Adrian Peterson (1 Viewer)

[David Yudkin]

I don't need 8 seasons to tell you that Peterson will one day be in the hall. I can watch him play for 5 minutes and tell you that.

I don't see anyone arguing against ADP having the talent to make the HOF. The question is if he can stay healthy, stay productive, and remain an elite player for 8 years. I suspect everyone is saying the same thing, which is yes he would be a HOFer if he kept this up for 8 years.I already posted a list of players that did very well early on, and many of them made it to the HOF and many of them didn't. I don't think it's asking too much to say that a guy ahead after 150 miles of the Indy 500 is a lock to win the race.So to answer the question, agin, as others have already indicated, if ADP continues on his current pace for 5-6 more years then he would have a high probability of being a HOFer. He's tracking on a HOF career . . . IF he keeps it up.But a lot could happen in the next few years . . . the Vikes offense could be terrible, he could get injured, they could bring in another back and cut his workload in half, he could continue to fumble a ton, etc.Maybe we should start a Steven Strasburg HOF thread too, because if he keeps averaging 10 strikeouts a game with a 1.78 ERA for 15 more years he would be a HOF lock.

Right, the question here is basically "do you think Adrian Peterson will continue putting up elite production throughout the remainder of his career?". That's why I was saying it's silly for people to say "well let's see how the rest of his career shakes out first", because predicting the rest of his career is basically the whole point in this thread. It's like someone doing their projections at the end of the season rather than beginning. They're not really doing anything at all.Yes, there are things that could happen. Peterson could get injured. The Vikings offense could be terrible (though that didn't slow him down before). They could cut his workload in half. Or, he could just end up having been overrated all along and see his production drop off because he's not as good as we thought he was. The point in this thread is, do you think one of those things are going to happen, or do you think Adrian Peterson is going to put up 1800 yards at a high ypc for each of the next 4-5 years?Like I said, personally I think the latter is much more likely. Peterson isn't just some RB flavor of the week who came in and started putting up good numbers. He was a once in a decade prospect, who looked every bit as talented as everyone said he was, and now has produced at a high level to go along with it. If Jamaal Charles puts up 1800 yards each of the next two seasons are we going to be having this same thread about him? No, because he's not the once in a lifetime type player that everyone thought was going to be a stud ahead of time, and makes our jaws drop with some of the things he can do.Matt Ryan has put up efficiency numbers after his first two years in the league that were just as good as Peyton's were after he had been in the league for a few years. Who did people think was more likely to make the HoF at that point in their career? I would say that the resounding majority would have said Peyton. He wasn't just another young QB that had a few good years. He was clearly different, the way he commanded the field, the way he worked, the type of passes he threw (heavy amounts of tight timing routes even early in his career). Heck, I would wager that more people thought Peyton was likely to make the HoF after a few years in the league than people that think Rogers is likely to at this point in his career, and Rodger's numbers the past two years have been far better than Peyton's were at that stage of his.Adrian Peterson is the Peyton Manning of running backs. You gave us that list of running backs that started their careers like Adrian Peterson does. I wasn't watching football back in the olden days with Dickerson, etc so I don't know how those guys compared. But you put Adrian Peterson's name next to any of those guys on that list (dating back to the 90's, again I can't comment on the guys before that) and only give me the knowledge of what they did their first three years in the league, then ask me which one I think is the most likely to keep that production up and finish as a hall of famer, and I would have taken Adrian Peterson over any of them.To use your Strasburg example. If three years from now Strasburg, a guy who was bread to pitch in the major leagues, a guy who everyone thought was going to be one of the best pitchers of the era, also has three years of elite MLB production behind him, wouldn't you consider him more likely to continue playing well enough to end up as a HoF'er than some random pitcher that comes in out of nowhere and has a few great years in a good situation?Peyton Manning, Larry Fitzgerald, and Adrian Peterson are probably the only guys who I would have said "yeah, that guy will almost definitely end up in the hall of fame" after only three years in the league. They're just on a different level.

