Andre Ellington - RB - Clemson. (1 Viewer)

[FantasyTrader]

Arians is incompetent

NFL coach of the year last year -- and he doesn't care about your fantasy team.

Nor winning.

Or maybe, you know, Ellington actually is best suited to the role they have him playing?

Or not. We can do this and not accomplish anything.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I wanted Ellington real bad but perhaps it's better that Zac Stacy fell to me this week. Ellington is only a PPR flex unless/until Mendenhall gets hurt.

I've been able to pick up both in my keep 5 league....pretty excited for the future.

you think Stacy and Ellington are worthwhile keepers? I don't think they are even close right now unless they show us something more. I assume 12 team league so 60 keepers, don't think either is there right now

You may be right, but it is always roster dependent.

The team I have them on is 1-5 and pretty bad right now in a RB heavy league. I have had MJD, Roddy White, and Jennings for years and they on their last legs. Colston too. Not much established to speak to on the rest of the roster either outside of Reggie.

I think both Stacy and Ellington have shown good talent so far. Stacy already seems to have the Rams job and I think Ellington is talented enough to get the Arizona one by next year. Young starting RBs would be worth keeping going into next year.

That'll sound good right up until both teams draft RBs in the 2nd - 4th next year or sign Ben Tate or anyone else.

 

[FantasyTrader]

Mendy is the play at AZ RB

No one in AZ is the play until they fix their horrendous offensive line. And that includes all positions.

Now this I agree with completely.

 

[Slapdash]

Arians is incompetent why would they get Ellington is space with short passes... just have palmer drop back get sacked, run mendy for 1 yard and then punt... wash and repeat.

Lol, yeah darn Arians for drafting this cat in the 6th Round! Where every other coach passed on him at least 5 times previously.

He has shown enough to deserve more than a third of Mendy's touches. He is electric and they need to get the ball in his hands. Doesn't matter where he was drafted.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Arians is incompetent

NFL coach of the year last year -- and he doesn't care about your fantasy team.

Nor winning.

Or maybe, you know, Ellington actually is best suited to the role they have him playing?

Or not. We can do this and not accomplish anything.

So it's reasonable to go with the assumption that the 2012 NFL Coach of the Year is either incompetent or isn't trying to win games. Got it.

 

[Khy]

Guys. This is an undersized 6th Rounder! What the #### were you expecting? His value comes from his ability to catch passes and he's got pretty big hurdle in Rashard Mendenhall to overcome.

He might get some touches in the passing game, a few draws. But when Arizona is trying to establish the run, set-up playaction, etc. Why would you expect Ellington to be in the game? They're gonna somehow pound it with a 200lb Runningback?

C'mon fellas.

No place for logic in this thread -- chug some Kool Aid or GTFO.

I'm really getting sick and tired of this "undersized" argument people keep throwing around with RBs. Ellington has the EXACT same physical build as Jamaal Charles and CJ?K. Please, tell me again how those two could never handle the load? I'll be waiting. And before you go quoting 40 times. Ellington pulled a hammy on the last 10 yards of his combine 40. Which is why he ran a 4.61. He's more of a 4.4 to 4.5 guy in reality.

I'm not saying he's the next big thing. But please stop using this completely obnoxious and irrelevant argument with RBs. It's ridiculous and holds no ground at all.

 

[renesauz]

Was hoping to see more of this kid tonight, but the Seattle Defense has clearly over-whelmed them....barely over 100 yards as a team in the late 3rd qtr

 

[Slapdash]

I wanted Ellington real bad but perhaps it's better that Zac Stacy fell to me this week. Ellington is only a PPR flex unless/until Mendenhall gets hurt.

I've been able to pick up both in my keep 5 league....pretty excited for the future.

you think Stacy and Ellington are worthwhile keepers? I don't think they are even close right now unless they show us something more. I assume 12 team league so 60 keepers, don't think either is there right now

You may be right, but it is always roster dependent.

The team I have them on is 1-5 and pretty bad right now in a RB heavy league. I have had MJD, Roddy White, and Jennings for years and they on their last legs. Colston too. Not much established to speak to on the rest of the roster either outside of Reggie.

I think both Stacy and Ellington have shown good talent so far. Stacy already seems to have the Rams job and I think Ellington is talented enough to get the Arizona one by next year. Young starting RBs would be worth keeping going into next year.

That'll sound good right up until both teams draft RBs in the 2nd - 4th next year or sign Ben Tate or anyone else.

