Andre Ellington - RB - Clemson. (4 Viewers)

[Khy]

@ Khy:

You're completely talking out of your ### on a number of points.

Ellington doesn't have 4.4 speed. He ran an unofficial (ie hand timed) 4.51 at his pro day -- and times like that are notoriously inaccurate almost always in the player's favor. Yes, at < 200 lbs that's slooooow.

He isn't a 3rd round talent. We know for a fact that all 32 teams passed on him through the first five rounds. Anything beyond that is pure speculation, including possible reasons why. Of course it's possible that the NFL collectively whiffed, but history tells us it's very, very unlikely, as a simple glance at a multiyear list of 6th round RBs will make clear.

Re: the Cards' play calling, it's absolutely 100% necessary to have someone try to pound the ball up between the tackles, yes, even if its totally ineffective. With that o-line, if the Cards abandon the run, and the defensive front doesn't need to pay some attention to gap discipline, things will get much worse, not better. Arians probably sees Ellington as a space player, and probably thinks that adding a big chunk of inside carries would be counterproductive to both the team and Ellington himself. Given Ellington's physical profile, I don't see that as an untenable position. Obviously quite a few folks do. Time will tell.

Re: Charles / Johnson it's a totally irrelevant comparison to even bring up. Those two guys are outliers -- they succeed despite their size based on obvious, jaw-dropping physical gifts that Ellington lacks. The argument isn't that Ellington is too small end of story -- it's that he probably lacks the explosive athletic ability to overcome his lack of size.

I didn't know his 'unofficial' 40 time which is why I said "around a 4.4 runner" it was mainly just an eye test comment, when I watch him on film from Clemson and in the NFL he looks like a 4.4 runner to me. On the field in a straight line he looks no slower than Charles does to me who is a 4.4 runner.

Almost every single professional outlet had him pinned as a 3rd or 4th round talent at worst. Most sites you go to that evaluate the draft had him as one of the Top 3-5 RBs in this seasons draft. Why he fell is beyond me and in all honesty beyond a lot of analysts whose job it is to look into this stuff. I'm sure teams had reasons but he was graded as a 3-4th rounder by most. I'm far from talking out of my ### here on that.

"I think pound-for-pound this kid competes as a pass protector, and I didn't see that when I turned on the tape. He's quicker than fast. His foot speed is balanced. His competitive nature all added up to a third-round pick." -- Mike Mayock

Sure, obviously it's 100% necessary to have someone try to run between the tackles. The simple point I'm trying to make (which is different from most people in this thread) is Arians position here is the pure definition of insanity. And tons of coaches are guilty of this, not just Bruce Arians. But when you have a guy who is running 3.0ypc it's clearly not working. Sure, you can blame the offensive line if you want. Blame anything, but you'd assume he would start to TRY and see how other people worked out. Not even just Ellington, try running Smith a lot more up the middle. The point here isn't that "ELLINGTON IS BEING UNDERUTILIZED. ARIANS IS A TARD". It's that Arians is being ridiculous and loyal to Mendy to a fault. He's not being productive, you have other guys on this offense behind him who haven't seen real playing time. They may be better they may be the same but it'd be hard for them to be worse.

As for Charles and Johnson being outliers they really aren't... if you look at BMI which is a better measure of a RBs build. In terms of how well a play can hold up. It's basic science... a guy who is 6' 200lbs has about the same 'stature' as a guy who is 6' 2" and 215lbs. And in this example a guy who is 5' 11" 199lbs (Charles, Ellington) has the same 'stature' as a guy who is 6' 2" and 217 lbs (Peterson).

Andre Ellington: 27.8

Chris Johnson: 28.3

Jamaal Charles: 27.8

Adrian Peterson: 27.9

OJ Simpson: 27.2

Tony Dorsett: 26.0

Thurman Thomas: 28.7

Marcus Allen: 27.0

All of these guys were tall and light. They were also all amazing, full carry backs in their prime. I'm so absolutely sick and tired of this size argument. It's relevant for QBs and WRs but it's simply not for RBs. Sure, if Ellington was say... 6' and 165lbs that'd be a MUCH different story. But he's not, he falls into the same stature mold as tons and tons of elite past and I'm sure future RBs. Realize, I in know possible way envision him being one of these guys or even half of one of these guys. My point here is to stop this stupid ### argument about RB size in the NFL.

It's completely ridiculous and has 0-zip-nadda evidence to prove that 5'11 199lbs is "undersized". In fact, it's about average for a RB. Most "elite" RBs in the history of the NFL fall into the 27-29 BMI mold. In fact... the real outlier's are the guys who exceed 31-32 BMI. Your Jerome Bettis, Brandon Jacobs, Doug Martin types.

 

[FantasyTrader]

Ellington has 47 touches now, which clearly isn't close to a statistically significant sample size -- so yeah, it makes more sense to look at history than Ellington himself at this point, because we simply don't have enough information to accurately assess Ellington as an individual. Thinking otherwise is how so many people ended up starting the guy last night thinking he was a good bet for 15 touches, 100 YFS, and a score.

I'm one of the people that started Ellington last night (over Powell) and I still believe I was correct in doing so, regardless of the outcome. Admittedly - the decision between him and Powell was virtually a coin flip. His touches per game had steadily trended upward almost without exception leading up to last night with 1, 6, 6, 7, 11 and 12 through six weeks. So I think it's disingenuous to look back at last night (5 touches) and say that projecting 15 was a crackpot idea. The stats also don't reflect the fact that Palmer really started keying on him the little time they were in the red zone, so Arizona made a concerted effort to get him the ball in space. They also don't reflect the fact that Ellington continues to display flat out filthy lateral movement. Even in tight spaces near the sideline he consistently makes the first defender miss. What I DID NOT count on was Alfonso Smith's 4-30 receiving in garbage time. I was counting on those going to Ellington, but his role didn't really change regardless of meta-game circumstances. That's concerning.

Going forward, I'm still as high as I was on the guy as a flex and I still believe he will cause people to redefine his terms over the next 2-3 years. This is not a small, slow RB.