My point was (and still is) that so much can happen down the road that no matter how good a player is after three years, we won't be able to consider his HOF credentials until a player actually earns them. I think most would agree that ADP has produced as a HOF worthy back so far, that's not what's really the issue. As with other backs, things change. The Vikings could be terrible and the OL could be terrible. His totals could slip. His team could be horrible for 5 years and not win anything (a la Corey Dillon). Football is not a one player game, and if the surrounding talent around him gets worse, ADP's numbers could very easily suffer with the rest of the offense.A LOT can change. There could be a lock out and no football next year. Suppose having a year off he comes back a different guy out of shape and nowhere near as effective. We just don't know.For example, in terms of reception totals through 7 years played, guys in the top ten include Sterling Sharpe, Anquan Boldin, Keyshawn Johnson, and Herman Moore (with Andre Rison and Laveranues Coles right on the cusp). At this point, are those guys HOF locks? Are they even legit candidates?I realize ADP is closer to the top than most guys at this point, so he may very well stand a better chance to have a higher and longer peak than most players. But while it may be a cop out answer, we will just have to wait and see.

 

[SSOG]

Peyton Manning, Larry Fitzgerald, and Adrian Peterson are probably the only guys who I would have said "yeah, that guy will almost definitely end up in the hall of fame" after only three years in the league. They're just on a different level.

If that's true, then kudos to you. I'm sure a ton of people would have said the same thing about Isaac Bruce, Clinton Portis, and Edgerrin James, too. And there are a lot of people today who will say the same thing about Calvin Johnson.I do agree with your larger point- obviously nobody thinks he's in right now, and obviously if he gets injured tomorrow he's not going to make it, so this is largely a projection exercise. My answer at this point, though, is "I don't have enough information yet to feel comfortable making a projection".

 

[Ditkaless Wonders]

My eyes tell me that he already is not the back of his first two years. Last year he looked slower, less powerful, and indecisive. Maybe that was ijury, or maybe he will be one of those that wears out faster than others.

A remarkable talent, but I have questions already. Perhaps he will answer them this year with more decisive play.

 

[ookook]

My eyes tell me that he already is not the back of his first two years. Last year he looked slower, less powerful, and indecisive. Maybe that was ijury, or maybe he will be one of those that wears out faster than others.A remarkable talent, but I have questions already. Perhaps he will answer them this year with more decisive play.

I will go out on the limb here and say "yes".Based on everything I know, I think his production will continue at a high enough rate to give him a good chance. Not "lock", but good chance.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

My point was (and still is) that so much can happen down the road that no matter how good a player is after three years, we won't be able to consider his HOF credentials until a player actually earns them. I think most would agree that ADP has produced as a HOF worthy back so far, that's not what's really the issue.

As with other backs, things change. The Vikings could be terrible and the OL could be terrible. His totals could slip. His team could be horrible for 5 years and not win anything (a la Corey Dillon). Football is not a one player game, and if the surrounding talent around him gets worse, ADP's numbers could very easily suffer with the rest of the offense.

A LOT can change. There could be a lock out and no football next year. Suppose having a year off he comes back a different guy out of shape and nowhere near as effective. We just don't know.

For example, in terms of reception totals through 7 years played, guys in the top ten include Sterling Sharpe, Anquan Boldin, Keyshawn Johnson, and Herman Moore (with Andre Rison and Laveranues Coles right on the cusp). At this point, are those guys HOF locks? Are they even legit candidates?

I realize ADP is closer to the top than most guys at this point, so he may very well stand a better chance to have a higher and longer peak than most players. But while it may be a cop out answer, we will just have to wait and see.

Of course any of those things you mentioned could happen. The Vikings could become the new Rams. Adrian Peterson could run for 800 yards at 3.2ypc next year. He could shred his knee up. Any one of a million things could happen that could make Peterson's career fizzle out. That much is obvious to the point that I don't know why it keeps getting repeated in this thread. That's why this is a predictive exercise. Heck, this is a fantasy football board, most of our exercises are of a predictive nature where one of a billion things could happen, but we're trying to predict which will.If you went to your other staffers and said "hey guys, time to turn in those projections for 2010", what would you say if they responded with "Sorry David, anything could happen in 2010. Any of these guys could get hurt, we don't know how good there team will be, there are just too many variables. I'll need to see weeks 1-16 before I can give you my projections for their end of year totals".

So, think of the question like this. If I ask you if 15 years from now Adrian Peterson will be in the hall of fame, and tell you that if you get the answer right you'll win a million dollars, is your answer yes or no?

There are lots of players that started their careers as total studs and ended up fizzling out soon after. There are lots of players that started their careers as total studs and went on to become all-time greats. Which one do you think Peterson will be? To me, Peterson is more likely to fall into the latter category than any RB I've personally seen at this point in their career before. I would say the same thing about Larry Fitzgerald as a WR.

