AFCCG: Steelers at Patriots Discussion (1 Viewer)

[Steeler]

Results from all NE home games with Brady playing and Gronk NOT playing:
11-2 record, 32.2 ppg PF, +12.8 ppg margin of victory

So the Pats  are better off without Gronk?

 

[Anarchy99]

Big Ben over his career vs. Top 3 Defenses in Points Allowed (Top 4 if Pittsburgh was in the Top 3)

Overall: 16-13, 31 TD, 36 INT, 76.6 QB rating
On the road only: 6-9, 13 TD, 19 INT, 74.7 QB rating

 

[Anarchy99]

So the Pats  are better off without Gronk?

Clearly not. But that is the situation they find themselves in currently.I mentioned earlier that they won't miss Gronk until they miss Gronk, which essentially I think is still true.One would think there will be a time where they absolutely need him and he won't be there. But most of the time, they have adjusted and made do without him.

 

[NE_REVIVAL]

Yup great strategy actually.  Plant that "us against the world" mentality.  Belichick has that mastered.  

Yes BB uses the us against the world stuff all the time, but NEVER gives his team any excuses when doing that. no biggy, i know what ur saying and it probably helps them more than it hurts but im telling you it is likely something BB would never do because he would be giving his team an excuse and he is very much about no excuses. 

 

[NE_REVIVAL]

What also gets lost in the "what playoff teams has ________ played" is that there are a lot of teams that were arguably as good or better than a couple of the teams that made the playoffs (at least as they were week 18.)  Steelers beat Baltimore, Cincinnati twice, Buffalo, Washington, and Indianapolis all on the road and all of those teams besides Cincy were .500 or better and most just barely missed the playoffs.  They also played that thriller against Dallas that they led with under a minute to go before blowing it.

This isn't to say anything vis-a-vis New England, just saying the Steelers didn't exactly have a cupcake schedule.  I think at one point I read it was the 3rd toughest in the NFL this year.  I think that was largely because aside from arguably the Jets game and the 2 games with Cleveland (one of which their key starters didn't even play,) there were really no "gimme" games on it.

In games they played this year with Ben, Bell, and Brown all active for 60 minutes, they're 10-2, with the only two losses being a 7-point defeat at Baltimore in Ben's first game back off the injury (a game in which he's always notoriously rusty) and the last-second loss to Dallas.  I think the Pats only have 1 loss since Brady returned, so that's even better, but it was against a slightly weaker schedule (NFC West vs. NFC East being the major factor there.)

Bottom line is that I don't think the "who did they beat?" discussion is a big factor either way.  Pretty much a wash as far as I'm concerned.

Totally agree, and thought we covered this pretty well but there are some who r late to the party. Neither team played a very difficult schedule and Pitts was likely slightly tuffer but not enuf to draw any sort of significant conclusions from.

 

[Godsbrother]

Big Ben over his career vs. Top 3 Defenses in Points Allowed (Top 4 if Pittsburgh was in the Top 3)

Overall: 16-13, 31 TD, 36 INT, 76.6 QB rating
On the road only: 6-9, 13 TD, 19 INT, 74.7 QB rating

The only stat that matters is the final score on Sunday night.

 

[Godsbrother]

Yes BB uses the us against the world stuff all the time, but NEVER gives his team any excuses when doing that. no biggy, i know what ur saying and it probably helps them more than it hurts but im telling you it is likely something BB would never do because he would be giving his team an excuse and he is very much about no excuses. 

I'm curious how you know what BB says in the locker room after the game.  You aren't the ball boy are you?

 

[kyoun1e]

I don't think it went over well with Tomlin either but the water under the bridge is out of the cat's bag now.  You can't go back and undo it.  

Per Brian Wilson / CBS Sports

Edelman comments on Antonio Brown locker room streem:

"That's how that team is run," Pats wideout Julian Edelman told WEEI on Monday. "I personally don't think that would be something that would happen in our locker room, but hey, whatever. Some people like red and some people like blue. Some people like tulips and some people like roses. Whatever."

and Brady:

"That's against our team policy. I don't think that would go over well with our coach."

Link: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/julian-edelman-on-antonio-brown-video-thats-how-that-team-is-run/

Love how the media is trying to run with this. Innocent comments.

The "whatever" comment says it all. As in, who the hell cares.

