Max Power
Footballguy
because the point proved was worth the difference...
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AJ Smith "Lord of NO Rings" Poll (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter mambomambo
- Start date
Marauder
Footballguy
I'm a Chargers fan and have seen almost every game he has played in his career. I would say he is an elite talent but he has not yet performed up to his talent level for a whole year. He doesn't run great routes. He might be a top 10 WR but barely. Maybe our disagreement is just semantics. In my mind, Top 10 does not make you elite. Somebody compared him to Brandon Marshall earlier in this thread which is absurd. Marshall had 3 straight years over 100 catches with far less supporting talent around him.I'm not supporting AJ here. I think, if the the deal that Minnesota reportedly offered is accurate he should have jumped on it.There have been a lot of ridiculous statement on both sides of the argument in this thread but the idea that his agents could somehow negotiate a deal with another team that would get him the same money he is demanding but net the Bolts only a 7th round compensatory pick may be a shark pool record for absurdity.
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Gr00vus
Footballguy
No kidding. Beyond that, Jackson's agents show themselves to be idiots (yet again) by tipping their hand. Guess what loophole will be closed as a top agenda item when the owners formulate a new CBA?Jackson's agents have performed so poorly in all this it boggles the mind.
Right. I think it's the same answer in each case. Somebody is settling for X after turning down Y even though Y > X, because there are other considerations in play that make Y a poor choice in the view of the person turning it down.
Right — nothing about 2011 is guaranteed. The Chargers may not get a comp pick for Jackson, or they may get a first-round comp pick for him (although I don't think either of those scenarios is likely).More importantly, Jackson may end up being a restricted free agent again. Or the Chargers could tag-and-trade him before next year's draft. Or they could sign-and-trade him in a few weeks when Sidney Rice announces that he's not coming back this year.
I'm sure he's trying to, just like I'm sure that Jackson is trying to act in his best interests. I'm not sure that either one is succeeding. But my estimate of the likelihood that Jackson is succeeding is lower than my estimate of the likelihood that Smith is succeeding. I think Jackson's best move from this point on is to report by Nov 16 and be eligible to play in the final three games, substantially increasing the probability that he'll be an unrestricted free agent next season. But I think that option is inferior to signing the $3.3 million tender to begin with. Not my call, though. I think Smith's best move is to try to get the most for Jackson that he can. The probability that he'll be able to get at least a second and a fourth, which is reportedly what he was seeking, still seems fairly high, IMO. That's not my call either, though. (Any team willing to give up that much is going to want Jackson long-term; and any team that signs Jackson long-term shouldn't care much about the Sept 22 deadline that affects only two games. The idea that Smith let an important deadline pass yesterday is overblown.)
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mambomambo
Footballguy
Why is that Charger fans are so enamored with AJ Smith? It is beyond belief that one would agree that getting less tomorrow than you would get today is ok to prove a point....this is THE MOST RIDICULOUS aspect of this thread....
Mr. PadresLakers
Footballguy
As has been stated numerous times no has any idea what compensation the Chargers will ultimately end up with or if Jackson will ultimately sign on for a season to accrue another year. Furthermore, compensation picks should only be considered when determining the bare minimum a team should accept in a trade. If Phillip Rivers was holding out in the final year of his contract, would you consider it beyond belief that the Chargers wouldn't trade him for a 2nd round pick because at best he would net a third round compensation level the following year?
Frot
Footballguy
I think the vikings want to win as soon as possible, and I think 2 extra games this year matter. I would think they would have to offer less now.I also think the message that was sent was "we are not budging on our demands" and if no one met them before today, no one will.I'd be shocked if they get a 2nd and 4th for him now. There's little doubt in my mind this was either personal or to prove a point. I don't think the point will have any impact on how players deal with AJ.Maurile Tremblay said:
KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
Voted No, Yes.
mambomambo
Footballguy
wow....i guess this is enough for me...Charger fans, thank you for keeping AJ out of the GM market! Good luck with AJ! I'm out.
