What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Andrew Luck..... Love fest inside.... (3 Viewers)

CalBear said:
10-12 was Luck's record in 2015-2016. The Colts actually did much better in 2015 with Hasselbeck at QB (Luck 2-5, Hasselbeck 5-3). Hasselbeck (at age 40) also was better in every statistical category than Luck.

Football's a team game. One of the reasons the Colts did OK in 2012-2014 is they were in probably the weakest division in football. 
Click to expand...
:lmao:   I guess old college allegiances die hard. 

 
ConnSKINS26 said:
Have an offer of Luck for my Carr in dynasty and have no idea what to do. Not in love with Carr in general, have Brady for the short term, but it feels like potentially throwing away value. This is an offer I would have snapped up 6 months ago, but this injury stuff with Luck is scary and so up in the air. 
Click to expand...
As a Carr owner I wouldn't touch that with the proverbial ten foot pole. Also own Luck in two leagues and am already anticipating having to work around him not being available for the early part of the season and lining a solid backup perhaps to be my starter for all of 2018.

 
ConnSKINS26 said:
Have an offer of Luck for my Carr in dynasty and have no idea what to do. Not in love with Carr in general, have Brady for the short term, but it feels like potentially throwing away value. This is an offer I would have snapped up 6 months ago, but this injury stuff with Luck is scary and so up in the air. 
Click to expand...
To my mind Carr has far less of a chance of ever becoming a consistent top 5 fantasy QB than Luck does of returning to form.

 
squistion said:
As a Carr owner I wouldn't touch that with the proverbial ten foot pole. Also own Luck in two leagues and am already anticipating having to work around him not being available for the early part of the season and lining a solid backup perhaps to be my starter for all of 2018.
Click to expand...


FreeBaGeL said:
To my mind Carr has far less of a chance of ever becoming a consistent top 5 fantasy QB than Luck does of returning to form.
Click to expand...


And these are the two competing voices in my head on this one. Well done guys.

 
killface said:
What your analysis is missing is this

https://www.stampedeblue.com/2015/5/19/8625013/andrew-luck-has-been-knocked-down-more-than-any-other-quarterback-over-past-three-years-colts
Click to expand...
Maybe you guys are right that @CalBear is trolling, but I do think he has at least somewhat of a point: Even in his first three years, Luck was a good QB, but was nowhere near that first-tier of QBs. Which is no slam on him; thinking back to recent years, only Peyton and Rodgers can really be said to have reached elite status within their first couple years as a starter. Brady, Brees, even lower tier guys like Wilson, Ben and Ryan, raised their game significantly after their first couple seasons.

Now, given Luck's trajectory, we all assumed he would get there. But he still hasn't. Most of us would argue that's because a) he's been playing hurt since 2015 and b) the roster around him is terrible. But the truth is, we don't know for certain. It's entirely possible that, even if Ballard is able to turn the roster around and build a line that can protect Luck, he'll still never ascend to elite status. Maybe his ceiling is a good-but-not-great QB like Eli, Ben or Ryan.

And that's the tragedy I was getting at in my post upthread. Because of how badly Grigson screwed up, we'll never really know. And even if he wasn't an all-time great, the Colts still had a golden opportunity earlier this decade with their QB locked up on a cheap contract. Not only did they fail to land any young superstars or cheap free agents the way the Seahawks did with Sherman, Thomas, Bennett, etc, they wasted most of those picks/signings on guys like Werner, Dorsett and Andre Johnson, who contributed nothing whatsoever.

So yeah, we can look at a career like Gale Sayers or Terrel Davis and lament that their careers were cut short by injury, but at least we got to see those guys reach their pinnacle. The fact that we may never even know with Luck is, IMO, even more tragic.

 
zftcg said:
Maybe you guys are right that @CalBear is trolling, but I do think he has at least somewhat of a point: Even in his first three years, Luck was a good QB, but was nowhere near that first-tier of QBs. Which is no slam on him; thinking back to recent years, only Peyton and Rodgers can really be said to have reached elite status within their first couple years as a starter. Brady, Brees, even lower tier guys like Wilson, Ben and Ryan, raised their game significantly after their first couple seasons.

Now, given Luck's trajectory, we all assumed he would get there. But he still hasn't. Most of us would argue that's because a) he's been playing hurt since 2015 and b) the roster around him is terrible. But the truth is, we don't know for certain. It's entirely possible that, even if Ballard is able to turn the roster around and build a line that can protect Luck, he'll still never ascend to elite status. Maybe his ceiling is a good-but-not-great QB like Eli, Ben or Ryan.

