not only did Katrina happen, but also Brooks, Horn, and McAllister all missed 3+ games.

Also during those years I dont think Saints #2 WR was as good then as Porter is now

 

[The Jacket]

The only thing that has kept him form 2003 form is health.

Simply not true. It may be the principal reason for Moss' slide in production, but it's certainly not limited to his health. Unless, of course, you are claiming, by omission, that Kerry Collins is as good as Daunte Culpepper.

 

[jurb26]

The only thing that has kept him form 2003 form is health.

Simply not true. It may be the principal reason for Moss' slide in production, but it's certainly not limited to his health. Unless, of course, you are claiming, by omission, that Kerry Collins is as good as Daunte Culpepper.

 

[David Yudkin]

I'll bet a dollar to a doughnut Walter finishes the season as the starter. And I'm not predicting an injury to Brooks. I suspect Brooks will be somewhat of a disappointment & they'll turn to Walter when/if they fall out of the playoff race to give him some time under center to better prepare him for '07.

I think Brooks was brought in essentially as a bridge to Walter. The Raiders are set to win now & they would likely stay with Brooks as long as they're in the playoff race. However, I predict they'll fall out of contention towards the end of the season. They're not quite a playoff team yet, IMO. They could be with Walter at the helm, though. I believe he has a much higher ceiling than Brooks & could definitely make a difference.

IMO, the Raiders are a long way from winning much of anything now, so they are in a transitional period. Brooks was brought in short term and Walters will probably get a shot late this year as he is beloved be the front office (at least from what I've seen). If Brooks works out--great--he stays for another season. If Walters works out--great--they try him as a starter in 2007. If neither guy works out, they draft a franchise QB or sign another FA next year.

 

[Reagan]

first of all, I am not a Raider fan nor do I own Brooks in any of my fantasy leagues

with that being said, I think that Brooks is going to be the #1 fantasy QB this season in terms of production (passing yards/TDs).

I personally think that Brooks is a clown and will never become the type of QB that will lead a team to the playoffs and beyond, and he is largely responsible, and the main reason why the Saints always underachieved and were mediocre from year to year.

I see the wheels coming off early on the Raiders season and am predicting somewhere in the neighborhood of 5,6, or possibly 7 wins for them. Early on I think Brooks will focus on personal stats rather than winning games, and he will get worse and worse about it as the Raiders stuggle to win games. I think the Raiders would be much better off starting from scratch and letting Andrew Walter take the reigns of this high powered offense

With Jerry Porter, Randy Moss, Lamont Jordan at his disposal, I think Brooks is going to put up some gaudy numbers and is going to be the #1 fantasy QB this season, unless of course, your league deducts points for INTs, fumbles lost, etc/

I also believe that with the loss of Edgerrin James, the Colts will become too one dimensional, thus hurting Manning's numbers. Teams are going to get extra DBs on the field and force the Colts to use the ground game to beat them

Anyone else think Brooks is going to have a big big year in terms of fantasy production??

riding and crashing your motorcycle w/o a helmet? j/k. Maybe top 10, no way #1. I've had him before. As others have said......erratic, selfish, unreliable.....rd 8 at earliest and could be had later.

 

[Football Jones]

I'll bet a dollar to a doughnut Walter finishes the season as the starter. And I'm not predicting an injury to Brooks. I suspect Brooks will be somewhat of a disappointment & they'll turn to Walter when/if they fall out of the playoff race to give him some time under center to better prepare him for '07.

I think Brooks was brought in essentially as a bridge to Walter. The Raiders are set to win now & they would likely stay with Brooks as long as they're in the playoff race. However, I predict they'll fall out of contention towards the end of the season. They're not quite a playoff team yet, IMO. They could be with Walter at the helm, though. I believe he has a much higher ceiling than Brooks & could definitely make a difference.

IMO, the Raiders are a long way from winning much of anything now, so they are in a transitional period. Brooks was brought in short term and Walters will probably get a shot late this year as he is beloved be the front office (at least from what I've seen). If Brooks works out--great--he stays for another season. If Walters works out--great--they try him as a starter in 2007. If neither guy works out, they draft a franchise QB or sign another FA next year.

