Adrian Peterson (1 Viewer)

[packersfan]

This is beautiful. Some FF players in this thread are running from him after a few down games like rats escaping a sinking ship. Unreal. Some guys just never learn. Write it on your foreheads with a magic marker if you have to ==> DON'T THINK SHORT TERM!

I am utterly amazed at the # of people here bailing on this guy. I can only pray this sentiment is the majority going into next season.3 sub-par games after an injury vs. 11 stellar games and now the guy is chopped liver.Let me say that I own ADP in 2 dynasty leagues and am worried all of 0% about him, his talent, his production, and his situation. EVERY player that has ever played has had a bad streak and bad games. You guys should really go back and watch some game film to remind yourselves this kid is something VERY special.

People are not down on him, they just don't think he is a top 2 pick in a redraft.

Precisely. I'm not bailing on him. As I posted before, I'm a huge fan of this kid. I think he has sick talent and potential. But there are some facts that, in my opinion, cannot be ignored. They are:1. An absolutely dreadful finish to the season - for fantasy owners the fact it came during playoff and championship weeks made it that much worse.2. The fact he's in a timeshare with another talented RB. 3. The fact he has next to no involvement in the passing game.Even if you ignore No. 1, the next two are strong factors working against him. He was able to be a RB1 in the first half of the season while sharing time with Taylor but the fact is he could not sustain that level of production. So if you're drafting him as your RB1 next season - and my guess is he goes Top 10 in most drafts even if Taylor is still on the team - he needs to be much more consistent than he was as a rookie. That certainly could happen but I still worry about Taylor's involvement and Peterson's lack of involvement in the passing game. Of the RBs I listed as ones I'd consider over Peterson, nearly every one of them is more involved as a receiver than Peterson is. So even if they aren't as talented as Peterson they're being given more of an opportunity than Peterson was this season. From a fantasy perspective, that's critical. There's no question from a talent perspective Peterson is more talented than Ryan Grant, for example, but from a fantasy perspective, the guy you wanted to close out the season was Grant. Even today Grant barely played and still smoked Peterson in every fantasy scoring league.

 

[packersfan]

And at someone mentioning Ryan Grant and Earnest Graham as fantasy peers to ADP.

In the last four weeks, both Grant and Graham had outperformed Peterson in standard scoring leagues. Grant outperformed AD again today despite only playing a quarter in a game the Packers didn't have to win whereas Peterson was playing a terrible run defense in a must-win game and stunk up the joint again. You want to laugh about something? Find the humor in the fact that Peterson was barely better than Graham today - and Graham didn't even play. That's a pretty good joke right there.

 

[monkeysee]

He's got to go top 3 in most redrafts next year. Who would you take above him? LT, sure, maybe Westbrook, but who else?

LTSjacksonAddaiWestyADP

Not to be a homer but if Ryan Grant remains the Green Bay starter I'd consider him ahead of Peterson. If Barber is the starter in Dallas, I'd consider him ahead of Peterson as well. Gore, McGahee, Portis and possibly Parker, Lynch and Graham also deserve consideration as well in my opinion.

Please keep this line of thinking people. Grant, Lynch, Barber, Gore, McGahee, Portis, Parker, and Graham need to be going ahead of Peterson next season. This guy was a flash in the pan.

 

[packersfan]

He's got to go top 3 in most redrafts next year. Who would you take above him? LT, sure, maybe Westbrook, but who else?

LTSjacksonAddaiWestyADP

Not to be a homer but if Ryan Grant remains the Green Bay starter I'd consider him ahead of Peterson. If Barber is the starter in Dallas, I'd consider him ahead of Peterson as well. Gore, McGahee, Portis and possibly Parker, Lynch and Graham also deserve consideration as well in my opinion.

Please keep this line of thinking people. Grant, Lynch, Barber, Gore, McGahee, Portis, Parker, and Graham need to be going ahead of Peterson next season. This guy was a flash in the pan.

Pretty sure I never said that. But all of those RBs could be in situations where they are getting 20+ touches a game (assuming Grant, Barber and Graham are the starters, of course). Peterson is a major talent but I have listed the reasons why there might be some reason to be concerned about him going into next season. If you don't share that viewpoint I'd be interested in hearing why. And to go off topic, Marshawn Lynch is pretty damn good and in my opinion would have been the runaway winner of the Rookie of the Year award in a lot of other seasons. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he made a huge jump up the fantasy rankings next year.

 

[pizzatyme]

I love how people are already projecting draft ADP when the offseason moves haven't happened yet.