And that's the tragedy I was getting at in my post upthread. Because of how badly Grigson screwed up, we'll never really know. And even if he wasn't an all-time great, the Colts still had a golden opportunity earlier this decade with their QB locked up on a cheap contract. Not only did they fail to land any young superstars or cheap free agents the way the Seahawks did with Sherman, Thomas, Bennett, etc, they wasted most of those picks/signings on guys like Werner, Dorsett and Andre Johnson, who contributed nothing whatsoever.

So yeah, we can look at a career like Gale Sayers or Terrel Davis and lament that their careers were cut short by injury, but at least we got to see those guys reach their pinnacle. The fact that we may never even know with Luck is, IMO, even more tragic.
Click to expand...
This is a good post.

I think Luck had that 'it' factor.  That swagger that made him attack defenses, to not be concerned or make timid throws.  Mix that with talent and you eventually get an elite qb.  He believed the hype.

There is no doubt however that the stats don't bear that out (it's hard to capture 'it' in stats).  I think it's primarily because the colts have sucked.  Find any qb that can take that kind of beating over three seasons and be elite?  

But as you said above, we will never know.  That's all just speculation on my part

 
Faust said:
Andrew Luck in Europe seeking treatment on right shoulder 
Click to expand...
A little more detail from Ian Rapoport:

Ian Rapoport‏ @RapSheet 22m22 minutes ago

#Colts QB Andrew Luck is headed to Europe for treatment, as @MikeWellsNFL said.

He’s trying a couple of new techniques to get pain under control and get everything

in the shoulder balanced in terms of all muscles working together.
Click to expand...
I hope I am wrong, but I keep getting this bad feeling that Luck is damaged goods.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Dedfin said:
This is very bad.  It's probably too late to dump Luck, but if you can get something for him, then get it now.
Click to expand...
Too bad for me I acquired Luck yesterday in dynasty along with Henry for Brees and EEngram.. still have Big Ben and Trubisky at QB and Kelce at TE

 
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/6439/andrew-luck

Doctors will determine whether Andrew Luck (I.R., shoulder) needs another surgery after he resumes throwing.

The surgery would occur in January, though Luck is optimistic it won't be necessary. Luck will return to the United States this week after spending the last month rehabbing in Europe. He experienced pain the last time he threw and if that pain returns, Luck would likely undergo a tenodesis procedure to relocate his biceps tendon. Luck was hoping to be ready for the start of next season but another surgery would obviously complicate things. Dec 17 - 12:19 PM

Source: ESPN.com

 
Here we go again... If Luck does elect to have another surgery on next month, Colts (and FF owners everywhere) would wait 8-9 months of uncertainly.  Better pick up Brissett as insurance.  I have confident in their GM Ballard with his team-building especially with OL and DL. 

 
Ok, so what is the value of Captain Neckbeard (you would think he would have a woman in his life explain this is not a good look) for next year? 

In one of my Dynasty league's I have the following QB's:

C. Wentz (traded for last Summer)

D. Watson (Drafted)

A. Luck (Drafted as rookie)

P. Lynch  (picked up off waivers week #13 for 2018)

I put them in the order of value in my mind. I hate the idea of holding 4 QB's (although having to start Drew Stanton to win a championship was a lesson) but I don't think I can get enough value for Luck right now so I might have to hold him. Lynch could be a cut, but if he has a good week #17 AND the Broncos don't draft a QB he could have value. 

I think to let Luck go at a minimum i need: 

A. A first round rookie pick (unlikely)

B. A viable YOUNG starter at another position (Probably WR to get a decent return) 

Thoughts? Might just have to hold till he get gets back on the field and is a viable top ten QB again. Ironically he is the most likely on this list to be a week one starter next year given the injuries to Wentz and Watson. 

 
hoffman0001 said:
Ok, so what is the value of Captain Neckbeard (you would think he would have a woman in his life explain this is not a good look) for next year? 

In one of my Dynasty league's I have the following QB's:

C. Wentz (traded for last Summer)

D. Watson (Drafted)

A. Luck (Drafted as rookie)

P. Lynch  (picked up off waivers week #13 for 2018)

I put them in the order of value in my mind. I hate the idea of holding 4 QB's (although having to start Drew Stanton to win a championship was a lesson) but I don't think I can get enough value for Luck right now so I might have to hold him. Lynch could be a cut, but if he has a good week #17 AND the Broncos don't draft a QB he could have value. 

