rockaction
Footballguy
Nice. So quaint. Yeah...you don't know this board. And I know you now.
eta* it's called steganography. Look it up. Have fun, 'Bama guy alias guy sport guy alias sport guy.
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Anyone not like Eddie Lacy? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Eminence
- Start date
eta* it's called steganography. Look it up. Have fun, 'Bama guy alias guy sport guy alias sport guy.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
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LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Nah, man, I trust you.
Lacy is fine. He'll be RB 10 but nothing greater, IMO. He doesn't have that great of a schedule. Phi, NE and Buf to go.
I understand Buffalo, but NE and PHI have both had sieve run defenses. They are both in the bottom 10 for run yards per game given up.
I've looked at the top 15 RB options (while trying to figure out trade targets) and I personally think Lacy has the single easiest schedule left. CHI, TB, ATL, MIN in addition to the noted three games above. Those are all juicy match-ups for a RB playing with Rodgers.
Not to mention the hardest team matchups left (Phi, NE, Lions) are all at home for the Packers. Those games are unlikely to get out of hand and be high-scoring fests (like the Saints game being at the Saints). And even if some of them are high-scoring, we saw that Lacy remains an integral part of the offense.
I hope Lacy has a weak game against CHI (where maybe they get up a ton and let Starks carry it) so that he makes an easier trade target at the trade deadline (which is in 2-3 weeks in most leagues).
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John 14:6
Jesus is Lord!
Nice! Wish I could...
unckeyherb
Footballguy
Really? I don't think I'd make that trade.
shadyridr
Footballguy
why? Id much rather have lacy
Courtweeks87
Footballguy
Deepening on format in any type of ppr and honestly even standard league julio is head and shoulders more valuable than lacy.
unckeyherb
Footballguy
Julio has been trending down and Lacy is trending up. Like I said I don't make that trade but to each his own
Courtweeks87
Footballguy
It's not like lacy is setting the world on fire either. I want difference makers on my team, guys that can be number 1 scorer any week. Julio fits that bill much more than lacy does.
John 14:6
Jesus is Lord!
I've also got Murray, Bradshaw, and Ingram at RB but am weak at WR with Calvin and Gordon out (Terrence Williams, Andrew Hawkins, Andre Holmes, Mike Evans, Louis Murphy, and just picked up Martavis Bryant). I've put my RBs on the block and have been disappointed with the offers I've received: Bradshaw for LaFell and Ingram for Hopkins...
unckeyherb
Footballguy
That makes much more sense
John 14:6
Jesus is Lord!
After reading the post I sent a text to the Julio owner (my brother, who was also the one who offered me Hopkins) to see if he'd be interested. He also has AJ Green and Kevin Benjamin, with Joique Bell and McKinnon being his top RBs. I think he'd be stupid not to do it...
OK good luck stacking your team with only guys that can get #1 on any given week.
By the way, Julio only has one week where he was a top 5 WR. One. Week.
Lacy was 3rd and 5th in RB scoring his two best weeks. So you might want to re-evaluate.
Courtweeks87
Footballguy
In ppr julio also hasn't dropped below 10 points at all. Where lacy has done so a few times. I suppose if your that much of a lacy lover you really think that jordy is gonna play second fiddle to lacy from now on like there last game then by all means you can continue to look at lacy through your beer goggles. When there next game lacy is back to go his usual 13 carries for 50 yards you will be let down. Julio has a higher ceiling, floor, and is much more consistent than lacy.
Kwai Chang Caine
Footballguy
I'd sooner give up Julio for either Cobb or Lacy.jdubs952 said:
Not even an owner of Lacy anymore. I had him in 1/12 leagues and just traded him away in that one (+Tate/Joique) for Forte.Courtweeks87 said:
Of course Julio has a higher floor, but relative to what? You have to look at positional scoring. With all the RB injuries and guys not living up to their draft status, Lacy is much more valuable relative to the worst starting RB than Julio is to the worst starting WR. The worst WR3 in PPR is still scoring 13 ppg. The worst RB2 is at 11 PPG.
Julio has been at about 18.5 PPG, with a few duds and a few big games. That seems a reasonable expectation for the rest of the year. As December looms, and considering Lacy's ridiculously easy schedule (see my other posts in this thread), his very active role in the passing game (and the fact he's given up exactly zero pressures on 36 pass blocks), I expect Lacy to very clearly be in the 18+ PPG ballpark. If they are both scoring about the same, Lacy's relative value is MUCH higher, because the baseline is lower.
Lacy could score less than Julio the rest of the year and still be much more valuable. It's all about relative value of positions.