You might be right. I probably should've wrote, "The Raiders want to win now." That said, they have potential on both sides of the ball, IMO, but it's true they haven't come close to putting it all together.

 

[There it is]

I'll bet a dollar to a doughnut Walter finishes the season as the starter. And I'm not predicting an injury to Brooks. I suspect Brooks will be somewhat of a disappointment & they'll turn to Walter when/if they fall out of the playoff race to give him some time under center to better prepare him for '07.

I think Brooks was brought in essentially as a bridge to Walter. The Raiders are set to win now & they would likely stay with Brooks as long as they're in the playoff race. However, I predict they'll fall out of contention towards the end of the season. They're not quite a playoff team yet, IMO. They could be with Walter at the helm, though. I believe he has a much higher ceiling than Brooks & could definitely make a difference.

IMO, the Raiders are a long way from winning much of anything now, so they are in a transitional period. Brooks was brought in short term and Walters will probably get a shot late this year as he is beloved be the front office (at least from what I've seen). If Brooks works out--great--he stays for another season. If Walters works out--great--they try him as a starter in 2007. If neither guy works out, they draft a franchise QB or sign another FA next year.

Sean Salisbary and John Clayton on The Huddle just agreed that Walter was being groomed and will take over by mid-season.

 

[CalBear]

Sean Salisbary and John Clayton on The Huddle just agreed that Walter was being groomed and will take over by mid-season.

So all that is left to be seen is whether Walter winds up being as good as Todd Bouman. Because he's never going to be a good NFL QB.

 

[There it is]

From the FBG blog: Moss likes him.

Raiders WR Moss Impressed With QB Walter

Adam Schein, FoxSports.com - [Full Article]

Oakland Raiders wide receiver Randy Moss recently said that he has been impressed this off-season with quarterback Andrew Walter. "I like Andrew Walter. With them taking him last year, everybody was wondering why they took him. We needed somebody who could play on the field and this and that. But with what I've seen, with him being tall, being able to see and read the defense, I like him. I like his upside," Moss said.

 

[NoCheese]

With Jerry Porter, Randy Moss, Lamont Jordan at his disposal, I think Brooks is going to put up some gaudy numbers and is going to be the #1 fantasy QB this season, unless of course, your league deducts points for INTs, fumbles lost, etc/

Sub in Donte Stallworth, Joe Horn, and Deuce McAllister (a reasonably comparable trio) and he was only a weak #1/solid #2 fantasy QB. I doubt the upgrade from Horn to Moss (assuming Porter = Stallworth and Deuce = Jordan) will make much of an impact. I think the only way Brooks finishes above the #7 or #8 position is if he commits himself to being more of a student of the game. A change of scenery will be nice, but not enough to catapult him to one of the top QB spots.

I guess you must be referring only to last season, since Brooks finished as QB 6, 6, 5, 8 from 2001-2004. Or maybe you play in 6 team leagues?If you want to use 2005 as a predictor, I think you're making a mistake. Not only did Katrina happen, but also Brooks, Horn, and McAllister all missed 3+ games.

His numbers have fallen consistently the last few years. 3546 yards and 24 TD's in 2003 (actually pretty good), 3810 and 21 TD's in 2004, and 2882 and 13 TD's in 2005. He's a terrible real life QB and an average fantasy QB. As I said, he's a weak #1/strong #2 in 10-12 team leagues. Am I suggesting he isn't capable of putting up respectable #'s this year? Of course not, but I think to expect anything more than 3600 yards and 23 TD's is expecting too much. Plus, as many have said, they may be looking towards the future as early as this season. There's 11 QB's I'd rather draft than Brooks this year.

 

[el-gato-grande]

Walter...Walter...WALTER.