Hipple Long Ware & Peete
Footballguy
glad there's no question bias in this pole.
Mr. PadresLakers
Footballguy
Come back later when Jim Rome hooks you up with a coherent rebuttal bro
Sabertooth
Footballguy
If the Chargers keep getting worse, what will all that matter? I think AJ played chicken and lost. Vjax can recoup the money, what can AJ do?EBF said:
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Promise?
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Because the team has had more success under him than at any other time in the history of the franchise. As we've said too many times to count already.
Frot
Footballguy
How do you define success?cause i see, what, 3 playoff wins?no super bowl appearancesseems like from 92-924 they surpassed what AJ has done from 2004-2009
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Gr00vus
Footballguy
Winning percentage, making the playoffs, winning playoff games on a consistent basis. They had a nice spike in '94 but I think most of us view it as somewhat of a fluke, following which they regressed into abject laughing stock. This run has gone on for 6+ years, and despite some uniformed opinions, looks like it should continue a bit longer by design.
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Frot
Footballguy
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Great, thanks.if that is success then have at it
RBM
Footballguy
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
I guess they love their GM who is good enough to assemble a team that can consistently win a weak division, but almost never goes far in the playoffs.
Fluke or not, they made the Super Bowl, which is more than you say about the Chargers teams the past 6+ years. Also, how can you say they win playoff games on a consistent basis? They have made the playoffs five times since 2004 and have been one-and-out three of those times (twice in the divisional round after having a freaking bye)! Think about this: since '04, they have just as many home playoff losses as they do overall playoff wins.
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Happy Ragnarok
Footballguy
Voted the opposite.
Not Sure
Footballguy
I guess the Super Bowl doesn't matter in San Diego, but dominating one of the weakest divisions in the NFL is what's really important. Lord of No Rings indeed.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
I agree they haven't won in the playoffs on a consistent basis. So they haven't been a great success, but still more successful than the early 90's run where they only had 3 winning seasons, a 3-3 playoff record, had a top 5 scoring offense only once, lucked into beating the Steelers in the AFCC and then got crushed in the SB in '94. The quality of this team is much better than the quality of that team.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
I guess the Super Bowl doesn't matter in San Diego, but dominating one of the weakest divisions in the NFL is what's really important. Lord of No Rings indeed.
The Super Bowl isn't a playoff game?
KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
Some obvious fishing going on in here.
Shutout
Footballguy
I take it from reading this thread that a lot of people posting aren't familliar with the accounting/CBA end of this. I am and I don't say that as a negative to anyone; just that I can clear up some of the gray areas if anyone is interested.
This is a real loss for AJ. In opinion, I think he let his reputation/attitude cloud the bigger picture. This is a rare (unique) case. Usually, AJ (and any other GM) has the player over a barrel because in a capped year, the player holding out NEEDS the additional year of accrued service and will ultimiately cave. As pointed out by some astute observers here, this is not VJAX's case. In a normal capped year, he would have simply been an UFA and resigned under the tag, renegotiated a new deal with the Chargers or went somewhere else. But, in this particular case, he actually has one more year than necessary to be a FA under the CBA. So, he didn't need the year and the chances that any new CBA would extend from 4 to 6 years (the magic number that would actually affect VJAX) are extremely, extremely remote. So, he holds out and wants more money, more guaranteed, better financial security. Why risk injury like Javon Walker did when you don't need to just to earn what is measly in comparison the moment he signs a new deal?
Compensatory picks: Comp picks DO have a formula that determine what you receive. It is based on Salary, playing time, and honors received with the NEW team. In theory, he could wrangle his contract to receive more guaranteed money and lower base salary and it could hurt the Chargers but the reason you don't see this employed by design is because it is a contradiction of the new contract he signs. When he signs a new long-term deal with his new team, it will almost certainly have incentive clauses that reward him additional salary if he plays a certain amount of time, reaches certain performance marks, goes to the pro-bowl, etc. Because of this, his playing better also HELPS the Chargers raise their comp pick. Playing worse on purpose takes money out of his pocket so a player isn't going to get caught up in all that once he has his new deal.