Courtweeks87
Footballguy
I'll take that argument but the whole colder weather thing. Looking back with Rodgers the packers have always stayed very pass heavy even when it gets cold. 18.5 ppg from lacy average is a little much to expect from a guy that before last week was averaging barely over 11 ppg
unckeyherb
Footballguy
Omg
John 14:6
Jesus is Lord!
I'm ready to just say "forget it" and wait for Calvin and Gordon to come back. Just keep the RB depth off other people's teams I guess...
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
packer_junkie
Footballguy
Yikes.... Might be one of those shotgun 50 short pass attempts from a Rodge type games... Hopefully 6-8 check downs
unckeyherb
Footballguy
Almost 200 yards receiving over the last 6 quarters.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
unckeyherb
Footballguy
Cause you should definitely take away plays that are against what you want.
georg013
Footballguy
Of course you can, remember when Lendale White busted that 80 yard run? It would have been foolish to suggest that was something that was going to continue to happen.
georg013
Footballguy
Cherry picking stats is just dishonest and self serving. If Lendale busted off an 80 yard run, he busted off an 80 yard run. End of story. Can't make it go away any more than you can that short run Lacy had that "could" have been taken to the house. Make your argument but don't go saying "If you take away." The minute that comes out your mouth, people know you are full of shyt.
Oh come on, that's nothing Lendale did though. Perfect Offensive play vs Perfect Defensive play.
I don't care about stat lines, it's about situation. Half this crap is luck, right guy - right game situation.
Sure, Lacey can pull off a 60 yarder but I sure won't be forecasting him for that next year or to produce in that manner for the remainder this season.
unckeyherb
Footballguy
So If the guy doesn't perform its his fault because he is slow/underused/etc. When he has a good game you should take away the big play because you can't rely on it. Most biased, disingenuous method you can have. I get it that people don't like Lacy but give me a break.
Shutout
Footballguy
bottom line is points produced. In a year of RB disasters, Lacy is a top 10 RB. See it for what it is and this becomes a lot easier.
I've got no dog in this fight, but what he's saying makes sense. If Lacy was a big play guy who broke off game changers once or twice a game, then sure, you can count on them going forward. But he isn't. He's a guy who needs to get a lot of carries, yards after contact, and push it in at the goal line. He's not doing any of those things. Last night he gets a 56 yard receiving touchdown, which just screams outlier. That's the kind of thing you can't count on going forward. To be fair, Starks isn't doing any better. The running game is just disappointing.
unckeyherb
Footballguy
Nah, points are points. If he gets shoe-stringed on a breakaway do you give him the benefit of the doubt and say 'you can't rely on a defender to always make that play, so really it should be a TD?" Of course not. Performance is performance, production is production. As good as Rodgers is I'd say 6 TDs in the first half is an outlier as well. Those 6 TDs led to the entire offense being benched shortly after halftime. Can we project that going forward? No we can't, doesn't mean it didn't happen. Who's to say that Lacy wouldn't have chewed up the clock for two more quarters if Chicago actually played like a competetve NFL team? You can't start nitpicking plays, or you can if you want. I don't care. Antonio Brown threw a TD recently. I don't project him to throw another one, but I don't delete that play from the record books either.
unckeyherb
Footballguy
You can say that about most of NFL RB's. Whats the point? Do you only get half points if the O-line blocks well or something?
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
The useage this year has been sparse. He is on pace for only 211 carries. The most encouraging thing though especially in ppr is how awesome he has been at blocking. He is arguably one of if not the best blocking RB's in the league in only his second year. This will lead to more useage in the passing game and check downs when the Packers are playing catch up. He is on pace to catch 43 balls this year, but over the last 2 weeks they have looked to get some designed screens to him and he is making the D pay. It is still going to get colder here and the Packers may rely more on the run then they have been. So far he is not hurting you but he is not exactly winning you match ups.
Shutout
Footballguy
Excellent.
We could drive ourselves crazy with "this should have happened" or "this probably won't or will". Bottom line is, like you say, points are points. If they got 'em they got 'em and if they didn't, they didn't.
I know for a fact (and this is the maddening sadness of Fantasy football for me and says a lot that I should probably quit) that I can point to three specific outlier plays (single plays) that have caused me to not win three leagues during the past two years. But you know what, it happened and that's that.
So, go with what is fact. This is a hobby/addiction, etc that is predicated on the façade of being able to control outcomes and analyze and manipulate date to your advantage and 95% of the time, that's the farthest thing from the truth. So, whatever happens on the field (when a guy gets tripped up, has a busted play, kneels on the one instead of going in, doesn't get a td because his pinkie MIGHT have moved and the refs says he didn't maintain the catch, etc) is just what happens, no matter how flukey we think it is.
