ADP averaged from 3 sites (MFL/Xpert/ESPN) (1 Viewer)

[buckeye35]

Some of you probably remember this thread.

Thanks to Tbone's inspiration and davearm's initiative to volunteer to take over the project and update all of the data, we have a new set of Average Draft Position cumulative rankings. These were updated on Thursday, Sept. 2. The cumulative numbers are averaged from MFL, Xpert Leagues and ESPN. Antsports' numbers were not included in the cumulative averages because there were only 5 or 6 recent drafts used to get their ADP numbers.

If you'd like to check out Antsports numbers or see if there are any other major changes on the other sites, here are the links:

MFL (myfantastyleague.com)

Xpert Leagues

ESPN (You may have to be a ESPN "Insider" to view this one).

Antsports

Now for the cumulative list:

Average Draft Positions 2004 (Web format -- through 9/7)

Average Draft Positions 2004 (downloadable Excel format -- through 9/7)

*** EDIT -- I updated the lists above and below. ***

I found this to be an invaluable resource at my drafts last year. It's pretty dead on when deciding how long you can wait to get certain players you're targeting. If nothing else, it will give you a solid range of when a player is going to be drafted so you can map out your picks, know who you can hold off on, know what positions you can stack up on at different points in the draft, etc.

This is great stuff for those of you with drafts over the next week. We may even get an update on Tuesday.

Again, a HUGE thanks to davearm for putting this together at a moment's notice and to Tbone for coming up with the idea in the first place, giving his blessing to let someone else take it over and then coming through to put the new list in web format so that everyone here can share in the info.

And, I'd like to reiterate that I really think this should be a regular feature under the FBG subscriber content. It seems like a no-brainer.

Enjoy!

 

[UpFromTheAshes]

Great work, thanks!

 

[ComfortablyNumb]

Excellent work!Thanks

 

[LordHusker]

This ADP tool is SOOOOOOO much more useful than the Antsports stuff. Extremely nice work. And yes, I agree, it should be subscriber content.

 

[bocksheesh]

Good stuff.

 

[Native]

Ive been looking for this, thanks! Question for you - I know the info is updated through Sep 2, but when is the start date? For example, I see that ESPN has Westbrook going 4.4 on Average, and it could be due to the fact that much of the data here is pre-Buckhalters injury.Then again, maybe the ESPN drafters are just a bunch of idiots

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Quality work.

 

[Philo Beddoe]

awesome!

 

[RunBuck]

You are correct that this should be standard FBG content. This was a key lever I used in my draft this year in that it enabled me to not reach for players I valued until when the common draft perspective of value was reached. For example, I was high on Denver's DT (had them 4th overall on my board) but I knew that average draft tools had them around 8th to 12th. Therefore, they started showing up on my VBD around the 6th round but I waited till the 9th after 9 other DT teams had been chosen and took them. Worse case I got fair value ... best case I got a steal.

 

[-dc-]

Great Stuff -- this is exactly what I have been looking for.Just out of curiousity though -- did noone in ESPn, MFL or XPertleagues draft Kevan Barlow in their mocks... i cant seem to find his name anywhere...

 

[-dc-]

Just out of curiousity though -- did noone in ESPn, MFL or XPertleagues draft Kevan Barlow in their mocks... i cant seem to find his name anywhere...

see it now -- he was hiding under peyton manning -- came up in the printed version.once again -- thanks for the great post!

 

[buckeye35]

Ive been looking for this, thanks!

Question for you - I know the info is updated through Sep 2, but when is the start date? For example, I see that ESPN has Westbrook going 4.4 on Average, and it could be due to the fact that much of the data here is pre-Buckhalters injury.