Everybody better get on the bandwagon now because this guy can be had for cheap in dynasty and keeper leagues right now, but that will change heading into 2007. There isn't a better prospect out there (perhaps with the exception of Leinhart in Arizona) considering the receiving talent that he has to throw to. A classic example of a guy with the tools learning on the sidelines and waiting in the wings.

Redraft leagues needs to keep an eye out too since I agree with the other posts speculating that Brooks won't last the season as the starter.

 

[nerangers]

2006 Aaron Brooks = 2005 Kerry Collins

There was alot of hype last year in how great Collins would do for the Raiders with many of the same reasons Brooks should do well.

I see Brooks falling in the 10 - 15 range with a healthy Moss.  #1 is a far stretch for Brooks.  Although he was Top 8 most seasons played, his numbers declined over the last three.

Funny, Collins finished as QB9 last season, playing only 15 games, most of which did not include a healthy Moss (or Curry).As for Brooks' numbers declining over the past three seasons, here are his fantasy point totals for 2001-2005, his 5 seasons as a starter: 315, 309, 295, 300, 219. Personally, I don't think last season's Katrina-influenced disaster is a useful predictor. That leaves 4 straight consistent top 8 seasons.

I don't get why anyone would think Brooks cannot finish as high as Collins last year, unless your reasoning is he won't start the entire season.

I looked and he was ranked 9th in my dynasty league, but we don't take points away for interceptions and fumbles....that could change his ranking in my keeper and redraft league that does penalize for those.When I talk about Collins hype, it is because many had him top 3.

My comment was that he will not be the #1, and more likely ranked 10 - 15 based on his numbers decreasing over the last three years.

 

[ShotGunStyle]

Four straight seasons with 3500 yards, 25 total TDs, and one bad season where a hurricane blew away his home city and stadium, and now he sucks? I don't know if he'll be better than Manning, but why is it so crazy to think he'll have his best season when he's on a better team? If he can throw for 3800 yards and 27 TDs in Oakland, why can't he do 4000 and 30 TDs with Randy Moss and Oakland?

 

[MLBrandow]

Four straight seasons with 3500 yards, 25 total TDs, and one bad season where a hurricane blew away his home city and stadium, and now he sucks? I don't know if he'll be better than Manning, but why is it so crazy to think he'll have his best season when he's on a better team? If he can throw for 3800 yards and 27 TDs in Oakland, why can't he do 4000 and 30 TDs with Randy Moss and Oakland?

You forget this is an Oakland team that is has a mindset of being content with slightly above terrible.Even if he has a solid season, what he signed was essentially a one-year deal so they wouldn't have to force Walter into QB1 until he's 100% ready.

Brooks won't even be starting by the end of the season, when we're in the playoffs.

He's a 56% career passer who throws way too many INTs and fumbles the ball away like it's his job.

You guys really think he's going to light up Oakland when Davis is up in the skybox rooting for Walter to beat him out?

Also remember that NO under Brooks has on the whole been a much more talented team than OAK is right now. He also took snaps behind what was a pretty decent OL for much of that. OAK's OL is :X .

Moss is damaged goods, and Porter is about to mouth himself onto the bench or another team.

Not to mention every WR3 that tries to catch a pass over the middle because of their soft starting wideouts ruptures his achilles.

 

[ShotGunStyle]

Brooks reputation of being turnover prone is 100 percent false. Just look at the stats. His INTs per passing attempt for his career is nothing but average. His fumbles lost are average, and compared to other mobile QBs, good. I guess people just see the backwards pass and thing he doesn't know the first thing about reading defenses. You don't throw over 50 TDs and less than 25 INTs over two seasons if you can't read defense. It's impossible.

 

[NYG Endzone]

Brooks reputation of being turnover prone is 100 percent false. Just look at the stats. His INTs per passing attempt for his career is nothing but average. His fumbles lost are average, and compared to other mobile QBs, good. I guess people just see the backwards pass and thing he doesn't know the first thing about reading defenses. You don't throw over 50 TDs and less than 25 INTs over two seasons if you can't read defense. It's impossible.

