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Anyone else singing the Lineup Blues this season? (3 Viewers)

sushinsky4tsar

Footballguy
I had to do the math to make sure I'm as terrible at setting lineups this year as it feels like. It's definitely not in my head. My performance has been truly putrid, particularly at the WR position:


Waddle: 11.56 season avg, My 4 starts = 9.2
Higgins: 11.59 avg, My 3 starts = 6.63
AJB: 9.19 avg, My 3 starts = 7.63
Tetairoa: 11.44 avg, My 5 starts = 10.98
Egbuka: 13.31 avg, My 7 starts = 13.17
Lamb: I'm safe, every week start

Jeanty: 13.31 avg, My 8 starts = 12.8
Judkins: 11.78 avg, My 5 starts = 11.2
Vidal: 8.86 avg, My 1 start = 3
CMC: I'm safe, every week start

Mahomes: 24.6 avg, My 7 starts 25.14
Maye: 22.8 avg, My 4 starts 23.23


I should have the advantage of utilizing great depth and weekly options that allow me to flex on attractive matchups while sitting out potential pitfalls. QB is the only position where it's going to plan. I have somehow managed to extract less points than the season average for EVERY RB and WR that factors into my starting lineup decisions. In some cases, substantially less for Waddle, Higgins, and AJB. Timing Waddle and Higgins production has been a perpetual problem for me that goes back years.

I feel like I've been pretty vanilla on methodology. I used to do a lot more podcasting with guys like Charchian breaking down all the matchups. I have had a lot less time for that and definitely felt like the results were mixed or neutral even when I went to that effort. I tend to look at fantasy points allowed by position for the defenses that my highest scoring players are going against. I know that's not the most nuanced, but if it looks okay or good for my highest scorers, and I can see some potential for a shootout, I will check that against the consensus rankings on fantasypros and their recommended lineup generally agrees with what I'm thinking. Occasionally, I will change it up and go with gut instinct on guys that are relatively close in the rankings. You can imagine how those gambles have worked out. Get burned. Which scares me off from making the executive decision the following week that would have benefitted me. With that said, I generally keep it vanilla, not skewing greatly from fantasypros "expert consensus".

I know this isn't a huge sample size and things eventually regress to the mean. But the results have been truly abysmal 11 weeks into the season. Is there any one analyst or app you're using in 2025 that's actually getting you to the right place on more of these decisions than throwing a dart? Throwing a dart could only help my cause compared to what I've been doing. And yes, I'm definitely ready for a best ball league to get away from always making the wrong call.
 
this year? Seems like my lineup efficiency is always round 70%. Either my roosters are too good that everything is a coin flip or I don't know what I am doing. Could be either one.
 
I've started using the George Costanza method. Whenever I have a close call between two players, I decide which is best based on the matchups, all the expert opinions, etc. then I do the opposite. That seems to work better for me.

Yes, I've been here and might be ready to re-institute The Constanza. It almost makes me wonder if there's something to the fact that if a matchup looks juicy on paper to some rube playing fantasy, you can bet the defensive coordinator is equally concerned and provides that much more help. So maybe the play is looking for the most mediocre matchup and not targeting the defense giving up the second most fantasy points to opposing WRs?

I definitely look at Vegas implied projected score at playoff time and maybe I need to bring more of that into my regular season picks.
 
With all the injuries (which really happen every year), I can definitely see the few best ball aficionados in my league pounding the table this offseason. I’d fold my league before we went that way though - takes all the guesswork and intuition out.
 
Waddle: 11.56 season avg, My 4 starts = 9.2
Higgins: 11.59 avg, My 3 starts = 6.63
AJB: 9.19 avg, My 3 starts = 7.63
Tetairoa: 11.44 avg, My 5 starts = 10.98
Egbuka: 13.31 avg, My 7 starts = 13.17
Lamb: I'm safe, every week start

Jeanty: 13.31 avg, My 8 starts = 12.8
Judkins: 11.78 avg, My 5 starts = 11.2
Vidal: 8.86 avg, My 1 start = 3
CMC: I'm safe, every week start

Mahomes: 24.6 avg, My 7 starts 25.14
Maye: 22.8 avg, My 4 starts 23.23
Maybe have a ****tier team and you wouldn't have so many decisions.
 
this year? Seems like my lineup efficiency is always round 70%. Either my roosters are too good that everything is a coin flip or I don't know what I am doing. Could be either one.