 

[NE_REVIVAL]

I'm curious how you know what BB says in the locker room after the game.  You aren't the ball boy are you?

Anyone who has followed him while he has been here (listened to his press confs etc) knows his mantra. Don't talk to him about excuses, he doesn't allow it. Im listening to a couple of turds on Pitt radio today and their talking about weird things always happening in foxboro and all I can say is what weird things r these 2 turds talking about? How about some specific examples instead of innuendo from teams like the steelers who are just sore fn losers. All im hearing from Pitt is how awesom they are, Bell/Brown/Ben are the 3 best players that ever walked the earth and there is no way to stop them. Nobody, NOBODY thinks Pitt is going to lose.... Well guess what, ur gonna fn lose and lose big and when u do im sure we will hear about how warm the gatorade was or there was no toilet paper in the locker room, maybe kordell can tell every1 again that the best team didn't win etc etc.

Pitt thinks they invented football toughness and they always think their the baddest team on the planet so when they get their asses kicked like they will this sunday they can't look in the mirror like men and instead they make excuses, whine and disparage NE; sooo sad, so tiresome.

For instance there is a nice clip of BB responding to Tomlins whining about the communications issues in 15. Communication issues happen in every stadium and the home team doesn't control them. As BB said, they prepare for communication issues and when it happens they r ready. But JV coaches like Tomlin aren't as prepared so they lose and then they whine.

Here ya go......

“I’ll just say, kind of tying this in with a couple of things from last week or earlier in the week. I just think, overall, it’s kind of sad, really, to see some stories written that obviously have an agenda to them with misinformation and anonymous-type comments,” Belichick said, via a transcript. “Writing about warm drinks and trash cans and stuff like that. It’s just a sad commentary, and it’s gone to a pretty low level. It’s sunk pretty deep. “First of all, I would say that I think our program here is built on competition and trying to improve every day, and trying to work hard. It’s not built on excuses. And we just try to go out and work and improve and find a way to get better. This organization has won of a lot of games, particularly in reference to the great teams from ’01, ’03 and ’04, and all the great players that played on those teams — Ty Law, (Lawyer) Malloy, Otis Smith, Rodney Harrison, (Tedy) Bruschi, (Larry) Izzo, (Willie) McGinest, (Mike) Vrabel, (Richard) Seymour, Matt Light, (Joe) Andruzzi, Steve Neal, (Deion) Branch, Troy Brown, (Tom) Brady, Antowain Smith, Kevin Faulk, Corey Dillon, Lonnie Paxton, (Adam) Vinatieri — to take away what those guys accomplished, what those teams accomplished, how good they were, how many great players we had, how well we played in big games, how they consistently showed up and made big plays and game-winning plays, it’s just not right. Those guys were great players. And many more. Those were a few of them — and great teams. So, I’m not going to get into a back-and-forth on it, but that’s the way I feel about it.”Read more at: http://nesn.com/2015/09/bill-belichick-sad-to-see-stories-that-obviously-have-an-agenda/

And in my next post (well not the next one, but soon) I will tell you how I really feel

 

[NE_REVIVAL]

Please take the above post in the spirit it was intended and that spirit is I dislike the steelers and their incessant excuses\whining\innuendo and never admitting they were beaten by a better team.

Other than that it is all good

Goin out for the night, but don't worry, ill be back for all the hugs n kisses I know im going to receive..

 

[ShamrockPride]

Please take the above post in the spirit it was intended and that spirit is I dislike the steelers and their incessant excuses\whining\innuendo and never admitting they were beaten by a better team.

Other than that it is all good

So let me get this straight....you listened to a Pitt based sports show that, idk this might seem a little crazy apparently, that talked up Pitt, and you got mad about it?

   

 

[Godsbrother]

Please take the above post in the spirit it was intended and that spirit is I dislike the steelers and their incessant excuses\whining\innuendo and never admitting they were beaten by a better team.

Other than that it is all good

Goin out for the night, but don't worry, ill be back for all the hugs n kisses I know im going to receive..

Pretty sure it was you that was whining about officials calls in the KC game.

Ill freely admit the Patriots have been the better team for most of the BB/Brady years.  What more do you want?

The problem with the Patriot fans is they're so sensitive about any criticism of their team or coach.  