What if the Vikes move Taylor out and bring in an experienced QB to push Jackson. What if they also bring in a top tier WR like a Chad Johnson?

How does this impact your projections?

I know everyone is eager to move on, but we have to let the off-season moves play out.

 

[packersfan]

I love how people are already projecting draft ADP when the offseason moves haven't happened yet.What if the Vikes move Taylor out and bring in an experienced QB to push Jackson. What if they also bring in a top tier WR like a Chad Johnson?How does this impact your projections?I know everyone is eager to move on, but we have to let the off-season moves play out.

I acknowledged a lot can happen between now and next season and obviously a lot will. But I thought I'd toss it out there as a topic of discussion in light of Peterson throwing up another dog of a game to close out the season.

 

[pizzatyme]

I love how people are already projecting draft ADP when the offseason moves haven't happened yet.What if the Vikes move Taylor out and bring in an experienced QB to push Jackson. What if they also bring in a top tier WR like a Chad Johnson?How does this impact your projections?I know everyone is eager to move on, but we have to let the off-season moves play out.

I acknowledged a lot can happen between now and next season and obviously a lot will. But I thought I'd toss it out there as a topic of discussion in light of Peterson throwing up another dog of a game to close out the season.

No offense intended with my post. It wasn't directed at anyone specifically. I like projecting talent, but I also think when people make projections, they need to state what they think it takes to make their projections valid.I can say Westy will be #2 overall, but I need to qualify that by also saying only if Reid and McNabb are still in the picture.Make sense?No problem in the discussion, just in that some explanation needs to accompany the projections IMO.

 

[packersfan]

I've laid out some possible reasons that could lead people to re-consider where they project Peterson for next season. All of them potentially negatively impact his fantasy potential and all of them did negatively impact his production to close out this season. All I'm doing is asking whether his incredibly poor finish will lead anyone to wonder about his prospects for next season - assuming Taylor is still with the team. When you have a guy go from RB1 for most of the season to an RB4 to close out the year, I think it merits some discussion about what his prospects might be like for the following season. That was a rather significant drop-off in production we saw from Peterson in the last month. And given how easy most of his matchups were, it was pretty shocking.

 

[pizzatyme]

I've laid out some possible reasons that could lead people to re-consider where they project Peterson for next season. All of them potentially negatively impact his fantasy potential and all of them did negatively impact his production to close out this season. All I'm doing is asking whether his incredibly poor finish will lead anyone to wonder about his prospects for next season - assuming Taylor is still with the team. When you have a guy go from RB1 for most of the season to an RB4 to close out the year, I think it merits some discussion about what his prospects might be like for the following season. That was a rather significant drop-off in production we saw from Peterson in the last month. And given how easy most of his matchups were, it was pretty shocking.

A big drop? Yes.I think he took the league by surprise in a time that coincided with the Vikes getting hot. Once the competition adjusted to ADP and forced T. Jackson to beat them, it obviously affected his production.You make good points, I guess we'll see what the Vikes do in the off-season to help him.I like the kid and hope he meets his apparent potential.

 

[kingmalaki]

Yeah, I wonder the same thing myself. I am in a 1 man keeper league and will have to decide between AP, Addai and Lynch next season. Addai also has his big games and he is pretty constant as long as Indy has something to play for, and I just have a feeling Lynch will blow up next season.

 

[Raider Nation]

He's a Hall of Famer, the best back in the league, and quite probably the best to ever play the game. Here's the memo:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=355997

Baker,Show us on the doll where the bad man touched you.

 

[EdwardCat]

I think the worst part about this is all the agonizing everyone will do over Peterson. It is sort of like your friend coming over for a nice dinner. Then, just as he's about to leave, he tells you he has something he wants to tell you about your wife but can't talk now. Peterson and his projections will be beaten to death and then some during this offseason. It will get old and tiresome. Regardless, he will be one of the top RBs drafted next year.

 

[eagles2007]

Take a look at where Peterson finished among RBs in scoring your league before writing him off. He's going to finish 3rd in my league I'm pretty sure. The two ahead of him are LT2 and Westbrook. Those are the only two I would rank ahead of him with certainty going into next year in a dynasty/keeper.

Seems like he's a pretty good kid, too. Not sure where all the hatred comes from.

 

[Kwai Chang Caine]

And here's a reference point for you morons:LT's rookie year final four games:19-5117-4627-14514-38NO TOUCHDOWNS. So, basically, his final four games are right in line with Peterson's. Now what's your argument for his continued failure?