I think to let Luck go at a minimum i need: 

A. A first round rookie pick (unlikely)

B. A viable YOUNG starter at another position (Probably WR to get a decent return) 

Thoughts? Might just have to hold till he get gets back on the field and is a viable top ten QB again. Ironically he is the most likely on this list to be a week one starter next year given the injuries to Wentz and Watson.
Click to expand...
What a bad luck group of QBs...

Lynch would have no value to me.   I would hold Luck until his value rises at which I might deal for a draft pick.  Not sure he would garner a 1st but that might depend on league format.  Obviously, love the potential of Wentz and Watson and would feel comfortable moving forward with them plus a servicable starter.

That "servicable starter" could prove to be Luck if I can't find a buyer.

 
DropKick said:
What a bad luck group of QBs...

Lynch would have no value to me.   I would hold Luck until his value rises at which I might deal for a draft pick.  Not sure he would garner a 1st but that might depend on league format.  Obviously, love the potential of Wentz and Watson and would feel comfortable moving forward with them plus a servicable starter.

That "servicable starter" could prove to be Luck if I can't find a buyer.
Click to expand...
True, I had a total of 9 players on IR (Including Wentz, Watson, Beckam, Cook, and Robinson). Started 9-0 and then imploded with injuries. Luckily I held the top seed and had Gurley and Hunt to get me a Championship. 

I think you might be giving up too early on Lynch as a chip for a deal this summer. Yes, I can always gold onto Luck and have three great QB's. given this year it would be nice Insurance. 

 
hoffman0001 said:
True, I had a total of 9 players on IR (Including Wentz, Watson, Beckam, Cook, and Robinson). Started 9-0 and then imploded with injuries. Luckily I held the top seed and had Gurley and Hunt to get me a Championship. 

I think you might be giving up too early on Lynch as a chip for a deal this summer. Yes, I can always gold onto Luck and have three great QB's. given this year it would be nice Insurance. 
Click to expand...
Not meant as a knock on Lynch as much as opportunity cost of that extra roster spot.

 
Magic_Man said:
Assuming Luck comes back & plays like the Luck of old, would anyone rank Goff ahead of him?
Click to expand...
I wouldn't.

If Luck comes back and plays like he was before the injury (which I tend to think he will) then he is a top 5 QB. 

I do like Goff and I expect him to make improvements in the coming years. He has a long way to go before matching what Luck was doing at a similar age/development in the NFL.

 
Not so fast McDaniels...changed his mind and isn't taking the job. WOW, after it was announced? After assistant coaches had deals lined up?

 
Magic_Man said:
Assuming Luck comes back & plays like the Luck of old, would anyone rank Goff ahead of him?
Click to expand...
Goff's 2017, his first full season as a starter, was better than at least three of Luck's five season, and in yards per attempt and passer rating, was better than any of Luck's five seasons. 

Luck's second year: 343/570 (60.2%), 3822/22/9, 6.7 YPA, passer rating 87.0

Goff's second year: 296/477 (62.1%), 3804/28/7, 8.0 YPA, passer rating 100.5.

It's pretty clear that Goff is better than Luck was at this point in their respective careers. And it's questionable whether Luck is better even after five years in the league. If you expect improvement from Goff, he's more valuable than Luck, even if Luck comes back from a year off and a second shoulder surgery and plays the way he did in 2016.

 
CalBear said:
Goff's 2017, his first full season as a starter, was better than at least three of Luck's five season, and in yards per attempt and passer rating, was better than any of Luck's five seasons. 

Luck's second year: 343/570 (60.2%), 3822/22/9, 6.7 YPA, passer rating 87.0

Goff's second year: 296/477 (62.1%), 3804/28/7, 8.0 YPA, passer rating 100.5.

It's pretty clear that Goff is better than Luck was at this point in their respective careers. And it's questionable whether Luck is better even after five years in the league. If you expect improvement from Goff, he's more valuable than Luck, even if Luck comes back from a year off and a second shoulder surgery and plays the way he did in 2016.
Click to expand...
If you're talking from a real life perspective then surely we can note the differences in Goff playing his 2nd year with a great coach in one of the league's best offensive schemes alongside one of the league's best running games and a defense that keeps them passing in good situations vs. Luck playing with a terrible coach behind a terrible line that left him running for his life alongside a marginal running game and a bad defense that left them passing in obvious pass situations.

Goff was less than useless when Jeff Fisher was running things.  Luck has spent his entire career with that quality of coach.

