Analyze your FF rosters: bet the farm or panic? (1 Viewer)

[jdoggydogg]

Now that many of us have drafted for 2013, I'm interested in some post-draft analyses. Which players are you ecstatic to own, and which players do you already regret owning?

 

[jdoggydogg]

I'll get the ball rolling:

Bet the farm

Reggie Bush
I can't stop believing that this guy is going to be gold in PPR leagues. Matthew Berry points out that Detroit RBs caught around 90 balls in 2012. I hear Bush is a pretty decent receiver.

Colin Kaepernick
Yes, he lost his best WR. Yes, the 49ers are primarily a running team. Yes, the 49ers have a good defense and may not need to score a ton of points week to week. But Kaepernick is a singular talent, and I think a top 5 finish is not overly optimistic.

Panic

Josh Gordon
Love this guy's raw talent, and I think he could grow to be a dominant WR. But I passed on guys like Miles Austin to nab Gordon in my dynasty draft. My fingers are crossed.

 

[FUBAR]

Disagree on Gordon. In dynasty I think he's a top 10 type.

In my redraft, I shouldn't have drafted Gronk as high as I did (5.01) and also including Blackmon and Gordon was very risky.

In my dynasty teams...

Drafted this off-season, I "regret" Aaron Hernandez, Santonio Holmes, paid too much in auction for Decker and Foles (a long time ago, thought he had a good chance to start). Happy about Tannehill and Bradford as my QBBC (value), McCoy and as a late flier Gonzalez (before he was coming back). Traded too much to draft Tyler Wilson.

Guys I've owned for a long time but would like to trade: Roddy White, Peyton, Welker, Maclin.

Only rookie I'm more excited about now than I was when drafted is Margus Hunt. May not have done a whole lot yet, but the dude will be beast-mode II.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Disagree on Gordon. In dynasty I think he's a top 10 type.

In my redraft, I shouldn't have drafted Gronk as high as I did (5.01) and also including Blackmon and Gordon was very risky.

Gordon's dynasty potential is sky high. I agree. It's that I passed on Miles Austin. My consternation stems from the old "proven vet vs. talented youngster" debate. While I love Gordon, I can't help but think Austin is being. woefully undervalued this season.

Chris Harris would argue you did the right thing drafting Gronk in the 5th. As long as you have a decent backup in Gronk's absense, Harris would say that 13 games of Gronk is still better than any other TE in the league.

 

[JAMES!]

I absolutely love Gordon this season. Some good stuff here:

Josh Gordon had a very impressive rookie season, catching 50 passes for 805 yards and six scores for the Browns. He averaged a solid 8.5 yards and 1.16 Fantasy points per target despite being out of football in 2011, and I think big things are in store for him in 2013.

Looking at the raw data a few things jump out at you about Gordon. His 8.5 yards per target ranked T-24th (with Steve Smith of Carolina) last year among the 70 most targeted receivers (on a per game basis). What is most impressive about that is that Gordon did that on a team that threw the ball more than 10 yards in the air on just 27 percent of their pass attempts in 2012 and averaged just 6.5 yards per pass attempt (27th in NFL). Gordon's 2.0 yards per target differential was the 14th-best figure in the league among the Top 70 receivers. That 2.0 YPTD put him in elite company as others with a YPTD over 2.0 last year included Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Danario Alexander (for Gordon's new OC Norv Turner), Vincent Jackson, Andre Johnson, Jordy Nelson, Lance Moore, Malcom Floyd (also for Norv), T.Y. Hilton and Dez Bryant. Gordon was the only receiver other than Cecil Shorts in the top 14 of YPTD who was not in an upper echelon passing game like Detroit, Denver, New Orleans, Green Bay, Indianapolis or Houston (you could argue Johnson on his own is elite).

