AFCCG: Steelers at Patriots Discussion (2 Viewers)

[Anarchy99]

I still don't grasp how the Patriots-didn't-face-a-decent-QB narrative can be used by Steelers fans, yet the Steelers-didn't-face-a-decent-QB counterargument gets literally swept under the rug. Here is the list of the two teams and the QBs they faced with year end rankings from PFF.

NE

SEA - Wilson (6)
ARI - Palmer (14)
CIN - Dalton (17)
MIA - Tannehill (18)
BUF - Taylor (20)
BUF - Taylor (20)
BAL - Flacco (23)
DEN - Siemian (27)
SFO - Kaepernick (29)
LAR - Goff (30)
NYJ - Fitzgerald (31)
NYJ - Fitzgerald (31)
HOU - Osweiler (32)
HOU - Osweilwer (32)
PIT - Landry (NR)
MIA - Moore (NR)
CLE - Whitehurst (NR)

PIT

NEP - Brady (1)
DAL - Prescott (12)
WAS - Cousins (13)
CIN - Dalton (17)
CIN - Dalton (17)
MIA - Tannenhill (18)
BUF - Taylor (20)
KCC - Smith (21)
KCC - Smith (21)
PHI - Wentz (22)
BAL - Flacco (23)
BAL - Flacco (23)
NYG - Manning (24)
CLE - Kessler (28)
NYJ - Fitzgerald (31)
MIA - Moore (NR)
CLE - Griffin (NR)
IND - Tolzien (NR)

So the argument that the NE defense won't be able to slow down the Steelers offense certainly seems like that it should be applied going the other way.

 

[Copeman]

I did some statistical analysis of my own.  I came to this conclusion:

I think whichever team scores the most points will probably win the game.  That's what I think.

 

[Anarchy99]

I did some statistical analysis of my own.  I came to this conclusion:

I think whichever team scores the most points will probably win the game.  That's what I think.

There is a pretty decent chance this is an accurate statement. You've got a 50/50% chance of guessing right.

 

[Bossman]

I did some statistical analysis of my own.  I came to this conclusion:

I think whichever team scores the most points will probably win the game.  That's what I think.

you can't honestly believe this.

 

[Bossman]

I'm thinking the Steelers will need 9 or 10 FG's this week to keep it close.

 

[kyoun1e]

So the argument that the NE defense won't be able to slow down the Steelers offense certainly seems like that it should be applied going the other way.

I see very little difference in QBs faced. Only difference is maybe PIT's opening 3, but at this point, that was a long time ago.

Agree that this argument needs to be thrown out because it's a wash.

 

[Anarchy99]

Interesting.  If you have the 2nd half numbers without all kinds of additional work I'd be interested.  Since the Steelers vastly improved (record-wise) in the 2nd half of the season.

I'd be interested if both 7-1 records in the 2nd half say about the same thing or if one is better than the other.  Plus it would get rid of the Ben/Brady missed games earlier in the year.

I did not go and re-calibrate based on whether Ben or Brady played (so likely less accurate without doing that). But since you asked, since both teams last lost in November . . .

NE (8-0) +6.1 offense, -6.3 defense adjustment = +12.4 differential
PIT (8-0, not counting CLE game) +3.8 offense, -6.3 defense adjustment = +10.1 differential

Having Brady would definitely move the needle more than PIT without Ben.
NE averaged 20.3 ppg in 4 games without Brady and 30.3 ppg with Brady playing.
PIT averaged  21.5 ppg in 2 games without Ben and 25.5 ppg with him playing.

 

[[icon]]

I'm thinking the Steelers will need 9 or 10 FG's this week to keep it close.

lol

 

[Godsbrother]

I did not go and re-calibrate based on whether Ben or Brady played (so likely less accurate without doing that). But since you asked, since both teams last lost in November . . .

NE (8-0) +6.1 offense, -6.3 defense adjustment = +12.4 differential
PIT (8-0, not counting CLE game) +3.8 offense, -6.3 defense adjustment = +10.1 differential

Having Brady would definitely move the needle more than PIT without Ben.
NE averaged 20.3 ppg in 4 games without Brady and 30.3 ppg with Brady playing.
PIT averaged  21.5 ppg in 2 games without Ben and 25.5 ppg with him playing.

Not arguing against your stats but I think a couple of games is too small of a sample to support this argument.   I think Landry Jones is as big of a drop off from Ben as Garoppolo is from Brady.    Jones isn't very good.

 

[Godsbrother]

I'm thinking the Steelers will need 9 or 10 FG's this week to keep it close.

Whatever it takes  

 

[Anarchy99]

Not arguing against your stats but I think a couple of games is too small of a sample to support this argument.   I think Landry Jones is as big of a drop off from Ben as Garoppolo is from Brady.    Jones isn't very good.