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Pretty sure it was you that was whining about officials calls in the KC game.

Ill freely admit the Patriots have been the better team for most of the BB/Brady years.  What more do you want?

The problem with the Patriot fans is they're so sensitive about any criticism of their team or coach.  

I welcome all arguments, statistical or anecdotal, that support the narrative that the Patriots are clearly superior. It provides a situation in which if the Steelers lose, it was expected, but if they win, it's a huge upset. There's literally no better place for us as fans to be in going into the game. 

 

[simey]

All im hearing from Pitt is how awesom they are, Bell/Brown/Ben are the 3 best players that ever walked the earth and there is no way to stop them. Nobody, NOBODY thinks Pitt is going to lose.... Well guess what, ur gonna fn lose and lose big and when u do im sure we will hear about how warm the gatorade was or there was no toilet paper in the locker room, maybe kordell can tell every1 again that the best team didn't win etc etc.

Pitt thinks they invented football toughness and they always think their the baddest team on the planet so when they get their asses kicked like they will this sunday they can't look in the mirror like men and instead they make excuses, whine and disparage NE; sooo sad, so tiresome.

Go Steelers!!

 

[Anarchy99]

The Patriots have not trailed in a game since Week 12 . . . a streak of 362 minutes . . . and the longest streak in the NFL in 11 years. That's 6 games worth of game time.

 

[msommer]

Kansas City.  

Tennessee must be a great team then

 

[fred_1_15301]

Based on all the stats that Anarchy has provided, I'm not really sure why they're playing the game.  Can you provide a single stat that actually favors the Steelers?      

 

[Anarchy99]

Based on all the stats that Anarchy has provided, I'm not really sure why they're playing the game.  Can you provide a single stat that actually favors the Steelers?      

I would if I could find some. It's not for lack of trying to find things that favor the Steelers.

I did find a few.

- Big Ben has thrown 29 TDs to just 5 picks in night games over the past three seasons.
- In Football Outsiders (I think that's where I saw it) most recent defensive rankings, the Steelers had passed the Patriots. They used a weighted system based on more recent games over games earlier in the season. I am not sure if PIT playing an extra game impacted that at all.
- Don't remember where I saw it, but the Steelers defense ranked the highest over their win streak in terms of some defensive metric which I didn't fully hear or wasn't fully explained. Could have been fewest weighed yards per play adjusted to opponent. Again, I don't know where came from, but I thought they discussed it briefly on the radio.

I am on the fence about some of this stuff. Logically, what happened lately seems like it should be weighted more heavily than results from the past. However, the bigger the data set, the more accurate the results are likely to be (or more likely to repeat similar outcomes).

As for some of the banter that the Patriots haven't faced much competition or top tier QBs this year, I am going to guess that BB and his staff still know how to game plan and coach.They didn't forget overnight. That and they probably found new ways to abuse the rule book.

 

[Run It Up]

Inb4 Tomlin complains about their tablets not working and that BB hasnt used a tablet since week 4.

 

[fred_1_15301]

I would if I could find some. It's not for lack of trying to find things that favor the Steelers.

I did find a few.

- Big Ben has thrown 29 TDs to just 5 picks in night games over the past three seasons.
- In Football Outsiders (I think that's where I saw it) most recent defensive rankings, the Steelers had passed the Patriots. They used a weighted system based on more recent games over games earlier in the season. I am not sure if PIT playing an extra game impacted that at all.
- Don't remember where I saw it, but the Steelers defense ranked the highest over their win streak in terms of some defensive metric which I didn't fully hear or wasn't fully explained. Could have been fewest weighed yards per play adjusted to opponent. Again, I don't know where came from, but I thought they discussed it briefly on the radio.

I am on the fence about some of this stuff. Logically, what happened lately seems like it should be weighted more heavily than results from the past. However, the bigger the data set, the more accurate the results are likely to be (or more likely to repeat similar outcomes).

As for some of the banter that the Patriots haven't faced much competition or top tier QBs this year, I am going to guess that BB and his staff still know how to game plan and coach.They didn't forget overnight. That and they probably found new ways to abuse the rule book.

Ok just checking.  You're the stats guy.  It's looking bleak for the Steelers.

 

[Anarchy99]

Ok just checking.  You're the stats guy.  It's looking bleak for the Steelers.