Brooks is ranked 8th of 18 QB's (with at least 900 completions since 2002) for best INT/Attempt ratio. Worst is Brett.

Donovan McNabb	0.020531401Peyton Manning	0.023501199Brad Johnson	0.02407932Trent Green	0.025440313Tom Brady	0.025459689Matt Hasselbeck	0.026443605Steve McNair	0.026666667Aaron Brooks	0.027819175Drew Bledsoe	0.029688273Kerry Collins	0.029688973Drew Brees	0.029943503Jake Plummer	0.030504714Daunte Culpepper	0.032367973David Carr	0.032615385Jake Delhomme	0.032959327Marc Bulger	0.033730159Joey Harrington	0.034578918Brett Favre	0.037875289

 

[Tau837]

Brooks reputation of being turnover prone is 100 percent false. Just look at the stats. His INTs per passing attempt for his career is nothing but average. His fumbles lost are average, and compared to other mobile QBs, good. I guess people just see the backwards pass and thing he doesn't know the first thing about reading defenses. You don't throw over 50 TDs and less than 25 INTs over two seasons if you can't read defense. It's impossible.

I know this was already said, but:

 

[BigRed]

Look hun, its the azcards little boy. Quick, get him some fish.

lol - we may be the only 2 in this thread who got that joke. Anyway Brooks has potential to put up big numbers, esp given the weapons, but yeah he'll probably toss a healthy dose of INTs and drive OAK fans nuts too. And while I wouldn't want him as my starter, I'd be very happy w/him as my backup (esp since we score all TDs 6 pts). I don't think Walt is a big factor this year.

PS and oh btw his rep for throwing a lot of INTs is hardly 100% false. 3 of his 5 years as full-time starter he has thrown nearly as many - or more - INTs as TDs.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

With Jerry Porter, Randy Moss, Lamont Jordan at his disposal, I think Brooks is going to put up some gaudy numbers and is going to be the #1 fantasy QB this season, unless of course, your league deducts points for INTs, fumbles lost, etc/

Sub in Donte Stallworth, Joe Horn, and Deuce McAllister (a reasonably comparable trio) and he was only a weak #1/solid #2 fantasy QB. I doubt the upgrade from Horn to Moss (assuming Porter = Stallworth and Deuce = Jordan) will make much of an impact. I think the only way Brooks finishes above the #7 or #8 position is if he commits himself to being more of a student of the game. A change of scenery will be nice, but not enough to catapult him to one of the top QB spots.

I would say that Porter and Jordan are comparable to Stallworth and McAlister. Moss however is lightyears better than Horn and can do far more for a QB so long as healthy. Hell with Moss healthy KC did not throw a single INT. That my friend is incredible!

If Moss stays healthy, Brooks numbers go up. He can't be #1, but he can be top 10, in a miracle, top 5.

 

[The Jacket]

Four straight seasons with 3500 yards, 25 total TDs

And in only one of them he threw less than 15 interceptions. He also averaged more than 10 fumbles per season and has lost 20 of those. That's a lot. Not as bad as some would think, but it's more than most others.

but why is it so crazy to think he'll have his best season when he's on a better team?

Your arbitrary four-year window:New Orleans - 28 wins (which includes the hurricane which you used to defend Brooks in another point)Oakland - 24 wins (with no major natural disasters that effected the team)

If he can throw for 3800 yards and 27 TDs in Oakland, why can't he do 4000 and 30 TDs with Randy Moss and Oakland?

He threw 27 touchdowns and 15 interceptions four years ago. Seriously, lets talk about something in the last year or two. That's what most people use when discussing players. 2005 - 13 TD/17 INT2004 - 21 TD/16 INTAs for your actual question, I don't think it's out of the question that Brooks could throw 25 touchdowns. But I also think it's equally likely that he'll throw 14-18 intereceptions.He's a good player, and a good fantasy pick. But he's not the #1 fantasy quarterback. He's not in the class of Carson Palmer or Peyton Manning. Heck, he's not even a first round pick.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

Heck, he's not even a first round pick.