Sure, that is why my statement is conditional. Both teams have done plenty of RB drafting the last few years already though. FF is talent plus opportunity. I see their talent, we'll see how long the window of opportunity is.

 

[FantasyTrader]

Arians is incompetent

NFL coach of the year last year -- and he doesn't care about your fantasy team.

Nor winning.

Or maybe, you know, Ellington actually is best suited to the role they have him playing?

Or not. We can do this and not accomplish anything.

So it's reasonable to go with the assumption that the 2012 NFL Coach of the Year is either incompetent or isn't trying to win games. Got it.

As reasonable as it is that the RB who is twice as productive as the starter should get half the snaps.

 

[T with T]

ya how could we expect a 200 lb runningback to have more then 7 carries guys???? it doesn't happen in the nfl on planet earth.... maybe on jupiter it does.

 

[FantasyTrader]

Guys. This is an undersized 6th Rounder! What the #### were you expecting? His value comes from his ability to catch passes and he's got pretty big hurdle in Rashard Mendenhall to overcome.

He might get some touches in the passing game, a few draws. But when Arizona is trying to establish the run, set-up playaction, etc. Why would you expect Ellington to be in the game? They're gonna somehow pound it with a 200lb Runningback?

C'mon fellas.

No place for logic in this thread -- chug some Kool Aid or GTFO.

I'm really getting sick and tired of this "undersized" argument people keep throwing around with RBs. Ellington has the EXACT same physical build as Jamaal Charles and CJ?K. Please, tell me again how those two could never handle the load? I'll be waiting.And before you go quoting 40 times. Ellington pulled a hammy on the last 10 yards of his combine 40. Which is why he ran a 4.61. He's more of a 4.4 to 4.5 guy in reality.

I'm not saying he's the next big thing. But please stop using this completely obnoxious and irrelevant argument with RBs. It's ridiculous and holds no ground at all.

I completely agree, he is NOT undersized. He's short...but his lower body is as thick.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Arians is incompetent

NFL coach of the year last year -- and he doesn't care about your fantasy team.

Nor winning.

Or maybe, you know, Ellington actually is best suited to the role they have him playing?

Or not. We can do this and not accomplish anything.

So it's reasonable to go with the assumption that the 2012 NFL Coach of the Year is either incompetent or isn't trying to win games. Got it.

As reasonable as it is that the RB who is twice as productive as the starter should get half the snaps.

You should probably forward your résumé to the Bidwell family as you obviously are more than qualified to run their franchise. Ellington = Jamaal Charles = wins. It's just that effing simple.

 

[T with T]

couer your a hater so #### and go sit in your room.

 

[johnnyboy8102]

Would have loved for him to reel in that red zone target a few minutes ago.

 

[T with T]

Would have loved for him to reel in that red zone target a few minutes ago.

He would have if Palmer could throw a half way decent ball.... Did you see how high he threw it and the guy was wide open... ######ed.

 

[T with T]

first and goal bring back mendy LOL idiots.

 

[johnnyboy8102]

Another red zone target. Now we are just getting teased.

 

[T with T]

This is making me so mad I want to scream and throw things.................................

 

[FantasyTrader]

Arians is incompetent

NFL coach of the year last year -- and he doesn't care about your fantasy team.

Nor winning.

Or maybe, you know, Ellington actually is best suited to the role they have him playing?

Or not. We can do this and not accomplish anything.

So it's reasonable to go with the assumption that the 2012 NFL Coach of the Year is either incompetent or isn't trying to win games. Got it.

As reasonable as it is that the RB who is twice as productive as the starter should get half the snaps.

You should probably forward your résumé to the Bidwell family as you obviously are more than qualified to run their franchise. Ellington = Jamaal Charles = wins. It's just that effing simple.

Again CdL, in case you're a slow learner, I've never once compared Ellington to Charles in this thread. Just refuting your poor analy...well no. You haven't really analyzed anything in this thread. You've talked about how everybody is wrong because Ellington isn't a 3-down back despite any evidence that he can't. You're obviously impressed with Arians...a RB in the NFL isn't anything until he's done it for a long period of time...at which point there's no value to be had in buying him.

 

[Bobby Guano]

Palmer is bad at throwing footballs.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

couer your a hater so #### and go sit in your room.

You need to spend less time on FF and more on basic English. Thought you would have learned your lesson after David Wilson, guess not.

 

[LuckyOne]

ya how could we expect a 200 lb runningback to have more then 7 carries guys???? it doesn't happen in the nfl on planet earth.... maybe on jupiter it does.

