Anyone not like Eddie Lacy? (1 Viewer)

[Phenomena]

Other guys ranked around Lacy outside of the big 3: Forte, Lynch, Murray, Foster, Bell, Ball, Dougie, Gio.

Lacy's receptions should go up; his carries should go up (thinking 300+); with defenses fearing Rodgers arm and opening bigger lanes, his ypc should go up; with a better, more productive offense, his TD's could go up (12-15 total seems realistic).

Point is, I could definitely see situations where Lacy is #1 Fantasy RB by the end of the year. I can't say that about any of the guys listed above.

Actually, i think the point is i could pencil any of those other guys in for #1 numbers and they'd finish #1.

So you are saying that you could see any one of Lynch, Murray, Foster, Bell, Ball, Martin or Gio finishing as the RB1 this year? And more so than Lacy?

Also, all you can do is pencil numbers in. 300 carries is not really an increase from last year (averaged 20 per game over 14 games last year, which would put him into 320+ territory), nor is 12+ TDs-he had 11 last year. Do you disagree that having a healthy Rodgers, Cobb, Nelson should push the defenses back a little, giving him more running room? Do you disagree that these pieces that were missing for most of last year will have a positive impact on the offense and should put Lacy in more chances to score?

I agree that Mike McCarthy has a 14 year history of throwing the ball near the goal line and has had only one running back crack more than 11 total TDs in a single season during that time, Deuce McCallister with 16 TDs in 2002. Deuce is also the only back to crack 2,000 total yards in a McCarthy offense (2003).

I think Eddie can achieve maybe 1,800 yards and maybe 15 TDs because of the reasons you state, but he is working against a lot of history on all fronts. And FTR I have him as RB#4 on my board, a lot of that also to do with the fact that I think he has a higher floor than many RBs.

There is no way of that happening. McCarthy would never take the ball out of Rodgers' hands enough for that to happen.

You hit on one of the key issues for Lacy, though. McCarthy has gone on record routinely over the last 7 years saying he never wants to wear a RB out before the playoffs. He think it's important for them to still be hitting their stride and healthy during December. Lacy will never approach 300 carries when Rodgers is healthy. Rodgers had to miss half the season and other RBs had to go down (Starks, Franklin) for Lacy to get anywhere near that amount of carries. Even then, he only hit 284 carries during the regular season. I think McCarthy believes anything over the 250 range is probably too much for him. That said, 250 carries in a healthy Packers offense will easily net 1100 rushing yards. Tack on another 300 receiving yards with 12 total TDs and he's still easily the RB5.

 

[Shutout]

Other guys ranked around Lacy outside of the big 3: Forte, Lynch, Murray, Foster, Bell, Ball, Dougie, Gio.

Lacy's receptions should go up; his carries should go up (thinking 300+); with defenses fearing Rodgers arm and opening bigger lanes, his ypc should go up; with a better, more productive offense, his TD's could go up (12-15 total seems realistic).

Point is, I could definitely see situations where Lacy is #1 Fantasy RB by the end of the year. I can't say that about any of the guys listed above.

Actually, i think the point is i could pencil any of those other guys in for #1 numbers and they'd finish #1.

So you are saying that you could see any one of Lynch, Murray, Foster, Bell, Ball, Martin or Gio finishing as the RB1 this year? And more so than Lacy?

Also, all you can do is pencil numbers in. 300 carries is not really an increase from last year (averaged 20 per game over 14 games last year, which would put him into 320+ territory), nor is 12+ TDs-he had 11 last year. Do you disagree that having a healthy Rodgers, Cobb, Nelson should push the defenses back a little, giving him more running room? Do you disagree that these pieces that were missing for most of last year will have a positive impact on the offense and should put Lacy in more chances to score?

I agree that Mike McCarthy has a 14 year history of throwing the ball near the goal line and has had only one running back crack more than 11 total TDs in a single season during that time, Deuce McCallister with 16 TDs in 2002. Deuce is also the only back to crack 2,000 total yards in a McCarthy offense (2003).

I think Eddie can achieve maybe 1,800 yards and maybe 15 TDs because of the reasons you state, but he is working against a lot of history on all fronts. And FTR I have him as RB#4 on my board, a lot of that also to do with the fact that I think he has a higher floor than many RBs.

Yes, if he stays healthy, his floor is high. He can't hardly avoid a 100/10 season if he tried.

IMO, there's a lot oversaid and thought about how McCarthy throws and hasn't run a lot in GB,etc. My opinion is the way you get to have a long coaching career in the NFL is by recognizing AND using your strengths. In Green Bay, it has been the passing, combined with a very pedestrian running game. When he DID have a great runner, he used him. Simple as that. We all know he's too smart to not restrain Rodgers. But he is smart enough to know he can lean on a good, capable runner and maybe preserve his star QB (throwing at the goal line can take a toll on a QB, especially if they bootleg to buy time).

Much like how things set up for a perfect storm for Charles and Shady last year, it looks like this for Lacy. How on Earth do you even begin to put adequate defenders in the box with Aaron Rodgers, Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, and a host of other capable players? IF (I know it might not happen) Finley returns, wow...You can't possibly defend the interior middle of that field and you're going to have a stampeding bull coming right down at you.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Seems like there must be some way to stop the raging bull considering he couldn't even hit league average ypc with rodgers last year.

Hold on -- i'm gonna make my case for bradshaw with the first pick:

Yards should go up, receptions should go up, should play 16 games, carries should be over 300, td should go up (25-30 sounds realistic)

BAM! Instant #1 pick

 

[Modog814]

Other guys ranked around Lacy outside of the big 3: Forte, Lynch, Murray, Foster, Bell, Ball, Dougie, Gio.

Lacy's receptions should go up; his carries should go up (thinking 300+); with defenses fearing Rodgers arm and opening bigger lanes, his ypc should go up; with a better, more productive offense, his TD's could go up (12-15 total seems realistic).

Point is, I could definitely see situations where Lacy is #1 Fantasy RB by the end of the year. I can't say that about any of the guys listed above.

Actually, i think the point is i could pencil any of those other guys in for #1 numbers and they'd finish #1.

So you are saying that you could see any one of Lynch, Murray, Foster, Bell, Ball, Martin or Gio finishing as the RB1 this year? And more so than Lacy?

Also, all you can do is pencil numbers in. 300 carries is not really an increase from last year (averaged 20 per game over 14 games last year, which would put him into 320+ territory), nor is 12+ TDs-he had 11 last year. Do you disagree that having a healthy Rodgers, Cobb, Nelson should push the defenses back a little, giving him more running room? Do you disagree that these pieces that were missing for most of last year will have a positive impact on the offense and should put Lacy in more chances to score?

I agree that Mike McCarthy has a 14 year history of throwing the ball near the goal line and has had only one running back crack more than 11 total TDs in a single season during that time, Deuce McCallister with 16 TDs in 2002. Deuce is also the only back to crack 2,000 total yards in a McCarthy offense (2003).