 

[David Yudkin]

My point was (and still is) that so much can happen down the road that no matter how good a player is after three years, we won't be able to consider his HOF credentials until a player actually earns them. I think most would agree that ADP has produced as a HOF worthy back so far, that's not what's really the issue.

As with other backs, things change. The Vikings could be terrible and the OL could be terrible. His totals could slip. His team could be horrible for 5 years and not win anything (a la Corey Dillon). Football is not a one player game, and if the surrounding talent around him gets worse, ADP's numbers could very easily suffer with the rest of the offense.

A LOT can change. There could be a lock out and no football next year. Suppose having a year off he comes back a different guy out of shape and nowhere near as effective. We just don't know.

For example, in terms of reception totals through 7 years played, guys in the top ten include Sterling Sharpe, Anquan Boldin, Keyshawn Johnson, and Herman Moore (with Andre Rison and Laveranues Coles right on the cusp). At this point, are those guys HOF locks? Are they even legit candidates?

I realize ADP is closer to the top than most guys at this point, so he may very well stand a better chance to have a higher and longer peak than most players. But while it may be a cop out answer, we will just have to wait and see.

Of course any of those things you mentioned could happen. The Vikings could become the new Rams. Adrian Peterson could run for 800 yards at 3.2ypc next year. He could shred his knee up. Any one of a million things could happen that could make Peterson's career fizzle out. That much is obvious to the point that I don't know why it keeps getting repeated in this thread. That's why this is a predictive exercise. Heck, this is a fantasy football board, most of our exercises are of a predictive nature where one of a billion things could happen, but we're trying to predict which will.If you went to your other staffers and said "hey guys, time to turn in those projections for 2010", what would you say if they responded with "Sorry David, anything could happen in 2010. Any of these guys could get hurt, we don't know how good there team will be, there are just too many variables. I'll need to see weeks 1-16 before I can give you my projections for their end of year totals".

So, think of the question like this. If I ask you if 15 years from now Adrian Peterson will be in the hall of fame, and tell you that if you get the answer right you'll win a million dollars, is your answer yes or no?

There are lots of players that started their careers as total studs and ended up fizzling out soon after. There are lots of players that started their careers as total studs and went on to become all-time greats. Which one do you think Peterson will be? To me, Peterson is more likely to fall into the latter category than any RB I've personally seen at this point in their career before. I would say the same thing about Larry Fitzgerald as a WR.

The 2010 staff analogy is a bit off IMO in that we are talking about a single season. We know the players involved, the schedules, the coaching staff, etc. Not much is going to change in the next few months. The teams are not going to make major coaching or personnel changes and we know what the criteria are from team to team.Once you start guessing 4, 5, 6 years down the road it's a different story. For example in Minnesota's case, I don't think it's unjustified to wonder if the OL will get old and retire, Favre will be gone in another year or two, the team may not be as competitive, say Sidney Rice leaves via free agency, the coaching staff gets let go, and things are nowhere near as rosy.

There may not be a great chance that those happen, but those are things to have to stop and at least consider.

Look at the Patriots and tell me what to expect in 3 years. Brady, Moss, and Welker could all be gone, they have no real RB at all now, and they could have an entirely different OL, so what would you project for them and their offense in 2013?

As for your question of if you had to bet would ADP become a HOFer, I would say he would have a greater chance than other players at his age but the % chance would still have to be on the low side. So if other players had a 25% of making it, maybe he has a 35% chance. But if I were to bet on any third year player, I would bet against all of them as too much could happen. With each subsequent solid or elite year, I would up each player's chances by 10%.

As for Fitzgerald, what's interesting is that Fitz's and Boldin's numbers were very similar in their time in Arizona. Many feel Fitz is tracking on a can't miss HOF career . . . but what about Boldin? He ranks #1 ALL TIME in receiving yards per game. But I'm not sure people view him in the same light as Fitzgerald.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

The 2010 staff analogy is a bit off IMO in that we are talking about a single season. We know the players involved, the schedules, the coaching staff, etc. Not much is going to change in the next few months. The teams are not going to make major coaching or personnel changes and we know what the criteria are from team to team.

Think of it like a rookie draft then. By and large, you're picking those guys based on what you think they'll amount to for their career. Besides, those things aren't easily predictable even for a single season, we've seen a gajillion examples of this.