He would weigh nearly 500 lbs on Jupiter. He clearly needs to move.

 

[T with T]

couer your a hater so #### and go sit in your room.

You need to spend less time on FF and more on basic English. Thought you would have learned your lesson after David Wilson, guess not.

am I wrong about Dwilson definitively idiot? Looks like he got hurt and he is still a young player so I wouldn't say I was wrong about Dwilson yet Couer.

 

[Banger]

waffling back and forth between him and Chris Johnson...both options stink...I've switched it 3 times today.

why do both options stink??? Ellington could be awesome and produce a ton if the coach gives him 15 touches/game from here on out... I don't know what the hell the problem is, it isn't rocket science.... Im thinking he gets more and more carries as the year wears on and will be a focal point in the passing attack... I like Ellington over CJ1k.

You don't know what the problem is? It's that he still hasn't had 15 touches in ANY game, let alone average that over multiple games. So actually it is rocket science when you don't know how heavily he'll be involved. And don't get me wrong, I'm on your side - he should be getting more carries. But let's not pretend he's not a risky fantasy start at this juncture.

Ended up going cj. Love the ways Ellington is used in the offense but it was the ridiculous opponent that caused me to bench Ellington. He's right about to get his breakout game.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

couer your a hater so #### and go sit in your room.

You need to spend less time on FF and more on basic English. Thought you would have learned your lesson after David Wilson, guess not.

am I wrong about Dwilson definitively idiot? Looks like he got hurt and he is still a young player so I wouldn't say I was wrong about Dwilson yet Couer.

It makes me laugh when someone who can't master basic sentence structure and grammar calls other people idiots. Have you never wondered why you get blasted by every intelligent person in every thread you post in?And yes, you were absolutely, definitively dead wrong every single week you guaranteed "this is the week" with Wilson, just like you were this week with Ellington. You're not great at this FF thing.

 

[johnnyboy8102]

It's awesome that Alphonso Smith is getting all the garbage time check downs.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

drop ellington for smith?

 

[Insein]

It's awesome that Alphonso Smith is getting all the garbage time check downs.

Its ridiculous. They can't say its for pass protection because there is none.

 

[johnnyboy8102]

It's awesome that Alphonso Smith is getting all the garbage time check downs.

Its ridiculous. They can't say its for pass protection because there is none.

It would have been nice to get those 4-5 PPR points to salvage the flex spot.

 

[bizkliz]

It's awesome that Alphonso Smith is getting all the garbage time check downs.

This. I agree with this.

The one week I am forced to start him. Here's to cracking another cold one. Bottoms up. Stay thirsty my friends.

-biz-

 

[Awful Waffle]

The one week I start him. Sigh. Knew it was a bad matchup, but figured with Thursday night weirdness, it would even out.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

They tried really hard to get him tds. He gets chances. They should have used him more on 3rd and in comeback mode, but he's going to score.

 

[Insein]

They tried really hard to get him tds. He gets chances. They should have used him more on 3rd and in comeback mode, but he's going to score.

I just hope that something clicks in Arians brain this week when he watches the tape that 16 carries into the line for 22 yards with Mendenhall will get him fired.

 

[GreenNGold]

They tried really hard to get him tds. He gets chances. They should have used him more on 3rd and in comeback mode, but he's going to score.

I just hope that something clicks in Arians brain this week when he watches the tape that 16 carries into the line for 22 yards with Mendenhall will get him fired.

He should be immediately fired for kicking a FG from the 4 yard line while down 18 points in the 4th quarter. I thought NFL coaches were supposed to understand the game? I mean, how do people who are so incompetent get these jobs that pay millions of dollars per year?

 

[RushHour]

To be fair, it's not like Ellington did anything with his measly 3 carries. Still, not as much usage as the previous three weeks. Had a couple of chances in scoring range but couldn't convert. That's the difference between a strong flex play and a why the hell did I start this guy play. Can't trust him until he's guaranteed more usage.

 

[cubbie5150]

So much for him being a lock to start for me (for the first time since I grabbed him after week 2) to cover a BYE. WTF was Aphonso Smith doing on the field? He's kinda pointless... Geez, that o-line, and Palmer, are even more horrid when actually watching them for a whole game. The Cardinals shouldn't be allowed on primetime TV.