I think Eddie can achieve maybe 1,800 yards and maybe 15 TDs because of the reasons you state, but he is working against a lot of history on all fronts. And FTR I have him as RB#4 on my board, a lot of that also to do with the fact that I think he has a higher floor than many RBs.

Yes, if he stays healthy, his floor is high. He can't hardly avoid a 100/10 season if he tried.

IMO, there's a lot oversaid and thought about how McCarthy throws and hasn't run a lot in GB,etc. My opinion is the way you get to have a long coaching career in the NFL is by recognizing AND using your strengths. In Green Bay, it has been the passing, combined with a very pedestrian running game. When he DID have a great runner, he used him. Simple as that. We all know he's too smart to not restrain Rodgers. But he is smart enough to know he can lean on a good, capable runner and maybe preserve his star QB (throwing at the goal line can take a toll on a QB, especially if they bootleg to buy time).

Much like how things set up for a perfect storm for Charles and Shady last year, it looks like this for Lacy. How on Earth do you even begin to put adequate defenders in the box with Aaron Rodgers, Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, and a host of other capable players? IF (I know it might not happen) Finley returns, wow...You can't possibly defend the interior middle of that field and you're going to have a stampeding bull coming right down at you.

Sorry but I don't see this at all. Charles and McCoy both played in offenses that were run-centric and they were the offensive focal points. Lacy is neither in a run first offense nor the focal point of the offense.

 

[unckeyherb]

Seems like there must be some way to stop the raging bull considering he couldn't even hit league average ypc with rodgers last year.

Hold on -- i'm gonna make my case for bradshaw with the first pick:

Yards should go up, receptions should go up, should play 16 games, carries should be over 300, td should go up (25-30 sounds realistic)

BAM! Instant #1 pick

no need to be a d-bag, cool-guy. I'll ask my question again, since you've as of yet ignored it:

So you are saying that you could see any one of Lynch, Murray, Foster, Bell, Ball, Martin or Gio finishing as the RB1 this year? And more so than Lacy?

I've made my case for his carries to go up, his ypc to go up and his TD's to go up. Again, same number of carries per game, slight uptick from last year for the ypc and 1+ TD than last year. My points seem valid, but maybe you can shed some light on how having a healthy Aaron Rodgers throwing to a healthy Randall Cobb and a healthy Jordy Nelson are going to make his numbers go down.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Seems like there must be some way to stop the raging bull considering he couldn't even hit league average ypc with rodgers last year.

Hold on -- i'm gonna make my case for bradshaw with the first pick:

Yards should go up, receptions should go up, should play 16 games, carries should be over 300, td should go up (25-30 sounds realistic)

BAM! Instant #1 pick

no need to be a d-bag, cool-guy. I'll ask my question again, since you've as of yet ignored it:.

Loooooool

What happened to the shark pool?

 

[grateful zed]

Seems like there must be some way to stop the raging bull considering he couldn't even hit league average ypc with rodgers last year.

Hold on -- i'm gonna make my case for bradshaw with the first pick:

Yards should go up, receptions should go up, should play 16 games, carries should be over 300, td should go up (25-30 sounds realistic)

BAM! Instant #1 pick

no need to be a d-bag, cool-guy. I'll ask my question again, since you've as of yet ignored it:.

Loooooool

What happened to the shark pool?

no need to be a d-bag, cool-guy.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

Average yards after contact would be the number to look at there.

 

[unckeyherb]

Seems like there must be some way to stop the raging bull considering he couldn't even hit league average ypc with rodgers last year.

Hold on -- i'm gonna make my case for bradshaw with the first pick:

Yards should go up, receptions should go up, should play 16 games, carries should be over 300, td should go up (25-30 sounds realistic)

BAM! Instant #1 pick

no need to be a d-bag, cool-guy. I'll ask my question again, since you've as of yet ignored it:.

LooooooolWhat happened to the shark pool?

That's pretty much what I was hoping your response would be.

 

[need2know]

did the guys knocking lacy in here not watch the total horror show that was GB QB situation last season? what lacy did last year was amazing

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

did the guys knocking lacy in here not watch the total horror show that was GB QB situation last season? what lacy did last year was amazing

you know rodgers played last year, right?

 

[need2know]

did the guys knocking lacy in here not watch the total horror show that was GB QB situation last season? what lacy did last year was amazing

you know rodgers played last year, right?

yes he played 9 out of 16 games, though one of those games he got knocked out in the first qtr. so basically 8 out of 16. half the games. whats your point?

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

did the guys knocking lacy in here not watch the total horror show that was GB QB situation last season? what lacy did last year was amazing

you know rodgers played last year, right?

yes he played 9 out of 16 games, though one of those games he got knocked out in the first qtr. so basically 8 out of 16. half the games. whats your point?

my point is the raging bull put up 3.9 ypc, or whatever I posted earlier, with rodgers creating all these crazy running lanes, and scored 3 td in 6 games on this crazy rodgers offense ---- i won't even count the first 2 weeks to be fair to the guy.

I don't really care who the qb was in the other games.

what's your point?

 

[hines]

did the guys knocking lacy in here not watch the total horror show that was GB QB situation last season? what lacy did last year was amazing

you know rodgers played last year, right?

yes he played 9 out of 16 games, though one of those games he got knocked out in the first qtr. so basically 8 out of 16. half the games. whats your point?

my point is the raging bull put up 3.9 ypc, or whatever I posted earlier, with rodgers creating all these crazy running lanes, and scored 3 td in 6 games on this crazy rodgers offense ---- i won't even count the first 2 weeks to be fair to the guy.

I don't really care who the qb was in the other games.

what's your point?

are you assuming his season YPC will now drop because Rodgers is replacing Flynn, Tolzien and Wallace? that is maybe the worst logic I have seen on these boards

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

did the guys knocking lacy in here not watch the total horror show that was GB QB situation last season? what lacy did last year was amazing

you know rodgers played last year, right?

yes he played 9 out of 16 games, though one of those games he got knocked out in the first qtr. so basically 8 out of 16. half the games. whats your point?

my point is the raging bull put up 3.9 ypc, or whatever I posted earlier, with rodgers creating all these crazy running lanes, and scored 3 td in 6 games on this crazy rodgers offense ---- i won't even count the first 2 weeks to be fair to the guy.

I don't really care who the qb was in the other games.

what's your point?

are you assuming his season YPC will now drop because Rodgers is replacing Flynn, Tolzien and Wallace? that is maybe the worst logic I have seen on these boards

Are you assuming his ppg numbers with rodgers will make a significant jump over last year just because you want them to?

Seems so far the chief argument you guys are pushing is what a great rb he is if we raise all his stats

 

[unckeyherb]

did the guys knocking lacy in here not watch the total horror show that was GB QB situation last season? what lacy did last year was amazing

you know rodgers played last year, right?

yes he played 9 out of 16 games, though one of those games he got knocked out in the first qtr. so basically 8 out of 16. half the games. whats your point?

my point is the raging bull put up 3.9 ypc, or whatever I posted earlier, with rodgers creating all these crazy running lanes, and scored 3 td in 6 games on this crazy rodgers offense ---- i won't even count the first 2 weeks to be fair to the guy.

