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Anybody buying on Demarco Murray? (1 Viewer)

Rotoworld:

Yahoo's Rand Getlin reports free agent DeMarco Murray appears confident he'll get $8 million per year on the open market.

That would match LeSean McCoy's new deal with the Bills. It's a number the Cowboys clearly aren't willing to pay, otherwise they would have already done so. Considering how quiet Murray's market has been thus far, we're unsure it's a price anyone is willing to meet. Murray has been most closely linked to the Jaguars.


Source: Rand Getlin on Twitter
Mar 9 - 1:44 PM
Profootballtalk reports free agent DeMarco Murray is "willing to move on" from the Cowboys.


A source tells PFT that Murray "plans to take his time and be methodical in his thought processes." To us, it sounds like Murray's market isn't developing the way he thought it would. The "willing to move on" nugget comes across as an empty threat to a team that clearly isn't willing to meet Murray's price, which is reported to be $8 million per year. If Murray has other suitors, they're remaining mostly under the radar.


Source: Profootballtalk on NBCSports.com
Mar 9 - 2:27 PM
 
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Gettting interesting with RB's.

Lynch Big $$$$, Shady McCoy Big $$$, Ingram OK $, Gore either in PHL or Indy gets good$ for his age.

So what about Murray? Jax, OAK?? 5 years around $35ML with 18-20 guaranteed is my thoughts. Someone will pay.

I think Dallas has made a good public face saying they want to resign if they are close in money. Doubt that happens.

It was fun to watch last year.

I think in the end we lose Murray. We draft an RB in the first 3 rounds and pickupa body off the street like Ridley, Mathews, SJackson. Pair the vet with the rookie behind that line. Good fiscal moves at this point for Dallas.

 
Murray to Jax or Oak just makes sense given their current caps. At this point, I'd be shocked he ends up back in Dallas. This may be one of the few times Dallas makes a wise business decision.

 
Murray to Jax or Oak just makes sense given their current caps. At this point, I'd be shocked he ends up back in Dallas. This may be one of the few times Dallas makes a wise business decision.
I am thinking it might have been wise to not spend what they did on Beasley, and get Murray back. Call me crazy, but it just seems that would have been better.

As a Latavius owner, praying NOT Oakland :thumbdown:

 
Murray to Jax or Oak just makes sense given their current caps. At this point, I'd be shocked he ends up back in Dallas. This may be one of the few times Dallas makes a wise business decision.
I am thinking it might have been wise to not spend what they did on Beasley, and get Murray back. Call me crazy, but it just seems that would have been better.

As a Latavius owner, praying NOT Oakland :thumbdown:
You're crazy.

 
Murray to Jax or Oak just makes sense given their current caps. At this point, I'd be shocked he ends up back in Dallas. This may be one of the few times Dallas makes a wise business decision.
I am thinking it might have been wise to not spend what they did on Beasley, and get Murray back. Call me crazy, but it just seems that would have been better.

As a Latavius owner, praying NOT Oakland :thumbdown:
I've seen this pointed out about Beasley several times now by different people. I don't think people understand signing Beasley SAVED them cap space for this year.

 
Murray to Jax or Oak just makes sense given their current caps. At this point, I'd be shocked he ends up back in Dallas. This may be one of the few times Dallas makes a wise business decision.
I am thinking it might have been wise to not spend what they did on Beasley, and get Murray back. Call me crazy, but it just seems that would have been better.

As a Latavius owner, praying NOT Oakland :thumbdown:
I've seen this pointed out about Beasley several times now by different people. I don't think people understand signing Beasley SAVED them cap space for this year.
:homer: :homer: :homer:

I missed that apparently

 
mike fisher @fishsports · 31m 31 minutes ago

@CowboyJobu: just got real DeMarco deleted all references to #Cowboys on twitter. Shots fired! Playing hardball for a better deal?” / sure
=============

Hmnnn. DeMarco Murray just deleted ALL references to the Dallas Cowboys on his twitter account, hmnnnn.
Schefter on Mike & Mike said the Cowboys haven't called Murray's camp in a week, and Murray's irritated about it. Apparently in addition to the money, he wants someone to cuddle with as well.

