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Andre Ellington - RB - Clemson. (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Eminence
- Start date
Khy
Footballguy
This is my fear. I feel like it's very rare that a back adds 10lbs and gets better. Usually it's when they lose 10 (ala Marshawn Lynch). Most backs add 10lbs and lose their quickness by a step. And it ruins them.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Arians doesn't run the ball that often. Over the last 2 seasons with Indy/Arz as HC/OC his offenses have averaged about 430 rushes. However, if Ellington gets say 60% of that or #1 RB carries that puts him in the 255-260 range. Add in 35-45 catches and you have a 300 touch RB. If you don't like his talent, so be it. The opportunity though appears it will be there for him.
Banger
Footballguy
based on what? the team saw what he did last year and have basically gone all in on him. Other than your gut what makes you say he's a fluke?
Khy
Footballguy
Yeah, not sure I completely understand this post, or posts like these in general. At least state some actual reasoning and constructive thoughts behind why you feel this is the case. Otherwise, posts like this just sound like you're fishing for an argument for no reason.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
I wouldn't trust everything Arians says. He's really changed my opinion of him since his days in Pittsburgh and I think he's a good coach. That being said he hasn't always been partial to the run. Michael Floyd is coming into his own, he added John Brown, John Carlson, Troy Niklas and Jon Dwyer. I think he'll be content to limit Ellington, especially if he shows any signs at all of getting dinged or wearing down. I think his rhetoric is to try and aid Ellington to be in the best shape he can possibly be and while I expect him to start and possibly be a good #2/3 RB especially in PPR I think Taylor will get his share of carries. I don't think Dwyer will cut in but he does have history and was once thought of a long time ago as a talented big back who slipped in the draft due to immaturity issues and weight issues.
Edit to add: I have to say though after looking at Mendy's carries last year, if Ellington got 220 carries and caught 50/60 balls he may have a lot more value than I am speculating.
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Banger
Footballguy
Personally, I don't care if he runs it or catches it. My reading of the situation is that the temperature has shifted from last year to this year. Last year (rookie year) they brought him along slowly and kept him in a box touch wise...that sentiment certainly seems to have shifted this season. Sure you can discount it as coach speak and maybe you'll be right but my take on the situation is that they are building the offense around him (and have said as much). Dwyer stinks and he's just a guy and in terms of backups I'd much rather have a guy like him behind him as opposed to a new draft pick looking to make a name for himself. Dwyer is going the other way and may not have a job after this year.
He clearly showed he had explosive ability last year in limited touches and his value was largely held down by his limited touch count. They cleared the biggest obstacle in Mendy and now you have the coach saying "we're building the offense around him", "we want him to get 25-30 touches/game" and they don't really add anyone either through the draft or free agency that is a legit threat and I always like having the RB on a team with a great defense. Really the only thing that I don't like is that KILLER division he's in. Sure there's some uncertainty but to me the stars are aligning and I'd much rather buy him at his floor with a realistic shot at some good upside.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
I swear to God.
Some of you guys act as though a player has no value if they aren't a RB1/WR1. I drafted this guy at 3.10 in a 16 team IDP league with little expectation for meaningful production last year. He ended up as a viable lower RB2/flex option in his rookie year. Now it looks like he'll be AZ's best option out of the backfield. Yet we've still got people knocking him completely.
He won't be a RB1 - at least I am not seeing it. That doesn't mean he doesn't have FF value. I'll take it right now. He's already more proven than any of the rookies.
Some of you guys act as though a player has no value if they aren't a RB1/WR1. I drafted this guy at 3.10 in a 16 team IDP league with little expectation for meaningful production last year. He ended up as a viable lower RB2/flex option in his rookie year. Now it looks like he'll be AZ's best option out of the backfield. Yet we've still got people knocking him completely.
He won't be a RB1 - at least I am not seeing it. That doesn't mean he doesn't have FF value. I'll take it right now. He's already more proven than any of the rookies.
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
Anyone else a tad worried that this has Daryl Richardson written all over it. Prior to last year St. Louis let SJax walk, and Richardson had a very nice rookie year. 98 carries for 475 yards and added 24 receptions for 116 yards. He looked quick and shifty for a smaller back and St. Louis did nothing to address their RB situation behind Richardson entering last year. All they did was draft someone late as a back up named Stacy in the 5th round. There were many concerned about Richardson's size and he added some bulk to get bigger for a bigger work load as he wanted to prove that he could be an every down back. Well Richardson is now not even a member of the Rams.