I'm ringing in at 78% and I'm surprised it's that good, but it's still among the worst. The worst team in our league that's low-key tanking is at 71%.

I feel like efficiency is mostly overrated in dynasty since it can just be a sign of good depth. I like it better in redraft leagues.

What isn't a fluke is figuring out a way to get less points from every single RB and WR when starting them than their season average. I wouldn't be able to come close to replicating that if I was trying to do it.


I truly believe Waddle and Higgins are among the worst players you can have for trying to capture points in a given week. Your only defense is considering them set it and forget it starters and just rolling with the down weeks. I also think Jameson Williams would probably be high on this list.

AJ Brown, I'm not even going to consider starting the rest of the way unless it's an exceptionally "squeaky wheel" week.
 
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I truly believe Waddle and Higgins are among the worst players you can have for trying to capture points in a given week. Your only defense is considering them set it and forget it starters and just rolling with the down weeks. I also think Jameson Williams would probably be high on this list.
I have all three guys. I have been ok at it but this week was not ideal. I also have Egbuka and played Egbuka and Waddle and had Higgins and Jamo on the bench. 0-2 on that lineup decision.
 
I feel like efficiency is mostly overrated in dynasty since it can just be a sign of good depth. I like it better in redraft leagues.
I agree. I am always in the lower middle of the pack but my Potential Points is always one of the highest. I have a really deep bench so am always beating my head against a wall. I see other team that have a near perfect efficiency but they have no lineup decisions as there bench doesn't score at all. Those teams usually in the middle to bottom of the pack as one or two injuries for a few weeks and they can't score. I am actually better off sometimes when my players are ruled out. I can't make a bad lineup decision that way.
 
One of the most frustrating parts of fantasy football.

This week we had Josh Jacobs, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Ja'Maar Chase all barely score anything.
 
This is why I only play best ball.
I get the allure of BB leagues, but to me there is so much luck involved in FF that it would take some of the gut-wrenching decisions out and just throw spaghetti at the wall. I like trying to analyze and come up with my best weekly roster. Sometimes it works, sometimes not - but same for every other team.
 
12 teamer redraft. I lost 2 weeks by 0.5 and 0.3 and now I’m out of the playoffs. The 0.5 loss came to me tinkering kickers due to the weather Friday evening.
 
WRs are tough this year. i've got a lot of good/not elite ones. Trying to pick the right ones each week is infuriating. And trying to upgrade to an elite one is tough.
Like REALLY tough. Almost as tough as trying to trade for Jonathan Taylor or CMC at RB. Having that consistent WR that gets you 6+ receptions literally every week along with 30 point plus ceiling, that's gold in PPR leagues.

Sometimes you are just going to pick the wrong WR, that's the price of having WR depth. Just too many variables that impact WR production.
 
Patrick Thorman
Jeff Ratcliffe
Joe Bond
Nathan Jahnke

Expert names I recognize with success in the '24 and '25 fantasypros rankings. I've been lazy this year only looking at overall ECR without selecting the experts. I used to check Charchian's, which I believe are now paywalled. I still check fantasy footballers, but they haven't steered me well on the coin flips this season.

Gotta try something new with results this poor. If there are other experts that you consider must-include in an expert consensus ranking, I'd love to hear them.
 
Patrick Thorman
Jeff Ratcliffe
Joe Bond
Nathan Jahnke

Expert names I recognize with success in the '24 and '25 fantasypros rankings. I've been lazy this year only looking at overall ECR without selecting the experts. I used to check Charchian's, which I believe are now paywalled. I still check fantasy footballers, but they haven't steered me well on the coin flips this season.

Gotta try something new with results this poor. If there are other experts that you consider must-include in an expert consensus ranking, I'd love to hear them.
Around these parts sort for Trembly. I really wish Henry did weekly projections.
 