Again, perhaps this speaks to the rookie wall. I seem to remember the state of LTs team wasn't so hot back then. Certainly not like it has been the past three years or so. And again did the people here that are bashing Peterson actually watch this kid? I mean really watch this kid play? No way he's a fluke. He's just not superhuman like many of us want him to be. Just on how I saw him play this year I would not hesitate to take him 2nd beind LT and maybe first anyway. Didn't LT have a pretty crappy stretch during the middle of the year? How about Gore after he looked amazing last year. How did he look for most of the year in that situation in SF? Again, I think we have seen ADP's floor, I would love the chance to have him and see his ceiling.

 

[Routilla]

AP is the greatest RB of all time. I just wonder how his '07 performance will motivate Tatum Bell in '08.

 

[Pipes]

And here's a reference point for you morons:LT's rookie year final four games:19-5117-4627-14514-38NO TOUCHDOWNS. So, basically, his final four games are right in line with Peterson's. Now what's your argument for his continued failure?

Reading comprehension down?Since when does uncertainty = failure? The questions brought up in this thread are legit and most question the Vikings and their offense not Peterson and his ability. Peterson is undoubtedly one of if not the most talented backs in the league but if the Vikings enter 2008 with the same crappy passing attack and a good 2nd back in Chester Taylor it makes taking Peterson in the top 5 a somewhat risky pick.

 

[bcr8f]

And here's a reference point for you morons:

LT's rookie year final four games:

19-51

17-46

27-145

14-38

NO TOUCHDOWNS.

So, basically, his final four games are right in line with Peterson's.

Now what's your argument for his continued failure?

Childress is head coach.

 

[Franknbeans]

And here's a reference point for you morons:

LT's rookie year final four games:

19-51

17-46

27-145

14-38

NO TOUCHDOWNS.

So, basically, his final four games are right in line with Peterson's.

Now what's your argument for his continued failure?

Childress is head coach.

That's the argument for the Vikings failure

 

[Keys Myaths]

And here's a reference point for you morons:LT's rookie year final four games:19-5117-4627-14514-38NO TOUCHDOWNS. So, basically, his final four games are right in line with Peterson's. Now what's your argument for his continued failure?

This would've been a fantastic point if you didn't seek to call everyone a moron.

 

[Mr. Pink]

I've seen enough of Peterson this year to convince me he is a transcendent running back, in the same vein as Eric Dickerson. I was humbled by what I saw from him this year. Attribute what you wish for his sub par performance to close the season, rookie wall, injury, general "flash in the pan" commentary, but don't ignore the fact that this is a special running back who possesses a skill set greater than any of his current peers, and yes I will include LT in that group. His opportunity may not be as great as some backs who will go higher in redrafts next year, but his talent is unquestioned.

If you pass him up in drafts next year, you do so at your own peril.

 

[Keys Myaths]

I've seen enough of Peterson this year to convince me he is a transcendent running back, in the same vein as Eric Dickerson. I was humbled by what I saw from him this year. Attribute what you wish for his sub par performance to close the season, rookie wall, injury, general "flash in the pan" commentary, but don't ignore the fact that this is a special running back who possesses a skill set greater than any of his current peers, and yes I will include LT in that group. His opportunity may not be as great as some backs who will go higher in redrafts next year, but his talent is unquestioned.If you pass him up in drafts next year, you do so at your own peril.

This is my thought as well.He's got a great OL, he won't be coming off of injury, and he looked like one of the absolute best ever at times this year.Could he disappoint and finish at RB8 or RB9 next year? Anything's possible. Could he set a new standard at RB? Yep.If he slips further than RB3 during drafts next year, there's something wrong with the economic structure of fantasy football. I have him set at RB2, and I need to look at running back dropoffs after a certain amount of carries to see if I need to bump LT down.

 

[Kwai Chang Caine]

I've seen enough of Peterson this year to convince me he is a transcendent running back, in the same vein as Eric Dickerson. I was humbled by what I saw from him this year. Attribute what you wish for his sub par performance to close the season, rookie wall, injury, general "flash in the pan" commentary, but don't ignore the fact that this is a special running back who possesses a skill set greater than any of his current peers, and yes I will include LT in that group. His opportunity may not be as great as some backs who will go higher in redrafts next year, but his talent is unquestioned.If you pass him up in drafts next year, you do so at your own peril.

This is my thought as well.He's got a great OL, he won't be coming off of injury, and he looked like one of the absolute best ever at times this year.Could he disappoint and finish at RB8 or RB9 next year? Anything's possible. Could he set a new standard at RB? Yep.If he slips further than RB3 during drafts next year, there's something wrong with the economic structure of fantasy football. I have him set at RB2, and I need to look at running back dropoffs after a certain amount of carries to see if I need to bump LT down.