As already mentioned, the highest comp pick can only be at the end of the third round. So, the Chargers appeared to forfeit getting more now than what they would even get in their best case scenario a year from now. The really interesting thing about comp picks iscomp picks can not be traded. So, in this case, not only do they maybe take less, but they also forfeit themselves the flexibility of taking a pick that they can not package for something else later.
The BIG consideration in this though is that compensatory picks is that they are never guaranteed when you lose a FA. They are awarded to teams that have lost more qualifying free agents than they gained the previous year in free agency. So, while people generally think its a give, its not. It jsut happens that usually teams that lose FA are normally good teams getting picked over or are letting a guy walk to get another guy, etc. If this situation tarnishes people's opinions of the Chargers enough or they sign more guys than they lose next year, or if anything happens to where they lose less than they get, they won't even get a compensatory pick.
Of course, AJ Smith will know what the deal is going to be before this bears fruit. So, he could just tag VJAX to protect himself. But, if he does this, that really begs the biggest quesiton of all: if you are ultimately willing to pay him the average of the top 5 salaries at the position ($10M+) for one year, why don't you just negotiate a deal that helps you better now and have him now and try to win a Super Bowl? Because if you try to just tag him over and over, you're going to pay him top salary anyway now and if you try to do it again next year, you will make him the highest paid WR in the game (based on the the "20% increase rule).
There's really no other way to see this as anything other than a win (at some point) for VJAX if he just sits tight. One way or the other, he will eventually sign a contract that has immediate guaranteed money and a long-term financial stability in amounts that dwarf what he was making. he will do this without risking injury and that's all he really wanted to start with.
If you take the stance of "AJ and the Chargers sent a message", then you have to realize "at what cost?". Because now you have sent a clear message and established a well known perception that, if you are a FA or kid being drafted to the Chargers, you better MAKE SURE you negotiate a contract that has as little years and as much guaranteed money in it as you possibly can. Otherwise, you are at their mercy. That colelctive attitude by just a few players who will demand big contracts will cripple the Chargers in time when a salary cap is restored because the team will not be able to book all the money in the same years. The biggest friend of a team when dealing with the salary cap is the ability to spread out the paragraph 5 money over the course of contracts.
This is a real loss for AJ. In opinion, I think he let his reputation/attitude cloud the bigger picture. This is a rare (unique) case. Usually, AJ (and any other GM) has the player over a barrel because in a capped year, the player holding out NEEDS the additional year of accrued service and will ultimiately cave. As pointed out by some astute observers here, this is not VJAX's case. In a normal capped year, he would have simply been an UFA and resigned under the tag, renegotiated a new deal with the Chargers or went somewhere else. But, in this particular case, he actually has one more year than necessary to be a FA under the CBA. So, he didn't need the year and the chances that any new CBA would extend from 4 to 6 years (the magic number that would actually affect VJAX) are extremely, extremely remote. So, he holds out and wants more money, more guaranteed, better financial security. Why risk injury like Javon Walker did when you don't need to just to earn what is measly in comparison the moment he signs a new deal?
Compensatory picks: Comp picks DO have a formula that determine what you receive. It is based on Salary, playing time, and honors received with the NEW team. In theory, he could wrangle his contract to receive more guaranteed money and lower base salary and it could hurt the Chargers but the reason you don't see this employed by design is because it is a contradiction of the new contract he signs. When he signs a new long-term deal with his new team, it will almost certainly have incentive clauses that reward him additional salary if he plays a certain amount of time, reaches certain performance marks, goes to the pro-bowl, etc. Because of this, his playing better also HELPS the Chargers raise their comp pick. Playing worse on purpose takes money out of his pocket so a player isn't going to get caught up in all that once he has his new deal.
