Banger
Footballguy
ok, I agree then...
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Aaron Rodgers (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter frank_da_tank
- Start date
Streetduck
Footballguy
Well I traded Losman for Farve and Rogers before last season. This is a little hit but would still rather have Rogers than Losman. I liked the zip he had on the ball in the Dallas game. I'll be rootin' for a healthy Rogers this year.
trader jake
Footballguy
You know you're a sick Packers fan when you already own a Rodgers jersey.
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
The only certainty regarding A-rod is that his name will forever be misspelled on football message boards, by friend and foe alike.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
Yup, instead of seeing Farve for years, it'll be Rogers instead.
frank_da_tank
Footballguy
may try to buy low for jennings.duece2626 said:
don't think we'll see many selling him low. From everything i've heard Rodgers has very good chemistry with him in practices and seemed to use him quite a bit in the Dallas game.Favre had a tendency to lock onto Driver, so i think Jennings will have a 15-20% increase in targets with Rodgers under center.
Todem
Footballguy
I thought against Dallas he looked composed and relaxed. But here is the thing. Dallas prepared for Farve. So Rodgers took them by suprise which is what backups can do sometimes if they have any sort of skills.
There is really no book (as we refer to in baseball for pitchers and hitters) on him. Time will tell but I think he has the goods to be a productive QB and maybe more. They would not have sat on him and developed him these past 3 years if he was garbage.
There is really no book (as we refer to in baseball for pitchers and hitters) on him. Time will tell but I think he has the goods to be a productive QB and maybe more. They would not have sat on him and developed him these past 3 years if he was garbage.
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Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
Take it for what its worth, but Rodgers really had a connection two years ago in the preseason with Greg Jennings. Same could be said with this season with James Jones. I do think Rodgers ceiling is quite high. There's just been so many QBs that stepped right in at his age and experience that were fantastic QBs. Kurt WarnerTony RomoDerek AndersonMarc BulgerMatt HasselbeckTrent GreenJake DelhommeAll of these guys were backups early in their careers. Almost all of them have a top 5 fantasy finish to their credit. The pieces are in place for Rodgers to be very successful. Most here seem to be limiting his upside to the 8-12 range. I think its considerably higher than that. Having said all that, I see his downside being quite large too. The injury concern is legitimite. No one has game planned for him yet. I would draft him in redraft as a backup, but given his situation and grooming, he could easily outplay your #1.
Phase of the Game
Footballguy
Like the tools that still can't spell Favre correctly.
Phase of the Game
Footballguy
That would be Favre and Rodgers.Streetduck said:
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David Yudkin
Footballguy
Replacements of HOF QBs (that retired as starters and did not move to other teams as backups) have met with lukewarm results. They may have had one or two good seasons, but none of these guys came close to their predecessors career wise . .
Jay Fiedler (Dan Marino)
Brian Griese (John Elway)
Tommy Kramer (Fran Tarkenton)
Mark Malone (Dan Fouts)
Steve Bono (Joe Montana)
Todd Collins (Jim Kelly)
Jeff Garcia (Steve Young)
Quincy Carter (Troy Aikman)
Cliff Stoudt (Terry Bradshaw)
David Woodley (Bob Griese)
Scott Hunter (Bart Starr)
Danny White (Roger Staubach)
Jay Fiedler (Dan Marino)
Brian Griese (John Elway)
Tommy Kramer (Fran Tarkenton)
Mark Malone (Dan Fouts)
Steve Bono (Joe Montana)
Todd Collins (Jim Kelly)
Jeff Garcia (Steve Young)
Quincy Carter (Troy Aikman)
Cliff Stoudt (Terry Bradshaw)
David Woodley (Bob Griese)
Scott Hunter (Bart Starr)
Danny White (Roger Staubach)
Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
I thought that was a Lynn Dickey jerseytrader jake said:You know you're a sick Packers fan when you already own a Rodgers jersey.set57hike said:
Illegal Pants Downfield
Footballguy
I don't know that it makes a difference, but I'd be interested to see the draft pedigree of these guys, and the situations they moved into. That is, how many of those replacements were with the teams for a couple years as a backup? How many were free agent pickups, rookies, etc.? Again, I don't know that it is enough to buck the trend, but I'd have to think Rodgers is in a pretty favorable situation to most of those others - 1st round pick, has been learning the system as a backup for a few years, and is stepping in to a team that was in the NFC Championship game last year.Griese is the only one that stands out to me as a similar situation (I think he was a rookie or maybe a 2nd year guy, taking over a Super Bowl team?), though I'm not familiar with several of the replacements Yudkin listed...
Couch Potato
Footballguy
Not sure what your point is. If it's that a HOFer isn't likely to be followed by another HOFer, that's not exactly a surprise or a revelation. You picked 12 QBs. Choose any random set of 12 starting QBs in the history of the NFL and you aren't likely to find a HOFer in that group, or in the group of QBs following them either. But even in your sample, 25% (Garcia, Kramer, and Danny White) had nice careers. That's not bad is it? Most of the others who followed the HOFers, based on their draft slot or the point in their careers when they took over, wouldn't be expected to shine.To me, the sample above has no relevance to Aaron Rodgers at all. It looks more like a conclusion already drawn about Rodgers, that he will fail, then a sample found that would support it. I don't think that conclusion is at all accurate.