 

[Slapdash]

I don't really care much about his 40 time. He is quick and has good vision in traffic. The proof is in the tape, not the stopwatch.

 

[FantasyTrader]

Re: the Cards' play calling, it's absolutely 100% necessary to have someone try to pound the ball up between the tackles, yes, even if its totally ineffective. With that o-line, if the Cards abandon the run, and the defensive front doesn't need to pay some attention to gap discipline, things will get much worse, not better.

I agree with all of this, but we're talking about degrees. In the first half did the Cardinals attempt a pass on 1st down? Genuine question, I honestly don't know. It wasn't the between the tackles runs I took issue with, it was the predictability of it. EVERY SINGLE 1st down (granted, there weren't many of them for the Cards) was Mendenhall up the middle. Arizona began having some success in the 2nd half when they actually passed on 1st down. So the play-calling was abysmal for the fact that it was unimaginative and predictable - not because they tried pounding the middle.

 

[T with T]

why are you all arguing with Couer or whatever his name is.. Only problem for Ellington is his usage, that's obvious... You don't give a player as exciting and electric as Ellington 5 Touches... Arians is a moron, thank you and couer lay off the liquor.

 

[T with T]

Re: the Cards' play calling, it's absolutely 100% necessary to have someone try to pound the ball up between the tackles, yes, even if its totally ineffective. With that o-line, if the Cards abandon the run, and the defensive front doesn't need to pay some attention to gap discipline, things will get much worse, not better.

I agree with all of this, but we're talking about degrees. In the first half did the Cardinals attempt a pass on 1st down? Genuine question, I honestly don't know. It wasn't the between the tackles runs I took issue with, it was the predictability of it. EVERY SINGLE 1st down (granted, there weren't many of them for the Cards) was Mendenhall up the middle. Arizona began having some success in the 2nd half when they actually passed on 1st down. So the play-calling was abysmal for the fact that it was unimaginative and predictable - not because they tried pounding the middle.

everything about the cards was awful, unimaginative and uninspiring. Horrible play calling as I think Mendy,smith were used more then ELLINGTON which is criminal in itself... Both the catches Ellington had he was decisive and got First downs.... This was a pathetic display of a #### organization with no clue where they are goin..... Im surprised they are 3-4. It has something to do with who they play Obviously but that was just sheer idiocracy how the game was played out... 2wide out sets on first down and plodding up the middle with slow mendy... where was Ellington for swing, screen, dump off passes and seam routes... pitches and sweeps would have been a nice wrinkle.. I would fire arians, Oc, and gm for that God awful team.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

@ Khy:

Guessing at a player's 40 time based on game film when a 2 second google search can give you the actual number fits my definition of talking out of your ### fairly well, but YMMV.

Re: draft position, Mayock is a smart guy. But so are Ozzie Newsome, John Schneider, etc. I know whose opinion I prefer. Again, YMMV.

Re: Arians, I'm not a huge fan of trying to read his mind and figure out why he's using Mendehall. He's a competent offensive coach. I watched his offense for years as a Steelers' homer, and he knows what he's doing. He's not Mike Shanahan or Andy Reid, but neither is he a boob like Romeo Crennel who is surprised when reporters point out that Charles only had 6 touches in the post game presser. I'm willing to give Arians the benefit of the doubt at this point and assume that after seeing every RB on his roster every day in practice for months he knows more about how to use them than some FF geeks who watch a few games and start freaking out because Ellington put up < 2 points in their flex last night. Yet again, YMMV.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Serious question for the general public: is the a poster on this board, or anywhere else on the innerwebs that bring less to the table than does "T with T?" The combination of mindless blather, hysteria, over-reaction, name calling, and childish insults, backed up by atrocious butchering of the English language are unique in my experience. But he always gives me a laugh, which isn't necessarily a bad thing.

 

[Mile High]

Serious question for the general public: is the a poster on this board, or anywhere else on the innerwebs that bring less to the table than does "T with T?" The combination of mindless blather, hysteria, over-reaction, name calling, and childish insults, backed up by atrocious butchering of the English language are unique in my experience. But he always gives me a laugh, which isn't necessarily a bad thing.

Maybe it would be better for the general public, if you two added each other to the ignore list.

 

[ryno1980]

Serious question for the general public: is the a poster on this board, or anywhere else on the innerwebs that bring less to the table than does "T with T?" The combination of mindless blather, hysteria, over-reaction, name calling, and childish insults, backed up by atrocious butchering of the English language are unique in my experience. But he always gives me a laugh, which isn't necessarily a bad thing.

Maybe it would be better for the general public, if you two added each other to the ignore list.

I'll second that.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Serious question for the general public: is the a poster on this board, or anywhere else on the innerwebs that bring less to the table than does "T with T?" The combination of mindless blather, hysteria, over-reaction, name calling, and childish insults, backed up by atrocious butchering of the English language are unique in my experience. But he always gives me a laugh, which isn't necessarily a bad thing.

Maybe it would be better for the general public, if you two added each other to the ignore list.

Way too much unintentional comedic value to put him on ignore -- it's much more fun to poke him with a stick and laugh at the reactions, in all honesty. But you're right, it adds zero. I'll try to resist when possible.

 

[fCheeze]

I understand the need to pound the ball between the tackles, but that is going against strength of Seattle D. I agree with the idea that Arians is not using Ellington enough. Ellington would provide more options to keep the D off balance, where and Mendy was clearly ineffective early, and did nothing for the team last night.

I think the play calling was horrible, and especially horrible on 1st down last night. Way too many long passes vs options with the running game (ellington) to pull the backs in..

Arians continues to fear for Ellington's small size.. but I just keep seeing Jamal Charles (minus some open field speed). Ellington is a playmaker that needs more plays.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I understand the need to pound the ball between the tackles, but that is going against strength of Seattle D. I agree with the idea that Arians is not using Ellington enough. Ellington would provide more options to keep the D off balance, where and Mendy was clearly ineffective early, and did nothing for the team last night.

