Anyone weary of an LT2 dropoff?..... (1 Viewer)

[SoloMatisse]

I dont have LT2 on any teams, but Ive considered trading for him and naturally giving a whole lot to get him. But, if I were to do that, Id want to 100% convinced Tomlinson will continue his studly ways even with an unproven, inexperienced QB running the show. I went thru the Losman/McGahee situation last season, and it really stung. I wouldnt begin to compare Losman to Rivers, other than by age and lack of PT, but does anyone have thoughts on how LT2's overall production will be impacted if Rivers is unable to consistently move the O as Brees has done for the past 2 years? Brees has been solid and consistent and underappreciated. And even though Tomlinson was getting it done prior to Brees' taking over, I cant help but wonder if he'll suffer a dropoff. Opinions??

 

[Adrian Peterson]

I thought the same - but more so about Gates and a drop off.

 

[fsufan]

I thought the same - but more so about Gates and a drop off.

I am worried about Gates more than LT.

 

[Trap Play]

I am worried about Gates more than LT.

Exactly. , both of you. If anything, LT will be relied on more heavily and will run the ball more. Something Marty never seems to do enough of, when you're a LT owner anyway.

 

[Sinrman]

I'm not as worried about Gates. He strikes me as one of those very special talents that can play through that kind of adversity (new QB). If SD can draft a top OL or get another good WR, I think Rivers would actually have an excellent start to his career. He wouldn't have much of an excuse to not excel then...

 

[fruity pebbles]

LT was putting up better numbers when San Diego's passing attack wasn't clicking so well. The emergence of Brees and Gates has cut into his numbers some. A down tick in their passing efficiency may actually help him.

 

[-OZ-]

Fear the WR production. If you're counting on McCardell, you may want to rethink things.

LT and Gates will continue to be among the elite.

 

[Eraser]

Look for LT's Reception Numbers to go way up again next year!!!

E

 

[Bob Henry]

From another perspective let's keep in mind that Tomlinson has 2,044 touches in five years in the NFL. That's 400+ touches per season. Shaun Alexander is also in this elite category not just in terms of fantasy value, but talking about reliability, consistency and durability.

It's (nearly) impossible to predict injuries or how long a player can sustain those number of touches. Edgerrin James has been equally durable and consistent despite having the torn ACL and surgery that followed.

Some players like Barry Sanders or Walter Payton can go (almost) their entire career without any serious injuries, but if I were to have a concern with LT in 2006 it would be a combination of showing some signs of weakness in his armor and more defenses focusing on him. That is, until/unless Rivers makes them pay and then it's a moot point.

We've also seen several QBs sit their first couple years and then hit the ground running in a big way in recent years. I wouldn't write off Rivers just yet. Nobody really predicted Brees having the season he did in 2004 when they drafted Rivers either. If they did, they wouldn't have gone with Rivers in the draft and just locked up Brees long-term.

Chances are, LT will be just fine.. He's amazingly durable and his running style isn't like Earl Campbell or Eddie George. So, his chances of staying healthy are at least as good, or perhaps better, than the avg RB... but when you have 2,000+ touches in a five year span it seems like the other foot would almost have to fall sooner or later.

(Now I'm sure Yudkin will roll out some super cool analysis of RBs that meet this criteria then we can look more closely at whether this is a something to be concerned with or not.. I recall similar discussion re: Ricky Williams after his 400+ carry season).

 

[remote controller]

If Brees were to leave, I feel that the biggest losers would be the WR's. I feel that LT's role, and usage, would increase, as would Gates, both to help ease the load on the new young Qb.. It is hard to believe that any Qb might have trouble finding Gates.

 

[BoulderBob]

LT will have a monster season that will probably be his last, in terms of fantasy football superstar level stats.

Gates will still be solid, but I'd be weary of using a high pick on him.

WR's will be a crapshoot, the Jackson kid may get some looks due to his time with Rivers on the B sqaud.

The team will struggle to win 10 games, but then again, that can be said about any NFL team.

 

[slayer666]

From another perspective let's keep in mind that Tomlinson has 2,044 touches in five years in the NFL. That's 400+ touches per season.

I'm more concerned about the wear and tear than I am about the possibility of a young quarterback under center.

 

[Weapon of Mass Instruction]

Weary?

 

[Traders2001]

Not at all , it s good for him cause Rivers is such a bad Qb that they will have to run all day.

 

[nightshift]

You're making the leap with Rivers & Brees might still be a the helm. The ongoing FA delay has given them more to hink, maybe even more time to talk and work out an agreement.