I don't really care who the qb was in the other games.

what's your point?

In my .5PPR league with Rodgers he averaged 16 ppg. With the other crap they rolled out he averaged 16.2 ppg.

And the 3.9 ypc should be quantified because you are leaving some key points out.

You say you aren't including the first 2 weeks "to be fair to the guy" but actually you ARE including week 1 where he had a low 2.93 ypc. You are only NOT including week 2 where he got a concussion on his first run of the game. That game he has a 10 ypc because the only run he had was a 10 yard burst where he got knocked out due to a dirty helmet to helmet hit. This happened to also be the game that lowly James Starks had the best game of his NFL career coming in for Lacy, netting 168 total yards and 2 TD's w/ a 6.6 ypc. You can choose to believe that Lacy wouldn't have done at least close to that if you want. You also are choosing to NOT include the week 9 game where Rodgers eventually got knocked out, but Lacy had a 6.82 ypc.

If you ACTUALLY don't include the first 2 weeks he had a 4.12 ypc. If you include every game in which they both played, he had a 5.18 ypc. See its easy to play with the numbers to try and sound like you are right. The point is Lacy with or without Rodgers averaged about 5 ppg less than Charles, 3 ppg less than Shady and 2 ppg less than Forte. This was with Finley and Cobb out for more than half the season and Nelson playing injured every week. You think that another year under his belt, a fully healthy offense and the coaches saying they are going to ride Lacy like a workhorse mean he will at best not improve, at worst regress.

Agree to disagree I guess.

 

[buddhacwru]

I think the crux of the issue here is the YPC and how do we feel about Lacy's athleticism and the value of picking him in the top 5.

Frankly if CJ Spiller, Christine Michael,or even Jonathan Franklin were in Lacy's position as the clear lead back for this same team I'd probably take all of them ahead of Lacy. But Lacy has a great opportunity for himself here. Where we are drafting him though is likely at his ceiling. But his floor is very high due to opportunity.

 

[sho nuff]

YPC is great and all...some coaches care about that.

McCarthy does not seem to be one of them. he has actually stated in the past yards per carry really does not matter to him.

Lacy is going to be a very solid FF player. Could he be top 5? I have no reason to believe that he couldn't. Top 10 easily, with a very strong shot at top 5 seems to be the right place to draft the guy.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I think the crux of the issue here is the YPC and how do we feel about Lacy's athleticism and the value of picking him in the top 5.

Frankly if CJ Spiller, Christine Michael,or even Jonathan Franklin were in Lacy's position as the clear lead back for this same team I'd probably take all of them ahead of Lacy. But Lacy has a great opportunity for himself here. Where we are drafting him though is likely at his ceiling. But his floor is very high due to opportunity.

So the guy that was drafted two rounds after him that he beat out for the starting job would do a better job than he did?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

YPC is great and all...some coaches care about that.

It has it's uses, however...

We get so hung up on such minimal differences. Lacy finished with a 4.1 ypc and people bring that up as a negative. If he finished with 4.4 ypc no one would bat an eye.

275 carries @ 4.1 ypc = 1,127

275 carries @ 4.4 ypc = 1,210

That's really not any big deal from a production standpoint.

Going further if things break a little differently on a handful of carries, the difference is easily made up. Then we have to factor in that Lacy saw a good amount of goal-line carries where the most he could gain was 1 or 2 yards and saw other short yardage carries where the team was happy with one or two yards.

Sometimes you have to step back a bit and really think about the level of minutia that we are really discussing.

 

[spitfire10]

The packers have been trying to win with balance since the 2011 air assault season when they figured out it left their defence on the field too long. I can't guarantee that lacy's carries will surpass 300 because if he gets knicked up at all he will be spelled more often. But he will be in for almost every critical situation in the game and most importantly the red zone. The time of rodgers scrambling around in the red zone making td throws on the run is past, they won't be exposing him to those hits which will result in even more red zone looks for lacy.

 

[unckeyherb]

The packers have been trying to win with balance since the 2011 air assault season when they figured out it left their defence on the field too long. I can't guarantee that lacy's carries will surpass 300 because if he gets knicked up at all he will be spelled more often. But he will be in for almost every critical situation in the game and most importantly the red zone. The time of rodgers scrambling around in the red zone making td throws on the run is past, they won't be exposing him to those hits which will result in even more red zone looks for lacy.

agreed

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

did the guys knocking lacy in here not watch the total horror show that was GB QB situation last season? what lacy did last year was amazing

you know rodgers played last year, right?

yes he played 9 out of 16 games, though one of those games he got knocked out in the first qtr. so basically 8 out of 16. half the games. whats your point?

my point is the raging bull put up 3.9 ypc, or whatever I posted earlier, with rodgers creating all these crazy running lanes, and scored 3 td in 6 games on this crazy rodgers offense ---- i won't even count the first 2 weeks to be fair to the guy.

I don't really care who the qb was in the other games.

what's your point?

In my .5PPR league with Rodgers he averaged 16 ppg. With the other crap they rolled out he averaged 16.2 ppg.

And the 3.9 ypc should be quantified because you are leaving some key points out.

You say you aren't including the first 2 weeks "to be fair to the guy" but actually you ARE including week 1 where he had a low 2.93 ypc. You are only NOT including week 2 where he got a concussion on his first run of the game. That game he has a 10 ypc because the only run he had was a 10 yard burst where he got knocked out due to a dirty helmet to helmet hit. This happened to also be the game that lowly James Starks had the best game of his NFL career coming in for Lacy, netting 168 total yards and 2 TD's w/ a 6.6 ypc. You can choose to believe that Lacy wouldn't have done at least close to that if you want. You also are choosing to NOT include the week 9 game where Rodgers eventually got knocked out, but Lacy had a 6.82 ypc.

If you ACTUALLY don't include the first 2 weeks he had a 4.12 ypc.

so, your point is that rodgers ACTUALLY made no difference at all in lacy's production last year, or he will ACTUALLY put up crazy numbers this year based on the crazy numbers he would've put up in that game he didn't play?

although, I'll admit, after the rest of that post I can't take those ppg figures very seriously.

I'm not trying to stomp a young man's vivid imagination, but I ACTUALLY didn't include the first 2 weeks, as (what I thought was) pretty clearly spelled out in the list of weeks I ACTUALLY posted --- feel free, if you wish to add in those 2 weeks, as it ACTUALLY makes no difference at all.

much like rodgers presence on lacy's production, apparently.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I think the crux of the issue here is the YPC and how do we feel about Lacy's athleticism and the value of picking him in the top 5.

Frankly if CJ Spiller, Christine Michael,or even Jonathan Franklin were in Lacy's position as the clear lead back for this same team I'd probably take all of them ahead of Lacy. But Lacy has a great opportunity for himself here. Where we are drafting him though is likely at his ceiling. But his floor is very high due to opportunity.

So the guy that was drafted two rounds after him that he beat out for the starting job would do a better job than he did?

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

YPC is great and all...some coaches care about that.

It has it's uses, however...