With an increased emphasis on down-the-field throwing from Norv (averaged over 40 percent of passes going at least 10 yards in the air over the last five years), we can expect Browns quarterback Brandon Weeden to have an increased yards per attempt in 2013. Given Gordon's already impressive YPTD, he should approach the 17 yards per catch and 10 yards per target historically enjoyed by Turner's top receiver over the last five years. In fact, Turner is the only play caller in the NFL that the 17/10 ratio has been true for his top receiver in each of the last five seasons:

2013 -- Danario Alexander: 17.8/10.6
2011 -- Vincent Jackson: 18.4/10.0
2010 -- Vincent Jackson: 17.7/10.3
2009 -- Vincent Jackson: 17.2/10.9
2008 -- Vincent Jackson: 18.6/10/9

Observing Browns camp as I have much of this month, it is clear that Gordon is far and away the top target in the passing game for Weeden and has the ability to become dominant like an Andre Johnson or Brandon Marshall. I am not saying he will produce like them anytime soon, but Gordon still has plenty of upside. Let's say Gordon sees an uptick to 8.0 targets per game, which is not unrealistic at all in this offense. Even with his two-game suspension, Gordon could produce the following stat line: 112 targets, 59 receptions, 1,120 yards and seven scores, which could be the tip of the iceberg if (and yes, it is a big if) Weeden can hold up his end of the bargain. After all, Philip Rivers had his worst year ever and Danario Alexander had never produced before being signed off the street last year, and look at the success they had behind a terrible offensive line.

Finally, there is one more factor to consider with Gordon for 2013: Turner will use him in the slot a lot to generate favorable matchups. I have seen this every single day in training camp and it should help Gordon improve on his 52 percent catch rate. He is relatively unstoppable out of the free release that the slot provides and I think it will make Gordon a more dominant factor in terms of red zone scoring and overall efficiency. Keep in mind, in Vincent Jackson's last three full seasons with Norv, he was lined up in the slot on over 30 percent of his routes. On those routes Jackson enjoyed a 70 percent catch rate an scored eight times while averaging nearly 14 yards per target!

Last year, Gordon lined up in the slot on just 10 percent of his plays, which was criminal. However, he was a beast when he did, which bodes well for 2013. Working out of the slot in 2012, Gordon caught 75 percent of his targets, averaged a league high 16.9 yards per target and scored two of his five touchdowns, per Pro Football Focus. It should also be noted that Gordon also led the NFL in yards per slot route run at 4.57, better than Calvin Johnson and Michael Crabtree, who were second and third.

Gordon was incredibly efficient and dynamic in his rookie year despite not playing any football in 2011 and being held back by one of the least aggressive passing attacks in football. He possesses the physical tools to be dominant both on the outside and in the slot, making him a matchup nightmare when smartly moved around. With proper utilization, Gordon has the tools to become an elite receiver who can produce 1,300 yards and 8-10 TDs per year (perhaps higher). The two game suspension will just depress Gordon's price tag on Draft Day (current ADP 41st among receivers), which is great news for you. Without a suspension, he would have been in my Top 24 this year, so I really do think highly of his talent and his opportunity. He has a ton of upside and I expect Gordon to become a household name in Fantasy, so you can steal him as your No. 4 receiver and reap the rewards starting in Week 3.

 

[jdoggydogg]

I absolutely love Gordon this season.

I can't argue with the talent. Let's hope he realizes his career is more important than smoking weed.

 

[Cyclones]

Was ecstatic to get Rodgers at 2.18 in a 10 teamer after getting Charles at 1.3.

Panicky about my RB group as a whole - Love Charles and Lacy (4th round) but don't have any other starters (Tate/Helu/A Brown.)

Happy with my WR core (Julio, Welker, Wallace, Britt, Blackmon.)

 

[jdoggydogg]

Panicky about my RB group as a whole - Love Charles and Lacy (4th round) but don't have any other starters (Tate/Helu/A Brown.)

I think you'll get a decent flex player out of either Helu or Brown.

 

[Class Dismissed]

Apparently my team stinks. CBS Fantasy Journalist gave me The Matt Millen Award.

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

Panicking that I chose Larry Fitzgerald and Ray Rice over David Wilson in a keeper. Makes sense on paper this year, but may really regret that decision a year from now.