 

[Jack Ham & Eggs]

If Brees leaves, the biggest fantasy loser will probably be Brees.

 

[SoloMatisse]

Weary?

Weary. Thanks for the instruction....and the insight.

 

[Couch Potato]

Weary?

Weary. Thanks for the instruction....and the insight.

It's wary.

 

[SoloMatisse]

Weary?

Weary. Thanks for the instruction....and the insight.

It's wary.

For god's sake you goofy English majors....look up the friggin' word "weary" already, and if its defined as 'burdened' or 'disheartened' then go away and take your dictionaries with you. Drop back in when you have something relevant to add to the conversation.....or was that 'relative'??? Get outtta here.

 

[mario8723]

LT was putting up better numbers when San Diego's passing attack wasn't clicking so well. The emergence of Brees and Gates has cut into his numbers some. A down tick in their passing efficiency may actually help him.

Agreed 100%

 

[BigRed]

"outta" only has 2 Ts. duh.



My biggest concern with LT is the same as always...."disappearing" down the stretch (for him anyway).

 

[cstu]

LT will have a monster season that will probably be his last, in terms of fantasy football superstar level stats.

Gates will still be solid, but I'd be weary of using a high pick on him.

WR's will be a crapshoot, the Jackson kid may get some looks due to his time with Rivers on the B sqaud.

The team will struggle to win 10 games, but then again, that can be said about any NFL team.

LT will only be 27 this year and hasn't had a season where he finished lower than 7th. He takes better care of his body than most RB's (took lessons from Emmitt) and hasn't had anything other than nagging injuries in his career. You might as well say Shaun Alexander is done producing "superstar level stats" since he'll be 29 this year. Any RB can't get hurt but saying he has only one superstar season left is ridiculous.

 

[BoulderBob]

LT will have a monster season that will probably be his last, in terms of fantasy football superstar level stats.

Gates will still be solid, but I'd be weary of using a high pick on him.

WR's will be a crapshoot, the Jackson kid may get some looks due to his time with Rivers on the B sqaud.

The team will struggle to win 10 games, but then again, that can be said about any NFL team.

LT will only be 27 this year and hasn't had a season where he finished lower than 7th. He takes better care of his body than most RB's (took lessons from Emmitt) and hasn't had anything other than nagging injuries in his career. You might as well say Shaun Alexander is done producing "superstar level stats" since he'll be 29 this year. Any RB can't get hurt but saying he has only one superstar season left is ridiculous.

He may be a freak of nature, but history is not on his side. RB's don't stay in their primes for long. Alexander has the best o-line in the league, he wouldn't be putting up those numbers in any other system, sans KC. 27 is approaching old age in the career of the average RB. Nevertheless, advances in nutrition and weightlifting may change some of the averages over the next twenty years or so.

 

[cstu]

LT will have a monster season that will probably be his last, in terms of fantasy football superstar level stats.

Gates will still be solid, but I'd be weary of using a high pick on him.

WR's will be a crapshoot, the Jackson kid may get some looks due to his time with Rivers on the B sqaud.

The team will struggle to win 10 games, but then again, that can be said about any NFL team.

LT will only be 27 this year and hasn't had a season where he finished lower than 7th. He takes better care of his body than most RB's (took lessons from Emmitt) and hasn't had anything other than nagging injuries in his career. You might as well say Shaun Alexander is done producing "superstar level stats" since he'll be 29 this year. Any RB can't get hurt but saying he has only one superstar season left is ridiculous.

He may be a freak of nature, but history is not on his side. RB's don't stay in their primes for long. Alexander has the best o-line in the league, he wouldn't be putting up those numbers in any other system, sans KC. 27 is approaching old age in the career of the average RB. Nevertheless, advances in nutrition and weightlifting may change some of the averages over the next twenty years or so.

There's no question that his time as an elite RB is coming to an end. Of the top 100 fantasy seasons by a RB only 10 of them are by RB's 29 and older. However if I would to pick a guy to be one to do it, then I'd pick LT. My guess is that he has a minimum of two years left as a top 5 back and maybe another two or three after that where he's around the top 10. Five more solid years aren't out of the question.

 

[fruity pebbles]

LT will have a monster season that will probably be his last, in terms of fantasy football superstar level stats.

Gates will still be solid, but I'd be weary of using a high pick on him.

WR's will be a crapshoot, the Jackson kid may get some looks due to his time with Rivers on the B sqaud.