I think the play calling was horrible, and especially horrible on 1st down last night. Way too many long passes vs options with the running game (ellington) to pull the backs in..

Arians continues to fear for Ellington's small size.. but I just keep seeing Jamal Charles (minus some open field speed). Ellington is a playmaker that needs more plays.

The value of running Mendenhall into the line last night wasn't in generating positive yardage. No one on that roster was going to gain yards against that defense behind that piss poor offensive line. The value was in preventing the Seattle defense from simply pinning their ears back and playing "meet you at Carson Palmer" all night. It didn't work well, but IMO nothing would have worked well given the disparity in talent between the Cards' offensive line and the Seattle defense. AZ was effed no matter if they ran a single wing, the run n shoot, or anything in between. Last night was an illustration of talent disparity, not scheme superiority. And the current Cards are outmatched like that more often than not -- their line is as bad as it gets in the NFL.

 

[T with T]

Serious question for the general public: is the a poster on this board, or anywhere else on the innerwebs that bring less to the table than does "T with T?" The combination of mindless blather, hysteria, over-reaction, name calling, and childish insults, backed up by atrocious butchering of the English language are unique in my experience. But he always gives me a laugh, which isn't necessarily a bad thing.

Maybe it would be better for the general public, if you two added each other to the ignore list.

Way too much unintentional comedic value to put him on ignore -- it's much more fun to poke him with a stick and laugh at the reactions, in all honesty. But you're right, it adds zero. I'll try to resist when possible.

I add a hell of a lot more to the table analytically about football then your bs and shti talking ever did? what have you offered about this player except say he is a bum and not startable? What have you brought to the table guy?

 

[T with T]

I understand the need to pound the ball between the tackles, but that is going against strength of Seattle D. I agree with the idea that Arians is not using Ellington enough. Ellington would provide more options to keep the D off balance, where and Mendy was clearly ineffective early, and did nothing for the team last night.

I think the play calling was horrible, and especially horrible on 1st down last night. Way too many long passes vs options with the running game (ellington) to pull the backs in..

Arians continues to fear for Ellington's small size.. but I just keep seeing Jamal Charles (minus some open field speed). Ellington is a playmaker that needs more plays.

The value of running Mendenhall into the line last night wasn't in generating positive yardage. No one on that roster was going to gain yards against that defense behind that piss poor offensive line. The value was in preventing the Seattle defense from simply pinning their ears back and playing "meet you at Carson Palmer" all night. It didn't work well, but IMO nothing would have worked well given the disparity in talent between the Cards' offensive line and the Seattle defense. AZ was effed no matter if they ran a single wing, the run n shoot, or anything in between. Last night was an illustration of talent disparity, not scheme superiority. And the current Cards are outmatched like that more often than not -- their line is as bad as it gets in the NFL.

oh really??? wow you are great tell us some more info anyone can see... how about do some research and point out some stuff we already don't all know...

 

[FantasyTrader]

Last night was an illustration of talent disparity, not scheme superiority.

Wanna know what tends to combat that?

Having your most talented (and far and away most elusive) RB on the field. But I suppose in Arians eyes he did. And he is, after all, coach of the year.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Last night was an illustration of talent disparity, not scheme superiority.

Wanna know what tends to combat that?Having your most talented (and far and away most elusive) RB on the field. But I suppose in Arians eyes he did. And he is, after all, coach of the year.

We can argue all day about whether Arians is or isn't a moron and achieve nothing. It is a fact that he is the head coach of the Cardinals, and likely will be for at least a few years moving forward. What does that tell you about Ellington's probable dynasty value? Glllllll starting him anytime soon.

 

[FantasyTrader]

Last night was an illustration of talent disparity, not scheme superiority.

Wanna know what tends to combat that?Having your most talented (and far and away most elusive) RB on the field. But I suppose in Arians eyes he did. And he is, after all, coach of the year.

We can argue all day about whether Arians is or isn't a moron and achieve nothing. It is a fact that he is the head coach of the Cardinals, and likely will be for at least a few years moving forward. What does that tell you about Ellington's probable dynasty value? Glllllll starting him anytime soon.

And there's the rub. I agree with you completely!

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Last night was an illustration of talent disparity, not scheme superiority.

Wanna know what tends to combat that?Having your most talented (and far and away most elusive) RB on the field. But I suppose in Arians eyes he did. And he is, after all, coach of the year.

We can argue all day about whether Arians is or isn't a moron and achieve nothing. It is a fact that he is the head coach of the Cardinals, and likely will be for at least a few years moving forward. What does that tell you about Ellington's probable dynasty value? Glllllll starting him anytime soon.

And there's the rub. I agree with you completely!

Then I have zero clue why we're arguing at all. Or are you saying that Ellington is worth more than the early - mid 2nd price I put on him based on what might or might not happen in x number of years if / when Bruce Arians is fired (and honestly at 3-4 given the lack of talent this team is probably overachieving)?

 

[Khy]

Last night was an illustration of talent disparity, not scheme superiority.

Wanna know what tends to combat that?Having your most talented (and far and away most elusive) RB on the field. But I suppose in Arians eyes he did. And he is, after all, coach of the year.

We can argue all day about whether Arians is or isn't a moron and achieve nothing. It is a fact that he is the head coach of the Cardinals, and likely will be for at least a few years moving forward. What does that tell you about Ellington's probable dynasty value? Glllllll starting him anytime soon.

And there's the rub. I agree with you completely!

Then I have zero clue why we're arguing at all. Or are you saying that Ellington is worth more than the early - mid 2nd price I put on him based on what might or might not happen in x number of years if / when Bruce Arians is fired (and honestly at 3-4 given the lack of talent this team is probably overachieving)?

See I agree with you as well... we just have different views on how these things are approached. I'm of the opinion that I really like what I'm seeing of Ellington and I'm buying him everywhere I can in hopes that in a year or two his situation (coach and OLine) gets better and he can explode onto the scene ala Jamaal Charles. You like to take the approach on these boards (and I see this everywhere you post) of "Nobody is good until they're good" while I take the approach of "Man, this kid is showing some exciting flashes". It's like the quote Bloom likes to mention all the time on the Audible from Wayne Gretzky.