As already mentioned, the highest comp pick can only be at the end of the third round. So, the Chargers appeared to forfeit getting more now than what they would even get in their best case scenario a year from now. The really interesting thing about comp picks iscomp picks can not be traded. So, in this case, not only do they maybe take less, but they also forfeit themselves the flexibility of taking a pick that they can not package for something else later.
The BIG consideration in this though is that compensatory picks is that they are never guaranteed when you lose a FA. They are awarded to teams that have lost more qualifying free agents than they gained the previous year in free agency. So, while people generally think its a give, its not. It jsut happens that usually teams that lose FA are normally good teams getting picked over or are letting a guy walk to get another guy, etc. If this situation tarnishes people's opinions of the Chargers enough or they sign more guys than they lose next year, or if anything happens to where they lose less than they get, they won't even get a compensatory pick.
Of course, AJ Smith will know what the deal is going to be before this bears fruit. So, he could just tag VJAX to protect himself. But, if he does this, that really begs the biggest quesiton of all: if you are ultimately willing to pay him the average of the top 5 salaries at the position ($10M+) for one year, why don't you just negotiate a deal that helps you better now and have him now and try to win a Super Bowl? Because if you try to just tag him over and over, you're going to pay him top salary anyway now and if you try to do it again next year, you will make him the highest paid WR in the game (based on the the "20% increase rule).
There's really no other way to see this as anything other than a win (at some point) for VJAX if he just sits tight. One way or the other, he will eventually sign a contract that has immediate guaranteed money and a long-term financial stability in amounts that dwarf what he was making. he will do this without risking injury and that's all he really wanted to start with.
If you take the stance of "AJ and the Chargers sent a message", then you have to realize "at what cost?". Because now you have sent a clear message and established a well known perception that, if you are a FA or kid being drafted to the Chargers, you better MAKE SURE you negotiate a contract that has as little years and as much guaranteed money in it as you possibly can. Otherwise, you are at their mercy. That colelctive attitude by just a few players who will demand big contracts will cripple the Chargers in time when a salary cap is restored because the team will not be able to book all the money in the same years. The biggest friend of a team when dealing with the salary cap is the ability to spread out the paragraph 5 money over the course of contracts.
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Gr00vus
Footballguy
Almost nobody does this. I doubt it starts now.Also A.J. has never made a big splash in free agency, I also doubt that starts now, so the chances of them not getting any compensatory pick are pretty small if something like the current arrangement remains.
Shutout
Footballguy
A draftee wont have leverage here, agreed. But any FA that is coming off his rookie deal (e.g., around 26 years old) is going to take a long, hard look at this. The current trend in the NFL is "Two big paydays", signified by the ability to have a career long enough to reach Free Agency twice. Trust me, ALL NFL players want that first FA deal to be as short as humanly possible.And when you say "almost nobody does this"; yes and no. EVERYONE starts a negotiation at this point, trust me. But what usually happens is the team gets them to lengthen it by offering more guaranteed money. this helps the team maange the contract and spread out the cap hit (as mentioned in the first post). It gives the player more money in pocket today. Sounds like a win/win but in this case brings us back to the beginning: If the Chargers were willing to do that (give more money), they wouldn't need this situation. Yes, they may have as good chance as any to get a compensatory pick but the fact remains evident; there is an amount of gamble and risk on the organization's side when doing this and it does appear that they turned down a 2nd + next year in return for an unknown.
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Dexter Manley
Footballguy
Also, it's not like the Chargers will be getting a comp pick next season (if they do get one under the new CBA). They will get the comp pick in 2012.
So basically they chose the possibility of a 2012 comp pick (which will probably be a 3rd at the highest), over a 2011 2nd round pick and a 2012 5th round conditional pick.
