Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
how many games before kc fans are cheering for smith to get carted off the field?
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Alex Smith Trade (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter towney
- Start date
Chachi
Footballguy
The Chachinator finds this greatly misleading.
You are right, Alex Smith has played on a better team.
Balco
Footballguy
Just not an Alex Smith fan. He played on a run heavy offense, so he rarely was exposed to defense geared to stop the pass. He could hit the tight end or backs on short passes, but he was wildly inconsistent on intermediate throws. I don't think it is a coincidence that Michael Crabtree's stats went through the roof when Kaepernick took over.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
Particularly when you look at the trends over the last four years. One is trending up and one is trending down. And one just got the best QB improving HC in the league while another is being scouted by the Cardinals.This post is going to be so bumpable later on. I envision something like the Cheifs having as many or more wins in their first four games than they did all of last year and the haters will say, "But Alex Smith's numbers aren't that great. He's only averaging 220 yards passing 2 TD's and .6 picks a game," while those that know anything about football (real football, not this silly #### we do here) will point to the W's.
Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I thought Andy Reid should have taken a year off to deal with himself and his family who has suffered a lot of trauma over the last few years. After seeing the plan to get Alex Smith, it only affirms my belief that Andy Reid needs serious psychological help. Has he seen what Alex Smith has done prior to Harbaugh figuring out a way to not let that guy hurt him while he groomed CK? Is Reid not bright enough to figure out Harbaugh realized Smith could only take him so far? Did he see the market for Smith last year after the NFCC run? What was Smith offered? He came back to the Niners with his tail between his legs and ended up getting embarrassed. I wish Alex Smith all the luck in the world and I have nothing against the guy at all. He gets to compete in the NFL, I'm jealous if anything however that said he would be at the bottom of 32 starting NFL Qbs in terms of talent and skill. I do think he can take a loaded team that is run heavy and win games. Alex Smith would have been a decent QB in a different era perhaps. But in the 2013 and beyond NFL, there is no room for a weak arm inaccurate intermediate passing QB. Now perhaps Reid wants Smith for a year or two while he grooms a rookie but trading a couple of 2nd round picks doesn't sound like you are trading for a future back up. Not sure that Smith is a major upgrade over Cassell to be honest.
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0http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=270465
and in case their feeling wasn't clear:http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=270494&page=2
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I'd give that title to Harbaugh after what he did with Smith.
Donnybrook
Footballguy
I have never been a Matt Cassel fan but I would like to see him end up starting for the Raiders. It would be somewhat entertaining to see him face the Smith lead Chiefs twice a year.
cstu
Footballguy
As a Chargers fan I'd like to see this too.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
as a player in an idp league, I'd also like to see it
If they wanted a system qb, they should have stuck with cassell. He stunk last year because the system sunk. When he was a Patriot he was serviceable. When weis brought the same offense to kc, cassell was again serviceable. That year most would have agreed cassell was better than Alex smith, then weis left and hatbaugh came in and polished this turd so shiny, he got the #34 pick and a future 3rd for him. Amazing how many people in the shark pool can't see this for what it is.
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Don't forget about:Josh Johnson at a non-scholarship San Diego collegeAndrew LuckColin Kaepernick
TheFanatic
Footballguy
You say that Smith can only take a team so far and then mention he took the team to the NFCC? Had there not been two special teams fumbles in that game Smith is probably still the starter. He took a team with a strong d and great line a bisciut from the super bowl. KC has a good D, albeit tired D from the lack of offense, and a good LT available at the 1.1. He could thrive in that system.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Tom BradyBig BenJoe FlaccoAndy DaltonAndrew LuckMatt SchaubPeyton ManningEli ManningPhillip RiversRG IIIMichael Vick Tony RomoAaron RodgersMatt StaffordDrew BreesMatt RyanColin KaepernickRussell WilsonI would say Alex Smith is a borderline top 20, top 25 QB, a huge step off from the top 10 QBs in the league. I just don't think he is gonna do well in Andy's system but that said I don't remember McNabb throwing a lot of deep balls. The system is geared around a short controlled passing game. I don't see Smith taking the Chiefs past a showdown with the likes of Brady, Manning, Flacco, and Big Ben...11 trips to the Super Bowl in the last 12 years, 7 rings between them, just stating the facts my friend. I do wish Smith the best in KC, hope he gets a little respect back after what happened with CK.
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TheFanatic
Footballguy
I don't know if he will be all that fantasy relevant, but I think he will definitely be relevant in the NFL. Remember, Aikman was a terrible FFB QB but he won a lot of games. Look who the Ravens won the SB with the first time. He's not Brady, Mannings, or Brees, but he can win games. Flacco didn't put up stud fantasy numbers over his career and he is the highest paid QB in the league. Two different discussions here.