My comments on the QB's were with regard strictly to running the performance numbers from the games played this year. The numbers without Brady are greatly skewed from the game they got shut out at home with Brissett playing with ligament damage in his thumb. 

In real life at this point in time, NEP would most fare better than any of the other three remaining teams would the starting QB go down. 

 

[Anarchy99]

Whatever it takes  

I was thinking 15 safeties or 12 safeties and 3 defensive extra point returns. 

 

[Niles Standish]

I did not go and re-calibrate based on whether Ben or Brady played (so likely less accurate without doing that). But since you asked, since both teams last lost in November . . .

NE (8-0) +6.1 offense, -6.3 defense adjustment = +12.4 differential
PIT (8-0, not counting CLE game) +3.8 offense, -6.3 defense adjustment = +10.1 differential

Having Brady would definitely move the needle more than PIT without Ben.
NE averaged 20.3 ppg in 4 games without Brady and 30.3 ppg with Brady playing.
PIT averaged  21.5 ppg in 2 games without Ben and 25.5 ppg with him playing.

Great thanks for the update.  Interesting to see that the defenses are basically identical in the 2nd half of the season.  Based on points I'd have assumed the Pats were quite a bit better on that side in the 2nd half since that's where they started looking like a very good defense.

 

[Bossman]

I was thinking 15 safeties or 12 safeties and 3 defensive extra point returns. 

either way, that might be a new record for safeties in one game. Someone should look it up.

... but hey, they broke the FG record last week so it seems anything is possible for this 2016 PIT team.

I for one say let the magical dream season continue. (TD's are so over-rated)

 

[Anarchy99]

Great thanks for the update.  Interesting to see that the defenses are basically identical in the 2nd half of the season.  Based on points I'd have assumed the Pats were quite a bit better on that side in the 2nd half since that's where they started looking like a very good defense.

New England played some real bottom feeders in terms of weak offenses in the early part of their winning streak. NYJ x2, SF, LAR is not exactly heavy lifting. 

If I have time, I will re-run the PIT/NE numbers filtering out the games where the QBs sat. 

 

[kyoun1e]

I think a key question for the PIT defense is this: Can there corners match up one on one?

HOU's corners Joseph and Bouye are damn good and they matched up at times one on one. If you have two guys that can play that kind of cover corner, it obviously helps what you do up front.

Can PIT do this? 

DO they do this? From what I recall, PIT relies heavily on zone (which Brady tends to shred).

 

[Steelers4Life]

I still don't grasp how the Patriots-didn't-face-a-decent-QB narrative can be used by Steelers fans, yet the Steelers-didn't-face-a-decent-QB counterargument gets literally swept under the rug. Here is the list of the two teams and the QBs they faced with year end rankings from PFF.

NE

SEA - Wilson (6)
ARI - Palmer (14)
CIN - Dalton (17)
MIA - Tannehill (18)
BUF - Taylor (20)
BUF - Taylor (20)
BAL - Flacco (23)
DEN - Siemian (27)
SFO - Kaepernick (29)
LAR - Goff (30)
NYJ - Fitzgerald (31)
NYJ - Fitzgerald (31)
HOU - Osweiler (32)
HOU - Osweilwer (32)
PIT - Landry (NR)
MIA - Moore (NR)
CLE - Whitehurst (NR)

PIT

NEP - Brady (1)
DAL - Prescott (12)
WAS - Cousins (13)
CIN - Dalton (17)
CIN - Dalton (17)
MIA - Tannenhill (18)
BUF - Taylor (20)
KCC - Smith (21)
KCC - Smith (21)
PHI - Wentz (22)
BAL - Flacco (23)
BAL - Flacco (23)
NYG - Manning (24)
CLE - Kessler (28)
NYJ - Fitzgerald (31)
MIA - Moore (NR)
CLE - Griffin (NR)
IND - Tolzien (NR)

So the argument that the NE defense won't be able to slow down the Steelers offense certainly seems like that it should be applied going the other way.

The point was never that the Steelers played a great set of QBs.  Nobody ever said they did.  In fact, I said BOTH defenses will likely have a hard time stopping BOTH offenses.  Neither defense is anything special at all.  The Patriots always figure out ways to move the ball, and the Steelers finally get the Patriots with their key players healthy.  My guess is that the Patriots key on Bell more than Brown, but every team has tried to do that.  Hasn't worked yet.

The point was that a lot of Pats fans use were using numbers from the regular season to support how good their defense is, but their defensive numbers and rankings have more to do with the QBs they played, not a high talent level.  Steelers fans haven't been making that same argument.