We get so hung up on such minimal differences. Lacy finished with a 4.1 ypc and people bring that up as a negative. If he finished with 4.4 ypc no one would bat an eye.

275 carries @ 4.1 ypc = 1,127

275 carries @ 4.4 ypc = 1,210

That's really not any big deal from a production standpoint.

Going further if things break a little differently on a handful of carries, the difference is easily made up. Then we have to factor in that Lacy saw a good amount of goal-line carries where the most he could gain was 1 or 2 yards and saw other short yardage carries where the team was happy with one or two yards.

Sometimes you have to step back a bit and really think about the level of minutia that we are really discussing.

I would have to assume most other 'featured' rb in the league get some short yardage and goal line carries, as well.

probably peterson does, ball, shady, charles, forte, etc

I don't know why that would handicap lacy, in particular, in comparison to those other guys.

also, you'd have a variety of situations in both games with rodgers and without, so short yardage carries would really have no bearing on any of that.

that said, people can certainly get hung up on minutiae.

personally, I wouldn't say his ypc is a knock on him, but if you have to sub in an imaginary figure it's not actually a plus, either.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

YPC is great and all...some coaches care about that.

It has it's uses, however...

We get so hung up on such minimal differences. Lacy finished with a 4.1 ypc and people bring that up as a negative. If he finished with 4.4 ypc no one would bat an eye.

275 carries @ 4.1 ypc = 1,127

275 carries @ 4.4 ypc = 1,210

That's really not any big deal from a production standpoint.

Going further if things break a little differently on a handful of carries, the difference is easily made up. Then we have to factor in that Lacy saw a good amount of goal-line carries where the most he could gain was 1 or 2 yards and saw other short yardage carries where the team was happy with one or two yards.

Sometimes you have to step back a bit and really think about the level of minutia that we are really discussing.

I would have to assume most other 'featured' rb in the league get some short yardage and goal line carries, as well.

probably peterson does, ball, shady, charles, forte, etc

I don't know why that would handicap lacy, in particular, in comparison to those other guys.

also, you'd have a variety of situations in both games with rodgers and without, so short yardage carries would really have no bearing on any of that.

that said, people can certainly get hung up on minutiae.

personally, I wouldn't say his ypc is a knock on him, but if you have to sub in an imaginary figure it's not actually a plus, either.

You realize that Tomlinson arguably one of the best RB's to play the game had a rookie season of 3.9 ypc on 339 attempts to have 1236 yards and 10 td's in 16 games. In year 2 he had a ypc of 4.5 on 372 attempts for 1683 yards and 14 td's in 16 games.

In year one Lacy had a ypc of 4.1 for 1178 yards on 284 attempts and 11 td's in 14 games.

What do you project Lacy getting in year 2?

 

[spitfire10]

You have to see a season with rodgers boosting ypc somewhat, but the lack of breakaway speed probably holds it under 5

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

YPC is great and all...some coaches care about that.

It has it's uses, however...

We get so hung up on such minimal differences. Lacy finished with a 4.1 ypc and people bring that up as a negative. If he finished with 4.4 ypc no one would bat an eye.

275 carries @ 4.1 ypc = 1,127

275 carries @ 4.4 ypc = 1,210

That's really not any big deal from a production standpoint.

Going further if things break a little differently on a handful of carries, the difference is easily made up. Then we have to factor in that Lacy saw a good amount of goal-line carries where the most he could gain was 1 or 2 yards and saw other short yardage carries where the team was happy with one or two yards.

Sometimes you have to step back a bit and really think about the level of minutia that we are really discussing.

I would have to assume most other 'featured' rb in the league get some short yardage and goal line carries, as well.

probably peterson does, ball, shady, charles, forte, etc

I don't know why that would handicap lacy, in particular, in comparison to those other guys.

also, you'd have a variety of situations in both games with rodgers and without, so short yardage carries would really have no bearing on any of that.

that said, people can certainly get hung up on minutiae.

personally, I wouldn't say his ypc is a knock on him, but if you have to sub in an imaginary figure it's not actually a plus, either.

You realize that Tomlinson arguably one of the best RB's to play the game had a rookie season of 3.9 ypc on 339 attempts to have 1236 yards and 10 td's in 16 games. In year 2 he had a ypc of 4.5 on 372 attempts for 1683 yards and 14 td's in 16 games.

In year one Lacy had a ypc of 4.1 for 1178 yards on 284 attempts and 11 td's in 14 games.

What do you project Lacy getting in year 2?

well, if tomlinson could do it I think we can safely assume everyone can do it.

I'll admit you're confusing me here --- are you claiming lacy is one of the best rb to play the game, as you put it?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

YPC is great and all...some coaches care about that.

It has it's uses, however...

We get so hung up on such minimal differences. Lacy finished with a 4.1 ypc and people bring that up as a negative. If he finished with 4.4 ypc no one would bat an eye.

275 carries @ 4.1 ypc = 1,127

275 carries @ 4.4 ypc = 1,210

That's really not any big deal from a production standpoint.

Going further if things break a little differently on a handful of carries, the difference is easily made up. Then we have to factor in that Lacy saw a good amount of goal-line carries where the most he could gain was 1 or 2 yards and saw other short yardage carries where the team was happy with one or two yards.

Sometimes you have to step back a bit and really think about the level of minutia that we are really discussing.

I would have to assume most other 'featured' rb in the league get some short yardage and goal line carries, as well.

probably peterson does, ball, shady, charles, forte, etc

I don't know why that would handicap lacy, in particular, in comparison to those other guys.

That's probably true for many backs, yes. It was more a general point that while ypc isn't meaningless, it doesn't always tell the full story.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

You have to see a season with rodgers boosting ypc somewhat, but the lack of breakaway speed probably holds it under 5

this is basically my point --- why do we have to see it?

in our imagination, you mean?

do you think there's actually a chance he gets held to under 5 ypc on the year?

that's fine ---- every expectation for all these guys is basically our imagination until it happens, but let's not pretend it's any more than that.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

You have to see a season with rodgers boosting ypc somewhat, but the lack of breakaway speed probably holds it under 5

Most RBs will be held to under 5 ypc.

 

[Shutout]

The only thing that truly matters is how many fantasy points are scored and one of two things WILL happen this year: Either Lacy will score a TON of them or Aaron Rodgers is going to have a Peyton Manning 2004/2013 type year because there is NO way (and let me throw bias out the door, I am not a Packers fan) that you can have both those guys on the field with Nelson, Cobb, etc, and hold this team down. This team is simply in the position to score A LOT, which is kinda what we look for in the fantasy world.

8 men in a box against Rodgers means Rodgers has single coverage on AT LEAST two of his favorite receivers and that timing on that back-shoulder throw might be the prettiest thing they have going in football right now.

Anything less than 8 in the box means Lacy will romp. We have already seen Lacy was more than capable/very good when it was basically just him. That Packers offense was missing parts all over the place. But with Cobb back, that changes everything because he mandates that you have to play wider in that first contact zone and he will pull them off and out into space. This is going to open up holes between the tackles and guards that look like the truck lanes Houston was opening up for Arian Foster 3-4 years ago because there is no way a team can allow Cobb to pick the direction he wants to go, run away from the single-coverage trailing guy and allow Rodgers to play pitch and catch with him all day. If that happens, the Packers will not punt all year because you CANNOT stop that.