"You skate to where the punk is going to be, not to where it's at right now"

If you don't jump on guys with high potential but zero proven talent early you're often too late. It's one of the big issues I have with posting like yours and some of the other people on these boards, because often we're not even disagreeing about the outlook of a player. We're disagreeing on how we react to small tidbits of information. I personally take small flashes and jump at them when I've seen other things I like in a players game. There's been tons of situations where my gut on a guy was right and plenty where it was wrong. But every time it's right? It's really really right. And every time it's wrong? It's no biggie I drop the guy and move on.

I've had Ellington stashed in every dynasty league I'm in as I drafted him slightly higher than his ADP was because I liked the talent I saw from him in college and I believe that eventually talent will win out in most situations. In redraft, I've had him on my bench for the last 3 weeks. By that same token, I've had Keenan Allen on all my redraft leagues since his 5 rec, 80 line he put up a few weeks back before he was on anyone's radar. He also won me a TON of daily fantasy leagues last week after he was started in only 10% of leagues and I had him rolling in every one.

The point is... in fantasy, especially in dynasty leagues. You need to take risks and chances on players that you see potential in... and some of us like to get excited when we own a player and we see that potential start to flash. If you wait around for everyone to have a 'bigger sample size' chances are you've waited too long and now someone else owns him. But hey, at least then you can say "Man, that guys good I wish I owned him" instead of "Man, that guy didn't pan out how I thought. No biggie, I'll drop him for my next speculative pick".

 

[ryno1980]

Last night was an illustration of talent disparity, not scheme superiority.

Wanna know what tends to combat that?Having your most talented (and far and away most elusive) RB on the field. But I suppose in Arians eyes he did. And he is, after all, coach of the year.

We can argue all day about whether Arians is or isn't a moron and achieve nothing. It is a fact that he is the head coach of the Cardinals, and likely will be for at least a few years moving forward. What does that tell you about Ellington's probable dynasty value? Glllllll starting him anytime soon.

And there's the rub. I agree with you completely!

Then I have zero clue why we're arguing at all. Or are you saying that Ellington is worth more than the early - mid 2nd price I put on him based on what might or might not happen in x number of years if / when Bruce Arians is fired (and honestly at 3-4 given the lack of talent this team is probably overachieving)?

See I agree with you as well... we just have different views on how these things are approached. I'm of the opinion that I really like what I'm seeing of Ellington and I'm buying him everywhere I can in hopes that in a year or two his situation (coach and OLine) gets better and he can explode onto the scene ala Jamaal Charles. You like to take the approach on these boards (and I see this everywhere you post) of "Nobody is good until they're good" while I take the approach of "Man, this kid is showing some exciting flashes". It's like the quote Bloom likes to mention all the time on the Audible from Wayne Gretzky.

"You skate to where the punk is going to be, not to where it's at right now"

If you don't jump on guys with high potential but zero proven talent early you're often too late. It's one of the big issues I have with posting like yours and some of the other people on these boards, because often we're not even disagreeing about the outlook of a player. We're disagreeing on how we react to small tidbits of information. I personally take small flashes and jump at them when I've seen other things I like in a players game. There's been tons of situations where my gut on a guy was right and plenty where it was wrong. But every time it's right? It's really really right. And every time it's wrong? It's no biggie I drop the guy and move on.

I've had Ellington stashed in every dynasty league I'm in as I drafted him slightly higher than his ADP was because I liked the talent I saw from him in college and I believe that eventually talent will win out in most situations. In redraft, I've had him on my bench for the last 3 weeks. By that same token, I've had Keenan Allen on all my redraft leagues since his 5 rec, 80 line he put up a few weeks back before he was on anyone's radar. He also won me a TON of daily fantasy leagues last week after he was started in only 10% of leagues and I had him rolling in every one.

The point is... in fantasy, especially in dynasty leagues. You need to take risks and chances on players that you see potential in... and some of us like to get excited when we own a player and we see that potential start to flash. If you wait around for everyone to have a 'bigger sample size' chances are you've waited too long and now someone else owns him. But hey, at least then you can say "Man, that guys good I wish I owned him" instead of "Man, that guy didn't pan out how I thought. No biggie, I'll drop him for my next speculative pick".

Well said. If you were in a situation of thinking last night against Seattle was the time to put him in your lineup, you're doing it wrong. He's a guy I what on my roster in certain leagues though.

 

[ryno1980]

Last night was an illustration of talent disparity, not scheme superiority.

Wanna know what tends to combat that?Having your most talented (and far and away most elusive) RB on the field. But I suppose in Arians eyes he did. And he is, after all, coach of the year.

We can argue all day about whether Arians is or isn't a moron and achieve nothing. It is a fact that he is the head coach of the Cardinals, and likely will be for at least a few years moving forward. What does that tell you about Ellington's probable dynasty value? Glllllll starting him anytime soon.

And there's the rub. I agree with you completely!

Then I have zero clue why we're arguing at all. Or are you saying that Ellington is worth more than the early - mid 2nd price I put on him based on what might or might not happen in x number of years if / when Bruce Arians is fired (and honestly at 3-4 given the lack of talent this team is probably overachieving)?

See I agree with you as well... we just have different views on how these things are approached. I'm of the opinion that I really like what I'm seeing of Ellington and I'm buying him everywhere I can in hopes that in a year or two his situation (coach and OLine) gets better and he can explode onto the scene ala Jamaal Charles. You like to take the approach on these boards (and I see this everywhere you post) of "Nobody is good until they're good" while I take the approach of "Man, this kid is showing some exciting flashes". It's like the quote Bloom likes to mention all the time on the Audible from Wayne Gretzky.

"You skate to where the punk is going to be, not to where it's at right now"

If you don't jump on guys with high potential but zero proven talent early you're often too late. It's one of the big issues I have with posting like yours and some of the other people on these boards, because often we're not even disagreeing about the outlook of a player. We're disagreeing on how we react to small tidbits of information. I personally take small flashes and jump at them when I've seen other things I like in a players game. There's been tons of situations where my gut on a guy was right and plenty where it was wrong. But every time it's right? It's really really right. And every time it's wrong? It's no biggie I drop the guy and move on.