My problem this year, has been picking up the hot player - that I should probably start in the flex, the week I picked him up.

Instead, I pick up said player - think about it way too much, and then bench him for the “safer” player I already had.

Without fail, the hot waiver guy blows off (in a good way) on my bench because I was too much of a pu55y to start the lower “projected” guy.

The next week that waiver add either has a bye or I have other options coming off bye.

Gotta love it.
 
This is why I only play best ball.
I get the allure of BB leagues, but to me there is so much luck involved in FF that it would take some of the gut-wrenching decisions out and just throw spaghetti at the wall. I like trying to analyze and come up with my best weekly roster. Sometimes it works, sometimes not - but same for every other team.
To each their own, I hate that part and it's the reason I stopped playing for a while until I found best ball.
I'd also waste an hour or two on Sundays watching injuries and making changes distracting from family stuff.
(Also takes out the randomness / problem with low scores from in game injuries.)
 
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This is why I only play best ball.
I get the allure of BB leagues, but to me there is so much luck involved in FF that it would take some of the gut-wrenching decisions out and just throw spaghetti at the wall. I like trying to analyze and come up with my best weekly roster. Sometimes it works, sometimes not - but same for every other team.
To each their own, I hate that part and it's the reason I stopped playing for a while until I found best ball.
I'd also waste an hour or two on Sundays watching injuries and making changes distracting from family stuff.
(Also takes out the randomness / problem with low scores from in game injuries.)
I almost don't understand the point of playing if I am not making lineup decisions. If I am going to be playing I want to be actively playing (for better or worse). Best ball to me is akin to auto draft. But to each their own.
 
Lineup decisions are definitely a big facet of what I still think of when I think of "fantasy", along with weekly drop-adds. Trades are big when they happen, but way more fickle and not part of the weekly process. Overall trade volume has been dipping in my redraft leagues, but they continue to flow in dynasty.

I'm pretty sure the leagues I'm in will remain lineup leagues for as long as they're going, but I can't help but think that best ball would be more appropriate for the 20-year redraft league I commission. Activity in the league chat is way down. We've had one trade (mine), when we'd used to have a half-dozen. Everyone still shows up for the live draft and has a good time with it. I'm enjoying the weekly grind of in-season maintenance a lot less than I once did, and I think a lot of leaguemates are getting there too.
On the other hand, getting burned on lineup decisions isn't helping me personally enjoy fantasy any more this season, but I do think the weekly frustration or glee it creates is a big part of the in-season experience.

I know double-header head-to-head / top half leagues have become fashionable, but I still prefer strictly head-to-head for the same reason. I want the narrow losses to sting and the wins to be all that matter and euphoric. I don't want a weekly consolation prize of "I lost my matchup but finished in the top half of the league". Points are enough of a consolation in the high scoring losses and often play a huge factor in the playoff tiebreak and seeding when it's all said and done. I also think giving the last wildcard spot to the highest scoring team is a mistake some commissioners are making. It has created a situation for me where my weekly result doesn't matter beyond points scored. An early season win might prove to be my downfall. There's a realistic possibility that intentionally losing my last game to propel that opponent into a normal wildcard spot might be my best bet for making the playoffs via points wildcard. Not wise to have different teams in the same league playing for different things.

Injuries are probably the biggest thing killing the joy of fantasy for me. Some adversity was always good, but losing my top pick early in the season for two of the last three seasons in my main redraft league is becoming a huge buzzkill. So many cool storylines in the NFL and fantasy that just get snuffed out. Nabers, Skattebo, and now a Dart concussion all coming from just one NFL team. I used to love sitting down for Thurs/Sunday/Monday night games if I had a guy in my lineup or even if I was playing against someone. It just doesn't interest me anymore. Maybe I'll watch the 10-minute extended highlights like I'm watching the game live, but I usually don't even bother doing that. Just check the scoreboard and shrug to see another 6.4 point game from Jeanty and another wrong lineup decision.
 
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Opposite problem here. I've been much better at picking my lineup, but everybody has their best week against us. I'm 3-8 but have scored more points than my 8-3 division leader.
 