The team will struggle to win 10 games, but then again, that can be said about any NFL team.

LT will only be 27 this year and hasn't had a season where he finished lower than 7th. He takes better care of his body than most RB's (took lessons from Emmitt) and hasn't had anything other than nagging injuries in his career. You might as well say Shaun Alexander is done producing "superstar level stats" since he'll be 29 this year. Any RB can't get hurt but saying he has only one superstar season left is ridiculous.

He may be a freak of nature, but history is not on his side. RB's don't stay in their primes for long. Alexander has the best o-line in the league, he wouldn't be putting up those numbers in any other system, sans KC. 27 is approaching old age in the career of the average RB. Nevertheless, advances in nutrition and weightlifting may change some of the averages over the next twenty years or so.

Seems like he's been in the league forever, but he's the same age as Larry Johnson, Brian Westbrook, and Rudi Johnson and only two years older than the recent rookies Ronnie Brown and Julius Jones.

 

[slayer666]

he's the same age as Larry Johnson, Brian Westbrook, and Rudi Johnson

LT has almost as many touches as LJ, Westbrook and RJ combined.

 

[fruity pebbles]

he's the same age as Larry Johnson, Brian Westbrook, and Rudi Johnson

LT has almost as many touches as LJ, Westbrook and RJ combined.

I haven't seen anything that shows that touches mean nearly as much as age. The going argument for awhile was that Holmes would be able to play well into his thirties because he got the starting job so late in his career. Nope....he dropped off at 31-32 just like everyone else.

 

[lovestolaugh]

Weary?

Weary. Thanks for the instruction....and the insight.

It's wary.

war·y (wâr'ē) adj.,

On guard; watchful: taught to be wary of strangers.

weary adj.,

Definition: tired

v

Definition: make tired

DOES IT MATTER ALL THAT MUCH. SAME PILE OF SHH--~!

What is the point of making a point of pointing it out - trying to make a point?

OUCH!!

 

[Couch Potato]

DOES IT MATTER ALL THAT MUCH. SAME PILE OF SHH--~!

You're right, it doesn't matter at all. Sorry, SoloMatisse

(*deleting my post*)

 

[Portis 26]

The relationship between the quality of a QB and his RB's output is a fascinating topic. While there are plenty of examples of superb QBs and RBs playing together and both putting up great numbers (Warner and Faulk, Montana and Craig, Elway and TD, Aikman and Smith) there are also a lot of examples of absolutely useless QBs playing with great HBs who put up enormous numbers because the entire offense is focused on them (Dallas QBs in the 80s with Herschel Walker, Jamal Lewis with various Ravens QBs etc)

 

[zamboni]

LT has produced big time with Flutie and Brees at the helm, and you have to think he'd do the same with Rivers.

He's just that good, end of story.

 

[bumpman]

he's the same age as Larry Johnson, Brian Westbrook, and Rudi Johnson

LT has almost as many touches as LJ, Westbrook and RJ combined.

I haven't seen anything that shows that touches mean nearly as much as age. The going argument for awhile was that Holmes would be able to play well into his thirties because he got the starting job so late in his career. Nope....he dropped off at 31-32 just like everyone else.

Guys who carry heavy loads early in their careers seem to be breaking down earlier as well: Ahman, Jamal Lewis, Terrell Davis

 

[SoloMatisse]

LT has produced big time with Flutie and Brees at the helm, and you have to think he'd do the same with Rivers.

He's just that good, end of story.

I tend to lean this way strongly as well. You just never know when a QB with zero experience takes over. LT2 is smack in the middle of his prime though, so he should continue to get it done.

 

[Baracuda]

Worry about LT? Maybe you're right, but then you should probably worry about EVERY fantasy player. And also never fly on airplanes because they might crash.

 

[SoloMatisse]

Worry about LT?  Maybe you're right, but then you should probably worry about EVERY fantasy player.  And also never fly on airplanes because they might crash.

hate planes, and not really worried about anyone, but just want opinions in case I get that #1 draft position next year, and have to make the tough call between LT2, LJ, and Alexander. You can never have enough information or hear enough opinions. I take that back...some opinions are downright worthless.

 

[cstu]

Worry about LT? Maybe you're right, but then you should probably worry about EVERY fantasy player. And also never fly on airplanes because they might crash.

hate planes, and not really worried about anyone, but just want opinions in case I get that #1 draft position next year, and have to make the tough call between LT2, LJ, and Alexander. You can never have enough information or hear enough opinions. I take that back...some opinions are downright worthless.