 

[Eminence]

So much for him being a lock to start for me (for the first time since I grabbed him after week 2) to cover a BYE. WTF was Aphonso Smith doing on the field? He's kinda pointless... Geez, that o-line, and Palmer, are even more horrid when actually watching them for a whole game. The Cardinals shouldn't be allowed on primetime TV.

Their Rookie 1st Rounder Jonathan Cooper did get hurt. That didn't help things. If they draft a few more bodies for the O-Line and maybe get a Free Agent or two the line may look better in Year 2.

A new Quarterback may be a priority for them as well.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

...and for every Morris the are dozens of guys who flash and then wash out.

I find this hard to believe. I don't have any numbers to back it up, but generally speaking there's what...1-2 guys a year that are not 3rd-4th round draft picks or better and become long-term RB1/2. So by definition, in order for your statement to be true there would have to be dozens of guys a year that "flash" and disappear. And we all know that's not the case. Obviously more often than not, late round or undrafted RB's that have a modicum of success don't have long term success. But I don't think it's anywhere near as rare as you proclaim it to be. I suppose it depends on your definition of flash. Technically, Goodson flashed for about 5 minutes.

If Goodson flashed for "5 minutes" then Ellington has flashed for 40 seconds. That's the entire point -- 43 change of pace touches doesn't say much compared to the massive amounts of data provided by looking at hundreds of players with similar physical profiles and pedigree.

Fair enough. So, at what point is it okay to begin talking about what a guy is capable of and try projecting future value?

It's obviously OK to talk about it right now. But in terms of expecting more than a part time role moving forward I'll need to see it first. Ellington's FF points-per-touch are unsustainable right now -- he IS going to regress as the season goes on, much less over the course of his career. If the touches don't increase, he's going to disappoint. He profiles like a 3rd down guy physically and based on his draft slot, so that's what I'm counting on until I see otherwise. In the meantime, if someone falls in love and is willing to pay for the unlikely high end upside, I'll sell. And be happy with getting that return from a rookie 3rd, 90% of which are total junk.

Then it's too late. Dynasty leagues are all about predicting the future, once the future of a player is obvious then there's no value to be had. It's only in these moments of uncertainty where you get dynasty steals. Once he gets more than a part time role then his value skyrockets and whoever has him won't trade him away, especially in dynasty leagues.

Well, yeah. But then again I'm not the guy that overpaid for Mewelde Moore, either. Tons of small quick guys look dynamic on 43 touches. The number of them that develop into long term fantasy assets is much smaller.

I'm guessing you're also not the guy that bought low on Priest Holmes, Michael Turner, Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, or Alfred Morris. What exactly would an overpayment of Mewelde Moore have been anyway, a 2nd round rookie pick? If a player looks like he has legit starting potential to you, I think the benefits outweigh the costs in regard to whether paying a middle/late round pick for an unproven player is worth it. The key is being able to identify which unproven players have a chance at stardom and which are fool's gold. Simply stating "most 6th round RBs are busts" is missing the point entirely (the point being to treat each player as an individual and not a statistic), especially when the specific player in question has already proven to be not your average 6th round pick.

If your argument against Ellington was based on him as an individual I'd take no issue with your opinion whatsoever. But when your argument against him ignores his personal talent entirely, I think your 'process' is faulty.

 

[Goooals]

No reason Smith should have been in the game. Coach should have seen what he has in Ellington during the two minute drill.

Buy hey, he is the coach and knows much more than we do.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

...and for every Morris the are dozens of guys who flash and then wash out.

I find this hard to believe. I don't have any numbers to back it up, but generally speaking there's what...1-2 guys a year that are not 3rd-4th round draft picks or better and become long-term RB1/2. So by definition, in order for your statement to be true there would have to be dozens of guys a year that "flash" and disappear. And we all know that's not the case. Obviously more often than not, late round or undrafted RB's that have a modicum of success don't have long term success. But I don't think it's anywhere near as rare as you proclaim it to be. I suppose it depends on your definition of flash. Technically, Goodson flashed for about 5 minutes.

If Goodson flashed for "5 minutes" then Ellington has flashed for 40 seconds. That's the entire point -- 43 change of pace touches doesn't say much compared to the massive amounts of data provided by looking at hundreds of players with similar physical profiles and pedigree.

Fair enough. So, at what point is it okay to begin talking about what a guy is capable of and try projecting future value?