6 leagues. There's some weird symmetry though.

My best team on paper (dyno- 14 teamer) is currently 5-6 and on the outside looking in with 3 weeks left. 79% efficiency. AND ALSO 3rd in points scored 3rd in "all play record", 1st in potential points. Brock Purdy being back will help. Have Bijan, Breece, Kyren, Javonte, Warren, CeeDee, ARSB- lost Kraft... TBD if I can squeak into the playoffs and be a tough out.
My worst team on paper (dyno- 12 teamer) is currently 5-6- lowest in points scored, 2nd lowest in potential points and yet slated to pick 1.03.

My mid dyno team is 7-4, was on pace to be a 3/4 seed but lost Dobbins, Garret Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr and now Drake London. FML. After swinging a couple of minor "win now" trades. Have to pray that I can keep bailing water and that Bucky Irving, MHJ and Drake London can come back and propel me deep in the playoffs. IF Kittle and JSN stay healthy.
Redraft/ 3 Keeper team is mid (6-5) 88.8% efficiency- that one hangs in the balance. Team feels very mid. ARSB/ Hurts/ Henry are the core. Feels non-elite. Might blow it up next year.

Then my two redraft teams are also mirror images:
Home league picked out of the 8 spot and I'm getting destroyed by a bunch of kids 3-8. Well I guess some of them are in their mid 20s now.
Sleeper league with you all, I'm living a dream lifestyle. 10-1. 2nd in points scored. Crushing vs a bunch of sickos.
 
Opposite problem here. I've been much better at picking my lineup, but everybody has their best week against us. I'm 3-8 but have scored more points than my 8-3 division leader.
I am in that boat as well in a few leagues. My pts scored is in the top 3 or 4 of every league but this year my schedule luck has been terrible and in the bottom two of pts against in 2 or 3 leagues as well.

In one league I have the #2 highest week for the year and just happened to play the guy with the highest score for the year to take a loss. Give me that game any other week or play against any other team that week and I get a win. Ugh. Frustration.
 
Patrick Thorman
Jeff Ratcliffe
Joe Bond
Nathan Jahnke

Expert names I recognize with success in the '24 and '25 fantasypros rankings. I've been lazy this year only looking at overall ECR without selecting the experts. I used to check Charchian's, which I believe are now paywalled. I still check fantasy footballers, but they haven't steered me well on the coin flips this season.

Gotta try something new with results this poor. If there are other experts that you consider must-include in an expert consensus ranking, I'd love to hear them.

:kicksrock:
 
This is why I only play best ball.

What type of leagues and where do you like to play?
Mostly MFL dynasty leagues.
Main league has 25 spots that can score and then 10 additional non-scoring taxi spots (for rookies / devy).
Main league scoring lineup is QB, RB, WR, TE, 5 Flex, 1 SF... very flexy too.

Thanks.

That's interesting on the 25 active and 10 taxi. Do you run into the same problems though if you have a taxi guy score a bunch?

For the format, how does it work? The league operates like a normal league with drafts and trades and all that. It's just that the scoring each week is expanded to all the best players of the 25 active?

Is it still head to head each week?
 
Opposite problem here. I've been much better at picking my lineup, but everybody has their best week against us. I'm 3-8 but have scored more points than my 8-3 division leader.
Pretty much the same in one of my leagues. Fortunately next year we’ll also be playing against the median, but may still miss the playoffs this year because of a bunch of bad beats despite high scores.
 
For the folks on the unfortuanate end of scheduling with head to head, I totally get that.

We split the pot in our local league half gets the head to head champ and the other half goes to total points. Super easy and simple way to even it out.
 
We split the pot in our local league half gets the head to head champ and the other half goes to total points. Super easy and simple way to even it out.
I am not a fan of having it split that evenly. I mean the point of the league is to win and sometimes you just lose to a team that played better than you that week. Just like in real life football. Then sometimes you win a game when you were the second lowest scoring team and playing the only team you could beat. Over time it evens out. I think most people remember the bad beats over the lucky wins so it seems like it happens more often.

We do you bonus payouts for various things and high points is one of those things but it isn't close to half the pot.
 