Then again, maybe the ESPN drafters are just a bunch of idiots

Tbone used ESPN last year, but they are a pay site now. But we were down to just two (MFL & Xpert) because of Antsports not offering too many recent drafts in their averages. My brother pays for the "Insider" content, so I got his password and checked it out. It looked decent, but it didn't allow you to sort by date or anything like that. I figured it would be good to have as many as possible to average into the thing. Xpert seems to be the most realistic with how my league rolls, but it's nice to have the guppy perspective averaged in to get an idea of the potential range a guy might fall into.ESPN does have Westbrook pretty low (40th player off the board), but then you'll see that Xpert has him going #22 and MFL has him lasting until #32. You get a cumulative average of about #31, which ranks him as the #27 player taken on the overall list. I think that's pretty fair.

If you're in a 14-team redraft picking, for example, at #5, you're going to have the #24 pick in the 2nd round and the #33 in the 3rd. After you take Portis (according to the average ADP) in the 1st you can look at this list and know that at #24, Westbrook ought to be there if you really like him. However, you'll notice that Chad Johnson (who I have a little higher than others ), is #21 on the oeverall list, but has a cumulative average of about #25. You might feel like you can grab Johnson with pick #24 and still have a shot at Westbrook in the 3rd round with pick #33. It depends on how bad you want him, how well you know the guys in your league, etc. #33 is slightly out of the range, thus there's a good chance he'll be gone if you wait. But, Thomas Jones (#37) and/or Chris Brown (#38) should defintely be there at #33. So if you follow this as a guideline, you've mapped out Portis and Chad Johnson and then maybe you get lucky and Westbrook is still there, but if not you should definitely be able to grab T. Jones or C. Brown.

I just find it very useful in mapping these types of scenarios out beforehand, that's all.

***If anyone is a KFFL subscriber, I think their overall top 200 ADP would be a nice addition here, to help further clear up the potential ranges of every player. I get their top 100 e-mailed to me on occasion, but I don't have a recent list.***

 

[Steelerfan]

Thanks for this info, I have used this in the past and it is very helpful. I certainly agree that this should be part of Footballguys regular package of info.

 

[Man in the yellow hat]

Great info. I draft this weekend and have been disappointed with antsports info up to this point.

 

[jcjets]

Very nicely done. Thanks

 

[Ahmad Rashad]

If you're in a 14-team redraft picking, for example, at #5, you're going to have the #24 pick in the 2nd round and the #33 in the 3rd. After you take Portis (according to the average ADP) in the 1st you can look at this list and know that at #24, Westbrook ought to be there if you really like him. However, you'll notice that Chad Johnson (who I have a little higher than others ), is #21 on the oeverall list, but has a cumulative average of about #25. You might feel like you can grab Johnson with pick #24 and still have a shot at Westbrook in the 3rd round with pick #33. It depends on how bad you want him, how well you know the guys in your league, etc. #33 is slightly out of the range, thus there's a good chance he'll be gone if you wait. But, Thomas Jones (#37) and/or Chris Brown (#38) should defintely be there at #33. So if you follow this as a guideline, you've mapped out Portis and Chad Johnson and then maybe you get lucky and Westbrook is still there, but if not you should definitely be able to grab T. Jones or C. Brown.

I think it's dangerous to use average draft data that is even a couple of weeks old on guys that are moving up the draft boards like Chris brown, Westbrook, and Thomas Jones. All three of these guys have been going in the second round recently after their preseason performance and Buckhalter's injury. You can't count on any of them being there at #33.This guy wants Brown at #14:http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=100378 and there are several guys here who wanted him just after that:http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...ic=100013&st=35I use ADP as a guideline, but if any of the data is more than a couple of days old, you have to adjust appropriately for the guys that are moving up if you really want them.This is great stuff, but don't take it as gospel...

 

[buckeye35]

There's always someone! Like I said, it gives you an idea of the possible range of picks a player may be drafted in. It's not the end-all, be-all.

BUMP for the afternoon crowd...

 

[tietzjd]

Good work. I like what I see I will have incorpoate in to my draft stratagy. Yes it's not the end all but. You might see one or two guys that way down there. That you can wait one more round to pick up. If someone takes Brown at #14 let them. There mistake. Brown is not even a top 10 back let alone a top 15 player.