Cue up Arizona situation. You have Ellington a smaller back that had a good rookie year and looks shifty and quick with 117 carries for 652 yards and 39 catches for 271 yards looks poised to breakout. I mean he has added bulk for a larger role and the Cardinals did nothing to address their RB situation behind him. Except last year they drafted Stepfan Taylor in you guessed it the 5th round. Taylor like Stacy is/was said to be unspectacular even though Stepfan Taylor had a very nice college career.
While a lot of people are going all in on Ellignton you may be able to get Taylor for late and it may end up being the better play. Just some food for thought.
Cue up Arizona situation. You have Ellington a smaller back that had a good rookie year and looks shifty and quick with 117 carries for 652 yards and 39 catches for 271 yards looks poised to breakout. I mean he has added bulk for a larger role and the Cardinals did nothing to address their RB situation behind him. Except last year they drafted Stepfan Taylor in you guessed it the 5th round. Taylor like Stacy is/was said to be unspectacular even though Stepfan Taylor had a very nice college career.
While a lot of people are going all in on Ellignton you may be able to get Taylor for late and it may end up being the better play. Just some food for thought.
Richardson was used as an outside the tackles scat back. Not sure what they were thinking making him the starter and trying to use him as a between the tackles fulltimer.
Ellington's game is better rounded. Check out his power, vision when running inside. Also take note of his nose for the chains:
http://m.youtube.com/?#/watch?v=94fEYBJSGv4
Ellington's game is better rounded. Check out his power, vision when running inside. Also take note of his nose for the chains:
http://m.youtube.com/?#/watch?v=94fEYBJSGv4
Ditka Butkus
Footballguy
cloppbeast
Footballguy
He makes a lot of guys miss. Hopefully the extra weight won't take away some of his elusiveness.
Banger
Footballguy
I'll speak for myself and state that I'm not worried about that....I have gotten bit by 2nd year RBs and their upside ascent on occassions in the past and if he gets too pricey I might look for cheaper alternatives but as it stands now I'm still drinking the cool aid.
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
I guess I'll differ on Taylor's ability. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if his rookie contract was the only one he'd sign. I see the guy as just a plodder - and a poor one at that.
Ditka Butkus
Footballguy
That's better......I like how he doesn't seem to take big shots.. Gets what he can and ducks out of bounds or goes to the ground....Looking forward to 2014.
Banger
Footballguy
he's very slippery. I like how on a number of those runs he seems to be bottled up and just explodes through the line running through a little crease.
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
I actually like what I see in that video. In redraft, if he's there at the 3/4 turn I'll probably bite. I've seen him going mid 3rd round so far.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
He impressed me as well, by earning most of his yardage on his own. It's easy to see why he averaged so much greater yardage per carry than Mendenhall. However much I like Ellington, he still has some questions. He only succeeded on a very small sample size. I would expect to get a more reliable player in the 3rd/4th round.LittlePhatty said:
I don't think Ellington will require so much investment. I would think he'd go around the same slot as Daryl Richardson last season - if memory serves, about the 7th round. I love him at that spot - not so much in the 3rd.
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jdoggydogg
Footballguy
No one's going to get Ellington in the 7th round - even in a casual league. Ellington is going to get hyped as a sleeper all summer, and he'll go in the 3rd or 4th rounds in most drafts.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I thought Ellington would get the Daryl Richardson treatment. According to ya'll he's getting David Wilson hype instead.
It seems odd though, considering Ellington's (lack of) draft pedigree.
It seems odd though, considering Ellington's (lack of) draft pedigree.
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Bronco Billy
Footballguy
I don't see anyone advocating RB1 status with elite upside for Ellington like we did for Wilson. Discussing his being available in the third and slipping to the 4th isn't close to Wilson's projected ADP prior to his injury.
Where did this Daryl Richardson comparison come from? Because they were drafted late are similar in size??? Come on.
Daryl Richardson is horrible.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
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cloppbeast
Footballguy
seriously? What does draft pedigree have to do with on field performance?
Probably 3rd rd if i had to guess with the owners willing to gamble taking him in the 2nd. And by the time August rolls around, i think Ellington will be in that same thought. He's got no competition to boot. In my eyes, he's a lock 3rd rd pick at this very moment. Barring an injury, his stock should only go higher..12 team leagues im talking here. I dont see how he lasts until the 4th rd, just dont see it.
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Bronco Billy
Footballguy
That wasn't my position. My position was that there was promotion for Wilson being a RB1. Do you disagree with that?Edited - I did mention ADP. Let me go research
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Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
Depends. For me it shows that the rest of the league didnt think enough of a 25 year old rookie to pick him in the top 186 picks. Is that the end all be all? No but a piece.