Rodgers was a 1st round pick, unlike any of the replacements listed above other than Kramer (who did fine for a career) and Malone (who came anew to the HOFer's team after an undistinguished career already). Rodgers has 3 years of learning in this system under his belt, and is in a solid young offense. The closest player that comes to my mind was Steve Young, who also was a 1st round pick, sat behind Montana a few years, and eventually became a HOFer himself after taking over. I have to wonder why you qualified your sample to exclude HOFers moved on to another team (like Montana) rather than retired. What difference does that make in how the successor would do? Was this condition included purposefully to exclude Montana and Young because you knew it would keep Young out of the conversation?
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Banger
Footballguy
How many of those were 1st round draft picks who waited in the wings for a few years and whose team went the NFC championship the prior year, lost no significant FA's and had $30 mill in room under the cap? I'm not saying that he's guaranteed to succeed by any stretch but he's stepping into one of the better situations in the NFL.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Whether there were 10 future HOFers or no HOFers in this group would have no bearing on Rodgers, and we all know that. The point was that it's tough to fill someone else's shoes.Similarly, I think it would be interesting to see how well the teams fared after their HOF QB retired. The criteria I used to get on the list was simply starting HOF QBs that retired. I'm sure there are several other instances where a future HOF QB left to go to another team . . . but they didn't retire.
I also don't think that this list would be any better or worse than looking at other positions where a HOFer retired. So the point again was "it's tough to fill someone else's shoes."
Couch Potato
Footballguy
It's a point that's probably assumed by most when the list is HOFers, but OK that's fine. I suspect that the group of successors above are probably about the norm if you sampled any group of QBs, whether they followed a HOFer or not. So that's really my point. What Rodgers does for his career will depend on Rodgers, not whether he followed Favre or someone else.P.S.: I gotta go to bat for my boy Rodgers here. He graduated from my high school and graduated with my son.
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sho nuff
Footballguy
Well yes...though...Rodgers ran the short passing game that GB had been running all year (Favre was actuall shying away from that usual game plan earlyin that game)
sho nuff
Footballguy
How many of them played for the Green Bay Packers in 2008? With their cast...cap space to sign other players...and how many of them sat for 3 years learning the system?
sho nuff
Footballguy
My brother has one. Always gets the best reactions and a few high fives at games.I thought that was a Lynn Dickey jerseytrader jake said:You know you're a sick Packers fan when you already own a Rodgers jersey.set57hike said:
trader jake
Footballguy
I agree with your statement CP but I must also acknowledge the 500 pound gorilla in the room: the shadow of Brett Favre. Rodgers will succeed or fail based on his own ability but the burden of expectations can be brutal on any starting quarterback, let alone one that is replacing an all-time great.I'm not as concerned about Rodger's physical ability as I am about his ability to cope with all that comes with "replacing" #4. An obvious example: anytime he gets injured people will immediately doubt his heart. The situation that most closely mirrors what Aaron Rodgers is facing is Brian Griese. He had the ability to be a solid NFL QB, performed reasonably well, and yet was still ran out of town.
EBF
Footballguy
Based on what I saw of him in college, Rodgers has a little bit of the "it" factor. He's capable of getting "in the zone" and taking over games. I thought after his sophomore year he would eventually become a very good NFL QB, but he regressed a bit in his final college season. He was still my QB1 in his draft class and I'm curious to see what he can do with this opportunity.
JKL
Footballguy
I'll put him at about #15 in a re-draft right now, just based on the team situation, his draft status, his age, and the other situations around the league. I could make an argument to move him up or down about 5 slots.
Based on my research on quarterbacks, I would say that if he is a legitimate NFL starter capable of having top 12 seasons, its going to happen right away. He has quite a range of upside/downside. His upside is numbers every bit as good as a 38 year old Favre last year, where he has a quality WR corps, good offensive line, and those WR's got a lot of YAC. His downside is that, like about half the first rounders drafted over the last 30 years, he won't be able to cut it or ever rise above "Joey Harrington".
Based on my research on quarterbacks, I would say that if he is a legitimate NFL starter capable of having top 12 seasons, its going to happen right away. He has quite a range of upside/downside. His upside is numbers every bit as good as a 38 year old Favre last year, where he has a quality WR corps, good offensive line, and those WR's got a lot of YAC. His downside is that, like about half the first rounders drafted over the last 30 years, he won't be able to cut it or ever rise above "Joey Harrington".
acefootball
Footballguy
Trent Green......culpepper to GB
Chicago Hooligan
Footballguy
Out of all the so-so options for a back-up I'd like to see Losman acquired.
Rodgers' FF value, I won't try to predict. At least he's in a good situation.
On the "real football" tip: even if he's not great, the fans won't hang him out to dry. Of course we'd be delighted if he turns out to be a guy who can start for 7 or 8 years, but Favre's reign has imparted patience. It's not like the Bears or other teams where they've fielded busts and garbage at the position consistently. If Rodgers posts 2 losing seasons that shine will be off him fast, but who knows what could happen in that time - maybe they rework themselves as a running team. Anything can happen. I'm excited to see how it plays out.
Rodgers' FF value, I won't try to predict. At least he's in a good situation.
On the "real football" tip: even if he's not great, the fans won't hang him out to dry. Of course we'd be delighted if he turns out to be a guy who can start for 7 or 8 years, but Favre's reign has imparted patience. It's not like the Bears or other teams where they've fielded busts and garbage at the position consistently. If Rodgers posts 2 losing seasons that shine will be off him fast, but who knows what could happen in that time - maybe they rework themselves as a running team. Anything can happen. I'm excited to see how it plays out.