No QB is.

 

[T Man]

Brooks is usually a very, very solid fantasy QB. I could see him in the top 10 with his past history, but I think it is more likely that he does not. As an NFL QB, I feel like he has the talent to be a top 10 QB, but never will be.

Given his previous history with a lack of leadership and lack of fire, I do not see this as a good "mesh" with Coach Shell. I see him putting up good numbers in the first few weeks - so good fantasy numbers - but due to composure or other failures, the team will lose. At some point in the second half of the season, I see Shell trying to see what he has with his young QBs. If it's Tui first or Walter first, I do not know. But he will want to see what he has to determine whether he drafts one or goes the FA route.

Since I do not predict that he will finish the season as the starting QB, I can't see him finishing in the top 10.

 

[John Mamula]

People are calling Brooks a marginal QB1?

Year        Value        Pos. Rank    Overall Rank--------------------------------------------------2000           0            29            3362001          59             6             212002          44             6             362003          26             5             442004          32             8             462005           0            16            130--------------------------------------------------With the exception of his rookie year and last year, he is much more than that. There is a lot of perception not being backed up by facts in this thread.

 

[The Jacket]

Heck, he's not even a first round pick.

No QB is.

Peyton Manning is. Carson Palmer might be.

But, if you want to be picky, let me make it clearer: Brooks is not even CLOSE to being the #1 fantasy QB.

He shouldn't be taken in the first round, the second round, the third round and I question where he should be taken even after that.

He's not even the confirmed starter, for Jesus H. Christ's sake. Walter's a good-looking prospect and you know Al Davis loves the kind of skills he brings to the table. I wouldn't be surprised to see Brooks on the bench in week 10, and that assumes he may've started the season.

 

[John Mamula]

Heck, he's not even a first round pick.

No QB is.

Peyton Manning is. Carson Palmer might be.

X

 

[MelvinTScupper]

Heck, he's not even a first round pick.

No QB is.

Peyton Manning is. Carson Palmer might be.

Are you high right now?

 

[John Mamula]

He shouldn't be taken in the first round, the second round, the third round and I question where he should be taken even after that.

Even if you thought he was the #1 QB, why would you take him significantly earlier than his ADP?

 

[jurb26]

People are calling Brooks a marginal #1 fantasy QB?

Year Value Pos. Rank Overall Rank--------------------------------------------------2000 0 29 3362001 59 6 212002 44 6 362003 26 5 442004 32 8 462005 0 16 130--------------------------------------------------With the exception of his rookie year and last year, he is much more than that. There is a lot of perception not being backed up by facts in this thread.

I agree, people are letting their emotion get in the way of fantasy production with Brooks. Brooks is a great buy this year, no doubt in my mind. Everyone loves to hate him and he will be had rather cheap (round 10 ADP). Best of all, they only thing you need to do to cover your bets is draft Walter in like the last round of your draft or whatever. He is rather high on my target list.

 

[Tau837]

People are calling Brooks a marginal QB1?

Year        Value        Pos. Rank    Overall Rank--------------------------------------------------2000           0            29            3362001          59             6             212002          44             6             362003          26             5             442004          32             8             462005           0            16            130--------------------------------------------------With the exception of his rookie year and last year, he is much more than that. There is a lot of perception not being backed up by facts in this thread.

Thank you. Glad someone else sees this. The only reasons IMO to not consider Brooks a solid QB1 are (1) you play in 6 team leagues or (2) you are predicting that he will get benched.

I don't play in 6 team leagues, and I'm not sure how many, if any, on this board do. So I think we can dismiss that one.

I can see the argument that some use for him getting benched, along the lines of the team won't play well, they might want to see what they have in Walter. Not that I agree, but I can see it.

I disagree with the rest of the arguments here.

 

[MLBrandow]

I wouldn't consider someone who will be benched this season as my QB1.

And Walter isn't going to be starting on my fantasy squad at any point this season, so the idea of drafting him as "insurance" is laughable.