It's obviously OK to talk about it right now. But in terms of expecting more than a part time role moving forward I'll need to see it first. Ellington's FF points-per-touch are unsustainable right now -- he IS going to regress as the season goes on, much less over the course of his career. If the touches don't increase, he's going to disappoint. He profiles like a 3rd down guy physically and based on his draft slot, so that's what I'm counting on until I see otherwise. In the meantime, if someone falls in love and is willing to pay for the unlikely high end upside, I'll sell. And be happy with getting that return from a rookie 3rd, 90% of which are total junk.

Then it's too late. Dynasty leagues are all about predicting the future, once the future of a player is obvious then there's no value to be had. It's only in these moments of uncertainty where you get dynasty steals. Once he gets more than a part time role then his value skyrockets and whoever has him won't trade him away, especially in dynasty leagues.

Well, yeah. But then again I'm not the guy that overpaid for Mewelde Moore, either. Tons of small quick guys look dynamic on 43 touches. The number of them that develop into long term fantasy assets is much smaller.

I'm guessing you're also not the guy that bought low on Priest Holmes, Michael Turner, Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, or Alfred Morris. What exactly would an overpayment of Mewelde Moore have been anyway, a 2nd round rookie pick? If a player looks like he has legit starting potential to you, I think the benefits outweigh the costs in regard to whether paying a middle/late round pick for an unproven player is worth it. The key is being able to identify which unproven players have a chance at stardom and which are fool's gold. Simply stating "most 6th round RBs are busts" is missing the point entirely (the point being to treat each player as an individual and not a statistic), especially when the specific player in question has already proven to be not your average 6th round pick.

If your argument against Ellington was based on him as an individual I'd take no issue with your opinion whatsoever. But when your argument against him ignores his personal talent entirely, I think your 'process' is faulty.

You must have missed the part where I drafted Ellington with rookie 3rds in most leagues, which is an appropriate price. The way he's looked thus far, an early / mid rookie 2nd is probably reasonable. That doesn't mean he's not a huge longshot to have long term fantasy relevance. My argument is with the "only a matter of time," "Arians should be fired," "Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson comparison" types.My argument isn't that all 6th round RBs are garbage. It's that a 6th round RB with Ellington's physical profile (small, lacks elite speed and athletic measurables) succeeding as anything more than a role player would be pretty unprecedented, so expecting more (which is very different from hoping for more) is foolish. Ellington has 47 touches now, which clearly isn't close to a statistically significant sample size -- so yeah, it makes more sense to look at history than Ellington himself at this point, because we simply don't have enough information to accurately assess Ellington as an individual. Thinking otherwise is how so many people ended up starting the guy last night thinking he was a good bet for 15 touches, 100 YFS, and a score. Or trading a Hakeem Nicks for the guy in dynasty. That's bad process and unless Ellington becomes the first ever small, slow 6th round RB in NFL history to get and keep a featured role, it will bite you in the ###.

 

[RushHour]

This Hakeem Nicks trade keeps coming up as if it's a shocking offer. I don't see what's wrong with it at all.

 

[DoubleG]

To be fair, it's not like Ellington did anything with his measly 3 carries. Still, not as much usage as the previous three weeks. Had a couple of chances in scoring range but couldn't convert. That's the difference between a strong flex play and a why the hell did I start this guy play. Can't trust him until he's guaranteed more usage.

This.

Everyone bemoaning Mendy's horrible night rushing the ball and his 1.7 YPC keep in mind that his 1.7 was almost double what Ellington's was. Ellington was 3 carries for 3 yards with a long of 3. That's not very good - but Seattle's run d is, which is why there was no running room for either back.

While I like Ellington, the fact is Arians views him as a 30-snap-a-game back at the most. Meaning he is probably only a decent flex play/RB3/4 and that depends heavily on matchup.

 

[rjv]

They tried really hard to get him tds. He gets chances. They should have used him more on 3rd and in comeback mode, but he's going to score.

I just hope that something clicks in Arians brain this week when he watches the tape that 16 carries into the line for 22 yards with Mendenhall will get him fired.

Arians is a total dope. This guy needs to wise up and get his #### together.

 

[DoubleG]

They tried really hard to get him tds. He gets chances. They should have used him more on 3rd and in comeback mode, but he's going to score.

I just hope that something clicks in Arians brain this week when he watches the tape that 16 carries into the line for 22 yards with Mendenhall will get him fired.

Arians is a total dope. This guy needs to wise up and get his #### together.

But he does have his #### together....it's all on the o-line.

 

[LuckyOne]

Seattle's defense is one of the top units against the run. This was supposed to be a tough game. Ellington is still a very good PPR flex option with a very high upside later in the season.

