CalBear
Footballguy
Yeah, he only finished as the #8 RB from weeks 14-17. What a chump, he only managed to score a TD in three of four weeks.
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Adrian Peterson, retired (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter TheFanatic
- Start date
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Some times I wish Peterson would not talk.
grateful zed
Footballguy
peterson as the 42nd adp pick on mfl.
he is list in top 6 overall on major sites.
what's going on people?
he is list in top 6 overall on major sites.
what's going on people?
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At least according to the MFL report I just ran, he's at #33 overall. But your point holds.
What I've found with MFL in years past is that any time before about the 4th of July, the majority of drafts from which MFL pulls its information are dynasty startups (in which it's entirely reasonable to see ADP going in the mid-rounds). Even when I filter on "redraft leagues only", about a third of the leagues explicitly have "dynasty" in their titles ... so, yeah, their filtering mechanism seems to be about as up to date as their UI.
FWIW, in the FBG SSLs (going on as we speak), he went at 1.08, 1.10, and 1.10 and the 3rd RB off the board in all cases ... much closer to the "consensus" of major sites than to MFL.
grateful zed
Footballguy
well that helps explain things.
is there another more reliable adp?
is there another more reliable adp?
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/overall.php isn't too bad, though it's pulling from relatively few sources as well this time of year.
Alternatively, if you filter the MFL ADP report on "MFL public league drafts only" it'll show you results from the MFL10s etc., which are all redraft format. AP shows up at an ADP of 13 on those, which seems closer to reality.
grateful zed
Footballguy
STEADYMOBBIN 22
Footballguy
The real question is....does he have 6,680 yards left in the tank?
Sabertooth
Footballguy
STEADYMOBBIN 22
Footballguy
Super Secret Leagues
Id tell you about them but you know, the first rule of SSLs and all.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
You've already said too much.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Adrian Peterson a curious omission from Pro Football Focus' top 101 list
Oops. Guess this was already posted.
Oops. Guess this was already posted.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Aiming to be ‘more involved,’ Adrian Peterson said he’s still working to round out his game
As Mike Zimmer said earlier this year, show me the baby.
As Mike Zimmer said earlier this year, show me the baby.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
It never ceases to amaze me how many folks consider PFF the bible on player rankings. Peterson isn't in their top 111 players in the NFL? Enough already, the emperor has no clothes! How do people take them seriously?
It's not like this stuff is all that uncommon from them either.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
That's interesting for Jerrick McKinnon. He's unrostered in my league. Maybe not for long with this information.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Oof. Adrian, of all people, should not be talking about "beating up on the young guys."
OU#1
Footballguy
Seems like he has fallen out of the 1st round. I guess that is fair. I still think he's a top 10 RB in any format. He might be a value pick if he keeps falling?
If anybody can do it at an older age, it's Peterson. He is a freak.
Borden
Footballguy
He was 30 last year and lead the league in rushing. How many other guys have a full season of being a top 5 RB that aren't either coming off an injury or currently facing suspension? APs value instead because of his ceiling, it's his floor.
CabinFever
Footballguy
I would not be surprised for AP to have a HUGE year. This could really go either way. Maybe more run calls, and more dump offs in the passing game. AP is the kind of back that does well against 8 in the box, as his game is as much power as it is cutting and speed (heck, what can't he do)
nittanylion
Footballguy
The guy is a Robot. He's been doing it against a stacked box for years. With a healthy and effective Bridgewater, the Vikings were still going to be a run-first Team, and I don't think Bridgewater's role was going to be anything more than being effective enough to keep defenses honest. Hill can do the same thing. Even though he's 31, AP's 'football age' is X-1 (suspension). Plus...Norv. 2012 Redux is obviously asking too much, but I think it's plausible that he makes a run at it.
CHOO-CHOO!!!
CHOO-CHOO!!!
Bull Dozier
Footballguy
Agree with this. Eight in the box might lead to less consistency, but more big plays.