Again good points. I honestly believ that given the nature of our hobby and the "information now" era that we live in, many people track more games on NFL.com than actually watch someone play. In the market I live in, I got to see only about four of his games in total, one of which was the game against the Chargers and again I have never, ever seen a game by a RB like that one. Ever. I can't imagine passing him up if given the opportunity. I mean, he broke the single game record as a rookie against a pretty darn good defense. Everyone has a bad game or a bad stretch. FF is a lot of luck. Last year I had LT and during that amazing run what was the one game he didn't have a TD? Week 16 and many of us lost the title game. How about Brady and Romo this year? How many lost when they had a bad game at an inoppotune time? People talking about taking Graham or Grant over this kid are reacting emotionally based on a couple of games IMHO. I believ Mr. Pink said it, this kid's talent is "trancendent." That's a good word to describe him I think.

 

[Phurfur]

This is beautiful. Some FF players in this thread are running from him after a few down games like rats escaping a sinking ship. Unreal. Some guys just never learn. Write it on your foreheads with a magic marker if you have to ==> DON'T THINK SHORT TERM!

:( I am utterly amazed at the # of people here bailing on this guy. I can only pray this sentiment is the majority going into next season.3 sub-par games after an injury vs. 11 stellar games and now the guy is chopped liver.Let me say that I own ADP in 2 dynasty leagues and am worried all of 0% about him, his talent, his production, and his situation. EVERY player that has ever played has had a bad streak and bad games. You guys should really go back and watch some game film to remind yourselves this kid is something VERY special.

People are not down on him, they just don't think he is a top 2 pick in a redraft.

Sorry guy. Not thinking he's a top 2 pick doesn't equal what you said in post #2 above: "No, I never drank the kool-aid. I never crown someone on potential. I do think he will improve and become a good RB."At least keep your story straight within the same thread.

The media and half this board were calling him the greatest RB of all time after his big game, that is the koolaid I didn't drink. I also said I though he was a mid first round pick, that is pretty consistant. What is your point anyway, most people don't think he earned the top 2 spot. So what, you act like he is your brother.

 

[H.K.]

3. The fact he has next to no involvement in the passing game.

If you get this guy the ball with any kind of room to work with, he can take it all the way.This year he had 19 receptions for 268 yards, average of over 14 yards a catch. Why on earth the Vikings would only throw it to him one or two times a games is a mystery...

 

[Jayrod]

And at someone mentioning Ryan Grant and Earnest Graham as fantasy peers to ADP.

In the last four weeks, both Grant and Graham had outperformed Peterson in standard scoring leagues. Grant outperformed AD again today despite only playing a quarter in a game the Packers didn't have to win whereas Peterson was playing a terrible run defense in a must-win game and stunk up the joint again. You want to laugh about something? Find the humor in the fact that Peterson was barely better than Graham today - and Graham didn't even play. That's a pretty good joke right there.

Out of the 12 weeks that the two of them were both playing, Peterson outscored Graham in 8 of them in my fantasy league. He outscored him by 75 points for the year while playing in one fewer games.Out of the 12 weeks that the two of them were both playing, Peterson outscored Grant in 8 of them in my fantasy league. He outscored him by 133 points on the year while playing in one fewere games.Sure you could cherry pick a 4 game stretch where most starting running backs outscored Peterson, but only a couple (LT & Westy) had better seasons this year and no one had a better single game this season.Peterson also finished in the top 10 among all RB's 8 out of 13 weeks this season, being #1 twice and top 5 six times.Graham and Grant are not in the conversation no matter how you want to look at it. Actually no one besides LT, Westy and Addai should be at this point, and the situation in Minnesota will likely only get better before next season.

 

[Tom Baker]

And to go off topic, Marshawn Lynch is pretty damn good and in my opinion would have been the runaway winner of the Rookie of the Year award in a lot of other seasons. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he made a huge jump up the fantasy rankings next year.

Lynch had more carries than Peterson, played behind a much worse line than Peterson, took more hits than Peterson, and yet was still playing at a high level at the end of the year. Guess they don't have a rookie wall in Buffalo? By the way, LT didn't win Rookie of the Year either . . .

 

[mr. furley]

i questioned the decision to let him come back so quickly (if at all) and was SKEWERED when he went for 116 against the Lions.

still think it was a bad idea to bring him back after 3 weeks. imo, that knee never recovered enough. hopefully he isn't damaged goods now.

