Always have to do the post-mortem. From my original notes:
1.11 Tony Gonzalez, TE KC
My boy! I love having Tony on my team; he's solid, reliable, and fun to watch. His Sweet 16 team is still my favorite Cal basketball team; he totally manhandled Tim Thomas at both ends of the court. He's reached the point of his football career where fantasy players have started to discount and underestimate him in favor of flashy newcomers like Witten. Well, last year in this format Gonzalez was the #3 non-QB in overall scoring, and his situation is virtually unchanged this year. He'll catch a ton of balls and rack up good yardage, and have some TD opportunities as well. I have him projected at 80/950/6, which is relatively conservative and a significant drop from last year; that still puts him at #6 overall on my board, so I'm doubly glad to get him with pick 11. Reggie Wayne was my second choice, with Addai (the top RB) not really worth considering in this scoring.
Result: A+
Tony ended up as the #1 non-QB. He out-scored Wayne by 100 points and Addai by 220. I love Gonzo.
2.06 Chad Johnson, WR CIN
I had a tier of WRs here ranked above a tier of RBs. But none of the WRs were guys I was totally comfortable with. Andre Johnson--injury, Houston, and he's never really performed up to people's expectations of him. Chad/Housh--who will be favored? Holt--will STL be any better? Burress--I've never really liked him. The tier of RBs was Lynch/LJ/Portis, all projected to score 30-50 points less than the WR tier. I originally started with Chad Johnson just ahead of Lynch in my draft list, but on reflection I couldn't really justify taking one of the RBs with all those WR points sitting on the board. Anyway, nittanylion didn't take Chad, so I got my somewhat reluctant first choice.
Result: D
Ocho Cinco basically tied LJ and beat Burress, but lost to the rest of the crew. The real failure here is failure to choose Andre Johnson, who I considered. He was the #2 overall scorer, and would have netted me an additional 190 points; that choice alone was the difference between eighth and fifth place for me. Player evaluation is key.
3.11 Jamal Lewis, RB CLE
The league is getting smarter; there's a lot less competition for mediocre RBs. At this point last year, RBs had been picked clean and there were a ton of great WRs and TEs on the board; now there are some decent RB prospects and some iffy receivers. (I can't believe Dodds has Calvin Johnson projected as the highest scorer of the remaining bunch--even higher than Roy Williams). DVBD has pretty much equalized across WR, RB and QB. I didn't seriously consider either of the Detroit WRs or Owen Daniels (top TE, similar DVBD); I gave some consideration to PHI QB, who I have projected significantly higher than Dodds. But in the end it looked like time to get an anchor RB. Lewis is unexciting but is an undisputed starter who'll get a bunch of carries; he should be a solid producer.
Result: F
Lewis actually outscored Ocho Cinco, but I whiffed badly on Calvin Johnson here and cost myself another 140 points. Owen Daniels would have been another 100 points, and the PHI QB wound up #5 overall. I avoided Roy Williams at this point, but other than that made about the worst pick I could have. Brandon Jacobs would have been a reasonable RB choice to work out better (+70 points).
4.06 Roy Williams, WR DET
Detroit may suck, but I still see Roy as the #1 WR there, and he should be a bargain as the #18 WR overall. Talent plus opportunity should make it easy for him to meet that expectation, and there are real possibilities for a top-10 finish if he stays healthy. Kitna is not a bad QB. Other possibilities were Dwayne Bowe (I'm not convinced, plus I don't want to double up on KC players) and Edgerrin James, who is more or less equivalent in VBD/DVBD to Williams. I haven't seen any sign that Arizona's run blocking will be any better, so I'll stick with the WR here. There should be other RB possibilities later; I'll be hoping to target Willie Parker or Selvin Young with my next pick.
Result: F
Now I failed to avoid Roy Williams. Perhaps I couldn't have predicted how it went down, but this obviously was a huge whiff. Another 140 points available by picking Bowe instead.