I've had Ellington stashed in every dynasty league I'm in as I drafted him slightly higher than his ADP was because I liked the talent I saw from him in college and I believe that eventually talent will win out in most situations. In redraft, I've had him on my bench for the last 3 weeks. By that same token, I've had Keenan Allen on all my redraft leagues since his 5 rec, 80 line he put up a few weeks back before he was on anyone's radar. He also won me a TON of daily fantasy leagues last week after he was started in only 10% of leagues and I had him rolling in every one.

The point is... in fantasy, especially in dynasty leagues. You need to take risks and chances on players that you see potential in... and some of us like to get excited when we own a player and we see that potential start to flash. If you wait around for everyone to have a 'bigger sample size' chances are you've waited too long and now someone else owns him. But hey, at least then you can say "Man, that guys good I wish I owned him" instead of "Man, that guy didn't pan out how I thought. No biggie, I'll drop him for my next speculative pick".

Well said. If you were in a situation of thinking last night against Seattle was the time to put him in your lineup, you're doing it wrong. He's a guy I what on my roster in certain leagues though.

 

[FantasyTrader]

Then I have zero clue why we're arguing at all. Or are you saying that Ellington is worth more than the early - mid 2nd price I put on him based on what might or might not happen in x number of years if / when Bruce Arians is fired (and honestly at 3-4 given the lack of talent this team is probably overachieving)?

Honestly CdL, I don't think we're arguing over much. But I do place far more value on what I see with my own eyes out of Ellington than you. You see a scat back without much "scat" to him, as was projected by most NFL scouts. And that's fine. I see a potential...POTENTIAL every down back and talent usually finds it's way to the top of the depth chart. Where you give him maybe a 5% chance(?) of becoming a fantasy starter down the road - don't know I'm just guessing - I'd estimate it to be closer to 20-25%.

 

[Khy]

Then I have zero clue why we're arguing at all. Or are you saying that Ellington is worth more than the early - mid 2nd price I put on him based on what might or might not happen in x number of years if / when Bruce Arians is fired (and honestly at 3-4 given the lack of talent this team is probably overachieving)?

Honestly CdL, I don't think we're arguing over much. But I do place far more value on what I see with my own eyes out of Ellington than you. You see a scat back without much "scat" to him, as was projected by most NFL scouts. And that's fine. I see a potential...POTENTIAL every down back and talent usually finds it's way to the top of the depth chart. Where you give him maybe a 5% chance(?) of becoming a fantasy starter down the road - don't know I'm just guessing - I'd estimate it to be closer to 20-25%.

I'd say 20-25% is a safe bet. Lets face it, few guys who show flashes every become fantasy studs and every week RB2's or better. But even fewer guys ever show flashes. When flashes are shown they can't be ignored. For every "Mewelde Moore" type who flashed and fizzled out there's a guy just like him who flashed and had a few great seasons. Think of guys who didn't come right out of college labeled as "STUD" that are now labeled that way.

Arian Foster - UDFA

Jamaal Charles - 4th Round Pick

Darren Sproles - 4th Round Pick

Ahmad Bradshaw - 6th Round Pick

Brandon Jacobs - 4th Round Pick

Marques Colston - 7th Round Pick

Tom Brady - 6th Round Pick

Kurt Warner - UDFA

I can keep going if you'd like? With EVERY SINGLE ONE of these guys, if you waited until "you had more data points" it'd be to late and you likely just blew your chance at a cake walk to a championship because you ignored the flashes because they were 'only flashes'.

Will Ellington eventually be on that list? Who knows, but what I do know is if he is on this list? A lot of people who say "he has only shown flashes" will be way to far behind on him.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Again, I have the guy rostered in 3/5 dynos as we speak this minute. I'm not missing out on squat. Even if I get an offer for an early 2nd and decide to take it, it's a solid win -- 2013 3rd --> 2014 early 2nd is great return that I can win long term with all day.

But people get HUGELY carried away when any young guy looks good, and overpay based on unrealistic assessment of probabilities -- if you think he's 25% likely to be a RB1 in a few years, you're pretty much ignoring history. If you pay for him based on that 25%, most of the time you get burned badly. I'm not going to do the work for anyone from my phone, but pull a list of 6th round RBs going back 10 - 20 years and look at the percentages. Then try to find a guy comparable to Ellington in physical profile -- based on real data -- height, weight, 3-cone, jumps, 40 time -- that has succeeded as more than a bit player. It's not going to be a 25% hit rate I promise you.

@ Khy -- getting carried away on a small sample size definitely hurt you on Wilson this year. Not talking dynasty, as that book has yet to be written, but if you play redraft, based on your posts here you were the guy taking him with an early 2nd, which is a team killer probably. There are two sides to the "show me first" coin. Sure, I missed out on Alfred Morris, but I've avoided wasting resources on almost every guy who looked good on a few touches and started a ridiculous hype train with people overpaying -- from Kevan Barlow to Tatum Bell to Lamar Miller just this year. It's a matter of looking at realistic outcomes and getting guys CHEAP, BEFORE the herd goes ape####. The guy (me in virtually every league) who bought Julius Thomas for peanuts in May is smart. The guy who's thinking about trading Julio Jones to me for him right now is a sucker. As would I be if I stood pat with Julius in that case. Or if I turn down a Hakeem Nicks for Ellington tomorrow because I'm giving Ellington a 25% chance of being Jamaal Charles, when his real chances of that are .01% or so.

 

[Jutz]

I just traded Lamar Miller for Ellington. I have Ray Rice, Woodhead, Zac Stacy, and Chris Obgwhatsizname. I got tired of waiting for Miller to do someting and all the hype on this board made me really want him. I think his owner saw last nights game and figured he wasn't worth much... my thoughts are that Seattle is tough. Owner also had some buy weeks to navigate and Miller will help with that. It's a ppr league. I think I have enough depth that I can stash and see what happens.