I'd be shocked if he's back in Dallas at this point -- Oakland, Jacksonville, Tennessee seem to make the most sense. Atlanta would be a great situation, but I don't see them paying the coin it'd take to land Murray.

As for Dallas, I think you're looking at some combination of lower-end FA (Ridley, Mathews, etc.) with current roster guys (I'll get shouted out of here, but they did keep Randle through multiple off-field situations where most teams would've cut a mediocre player, which tells me they seem to think he has talent), and perhaps a rookie.

IF JERRY HAS TRULY CHANGED, and is allowing his scouting staff and coaches to really influence the direction and shape of the roster, Murray is a goner. And frankly, with that line, nearly anyone could be an RB1/RB2 borderline guy... even a combination of Randle and a Rookie (2nd or 3rd rounder after the reinvest again on the OL, which has been a rumored pick here in TX).

 
mike fisher @fishsports · 31m 31 minutes ago

@CowboyJobu: just got real DeMarco deleted all references to #Cowboys on twitter. Shots fired! Playing hardball for a better deal?” / sure
=============

Hmnnn. DeMarco Murray just deleted ALL references to the Dallas Cowboys on his twitter account, hmnnnn.
Schefter on Mike & Mike said the Cowboys haven't called Murray's camp in a week, and Murray's irritated about it. Apparently in addition to the money, he wants someone to cuddle with as well.

I'd be shocked if he's back in Dallas at this point -- Oakland, Jacksonville, Tennessee seem to make the most sense. Atlanta would be a great situation, but I don't see them paying the coin it'd take to land Murray.

As for Dallas, I think you're looking at some combination of lower-end FA (Ridley, Mathews, etc.) with current roster guys (I'll get shouted out of here, but they did keep Randle through multiple off-field situations where most teams would've cut a mediocre player, which tells me they seem to think he has talent), and perhaps a rookie.

IF JERRY HAS TRULY CHANGED, and is allowing his scouting staff and coaches to really influence the direction and shape of the roster, Murray is a goner. And frankly, with that line, nearly anyone could be an RB1/RB2 borderline guy... even a combination of Randle and a Rookie (2nd or 3rd rounder after the reinvest again on the OL, which has been a rumored pick here in TX).
Well to play devil's advocate. :stirspot:

The Boys have enough cap space to match any offer RB DeMarco Murray should receive.

==========================

Cowboys Nation @CowboysNation · 12h 12 hours ago

Some are saying $8m in current cap space. Some saying $11m. The difference is whether Dunbar and Chris Jones are being counted, so you know.
==========================

So its possible that the Boys might want him to shop around and get a few offers to establish his market and then match it basically making other teams do their negotiations for them.

 
I don't disagree with you - but it's plausible the Cowboys don't WANT him back after all those touches, and instead would prefer to move on and use their cap space elsewhere. Murray is going to be overpaid in the market in all likelihood, especially considering the workload he just had (and his injury history). To an extent, Dallas often caters to their legions of Wal-Mart fans in the media sometimes... wouldn't be at all shocked if this is a case of talking out of both sides of their mouth.

If they wanted him back and wanted the market to set his value, why wouldn't they keep in touch? Why not massage the ego of arguably your best player from last year, encouraging him to go find the best offer, but make sure he gives you the chance to match?

 
I don't disagree with you - but it's plausible the Cowboys don't WANT him back after all those touches, and instead would prefer to move on and use their cap space elsewhere. Murray is going to be overpaid in the market in all likelihood, especially considering the workload he just had (and his injury history). To an extent, Dallas often caters to their legions of Wal-Mart fans in the media sometimes... wouldn't be at all shocked if this is a case of talking out of both sides of their mouth.