AP has lead the league in rushing three times I believe. The QBs in each of those seasons:
2008 - Gus Frerotte (11) and Tarvaris Jackson (5)
2012 - Christian Ponder's 2nd season
2015 - Teddy Bridgewater's 2nd season
None of these were legit passing threats to open up the box for Peterson.
That said, the year he played with the best QB of his career (2009 with Favre) saw his career high in TDs. Short scoring chances will surely be down, but I don't see any reason for him not to have another huge yardage season once again (barring injury, etc).
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
I'm hoping for a 2013ish season, about 90 rushing yards a game and double digit TDs
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
He's got a shot to become the first 30 year old+ RB in NFL history to challenge 2,000 rushing yards in a single season this year IMHO.
He is Adrian Peterson and it sounds as though the Vikings are going to hitch the offense to him and let him run.
He is Adrian Peterson and it sounds as though the Vikings are going to hitch the offense to him and let him run.
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Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
I forgot to add 30+, see the edit. I was in the process of editing before you replied. Sorry dude, must have really confused you for you to feel the need to jump on my mistake like that. Hope the edit is acceptable for you.
You seem really hurt, and for that I apologize for jumping on your mistake.
Zero percent chance AP can hit 2,000 yards, and I'm of the belief that he's the greatest RB in NFL history (at least the greatest pure rusher). His line is below average, his QB situation went from mediocre to worse, and as you said he's 30+. I could see 1,600, but you need the stars to align in order to sniff 2K and he won't have that.
These two situations seem awfully similar, except that Zeke lost a better QB than Peterson. Not sure why Peterson would take a bigger dip, unless you had it this way before the Romo injury and are just putting things back?
bb7278
Footballguy
Correct, I'm also not saying that AP is suddenly RB20 just down 1-2 spots and maybe a cause for pause in the 1st round for some people.
I think that McKinnon moves up a round in priority if you draft AP, more volume/more risk.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Adrian Peterson has 2381 rushing attempts and 238 receptions thus far in his career. The bulk of this has occurred in 8 seasons. This is 325 touches per season.
He averages 21.8 touches/game in his career which is 349 for the entire season.
For rushing attempts the lowest was in 2011 when the Vikings were not only bad on offense, but also had a terrible defense as well (31st in points given up, 22nd in yardage 31st in completion percentage 68.2% allowed). They started a over the hill McNabb and then Christian Ponder. Peterson only played 12 games because of his ACL injury. He was on pace for 277 rushing attempts that year.
The next lowest was 2010 when Favre fell off and wasn't good anymore. Peterson played 15 games and was on pace for 302 rushing attempts.
If I discard the rookie season where Peterson time shared with Chester Taylor and the one game in 2014 he played in before being suspended, Peterson averages 20.2 rushing attempts per game. This would be 323 rushing attempts over 16 games. Peterson had 30 receptions last season although I could see that being as low as 20.
Peterson is pretty much a lock for 350 opportunities if he is healthy all season. The defense is good so they could lean on Peterson more as long as the run game is effective.
When teams stack the box against Peterson he does get stopped for minimal gains a lot. He calls this famine famine feast. He can still get big plays in this situation and the situation is not at all new to him.
If the running game is effective enough I could see Peterson possibly rushing the ball 350 times this year as he has a couple times before in his career.
Peterson was not as good last season as he has been in the past imo. There were more runs for minimal gains last season than I think there were before, and fewer explosive runs than I think before. Some of Peterson's big runs came at times when the Vikings were already ahead and they didn't need them to win. I do think age and the already high workload may have started to affect him. It is possible his efficiency declines again this season due to age. Last season caused Petersons career YPC to fall below 5 for the fist time.
I think the offensive line has been putting more emphasis on pass blocking than they have run blocking. With the intent to better support Bridgewater. In the past players like Phil Loadholt and John Sullivan known more for their run blocking ability than pass blocking (although Sullivan was pretty good there as well). I don't think this is a major deal as far as Peterson goes, just noting that the offensive lines run blocking isn't quite as much of a strength as I think it has been in the past.