 

[Ray]

"You skate to where the punk is going to be, ..."

Best F-slip I've seen in a while

 

[Khy]

Again, I have the guy rostered in 3/5 dynos as we speak this minute. I'm not missing out on squat. Even if I get an offer for an early 2nd and decide to take it, it's a solid win -- 2013 3rd --> 2014 early 2nd is great return that I can win long term with all day.

But people get HUGELY carried away when any young guy looks good, and overpay based on unrealistic assessment of probabilities -- if you think he's 25% likely to be a RB1 in a few years, you're pretty much ignoring history. If you pay for him based on that 25%, most of the time you get burned badly. I'm not going to do the work for anyone from my phone, but pull a list of 6th round RBs going back 10 - 20 years and look at the percentages. Then try to find a guy comparable to Ellington in physical profile -- based on real data -- height, weight, 3-cone, jumps, 40 time -- that has succeeded as more than a bit player. It's not going to be a 25% hit rate I promise you.

@ Khy -- getting carried away on a small sample size definitely hurt you on Wilson this year. Not talking dynasty, as that book has yet to be written, but if you play redraft, based on your posts here you were the guy taking him with an early 2nd, which is a team killer probably. There are two sides to the "show me first" coin. Sure, I missed out on Alfred Morris, but I've avoided wasting resources on almost every guy who looked good on a few touches and started a ridiculous hype train with people overpaying -- from Kevan Barlow to Tatum Bell to Lamar Miller just this year. It's a matter of looking at realistic outcomes and getting guys CHEAP, BEFORE the herd goes ape####. The guy (me in virtually every league) who bought Julius Thomas for peanuts in May is smart. The guy who's thinking about trading Julio Jones to me for him right now is a sucker. As would I be if I stood pat with Julius in that case. Or if I turn down a Hakeem Nicks for Ellington tomorrow because I'm giving Ellington a 25% chance of being Jamaal Charles, when his real chances of that are .01% or so.

In terms of my take on Wilson in redraft, I own/ed him in 2/4 of my redraft leagues. The two I own him in were leagues that drafted prior to the Brown injury and I got him in the 4th round. So sure, he 'under performed' at his 4th round ADP. But I didn't really overpay for him. As for dynasty I waited until a few weeks of Wilson doing nothing and flipped a 1st rounder and Ahmad Bradshaw for him. Which I still don't think is overpaying, as I still fully believe in the kids talent in the future and I'd be hard pressed to find another RB with that level of talent in next seasons draft (not to mention my 1st round pick should be a mid-late round pick in a 16 team 45 man dynasty league). Normally though, at least if the past is any indication my eye test and gut is usually pretty spot on. I've owned Morris, RG3, Mike Williams, Danario Alexander, Matt Ryan, Arian Foster, Marshawn Lynch, Mike Vick, etc. during their breakout years. And it was always a situation where I'd pick them up a week prior to them being the "Next big WW pick" being touted at NFL.com and Rotoworld and would constantly get messages from friends in the leagues saying "How the hell? I went to pick this guy up and realized you drafted him. How did you even know his name?"... in particular that happened last season when I took Morris with my 2nd to last pick in my home league after Week 2 of the Preseason and everyone was going "Who the hell is Alfred Morris? I don't even see his name on my lists... isn't he like the 4th string RB in Washington?". Also this season when I picked up Keenan Allen 3 weeks ago.

My point is, we all have our own eye tests. Mine usually haven't failed me. In fact, David Wilson's probably the biggest FF eye test bust I've had in about 9 years of playing this wonderful game. I really truly thought Wilson would break out this year. Then again, a ton of people did, probably a good 90% of the FF Community saw Wilson busting out this season. It wasn't just the Shark Pool it was every fantasy site around the globe. Nobody saw a 0-6 start for the Giants coming. Nobody. Not making excuses for myself, clearly I thought Wilson would hit huge and he didn't. That said, I still made some great calls this season and if the season ended today I'd be in the playoffs and making a run in every one of my redrafts even with drafting Wilson.

Also, I never thought that Ellington has a 25% chance at being the next Jamaal Charles. I think he has a good 15-20% shot at being a solid RB2 going forward. Which isn't that insane to me, especially considering what passes as an RB2 these days.

 

[T with T]

Again, I have the guy rostered in 3/5 dynos as we speak this minute. I'm not missing out on squat. Even if I get an offer for an early 2nd and decide to take it, it's a solid win -- 2013 3rd --> 2014 early 2nd is great return that I can win long term with all day.

But people get HUGELY carried away when any young guy looks good, and overpay based on unrealistic assessment of probabilities -- if you think he's 25% likely to be a RB1 in a few years, you're pretty much ignoring history. If you pay for him based on that 25%, most of the time you get burned badly. I'm not going to do the work for anyone from my phone, but pull a list of 6th round RBs going back 10 - 20 years and look at the percentages. Then try to find a guy comparable to Ellington in physical profile -- based on real data -- height, weight, 3-cone, jumps, 40 time -- that has succeeded as more than a bit player. It's not going to be a 25% hit rate I promise you.

@ Khy -- getting carried away on a small sample size definitely hurt you on Wilson this year. Not talking dynasty, as that book has yet to be written, but if you play redraft, based on your posts here you were the guy taking him with an early 2nd, which is a team killer probably. There are two sides to the "show me first" coin. Sure, I missed out on Alfred Morris, but I've avoided wasting resources on almost every guy who looked good on a few touches and started a ridiculous hype train with people overpaying -- from Kevan Barlow to Tatum Bell to Lamar Miller just this year. It's a matter of looking at realistic outcomes and getting guys CHEAP, BEFORE the herd goes ape####. The guy (me in virtually every league) who bought Julius Thomas for peanuts in May is smart. The guy who's thinking about trading Julio Jones to me for him right now is a sucker. As would I be if I stood pat with Julius in that case. Or if I turn down a Hakeem Nicks for Ellington tomorrow because I'm giving Ellington a 25% chance of being Jamaal Charles, when his real chances of that are .01% or so.

where do you make up all these intricate calculations... A .01% chance, how did you come up with that number you and your brother in your basement??? get real guy you have no validity or argument, your just a trolling fairy who likes to ruin game day and piss in the shark pool.