And by the way, if you stack rank both lists, 5 of the top 8 were opponents of the Steelers, and the Patriots played twice as many games (8) vs QBs ranked 30 or NR as the Steelers did (4).  The Steelers also played 13 games against QBs ranked 24 or better, while the Patriots only played 7.  The Steelers faced more good and solid QBs and fewer bad ones. 

Any way you cut it, the Steelers didn't face a ton of great QB play this year, but the Patriots faced even less.  

 

[Anarchy99]

Great thanks for the update.  Interesting to see that the defenses are basically identical in the 2nd half of the season.  Based on points I'd have assumed the Pats were quite a bit better on that side in the 2nd half since that's where they started looking like a very good defense.

Recalculating to account for Brady and Ben missing time, the Patriots go from +5.4 to +7.8 on offense.
PIT goes from +3.0 to +4.1 on offense.

PIT OFF: 25.3 ppg scored + -5.4 adjusted NE points allowed = 19.9 points
NE DEF: 15.6 ppg allowed + 4.1 adjusted PIT points scored = 19.7 points

Average of the two . . . the Steelers score 19.8 points (call it 20).

NE OFF: 30.3 ppg scored + -3.0 adjusted PIT points allowed = 27.3 points
PIT DEF: 20.4 ppg allowed + +7.8 adjusted NE points scored = 28.2 points

Average of the two . . . the Patriots score 27.8 points (call it 28).

Based on season long numbers and NE playing at home, this model would call for a 31-20 NE win this week. People can flame away all they want. It's just one compaitive model based on actual outcomes. Actual mileage may vary.

 

[Anarchy99]

The point was never that the Steelers played a great set of QBs.  Nobody ever said they did.  In fact, I said BOTH defenses will likely have a hard time stopping BOTH offenses.  Neither defense is anything special at all.  The Patriots always figure out ways to move the ball, and the Steelers finally get the Patriots with their key players healthy.  My guess is that the Patriots key on Bell more than Brown, but every team has tried to do that.  Hasn't worked yet.

The point was that a lot of Pats fans use were using numbers from the regular season to support how good their defense is, but their defensive numbers and rankings have more to do with the QBs they played, not a high talent level.  Steelers fans haven't been making that same argument.

And by the way, if you stack rank both lists, 5 of the top 8 were opponents of the Steelers, and the Patriots played twice as many games (8) vs QBs ranked 30 or NR as the Steelers did (4).  The Steelers also played 13 games against QBs ranked 24 or better, while the Patriots only played 7.  The Steelers faced more good and solid QBs and fewer bad ones. 

Any way you cut it, the Steelers didn't face a ton of great QB play this year, but the Patriots faced even less.  

I see it that the Patriots faced 6 Top 20 QBs and the Steelers faced 7 Top 20 QBs. The rest of them for both teams is pretty much a hot mess.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Yep, cancel the game no chance.  But yet Ben has had some really good road playoff games.   Maybe the Steelers should show up and see what happens.

Sarcasm aside, all one has to do is look at Ben's home/road splits this season to see that he isn't nearly the QB on the road that he is at home.  They will need him to change that trend and play like he usually does at home. 

 

[NE_REVIVAL]

You read a lot into what I said, that's for sure!

To be clear, I don't think the Patriots necessarily have to play poorly for the Steelers to beat them.  These Steelers can beat the Patriots even if both teams play well.  The Steelers "A" game might very well be just as good as the Patriots "A" game going into this week, a fact that seems to be lost on any Pats fans who cite only meaningless regular season statistics as evidence.  Those statistics for BOTH teams on BOTH sides of the ball are based just as much on their schedules as they are their talent, and both teams are far different now than they were earlier in the season.

My statement was simple.  This isn't a very good Pats defense.  I meant it.  I didn't mean or intend to say anything positive or negative about the Steelers defense and I certainly wasn't implying anything, either.  It was in response to someone citing awesome defensive stats for the Patriots that were more of a function of poor offenses they faced than anything else.

The difference between their schedules is negligible, but it does appear that the Steelers faced a few more quality opponents and QBs along the way.  (Dallas, Kansas City, the Eagles when Wentz was rolling, the late-season Giants)  The biggest difference is that Pats fans seem to be keen on using regular season stats to back up how good and efficient they are.  I don't see many Steelers fans doing that at all.  Why?  The Steelers are playing at a much higher level now on both sides of the ball than they were in the first half, and those stats for both teams are pretty meaningless.  What matters is how they match up now against each other, and I don't think the Patriots' edge on offense is any bigger than the Steelers' one.  The offenses don't face each other.  Coaching, well that's another issue and one I'm admittedly concerned about, because I want to see how Butler attacked Brady and their short passing game.

It's all good... been around here far too long to take anything personally even if I post about 5% as much as I used to!