The addition of Treadwell and TE Morgan could be improvements as far as run blocking goes however. It also seems that Rhett Ellison should be able to return and contribute. Ellison was perhaps the Vikings best blocker in pass protection last year. He is a good blocker for the run as well, he has made key blocks that have sprung Peterson for big gains in the past. So perhaps these additions balances out the loss of Loadholt somewhat.
He averages 21.8 touches/game in his career which is 349 for the entire season.
For rushing attempts the lowest was in 2011 when the Vikings were not only bad on offense, but also had a terrible defense as well (31st in points given up, 22nd in yardage 31st in completion percentage 68.2% allowed). They started a over the hill McNabb and then Christian Ponder. Peterson only played 12 games because of his ACL injury. He was on pace for 277 rushing attempts that year.
The next lowest was 2010 when Favre fell off and wasn't good anymore. Peterson played 15 games and was on pace for 302 rushing attempts.
If I discard the rookie season where Peterson time shared with Chester Taylor and the one game in 2014 he played in before being suspended, Peterson averages 20.2 rushing attempts per game. This would be 323 rushing attempts over 16 games. Peterson had 30 receptions last season although I could see that being as low as 20.
Peterson is pretty much a lock for 350 opportunities if he is healthy all season. The defense is good so they could lean on Peterson more as long as the run game is effective.
When teams stack the box against Peterson he does get stopped for minimal gains a lot. He calls this famine famine feast. He can still get big plays in this situation and the situation is not at all new to him.
If the running game is effective enough I could see Peterson possibly rushing the ball 350 times this year as he has a couple times before in his career.
Peterson was not as good last season as he has been in the past imo. There were more runs for minimal gains last season than I think there were before, and fewer explosive runs than I think before. Some of Peterson's big runs came at times when the Vikings were already ahead and they didn't need them to win. I do think age and the already high workload may have started to affect him. It is possible his efficiency declines again this season due to age. Last season caused Petersons career YPC to fall below 5 for the fist time.
I think the offensive line has been putting more emphasis on pass blocking than they have run blocking. With the intent to better support Bridgewater. In the past players like Phil Loadholt and John Sullivan known more for their run blocking ability than pass blocking (although Sullivan was pretty good there as well). I don't think this is a major deal as far as Peterson goes, just noting that the offensive lines run blocking isn't quite as much of a strength as I think it has been in the past.
The addition of Treadwell and TE Morgan could be improvements as far as run blocking goes however. It also seems that Rhett Ellison should be able to return and contribute. Ellison was perhaps the Vikings best blocker in pass protection last year. He is a good blocker for the run as well, he has made key blocks that have sprung Peterson for big gains in the past. So perhaps these additions balances out the loss of Loadholt somewhat.
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Mr Rodgers neighborhood
Footballguy
Zero percent?
As much as I dislike Peterson, he's not a human. He's been elite with a below average line plenty of times before, with quarterbacks that are the same level of talent as Hill. Age doesn't apply to this mutant, although I wish it did.
I agree he's not human, but I'll stand by the statement. Peterson averaged nearly 6ypc in his 2K season, but he's been a 4.5ish guy since. Is 5ypc out of the question? Not necessarily, but 6ypc is. He'd need to be fed 25 carries per game every game to sniff 2K, and that's simply not going to happen. Throw in the age, the line, and the QB and there's simply no chance.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
As a rational human being I try to not say that Peterson cannot do things.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
I think he's going to get a lot of carries this year
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
Peterson was getting knocked earlier in the preseason for not running well out of the shotgun which is where Teddy did well and people thought McKinnon would steal some touches as he does well out of the shotgun. With Hill back in I think Peterson gets to run more with Hill under center and this bodes well for his efficiency. I am not moving Peterson in my rankings and he is still top 3 to me.
I will believe that Peterson is too old to be effective when he can not walk onto the field. Superman wears Adrian Peterson underwear after all.