 

[FantasyTrader]

...if you think he's 25% likely to be a RB1 in a few years, you're pretty much ignoring history. If you pay for him based on that 25%, most of the time you get burned badly. I'm not going to do the work for anyone from my phone, but pull a list of 6th round RBs going back 10 - 20 years and look at the percentages. Then try to find a guy comparable to Ellington in physical profile -- based on real data -- height, weight, 3-cone, jumps, 40 time -- that has succeeded as more than a bit player. It's not going to be a 25% hit rate I promise you.

Not what I said. 25% to be a starting fantasy back, we need to make sure we're talking about the same thing. And don't worry about what I paid for him, I picked him up off waivers back in September in my 10-team dynasty league so I'm free-rolling Andre. The problem with your analogy is that, by including ALL 6th round RB's the last 10-20 years you're comparing apples to oranges. How many of those players failed to make a roster (something Ellington has accomplished), how many carved out a steadily growing role in their first 6 games as a rookie (accomplished), how many produced nearly 200% of the next best RB on the roster over that same span (accomplished).

The further removed we get from the draft, and the more success/ability a player player demonstrates on the field; the less his time in the 3-cone shuttle nonsense matters. To gauge the probability of Ellington's future value, forget about the 6th round thing. Completely irrelevant now. Compare him to all players whose careers began with production similar to his.

 

[Slapdash]

Is this what the David Wilson thread is like?

 

[Eminence]

Wow, you guys are really over this Ellington guy's nuts.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

...if you think he's 25% likely to be a RB1 in a few years, you're pretty much ignoring history. If you pay for him based on that 25%, most of the time you get burned badly. I'm not going to do the work for anyone from my phone, but pull a list of 6th round RBs going back 10 - 20 years and look at the percentages. Then try to find a guy comparable to Ellington in physical profile -- based on real data -- height, weight, 3-cone, jumps, 40 time -- that has succeeded as more than a bit player. It's not going to be a 25% hit rate I promise you.

Not what I said. 25% to be a starting fantasy back, we need to make sure we're talking about the same thing. And don't worry about what I paid for him, I picked him up off waivers back in September in my 10-team dynasty league so I'm free-rolling Andre. The problem with your analogy is that, by including ALL 6th round RB's the last 10-20 years you're comparing apples to oranges. How many of those players failed to make a roster (something Ellington has accomplished), how many carved out a steadily growing role in their first 6 games as a rookie (accomplished), how many produced nearly 200% of the next best RB on the roster over that same span (accomplished).The further removed we get from the draft, and the more success/ability a player player demonstrates on the field; the less his time in the 3-cone shuttle nonsense matters. To gauge the probability of Ellington's future value, forget about the 6th round thing. Completely irrelevant now. Compare him to all players whose careers began with production similar to his.

Agree to disagree on where the tipping point is, then. IMO draft position and test results stay relevant for a long time, decreasing slowly over time as we gain a substantial body of NFL work to assess. Those things are hugely relevant for a < 50 touch Ellington and close to worthless by now for a roughly 450 touch (guessing here) Alfred Morris. My own rankings and value assessments on players are something I deliberately force a level of static-ness (if that's even a word LOL) into -- in order to avoid the team killing value swings that can result from reacting too strongly to evidence, either positive or negative, based on a small sample size. Regression catches everyone at the end of the day, and numbers don't ever lie -- while our eyes do all the time.

Some people swing for the fences and strike out a lot. Others hit singles all day. You can score a ton of runs either way.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Is this what the David Wilson thread is like?

Wilson thread is way dumber. There's some decent discussion going on in here amongst the idiotic flaming and WDIS redraft crap.

 

[Khy]

Wow, you guys are really over this Ellington guy's nuts.

I love how you started this thread. And were up Ellingtons ###. Until he posted a 3 carry, 3 yard line. And now everyone else is on "this Ellington guys nuts".

You're a friggin riot my friend.

 

[T with T]

Is this what the David Wilson thread is like?

Wilson thread is way dumber. There's some decent discussion going on in here amongst the idiotic flaming and WDIS redraft crap.

COuer de lion has spoken, if anyone disagrees he is a childish, non english major. Don't piss him off guys. He's right Ellington is to small and their is less then a 0.00001 chance he is ever as good as Jamaal Charles, so let's just fold up this thread and move on the next guy.... Hey how about Gronk.

 

[T with T]

Wow, you guys are really over this Ellington guy's nuts.

I love how you started this thread. And were up Ellingtons ###. Until he posted a 3 carry, 3 yard line. And now everyone else is on "this Ellington guys nuts".

You're a friggin riot my friend.

I like the guy a lot. He sets up his blocks very well and some of the cuts he makes at high-speed will make people miss at the NFL level. Decent hands, reminds me a bit of Chris Johnson (slower, of course).

5 ft 9

200 lbs

I can't see any way this guy slips out of the 3rd Round. I think his game has room to grow at the professional level, too. He should definitely be on the radar for a team like the Packers or Steelers.

He's someone that I think can come in and compete. Worst case scenario you end up with a decent 3rd Down - COP guy.

friggin tool

 

[FantasyTrader]

Wow, you guys are really over this Ellington guy's nuts.

Guilty. When the rest of my RB's are the dead last RB in the league in yards per carry (otherwise known as Ray Rice), Pierce, MJD, Bilal Powell, Chris Ivory, and Christine Michael I'm willing to grasp at any straw I can find. I'm willing to admit I'm not the most unbiased opinion of this guy.

 

[FantasyTrader]

...if you think he's 25% likely to be a RB1 in a few years, you're pretty much ignoring history. If you pay for him based on that 25%, most of the time you get burned badly. I'm not going to do the work for anyone from my phone, but pull a list of 6th round RBs going back 10 - 20 years and look at the percentages. Then try to find a guy comparable to Ellington in physical profile -- based on real data -- height, weight, 3-cone, jumps, 40 time -- that has succeeded as more than a bit player. It's not going to be a 25% hit rate I promise you.