 

[unckeyherb]

did the guys knocking lacy in here not watch the total horror show that was GB QB situation last season? what lacy did last year was amazing

you know rodgers played last year, right?

yes he played 9 out of 16 games, though one of those games he got knocked out in the first qtr. so basically 8 out of 16. half the games. whats your point?

my point is the raging bull put up 3.9 ypc, or whatever I posted earlier, with rodgers creating all these crazy running lanes, and scored 3 td in 6 games on this crazy rodgers offense ---- i won't even count the first 2 weeks to be fair to the guy.

I don't really care who the qb was in the other games.

what's your point?

In my .5PPR league with Rodgers he averaged 16 ppg. With the other crap they rolled out he averaged 16.2 ppg.

And the 3.9 ypc should be quantified because you are leaving some key points out.

You say you aren't including the first 2 weeks "to be fair to the guy" but actually you ARE including week 1 where he had a low 2.93 ypc. You are only NOT including week 2 where he got a concussion on his first run of the game. That game he has a 10 ypc because the only run he had was a 10 yard burst where he got knocked out due to a dirty helmet to helmet hit. This happened to also be the game that lowly James Starks had the best game of his NFL career coming in for Lacy, netting 168 total yards and 2 TD's w/ a 6.6 ypc. You can choose to believe that Lacy wouldn't have done at least close to that if you want. You also are choosing to NOT include the week 9 game where Rodgers eventually got knocked out, but Lacy had a 6.82 ypc.

If you ACTUALLY don't include the first 2 weeks he had a 4.12 ypc.

so, your point is that rodgers ACTUALLY made no difference at all in lacy's production last year, or he will ACTUALLY put up crazy numbers this year based on the crazy numbers he would've put up in that game he didn't play?

although, I'll admit, after the rest of that post I can't take those ppg figures very seriously.

I'm not trying to stomp a young man's vivid imagination, but I ACTUALLY didn't include the first 2 weeks, as (what I thought was) pretty clearly spelled out in the list of weeks I ACTUALLY posted --- feel free, if you wish to add in those 2 weeks, as it ACTUALLY makes no difference at all.

much like rodgers presence on lacy's production, apparently.

Okay, let me make it clearer for you since you just want to be a timmy-tough-nuts..

Week 1: 2.93

Week 2: 10

Week 3: did not play

Week 4: bye

Week 5: 4.3

Week 6: 5.22

Week 7: 3.73

Week 8: 3.24

Week 9: 6.82

Let me see the math you used to get to 3.9 ypc and didn't use week 1. I'll save you the time-you DID include it. Not sure why you keep denying that other than to be intentionally obtuse. I get not including week 2 as it was 1 carry and would skew his ypc to 5.2. But if you are going to keep claiming his 3.9 ypc with Rodgers at least include the week 9 number in your calculations also, even though it doesn't support your theory. That gives him 4.4 ypc.

And my point was that Lacy averaged about 5 ppg less than JCharles last year. For the reasons I've stated in about 3 or 4 posts, which you keep ignoring, I think that an additional year of experience plus the whole offense being healthy plus the offensive coordinator coming out and saying they are going to use Lacy more than last year will mean that he will improve on his numbers from last year. I'm not sure what you don't get. You choose to believe that all the things I just listed are not plausible and instead keep saying 3.9. Okay, I get it. 3.9. you win.

 

[unckeyherb]

personally, I wouldn't say his ypc is a knock on him, but if you have to sub in an imaginary figure it's not actually a plus, either.

Seriously? All you keep spouting against him is his 3.9 ypc with Rodgers, which is an imaginary figure that you've subbed in.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

The only thing that truly matters is how many fantasy points are scored and one of two things WILL happen this year: Either Lacy will score a TON of them or Aaron Rodgers is going to have a Peyton Manning 2004/2013 type year because there is NO way (and let me throw bias out the door, I am not a Packers fan) that you can have both those guys on the field with Nelson, Cobb, etc, and hold this team down. This team is simply in the position to score A LOT, which is kinda what we look for in the fantasy world.

8 men in a box against Rodgers means Rodgers has single coverage on AT LEAST two of his favorite receivers and that timing on that back-shoulder throw might be the prettiest thing they have going in football right now.

Anything less than 8 in the box means Lacy will romp. We have already seen Lacy was more than capable/very good when it was basically just him. That Packers offense was missing parts all over the place. But with Cobb back, that changes everything because he mandates that you have to play wider in that first contact zone and he will pull them off and out into space. This is going to open up holes between the tackles and guards that look like the truck lanes Houston was opening up for Arian Foster 3-4 years ago because there is no way a team can allow Cobb to pick the direction he wants to go, run away from the single-coverage trailing guy and allow Rodgers to play pitch and catch with him all day. If that happens, the Packers will not punt all year because you CANNOT stop that.

I like this post because it turns to a bit of a different approach from just some guy banging on the window screaming RAWDGERS!!! over and over --- the secret ingredient is cobb!

let me keep an open mind on this and take a look at the games they all played together --- think that would be weeks 1, 5, 6, 17, and the wildcard game.

if you want to spin your numbers by adding in a game where one guy plays 2 snaps, or whatever, you're always free to do that on your own.

as a big fan of the '07 pats, this is gonna be mind blowing.......

overall record in the 5 games -- 3-2

total 11 td -- avg ~2 td/game

lacy 2 td -- avg .4/game

edit: forgot the ypc ---- 4 ypc

think we all know who's gonna be doing the next citizens eco campaign.

wait.........hold on............

DAVANTE ADAMS!!!!!

UNSTOPPABLE!!!!

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Kool-aid Larry....

One of your arguments on Lacy was you did not like was his YPC. I then gave you an example of Tomlinson one of the greatest rb's to play the game having a ypc of 3.9 in his rookie year and improved dramatically in year 2. You missed the point whereas I was giving one example of how ypc's are really just one stat and even one of the greatest ever improved from year 1 to year 2.

Lacy is not Tomlinson and that is ok seeing as how Tomlinson is an all time great. However, Lacy does not need to be Tomlinson to be great in fatnasy. He is a 3 down back that is definitely better than your average NFL rb. Lacy is also in a great situation with an offence that will allow for a lot of td scoring opportunities for a rb. Even if Lacy's ypc does not improve he will still be a top rb based on volume, td's, and an increase in receptions. There really is not a ton of negatives to for-see in Lacy this upcoming year.

Where do you have Lacy ranked and what are your projections for him?

 

[Shutout]

The only thing that truly matters is how many fantasy points are scored and one of two things WILL happen this year: Either Lacy will score a TON of them or Aaron Rodgers is going to have a Peyton Manning 2004/2013 type year because there is NO way (and let me throw bias out the door, I am not a Packers fan) that you can have both those guys on the field with Nelson, Cobb, etc, and hold this team down. This team is simply in the position to score A LOT, which is kinda what we look for in the fantasy world. 8 men in a box against Rodgers means Rodgers has single coverage on AT LEAST two of his favorite receivers and that timing on that back-shoulder throw might be the prettiest thing they have going in football right now.