 

[Ahmad Rashad]

There's always someone! Like I said, it gives you an idea of the possible range of picks a player may be drafted in. It's not the end-all, be-all.

I completely agree, as I stated this is great stuff -- it was the statement that "you should definitely be able to grab T. Jones or C. Brown" at pick #33 that I was disagreeing with. Neither was available at #33 in my draft last night, which even requires 2 QB's, causing 7 QB's to be picked by pick 33. That statement contradicts the statement that it gives you an idea of the possible range of picks a player may be drafted in..."There's always someone!" <-- Now that was uncalled for...

 

[KINGDOMCANE]

Definitely a helpful resource.What I do is modify the ADP into an APR (average position ranking). Essentially, instead of relying upon average draft position, I create consensus rankings within positions that averages rankings from Antsports, Xpertleagues, and MFL. I'll go about 30 deep at QB, 60 deep at RB and WR and about 30 deep at TE.I then go back to the drafttrackers of my respective leagues and plug in this year's corresponding players.To clarify, if the third round of one of my drafts last year went like this,(25)WR5(26)RB18(27)QB4(28)WR6(29)QB5(30)RB19(31)RB20(32)WR7(33)WR8(34)WR9(35)QB6(36)RB21then I will insert those players with the corresponding APR for this year into the appropriate slots. So, using your average ADP, picks 25-36 would go something like this:(25)Chad Johnson(26)Michael Bennett(27)Donovan McNabb(28)Hines Ward(29)Matt Hasselbeck(30)Chris Brown(31)Curtis Martin(32)Derrick Mason(33)Santana Moss(34)Joe Horn(35)Steve McNair(36)Thomas JonesAgain, this is by no means exact, either. What it does do is incorporate drafting tendencies from your leagues insofar as that is possible. What I'll then do is, based on my particular draft slot in this year's drafts, get an idea of who'll be around / who I should target in each of the first eight or so rounds. Also, if you are in a 10 team league, for example, and you know most of the owners like to fill out their "starting lineup" first (everybody gets their top 2 RBs in the first 3 rounds and then move on to other positions before getting a 3rd RB), look to see what round people start to grab their 3rd RB and prepare accordingly. For example, let's say you really like Duce Staley as RB3 with upside as a RB2. Well, he is currently listed as the 23rd RB off the board (probably RB22 now w/ Bennett's injury), which means that in the hypothetical above, you could possibly grab him in the 6th round without having to overspend.Just some thoughts...hope that wasn't too convoluted.

 

[buckeye35]

"There's always someone!" <-- Now that was uncalled for...

Just kidding around, take it easy! Your points are well taken. I might not have made the best example I could have at that hour!Brown and Jones went as early as 32/33 in Xpert. Hopefully we'll notice a little change if we get an update on Tuesday, but that sounds about right to me. Maybe you assume they'll go a little bit quicker since Michael Bennett is currently ahead of them and people will likely let him slide quite a bit now.

 

[davearm]

Interesting idea KingdomCane.Assuming that the WR1, RB20, QB15, etc. all have about the same relative value from one year to the next, this sounds like a great way to tailor the "generic" ADP data into something specific to your particular league/opposing owners.It essentially says, "if all the owners drafted the exact same way again this year, this is how the draft would unfold." Nice thinking.

 

[KINGDOMCANE]

Thanks, Dave.While I love the average ADP as a reference resource, I found that it didn't translate that well when taking into account drafting tendencies from my different leagues. For example, one of my leagues goes RB heavy with some owners taking 3 or 4 RBs with their first 5 or 6 picks (incidentally, having participated in many survivor leagues over at Xpertleagues, that site, understandably in the survivor format, goes really heavy on the RBs -- as reflected by the ADP numbers -- and that can skew the average ADP chart). I have other leagues where owners fill their starting lineups first and then target "backup" RBs in the 5th, 6th, 7th, etc. In those leagues, I realized that I could get backs in the RB20-RB30 range that I like (Staley is an example this year) in the vicinity of those rounds and still address higher tier WRs and QBs in the process.Obviously, one of the nice things is that on each of the mock draft sites, you can sort the rankings by individual positions, rather than overall, which is what I do. I also try to limit the time frame of the draft pools to the last couple of weeks or so, and then incorporate any injuries, etc.I end up with a spreadsheet that lists players in order of APR, along with the ranges amongst the 3 mock sites you mentioned. My final column lists target round based upon my particular draft slot in each round. I then shade the names of those players I believe to represent good value / target guys and play around with hypothetical starts (i.e., RB-RB-WR; RB-WR-RB, etc.) to see which I like best.