Not what I said. 25% to be a starting fantasy back, we need to make sure we're talking about the same thing. And don't worry about what I paid for him, I picked him up off waivers back in September in my 10-team dynasty league so I'm free-rolling Andre. The problem with your analogy is that, by including ALL 6th round RB's the last 10-20 years you're comparing apples to oranges. How many of those players failed to make a roster (something Ellington has accomplished), how many carved out a steadily growing role in their first 6 games as a rookie (accomplished), how many produced nearly 200% of the next best RB on the roster over that same span (accomplished).The further removed we get from the draft, and the more success/ability a player player demonstrates on the field; the less his time in the 3-cone shuttle nonsense matters. To gauge the probability of Ellington's future value, forget about the 6th round thing. Completely irrelevant now. Compare him to all players whose careers began with production similar to his.

Agree to disagree on where the tipping point is, then. IMO draft position and test results stay relevant for a long time, decreasing slowly over time as we gain a substantial body of NFL work to assess. Those things are hugely relevant for a < 50 touch Ellington and close to worthless by now for a roughly 450 touch (guessing here) Alfred Morris. My own rankings and value assessments on players are something I deliberately force a level of static-ness (if that's even a word LOL) into -- in order to avoid the team killing value swings that can result from reacting too strongly to evidence, either positive or negative, based on a small sample size. Regression catches everyone at the end of the day, and numbers don't ever lie -- while our eyes do all the time.

Some people swing for the fences and strike out a lot. Others hit singles all day. You can score a ton of runs either way.

That's valid. A guy's measurables have a place in the discussion and I'm willing to admit I might be a little guilty of seeing what I want to see (as stated above).

 

[NREC34]

Why do people that play dynasty act like they're better than everyone else ?

 

[flapgreen]

Is this what the David Wilson thread is like?

I'm pretty sure Ellington is the second coming of Wilson... or Jesus.

 

[flapgreen]

Why do people that play dynasty act like they're better than everyone else ?

Better yet, why do people go back and watch game tape like they're really coaching the team?

 

[Eminence]

Wow, you guys are really over this Ellington guy's nuts.

I love how you started this thread. And were up Ellingtons ###. Until he posted a 3 carry, 3 yard line. And now everyone else is on "this Ellington guys nuts".You're a friggin riot my friend.

When was I up Ellington's ###? I haven't posted in this thread in weeks. The love has gotten WAY out of control.EDIT: Everyone needs to add Khy to their block list. He spouts horse####.

 

[Eminence]

Wow, you guys are really over this Ellington guy's nuts.

I love how you started this thread. And were up Ellingtons ###. Until he posted a 3 carry, 3 yard line. And now everyone else is on "this Ellington guys nuts".

You're a friggin riot my friend.

I like the guy a lot. He sets up his blocks very well and some of the cuts he makes at high-speed will make people miss at the NFL level. Decent hands, reminds me a bit of Chris Johnson (slower, of course).

5 ft 9

200 lbs

I can't see any way this guy slips out of the 3rd Round. I think his game has room to grow at the professional level, too. He should definitely be on the radar for a team like the Packers or Steelers.

He's someone that I think can come in and compete. Worst case scenario you end up with a decent 3rd Down - COP guy.

friggin tool

I don't get it. Are you saying I DIDN'T hit the nail right on the head?

 

[grateful zed]

EDIT: Everyone needs to add Khy to their block list.

ok, you convinced me.

 

[T with T]

Their is nothing to be seen here until he starts getting more then 5 touches a game. That's the real problem here so instead of bickering about who is on who's nuts let's worry about the real problem and the fact that the most talented rb on the team is only getting 5 touches. That's criminal imo.

 

[Ray]

Wow, you guys are really over this Ellington guy's nuts.

I love how you started this thread. And were up Ellingtons ###. Until he posted a 3 carry, 3 yard line. And now everyone else is on "this Ellington guys nuts".

You're a friggin riot my friend.

I agree 100%. Being an idiot is one thing; being a hypocritical idiot is sooo much worse.

 

[T with T]

Wow, you guys are really over this Ellington guy's nuts.

I love how you started this thread. And were up Ellingtons ###. Until he posted a 3 carry, 3 yard line. And now everyone else is on "this Ellington guys nuts".

You're a friggin riot my friend.

I agree 100%. Being an idiot is one thing; being a hypocritical idiot is sooo much worse.

 

[DoubleG]

Their is nothing to be seen here until he starts getting more then 5 touches a game. That's the real problem here so instead of bickering about who is on who's nuts let's worry about the real problem and the fact that the most talented rb on the team is only getting 5 touches. That's criminal imo.

Ummm...he's gotten 5+ touches in every game this year except two...the last one and the first one. Also, most COP-type backs have an inordinately high YPC, making them look better on paper than their early down counterparts. Part of that has to do with the game situations they are in when running the ball, other times it has to do with a small sample size skewed by long run or two.

 

[T with T]

Their is nothing to be seen here until he starts getting more then 5 touches a game. That's the real problem here so instead of bickering about who is on who's nuts let's worry about the real problem and the fact that the most talented rb on the team is only getting 5 touches. That's criminal imo.

Ummm...he's gotten 5+ touches in every game this year except two...the last one and the first one. Also, most COP-type backs have an inordinately high YPC, making them look better on paper than their early down counterparts. Part of that has to do with the game situations they are in when running the ball, other times it has to do with a small sample size skewed by long run or two.

Ok I understand this, but what reasoning is there behind this to make this seem like a smart move. Why would he last few weeks pile up snaps and carries and all of a sudden get a pass on the first play of game and then be phased out for a plodding mendenhall. That is the real issue here as Arians has made questionable calls and is really using Ellington in a ####ty way for Real football and fantasy. Arians isn't doing ARI any favors phasing Ellington out last night when they were down by 10+.