Even though I think LT is the league's best RB, I would be hard-pressed to draft him over LJ and SA if the OL's stay the same for all three teams.

 

[aussiehockeyfan]

If Priest Holmes retires, it's really a no contest. If he hangs around, then it gets difficult choosing between LT and Alexander.

 

[nygiants56]

If Brees leaves, the biggest fantasy loser will probably be Brees.

depends on where he goes,really..if he ends up in detroit with those wr's and Martz coaching, that is a golden spot for him..even miami, who's OC Mike Mularkey loves to throw the ball around. they already have a great up-n-coming rb in Ron Brown along with Chris Chambers at WR and Randy McMichael at TE...so he certainly has some good players to work with if he oges there.if he ends up with NYJ, he's a huge fantasy bust for sure..then again, anyone would be..

lol

 

[Sabertooth]

LT2 has had his 15 minutes....he'll start to fade now just like most back do after getting the rock as much as he has in the past few seasons.

 

[Loopdog]

I for one think that Rivers will be BETTER than Brees was

I may be in the minority here but I just think he's more physically gifted and I have watched a TON of SD the past few seasons and Brees is a solid QB, but I really dont see him taking anyone deep into the playoffs.

Thats just me, but I think Rivers provides more upside to the team as a whole.

He was a bigtime winner at NC State and I think its time to see what you've got

Loop

 

[Davej626]

LT2 has had his 15 minutes....he'll start to fade now just like most back do after getting the rock as much as he has in the past few seasons.

ARe you kidding me? I swear we hear this every offseason without any proof. And for the last several years, LT has smoked the rest of the rbs. Alex being the exception this year. Man, what are you drinking?

 

[Sabertooth]

Without any proof.

Terrell Davis...there is proof.

He smokes who? Larry Johnson? Shaun Alexander?

A few yours back, LT2 was Edge. FWIW. Nothing is forever.

 

[Davej626]

Without any proof.

Terrell Davis...there is proof.

He smokes who? Larry Johnson? Shaun Alexander?

A few yours back, LT2 was Edge. FWIW. Nothing is forever.

TD is your proof? Thats like suggesting that LT is going to retire next month and point to Barry Sanders as proof. Can it happen? Of course. Is it likely? No. LT has been a workhorse since he came in. Every year someone will stand up and say "He's done." and every year, that person is wrong. Congrads on being the person this year.In my first note, I said that Alex was better than LT this year. LJ had a better per game, but started out behind Priest and only came in as a top ten back. Next year could be different, or according to you, he could be done as well. After all, thats what happened to Terrell Davis...

 

[Bob Henry]

I for one think that Rivers will be BETTER than Brees was

I may be in the minority here but I just think he's more physically gifted and I have watched a TON of SD the past few seasons and Brees is a solid QB, but I really dont see him taking anyone deep into the playoffs.

Thats just me, but I think Rivers provides more upside to the team as a whole.

He was a bigtime winner at NC State and I think its time to see what you've got

Loop

Your thoughts may prove to be on target. I also liked Rivers a lot coming out of college and I still think he could be a very good QB. He seemed to have "IT". There were a lot of similar concerns with Carson Palmer going into his 2nd season. Same with Culpepper. Having Gates and Tomlinson certainly makes his job easier, but until he is standing in the headlights like a deer.. we don't know what to really expect.

 

[Sabertooth]

Without any proof. 

Terrell Davis...there is proof. 

He smokes who?  Larry Johnson?  Shaun Alexander? 

A few yours back, LT2 was Edge.  FWIW.  Nothing is forever.

TD is your proof? Thats like suggesting that LT is going to retire next month and point to Barry Sanders as proof. Can it happen? Of course. Is it likely? No. LT has been a workhorse since he came in. Every year someone will stand up and say "He's done." and every year, that person is wrong. Congrads on being the person this year.In my first note, I said that Alex was better than LT this year. LJ had a better per game, but started out behind Priest and only came in as a top ten back. Next year could be different, or according to you, he could be done as well. After all, thats what happened to Terrell Davis...

Wow, LT dyasty owner perhaps? Taking this a little personal aren't we? LT2 finished as the 4th best back last season with a 4.3 yard average. The thing that props him up are his touchdowns. Touchdown are volatile. As far as the TD comment, you asked and I responded. TD was better than LT2 in his day and his day didn't last long. And even before he got hurt, there was speculation about his workload being too heavy. I just though of one example.