If they wanted him back and wanted the market to set his value, why wouldn't they keep in touch? Why not massage the ego of arguably your best player from last year, encouraging him to go find the best offer, but make sure he gives you the chance to match?
I think they were massaging him plenty trying to get him to sign before free agency and they expressed lots of interest in re-signing him. They have the cap space but right now it seems like his camp is asking too much and they aren't getting offers, right now, at their asking price.

http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/2015/03/free-agency-roundup-former-gm-says-demarco-murrays-asking-price-is-too-high.html/

...The Cowboys made it clear that they were going to allow Murray to test the market and attempt to match. While there has already been plenty of negotiating throughout the league involving several big names over the last two days, Murray hasn’t been involved.

“Here’s the deal with DeMarco Murray, his asking price at this point is too high,” Six-time NFL Executive of the Year Bill Polian said Monday on ESPN. “The agents are saying, ‘Pay me or I’m going out on the market.’ Everybody that they’ve talked to has said, ‘Go ahead. We’re not willing to reach your number now.’ When his number comes down into the seven, perhaps even $8 million range, if the structure is OK, he will get a job. He’s a very good player. They just out-priced the market.”

When Jerry Jones discussed re-signing Murray last month at the NFL Combine, the Cowboys owner said there wasn’t a number he had in mind in negotiations, but there was a range and a bracket.

“We want DeMarco enough,” Jones said, “that I got some serious flexibility in my bracket.”
They obviously haven't gotten any offers for whatever they are asking so once they come down then it seems the Boys have the space to match any 'reasonable' offers he will get.

 
The Curse of 370

All of once (Dickerson in 1984) has a running back come back from a 370-plus-carry season to gain more yardage the following year.

Of the backs who gained fewer rushing yards the next season, only five saw that yardage decrease by less than 20 percent. Three of those players (Walter Payton, Emmitt Smith and John Riggins, who was out of the NFL two years after his 375-carry 1983 season) are already in the Hall of Fame. LaDainian Tomlinson (who was 23 when he racked up 372 carries in 2002) will likely join them one day.

So we have six of 28 instances where a running back either topped the big year or suffered what could be called a "modest" decline.

Meanwhile, 12 of 28 times (including Ricky Williams' retirement in 2004) running backs who carried the ball more than 370 yards in a season saw their production drop by half or more the following year. Nineteen missed time the following season. Five missed at least half the following campaign, and that's without including Williams' year away playing Xbox and eating Pop-Tarts.

The average drop-off over those 28 follow-up seasons (not counting Williams)? A staggering 39.2 percent.
 
The Curse of 370

All of once (Dickerson in 1984) has a running back come back from a 370-plus-carry season to gain more yardage the following year.

Of the backs who gained fewer rushing yards the next season, only five saw that yardage decrease by less than 20 percent. Three of those players (Walter Payton, Emmitt Smith and John Riggins, who was out of the NFL two years after his 375-carry 1983 season) are already in the Hall of Fame. LaDainian Tomlinson (who was 23 when he racked up 372 carries in 2002) will likely join them one day.

So we have six of 28 instances where a running back either topped the big year or suffered what could be called a "modest" decline.

Meanwhile, 12 of 28 times (including Ricky Williams' retirement in 2004) running backs who carried the ball more than 370 yards in a season saw their production drop by half or more the following year. Nineteen missed time the following season. Five missed at least half the following campaign, and that's without including Williams' year away playing Xbox and eating Pop-Tarts.

The average drop-off over those 28 follow-up seasons (not counting Williams)? A staggering 39.2 percent.
While I do worry about Murray holding up (mostly due to his running style) the "curse of 370" is the biggest load of bunk ever.

When a back had over 370 carries, of course they had a "career year" and would likely regress the next season. There's also been exceptions (that maybe had lesser but still great seasons) that get ignored.