Ten pages in and I am interested to see what PIT does differently. Clearly in the past whatever they tried didn't work. Compared to many years ago, I don't think this version of the PIT defense is as good. I suppose the triplets could have a huge game, but they seem inconsistent, even in the same game. They seemingly can score at will sometimes or Bell could run through a brick wall. But then several drives they don't look like the same team. IMO, if Ben starts chucking the ball all over the place and throws some picks, I am not sure the Steelers could overcome that. Like any other game, limit turnovers and your team stands a chance. And don't make really dumb mistakes or get flagged for senseless penalties. Oddly enough, I think PIT has a better chance playing more conservatively and not as aggressively. 

 

[fred_1_15301]

Ten pages in and I am interested to see what PIT does differently. Clearly in the past whatever they tried didn't work. Compared to many years ago, I don't think this version of the PIT defense is as good. I suppose the triplets could have a huge game, but they seem inconsistent, even in the same game. They seemingly can score at will sometimes or Bell could run through a brick wall. But then several drives they don't look like the same team. IMO, if Ben starts chucking the ball all over the place and throws some picks, I am not sure the Steelers could overcome that. Like any other game, limit turnovers and your team stands a chance. And don't make really dumb mistakes or get flagged for senseless penalties. Oddly enough, I think PIT has a better chance playing more conservatively and not as aggressively. 

I get your point that personnel and schemes may not change a whole lot but I'm still not a big fan of using the past to predict the future (especially the outcome of a single game).    I don't care if the Patriots won the last 100 games against the Steelers.  I still don't think that has a lot of bearing on what will happen Sunday night.  

You are spot on that turnovers will be the difference in this game.  The Patriots don't shoot themselves in the foot very often.  They never have.  The Steelers (primarily Ben) do turn the ball over mainly because of their aggressive style on offense.  They'll get big plays but they'll also make mistakes.  If the Patriots win the turnover battle, I just don't see how the Steelers can win this game.  Bottom line - Ben will take risks (as you said earlier that's in his DNA) and us Steelers fans just need to pray that those risks don't lead to any costly mistakes.  That will also take some luck......

I really don't know how to feel about the Steelers defense going into this game.  They have a lot of young, talented guys who are playing at a pretty high level right now.  How will translate against Brady and the Patriots offense?       It's probably in their best interest to change their scheme but at this point in the season, how much of that can you really do?  Go with what got you there.  

 

[Bossman]

Patriots defense can't get off the field on 3rd down.

They are notorious for giving up 3rd and long.

Go.

 

[Anarchy99]

That's where the Patriots are different. They play to take away their opponent's strengths and target the opponent's  weaknesses. They don't go with their own strengths if that clashes with their opponent's strengths. The possible exception is Gronk.  

 

[fred_1_15301]

That's where the Patriots are different. They play to take away their opponent's strengths and target the opponent's  weaknesses. They don't go with their own strengths if that clashes with their opponent's strengths. The possible exception is Gronk.  

Yeah but you have to have some pretty talented and smart players to get away with that.  Believe me, I hope the Steelers change their schemes a little but I just don't see anything major.  

 

[BigSteelThrill]

That's where the Patriots are different. They play to take away their opponent's strengths and target the opponent's  weaknesses. They don't go with their own strengths if that clashes with their opponent's strengths. The possible exception is Gronk.  

Seem to recall Gronk being the difference maker in that earlier game.

 

[Buffaloes]

the patriots are undefeated since the last time they lost a game. a streak that goes all the way back to last time the opposition outscored them

 

[AngryPatriot]

I like the Pats in this one, just too many weapons on offense from top to bottom. Steelers have their big 3 but not much beyond that- and the Pats have the edge on defense.

Pats 35-17. 

 

[fred_1_15301]

I like the Pats in this one, just too many weapons on offense from top to bottom. Steelers have their big 3 but not much beyond that- and the Pats have the edge on defense.

Pats 35-17. 

Are the Patriots weapons on offense really better than the Steelers weapons?  Not so sure about that.  

 

[KarmaPolice]

Are the Patriots weapons on offense really better than the Steelers weapons?  Not so sure about that.  

Better?  Nah.  Just more plentiful and they have a lot more ways they attack Ds. 