5.11 Ronnie Brown, RB MIA
Incredibly, we're over 70 picks into the draft and only 20 RBs have been selected. Some drafts hit this point by the 24th pick. There are a few decent WR prospects like Driver, Coles (taken the pick before me), Roddy White, or Chambers, but none of them really shouts to me as an obvious choice. The focus on QBs, WRs and TEs has left a number of pretty solid RB prospects on the board, and it's just a question of whose story you believe. In terms of stats, I have Ronnie Brown at the top of my board by VBD and DVBD; the question, of course, is his knee, which is why he's lasted so long. But at pick 75 he has to represent value, with tremendous upside. (His ADP is pick #26!) My other favorites here were Driver (who I might get a shot at with my next pick) Willie Parker, Selvin Young, and Michael Turner. I expect that we're about to see an RB run, so I think all the backs will be gone by my next pick.
Result: A
My fifth-round pick outscored picks in rounds 2, 3, and 4. He finished as the #13 RB; a very good performance. The perfect selection here would have been Michael Turner, but I'll take 196 points out of a fifth-round RB any day.
6.06 Donald Driver, WR GB
Boy, I was right with that RB run prediction; 5 RBs in a row after my pick. Rudi Johnson at 6.03 was the last of the solid RB starters; the value remaining is much more marginal. The run left a lot more value at WR, with a bunch of good WRs in passing offenses still on the board. My favorite here is Driver, who I think is being overlooked this year; I have him projected fairly modestly, 80/1000/5, and he's still been sitting near the top of my board for two rounds now. The one game Rodgers started last year, Driver got 10 targets and was 7/66, so there's no reason to expect that Rodgers will favor the other receivers. In other news, defenses are starting to creep onto the DVBD list; I pretty much ignore defensive stat predictions, so I won't be taking one soon, but I expect we'll see the first one go before the end of round 7. I'm hoping that people concentrate on RBs for a little longer to start to bring QB value back up. Vince Young and Aaron Rodgers are the top two QBs on my board, and they might last for a bit; I'll see where the board is at 7.11, but I expect it'll be 8.06 before I seriously consider a QB.
Result: B
Driver finished as the #25 WR, a solid but not game-changing performance. Roddy White (+90) was taken the pick after, but I hadn't really considered him, and I'm comfortable with the choice of Driver here, given what we knew at the time.
7.11 Julius Jones, RB SEA
It's probably a good sign that I started a run two rounds in a row; this time it was WRs flying off the board after I chose Driver. The run has beaten WR value down, so as it approaches my pick, the positions are closer to equivalent, with a tier of RBs I have projected within a point of each other leading the pack (Forte, Fred Taylor, Kevin Smith, Julius Jones). I'll always choose a clear starter over a questionable situation, so of this pack I would have preferred Smith, but Forte and Smith went a few picks before me. I don't like Taylor's age or his situation, so I went with Julius Jones, whose situation also sucks, but includes some real upside possibilities. If he gets 200+ carries, he'll be good value here. I also considered Vince Young, who's still out there, but the value isn't there yet. Of the five people selecting before my next pick, two already have 2 QBs and three have one QB already; I'm hoping someone starts a D run and Young hangs around. On the WR side, I considered Reggie Brown, who is near the end of a tier, but with Kevin Curtis in Philly, as well as Desean Jackson pressuring him, he wasn't worth a stretch.
Result: C-
Jones ended as the #50 RB. Best would have been Chester Taylor (+40)
8.06 Ten TMQB (Vince Young) QB TEN
With the draft going very slowly at the turn, I had a lot of time to second-guess my last pick. The only guy I had on my pre-draft list for 8.06 was Vince Young; I have him as the #13 QB overall, and there 20 QBs off the board. My logic in passing on him at 7.11 was that I didn't think the guys at the turn were likely to take him, but I did some sweating waiting for it to come back around. radballs had me worried, but he went TE/RB, and once Biabreakable chose Kitna/DET instead I knew I was fine; Hook had too much need in other areas to take another QB. So I wound up with my guy, who I think people are underrating. His fantasy stats weren't great last year, but most of his NFL stats headed in the right direction, with the exception of TDs. I think the TDs will come; if he winds up with 20+ combined TDs he'll be a huge bargain at this spot. I'll probably hang back on QB for a while now and maybe target KC later. My other option here was Reggie Brown, but I still don't like his situation. It does look like WRs are boiling up to be the best values, so I'm guessing I'll be taking someone like Ted Ginn, Vincent Jackson, Mark Clayton, or Reggie Williams with my next pick.