We split the pot in our local league half gets the head to head champ and the other half goes to total points. Super easy and simple way to even it out.
I am not a fan of having it split that evenly. I mean the point of the league is to win and sometimes you just lose to a team that played better than you that week. Just like in real life football. Then sometimes you win a game when you were the second lowest scoring team and playing the only team you could beat. Over time it evens out. I think most people remember the bad beats over the lucky wins so it seems like it happens more often.

We do you bonus payouts for various things and high points is one of those things but it isn't close to half the pot.

I'm with @Gally on this one. You need to know who the real champion is in a given year and the payout should reflect that. I have participated in a league that gave an equal payout to the regular season winner and the playoff champion and it definitely felt like there were two winners. Without a cash distribution to say otherwise, I'd say the regular season winner had the bragging rights in that scenario. The league I commission rewards a token amount (less than an entry fee) to the regular season 1-seed and regular season points title. I'd like to give them more, but my league insists on a third place game for some reason. It does allow any dominant champion that sweeps those payouts to take a large portion of the overall pot, as it should.
 
The league I commission rewards a token amount (less than an entry fee) to the regular season 1-seed and regular season points title. I'd like to give them more, but my league insists on a third place game for some reason.
In one league we give 30% to the #1 seed and 70% to the Super Bowl Champion.
 
I do get the frustration of hard-luck H2H schedules. I'm a staunch defender of traditional H2H and count on things mostly evening out over 14 games. That doesn't mean life or fantasy football is fair.

For the better part of my league's history, we've been a 14-team league where the top 8 W-L records advance to the playoffs. Points scored is the only tiebreak. My philosophy has always been that if you finish top-4 in points scored and miss the playoffs, you've got free license to complain about some really rotten luck.

I have yet to issue that license in 20 years. One year, the 5th highest scoring team missed with a logjam of teams just behind them. More often, it might be the 6th or 7th highest scoring team that might miss. The 6th or 7th highest scoring team in a 14-team league missing the playoffs is no tragedy in my book, but I get the frustration.

My personal hard-luck H2H standing in dynasty this season is a man-made problem. 3rd of 12 teams in points scored and sitting at 5-6. The issue is that the commish thought it would be a great idea to establish not two, but three divisions of four teams. Unbalanced scheduling where you play your division twice and every other team once. My division is stacked this year, whereas the other two divisions have one good team. It has mostly evened out over the years, but definitely a bummer this year. The current divisional standings are perfectly upside down with scoring at the moment. Reminds me of the NFL's mistake of 4-team divisions which has led to too many instances of 8-8 division winners by default.
 
Patrick Thorman
Jeff Ratcliffe
Joe Bond
Nathan Jahnke

Expert names I recognize with success in the '24 and '25 fantasypros rankings. I've been lazy this year only looking at overall ECR without selecting the experts. I used to check Charchian's, which I believe are now paywalled. I still check fantasy footballers, but they haven't steered me well on the coin flips this season.

Gotta try something new with results this poor. If there are other experts that you consider must-include in an expert consensus ranking, I'd love to hear them.

:kicksrock:


Forgive me, I'm a creature of habit. I genuinely didn't realize top-15 rankings were available to the masses here. I will see if FBG can help sort out my WR picks. Terrible lineup decisions using everything but FBG rankings has to be some kind of testimonial.
 
The issue is that the commish thought it would be a great idea to establish not two, but three divisions of four teams.
I have never understood the reason for divisions. In all my leagues we play everyone once and then fill in the other weeks with positions weeks. By that I mean 1st vs 2nd, 3rd vs 4th, etc. It works really well.
 
The issue is that the commish thought it would be a great idea to establish not two, but three divisions of four teams.
I have never understood the reason for divisions. In all my leagues we play everyone once and then fill in the other weeks with positions weeks. By that I mean 1st vs 2nd, 3rd vs 4th, etc. It works really well.

One big 14-team league where you played every team once in a 13-week schedule was glorious before the NFL expanded the schedule. That could still work great if not for week 14 NFL bye weeks forcing fantasy schedules to add that week to their regular season.