Balco
Footballguy
Dilfer won a super bowl because he played on a team with an elite defense and the offense was not centered around him (Priest Holmes/Jamal Lewis led run game).If you watch Troy and Aikman and Alex Smith play, it is like night and day. Aikman threw a great deep ball, and he was not only accurate statistically, but he threw the ball where receivers could make plays, something Alex Smith could not do on a consistent basis.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
Point 1: KC defense plus Jamaal Charles could be that same model.Point 2: you totally missed the point I was making.'Balco said:
Footballhead
WWPRD?
People are so stupid saying KC paid too much. The 2nd pick next only works if Alex works out for KC and if he did, it'll be a low 2nd round pick.
FUBAR
Footballguy
A lot of things could happen, but the Chiefs D is far from the Ravens was back in 1999/2000 and frankly I don't see reason for it to rise to that level.
Please explain how you think this to be true because the stats sure don't support it. KC's D was on the field for 973 plays last year - 3rd fewest in the NFL. They gave up tied for 4th mosst yards per play. They had the fewest interceptions, and generally stunk.
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TheFanatic
Footballguy
They were 20th in time of possession so they may not have been on the field for that many plays, but that stat shows that they were pounded with the run all the time. Maybe because they were constantly playing from behind and other teams could just kill the clock. 3rd fewest plays seems like a knock on my statement, but I think it actually bolsters it in that they were in run defense all game long.They played for a lame duck coaching staff seemingly from day one and still have six players that went to the pro bowl. They have a lot of talent on that side of the ball. Look for them to be greatly improved next year, particularly if they are not constantly playing from behind. I highly doubt Andy Reid will be asked why Charles only had five carries in a game. He won't be stupid enough to limit his best offensive player so stupidly unless there's an injury.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Really? Im pretty sure Andy has been known to get too pass happy and stop running the ball with Westbrook & McCoy.Ill let a Eagle homer verify but that seems to be how he has rolled befoee
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TheFanatic
Footballguy
I will agree, but not to the point of 5 carries.
Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
AR is known to be pass happy. Every knows his track record. Philly fans know it. Alex Smith performed better when his attempts were limited in the 25 to 30 per game range. Harbaugh figured that out about Alex. And now expect AR to push Alex Smith's attempts much higher than he's used to or maybe even is comfortable with.
FUBAR
Footballguy
They did have the 6th most rushing attempts against them. And the least # of passes, so good point. Also explains why they didn't get many interceptions if teams didn't have to throw. Still don't think they're a good defense, but they should be improved.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
I think they have some good players on D, but as a unit, no they are not good. They need someone to get them into line and play to their potential as 11 guys. Shore up the O Line, grab draft some players on the other side of the ball and resign Bowe and they could win some games. I doubt there is much fantasy impact from these guys, but they should be much improved in terms of the NFL.
drummer
Footballguy
I give that one to Norv Turner when it comes to Smith.
drummer
Footballguy
That 49er team wasn't that different from Singletary's teams. It was Harbaugh and Fangio, not all Smith, whose season was more smoke and mirrors (he took 44 sacks that year).
cstu
Footballguy
I meant to bring this up about Smith - his sack rate is one of the biggest negatives about him. Sure he doesn't throw many INT's but how many of those sacks were drive killers?
drummer
Footballguy
That season the 49ers were one of the least successful offenses in the League on 3rd down, and part of that was Smith just taking sacks to protect the ball. You can do that when you have the #1 giveaway/takeaway ratio in the League, as well as David Akers being your leading scorer. This past season Smith was at 29 sacks IIRC through nine games until injury. For comparison, Kaepernick would have to take 13 sacks in three remaining games of his starts to match Smith. So it's far to say that Smith takes those sacks instead of trying to make plays out if them, and it helps a completion percentage as well by not throwing a ball or two away.
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
@IanKenyonNFL: Alex Smith is 3-16 as a starter when asked to throw 35+ times. Andy Reid's Eagles threw the ball 35.7 times per game over the past 4 years.
Bamac
Footballguy
Any chance Smith was asked to throw more when the team was in catch-up mode? Think there might be some reverse causation here?I don't have a dog in the Alex Smith fight, but this kind of statistic annoys me. (Not a dig on you for re-posting it; people who get paid to come up with this nonsense are the ones who annoy me.)
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
Of course there's the chance but is that the case?There was a similar stats to Vick but the Eagles just trhow that much so I'm not sure.'Bamac said:
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I just wanted to say that in light of the contract with Bowe that if trading for Alex Smith helped get that done it makes the deal a lot better in my eyes.