 

[Khy]

...and for every Morris the are dozens of guys who flash and then wash out.

I find this hard to believe. I don't have any numbers to back it up, but generally speaking there's what...1-2 guys a year that are not 3rd-4th round draft picks or better and become long-term RB1/2. So by definition, in order for your statement to be true there would have to be dozens of guys a year that "flash" and disappear. And we all know that's not the case. Obviously more often than not, late round or undrafted RB's that have a modicum of success don't have long term success. But I don't think it's anywhere near as rare as you proclaim it to be. I suppose it depends on your definition of flash. Technically, Goodson flashed for about 5 minutes.

If Goodson flashed for "5 minutes" then Ellington has flashed for 40 seconds. That's the entire point -- 43 change of pace touches doesn't say much compared to the massive amounts of data provided by looking at hundreds of players with similar physical profiles and pedigree.

Fair enough. So, at what point is it okay to begin talking about what a guy is capable of and try projecting future value?

It's obviously OK to talk about it right now. But in terms of expecting more than a part time role moving forward I'll need to see it first. Ellington's FF points-per-touch are unsustainable right now -- he IS going to regress as the season goes on, much less over the course of his career. If the touches don't increase, he's going to disappoint. He profiles like a 3rd down guy physically and based on his draft slot, so that's what I'm counting on until I see otherwise. In the meantime, if someone falls in love and is willing to pay for the unlikely high end upside, I'll sell. And be happy with getting that return from a rookie 3rd, 90% of which are total junk.

Then it's too late. Dynasty leagues are all about predicting the future, once the future of a player is obvious then there's no value to be had. It's only in these moments of uncertainty where you get dynasty steals. Once he gets more than a part time role then his value skyrockets and whoever has him won't trade him away, especially in dynasty leagues.

Well, yeah. But then again I'm not the guy that overpaid for Mewelde Moore, either. Tons of small quick guys look dynamic on 43 touches. The number of them that develop into long term fantasy assets is much smaller.

I'm guessing you're also not the guy that bought low on Priest Holmes, Michael Turner, Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, or Alfred Morris. What exactly would an overpayment of Mewelde Moore have been anyway, a 2nd round rookie pick? If a player looks like he has legit starting potential to you, I think the benefits outweigh the costs in regard to whether paying a middle/late round pick for an unproven player is worth it. The key is being able to identify which unproven players have a chance at stardom and which are fool's gold. Simply stating "most 6th round RBs are busts" is missing the point entirely (the point being to treat each player as an individual and not a statistic), especially when the specific player in question has already proven to be not your average 6th round pick.

If your argument against Ellington was based on him as an individual I'd take no issue with your opinion whatsoever. But when your argument against him ignores his personal talent entirely, I think your 'process' is faulty.

You must have missed the part where I drafted Ellington with rookie 3rds in most leagues, which is an appropriate price. The way he's looked thus far, an early / mid rookie 2nd is probably reasonable. That doesn't mean he's not a huge longshot to have long term fantasy relevance. My argument is with the "only a matter of time," "Arians should be fired," "Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson comparison" types.My argument isn't that all 6th round RBs are garbage. It's that a 6th round RB with Ellington's physical profile (small, lacks elite speed and athletic measurables) succeeding as anything more than a role player would be pretty unprecedented, so expecting more (which is very different from hoping for more) is foolish. Ellington has 47 touches now, which clearly isn't close to a statistically significant sample size -- so yeah, it makes more sense to look at history than Ellington himself at this point, because we simply don't have enough information to accurately assess Ellington as an individual. Thinking otherwise is how so many people ended up starting the guy last night thinking he was a good bet for 15 touches, 100 YFS, and a score. Or trading a Hakeem Nicks for the guy in dynasty. That's bad process and unless Ellington becomes the first ever small, slow 6th round RB in NFL history to get and keep a featured role, it will bite you in the ###.

Here's my issue with this...

It's only a matter of time: Ridiculous argument, it's not only a matter of time. The correct way to say what a lot of people are trying to say here is "Man, he looks great in limited time. I'd like to see what he could do with a full compliment of carries".