 
You know I tried about as nicely as I could to let u off the hook and rather than take me up on it (IE, can't even admit what u said was at best poorly worded and at worst very very silly) the best you can come back with is "You read a lot into what I said, that's for sure!" 
 
Sure, but there is a difference between reading into something and quoting you verbatim which is what I did. Go ahead and re-post what u said and try (without changing or adding words) and see if it is possible to explain how it means something other than exactly how i read it. Key point being you don't get to change or add words.
 
You say your statement is simple, but I disagree, your statements are anything but simple.
 
You keep saying "This isn't a very good Pats defense" and blame pats fans for bringing up meaningless and flimsy reg season statistics like fewest points allowed, top 3 rushing def etc, rather than paying more attention to the really important stats like how the steeler def did against a rookie, the giants and a hot carson wentz.
 
On the one hand you claim you certainly aren't implying anything about how good or bad Pitts def is and in the next paragraph your touting how much tougher the steeler schedule was. So the regular season stats don't matter except when the steelers played the mighty eagles and giants.
 
Question, do u feel the steelers have a very good defense? Yes or No?
 
Somehow, you believe that the steelers playing better in the 2nd half is very meaningful while simultaneously pretending that NE playing better in the second half doesn't mean anything. I get that bell and brown are awesome and they represent a supreme challenge. But it is obvious you don't really know much at all about NEs def. For instance, did you know that the "not very good" NE hasn't given up a rushing td since October? Im pretty sure ya didn't and im pretty sure you will discount it as just another meaningless statistic.......
 
Yes its all good, im a little surprised you didn't take me up on the easy out but im not the one with the indefensible positions. 
 
Oh and stop with "the pats fans made me do it" stuff. If there is a post you want to reply then reply to it don't just say well pats fans r saying this so i need to say that.

 

[fred_1_15301]

I think a key question for the PIT defense is this: Can there corners match up one on one?

HOU's corners Joseph and Bouye are damn good and they matched up at times one on one. If you have two guys that can play that kind of cover corner, it obviously helps what you do up front.

Can PIT do this? 

DO they do this? From what I recall, PIT relies heavily on zone (which Brady tends to shred).

If the Steelers can get consistent pressure on Brady, their corners will look fine.  For as good as Houston's corners are, how many deep passes did Brady complete (mostly due to the corners being completely out of position or mistiming the jump).  Pittsburgh has been getting a lot of pressure on the QB the 2nd half of the season.  Their linebackers are playing at a very high level right now.  Also, the steelers really haven't given up too many big plays this year.  But I could see the dink and dunk strategy working against them.

 

[Anarchy99]

Just curious for the Steelers contingent. Which would you rather have:

GROUP ONE: Big Ben, Bell, Brown, and the current above average defense

- OR -

GROUP TWO: Big Ben, Parker, Ward, and the #1 ranked, lock down defense of that era

 

[kyoun1e]

http://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/128687/can-killer-bs-buck-trend-of-brady-dominance-over-steelers

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Just curious for the Steelers contingent. Which would you rather have:

GROUP ONE: Big Ben, Bell, Brown, and the current above average defense

- OR -

GROUP TWO: Big Ben, Parker, Ward, and the #1 ranked, lock down defense of that era

For this week's single game against the Pats, or overall / in general? Because IMO the answers might be different. As great as those defenses were, they didn't really match up well against Brady. For this week, I'll take the greater firepower on offense trying to win a shootout. Overall, those defenses were just naaaaaasty.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

I think Brady has lost like 1 Playoff game to a non-Manning QB.  Ain't happening 

 

[Bayhawks]

I think Brady has lost like 1 Playoff game to a non-Manning QB.  Ain't happening 

Jake Plummer, Mark Sanchez, Joe Flacco (twice).

 

[Baloney Sandwich]

Charlie Brown wears Steeler's colors...coincident?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=055wFyO6gag

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

I dunno, Hitler wore Falcons colors.

 

[Jake22]

Diehard Steeler fan here...

some good discussion in this thread, but you guys are over thinking this game.

I hate to say it but Brady has owned the Steelers, with or without taping their practices...

just as the sun rises in the east and sets in the west, and the sky is blue...

I see a good game but Patriots win by 8.

 

[Steelers4Life]

 
You know I tried about as nicely as I could to let u off the hook and rather than take me up on it (IE, can't even admit what u said was at best poorly worded and at worst very very silly) the best you can come back with is "You read a lot into what I said, that's for sure!" 
 
Sure, but there is a difference between reading into something and quoting you verbatim which is what I did. Go ahead and re-post what u said and try (without changing or adding words) and see if it is possible to explain how it means something other than exactly how i read it. Key point being you don't get to change or add words.
 