Betting the farm on both Cam and Russell Wilson, as well as Josh Gordon and Gronk returning to Gronkdom before week 4

 

[Cyclones]

Panicky about my RB group as a whole - Love Charles and Lacy (4th round) but don't have any other starters (Tate/Helu/A Brown.)

I think you'll get a decent flex player out of either Helu or Brown.

Theoretically I can start a WR at flex since its an RB/RB/WR/WR/TE/Flex league. I'm going to need some guys to cover bye weeks and bad matchups though -I'll probably start Tate over Lacy in week 1 since Hou get SDG while GB plays SF.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Apparently my team stinks. CBS Fantasy Journalist gave me The Matt Millen Award.

Heard that pun on ESPN's podcast the other day. Funny.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Panicking that I chose Larry Fitzgerald and Ray Rice over David Wilson in a keeper. Makes sense on paper this year, but may really regret that decision a year from now.

Betting the farm on both Cam and Russell Wilson, as well as Josh Gordon and Gronk returning to Gronkdom before week 4

Nice QBs.

I just traded RGIII for Kaep in a dynasty league. Gotta love watching those types of athletes.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Panicky about my RB group as a whole - Love Charles and Lacy (4th round) but don't have any other starters (Tate/Helu/A Brown.)

I think you'll get a decent flex player out of either Helu or Brown.

Theoretically I can start a WR at flex since its an RB/RB/WR/WR/TE/Flex league. I'm going to need some guys to cover bye weeks and bad matchups though -I'll probably start Tate over Lacy in week 1 since Hou get SDG while GB plays SF.

Maybe so, but I love Lacy this year.

 

[Goldfinger007]

The two players I'm probably most excited about on my roster are Chris Givens and Tavon Austin. Its not so much about either of them individually, but about how they can be utilized collectively in the St. louis offense. At least on paper, this offense should create some very nasty mismatches in the passing game. Givens obviously poses a very legitimate deep threat, which puts pressure on safeties and should give teams pause in bump and run coverage. Assuming Givens demands respect in the secondary and is able to run off coverage, that leaves Austin free to work underneath. Jared Cook even adds further to this element as I doubt many teams can afford to allow him to run free down in the middle of the field. Theoretically at least, that should leave Austin in one on one coverage in an open field and that kid looks about as dangerous as they come in that kind of scenario. If he starts breaking off big plays, and I think he will, that will put tremendous pressure on a defense. Pick your poison.

 

[Pipes]

Bet the farm

David Wilson - early in the David Wilson thread I was telling the Wilson fan boys to be cautious and temper their enthusiam with Brown there. Yet I ended up with him in all 3 of my leagues and all drafts were before last nights news. Not many Giants fans in my leagues

Gronk - Wasn't going to touch him but saw value in 2 of my 3 leagues so snapped him up.

 

[Mr. Know-It-All]

Panic

took Colin McCarthy ahead of Ogletree and Arthur Brown - and not sure if I want to deal with McCarthy's fragility this year. Also have some buyer's remorse on Kenny Britt and Ryan Broyles - picked them up as wr5 and wr6 in a start 3 wr league - but both have injury tendencies so having them as bye week fill-ins may not have been the smartest move.

Other than those 3, this is the best 24 man roster I have had in a long time so if those are my biggest worries I should be okay.

 

[MAC_32]

Now that many of us have drafted for 2013, I'm interested in some post-draft analyses. Which players are you ecstatic to own, and which players do you already regret owning?

Andre Brown. Bought him about 10 minutes before I read about the injury last night. The $ I spent on him cost me a shot at either Harvin or Crabtree at the end of the auction.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Disagree on Gordon. In dynasty I think he's a top 10 type.

In my redraft, I shouldn't have drafted Gronk as high as I did (5.01) and also including Blackmon and Gordon was very risky.

In my dynasty teams...

Drafted this off-season, I "regret" Aaron Hernandez, Santonio Holmes, paid too much in auction for Decker and Foles (a long time ago, thought he had a good chance to start). Happy about Tannehill and Bradford as my QBBC (value), McCoy and as a late flier Gonzalez (before he was coming back). Traded too much to draft Tyler Wilson.