Arian's Should be Fired: I've never been a big fan of Arian's anyway. I don't think he did a good job in Indy last season and I don't think he's doing a good job in Arizona right now. Irregardless of Ellington's talent or 'deserved opportunity' Mendenhall is awful. The guy has yet to do a single relevant thing all season long. Yet Arian's keeps plugging away with him, hoping it will click. People keep saying this is similar to the BJGE and Gio situation in Cincy. But it's not, not even a little bit. That is a situation where the law firm is getting 3-4 yards on every carry and while he's plodding he makes stuff happen and can wear down a defense and allow Gio to come in and look dominant on his touches. The Bengals are winning with this strategy and there's no reason for them to change it because it WORKS. Arizona is different, they aren't winning, Mendenhall is lucky to get 2-3 yards on a run at best and Ellington has also looked better than him all season long on limited touches. So, should Arian's be fired? No... but this concept that "He's an NFL coach and you're not so clearly he's right" is obnoxious. Arian's is and always has been loyal to a fault, it's always been a knock against him as a coach. And we're seeing that right now... it's a similar situation to Coughlin in NY right now. Both of them have trouble admitting "Well this isn't working at all, we're losing doing it, maybe we should try mixing it up a little bit".

Jamaal Charles - Chris Johnson Comparison: I'm assuming you're talking about my reference here. And JUST like in the David Wilson thread when I 'compared' Wilson to Marshall Faulk or Barry Sanders I wasn't wrong. Because I'm not comparing them as players... simply stating they are the exact same size. Because the argument here (and in the Wilson thread) was "Oh, he's too small and not built to hold up with a full compliment of carries" which is just asinine. There are plenty of examples of guys these sizes performing fantastic with 250-300 touches a season. Obviously, Ellington doesn't have Johnson's speed, nobody has Johnson's speed. Obviously Ellington isn't as shifty as Charles, besides McCoy nobody in the NFL is probably that shifty right now. But Ellington does have good measurables, he's roughly a 4.4 runner (he ran a 4.6 at the combine but pulled up lame with a Hamstring, hard to consider his official time 4.6).

So no, he isn't a slow, 6th round RB. He's a average speed, 3rd round talent, who dropped to the 6th round due to a bad combine. But TONS of people who evaluate players in the draft were shocked that Ellington fell as far as he did. Had he been drafted by a better team in say the 5th round instead? We could be talking about him putting up more points right now than Gio. Say if the Broncos had drafted him or maybe the Patriots? A team that understands how to properly use a RB designed in the Danny Woodhead or Darren Sproles type of mold? He could be amazing. He's in a rough situation and may not cash in for real for another year or two. But I'm rather happy about taking a shot on him in the 3rd round of most of my dynasty leagues this offseason.

 

[Slapdash]

Here's my issue with this...

It's only a matter of time: Ridiculous argument, it's not only a matter of time. The correct way to say what a lot of people are trying to say here is "Man, he looks great in limited time. I'd like to see what he could do with a full compliment of carries".

Arian's Should be Fired: I've never been a big fan of Arian's anyway. I don't think he did a good job in Indy last season and I don't think he's doing a good job in Arizona right now. Irregardless of Ellington's talent or 'deserved opportunity' Mendenhall is awful. The guy has yet to do a single relevant thing all season long. Yet Arian's keeps plugging away with him, hoping it will click. People keep saying this is similar to the BJGE and Gio situation in Cincy. But it's not, not even a little bit. That is a situation where the law firm is getting 3-4 yards on every carry and while he's plodding he makes stuff happen and can wear down a defense and allow Gio to come in and look dominant on his touches. The Bengals are winning with this strategy and there's no reason for them to change it because it WORKS. Arizona is different, they aren't winning, Mendenhall is lucky to get 2-3 yards on a run at best and Ellington has also looked better than him all season long on limited touches. So, should Arian's be fired? No... but this concept that "He's an NFL coach and you're not so clearly he's right" is obnoxious. Arian's is and always has been loyal to a fault, it's always been a knock against him as a coach. And we're seeing that right now... it's a similar situation to Coughlin in NY right now. Both of them have trouble admitting "Well this isn't working at all, we're losing doing it, maybe we should try mixing it up a little bit".

Jamaal Charles - Chris Johnson Comparison: I'm assuming you're talking about my reference here. And JUST like in the David Wilson thread when I 'compared' Wilson to Marshall Faulk or Barry Sanders I wasn't wrong. Because I'm not comparing them as players... simply stating they are the exact same size. Because the argument here (and in the Wilson thread) was "Oh, he's too small and not built to hold up with a full compliment of carries" which is just asinine. There are plenty of examples of guys these sizes performing fantastic with 250-300 touches a season. Obviously, Ellington doesn't have Johnson's speed, nobody has Johnson's speed. Obviously Ellington isn't as shifty as Charles, besides McCoy nobody in the NFL is probably that shifty right now. But Ellington does have good measurables, he's roughly a 4.4 runner (he ran a 4.6 at the combine but pulled up lame with a Hamstring, hard to consider his official time 4.6).