For one thing they only look at regular season carries. How about all the years guys like Emmitt Smith was going deep into the playoffs year in and year out? He must have topped 370 touches.

 
I think they end up with ADP and continue to add OL and DL via the draft.

ADP behind that line with added depth would be tough to stop.
They won't end up with RB Adrian Peterson for this simple reason:

http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2015/02/20/peterson-to-cowboys-dream-suddenly-viable/

...Peterson’s current 2015 cap hit stands at $15.4 million. $12.75 million is base, $.25 million is workout bonus and $2.4 million is prorated bonus. The base and workout bonus would disappear if released, leaving just the $2.4 million in dead money. That would give the Vikings the net result of $13 million in savings if Peterson insists upon not re-doing a deal and expresses continued dislike of his surrounding and they released him.
They not only do not have that sort of cap space and they won't pay that to their own younger guy who lead the league in rushing last year and knows the system so cross ADP off the list because its just not happening.

 
I think they end up with ADP and continue to add OL and DL via the draft.

ADP behind that line with added depth would be tough to stop.
They won't end up with RB Adrian Peterson for this simple reason:http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2015/02/20/peterson-to-cowboys-dream-suddenly-viable/

...Petersons current 2015 cap hit stands at $15.4 million. $12.75 million is base, $.25 million is workout bonus and $2.4 million is prorated bonus. The base and workout bonus would disappear if released, leaving just the $2.4 million in dead money. That would give the Vikings the net result of $13 million in savings if Peterson insists upon not re-doing a deal and expresses continued dislike of his surrounding and they released him.
They not only do not have that sort of cap space and they won't pay that to their own younger guy who lead the league in rushing last year and knows the system so cross ADP off the list because its just not happening.
ADP could restructure and/or be cut.

This is just speculation of course not the hard-core facts such as your last sentence.

 
Rotoworld:

DeMarco Murray - RB - Cowboys

The Arizona Republic's Kent Somers reports the Cardinals "aren't interested" in free agent DeMarco Murray.

The Cardinals keep getting lumped in with Murray, but we haven't heard anything out of Arizona to suggest they're truly in the mix. It may come down to the Jaguars and Cowboys with the Jaguars possibly being able to lure Murray with plenty of cash. The Cowboys will sit back and see how the market develops.

Related: Cardinals

Source: Kent Somers on Twitter

Mar 10 - 10:51 AM
 
Rotoworld:

According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, the Cardinals, Jaguars and "maybe" Bucs are in the mix for free agent DeMarco Murray.

It appears the Cowboys will let Murray test the market before coming in with an offer (if they even make one). The highly-aggressive and cap-rich Jaguars make the most sense as they are likely willing to overpay for an upgrade on Toby Gerhart/Denard Robinson. The Cardinals would clearly give Murray the best chance to win. Coming off a rushing title and 497 touches, DeMarco is reportedly seeking something in the neighborhood of $8 million in average annual salary.

Related: Cardinals, Jaguars, Buccaneers

Source: Ian Rapoport on Twitter

Mar 10 - 10:20 AM
 
Rotoworld:

The Tampa Bay Times' Rick Stroud confirms the Buccaneers have had "discussions" about free agent DeMarco Murray.

Stroud cautions to not get "overly excited," but it's interesting after NFL Network mentioned the Bucs as a potential suitor for Murray this morning. To that point, Tampa Bay had not been connected to Murray at all. The Cardinals, Jaguars, and Cowboys are also thought to be in the running. If Murray landed in Tampa Bay, Doug Martin would probably become available for trade.

Related: Buccaneers

Source: Rick Stroud on Twitter

Mar 10 - 10:32 AM
 
This is starting to be a pretty rough deal for Murray. Has there ever been a more underappreciated running back???

He can either stay in a good position or go to a bunch of really awful franchises. Tough break.

 
The Curse of 370

All of once (Dickerson in 1984) has a running back come back from a 370-plus-carry season to gain more yardage the following year.