Result: D
Another whiff on player evaluation. Now, I am not going to call this an F, because I don't think I could have predicted the switch to Kerry Collins and how conservative the team became. The winner choice really would have been KC TMQB (+100); I doubt anyone really expected that.
9.11 Ted Ginn WR MIA
Ginn was actually my favorite of the WRs in this tier, so I'm glad to get him. Miami's passing offense will suck, but it seems obvious that Ginn will be the #1 WR there, and he showed some flashes of talent last year. If he catches 70 balls this will be a big win here. Overall, the pickings are getting pretty slim; I must have been hallucinating, because I thought I just saw someone draft Ricky Williams. Before long it might be time to actually take a defense or something like that. I'm starting to worry about QB; I'm a bit surprised that KC went already. Of what's left, I'm probably comfortable with either Baltimore or Oakland, and one of those is likely to be left to the end, so I might just sit on QB at this point. Depends on whether people grab one of those two soon. It's pretty dang early to be running out of QBs.
Result: B
Ginn finished as WR#33, and definitely represented value here. There was no one taken within a round who I would rather have had.
10.06 Jerious Norwood RB ATL
We're running out of interesting positional players; at this pick I had only Norwood and a kicker in my pre-draft list. (Defenses are insufficiently differentiated--I can wait). I'd also considered Ray Rice, but that's really an ambulance-chasing pick (and he didn't exactly light it up in his first preseason game). Norwood won't be a starter unless Turner gets injured, but he had almost 900 total yards last year as a spot player, and his 1 TD was an anomaly. He should get 100 carries and another 30 receptions, which should equate to at least 800 yards. He's the top of the list of backup RBs with scoring potential. The top non-RB prospect was Ernest Wilford, who I don't want to double up with Ginn. We're nearly out of legit NFL starting WRs. There's a long way to go until my next pick; I expect I'll wind up with a defense or kicker unless there's QB pressure--at QB, the two I want to avoid are Atlanta and Miami. At TE I'll probably target Leonard Pope a few rounds later, but at this level they're all pretty much identical.
Result: B
Norwood finished as RB#39, a solid performance down here.
11.11 Nick Folk K DAL
The QB situation is in equilibrium; there are two left who I'd be OK with (MIA and BAL), and two who I really want to avoid (CHI and ATL). There's only one guy picking between my next two picks, so there's no reason for me to take a QB now. The TEs are all equivalent. I've already got four RBs so no sense chasing crap value at RB46+. That leaves prospect WRs, D and K. My favorite WR down here is James Jones, but I don't want to double up with Driver. I also like Justin McCareins, who I would like to double up with Young, but I can get him late. There's nothing compelling there, so I'm looking at K and D. Nick Folk is at the top of my K board; the playoff prospects of Ks and Ds matter more than other positions, because you know they'll play even in week 16/17. Dallas should be a playoff team scoring a lot of points, and Folk kicked well. My top D is the Raiduhs, led by my man Nnamdi Asomugha, but I think I can get the Raiders later, and they're not a playoff team, I really don't see a lot of other interesting things to choose from.
Result: C
Folk wound up as the #23 kicker, mostly due to circumstance. That's the way kickers go. The #7 kicker was only 30 points more, so there's not much differentiation anyway. I probably should have waited, although none of the positional players I was targeting did much, either. Kevin Walter would have been the best pick, but I think that's result merchanting.
12.06 Drew Bennett WR STL
Not much has changed since my last pick, except James Jones went off the list. I'm glad to still have a solid starting WR at this point. St. Louis isn't what it once was, but Bulger is a good QB and Bennett has the potential for some big games. He has to be value at WR63. I also considered Nate Kaeding, who actually topped my DVBD list, but Bennett is differentiated more from the WRs remaining than Kaeding is from the Ks remaining. Oakland D is at the tops of my D list, but they should still be there in a round or two. It's unlikely that both Anarchy and joffer will take QBs this round, so I should be safe passing on QB.
Result: I
Could have been OK, but got injured. It happens.