Guys I've owned for a long time but would like to trade: Roddy White, Peyton, Welker, Maclin.

Only rookie I'm more excited about now than I was when drafted is Margus Hunt. May not have done a whole lot yet, but the dude will be beast-mode II.

Gronk was a Steal at 5.01. Capital S.

In dynasty last year I traded Marshall and my 1st for Harvin and San Francisco's D, under the assumption that my first would be quite late. I won the superbowl, so the first became pick 1.10, and I was deep enough at WR that even with Harvin's injuries I was happy enough with the trade... until Cordarrelle Patterson fell all the way to the 1.10 pick. Now I kind of wish I could have that one back again.

I'm also regretting not moving Stewart when I had the chance. Could have gotten Vincent Jackson for him last year, but I was deep at WR and shallow at RB, so I stood pat. This is the first offseason where I'm officially not happy about being stuck with Stewart.

I missed out on Julius Thomas in a TE-heavy dynasty startup because I got too cute. It was a 20 round draft, then we'd have blind binds to get our roster up to 25 for the offseason, and we'd cut back down to 20 when the season started. I wanted Julius Thomas, but I took the Bengals defense, instead, because I figured I could get Thomas for a couple bucks in blind bids. Blind bids were delayed for a couple of weeks, Tamme and Dreessen both got hurt, and Thomas went nuts. He wound up going to someone else for about $250 (out of $1000 blind bid budget). Seriously bad process on my part. Don't get cute with the sleepers you want in an effort to safe $10 bucks in blind bid free agency.

I'm loving Harvin and Crabtree right now. Their injuries dropped their value low enough that I now own them in all four of my dynasty leagues. It's going to suck this year, but if they both come back as strong as I think they will, I think I'm the title favorite in all four leagues next year. Either way, football's going to be a lot more fun to watch once those guys both return the field after Thanksgiving.

I'm thrilled with every league where I was able to capitalize on the MJD panic and grab him in the 3rd, as well as cashing in on the RGIII panic and nabbing him in the 8th or 9th. It was happening all summer long in the mocks I did. Now I wish we could play all of those mocks out. The first staff mock we did this offseason, I got Brees, Griffin, Lynch, Jones-Drew, Marshall, Wallace, Lance Moore, Patterson, Vernon Davis, Jermichael Finley, Julius Thomas (on July 4th, *pats self on back*), the 49ers, and the Bears. I really, really wish we could play that one out.

I'm also very eager to get my first look at Tyler Eifert this season. I'm anxious to see if he lives up to the hype.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

I have pretty much bet the farm on Russell Wilson.

Ticked because I didn't get Gordon.

 

[meyerj31]

Bet the farm

VJax/Bowe - I own one or both of these guys in every league (5+). They were going for way less than guys like Cruz/Cobb/Andre/Roddy in auction drafts and I think they have similar or better production this year.

Trent Richardson - Own him in 4 leagues. I think he has the highest ceiling in any format to finish #1 RB, besides AP, gotten at 80% the cost of AP.

Dez - Own in 3 leagues. Same thought as TRich... he has highest ceiling in any format to finish #1 WR, besides Calvin, gotten at 80% of the cost of Calvin.

Eddie Lacy - Drafted him in the 6th+ in half a dozen of the "draft-only" MFL 50s/10s before the hype the last couple weeks... he could be a huge reason for winning some of those.

Michael Floyd - Never took him higher than the 9th but consistently got him everywhere. If he struggles this season my benches will be struggling.

Panic

VJax/Bow - Because I own them everywhere, if either/both have a less than mid-WR2 season all of my leagues will be terrible.

I'm both happy and worried about them.

Luckily, *knock on wood* I don't have a lot of regret picks. No Pittas, Harvins, Maclins, Andre Browns before their injuries. I made one pretty big mistake in taking Golden Tate while Gordon was still on the board in the 8th round but I'm not too worried about it. I have Gordon in 2 other leagues so if he does well then it will make up for that mistake.