You say your statement is simple, but I disagree, your statements are anything but simple.
 
You keep saying "This isn't a very good Pats defense" and blame pats fans for bringing up meaningless and flimsy reg season statistics like fewest points allowed, top 3 rushing def etc, rather than paying more attention to the really important stats like how the steeler def did against a rookie, the giants and a hot carson wentz.
 
On the one hand you claim you certainly aren't implying anything about how good or bad Pitts def is and in the next paragraph your touting how much tougher the steeler schedule was. So the regular season stats don't matter except when the steelers played the mighty eagles and giants.
 
Question, do u feel the steelers have a very good defense? Yes or No?
 
Somehow, you believe that the steelers playing better in the 2nd half is very meaningful while simultaneously pretending that NE playing better in the second half doesn't mean anything. I get that bell and brown are awesome and they represent a supreme challenge. But it is obvious you don't really know much at all about NEs def. For instance, did you know that the "not very good" NE hasn't given up a rushing td since October? Im pretty sure ya didn't and im pretty sure you will discount it as just another meaningless statistic.......
 
Yes its all good, im a little surprised you didn't take me up on the easy out but im not the one with the indefensible positions. 
 
Oh and stop with "the pats fans made me do it" stuff. If there is a post you want to reply then reply to it don't just say well pats fans r saying this so i need to say that.

When you assume I mean something when I said nothing like it, then yes, that's reading into what I said.  Go ahead, quote me.  I said the Steelers don't need their A game to beat the Pats, and they don't.  The Patriots aren't so strong right now that only a supreme effort can beat them, and it's not like the only way they can lose is if they play poorly.  I said the Pats don't have a great defense, and in my opinion, they don't.  Very good coaching, great scheme, and plenty of ability to execute.  If you want to assume that means something more, be my guest, because I never even mentioned anything about the Steelers defense in comparison. 

I didn't tout how much tougher the Steelers schedule was.  I said neither was tough, but the Steelers appeared slightly tougher based on the QBs they faced.  Not that it matters in the least bit come Sunday.  What matters is how they match up against each other, this week.   

No, I don't believe the Steelers have a very good defense.  As I've said a few times now, I think the Steelers and Patriots defenses are both at a disadvantage against the others' offense.  I don't know which difference is greater, either.

Saying the Steelers are playing better in the 2nd half isn't a stretch.  They were 4-5 before winning their last 8.  That's not exactly a difficult conclusion to come to.

Patriots fans were touting their defense, Steelers fans weren't.  Based on what?  Regular season numbers that mean nothing.  Neither team has a very good defense, and both teams have very strong offenses.  Sorry if you didn't like my response to it, and frankly, I don't care if you agree with it. 

 

[Godsbrother]

Sarcasm aside, all one has to do is look at Ben's home/road splits this season to see that he isn't nearly the QB on the road that he is at home.  They will need him to change that trend and play like he usually does at home. 

Agreed.

 

[NE_REVIVAL]

When you assume I mean something when I said nothing like it, then yes, that's reading into what I said.  Go ahead, quote me. 

Said nothing like it?

Ok here are some quotes of things you said (not necessarily in order):

You start with the claim that regular season stats don't matter - Can we please stop pretending that regular season stats matter at all this week 

Then claim a few games pitt played mean something - The difference between their schedules is negligible, but it does appear that the Steelers faced a few more quality opponents and QBs along the way.  (Dallas, Kansas City, the Eagles when Wentz was rolling, the late-season Giants)

More Pitt regular season matters - And by the way, if you stack rank both lists, 5 of the top 8 were opponents of the Steelers, and the Patriots played .........  The Steelers faced more good and solid QBs and fewer bad ones.

Now ALL the games in the 2nd half were meaningful for Pitt - The Steelers are playing at a much higher level now on both sides of the ball than they were in the first half

Again emphasize how important the 2nd half of reg season was for pitt - Saying the Steelers are playing better in the 2nd half isn't a stretch.  They were 4-5 before winning their last 8.  That's not exactly a difficult conclusion to come to.
 

Here u go back to the reg season doesn't matter - This isn't a very good Patriots defense 

Here you assert Pitt doesn't even need their best game to win - The Steelers don't need to have their "A" game to win (there was no qualification on this assertion)

Im not wasting anymore time on this nonsense with you. Ive been doing this a long time and suggest u learn to concede a point once in awhile and bring your "A" game next time

 

[fred_1_15301]

It's starting to get testy in here.

 

[NE_REVIVAL]

It's starting to get testy in here.

 

[Steeler]

I see it that the Patriots faced 6 Top 20 QBs and the Steelers faced 7 Top 20 QBs. The rest of them for both teams is pretty much a hot mess.