 

[Keys Myaths]

i questioned the decision to let him come back so quickly (if at all) and was SKEWERED when he went for 116 against the Lions.still think it was a bad idea to bring him back after 3 weeks. imo, that knee never recovered enough. hopefully he isn't damaged goods now.

I'm really hoping people think he is damaged goods, especially in longer-term leagues. If there was ever a time to pick up a special player relatively cheap, this is the offseason.

 

[jonessed]

And here's a reference point for you morons:LT's rookie year final four games:19-5117-4627-14514-38NO TOUCHDOWNS. So, basically, his final four games are right in line with Peterson's. Now what's your argument for his continued failure?

Again, perhaps this speaks to the rookie wall. I seem to remember the state of LTs team wasn't so hot back then. Certainly not like it has been the past three years or so. And again did the people here that are bashing Peterson actually watch this kid? I mean really watch this kid play? No way he's a fluke. He's just not superhuman like many of us want him to be. Just on how I saw him play this year I would not hesitate to take him 2nd beind LT and maybe first anyway. Didn't LT have a pretty crappy stretch during the middle of the year? How about Gore after he looked amazing last year. How did he look for most of the year in that situation in SF? Again, I think we have seen ADP's floor, I would love the chance to have him and see his ceiling.

Oh come on... the Chargers were 5-11 that season, losing their last nine games. ADP is playing behind one of the best offesnsive lines in the league on a team that was vying for a playoff spot up until the end. It's not like Chester is having trouble putting up numbers. His situation is nothing like LTs rookie year. I expect he will be splitting carries up until he can demonstrate he has the durability for a full year. Maybe he has it, maybe he doesn't. He has incredible talent, but it takes more than that to be consistent.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

But it gets annoying to see you continually assert that AP has played poorly. It's just ridiculous.

Here is what Peterson did in the last four games of the season:14-3-0

20-78-2

9-27-0

11-36-0

That's 54 carries for 144 yards, an average of 2.7 yards per carry.

Feel free to use another adjective but I can't see how anyone could look at that production and consider it something other than poor.

I don't disagree AT ALL that his production was poor. But that's a pretty big difference than saying "AP played poorly". He didn't PLAY poorly - he had poor results. Do you get the difference?

 

[urbanhack]

i questioned the decision to let him come back so quickly (if at all) and was SKEWERED when he went for 116 against the Lions.still think it was a bad idea to bring him back after 3 weeks. imo, that knee never recovered enough. hopefully he isn't damaged goods now.

You on call this weekend?

 

[Kwai Chang Caine]

And here's a reference point for you morons:LT's rookie year final four games:19-5117-4627-14514-38NO TOUCHDOWNS. So, basically, his final four games are right in line with Peterson's. Now what's your argument for his continued failure?

Again, perhaps this speaks to the rookie wall. I seem to remember the state of LTs team wasn't so hot back then. Certainly not like it has been the past three years or so. And again did the people here that are bashing Peterson actually watch this kid? I mean really watch this kid play? No way he's a fluke. He's just not superhuman like many of us want him to be. Just on how I saw him play this year I would not hesitate to take him 2nd beind LT and maybe first anyway. Didn't LT have a pretty crappy stretch during the middle of the year? How about Gore after he looked amazing last year. How did he look for most of the year in that situation in SF? Again, I think we have seen ADP's floor, I would love the chance to have him and see his ceiling.

Oh come on... the Chargers were 5-11 that season, losing their last nine games. ADP is playing behind one of the best offesnsive lines in the league on a team that was vying for a playoff spot up until the end. It's not like Chester is having trouble putting up numbers. His situation is nothing like LTs rookie year. I expect he will be splitting carries up until he can demonstrate he has the durability for a full year. Maybe he has it, maybe he doesn't. He has incredible talent, but it takes more than that to be consistent.

LT has a pretty good team this year as well. Didn't he have a rough stretch at some point this year? Hey, go ahead and think he may not be consistent. It's your choice but given the opputuinity to grab this guy either one or two next year I'm taking it. Maybe I'm a "glass half full" kind of guy. And oh by the way, LT did have better QB play from Flutie his rookie year than AP ever had this year from Jackson IMHO. It's nice having a great line but what good it is when a def. knows they only have to defend one option. And stop with the Taylor talk. His numbers don't compare to AP this year. I bet you 32 GMs would take AP and day over Taylor.

 

[mr. furley]

i questioned the decision to let him come back so quickly (if at all) and was SKEWERED when he went for 116 against the Lions.still think it was a bad idea to bring him back after 3 weeks. imo, that knee never recovered enough. hopefully he isn't damaged goods now.

You on call this weekend?

24/7, ay' yo 365, damn it feels good to be a doctor