He's being drafted right where he should be. He has a decent amount of risk, very likely won't be starting during the playoffs when you'll need him most, and will probably produce pretty well (minus turnovers) until then.

If you draft Brooks, you'll have to spend a pick very shortly after on a QB2 who has a good playoff schedule.

 

[Tau837]

I agree, people are letting their emotion get in the way of fantasy production with Brooks. Brooks is a great buy this year, no doubt in my mind. Everyone loves to hate him and he will be had rather cheap (round 10 ADP). Best of all, they only thing you need to do to cover your bets is draft Walter in like the last round of your draft or whatever. His rather high on my target list.

Agreed. Per FBG ADP, he is currently the 107th player and 17th QB off the board.Even last year, with the Katrina disaster, with McAllister playing only 5 games, Horn missing 3 games and playing injured in others, and Brooks himself missing 3 games, he still finished as QB16.

 

[Tau837]

I wouldn't consider someone who will be benched this season as my QB1.

And Walter isn't going to be starting on my fantasy squad at any point this season, so the idea of drafting him as "insurance" is laughable.

He's being drafted right where he should be.  He has a decent amount of risk, very likely won't be starting during the playoffs when you'll need him most, and will probably produce pretty well (minus turnovers) until then.

If you draft Brooks, you'll have to spend a pick very shortly after on a QB2 who has a good playoff schedule.

I could be wrong here, but I don't think any of us saying Brooks offers value are suggesting that we'll use him as our QB1. See my previous post--he is currently being drafted as QB17.While I think he's being underrated, I'm not expecting him to be a top 5 QB. It is possible, if Moss reverts to form and Brooks plays all 16 games. In fact, in that scenario, I'd say Brooks is likely to be top 5. But I'm not predicting top 5, and that isn't required for him to be a good value play.

EDIT: From your comment about following quickly with a QB2 pick, it sounds like you're saying he really isn't being drafted where he should be, since he is currently the 17th QB drafted. Perhaps you thought he was being drafted earlier?

 

[The Jacket]

Are you high right now?

Merely a solid year for Manning: 3747 yards, 28 TDs. Are there 12 running backs and/or wide receivers who are going to score more than 18 touchdowns and rush for, without doing the math, 1250+ yards (in a 1 point per 10 yards rushing/30 passing league)?

Unless the league I play in is a lot different to the one you do, Manning is a solid bet at the end of round one. I can count on him for approximately (30x4 points), and I can't count on many running backs for (20x6 points).

 

[jurb26]

I wouldn't consider someone who will be benched this season as my QB1.

And Walter isn't going to be starting on my fantasy squad at any point this season, so the idea of drafting him as "insurance" is laughable.

He's being drafted right where he should be. He has a decent amount of risk, very likely won't be starting during the playoffs when you'll need him most, and will probably produce pretty well (minus turnovers) until then.

If you draft Brooks, you'll have to spend a pick very shortly after on a QB2 who has a good playoff schedule.

I could be wrong here, but I don't think any of us saying Brooks offers value are suggesting that we'll use him as our QB1. See my previous post--he is currently being drafted as QB17.While I think he's being underrated, I'm not expecting him to be a top 5 QB. It is possible, if Moss reverts to form and Brooks plays all 16 games. In fact, in that scenario, I'd say Brooks is likely to be top 5. But I'm not predicting top 5, and that isn't required for him to be a good value play.

Exactly. We are talking about a guy who you will likely draft as your QB2 in round 9 or 10. This is a guy with almost unlimited potential if he can retain the job for the who season and Moss stays healthy. If those 2 things happen, then I see very little chance that Brooks is not top 5 in FF production. You can draft Walter as viable insurance, but the overriding point is that Brooks will more than oten already be QB #2 for your team.

 

[bigness4life]

Too much new.

New HC, new OC, new QB.

It will take a year.

 

[Blackjacks]

I wouldn't consider someone who will be benched this season as my QB1.

And Walter isn't going to be starting on my fantasy squad at any point this season, so the idea of drafting him as "insurance" is laughable.