They all played top 32 QBs - this is a joke, not mention to be taken literally.  Especially since NE played L. Jones

 

[Steelers4Life]

Said nothing like it?

Ok here are some quotes of things you said (not necessarily in order):

You start with the claim that regular season stats don't matter - Can we please stop pretending that regular season stats matter at all this week 

Then claim a few games pitt played mean something - The difference between their schedules is negligible, but it does appear that the Steelers faced a few more quality opponents and QBs along the way.  (Dallas, Kansas City, the Eagles when Wentz was rolling, the late-season Giants)

More Pitt regular season matters - And by the way, if you stack rank both lists, 5 of the top 8 were opponents of the Steelers, and the Patriots played .........  The Steelers faced more good and solid QBs and fewer bad ones.

Now ALL the games in the 2nd half were meaningful for Pitt - The Steelers are playing at a much higher level now on both sides of the ball than they were in the first half

Again emphasize how important the 2nd half of reg season was for pitt - Saying the Steelers are playing better in the 2nd half isn't a stretch.  They were 4-5 before winning their last 8.  That's not exactly a difficult conclusion to come to.
 

Here u go back to the reg season doesn't matter - This isn't a very good Patriots defense 

Here you assert Pitt doesn't even need their best game to win - The Steelers don't need to have their "A" game to win (there was no qualification on this assertion)

Im not wasting anymore time on this nonsense with you. Ive been doing this a long time and suggest u learn to concede a point once in awhile and bring your "A" game next time

Wow.  You might look at the context of when I said that stuff, who I was responded to, and why it was said.  You're right... there's a lot of nonsense coming from one of us.  But it's not me.  Nothing I said was to pump up the importance of any regular season meaningless statistics.  All that matters is how they matchup against each other right now and how either team performed against relatively weak schedules shows nothing.

Stack ranking those lists was in response to Anarchy's post, and it's true, but it makes little difference what QBs either team faced when they're both facing the best QB they've faced all year, this week.  Patriots fan(s) were touting their defense and citing these regular season status accumulated against almost exclusively crappy QBs.  I listed those QBs, Anarchy responded with a list of who the Steelers faced, but I had never said the Steelers faced great QBs either.  All I said is that it's foolish to pump up the Patriots defense because they so many low level QBs this year.  Nobody was saying anything about the Steelers defense but somehow that's what it turned into.

The Steelers DON'T need their A game to win and it's foolish to think the only way the Patriots lose is if they play poorly.  Maybe both teams have their A game and the Steelers win.  Or maybe both teams have their B games and the Steelers win.  The Patriots defense may be good, maybe it's not.  Same with the Steelers defense.  It's true that the Steelers likely faced a slightly more difficult schedule this year as far as both opponents and QBs are concerned, but again, that makes no difference now.  And saying that the Steelers finished 8-0 after starting 4-5 isn't saying anything about regular season statistics, it just shows how pointless regular season stats are.  Teams change.  Some get better, some get worse.

So many Patriot fans think their team is unfairly criticized and persecuted that's it's been difficult to get into a real debate with a lot of them on this board for a long time.

This game is going to come down to a few things to me, and none of them have anything to do with regular season rankings.

1. Whether or not Ben has a good game on the road.

2, Whether or not the Steelers can make in-game adjustments to whatever the Patriots throw at them on both sides of the ball.

3. Whether or not the Patriots figure out a way to slow down Bell.  I imagine the Steelers should stick what's working with Bell dominating touches and keeping Brady on the sideline.  Can they slow down Bell and contain Brown?  Will one of them bust out?  Will both?  Both had good games with Landry Jones under center, so I imagine what they'll face on Sunday will be something different.

4. Will Butler have a better game plan to stop Brady's short passing game than **** LeBeau ever did?

 

[Bossman]

This reminds me a bit of when the Jets came to Foxboro for a playoff game in 2010 (Jan 2011).

Pats were rolling over teams to end the season (including week 13 vs the Jets 45-3 on MNF) 

Playoffs: Jets came in and beat the snot out of Brady. Final score was 28-21 Jets ... but a late NE TD made it seem closer than it was.

Steelers will need to generate the same type of pressure on Brady to have a chance. It has been done.

 

[[icon]]

Of course there's a chance... a pretty damn good one. Anyone thinking this game is anything resembling a lock one way or another is choking on hometown D.  It could be a blowout one way or the other... but it probably wont be. Very much looking forward to this game.  

Hey @Evilgrin 72 @Evilgrin72 (Which is you?).... meet somewhere in the middle with two handles of whiskey, an 8-ball, and a 65" Flatscreen? 
 

 

[Coeur de Lion]

It's starting to get testy in here.