Anything less than 8 in the box means Lacy will romp. We have already seen Lacy was more than capable/very good when it was basically just him. That Packers offense was missing parts all over the place. But with Cobb back, that changes everything because he mandates that you have to play wider in that first contact zone and he will pull them off and out into space. This is going to open up holes between the tackles and guards that look like the truck lanes Houston was opening up for Arian Foster 3-4 years ago because there is no way a team can allow Cobb to pick the direction he wants to go, run away from the single-coverage trailing guy and allow Rodgers to play pitch and catch with him all day. If that happens, the Packers will not punt all year because you CANNOT stop that.

I like this post because it turns to a bit of a different approach from just some guy banging on the window screaming RAWDGERS!!! over and over --- the secret ingredient is cobb!

let me keep an open mind on this and take a look at the games they all played together --- think that would be weeks 1, 5, 6, 17, and the wildcard game.

if you want to spin your numbers by adding in a game where one guy plays 2 snaps, or whatever, you're always free to do that on your own.

as a big fan of the '07 pats, this is gonna be mind blowing.......

overall record in the 5 games -- 3-2

total 11 td -- avg ~2 td/game

lacy 2 td -- avg .4/game

edit: forgot the ypc ---- 4 ypc

think we all know who's gonna be doing the next citizens eco campaign.

wait.........hold on............

DAVANTE ADAMS!!!!!

UNSTOPPABLE!!!!

You seem to be one of these guys that likes to put everything in a nice little box so you can hit your accept or reject button.

Life isn't like that and football certainly isn't. You can't ignore chemistry in football and the packers were a rotating doorway last year. Let's see what happens when these guys all get on the field together this year. People who want to ignore what is on the table for a healthy packers team are free to do so. Sometimes you have to look beyond a number on a page to get the complete picture.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Kool-aid Larry....

One of your arguments on Lacy was you did not like was his YPC. I then gave you an example of Tomlinson one of the greatest rb's to play the game having a ypc of 3.9 in his rookie year and improved dramatically in year 2. You missed the point whereas I was giving one example of how ypc's are really just one stat and even one of the greatest ever improved from year 1 to year 2.

Lacy is not Tomlinson and that is ok seeing as how Tomlinson is an all time great. However, Lacy does not need to be Tomlinson to be great in fatnasy. He is a 3 down back that is definitely better than your average NFL rb. Lacy is also in a great situation with an offence that will allow for a lot of td scoring opportunities for a rb. Even if Lacy's ypc does not improve he will still be a top rb based on volume, td's, and an increase in receptions. There really is not a ton of negatives to for-see in Lacy this upcoming year.

Where do you have Lacy ranked and what are your projections for him?

I think you might've misconstrued some of my posting as overly negative --- I don't think anywhere in here did I say he's junk based off his pedestrian rookie ypc, rather I have simply pointed out his factual recorded performance in a rodgers offense in response to all the hyberbole regarding truck lanes, record setting offense, etc.

we don't have to imagine him in a rodgers led offense, as he actually already played nearly half a season with rodgers, producing a pedestrian 3.9 ypc and a td rate of about 1 every other game.

for a guy like lacy, being just good just isn't good enough --- people in here are talking about him as anywhere from the top rb to maybe taking him with the 4th or 5th pick, and finishing as simply the 10th rb doesn't cut it, which is probably where he wound up in ppr last year.

could he put up a tomlinsonesque sophomore season?

I don't have a crystal ball, but he'd have to improve quite a bit, and so far I haven't seen much reason in here other than 'anything can happen' or 'tomlinson did it'

I don't do hard projections but if you really want a more detailed opinion I could probably ballpark players I'd take over him later tonight, as I'm not really that crazy about him where he's getting picked.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

The only thing that truly matters is how many fantasy points are scored and one of two things WILL happen this year: Either Lacy will score a TON of them or Aaron Rodgers is going to have a Peyton Manning 2004/2013 type year because there is NO way (and let me throw bias out the door, I am not a Packers fan) that you can have both those guys on the field with Nelson, Cobb, etc, and hold this team down. This team is simply in the position to score A LOT, which is kinda what we look for in the fantasy world. 8 men in a box against Rodgers means Rodgers has single coverage on AT LEAST two of his favorite receivers and that timing on that back-shoulder throw might be the prettiest thing they have going in football right now.

Anything less than 8 in the box means Lacy will romp. We have already seen Lacy was more than capable/very good when it was basically just him. That Packers offense was missing parts all over the place. But with Cobb back, that changes everything because he mandates that you have to play wider in that first contact zone and he will pull them off and out into space. This is going to open up holes between the tackles and guards that look like the truck lanes Houston was opening up for Arian Foster 3-4 years ago because there is no way a team can allow Cobb to pick the direction he wants to go, run away from the single-coverage trailing guy and allow Rodgers to play pitch and catch with him all day. If that happens, the Packers will not punt all year because you CANNOT stop that.

I like this post because it turns to a bit of a different approach from just some guy banging on the window screaming RAWDGERS!!! over and over --- the secret ingredient is cobb!

let me keep an open mind on this and take a look at the games they all played together --- think that would be weeks 1, 5, 6, 17, and the wildcard game.

if you want to spin your numbers by adding in a game where one guy plays 2 snaps, or whatever, you're always free to do that on your own.

as a big fan of the '07 pats, this is gonna be mind blowing.......

overall record in the 5 games -- 3-2

total 11 td -- avg ~2 td/game

lacy 2 td -- avg .4/game

edit: forgot the ypc ---- 4 ypc

think we all know who's gonna be doing the next citizens eco campaign.

wait.........hold on............

DAVANTE ADAMS!!!!!

UNSTOPPABLE!!!!

You seem to be one of these guys that likes to put everything in a nice little box so you can hit your accept or reject button.

Life isn't like that and football certainly isn't. You can't ignore chemistry in football and the packers were a rotating doorway last year. Let's see what happens when these guys all get on the field together this year. People who want to ignore what is on the table for a healthy packers team are free to do so. Sometimes you have to look beyond a number on a page to get the complete picture.

ok, that's certainly a fair belief, and whether or not I can't ignore it, you most certainly can't quantify it, so just be aware that there are 60 pages of posts just like these in the trent richardson thread --- alright, maybe 30 pages with another 30 pages of responses to posts just like these.

 

[unckeyherb]

Kool-aid Larry....

One of your arguments on Lacy was you did not like was his YPC. I then gave you an example of Tomlinson one of the greatest rb's to play the game having a ypc of 3.9 in his rookie year and improved dramatically in year 2. You missed the point whereas I was giving one example of how ypc's are really just one stat and even one of the greatest ever improved from year 1 to year 2.