He's being drafted right where he should be. He has a decent amount of risk, very likely won't be starting during the playoffs when you'll need him most, and will probably produce pretty well (minus turnovers) until then.

If you draft Brooks, you'll have to spend a pick very shortly after on a QB2 who has a good playoff schedule.

Do you ever wonder why no one ever says to you???????

 

[joffer]

Thank you. Glad someone else sees this. The only reasons IMO to not consider Brooks a solid QB1 are (1) you play in 6 team leagues or (2) you are predicting that he will get benched.

 

[BigRed]

People are calling Brooks a marginal QB1?

Year        Value        Pos. Rank    Overall Rank--------------------------------------------------2000           0            29            3362001          59             6             212002          44             6             362003          26             5             442004          32             8             462005           0            16            130--------------------------------------------------With the exception of his rookie year and last year, he is much more than that. There is a lot of perception not being backed up by facts in this thread.

In our 10-team league those rankings above mean the best he has EVER done was a middle-of-the-pack starting QB (only slightly better in a 12-team one). That's pretty much in the marginal area.

PS and oh btw most people play H2H and in such games just looking at final rankings/stats is misleading. Game to game he is erratic as hell and just as likely to lead you to a loss as help you win. I don't know about your league(s),but that won't cut it in ours most times.

 

[MLBrandow]

Thank you. Glad someone else sees this. The only reasons IMO to not consider Brooks a solid QB1 are (1) you play in 6 team leagues or (2) you are predicting that he will get benched.

Well, if you don't feel that he will get benched, he's a great value.But if he does, you'll be in a pretty bad spot come playoff time.

Most people here play FF to win their leagues, not to make the playoffs.

Every decision you make in drafting your fantasy team should help answer the question "how does this help me win my championship?"

Assuming everyone is right here... do you draft a top-6QB at QB16 who you can't use for the playoffs? Surely he'll be the first QB you take, as you wouldn't likely take a backup QB before him. And surely you won't spend back-to-back picks on QBs.

So that leaves you with a backup somewhere around QB23 or worse. In other words, you'll go from having one of the best QBs in the league to having one of the worst in the playoffs.

Could this happen? It might not, but at best it's a coin-flip, because Davis loves Walter, and we all know OAK won't be playing for the playoffs in December.

Do you take the value with the risk? I don't know, but I'd consider them to cancel out, leaving him about where he's being taken.

Game to game he is erratic as hell and just as likely to lead you to a loss as help you win. I don't know about your league(s),but that won't cut it in ours most times.

This is probably the most important point. His high-lows are amazingly bad. I'm guessing most of the Brooks supporters in here would be first-time owners. If you graph out his per-game production over the past few years, what you end up with is a scatter-plot rather than a progression or some tangible reliability.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

People are calling Brooks a marginal QB1?

Year        Value        Pos. Rank    Overall Rank--------------------------------------------------2000           0            29            3362001          59             6             212002          44             6             362003          26             5             442004          32             8             462005           0            16            130--------------------------------------------------With the exception of his rookie year and last year, he is much more than that.  There is a lot of perception not being backed up by facts in this thread.

In our 10-team league those rankings above mean the best he has EVER done was a middle-of-the-pack starting QB (only slightly better in a 12-team one). That's pretty much in the marginal area.

PS and oh btw most people play H2H and in such games just looking at final rankings/stats is misleading. Game to game he is erratic as hell and just as likely to lead you to a loss as help you win. I don't know about your league(s),but that won't cut it in ours most times.

I really want to insert M. Vick here.Brooks is erractic but he throws to many TD's to lead you to more loses than wins. If he falls into the round 8 area I think he is a great pick and I can even justify someone taking him earlier.

 

[John Mamula]

People are calling Brooks a marginal QB1?

Year        Value        Pos. Rank    Overall Rank--------------------------------------------------2000           0            29            3362001          59             6             212002          44             6             362003          26             5             442004          32             8             462005           0            16            130--------------------------------------------------With the exception of his rookie year and last year, he is much more than that.  There is a lot of perception not being backed up by facts in this thread.