Yeah, and the semantic arguments over who said what a few pages ago instead of actually talking about the game are just greaaaaaat. [/sarcasm]

 

[Boston]

This reminds me a bit of when the Jets came to Foxboro for a playoff game in 2010 (Jan 2011).

Pats were rolling over teams to end the season (including week 13 vs the Jets 45-3 on MNF) 

Playoffs: Jets came in and beat the snot out of Brady. Final score was 28-21 Jets ... but a late NE TD made it seem closer than it was.

Steelers will need to generate the same type of pressure on Brady to have a chance. It has been done.

That game pretty much happened last week...fortunately for the Pats the opponent was not good enough to beat them...hopefully that is their mulligan for the playoffs...

 

[Anarchy99]

That game pretty much happened last week...fortunately for the Pats the opponent was not good enough to beat them...hopefully that is their mulligan for the playoffs...

This pretty much is the narrative I have seen about the HOU game. New England didn't play their usual smart, clean game. The offense didn't really get on track for pretty much the whole game. The Texans scored 4 times (3 FG and a TD). I believe all of the HOU points came directly from Patriots miscues (points off two INT's, the fumbled kickoff, and the 15-yard penalty for pulling someone out of the pile when that drive was stopped).

Blend all that together and the defense played pretty well (when you cough the ball up in your own red zone, it's hard to blame the defense for allowing points). The stat sheet didn't show a great performance by anyone except maybe Lewis, but even he had two fumbles. However, NE still scored 34 points against the league's (allegedly) #1 defense and had the biggest margin of victory out of the 4 games last weekend.

I get that people are saying that game was their mulligan, but NE is going to win a lot of games when they score 34 points. SInce TB became their QB, NE has only allowed 35 points in a home game 5 times in 147 games (3%). Ben has led the Steelers to 35 or more points 10 times in 103 road games (10%). Understandably, that and a box of donuts will give you indigestion, but sight unseen, NE should be happy to be given 34 points against PIT and not even hear how the game actually went.

As for the "A game" stuff being bandied about, it's possible neither team plays well, the QB's struggle, and the game becomes more of a field position / turnover battle. IMO, it will be a lot harder for the Steelers to win if they don't match or better what NE does. I doubt Pittsburgh wins with a "C game" effort vs. a "B game" for NE. The Patriots probably have a little more wriggle room, so they might still be able to win a squeaker with a "B game" effort vs. a Steelers "A game." Personally, I don't believe in any game both teams can play an "A game," as that would mean there were breakdowns somewhere else. For example, if both PIT and NE went off offensively and scored in the 40's, that would not be an "A level" game for either defense. 

 

[Boston]

This pretty much is the narrative I have seen about the HOU game. New England didn't play their usual smart, clean game. The offense didn't really get on track for pretty much the whole game. The Texans scored 4 times (3 FG and a TD). I believe all of the HOU points came directly from Patriots miscues (points off two INT's, the fumbled kickoff, and the 15-yard penalty for pulling someone out of the pile when that drive was stopped).

Blend all that together and the defense played pretty well (when you cough the ball up in your own red zone, it's hard to blame the defense for allowing points). The stat sheet didn't show a great performance by anyone except maybe Lewis, but even he had two fumbles. However, NE still scored 34 points against the league's (allegedly) #1 defense and had the biggest margin of victory out of the 4 games last weekend.

I get that people are saying that game was their mulligan, but NE is going to win a lot of games when they score 34 points. SInce TB became their QB, NE has only allowed 35 points in a home game 5 times in 147 games (3%). Ben has led the Steelers to 35 or more points 10 times in 103 road games (10%). Understandably, that and a box of donuts will give you indigestion, but sight unseen, NE should be happy to be given 34 points against PIT and not even hear how the game actually went.

As for the "A game" stuff being bandied about, it's possible neither team plays well, the QB's struggle, and the game becomes more of a field position / turnover battle. IMO, it will be a lot harder for the Steelers to win if they don't match or better what NE does. I doubt Pittsburgh wins with a "C game" effort vs. a "B game" for NE. The Patriots probably have a little more wriggle room, so they might still be able to win a squeaker with a "B game" effort vs. a Steelers "A game." Personally, I don't believe in any game both teams can play an "A game," as that would mean there were breakdowns somewhere else. For example, if both PIT and NE went off offensively and scored in the 40's, that would not be an "A level" game for either defense. 

I know I am keeping it basic (and have already said it before) but the playoff games the Pats lose all look the same...on offense it is Brady not getting protected well/questionable play-calling/turnovers and on D it's not being able to harass the QB which allows him to make back-breaking completions...now that is not unusual for any team to lose in those scenarios but with the Pats they just don't lose if they protect Brady reasonably well and don't allow the opposing QB to have a sandwich before he throws...I am very thankful for playing the Texans last week...Clowney and Mercilus were a hand-full and Romeo knows the Pats as well as anyone...that D was far better than I gave them credit for going into the game (especially the corners)...I think that was a very nice wake-up call that they were able to escape because Osweiler was just not capable of beating the Pats in Foxboro...  