I will believe that Peterson is too old to be effective when he can not walk onto the field. Superman wears Adrian Peterson underwear after all.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I was going to mention something similar abbottjamesr. I do think they planned to use McKinnon more and after just watching the Vikings first series against SD. McKinnon had some very nice runs. Zach Line had a key block. Something I only saw a couple times from him last season. I have been disappointed with Lines blocking overall. It is possible he has improved.
Anyhow I was working from the assumption that the Vikings would throw the ball more frequently and as part of that be in the shotgun formation more frequently, similar to how they were in 2014 with Teddy. McKinnon would get more snaps from being a better receiving option and also being more effective running out of the shotgun formation than Peterson has been.
Now they will still likely use a lot of shotgun formation still, and McKinnon will get snaps, as will Asiata at times. However with Hill I can definitely see them leaning on Peterson more and so perhaps significantly fewer passing attempts, and as part of that less shotgun formations and more 3TE and big formations than they used last season.
Teddy only had 447 passing attempts last season. I was expecting that to increase to 500. With Hill I think it stays about the same.
The Vikings ran the ball 474 times last season. 44 of those were Bridgewater. Hill likely only runs half as much as that. There were 22 runs by WR and FB last season, I could see this possibly going up with influences from Sparano.
So 420 rushing attempts for the RB. Peterson should get 320 of those, McKinnon 70 Asiata 30 would be my guess if the attempts stay the same. When expecting more QB runs and more use of McKinnon I was only projecting 300 rushing attempts for Peterson before Bridgewater was injured. I think that goes up now to 320 and possibly 350 if Peterson is effective enough.
McKinnon is very good as well though, so if Peterson isn't doing well then that opens the door for McKinnon to be more involved.
I had higher expectations for the passing game before than I do now. I think the pass attempts stay very low and the Vikings milk the clock as much as they can all year now.
Anyhow I was working from the assumption that the Vikings would throw the ball more frequently and as part of that be in the shotgun formation more frequently, similar to how they were in 2014 with Teddy. McKinnon would get more snaps from being a better receiving option and also being more effective running out of the shotgun formation than Peterson has been.
Now they will still likely use a lot of shotgun formation still, and McKinnon will get snaps, as will Asiata at times. However with Hill I can definitely see them leaning on Peterson more and so perhaps significantly fewer passing attempts, and as part of that less shotgun formations and more 3TE and big formations than they used last season.
Teddy only had 447 passing attempts last season. I was expecting that to increase to 500. With Hill I think it stays about the same.
The Vikings ran the ball 474 times last season. 44 of those were Bridgewater. Hill likely only runs half as much as that. There were 22 runs by WR and FB last season, I could see this possibly going up with influences from Sparano.
So 420 rushing attempts for the RB. Peterson should get 320 of those, McKinnon 70 Asiata 30 would be my guess if the attempts stay the same. When expecting more QB runs and more use of McKinnon I was only projecting 300 rushing attempts for Peterson before Bridgewater was injured. I think that goes up now to 320 and possibly 350 if Peterson is effective enough.
McKinnon is very good as well though, so if Peterson isn't doing well then that opens the door for McKinnon to be more involved.
I had higher expectations for the passing game before than I do now. I think the pass attempts stay very low and the Vikings milk the clock as much as they can all year now.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
AdP had been able to beat stacked boxes in the past by wearing them down and breaking one in the fourth quarter but the Vikings scored 2 defensive TDs which took away two offensive series.
Minnesota's QB must not have been able to take advantage of what the defense handed him but I'm not sure Sam Bradford is going to turn this around.
Joe Giglio @JoeGiglioSports 20h20 hours ago
Sam Bradford has two career games with at least 275 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT and 100+ QB rating. Carson Wentz just did that in his first start.
Minnesota's QB must not have been able to take advantage of what the defense handed him but I'm not sure Sam Bradford is going to turn this around.
Joe Giglio
Sam Bradford has two career games with at least 275 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT and 100+ QB rating. Carson Wentz just did that in his first start.