Once you start guessing 4, 5, 6 years down the road it's a different story. For example in Minnesota's case, I don't think it's unjustified to wonder if the OL will get old and retire, Favre will be gone in another year or two, the team may not be as competitive, say Sidney Rice leaves via free agency, the coaching staff gets let go, and things are nowhere near as rosy.

To me, Adrian Peterson is the kind of guy that could overcome those situations. He's already played with a crappy O-line (it baffles me how many people still fail to realize how horrendously awful Minnesota's run blocking was last year), and he's already played without Favre.LT is most likely a hall of famer. If San Diego didn't turn into a good team during his last few years there, would he still have been a hall of famer? I think so, because like Peterson, he's a guy that trancends situation.

There may not be a great chance that those happen, but those are things to have to stop and at least consider.Look at the Patriots and tell me what to expect in 3 years. Brady, Moss, and Welker could all be gone, they have no real RB at all now, and they could have an entirely different OL, so what would you project for them and their offense in 2013? As for your question of if you had to bet would ADP become a HOFer, I would say he would have a greater chance than other players at his age but the % chance would still have to be on the low side. So if other players had a 25% of making it, maybe he has a 35% chance. But if I were to bet on any third year player, I would bet against all of them as too much could happen. With each subsequent solid or elite year, I would up each player's chances by 10%.

That's fair, and that's really all I was looking for. I would put his chances much higher personally, but this stuff is pretty much 100% opinion so there's no right or wrong here.

As for Fitzgerald, what's interesting is that Fitz's and Boldin's numbers were very similar in their time in Arizona. Many feel Fitz is tracking on a can't miss HOF career . . . but what about Boldin? He ranks #1 ALL TIME in receiving yards per game. But I'm not sure people view him in the same light as Fitzgerald.

This is kind of what I was talking about, and why I brought Fitzgerald up a few posts earlier. IMO, there are three guys that transcend their numbers both in ability, and in reputation. Peyton Manning at quarterback, Larry Fitzgerald at WR, and Adrian Peterson at running back. There are other players putting up similar numbers to them, but they aren't looked at in the same light. Simply put they have clear, demonstrable, excessive talent and ability to do things that no other players can, even players putting up similar numbers.Larry Fitzgerald didn't do any more in his first 3 years as a starter than Roddy White has in his first 3 years as a starter, but compare how people looked at Fitzgerald back then versus how people look at Roddy now. Fitzgerald was "different', he was "special". It wasn't just the numbers, it was what you saw with your eyes, alongside the numbers. Fitzgerald has the most incredible hands I've ever seen out of a WR (again, I can't comment on the olden days here). It's easy to see.I see the same thing when I watch Peterson. He does things that no other player can, things that make your jaw drop. People thought he was going to be doing exactly what he's doing right now, way back when he was a young high schooler.To bring up another example, Lebron James after a few years hadn't done anything different than a ton of other players had done, statistically. But if I asked you to put LeBron alongside those guys and pick which one was more likely to continue putting up those numbers throughout the remainder of your career, who would you have picked?

 

[Tau837]

To bring up another example, Lebron James after a few years hadn't done anything different than a ton of other players had done, statistically. But if I asked you to put LeBron alongside those guys and pick which one was more likely to continue putting up those numbers throughout the remainder of your career, who would you have picked?

I think the bolded is incorrect. After Lebron had been in the NBA for a few years, he was just 21. I am pretty certain that what he had done/accomplished by that point was quite different than other players at the same age. I am not aware of any player who could have matched him statistically through age 21.That said, I don't think it is critical to the point you are making.

 

[Tau837]

So, think of the question like this. If I ask you if 15 years from now Adrian Peterson will be in the hall of fame, and tell you that if you get the answer right you'll win a million dollars, is your answer yes or no?

I'd definitely answer this with a no. He might not even be eligible by then, and, if he is, he might have only been eligible for a year or two. Even if he is HOF worthy, there is no guarantee that he will be a first ballot lock.ETA: Of course the way you phrased this question is quite different than the thread discussion, which doesn't put a specific timeframe on his induction. I'd still bet against him if the question were simply whether or not he will ever make it, since I agree with David that his chances, while better than others at a similar age, are still well below 50%. Too many variables to feel confident about it.Plus, if I was going to get a million dollars if he makes it, it's all on him and a lot of factors out of my control. If I was going to get a million dollars if he doesn't make it, I could plan a Tanya Harding like intervention if he started getting too close...