 

[Mapmaker]

That's a lot of hard work I'm sure ..... much appreciated fella's!!!

 

[Guru]

Great work!

 

[buckeye35]

BUMP -- someone was askin'!

 

[Frank Black]

Nice work!

 

[Frank Black]

bump

 

[buckeye35]

HUGE props to tbone and davearm for the last minute updates here:

Web version as of 9/7

excel version as of 9/7

Enjoy! I'm off to my draft!

 

[robb]

So, is this going to be repeated for 2005?By tBone? by FBG? by davearm?

 

[Bri]

Gimme the links and I'll see what I can do in the morning. I think I can do this

 

[robb]

see if they are in the above responses. If not....??

 

[Bri]

those 2004 links are NG except for Antsports. I'm playing with that now. Anyone that knows ASP please PM me, got a simple question. Tried to search here but ASP is 3 letter word so....grrr. Now, quite confident I can do this need to work out a few wrinkles is allEdit:I'll just start a thread in the FFA, nothing works searching still struggling

 

[robb]

Any one have any ideas on this for 2005?I look forward to see what Bri comes up with!

 

[austinke]

mfl's HTML-formatted ADP info is here for 2005.

that said, I'm guessing you'd be better off with the XML-based data, available here - full details about the XML data available from mfl, including the player ID feed, is available here.

 

[Bri]

Any one have any ideas on this for 2005?

I look forward to see what Bri comes up with!

I kinda broke a rule here Robb. Ya don't go to someone else's site saying you could offer their visitors your website.(that isn't what I did but yet it kinda is, bear with me, nothing I wrote there seemed correct)

How 'bout this:

I'll gladly help some FBG designer get this going if that's what they want

Keep in mind this would take up a ton of bandwidth, they have a full plate and to add a last minute project to it is just madness. Also, antsports, espn, and MFL would all have to grant permission for someone to do this. It appears easy but really is a lot of work.

I openned up pandoras box here. I'd appreciate it if you'd forget this idea and just let this thread fade away.

A few solutions I can suggest to you on a personal level:

Ask ESPN+Antsports(via email)to also put there's in an xml feed.

XML often works like RSS in that most free RSS newsreaders can read them and you can access that on your computer.

There's a lot of XML to CSV file converters out there.(just google em) CSV(comma separated values) files can be openned with just about any spreadsheet program. So you could integrate that into some cheatsheet you're working on as well.

hopefully you understand

 

[rolliehouliranson]

I do the averaging myself for these three ADPs, but I have a problem. Antsports does not list their players average draft pick as 1 or 2 or 35. It lists them as 1.04 or 2.09 for round and pick. Is there a way to use an Excel formula to go from that to the pick numbber it represents. For example to go from 2.09 (for 12 team league) to 21?

 

[rolliehouliranson]

Nevermind. I figured out how to do it.Are there only three ADP sites?

 

[NYG Endzone]

Why use "average" rankings? Isn't FBG "experts" better than average anyway?

 

[rolliehouliranson]

Why use "average" rankings? Isn't FBG "experts" better than average anyway?

No.

 

[DreadedParms]

Why use "average" rankings? Isn't FBG "experts" better than average anyway?

You need to know who's going early (or too early) and who is going late (or too late). If I know that Jeremy Shockey is going in the sixth round in most drafts and he is worth a fourth round pick - you pick him in the fifth rather than the fourth.

 

[NYG Endzone]

ADP yeah. Its always tricky because most leagues have runs on positions and make ADP useless. Also other times you think you can wait on a player you really like and end up missing him.