If we're talking from a fantasy standpoint then I'm not sure why you're ignoring Luck's massive advantage in rushing stats (which in their year two seasons was worth an additonal 50 points over Goff, the equivalent of 1250 extra passing yards).

In either scenario we're ignoring the pretty massive jump that Luck took in year 3 into a guy who has finished with multiple top 5 fantasy seasons, a jump that we can no way depend on another impressive young QB taking (just ask Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston how that went for them this year).

 
ESPN's Chris Mortensen reports there are still doctors who have concerns about Andrew Luck's shoulder and whether he may require additional surgery.

As soon as Josh McDaniels backed out of the Colts' head-coaching job on Tuesday night, rumors began to swirl that McDaniels may know something about Luck's shoulder that the public does not. We doubt that's the case, but the concern around Luck is legitimate after he missed all of 2017 due to complications from right shoulder surgery. Luck needs to start throwing again ASAP to squash the rumors, and they're not going to go away until he does so.

Source: Adam Schefter on Twitter 

Feb 6 - 9:19 PM
Click to expand...
 
Adam Schefter 

@AdamSchefter

FWIW: On Sunday, ESPN's @mortreport reported there still are doctors who have concerns about Andrew Luck's shoulder and whether he could wind up needing additional surgery.
Click to expand...
 
Last edited by a moderator:
He should just go to the best shoulder surgeon in the world and get another surgery. He has twelve weeks to get better.

 
[icon] said:
Not often... and might not actually be the case here. There's a chance this shoulder gets him shut down for the season, and possibly could involve long term damage that might affect his career trajectory. 

Acquiring Luck is rolling the dice right now. Anyone convinced they know what the 'worst case" scenario could be is kidding themselves.

Looking at a study on Elite pitchers who underwent shoulder surgery (Jul/Aug 2013 edition of Sports Health by Harris et al.):

BASIS: 287 elite male pitchers who underwent shoulder surgery with 99% on the dominant throwing shoulder.  Most pitchers (276) were professional with a mean career length of 6.58 years.  Post-operative clinical follow-up within these studies was 3.62 years)

RESULTS:
• Overall rate of return to sport (RTS = "return to sport (RTS) at the same level prior to injury") was 68% 
• 22% of MLB pitchers never pitched again in MLB
• Performance declined for the 3 seasons prior to surgery and then gradually increased for 3 seasons afterward, but generally did not reach pre-injury levels.

TLDR: Not everyone comes back to somewhat similar performance levels, very few return to true pre-injury levels, and over 1/4 never pitch again. 

I'm pretty confident Luck will play again.... but anyone assuming it's a given that Luck will pick up where he left off, let alone ever throw as well as he did before the injury, are making a bold assumption, IMO. 
Click to expand...
Still stand by this until Luck proves me wrong (which I hope he does). 

I don’t think Luck ever fully returns to form. 

 
[icon] said:
Still stand by this until Luck proves me wrong (which I hope he does). 

I don’t think Luck ever fully returns to form. 
Click to expand...
These stats are misleading unless you know the baseline. For pitchers considered elite after a career of 6.58 years, what can be expected for future pitching performance? You're talking about people in their late 20s; how many remain elite into their 30s?

 
CalBear said:
These stats are misleading unless you know the baseline. For pitchers considered elite after a career of 6.58 years, what can be expected for future pitching performance? You're talking about people in their late 20s; how many remain elite into their 30s?
Click to expand...
This has all been discussed in the thread... you're welcome to go back and read it if you'd like. There is variance... it was discussed.

I stand by the general principle of what I said. I hope I'll be wrong. I don't think I will be. 

 
Colts GM Chris Ballard said Andrew Luck (shoulder) doesn't need another surgery.

"He doesn't need surgery," Ballard said after reports surfaced over concern on Luck's progress. "I've not gotten that from the two doctors. He's not throwing a football yet and is working on arm speed. He's not going to skip a step." Luck's shoulder injury looks to have no impact on Josh McDaniels' decision to back out of the Colts' head-coaching job. The Colts remain optimistic Luck will be ready for the start of the season.

Source: Stephen Holder on Twitter 

Feb 7 - 5:15 PM
Click to expand...
 
He definitely needs another surgery. They're just not going to come to terms with it and do it until the recovery time has him missing a chunk of next season as well. 