Lacy is not Tomlinson and that is ok seeing as how Tomlinson is an all time great. However, Lacy does not need to be Tomlinson to be great in fatnasy. He is a 3 down back that is definitely better than your average NFL rb. Lacy is also in a great situation with an offence that will allow for a lot of td scoring opportunities for a rb. Even if Lacy's ypc does not improve he will still be a top rb based on volume, td's, and an increase in receptions. There really is not a ton of negatives to for-see in Lacy this upcoming year.

Where do you have Lacy ranked and what are your projections for him?

I think you might've misconstrued some of my posting as overly negative --- I don't think anywhere in here did I say he's junk based off his pedestrian rookie ypc, rather I have simply pointed out his factual recorded performance in a rodgers offense in response to all the hyberbole regarding truck lanes, record setting offense, etc.

we don't have to imagine him in a rodgers led offense, as he actually already played nearly half a season with rodgers, producing a pedestrian 3.9 ypc and a td rate of about 1 every other game.

for a guy like lacy, being just good just isn't good enough --- people in here are talking about him as anywhere from the top rb to maybe taking him with the 4th or 5th pick, and finishing as simply the 10th rb doesn't cut it, which is probably where he wound up in ppr last year.

could he put up a tomlinsonesque sophomore season?

I don't have a crystal ball, but he'd have to improve quite a bit, and so far I haven't seen much reason in here other than 'anything can happen' or 'tomlinson did it'

I don't do hard projections but if you really want a more detailed opinion I could probably ballpark players I'd take over him later tonight, as I'm not really that crazy about him where he's getting picked.

He finished tied for RB7 last year with AP in my ppr league after missing 2 games. He would not have to improve "quite a bit" to break into top 5. Same carry rate and same ypc would put him right there. The expectation I personally have is that he will be used more than he was before. That's because his coaches have said that are going to use him more. A slight uptick in receptions should be expected as an offshoot of him being on the field more. He scored 11 times last year. Could that number go down? Of course. I think it's also possible that the number will go up. If it does than he's right in the conversation for top 3 or better. I still haven't seen you respond to any of those points. Do you not believe that his usage will go up? Do you expect a regression from last years production? Who are the 9 other guys you expect to finish above him?

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Kool-aid Larry....

Where do you have Lacy ranked and what are your projections for him?

ok, I doubt anybody is checking this thread for kool-aid larry's draft breakdown, but I'll work off ffcalc for some thumbnail opinion.

first of all, I mostly look in these threads for opinion from others, but I did have a bit of an opinion of my own going in this time, as I had spent a fair amount of effort looking at green bay a couple years ago for some similar thread about starks, grant, or wtfever it was --- the conclusion I came up with is green bay is constantly throwing in the endzone, and even when they don't you get vultured by rodgers and kuhn, so the gb rb didn't really appeal to me, and I have yet to see much, if anything, contrary to that.

not only wasn't lacy's production boosted by rodgers, as people like to insist based on their imaginations, it might have actually been hurt by all these great surrounding players on this historic offense crowding out his td opps.

I'd prefer to look at it drive by drive, but I'm not doing that again.

anyway, here are the (ppr) picks off the top of my head, as my draft is a couple weeks away and I'm still in process:

one thing I notice in this thread is a lot of true believers seem to hang their hats on volume, and I don't generally try to predict injuries, so ppg is more what i tend to look at.

LeSean McCoy

Jamaal Charles

Matt Forte

Adrian Peterson

nobody's a lock for anything, but I really don't see any reason lacy pushes past those ^^ guys.

here's more of the list in ffcalc order

Calvin Johnson

Demaryius Thomas

Jimmy Graham

Dez Bryant

DeMarco Murray

Brandon Marshall

Peyton Manning

Julio Jones

Montee Ball

Jordy Nelson

Arian Foster

Rob Gronkowski

those ^^ are probably all guys I would prefer to lacy, some of which I obviously don't need to take at 1.05, or whatever, but I just put them in there, anyway.

Eddie Lacy

A.J. Green

Marshawn Lynch

LeVeon Bell

Drew Brees

Aaron Rodgers

Antonio Brown

these guys ^^ are players of comparable value that I probably won't end up with, and probably don't have to make the decision on at 1.05

I don't think lacy is elite, and I think there are later round rb who have potential to give me comparable production, whereas it would be tougher to get comparable late round production on the elite te or wr.

lynch, bush, bell, foster, and even vereen, I think, were all comparable ppg values in my league last year, and I actually think chris johnson can close in on that with expected ppr points.

I'd take lacy somewhere in the second, but i doubt i'll have that decision to make

 

[DerekR]

So you prefer Gronk, Ball, and Foster over Lacy and Aj Green? I am a huge Gronk fan but come on.. You are crazy

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

So you prefer Gronk, Ball, and Foster over Lacy and Aj Green? I am a huge Gronk fan but come on.. You are crazy

yeah, I'm a pats fan, dude --- I'd take gronk over graham

aj, I'm a little leery on just because I don't like heavy investments on coaching changes, so I'd prefer some other stud wr.

foster, you can make whatever injury speculation you want, and I can't dispute it, but i generally don't predict it, and I'm an o'brien believer on that run game (pats fan) -- I think foster probably cashes in more ppr points, and I think he's more of a focal point than lacy, but it's not like I need to make that call at 1.05

I don't know if I'll be a ball grabber, but in the abstract, why wouldn't I like ball when 90% of the argument put forth for lacy is what a great qb and offense he's got?

I just prefer the way denver uses it's backs, and they certainly weren't any less productive as an offense last year.

I was the moreno guy in my league, so last year I was talking all this #### about ball, but this year is probably his time if he's not completely terrible.

edit: let me borrow chaka's comment from the arian foster thread

Your numbers are off, he had 4 carries for 11 yards in week 7 @ KC then he got hurt. He got the start in week 8 but notched 0 carries and 0 catches on one target before exiting the game.

In his six complete games he averaged 19.5 carries/game for 88.5 yards/game with a 4.5 ypc average and 3.6 catches/game for 30.5 yards/game and 8.3 yards/reception. He only had two TDs but that has as much to do with the team offense than what he was doing and Foster was playing at a very high level.

foster was already chugging along in ppg on only 2 td --- that's what I call room for upside, not lacy's rookie year, and he's still going later, of course.

 

[unckeyherb]

first of all, I mostly look in these threads for opinion from others, but I did have a bit of an opinion of my own going in this time, as I had spent a fair amount of effort looking at green bay a couple years ago for some similar thread about starks, grant, or wtfever it was --- the conclusion I came up with is green bay is constantly throwing in the endzone, and even when they don't you get vultured by rodgers and kuhn, so the gb rb didn't really appeal to me, and I have yet to see much, if anything, contrary to that.not only wasn't lacy's production boosted by rodgers, as people like to insist based on their imaginations, it might have actually been hurt by all these great surrounding players on this historic offense crowding out his td opps.

So a big part of your concerns are based on the vulturing of Rodgers and Kuhn, stealing easy TDs that would otherwise go to Lacy. Two guys that ran for exactly 1 total TD last year. Got it. The more you post incorrect stats like his ypc and pure bs like the above, the better I feel about my expectations for Lacy.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

Thought I'd add a couple of things.