 

[boss hogg]

I put this together for myself the last couple of years. Not much of a stretch to post it to the web. Just my first hack at it this year. I never really used any other sources other than MFL, Xperts and Antsports cause they are the most easily available. If anyone finds it useful or interesting, I can update the page whenever I recompile the numbers...(every couple of weeks or so)

Average ADP

 

[rolliehouliranson]

I put this together for myself the last couple of years. Not much of a stretch to post it to the web. Just my first hack at it this year. I never really used any other sources other than MFL, Xperts and Antsports cause they are the most easily available. If anyone finds it useful or interesting, I can update the page whenever I recompile the numbers...(every couple of weeks or so)

Average ADP

That is exactly what I do! I'm glad you're not in my league. If you could update it every so often that would be great for me.

 

[mbuehner]

It has occurred to me that if I really wanted to game the Antsport ADP in an effort to fool the FF community and get a leg up in Shark Leagues, it wouldnt be too hard to do with a little time on your hands. Just get in a bunch of drafts all the time and draft the target too high. Its the FF equivalent of pumping up a stock price. Im not that clever so if i've thought of it, others have. Averaging as many ADPs as possible is a wonderful idea and should at least make the scam harder to execute.

 

[Wilbur Wood]

I put this together for myself the last couple of years. Not much of a stretch to post it to the web. Just my first hack at it this year. I never really used any other sources other than MFL, Xperts and Antsports cause they are the most easily available. If anyone finds it useful or interesting, I can update the page whenever I recompile the numbers...(every couple of weeks or so)

Average ADP

Great stuff. Would greatly appreciate an update down the road. Of the 3 sources which do you find to be most indicative of "experts" or "guppies" (recognize that most guppies do not do mock drafts).

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

I put this together for myself the last couple of years. Not much of a stretch to post it to the web. Just my first hack at it this year. I never really used any other sources other than MFL, Xperts and Antsports cause they are the most easily available. If anyone finds it useful or interesting, I can update the page whenever I recompile the numbers...(every couple of weeks or so)

Average ADP

Great stuff. Would greatly appreciate an update down the road. Of the 3 sources which do you find to be most indicative of "experts" or "guppies" (recognize that most guppies do not do mock drafts).

The problem with Xperts ADP is it includes all the funky survivors that are done. (blame me for all the ####### mft drafts if you want), also the rookie drafts, bye week drafts etc. It is still good because their are a ton of drafts, so those drafts don't dramatically change the ADP, but it has to have some impact. However unlike the ADP you get from Ants, you can rest assured most of the picks from Xperts were made by people and not the computer. With the amount of people who go CC at Ants the ADP is changed somewhat by that.No clue about MFL.

not really answering the question but just wanted to point out a few problems with the ants and xperts adp, that I have noticed.

 

[CowboyFan]

ADP yeah. Its always tricky because most leagues have runs on positions and make ADP useless. Also other times you think you can wait on a player you really like and end up missing him.

The trick is to not just pick a couple players whose value is greater than thier ADP, but to have a list. It only takes a couple of those 'value' picks to fall to you to turn an average draft into a great start to the season.

 

[mbuehner]

"The trick is to not just pick a couple players whose value is greater than thier ADP, but to have a list. It only takes a couple of those 'value' picks to fall to you to turn an average draft into a great start to the season. "Thats exactly the value of ADP on your cheatsheet. You can get an instant indicator of how far a guy has fallen without wasting time. Not only is it a good estimate of how long you can safely let a targetted played float, but it also lets you know at a glance that somebody you might not have been watching too close has become very valuable relative to their expected draft position.

 

[wannabee]

To me, ADP is best for: Mock drafts to see who will fall to a certain spot and to see consequences of drafting a certain position. For example, if in round two, and are looking at possibilites, you say to yourself, " if I tak a WR here, which RBs should be left?". I know this is very simplistic, but a good draft looks a couple of rounds ahead to see who will be available. It is all about finding value and being flexible.