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Andrew Luck..... Love fest inside.... (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Carter_Can_Fly
- Start date
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
The problem with articles like these is that they assume these teams are like a Madden franchise (heck he even uses the analogy himself in the article), and neglect to consider that the people with the most say in the decision of whether or not to bench Luck are the ones trying to save their jobs so they're still around next year.
How many of you go to work thinking "hmmm, what can I do today to make myself look really bad and get fired, but make sure everything is set up nicely for my replacement to look really good?".
The case for shutting him down is painstakingly obvious if we're looking at it from a corporate viewpoint. No new info there. The question is whether Irsay has the desire to command it be done by a coach/GM that need to win some games this year when he has implied in the recent past that he will be staying out of these kinds of decisions.
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flapgreen
Footballguy
This is exactly right something I rarely see mentioned around here. People don't always make decisions that are best for the long-term future of the organization.
NREC34
Footballguy
habsfan
Footballguy
Obviously Luck =/ David Johnson in a variety of ways but it is interesting that there's a lot of traction here for "shutting Luck down" yet when the same idea was casually floated in Johnson's thread, the consensus seems to be that this kind of thinking is preposterous.
There's a huge layer of random outcome to sport that seems to get minimized in these discussions and sound decisions backfire all the time. Do you bench your starters when you've made the play-offs and can't improve your seeding? That can backfire. If an elite player gets hurt in a blowout game, it isn't long before someone incredulously wants to know why they were in there in the first place.
The best "look" for Indy and Luck is for him to play when he can play better than Brissett and do so without predictable risk of further injury.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
just saw this now...
there was an article published about brees surgery and rehab. they didn't name him outright for obvious reasons but anyone could figure out who it was based on the success they touted in the journal.
these were very different surgeries. something went terribly wrong for Luck. I have to think the surgery didn't take. often in these scenarios younger one shot and if it doesn't take you're kind if SOL
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
So there are rumors flying all around now that the Colts are looking at possibly trading TY Hilton.
I haven't had any major concerns about Luck's long-term prospects before now but if those rumors are true then I think it is a major red flag. Hilton is under contract through the end of 2020. The Colts have no reason to trade Hilton if Luck is going to be back to himself next year.
I haven't had any major concerns about Luck's long-term prospects before now but if those rumors are true then I think it is a major red flag. Hilton is under contract through the end of 2020. The Colts have no reason to trade Hilton if Luck is going to be back to himself next year.
unckeyherb
Footballguy
honestly, is there any reason to hang onto this guy at this point? I'm in a 1 player keeper, so he wouldn't be on my keeper radar anyways.
I don't think there is any concern over Lucks long term prospects. I think it just means the current FO is not as high on Hilton or thinking along the lines of what he can bring back in a trade minus his salary is better for the team. Similar to the Jimmy Graham trade as an example and countless others. Plus not sure how TY's comments last week critical of his OL might have hurried these talks along.
I really don't view this as having anything to do with Luck's long term development but should the Colts find themselves in a position to draft one a QB in round one they grade highly things might get interesting in terms of the Colts trading Luck. Not something I would predict would happen or think they should do but a viable strategy if a QB they grade highly is available because the talent on this roster is horrible and in a division that has some very young talented teams. Luck alone can fix the wasted fantasy years from guys like Hilton and Moncrief and make the team less of embarrassment and competitive, but he alone is a long way from really fixing this mess of a roster.
NREC34
Footballguy
Not in my book. Very low odds he comes back this year and even if he did you wouldn't feel real confident starting him in fantasy. You're probably just needlessly tying up a roster spot.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Does anyone remember what actually happened to him? Was it an acute injury where he got whacked in a game, or is this something deteriorating in his arm, like in the cartilage or joint?
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Sigh. Exactly what I was afraid of. Gambled on him late in a keeper league. Wasted a roster spot all this time. Now stuck trying to decide if he's worth wasting that spot the rest of the year.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
If I am remembering correctly it was an injury he sustained in a game that he continued to play through and made worse.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
He’s been killed by the colts. Hope he comes back healthy next year but there is clearly something very wrong right now.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
In my professional opinion, I think the work he had done did not take,which is why he was delayed and having pain/difficulties. This is potentially career threatening if that's the case.
Skoo
Footballguy
You ain't kidding.
It's really a shame, IMO he was without a doubt going to be an elite QB for the next 10 years.
On the bright side maybe this year they can use another 1st rounder on that WR help they so desperately need...
What's really sad is that they already screwed up the first part irreparably -- they had one of the game's brightest young QBs locked up on a rookie contract, which gave them tremendous roster flexibility (look what Seattle did with Wilson), and Grigson completely botched literally every draft pick other than Luck and Hilton while overpaying for bad free agents.
Now they're in the process of screwing up the second part. Maybe he's no longer a bargain, but he's still a great QB in a league where you need one of those to compete for a championship, only they can't keep him upright.
I'm not an Indy fan, but I am a fan of great football, and what that organization has done to waste his career so far is downright criminal. I really hope Ballard can turn things around. At least with Gale Sayers, you could blame his wasted potential on bad injury luck and primitive surgical procedures. With Luck it's purely a matter of organizational incompetence.
The General
Footballguy
Carson Wentz - Take note.