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Better?  Nah.  Just more plentiful and they have a lot more ways they attack Ds. 

You think for 60 minutes that Lewis + Blount + White give NE more ways to attack from the tailback spot then just Bell does? 

 

[Arodin]

Ten pages in and I am interested to see what PIT does differently. Clearly in the past whatever they tried didn't work. 

This is the part that worries me.  Tomlin just doesn't strike me as the kind of coach who can come up with and install anything new in a week.  To be fair to Tomlin (I'm one of the more negative toward him on this board), I think this has been part of the Steelers' philosophy for longer than he has been here:  line up and beat the opponent with what you do best.  But it makes them vulnerable to a coach who can radically cross up his schemes week by week.

 

[Baloney Sandwich]

These are the two best teams in the AFC and I can easily see either one winning. A few factors in the Patriots favor though, they are at home and as Tomlin talked about after the game they spotted NE some prep time. I also heard yesterday that more than a dozen Pitt players have had the flu this week. I think the wild card is the turnover battle, not sure either team can win if they lose it.  I lean Pat's if it is even but that is probably the homer in me.

Should be a great game though and hats off to whatever franchise advances to their 9th SB appearance. I think the winner will face the Falcons but no matter what we are set for a great SB. Whatever team holds the trophy in Houston will have earned it this year.

I have a good buddy that is a die hard Steelers fan, from West Virginia. Nice guy, salt of the earth type. A tad slow and it wouldn't shock me to learn he was slightly inbred. That seems like the typical MO for most of their fan base. Not bad people by any stretch, just slightly behind from an evolutionary standpoint.  

I can't wait for Sunday night.

 

[NE_REVIVAL]

So let me get this straight....you listened to a Pitt based sports show that, idk this might seem a little crazy apparently, that talked up Pitt, and you got mad about it?

   

Yes u r absolutely right and yes im really quite insane....

 

[NE_REVIVAL]

Pretty sure it was you that was whining about officials calls in the KC game.

Ill freely admit the Patriots have been the better team for most of the BB/Brady years.  What more do you want?

The problem with the Patriot fans is they're so sensitive about any criticism of their team or coach.  

Well wasn't whining about the KC call so much as just using it to tweak someone over emphasizing about the kc win. Yes some of us may appear overly sensitive, but i think that is because so much of it is bs and it never ever stops. Like the radio heads yesterday with their "things always happen in foxboro" bs; they say it and people repeat it even though there is little truth to it. Ive come to embrace the evil empire stuff, it comes with being dominant, but these people in the media who just make crap up constantly get under the skin a bit.

I know my post was way over the top, just needed to vent a little and im feeling much better now; thanks for listening....

 

[NE_REVIVAL]

Based on all the stats that Anarchy has provided, I'm not really sure why they're playing the game.  Can you provide a single stat that actually favors the Steelers?      

FB Live Streaming time?

 

[Bossman]

This is the part that worries me.  Tomlin just doesn't strike me as the kind of coach who can come up with and install anything new in a week.  To be fair to Tomlin (I'm one of the more negative toward him on this board), I think this has been part of the Steelers' philosophy for longer than he has been here:  line up and beat the opponent with what you do best.  But it makes them vulnerable to a coach who can radically cross up his schemes week by week.

Tomlin runs a tight ship over there. I like the fact that his players are very attentive when he has something to say in the locker room.

He's obviously earned their respect. Not sure you can say that about NE's coach.

 

[NE_REVIVAL]

This is the part that worries me.  Tomlin just doesn't strike me as the kind of coach who can come up with and install anything new in a week.  To be fair to Tomlin (I'm one of the more negative toward him on this board), I think this has been part of the Steelers' philosophy for longer than he has been here:  line up and beat the opponent with what you do best.  But it makes them vulnerable to a coach who can radically cross up his schemes week by week.

I agree, whether Tomlin or Cowher its always appeared  to me that the steelers tend to do what the steelers do and have been pretty successful at it. Im wondering how much they will take from the hou game.

 

[Bossman]

I agree, whether Tomlin or Cowher its always appeared  to me that the steelers tend to do what the steelers do and have been pretty successful at it. Im wondering how much they will take from the hou game.

Are you saying Tomlin is not much of an "X's and O's" guy?

Be careful what you say Terry.