Of the backs who gained fewer rushing yards the next season, only five saw that yardage decrease by less than 20 percent. Three of those players (Walter Payton, Emmitt Smith and John Riggins, who was out of the NFL two years after his 375-carry 1983 season) are already in the Hall of Fame. LaDainian Tomlinson (who was 23 when he racked up 372 carries in 2002) will likely join them one day.

So we have six of 28 instances where a running back either topped the big year or suffered what could be called a "modest" decline.

Meanwhile, 12 of 28 times (including Ricky Williams' retirement in 2004) running backs who carried the ball more than 370 yards in a season saw their production drop by half or more the following year. Nineteen missed time the following season. Five missed at least half the following campaign, and that's without including Williams' year away playing Xbox and eating Pop-Tarts.

The average drop-off over those 28 follow-up seasons (not counting Williams)? A staggering 39.2 percent.
While I do worry about Murray holding up (mostly due to his running style) the "curse of 370" is the biggest load of bunk ever.

When a back had over 370 carries, of course they had a "career year" and would likely regress the next season. There's also been exceptions (that maybe had lesser but still great seasons) that get ignored.

For one thing they only look at regular season carries. How about all the years guys like Emmitt Smith was going deep into the playoffs year in and year out? He must have topped 370 touches.
Including the playoffs, Emmitt went over 370 carries four times - his last time was at age 26, the same age Murray was last year. At age 27 he had 327/1204/12 (3.7 YPC).

The exact number '370' isn't important, but there's a history of high carry backs at Murray's age having a steep dropoff in their career. Everyone thought MJD had a lot left after his 1606/8 season at age 26 but he never topped 1000 yards again. Foster has struggled to stay healthy after his huge age 26 season with 351 carries.

 
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This is starting to be a pretty rough deal for Murray. Has there ever been a more underappreciated running back???

He can either stay in a good position or go to a bunch of really awful franchises. Tough break.
It's more about how franchises are wising up to the fact that RB success is more dependent on situation/line than talent. Dallas knows they can get a good 4.4 ypc with the RBs they already have and if they want to spend more on the position, they have AP as an option who is more talented. Murray isn't under-appreciated, he's just not getting $8m/year from a good team.

 
This is starting to be a pretty rough deal for Murray. Has there ever been a more underappreciated running back???

He can either stay in a good position or go to a bunch of really awful franchises. Tough break.
It's more about how franchises are wising up to the fact that RB success is more dependent on situation/line than talent. Dallas knows they can get a good 4.4 ypc with the RBs they already have and if they want to spend more on the position, they have AP as an option who is more talented. Murray isn't under-appreciated, he's just not getting $8m/year from a good team.
I think its more about how little impact top RBs were to the most successful NFL franchises for such a long time that they finally wised up.

The issue is that pendulum has swung so far in over-correcting that flaw that now we see errors such as the case with DeMarco Murray where a team suddenly improved significantly across the board when he set a club record for rushing the football and they had success on the field when everyone felt they would struggle defensively. A dominate RB who was durable and productive like DeMarco Murray was last year would help control the clock and allow offensive coaches to manage field position to win games.

I think some people have seriously undervalued how much impact that DeMarco Murray had on the team last year. Stat guys don't use hard to compute derivative numbers but the lack of talent on Dallas' defense seemed to point to a losing record but they turned it around and its extremely difficult to try and work out how much of an impact DeMarco Murray had in assisting that defense. We know he set a club record and lead the league in rushing and suddenly the Boys were significant again. They had a QB with a broken back and a defense that everyone felt would be terrible but won games. I do not think it was a coincidence.

 
This is starting to be a pretty rough deal for Murray. Has there ever been a more underappreciated running back???

