Anyone use over/under odds to determine who to start? (1 Viewer)

[Magnus_CA]

I've got three attractive matchups with one flex position to fill (Lamont vs Ari, Driver @ Mia, Moss @ Indy). I can come up with a good reason to start/sit them all. I know the breakdown per position isn't there but would I be wrong to assume a high over/under translates into (expected) increased offensive output from key players in the offense (specifically QB, RB, WR1)? You have to figure this is one of the more reliable projections available, considering the source.

Does anyone use o/u totals to set your roster when all else fails?

 

[Bri]

I did when I started playing "many moons ago" but there was no WWW then. I have looked after the games in curiousity and sometimes I think maybe I should go back to that

 

[V1LL]

I absolutely use them. Odds makers aren't far off very often.

 

[SproutDaddy]

I absolutely use them. Odds makers aren't far off very often.

 

[thecoolnamesarealltaken]

I've used over/unders and point spreads to pick between 2 defenses.

 

[Islander]

I absolutely use them. Odds makers aren't far off very often.

What's so funny? Odds makers aren't very far from the expected number of points scored. The actual result is a different thing, but when picking your lineup, since we don't know the future, we go by the expected number of points.

 

[Rynomite]

Count me as one who uses them. I actually use that as well as many other site rankings including FBG. For example, Philly is favored by 5.5 over TB with a total of 43 points. That's essentially predicting Philly will score 24 points. Compare that to Tampa predicted to score 19. From that, I would deduce that I might lean to Reggie Brown over Joey Galloway if all other things are fairly equal. This is a little counter-intuitive since TB has the better matchup for WR's acording to strength of schedule.

As another interesting note: I track how well each cheatsheet, projection, etc helps me choose players each week. Basically, if the source in question predicts a bad day or a good day for a player how well does that line up with his actual performance. Through week 6, the game's line is the best predictor by far. To me that's just wierd - but true. I'm not using it as my Bible but I am giving it more credit....

 

[delusional]

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/

kinda just answered my question i had in the assist forum...

walker or jennings

cleveland denver game...32 on the over under

think i am going with jennings

 

[barndog]

I often use o/u to choose between two equivalent players. Sometimes the o/u tells one to "play everybody!" Conversely, this week it indicates stay away from Den-Cle

me likey

 

[radballs]

I think there's more validity to using it in TD only leagues. But, in ppr leagues scoring is a relatively small part of a player's particular fantasy performance so clearly analyzing player matchups is much more important. How has the opposing team's secondary been playing against the pass and are both corners studs or only one of them? Which corner will most likely matchup against my WR most of the game? These kinds of questions and the answers to them are more important than the over/under in high performance leagues imo.

 

[Islander]

No offense to Dodds, but I always substitute his projected points allowed by defenses with the Vegas line.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I use it and I agree with some of the comments above. "vegasinsider" is one of my bookmarks.

I agree with Radballs about the PPR/performances, but for overall "feel" of the game and total points, I use it.

I look for the biggest and smallest O/U numbers. Anything over 43-45 or under 33-35 gets my attention.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

That would be 3 games this week:

Den @ Cle 32

NYG @ Dal 45

Wash @ Indy 48