mlball77
Footballguy
I don’t know how most people view this, but I think some care needs to be taken when acquiring future first round picks. I’ve often had thoughts on this topic such as, “This is a mediocre team, so their first in 2013 should be around #5-#8 overall.” Or, “this team is clearly a playoff team, so their pick should be around #9-#12.” --Assuming this is a 12-team league.
While using a range for my expectations of where a given pick should end up provides me with some wiggle room, I now believe that said ranges are still largely inappropriate in many cases. Things can change very fast in dynasty. A breakout player or two (maybe like Arian Foster a couple of years ago) can elevate a team a tier above general expectations, in my experience. Similarly, a couple of wicked injuries and a top tier team can fall a peg or two. –It happens quite often in FF.
Further, a mediocre team can slip into the playoffs and have a couple/few big weeks and win the league. This isn’t all that uncommon. While the consensus might have been for this unexpected champ to finish around 6 or 7 overall, they actually ended up #1 despite a so-so regular season record. And if you previously acquired their pick, you landed the 1.12 pick in a twelve-team league, and not the 1.05 to 1.08 like you had anticipated.
It’s probably not necessary to even say, but the type of scenario I just detailed can greatly impact the results of your trades and the strength of your team going forward.
I’m starting to look at future first round pick acquisitions like this:
[*]Identify the clear top 2-3 teams in the league and consider their pick as likely to be 1.08-1.12 for the following year (in a 12-team league).
[*]Identify the clear bottom 2-3 teams and consider their picks as likely to be 1.01-1.05.
[*]Take the other 6-8 teams and try not to make too much of an assumption about where their 1st rd pick next year may end up. These middle ground teams are too tough to project. --Don’t acquire one of these picks at the price you’d typically pay for a mid first rd pick. If they can be acquired at a price commensurate with a late first, then it makes sense. If not, you have too much risk of overpayment.
Right now, I currently own a couple of first rd picks that fall into the middle ground group. I’d like to think they’ll end up being around 1.06 or 1.07 for me in 2013, but really, they could end up anywhere very easily. I don’t really know what I have with them.
What do you guys think on this topic?
While using a range for my expectations of where a given pick should end up provides me with some wiggle room, I now believe that said ranges are still largely inappropriate in many cases. Things can change very fast in dynasty. A breakout player or two (maybe like Arian Foster a couple of years ago) can elevate a team a tier above general expectations, in my experience. Similarly, a couple of wicked injuries and a top tier team can fall a peg or two. –It happens quite often in FF.
Further, a mediocre team can slip into the playoffs and have a couple/few big weeks and win the league. This isn’t all that uncommon. While the consensus might have been for this unexpected champ to finish around 6 or 7 overall, they actually ended up #1 despite a so-so regular season record. And if you previously acquired their pick, you landed the 1.12 pick in a twelve-team league, and not the 1.05 to 1.08 like you had anticipated.
It’s probably not necessary to even say, but the type of scenario I just detailed can greatly impact the results of your trades and the strength of your team going forward.
I’m starting to look at future first round pick acquisitions like this:
[*]Identify the clear top 2-3 teams in the league and consider their pick as likely to be 1.08-1.12 for the following year (in a 12-team league).
[*]Identify the clear bottom 2-3 teams and consider their picks as likely to be 1.01-1.05.
[*]Take the other 6-8 teams and try not to make too much of an assumption about where their 1st rd pick next year may end up. These middle ground teams are too tough to project. --Don’t acquire one of these picks at the price you’d typically pay for a mid first rd pick. If they can be acquired at a price commensurate with a late first, then it makes sense. If not, you have too much risk of overpayment.
Right now, I currently own a couple of first rd picks that fall into the middle ground group. I’d like to think they’ll end up being around 1.06 or 1.07 for me in 2013, but really, they could end up anywhere very easily. I don’t really know what I have with them.
What do you guys think on this topic?
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