CalBear
Footballguy
Certainly part of what's being measured is that Smith isn't asked to throw 35 times unless he's losing. Probably part of what's being measured is that Smith isn't good enough to be relied on as the focal point of the offense.I just ran some stats for comparison sake, and here's some interesting data points for QBs in games with > 35 attempts.'Bamac said:
Farve, 65-73 (.471) (most)
Manning, 70-41 (.633)
Brees, 49-52 (.485) (perhaps a bit surprising)
Elway, 40-41 (.494) (disputes the assertion that he was limited because of Reeves' conservative offense)
Brady, 54-24 (.692) (highest win pecentage)
Montana, 37-26 (.583)
Rogers 19-18 (.514)
Steve DeBerg, 8-45-1 (.157) (worst with > 40 games)
Chris Miller, 2-27(.069) (ouch)
Ryan Fitzpatrick, 3-21-1 (.140)
David Carr, 1-12 (.077) (worst active, if you count him active)
Cam Newton, 1-11 (.083) (worst active, if you don't count Carr)
Dave Brown, Bob Griese, 0-11 (most games without a win)
According to PFR, Smith is actually 3-13 (.231), and he's 1-0 in playoff games. Don't know where 3-16 comes from. But it does seem that Smith is more likely to be Steve DeBerg than Joe Montana.
drummer
Footballguy
A lot of those games where he had to throw +35 attempts was in Jimmy Raye's offense, and most of those games they did have to play catch up. Opposing teams would be up 2 or 3 scores in the second half, and dared Smith to throw, ultimately to make that DeBerg "played well enough to lose you a game" mistake. His TD to INT rate was 18-12 in 2009, 14-10 in 2010, again in Jimmy Raye's offense. Both those seasons were truncated seasons, not full 16 game seasons due to injury or starting the second half of 2009. As I posted earlier, Smith had only played 2 full seasons as starter - in 2006 and in 2011. This past season of course he was replaced by Kaepernick. The key here is how long he will last as starter in KC. If he has to dropback and throw over 30+ attempts, stuff will start to leak. Or he will get injured.
drummer
Footballguy
What's the crime? His career stats?
drummer
Footballguy
The BOOOOO's will be louder in Arrowhead than they were at Candlestick.
drummer
Footballguy
Again, Smith had only played 2 full seasons in the NFL. That's looking past 365 days.
drummer
Footballguy
grateful zed
Footballguy
i agree, there is a lot more to this trade than meets the eye. but i havent seen the shark pool stirred up like this in a while.
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roadkill1292
Footballguy
I blame Joe Flacco.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Are you a glass half full or half empty type of person? Beacuse Smith can be viewed both ways. He did much better the last year and a half and his numbers pointed to him being a statistically solid if not very good QB. And for that performance he lost his job to someone else. He also was not so great before that and struggled mightily his first few seasons.
As I see it, when the 49ers were still a work in progress (a few ways away from being a good team), Smith did not do very well. I would suggest that the 2013 Chiefs will more resemble the mid 2000s 49ers than the 2012 Niners.
For the record, the 2005 Niners went 4-12 with 239 points for and 428 points against. The 2012 Chiefs went 2-14 and scored 211 points but allowed 425. Looks pretty similar to me overall.
The recent Niners had a lot going for them to help Smith out. A great running game, a tough defense, and two strong receiving options in Davis and Crabtree. Yes, the Chiefs have Charles and Bowe and they might not be god awful on offense, but they seem to be aways away from being a good team. Smith should be better than when he first came into the league (and was very young and very green even if he was a high draft pick).
He will likely do better than he did his first few years in SF but not as good as he performed in 2011 and 2012. IMO, he will do better than Cassel did . . . but not by a lot.
As I see it, when the 49ers were still a work in progress (a few ways away from being a good team), Smith did not do very well. I would suggest that the 2013 Chiefs will more resemble the mid 2000s 49ers than the 2012 Niners.
For the record, the 2005 Niners went 4-12 with 239 points for and 428 points against. The 2012 Chiefs went 2-14 and scored 211 points but allowed 425. Looks pretty similar to me overall.
The recent Niners had a lot going for them to help Smith out. A great running game, a tough defense, and two strong receiving options in Davis and Crabtree. Yes, the Chiefs have Charles and Bowe and they might not be god awful on offense, but they seem to be aways away from being a good team. Smith should be better than when he first came into the league (and was very young and very green even if he was a high draft pick).
He will likely do better than he did his first few years in SF but not as good as he performed in 2011 and 2012. IMO, he will do better than Cassel did . . . but not by a lot.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
You're one of those guys. PRobably called for Smith to be benched the second they lost the NFCC in 2011. In the right system, the guy can win. He didn't lose the NFCC game and was a biscuit of getting you guys to the SB two years ago. Just because you're a homer doesn't mean you know football.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
Things turn around very quickly in the NFL. Look at the Rams last year. had the 2nd overall pick with just 2 wins. This year 7-8-1 and had the best record in the NFC west over even San Fran and Seattle. The Chiefs have 6 pro bowlers on the team, Bowe is back, Charles is there, they franchised their LT and have the 1st overall pick. If their LT can move to RT and they draft Joekel, then they have a strong O line, particularly for passing. I think they need another weapon on offense who may or may not be on the team already.I see them being middle of the pack next year in the 7-9/8-8 range as the pieces come together. Remember, Reid is pretty good at coaching up QB's. So the idea that we know exactly what we have in Smith (whether the haters or the people that see the improvement over the last 4 years), there is little doubt in my mind that the guy improves. Maybe not right away as he adjusts to the system, but I think by the end of the year next year, there will be lots of crow to dish out. Maybe I'll be eating it, but I doubt it.