 
So he still isn’t throwing a football. I love Luck but he’s starting to feel super optimistic all the time and you have to wonder if 8 surgeons told him to have surgery again and 1 didn’t so he thinks he’s almost better.  Than again Bree’s has played a lot of great years with a flawed shoulder. Maybe he’s even healthy but I don’t believe anything he or the colts say.

 
If you're not a Luck owner and you think there's a chance he can come back, now is probably about the last best opportunity to trade for him.

 
voiceofunreason said:
So he still isn’t throwing a football. I love Luck but he’s starting to feel super optimistic all the time and you have to wonder if 8 surgeons told him to have surgery again and 1 didn’t so he thinks he’s almost better.  Than again Bree’s has played a lot of great years with a flawed shoulder. Maybe he’s even healthy but I don’t believe anything he or the colts say.
Click to expand...
Not only that, but now the problems are "only" the parts AROUND his throwing shoulder?! That's not what I want to hear if I'm holding Luck. 

 
What's everyone's take on Andrew Luck this year?  I know he's excellent buy-low candidate but how confident do you have in his full recovery from his severe shoulder injury and complicated surgery?  

 
Aznflyer14 said:
What's everyone's take on Andrew Luck this year?  I know he's excellent buy-low candidate but how confident do you have in his full recovery from his severe shoulder injury and complicated surgery?  
Click to expand...
I don't know this.

How would anyone know this?

 
Aznflyer14 said:
What's everyone's take on Andrew Luck this year?  I know he's excellent buy-low candidate but how confident do you have in his full recovery from his severe shoulder injury and complicated surgery?  
Click to expand...
I've totally flip-flopped on him.  I was a "eh it'll be fine" guy 8 months ago, but now we're sitting at 14 months since the surgery and he still can't even throw a football?  Given that, what are the odds that 19 months after the surgery he'll be fully recovered and ready to play at a high level when the season kicks off?  Doesn't seem like 5 months is going to make a huge difference if after 14 months we haven't even gotten to step 1 yet.

At this point I would be more surprised if we ever saw the old Andrew Luck again than if he was done in the NFL, or at least done as an elite player.

 
Carter_Can_Fly said:
What we know:

Andrew Luck just turned 24 years of age and is arguably the most important player to his team in the entire NFL.

Having watched every game of Luck's NFL career the kid is still remarkably underrated. I know that is hard to believe as he is often times seen as a poster boy and compared to the elite guys. The thing is what he has done with Indy over the last season and a half is borderline ridiculous and this year he is having an MVP season and is already as elite as they come.

Take last game for instance against the Houston Texans on the road. Luck and the Colts offence struggled mightliy the first half. What do you expect though when you are starting one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL and your starting WR's are DHB (a WR 4 at best), Ty Hilton (2nd year), and Griff Whalen (1st game). Now I know Hilton can make plays and has upside but we are talking about a 2nd year WR that is far from established. The running game was ineffective and this O line would struggle to block a CFL defence. You add Fleener to the mix and he is a second year TE that has a ton of room for growth and is still a ways away from being a good player in the NFL.

What does Luck do in that Texans game? He puts the team on his back and wills out the win. The stat line of only completing 18 of 40 passes does not look great percentage wise, but he threw for 271 yards, 3tds and no ints. This looked like a game where the majority of veteran QB's would pack it in and not only lose the game but lose it on their team and recivers along the way. Luck though is the ultimate team and natural born leader. He continues to motivate, encourage and work the side lines instilling confidence in his young team. He could have folded multiple times in that game and instead he pulls out yet another 4th quarter win. He has 10 fourth quarter come backs in only 24 NFL starts. The kid just has no quit in him and has already established himself as one of the most clutch players playing today.

The team at 6 and 2 has knocked off SB favorites Seattle, Denver, and San Fran this year.

Luck is on pace to throw for 3700 yards with 26 td's to 6 ints. He also is on pace to add 366 rushing yards and 6 rushing td's.

You could not find me 3 more important players to their team this year than Andrew Luck. It is amazing what he continues to do each week after only turning 24 years of age two months ago.

The Colts franchise have been blessed yet again.
Click to expand...
You ruined him. And you're not even around anymore! 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Yogibear
NFL announces annual award for Offensive Linemen
Replies
5
Views
435
Jppaul
J
renesauz
Make Your Call
Replies
27
Views
1K
Hot Sauce Guy
Hot Sauce Guy
Insein
Official NFL YouTube Stream w Tom Grossi, Packast
Replies
0
Views
160
Insein
Insein

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 2 (members: 0, guests: 2)
Back
Top