 

[NE_REVIVAL]

Are you saying Tomlin is not much of an "X's and O's" guy?

Be careful what you say Terry.

Well, thats not what I meant with that post. I meant from my 20,000 foot view they appear to me to lineup and pretty much play the same defensive system game in and game out and that mo is no different under Tomlin than it was under Cowher.

 

[pecorino]

A lot of over-thinking going on in here. The Steelers will be trotting out Ross Cockrell and Mike Mitchell in the secondary. Those two massively weak links are all the Pats need to game plan a win. The Steelers don't have the personnel in the secondary and don't have enough creativity from the coaching staff to overcome this liability.

 

[Sabertooth]

Tennessee must be a great team then

Yeah the Packer were in quite a rut there for a while.  Maybe you haven't heard, been away a long time.  They don't shine shoes no more.  

 

[Thunderlips]

Turnovers, pressure on Brady, Big Ben breaking his trend of not playing that well on the road.  That's what will decide the game. 

If I'm the Steelers, I'm grinding it out on O....protecting Ben and keeping Brady off the field. BB likes to try to take away your most viable option....so look for Jesse James or another secondary cast member to have a nice day.  That being said, Brown and Bell are argubly the two best in the NFL at their respective positions....so just to assume that BB's going to do this effectively is kind of dumb and pays no respect to the talent of those players.  Both/Either of those guys could end up having monster games in a high scoring affair.

The Pats are the better team and are at home...so I think their path to victory has a couple of different routes.  They can roll big with LB and try to limit PIT's offensive chances....or they can dink and dunk with their Mighty Mites (Lewis/Edelman) and win a shootout.  If I'm PIT....I think I'd rather see LB in the backfield than Dion Lewis.  

 

[Anarchy99]

You think for 60 minutes that Lewis + Blount + White give NE more ways to attack from the tailback spot then just Bell does? 

As I mentioned a few pages ago, the Steelers have the cool nicknames (the triplets, the Big 3, the Killer B's) and the Patriots have the no names (to the casual football fan). Bell individually has been more productive than anyone on NE, but in team totals, the Patriots have gone toe to toe with PIT.

In games where Brady played but Gronk did not this year, NE averaged 30.3 ppg, 385 yd/gm, 269 passing yd/gm, 116 rushing yd/gm, with a +18.8 per game scoring differential.
In games where Big Ben played, PIT averaged 25.3 ppg, 377 yd/gm, 255 passing yd/gm, 122 yds/gm, with a +6.3 per game scoring differential.

You would think that having Bell and Brown would give the Steelers a huge advantage on offense, but NE apparently does a decent job with the guys they have. For example, since Week 9, Julian Edelman leads the entire NFL in receiving yards per game (98.3). Guys like White, Hogan, Mitchell, and Amendola accounted for 17 combined TD. It may not be pretty, but it has been productive.

 

[Sabertooth]

Consolation game.  

 

[Godsbrother]

As EG has said,  the stats don't lie.   No matter how you slice it based on the stats the Steelers will lose this game.  As much of a Steelers die-hard fan as I am, if you held a gun to my head and made me choose the winner I am taking the Patriots, no question about it.

So I view this game as a no-lose situation.  If the Steelers lose no one will be surprised because it is expected.  If the Patriots lose it will be another choke by the favored Patriots just like they did in 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009 and 2007.

It reminds me of an old SNL skit where Bill Murray suggested the US military should send old ladies off to fight wars.  If the US wins then great, if we lose we can say "big deal, you beat a bunch of old ladies". 

In this case the Steelers are the old ladies -- I hope we have our false teeth in and whip Tom Brady's head off with our babushkas.  

 

[Godsbrother]

Consolation game.  

You're probably right,  the Falcons are going to be tough....

 

[Sabertooth]

You're probably right,  the Falcons are going to be tough....

Not so fast my friend! 

Lol, great spate of games this weekend.  Can't wait.  

 

[Godsbrother]

Not so fast my friend! 

Lol, great spate of games this weekend.  Can't wait.  

  Just having some fun with ya, Tooth!    I'm looking forward to both games as well.   I hope we get a SB XLV rematch!

 

[Sabertooth]

Pitt is the team I am most worried about.  I think they roll this weekend.  I don't see Tomlin making the same procedural errors that doomed Garrett.