13.11 Deion Branch WR SEA
Defenses started flying off the board, so I was sweating waiting for my pick; I have Oakland as the last remaining defense in its tier, with a sizeable dropoff to the next tier. Unfortunately they got taken two picks before me, so I was stuck for a pick; I don't see much difference between the Ds available, and for K I'd rather wait a round or two for Longwell anyway. I started looking at the available players and realized that Branch was still out there. In this format, I like shooting for a guy like Branch way down here; he may be ready for game 1, and even if not, should be significantly productive when he comes back, especially with Engram out. To have even an outside possibility of 1000 yards down here at WR70 should be pretty good value. That fills my flex; I just need a TE now.
Result: C
He actually finished as WR71; par value. I should have taken Longwell, who finished as K#3. That could have been a 160-point swing.
14.06 Vishante Shiancoe TE MIN
I was annoyed to see Leonard Pope go; I would have considered him here. And then I was positively peeved to see Longwell go; I always want Longwell on my team as a token Golden Bear, but there was no way I was ready to take him as the #6 kicker off the board, not with that crappy offense. With Pope gone, I started to look at the rest of the TEs, and saw that Shiancoe was probably the best positioned of them (with the possible exception of Alex Smith, but he's from Stanford.) Ds are undifferentiated, there are a ton of kickers, and my QBs are still on the board, so I went with the TE. It's definitely looking like I'll be taking a D in the last round, maybe the last two rounds depending on what happens with QBs.
Result: A
I got lucky with this one, as he finished as the #12 TE and the last of the top tier (outscored #13 by 20+ points).
15.11 Mike Nugent K NYJ
A bunch of kickers flew off the boards this round. Kickers at this level are not very interesting, but the important thing is that you get a kicker who is going to have the job all year. It doesn't matter whether he scores 90 or 100 points, just that he doesn't score zero. So I like taking my second kicker before I'm choosing between questionable situations, like Grammatica in NO or Tynes in NY. Nugent is a solid kicker on an offense that should be better this year.
Result: I
This was annoying--a season-ending kicker injury? Feely didn't exactly blow everyone away, but he did score 115 points I could have used. I was right not to wait on the NO and NYG situations, at least.
16.06 Miami TMQB (Pennington) QB MIA
In a 16-team total points league, when choosing between otherwise equivalent players, choose the one with the highest variance. I already have Ginn, so this pick increases my variance. Pennington is a lot better than anything this team had at QB last year, so I'm optimistic that they'll both be successful relative to their draft positions. All the defenses left are crap, so I figured I might as well leave them for my last two picks; I don't think Pennington would have lasted to 17.11. I think that Baltimore would score more if Boller were to start all year, but I have a feeling they're going to pull Boller for one of the younger guys, who is likely to suck.
Result: B+
Finding the #14 TMQB down here was a pretty big win. The Ravens, Bears, and Falcons weren't bad, either, but I did choose the best one remaining.
17.11 Cincinatti D DEF CIN
It's a defense. It has a token Cal player (Deltha O'Neal) and they'll get some turnovers.
Result: B
They finished as #19.
18.06 Atlanta D DEF ATL
It's a defense. It will likely suck, but what do you want in the 18th round?
Result: C
They finished as #23. The Dolphins D, my other choice, finished #10 (+56)
Overall: C
I did great in round 1 and quite well in the second half of the draft. I lost the league in rounds 2-8, when I whiffed on five picks out of seven. Those were mostly player-evaluation whiffs, rather than injuries. If I made better choices in three out of those five rounds, I could have won the league. (For example, I plausibly could have had Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, and Dwayne Bowe instead of Chad Johnson, Jamal Lewis, and Roy Williams).
In a frozen-roster format, you have to come out of the gate with a solid lineup. I made some good choices but some bad choices, and wound up sitting in the middle of the pack all year.
One thing to note is that I stocked up on Miami Dolphins. I think they were dropping partly because people overrate the value of preseason playoff prospects. If you'd told Yudkin that his stable of Patriots would be sitting home while my Dolphins were getting postseason points, he'd have had you committed. But the NFL is unpredictable, so don't put too much stock in it.
Looking forward to making better selections next year!
This has got to be my worst draft EVER...Eagles, Philadelphia PHI TMQB -- continues his hot/cold play -- not very consistent -- not worth the high pick
Edited to make this readable since the number of quotes has been restricted since it was posted.
