Some comments from a devil's advocate perspective.
To judge these comps, let's take a look at how these players fared in their 3rd seasons:
- Hopkins - 111/1521/11 in 16 games
- Moss - 77/1437/15 in 16 games
- Green - 98/1426/11 in 16 games
- Beckham - 101/1367/10 in 16 games
- Evans - 96/1321/12 in 16 games
- Fitz - 69/946/6 in 13 games
- Colston - 47/760/5 in 11 games
- Watkins - 28/430/2 in 8 games
- Gordon - 24/303/0 in 5 games
- Thomas - TBD
Cooper - 48/680/7 in 14 games
Gordon doesn't seem like a good comp since his issues were drug-related, so I will ignore him. That leaves just one reasonably close comp for their first 3 seasons - Watkins... another guy who grossly failed to meet expectations in year 3 and then followed up by failing to meet reduced expectations in year 4. Another guy who has struggled to play effectively through injuries.
How important is it that the first 2 seasons were comparable to a sample of impressive players, when the 3rd season is generally not comparable?
As previously discussed in this thread, most seem to want to view this as a positive, assuming he will be healthy going forward and his performance will rebound as a result. That isn't a given, though. The negative way to look at this is that he has suffered injuries (including back, shoulder, knee, head, and ankle injuries) for the past 1.5 seasons and played poorly while playing through them.
I posted previously about his splits in 2016 and 2017, but I have since read that he also faded down the stretch in 2015, so I took a look:
- 2015 (games 1-8): 45/653/4 on 72 targets
- 2015 (games 9-16): 27/417/2 on 58 targets
- 2016 (games 1-8): 52/787/2 on 80 targets
- 2016 (games 9-16): 30/363/3 on 50 targets
- 2017 (games 1-8): 34/404/3 on 66 targets
- 2017 (games 9-16): 14/276/4 on 28 targets (in 6 games)
I don't know what led to his dropoff in 2015. Was he playing through injuries then, too?
In his 3 seasons, he has 11 games with 100+ receiving yards. Only 3 of those games came during the second half of the season. He has averaged just 48 receiving yards per game during the second half of his seasons, compared to 77 rypg in the first half of those seasons.
When do these things become trends?
More importantly, at his ADP, do you want to draft a guy who has consistently faded down the stretch?
Yes, but how did the #2 and #3 targets compare in those other seasons?
- 1998 - #1 Tim Brown, #2 James Jett, #3 Terry Mickens
- 1999 - #1 Tim Brown, #2 James Jett, #3 Terry Mickens
- 2000 - #1 Tim Brown, #2 Andre Rison (33 years old), #3 James Jett
- 2001 - #1a Tim Brown, #1b Jerry Rice, #3 Jerry Porter
- 2002 - #1 Keyshawn Johnson, #2 Keenan McCardell, #3 Joe Jurevicius
- 2003 - #1 Keenan McCardell, #2 Keyshawn Johnson (10 games), #3 Charles Lee
- 2004 - #1 Michael Clayton, #2 Joey Galloway, #3 Joe Jurevicius
- 2005 - #1 Joey Galloway, #2 Michael Clayton, #3 Ike Hilliard
- 2006 - #1 Joey Galloway, #2 Michael Clayton, #3 Ike Hilliard
- 2007 - #1 Joey Galloway, #2 Ike Hilliard, #3 Michael Clayton
- 2008 - #1 Antonio Bryant, #2 Michael Clayton, #3 Ike Hilliard
If healthy and not suspended, IMO Jordy is better than most of those #2 WRs and Bryant is better than all of those #3 WRs. I didn't bother listing the #4 WRs (and sometimes there weren't any worth listing), but WR Switzer has potential to be better than any #4 WR Gruden has had.
I know some people will laugh about Switzer, but Gruden
said yesterday that he has "been a force as a slot receiver. He's really done well." Maybe it is coachspeak, we'll see. I watched him play a good amount in college and expected him to be a solid NFL slot WR. He was behind another good one in Dallas last season as a rookie, then Gruden traded for him.
Crabtree left and took 101 targets with him. Patterson took another 42. If healthy and not suspended, IMO it seems extremely likely that Jordy, Bryant, and Switzer will combine for 143 targets. It is easy to project... for example: 80 for Jordy, 50 for Bryant, 13 for Switzer.
It is also worth noting that Gruden's offenses threw more often to the RBs than the Raiders have in Cooper's career. Throwing out the high and low seasons, mainly to ditch the high outlier (204 targets in 2003), his offenses have averaged targeting their RBs 147 times. Last year's Raiders targeted RBs 119 times.
Anyway, IMO it is easy to see reasons that Cooper will not be a target hog. Of course, the biggest factor will be whether he stays healthy and performs well. If he starts slow or picks up an injury...
I will take the under on 25% of team targets for Cooper, partly due to competition for targets and partly due to his propensity to get hurt and see his play drop off.