That potential 2012 3rd round comp pick is worth about a 2011 4th round pick. So basically, AJ chose a potential 4th round pick over a 2nd round pick, unless he's able to trade VJax at a later date.
Now, I'm of the opinion that AJ Smith has been very good for the Chargers, but if he doesn't get a trade done for VJax, he really blew it here, imo.
So basically they chose the possibility of a 2012 comp pick (which will probably be a 3rd at the highest), over a 2011 2nd round pick and a 2012 5th round conditional pick.
That potential 2012 3rd round comp pick is worth about a 2011 4th round pick. So basically, AJ chose a potential 4th round pick over a 2nd round pick, unless he's able to trade VJax at a later date.
Now, I'm of the opinion that AJ Smith has been very good for the Chargers, but if he doesn't get a trade done for VJax, he really blew it here, imo.
FantasyMan
Footballguy
AJ botched this one, but that doesn't mean he's a bad GM
Gr00vus
Footballguy
At this point, if A.J. fails to trade Jackson for a 2nd or better and Jackson doesn't play for the Chargers this year at any point, A.J. will indeed have really blown it.
SSOG
Moderator
Why not? If A.J. Smith can pass up on a guaranteed 2nd rounder and change in exchange for a possible late 3rd rounder out of spite, why can't Vincent Jackson convert some salary to guaranteed-to-be-achieved bonuses to reduce that Comp pick out of spite?What VJax's agent wants isn't irrelevant. Agents don't speak to the media for themselves, they speak for their clients. If any player had an agent that was popping off to the media saying nonsense that the player didn't believe in or agree with, the player would fire that agent. If the agent is saying this in public, you can be damn sure that Vincent Jackson is on board. And if both the player and the agent are going to be actively looking for a way to reduce SD's compensatory draft pick, why is it so unrealistic that they do so?
Plus, beyond the players, I doubt he's engendering much goodwill in front offices. I guarantee you the next time he approaches the Vikings looking to possibly get something done, Vikings brass is going to play hardball. I suspect many other front offices will do the exact same thing, if they're not already.A guy like Mike Shanahan is able to consistently make trades that improve his team because he has a reputation as a fair and considerate trader who is willing to make concessions. That reputation has served him well in the past. He's fostered good relationships with coaches like Gary Kubiak and Jeff Fisher, and those two-way relationships have in turn benefited both teams. For some concrete examples... when Denver was secretly trying to move up to land Jay Cutler, Shanahan didn't want to bring Cutler in for a workout and tip his hand, so he called Jeff Fisher (who had auditioned all three top QB prospects), and Fisher gave him his honest thoughts and impressions. For another example, Denver worked out a trade to send Charlie Adams to Dallas back in preseason of 2006, but he knew that Gary Kubiak liked Adams a lot, so he called Kubiak and told him he could have Adams if he matched Dallas's offer.How many positive relationships like that do you think A.J. Smith has? How many coaches or GMs out there do you think are going to be willing to help him out if it doesn't hurt their team? How many coaches and GMs do you think are going to be motivated to screw him as much as they possibly can?
Here are some stats from 2008-2009 for some of the more notable receivers in the NFL.Calvin Johnson - 2383 yards, 17 TDsBrandon Marshall - 2431 yards, 16 TDsReggie Wayne - 2409 yards, 16 TDsVincent Jackson - 2345 yards, 16 TDsThe only guys head and shoulders above VJax over the last two years are Fitzgerald, Johnson, Moss, and White. Now, it's possible that you have a very high threshold for "elite" and think there are only 4 "elite" WRs in the league right now, and I'm 100% fine with that position... but over the last two seasons, Vincent Jackson has been every bit as prolific as Calvin, Marshall, and Wayne. And he's been more prolific than anyone else.Marauder said:
Gr00vus
Footballguy
As noted in other threads, A.J. hasn't had any problems making the deals he's wanted to make so far. The Rams GM is already on record saying what the Chargers were asking for in this case was not unreasonable. I think this fabricated concern isn't an issue.