1. Last year Chase Stuart did a detailed analysis of ypc and how it's not a good indicator of future performance. Unfortunately it was in defense of Trent Richardson (lol at me as I drafted him 1.05 in dynasty startup last year, but I digress) but the analysis and information is useful, imo. There's a good bit looking at RBs who got 70% of their team's carries at a low ypc. It is an impressive list.

2. Having said that, I'm lower on Lacy and the Tier 2 group of RBs than most. My draft board looks more like Kool Aid Larry's than most others, I'm guessing. For PPR after the Big Four RBs I'm taking Graham, the Big Five WRs, Jordy Nelson, Brandon Marshall and probably Gronk before I take one of those RBs.

 

[Chaka]

So you prefer Gronk, Ball, and Foster over Lacy and Aj Green? I am a huge Gronk fan but come on.. You are crazy

yeah, I'm a pats fan, dude --- I'd take gronk over graham

aj, I'm a little leery on just because I don't like heavy investments on coaching changes, so I'd prefer some other stud wr.

foster, you can make whatever injury speculation you want, and I can't dispute it, but i generally don't predict it, and I'm an o'brien believer on that run game (pats fan) -- I think foster probably cashes in more ppr points, and I think he's more of a focal point than lacy, but it's not like I need to make that call at 1.05

I don't know if I'll be a ball grabber, but in the abstract, why wouldn't I like ball when 90% of the argument put forth for lacy is what a great qb and offense he's got?

I just prefer the way denver uses it's backs, and they certainly weren't any less productive as an offense last year.

I was the moreno guy in my league, so last year I was talking all this #### about ball, but this year is probably his time if he's not completely terrible.

edit: let me borrow chaka's comment from the arian foster thread

Your numbers are off, he had 4 carries for 11 yards in week 7 @ KC then he got hurt. He got the start in week 8 but notched 0 carries and 0 catches on one target before exiting the game.

In his six complete games he averaged 19.5 carries/game for 88.5 yards/game with a 4.5 ypc average and 3.6 catches/game for 30.5 yards/game and 8.3 yards/reception. He only had two TDs but that has as much to do with the team offense than what he was doing and Foster was playing at a very high level.

foster was already chugging along in ppg on only 2 td --- that's what I call room for upside, not lacy's rookie year, and he's still going later, of course.

Yeah Foster was fine last. However I am definitely concerned, enough to put him below Lacy, with the change in coaching staff. Kubs favored Foster in a big way and I am not sure what to expect from O'Brien.

 

[georg013]

Just wanted to come in here and say that I'm really trying to be more objective with my posts. Having said that, I don't believe Lacy is going to have a big year at all. He will likely be injured, concussed, or just flat out have a sophomore slump in 2014/2015. I have no basis for my beliefs. It's just a gut instinct. For the record, I don't own him anywhere but that isn't why I don't like him. Well, maybe if I owned him I would like him a little better but I missed out on him so he is overrated. Conversely, I do own Steven Jackson and think he is due for a breakout year. He will play all 16 and probably stick around for another 5 years (playing elite football). Again, this has nothing to do with me owning him. I just feel it. Thanks gentlemen.

 

[ourmanflint]

first of all, I mostly look in these threads for opinion from others, but I did have a bit of an opinion of my own going in this time, as I had spent a fair amount of effort looking at green bay a couple years ago for some similar thread about starks, grant, or wtfever it was --- the conclusion I came up with is green bay is constantly throwing in the endzone, and even when they don't you get vultured by rodgers and kuhn, so the gb rb didn't really appeal to me, and I have yet to see much, if anything, contrary to that.not only wasn't lacy's production boosted by rodgers, as people like to insist based on their imaginations, it might have actually been hurt by all these great surrounding players on this historic offense crowding out his td opps.

So a big part of your concerns are based on the vulturing of Rodgers and Kuhn, stealing easy TDs that would otherwise go to Lacy. Two guys that ran for exactly 1 total TD last year. Got it. The more you post incorrect stats like his ypc and pure bs like the above, the better I feel about my expectations for Lacy.

I think he had a point before last year as Rogers and Kuhn did score many of the rushing touchdowns since 2010. But last year was the first since 2009 (Ryan Grant) that the Packers have had good goal line back.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Kool-aid Larry....

Where do you have Lacy ranked and what are your projections for him?

ok, I doubt anybody is checking this thread for kool-aid larry's draft breakdown, but I'll work off ffcalc for some thumbnail opinion.

first of all, I mostly look in these threads for opinion from others, but I did have a bit of an opinion of my own going in this time, as I had spent a fair amount of effort looking at green bay a couple years ago for some similar thread about starks, grant, or wtfever it was --- the conclusion I came up with is green bay is constantly throwing in the endzone, and even when they don't you get vultured by rodgers and kuhn, so the gb rb didn't really appeal to me, and I have yet to see much, if anything, contrary to that.

not only wasn't lacy's production boosted by rodgers, as people like to insist based on their imaginations, it might have actually been hurt by all these great surrounding players on this historic offense crowding out his td opps.

I'd prefer to look at it drive by drive, but I'm not doing that again.

anyway, here are the (ppr) picks off the top of my head, as my draft is a couple weeks away and I'm still in process:

one thing I notice in this thread is a lot of true believers seem to hang their hats on volume, and I don't generally try to predict injuries, so ppg is more what i tend to look at.

LeSean McCoy

Jamaal Charles

Matt Forte

Adrian Peterson

nobody's a lock for anything, but I really don't see any reason lacy pushes past those ^^ guys.

here's more of the list in ffcalc order

Calvin Johnson

Demaryius Thomas

Jimmy Graham

Dez Bryant

DeMarco Murray

Brandon Marshall

Peyton Manning

Julio Jones

Montee Ball

Jordy Nelson

Arian Foster

Rob Gronkowski

those ^^ are probably all guys I would prefer to lacy, some of which I obviously don't need to take at 1.05, or whatever, but I just put them in there, anyway.

Eddie Lacy

A.J. Green

Marshawn Lynch

LeVeon Bell

Drew Brees

Aaron Rodgers

Antonio Brown

these guys ^^ are players of comparable value that I probably won't end up with, and probably don't have to make the decision on at 1.05

I don't think lacy is elite, and I think there are later round rb who have potential to give me comparable production, whereas it would be tougher to get comparable late round production on the elite te or wr.

lynch, bush, bell, foster, and even vereen, I think, were all comparable ppg values in my league last year, and I actually think chris johnson can close in on that with expected ppr points.

I'd take lacy somewhere in the second, but i doubt i'll have that decision to make

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Eddie Lacy rushed for 25 yards on five carries and caught two passes for 22 yards in Saturday's preseason game against the Rams.
It was Lacy's first action of the preseason after sitting out the opener. Lacy played one series before James Starks relieved him in the backfield. Lacy ran all over the Rams' first-team defense, lowering the boom on defensive backs, and accounting for 47 of the 87 yards on the opening touchdown drive. Lacy is a top-five fantasy running back. Owners need to handcuff him with Starks.

Aug 16 - 5:46 PM