He can either stay in a good position or go to a bunch of really awful franchises. Tough break.
It's more about how franchises are wising up to the fact that RB success is more dependent on situation/line than talent. Dallas knows they can get a good 4.4 ypc with the RBs they already have and if they want to spend more on the position, they have AP as an option who is more talented. Murray isn't under-appreciated, he's just not getting $8m/year from a good team.
I think its more about how little impact top RBs were to the most successful NFL franchises for such a long time that they finally wised up.

The issue is that pendulum has swung so far in over-correcting that flaw that now we see errors such as the case with DeMarco Murray where a team suddenly improved significantly across the board when he set a club record for rushing the football and they had success on the field when everyone felt they would struggle defensively. A dominate RB who was durable and productive like DeMarco Murray was last year would help control the clock and allow offensive coaches to manage field position to win games.

I think some people have seriously undervalued how much impact that DeMarco Murray had on the team last year. Stat guys don't use hard to compute derivative numbers but the lack of talent on Dallas' defense seemed to point to a losing record but they turned it around and its extremely difficult to try and work out how much of an impact DeMarco Murray had in assisting that defense. We know he set a club record and lead the league in rushing and suddenly the Boys were significant again. They had a QB with a broken back and a defense that everyone felt would be terrible but won games. I do not think it was a coincidence.
durable is my issue

he's been the picture of fragility until last season, where he set records for the number of carries

i just have trouble seeing him rebound from that and look as good, or finishing the season

 
put another way

the question has often been asked, do the cowboys think Murray's production can be replaced?

I say the answer is no, but I also say there's another question

can murray's production be repeated?

I say no there as well

so the question Dallas has to answer is how much of what murray would do next season can they replace, and is murray worth the extra cost?

tough questions.

 
Per RW:

ESPN Dallas' Todd Archer reports the Cowboys had discussions with free agent DeMarco Murray last night.

Archer is unaware of the "tenor" of talks, but can confirm Cowboys VP Stephen Jones at least spoke to Murray. We suspect the "tenor" wasn't good, as Murray has since removed the Cowboys' logo from his Twitter account. On the other hand, the fact that Jones reached out is a sign Dallas maintains interest.
 
That would be wild!! Have to imagine Philly is trying to make Dallas pay more than they would like for him...Can't see Dallas letting him go to a division rival...to go from 3/12 for Gore to 4/28 for Murray is a big jump

 
That would be wild!! Have to imagine Philly is trying to make Dallas pay more than they would like for him...Can't see Dallas letting him go to a division rival...to go from 3/12 for Gore to 4/28 for Murray is a big jump

 
Ladianian was saying something earlier about concerns he had with Murray being able to run effectively out of the shotgun formation if he went to Philly. I got distracted when he elaborated as to why he had this concern, only heard something about his shoulders getting squared up. I don't think there are any concerns about him being slow. Quickness maybe, but I don't think much to be concerned about with his speed.

 
Rotoworld:

ESPN's Adam Caplan reports the Raiders remain interested in free agent DeMarco Murray despite signing Roy Helu.

Helu is a role player. Murray is a feature back, one whose acquisition by the Raiders would throw a devastating wrench into the 2015 fantasy outlook of Latavius Murray. It's also possible the DeMarco interest is agent-driven, intended to drive up his price tag in talks with the Cowboys and Jaguars. (Or at least, that's what Dynasty owners of Latavius should be hoping.)

Mar 10 - 9:48 PM

Source: Adam Caplan on Twitter
 
Murray spending the first night of FA (aka the eve of his first big payday) with Dallas personnel has gotta mean he's leaning towards staying, right? No visits reported and he's the top RB on the market by far.

 
Murray spending the first night of FA (aka the eve of his first big payday) with Dallas personnel has gotta mean he's leaning towards staying, right? No visits reported and he's the top RB on the market by far.
Not sure anything means anything anymore. Until they sign, really, nothing is an indication of anything IMO.

Fun to try and figure out, but it's like trying to figure out of the coin I am about to flip will be heads or tails, then flipping it.

 

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