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
Yes that for sure. Also another statistic on the wrong side of surgery results. Doctors are not gods either.
xrayveggin
Footballguy
I think he had a labral tear during the 2015 season, https://www.sbnation.com/2017/10/16/16469416/andrew-luck-shoulder-injury-history-timeline-colts-return, which is a very common injury in overhand throwing athletes (read about SLAP tear). The timeline for recovery given immediately after his surgery is consistent with a labral tear. Let's consider that he had an unstable shoulder, got the labrum and joint capsule repaired. There are three possible outcomes, everything works right and a normal recover, the joint is tightened up too much and you start to get frozen shoulder - treated with aggressive PT and ends up with a prolonged recovery but with a rock solid shoulder (this was my outcome from surgery after a gym injury), or the repair doesn't take and you treat it with either conservatively with prolonged PT and strengthening trying to avoid repeat surgery or you just go straight to repeat surgery.
CalBear
Footballguy
The narrative of Luck being among the best QBs in the league is simply not borne out by the facts. From 2012-2016, among QBs with at least 1500 passing attempts (about 3 seasons worth), Luck was 23/25 in completion percentage, 16/25 in YPA, 18/25 in INT %, and 19/25 in passer rating. Andy Dalton is ahead of Luck in all those stats; Kaepernick is comparable. He was still riding on his draft hype.
Dismattle
Footballguy
Apples to Oranges comparison possibly.. "In interviews with three orthopedic surgeons from around the country, it was made clear that this second surgery means Miller is in for a longer recovery with a greater risk of having issues. All three also emphasized they had no details of Miller's injury." Personally, I'm on the same page, especially if it involves trading the player! There is a lot of risk involved.. One team may want to examine just as much as another cares to know results of an actual 2nd surgery. Lets not even discuss potential for withholding info http://www.cleveland.com/osu/index.ssf/2014/08/my_eyebrows_raised_a_little_to.html
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
OK, I'm generally pro-advanced stats, and I agree with the people who say QB wins is one of the most overrated numbers out there (Mark Sanchez, anyone?)
Still, in Luck's first three seasons the Colts won 33 games, three playoff games, and made the conference championship. If you don't credit that to him, who do you credit? Their defense? Their running game? Their coach?!?!?!
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
CalBear
Footballguy
Colin Kaepernick went 25-14 in his first 2.5 years as a starter, and went to two conference championships and the Super Bowl.OK, I'm generally pro-advanced stats, and I agree with the people who say QB wins is one of the most overrated numbers out there (Mark Sanchez, anyone?)
Still, in Luck's first three seasons the Colts won 33 games, three playoff games, and made the conference championship. If you don't credit that to him, who do you credit? Their defense? Their running game? Their coach?!?!?!
If the Colts' success in 2012-2014 was due to Luck, who was their mediocrity in 2015-2016 due to? Luck went 10-12 in those years.
By the way, Luck's playoff stats are even worse than his regular season stats:
147/260 (56.5%), 9 TD, 12 INT, 7.0 YPA, rating 70.8.
By comparison, Kapernick in the playoffs:
94/162 (58.0%), 7 TD 5 INT, 8.5 YPA, rating 87.3.
Among QBs with at least 150 playoff passing attempts since 2012, Luck is 11/11 in completion percentage, INT% and passer rating.
Um, he was out for half of 2015 and played 2016 with an injury that eventually required surgery. Also, have you seen Indy's defense/o-line? That they managed to go 8-8 in those two years with that roster was a miracle.
As for Kaepernick, I'm no hater, but he had a strong roster top to bottom, including a future HoF RB, one of the league's best Ds and a coach who's consistently produced winners at every stop in his career. Put Luck on the Niners and ... well for one thing Harbaugh would probably still be coaching the team.
Let's turn this around: If it wasn't Luck, to what do you attribute Indy's 33-15 record in his first three years?
CalBear
Footballguy
10-12 was Luck's record in 2015-2016. The Colts actually did much better in 2015 with Hasselbeck at QB (Luck 2-5, Hasselbeck 5-3). Hasselbeck (at age 40) also was better in every statistical category than Luck.
Football's a team game. One of the reasons the Colts did OK in 2012-2014 is they were in probably the weakest division in football.
Aznflyer14
Footballguy
The real question is... Is Luck an excellent buy-low candidate for dynasty league?
I have in a salary cap dynasty league and I can't give him away. We have a $500 salary cap and I drafted him for $70, but think I may drop him and try to pickup cheaper
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
I tried selling when he was practicing weeks ago, nobody was interested. I was trying to acquire a different QB though.
BearsFan4Life
Footballguy
Dynasty... I am looking ahead to next year.. would you deal Brees for Luck. Trubisky my only other qb?
What your analysis is missing is this
https://www.stampedeblue.com/2015/5/19/8625013/andrew-luck-has-been-knocked-down-more-than-any-other-quarterback-over-past-three-years-colts
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
The colts whole roster was awful the 49ers was great. I mean are you trolling or just never watched a game?
I'm assuming he's trolling. He's been around awhile. I can usually spot the real dumb ones and I would have noticed him long ago if he was this unintelligent. So yeah, he's just trolling
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Have an offer of Luck for my Carr in dynasty and have no idea what to do. Not in love with Carr in general, have Brady for the short term, but it feels like potentially throwing away value. This is an offer I would have snapped up 6 months ago, but this injury stuff with Luck is scary and so up in the air.