In defense of my dynasty commissioner, the updated schedule does provide nice symmetry for a 12-team, 3-division league. Not a lot of fun watching him coast to a playoff bye week with six cupcakes on his schedule.
 
This is why I only play best ball.

What type of leagues and where do you like to play?
Mostly MFL dynasty leagues.
Main league has 25 spots that can score and then 10 additional non-scoring taxi spots (for rookies / devy).
Main league scoring lineup is QB, RB, WR, TE, 5 Flex, 1 SF... very flexy too.

Thanks.

That's interesting on the 25 active and 10 taxi. Do you run into the same problems though if you have a taxi guy score a bunch?

For the format, how does it work? The league operates like a normal league with drafts and trades and all that. It's just that the scoring each week is expanded to all the best players of the 25 active?

Is it still head to head each week?
Here's the league, and it's a little more complicated than that...
24 team, 2 copy league (so values are about the same as a 12-team league)
Rosters are so deep, there usually aren't taxi guys going off for big days... but it can happen.
It's a normal league, it's just the top 10 guys (who also fit into the position reqs) score out of your full roster of 25.
You get 1 VP for winning your head-to-head matchup and 1 VP for scoring in the top half of the league.

You didn't ask but the genius is the draft rules (that I can't take credit for).
Usually in devy leagues it's a depleted rookie draft because the best guys were drafted as devy.
In this league, only 1 of the 2 copies can be drafted as devy so the other copy is available when they are in the actual NFL draft.
Never a depleted draft and actually can have 2 copies available (like Ashton Jeanty going both 1.01 and 1.02 this year)
 
One big 14-team league where you played every team once in a 13-week schedule was glorious before the NFL expanded the schedule. That could still work great if not for week 14 NFL bye weeks forcing fantasy schedules to add that week to their regular season.
That's the beauty of the position week. Have that be week 14. Completely balanced schedule and gives teams the opportunity to improve their seed by playing the team right next to them in the standings.
 
We split the pot in our local league half gets the head to head champ and the other half goes to total points. Super easy and simple way to even it out.
I am not a fan of having it split that evenly. I mean the point of the league is to win and sometimes you just lose to a team that played better than you that week. Just like in real life football. Then sometimes you win a game when you were the second lowest scoring team and playing the only team you could beat. Over time it evens out. I think most people remember the bad beats over the lucky wins so it seems like it happens more often.

We do you bonus payouts for various things and high points is one of those things but it isn't close to half the pot.

Sure. Then split whatever you feel is appropriate.

I'm saying it's very easy to solve the "I scored a ton of points but had an unlucky head to head pairing" problem.
 
Patrick Thorman
Jeff Ratcliffe
Joe Bond
Nathan Jahnke

Expert names I recognize with success in the '24 and '25 fantasypros rankings. I've been lazy this year only looking at overall ECR without selecting the experts. I used to check Charchian's, which I believe are now paywalled. I still check fantasy footballers, but they haven't steered me well on the coin flips this season.

Gotta try something new with results this poor. If there are other experts that you consider must-include in an expert consensus ranking, I'd love to hear them.

:kicksrock:


Forgive me, I'm a creature of habit. I genuinely didn't realize top-15 rankings were available to the masses here. I will see if FBG can help sort out my WR picks. Terrible lineup decisions using everything but FBG rankings has to be some kind of testimonial.

LOL. I'm mostly joking. We miss our share too. I had Bryce Young on my bench last week using our rankings :(

The bottom line is this is REALLY hard to predict. It's something we obsess over though.
 
I'm saying it's very easy to solve the "I scored a ton of points but had an unlucky head to head pairing" problem.
I guess I am saying it's not a "problem" it's kind of like real games. Sometimes a team steps up against you and sometimes they don't. It's part of the game and part of the fun.

I do believe there are two distinct camps that have formed for FF. One wants to minimize as much luck as possible by using All Play, Victory Points, Best Ball, etc. The other likes the competition aspect of having one opponent each week, setting lineups, and understanding luck is going to be involved. Neither is necessarily the right answer as to each their own. It's something that makes the industry flexible.

Key is to find like minded people so everyone is on the same page.
 

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