The turn-offs for me would be age, size (You dont see many his age and his size just show up out of the blue), Team (seems like Zona hasnt had a RB in forever/ OL always sucks) and division...Seattle and SF were some of the best against RB;s and I expect STL to be better.
He's a RB I'd like for my bench but probably wont be able to have him there.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
At the risk of quoting myself. Wilson's ADP just prior to the start of last season was RB17 in 12 team ppr redrafts, about mid 3rd round.
That being said, I still maintain that there isn't near the hyperbole with Ellington that some had for Wilson.
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Part of the reason he fell in the draft was he ran a 4.7 forty. Apparently he pulled his hammy at some point and it ruined his time. I'd say that time is basically irrelevant given the speed he plays at. Him being a 24 yo rookie is curious however, I wonder what the story is there?
cloppbeast
Footballguy
This convo has gone awry.
I brought up Wilson and Richardson solely for the purposes for determining ADP. Just with regards to comparing fantasy perception of the masses.
At first I compared Ellington's situation with Richardson's last season. Because I would think public perception would be similar. They both are late round running backs with an opportunity to start. And both came off a productive rookie season on a small sample size. Richardson was gotten in the 7th round of re-draft leagues last year.
Everybody told me I was crazy. They said Ellington is a re-draft 2nd/3rd. That's when I brought up David Wilson, because of his re-draft ADP last season - 2nd/3rd.
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cloppbeast
Footballguy
Posters aren't really shouting from the roof tops for Ellington like Wilson; and Ellington has more nay sayers. That's kind of why I thought he'd have a lower ADP.
Opportunity is only 1/2 the battle. Just because his role this yr is similar to what people thought of Richardson's last year, doesnt mean their draft value has to be relative. Ellington last year showed star potential, had fantasy owners begging for more touches. He was electric almost every time he touched the ball. Richardson in 2012, had 120+ touches didnt even score a td. And if u watched him play, he brought very little to the table. Opportunity was about the only thing going for him as he doesnt do anything really well...So really outside of 'similar' roles even though D-Rich's role was still less defined (if you want to be accurate), there isnt that much similar between the 2. D-Rich is a 7th rd pick who performs like one, Ellington on the other hand, is an absolute steal in the 6th.
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cloppbeast
Footballguy
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cloppbeast
Footballguy
Maybe I'm guilty of not factoring in some of the qualitative aspects between Ellington and Richardson, mainly because people rarely agree. Just because you can see a major difference between them doesn't mean the fantasy community will. I'm sure some fantasy players even liked what they saw from Richardson. I remember a lukewarm review from Evan Silva, for what it's worth.
You definitely could be right though, even likely correct. I know Ellington enticed me with his running a lot more than Richardson.
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Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Yeah, I understand where you are going with this. I guess I see Ellington somewhere in the middle between Richardson & Wilson. I think he's much more talented than Richardson, that Taylor isn't really a threat, and that AZ will limit his touches to somewhere around 16 to 18 a game, leaning closer to the 16 average. Solid RB2 territory, but I'd be surprised if he flirted anywhere near a legit RB1
I know what my eyes see and i think its fairly obvious for anyone to see Ellingtons' big-play ability. Guys like Spiller/Charles/Mccoy, u can see it pretty easily. Im not putting Ellington in their class but he has that same gamebreaking ability. Watching D-Rich and for people drafting, he was clearly one of those "Ugh, i guess ill take Richardson - He's starting right?" players. Come on, no one was pumped up taking him, nor should they have been
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
You're letting last year shade your memory of Richardson as a rookie -- he averaged 4.8 on almost 100 carries in 2012 and looked pretty dynamic doing it. Richardson is a MUCH better comp for Ellington than are Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy.
No. Not really. 4.8 vs 5.5 ypc is a world of difference. 5.5 is Spiller/Charles/Mccoy territory. And Richardson didnt look anything close to dynamic to me. He had a quick first step and fell to the ground the second his laces were touched. He was nowhere near as explosive in his rookie year, as what we saw from Ellington last year.
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Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
I think Ellington is going to be over drafted. He is a decent enough player that will struggle to finish as a top 24 fantasy RB by seasons end. People willd draft him thinking they are getting a very good RB2 that could surprise and be a RB1, but I just don't see that happening and will pass on him at the will be high price tag.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
When Ellington can maintain that effectiveness over a multi-year span in a non-COP role you can go ahead and compare him to Charles and McCoy. Tons of small quick guys look great on < 8 carries / game.