I am not saying LT2 is going to retire, but the question in this thread was "Anyone weary of an LT2 dropoff?....." Look at his number even from last season? He had 1 good game after the bye week and was bottled up on a consistent basis. Weary of a dropoff? Damn straight I am.

 

[Synthesizer]

Touchdown are volatile.

I disagree with this statement.... when talking about stud RBs like Tomlinson. "Volatile" could be used to describe someone who is scoring between 4 and 12 TDs per year, but I wouldn't use it to describe someone who has scored 15, 17, 18, and 20 TDs the last 4 years. He's averaging over 1 TD per game for the past 50 games he's played, and I would bet he will continue that pace next season too.

 

[Velcro]

Of the top 100 fantasy seasons by a RB only 10 of them are by RB's 29 and older.

Is this a real stat, because if it is, that's actually a lot. When you consider the number of RB's that are over 29 now, the fact that the "old" RB's have 10% of the 100 best seasons is impressive, and perhaps brings into doubt the assumption regarding the useful lives of RB's

 

[Bears_Man2]

Brees/Rivers, there's still no other RB team combo I'd rather own than LT2 and Michael Turner. And it's a combo that's really attainable.

I'd say even those that paid a higher price of getting the Priest/LJ combo last year are happy campers.

 

[cstu]

Without any proof.

Terrell Davis...there is proof.

He smokes who? Larry Johnson? Shaun Alexander?

A few yours back, LT2 was Edge. FWIW. Nothing is forever.

TD is your proof? Thats like suggesting that LT is going to retire next month and point to Barry Sanders as proof. Can it happen? Of course. Is it likely? No. LT has been a workhorse since he came in. Every year someone will stand up and say "He's done." and every year, that person is wrong. Congrads on being the person this year.In my first note, I said that Alex was better than LT this year. LJ had a better per game, but started out behind Priest and only came in as a top ten back. Next year could be different, or according to you, he could be done as well. After all, thats what happened to Terrell Davis...

Wow, LT dyasty owner perhaps? Taking this a little personal aren't we? LT2 finished as the 4th best back last season with a 4.3 yard average. The thing that props him up are his touchdowns. Touchdown are volatile. As far as the TD comment, you asked and I responded. TD was better than LT2 in his day and his day didn't last long. And even before he got hurt, there was speculation about his workload being too heavy. I just though of one example.

I am not saying LT2 is going to retire, but the question in this thread was "Anyone weary of an LT2 dropoff?....." Look at his number even from last season? He had 1 good game after the bye week and was bottled up on a consistent basis. Weary of a dropoff? Damn straight I am.

Two things contributed to LT's poor second half:1) The Chargers lost starting LT Roman Oben in week 8 and they had to start Leander Jordan at LT. The position is one of the primary concerns for the Chargers and will be addressed in free agency or the draft.

2) In week 13, the Raiders' LB Danny Clark dug his knuckles into LT's chest during a pile up and LT was not healthy the rest of the season.

http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2005/12/25..._5412_24_05.txt

Maybe if you looked past the numbers and knew something about the situation you wouldn't be "weary" of a dropoff.

 

[cstu]

Of the top 100 fantasy seasons by a RB only 10 of them are by RB's 29 and older.

Is this a real stat, because if it is, that's actually a lot. When you consider the number of RB's that are over 29 now, the fact that the "old" RB's have 10% of the 100 best seasons is impressive, and perhaps brings into doubt the assumption regarding the useful lives of RB's

Real stat from the Historical Data Dominator:

1	(#2) Priest Holmes	rb	2003	30	320	1420	4.44	27	373.002  (#3) Priest Holmes	rb	2002	29	313	1615	5.16	21	372.703  (#15) Barry Sanders	rb	1997	29	335	2053	6.13	11	319.804  (#22) Jim Brown	rb	1965	29	289	1544	5.34	17	313.205  (#31) Tiki Barber	rb	2005	30	357	1860	5.21	9	305.006  (#34) Tiki Barber	rb	2004	29	322	1518	4.71	13	299.607  (#50) John Riggins	rb	1983	34	375	1347	3.59	24	281.608  (#55) Curtis Martin	rb	2004	31	371	1697	4.57	12	278.209  (#68) Walter Payton	rb	1984	30  381	1684	4.42	11	271.2010  (#71)  Walter Payton	rb	1985	31	324	1551	4.79	9	269.40

The fantasy points cutoff for the top 100 rushing seasons is 257.90.