 

[steelers1080]

The biggest playmakers for this game will probably be surprising. Both teams are great at shutting down the #1 options. For the Steelers Jesse James and Eli Rogers will need to show up big, and for the Pats it'll probably be Hogan and Blount who have big games.  The Steelers did a pretty good job at taking Kelce and Tyreek away last week, but BB knows to just have other pieces step up.

 

[Blick]

It's starting to get testy in here.

 

[pats3in4]

One of the most glossed over stories is how well the Pats offense has been playing without Gronk.  The narrative of how much Gronk means to this offense goes something like:

- 2011: Gronk gets taken out by Bernard Pollard in the AFCCG and was effectively a decoy in SB46 and not much of a good one.  Pats offense went long stretches in the 2nd half doing nothing and ended up putting up a paltry 17pts against the Giants.  Pats fans are left to wonder how that game turns out differently with a healthy Gronk.

- 2012: Gronk breaks his arm against Houston in the divisional round and the Pats offense struggles mightily at home against Baltimore the following week without him.  Again, Pats fans are left wondering what could have been with a healthy Gronk.

- 2013: Gronk gets kneecapped by TJ Ward (then with Cleveland) late in the season and the offense never looks the same.  After running the ball down Indy's throats in the divisional round, the Pats offense looks meek against a good D in Denver.  Pats fans still left wondering what an AFCCG or SB would look like with a healthy Gronk.

- 2014: Pats fans get that answer.  Gronk is healthy to finish the season and it shows as he makes some huge plays against Seattle in SB49.

- 2015: Gronk misses the last several games of the regular season (along with Edelman).  Pats offense goes into the tank in the final two games against the Jets and Dolphins, costing them HFA.  Gronk returns for the playoffs, plays a big role in the win over KC in the divisional round and is pretty much the Pats' only offense in Denver.   Pats fans are left wondering how that game would have turned out if played in Foxboro.

When Gronk went down this year, some sites started pulling up Brady's QB rating and other stats comparing Brady with and without Gronk and the contrast was unsurprisingly stark.  The Pats offense goes from "one of the best ever" to "very good" when Gronk is removed, but very good offenses often get shut down by very good defenses in the playoffs.  It looked like Gronk is not just a difference maker, but also a title maker.

So what is different this year?  I'll put my thoughts on this in my next post to avoid this one getting too long (forum: "too late!").

 

[Anarchy99]

The short answer is NE won't miss Gronk until they do. It remains to be seen if the Pats will have a game where the offense struggles to a point where they absolutely positively have to have a big play and they don't have him. 

But they have reached a point in the season where only the big boys are still playing and they can't go on cruise control to win. 

The Pats are a good team with great coaches and a great team dynamic. Clearly they are not a team that can just turn on auto pilot and win. They aren't leaps and bounds better than other teams, and if they don't play well they aren't going to win. 

 

[Baloney Sandwich]

41-24 Pat's...you can't spot these #######s a day and a half and hope to beat them at home 

 

[kyoun1e]

If the Steelers can get consistent pressure on Brady, their corners will look fine.  For as good as Houston's corners are, how many deep passes did Brady complete (mostly due to the corners being completely out of position or mistiming the jump).  Pittsburgh has been getting a lot of pressure on the QB the 2nd half of the season.  Their linebackers are playing at a very high level right now.  Also, the steelers really haven't given up too many big plays this year.  But I could see the dink and dunk strategy working against them.

I did not get the impression that their corners blew many plays. In fact, watching the game every time one of those long passes were complete I was surprised. It's not their bread n butter. It's not what they want to do. It makes them uncomfortable.

Maybe PIT is getting more pressure, but how are they doing it and is it any different than what they've done in the past?

If what PIT is doing on defense is more or less the same scheme as it has been, I think NE has the advantage.

 

[fred_1_15301]

I did not get the impression that their corners blew many plays. In fact, watching the game every time one of those long passes were complete I was surprised. It's not their bread n butter. It's not what they want to do. It makes them uncomfortable.

Maybe PIT is getting more pressure, but how are they doing it and is it any different than what they've done in the past?

If what PIT is doing on defense is more or less the same scheme as it has been, I think NE has the advantage.

Agreed.  Most of the pressure of late has been coming from the outside with Harrison and Dupree leading the surge.  They'll need to give the Patriots some different looks or they'll get shredded (as they usually do against the Pats).