In our 10-team league those rankings above mean the best he has EVER done was a middle-of-the-pack starting QB (only slightly better in a 12-team one). That's pretty much in the marginal area.

PS and oh btw most people play H2H and in such games just looking at final rankings/stats is misleading. Game to game he is erratic as hell and just as likely to lead you to a loss as help you win. I don't know about your league(s),but that won't cut it in ours most times.

First, as you either intentionally leave out (or fail to realize) that Brooks can be had much later than the #5 QB in the draft. This is where you capitalize on value. Regardless if he is the middle of the pack starter in a 10 team league, the fact that you can get him later and get other positions earlier while still getting a top 5-7 QB is where the value lies.Regarding him being "erratic as hell", I would imagine he is no more erratic than most QBs. It's just one of those things that the sharks parrots here talk about because they here everyone else say it.

 

[John Mamula]

This is probably the most important point. His high-lows are amazingly bad. I'm guessing most of the Brooks supporters in here would be first-time owners. If you graph out his per-game production over the past few years, what you end up with is a scatter-plot rather than a progression or some tangible reliability.

Why don't you do this and compare it to the other top 15-20 QBs and tell me how it turns out.I think I already know...

 

[Assani Fisher]

Kerry Collins was my #2 QB last year, and for the first 4 games before Moss got hurt, I was right.

I totally agree with you about Brooks this year as long as Moss and Brooks stay healthy and in the starting lineup.

 

[Assani Fisher]

# 1 = crazy

top ten (fantasy) = possible if things go well

top ten seems like a given. Go look at his finishes in recent years throwing out last year since the tragedy totally changed that entire team. #10 would seem like the absolute downside to me.

 

[joffer]

Kerry Collins was my #2 QB last year, and for the first 4 games before Moss got hurt, I was right.

linki guess we're talking about a different scoring system?

 

[Assani Fisher]

Is everyone forgetting that with Randy Moss, worse QBs than Brooks have been made to look amazing? That't no fluke.

Like, uh, Kerry Collins? (#9 QB in 2005, over 4 ppg behind #1).

When Moss was healthy(which admitedly was a small sample size of only the first 4 games last year), KC was the #3 best FF QB.And nearly every other QB Moss has played with when healthy has performed as a top 3 QB. I went through this entire argument last offseason when telling people how much Daunte Culpepper would suck without Moss.

 

[MLBrandow]

This is probably the most important point.  His high-lows are amazingly bad.  I'm guessing most of the Brooks supporters in here would be first-time owners.  If you graph out his per-game production over the past few years, what you end up with is a scatter-plot rather than a progression or some tangible reliability.

Why don't you do this and compare it to the other top 15-20 QBs and tell me how it turns out.I think I already know...

You fail to realize the point.A QB who produces like a #1QB one week and the next week, without any changes at all, produces like a #26QB is not someone you want on your fantasy team.

Unpredictability is a very undesirable trait in fantasy football. Maybe you like to load your roster up with guys like that, but I don't.

Before last year, Shaun Alexander was exactly the same. He'd score 5 TDs in a game, then go 3 games without a TD.

Would you rather have the guy who puts up a consistent 16PPG, or one who averages 17PPG, but half the time he puts up 30 and the other half he gets you 5?

I'd say the latter, IF I could predict it. Problem is Brooks just goes hot and cold for seemingly no explainable reason.

If you're anticipating Brooks as a top-5 or top-7 fantasy QB, which he may well be, why would you draft him as your QB2?

Are you really going to bench Bulger or Hasselbeck for Brooks? No... So you'll get what, one game out of him?

There's value if you want to load up on your RB/WR/TE positions in the first 7 or 8 rounds, but not if you want him as your QB2.

I think there's real value in doing this if you can land an underrated late QB like Favre/Brunell/Carr.

Otherwise, he has a very limited usage due to his wild inconsistency.