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Ysatnaf_Gnik
Footballguy
Coming from the Ram's GM,then it must have been reasonable...
BoulderBob
Footballguy
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Polar Dude
Footballguy
Kind of like AJ knows more about running a winning NFL franchise than anyone else in this thread?
Ysatnaf_Gnik
Footballguy
Then by all means Charger fans....dont criticize AJ and keep kissing his behind.
fatness
Footballguy
Because Jackson believes he'll more than make up next year what he loses in salary this year. And he may be right.There is no way the Chargers can do that, however, unless something weird and beneficial happens with compensation picks in the new CBA, which is unlikely. They'll get the lower pick next year, or no pick, and that's all.
Max Power
Footballguy
Again... the Rams GM said a 2nd and 4th to lock Jackson up LONG TERM is not reasonsable (and he is correct). However, no teams were willing to pay top dollar along with multiple meaningful picks. So in this case, the chargers priced themselves out of the market and will most likely have less to show for it when all is said and done.Coming from the Ram's GM,then it must have been reasonable...
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
Brandon Marshall is more talented than Vincent Jackson IMO.A 2nd is not enough. Brandon Marshall brought two 2nds.We probably won't know for sure until tomorrow...but so called "sources"keep saying that the Vikings offered at least a 2nd Rd pick.....
I think the first half of your answer is correct.I think both parties think they can get more later, and both parties might be right.
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Frot
Footballguy
Do you really think there is a better offer for Jackson waiting out there?
Gr00vus
Footballguy
I haven't seen that qualification in any of his quotes - do you have a link for that?Again... the Rams GM said a 2nd and 4th to lock Jackson up LONG TERM is not reasonsable (and he is correct). However, no teams were willing to pay top dollar along with multiple meaningful picks. So in this case, the chargers priced themselves out of the market and will most likely have less to show for it when all is said and done.Coming from the Ram's GM,then it must have been reasonable...
Polar Dude
Footballguy
Name all of the GMs who have a better winning percentage and more playoff appearances over the last seven years than AJ. I'm going to go ahead and guess that it's a pretty short list. All GMs make bad and good decisions and are occasionally deserving of criticism.I'm sure AJ doesn't really care whether you or I criticize him or kiss his ###. I'm sure the Spanos family doesn't care much either. What's your point?
I think it's decently likely that the Chargers will be able to get at least the 2nd and 5th that the Vikings were offering (or whatever it was), either this year or next year. And they might even get Jackson for the 2010 playoffs in the meantime. It's not really my opinion that matters, though, since I haven't been negotiating with other NFL GM's. AJ Smith's opinion is a lot better informed than mine.
cstu
Footballguy
I've stood by every AJ decision until this one. Other ones were questionable but I could see how they were for the good of the team. Time will tell and maybe a deal gets done, but I don't see how passing up a sure 2nd for a late 3rd helps the teams in any way. My opinion is that AJ is letting his ego get in the way and hurting the team just to spite VJax and send a message to any other players who might try the same thing.
Max Power
Footballguy
It was obviously implied in his quote that is posted all over these threads. He said something along the lines of "If youre going to pay that much money for a guy, the chargers asking price isn't unreasonable." He was talking long term. Not the 6mil one year deal that Minny was rumored to have ready for him.I haven't seen that qualification in any of his quotes - do you have a link for that?Again... the Rams GM said a 2nd and 4th to lock Jackson up LONG TERM is not reasonsable (and he is correct). However, no teams were willing to pay top dollar along with multiple meaningful picks. So in this case, the chargers priced themselves out of the market and will most likely have less to show for it when all is said and done.Coming from the Ram's GM,then it must have been reasonable...
Frot
Footballguy
we'll seei just don't see how the price anyone pay would go up for less time with him
Max Power
Footballguy
It wont, unless Jackson comes way down on his contract demands. But I dont see that happening either.