So no, he isn't a slow, 6th round RB. He's a average speed, 3rd round talent, who dropped to the 6th round due to a bad combine. But TONS of people who evaluate players in the draft were shocked that Ellington fell as far as he did. Had he been drafted by a better team in say the 5th round instead? We could be talking about him putting up more points right now than Gio. Say if the Broncos had drafted him or maybe the Patriots? A team that understands how to properly use a RB designed in the Danny Woodhead or Darren Sproles type of mold? He could be amazing. He's in a rough situation and may not cash in for real for another year or two. But I'm rather happy about taking a shot on him in the 3rd round of most of my dynasty leagues this offseason.

What?

 

[ldizzle]

To be fair, it's not like Ellington did anything with his measly 3 carries. Still, not as much usage as the previous three weeks. Had a couple of chances in scoring range but couldn't convert. That's the difference between a strong flex play and a why the hell did I start this guy play. Can't trust him until he's guaranteed more usage.

This. Everyone bemoaning Mendy's horrible night rushing the ball and his 1.7 YPC keep in mind that his 1.7 was almost double what Ellington's was. Ellington was 3 carries for 3 yards with a long of 3. That's not very good - but Seattle's run d is, which is why there was no running room for either back.

While I like Ellington, the fact is Arians views him as a 30-snap-a-game back at the most. Meaning he is probably only a decent flex play/RB3/4 and that depends heavily on matchup.

the difference is thst mendenhall has been bad the whole season not just this game. BUT I am concerned about this kimited snap role in the even mendenhall was injured or benched. Does smith come in and fill mendenhalls role?

 

[FantasyTrader]

To be fair, it's not like Ellington did anything with his measly 3 carries. Still, not as much usage as the previous three weeks. Had a couple of chances in scoring range but couldn't convert. That's the difference between a strong flex play and a why the hell did I start this guy play. Can't trust him until he's guaranteed more usage.

This. Everyone bemoaning Mendy's horrible night rushing the ball and his 1.7 YPC keep in mind that his 1.7 was almost double what Ellington's was. Ellington was 3 carries for 3 yards with a long of 3. That's not very good - but Seattle's run d is, which is why there was no running room for either back.

While I like Ellington, the fact is Arians views him as a 30-snap-a-game back at the most. Meaning he is probably only a decent flex play/RB3/4 and that depends heavily on matchup.

the difference is thst mendenhall has been bad the whole season not just this game. BUT I am concerned about this kimited snap role in the even mendenhall was injured or benched. Does smith come in and fill mendenhalls role?

See, that's what I'm concerned about as well. If you take Arians words at face value, Alfonso Smith is Mendenhall's backup. Even in the event Mendy misses time, Ellington's role wouldn't change? That's concerning from a dynasty perspective.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

@ Khy:

You're completely talking out of your ### on a number of points.

Ellington doesn't have 4.4 speed. He ran an unofficial (ie hand timed) 4.51 at his pro day -- and times like that are notoriously inaccurate almost always in the player's favor. Yes, at < 200 lbs that's slooooow.

He isn't a 3rd round talent. We know for a fact that all 32 teams passed on him through the first five rounds. Anything beyond that is pure speculation, including possible reasons why. Of course it's possible that the NFL collectively whiffed, but history tells us it's very, very unlikely, as a simple glance at a multiyear list of 6th round RBs will make clear.

Re: the Cards' play calling, it's absolutely 100% necessary to have someone try to pound the ball up between the tackles, yes, even if its totally ineffective. With that o-line, if the Cards abandon the run, and the defensive front doesn't need to pay some attention to gap discipline, things will get much worse, not better. Arians probably sees Ellington as a space player, and probably thinks that adding a big chunk of inside carries would be counterproductive to both the team and Ellington himself. Given Ellington's physical profile, I don't see that as an untenable position. Obviously quite a few folks do. Time will tell.

Re: Charles / Johnson it's a totally irrelevant comparison to even bring up. Those two guys are outliers -- they succeed despite their size based on obvious, jaw-dropping physical gifts that Ellington lacks. The argument isn't that Ellington is too small end of story -- it's that he probably lacks the explosive athletic ability to overcome his lack of size.